Sunday notes: Jets playing 'Moneyball'

[eboozer]

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york-jets/post/_/id/37190/sunday-notes-jets-playing-moneyball


Thoughts and observations on the New York Jets:

1. Penny pinchers: For those not happy with John Idzik's conservative approach to free agency... well, you may not want to read this. It will raise your ire to a new level.




GM John Idzik has a new style this offseason: less spending, more scouting.
Right now, the Jets have the lowest cash payroll in the NFL -- $86.1 million, according to overthecap.com. We're not talking cap dollars, we're talking actual cash spending for 2014. They're $50 million under the top-spending team, the Baltimore Ravens. The paltry number makes the Jets seem like the New York Mets of the NFL.

In 14 months, Idzik has systematically dumped many of the highest salaries. Their once-top-heavy cap has thinned to the point where only three players have cap charges of at least $7 million -- D'Brickashaw Ferguson ($11.7 million), Nick Mangold ($7.2 million) and David Harris ($7 million). It's telling that the fourth- and fifth-highest cap numbers belong to players no longer on the roster -- Antonio Cromartie ($5.5 million) and Mark Sanchez ($4.8 million).

The Jets flirted with several big-name free agents (Jared Allen, DeMarcus Ware, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie), but missed out, in part, because they failed to show them the money. (Pardon the Jerry Maguire-ism.) What conclusions can be drawn? Either the Jets are cheap or Idzik is budgeting for the future. It's probably more of the latter. Know this: Starting this year, teams are required to spend at least 89 percent of the cap in cash over a four-year period. It looks like the Jets will have some catching up to do in future years.

2. DeSean update: Unless they pull a 180, the Jets won't be a factor in the DeSean Jackson sweepstakes -- a smart move. He's not a fit for them. They held internal discussions on Jackson, with offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg giving his blessing. Mornhinweg, who coached him with the Philadelphia Eagles, told people in the organization that Jackson -- known for his bad-boy reputation -- wouldn't be a problem in the locker room. That apparently wasn't enough to sway Idzik, who reportedly hadn't reached out to Jackson's agent as of Saturday. Jackson is scheduled to visit Monday with the Washington Redskins. The Oakland Raiders might be interested as well.

3. On the road again: Idzik has popped up at a number of the high-profile pro days, most recently the Johnny Manziel extravaganza at Texas A&M. He's taking more scouting trips than he did last offseason, when he was new on the job and felt obligated to work from the office as he familiarized himself with the operation and the staff.

4. For Pete's sake: I caught up with Seattle Seahawks coach Pete Carroll at the league meetings and asked for a scouting report on right tackle Breno Giacomini, who left the Super Bowl champions to sign with the Jets. Carroll: "Great competitor. Really fierce. A really smart player. Tough. Great finisher. Physical. He's legit. We hated losing Breno. We would've liked to (have kept him), but we couldn't do it. We had no intention of wanting to lose him, but he's one of the guys we had to transition out of the organization. He's worth it (for the Jets). He got paid well and he deserves it."

Translation: We liked him, but not at four years, $18 million.

5. Cro is for the birds: With All-Pro cornerback Patrick Peterson locking down one side of the field, Arizona Cardinals coach Bruce Arians expects opponents to attack former Jet Antonio Cromartie -- and he's just fine with that.

"I love the fact that there's going to be a lot of balls thrown at him, because I didn't throw that many when I was playing against him," Arians said at the league meetings, expressing confidence in Cromartie's coverage ability.

He'll rue that statement if Cromartie doesn't cover better than he did last season.

6. Sleeper with speed: It was overshadowed by the Jackson news and the Sanchez signing, but the Jets picked up an interesting player Friday -- cornerback Jeremy Reeves. After a four-year career at Iowa State, where he intercepted five passes (two returned for touchdowns), Reeves was eligible for the 2013 draft. But he tore a pectoral muscle, missed his pro day, wasn't drafted and wasn't signed by anyone. After working out on his own for a year, he participated in Iowa State's pro day last week and burned the 40 in 4.29 seconds, according to school officials.

He's only 5-7, 167 pounds (picture Darren Sproles at corner), but that kind of speed -- even if not totally accurate -- turns heads. The Jets have a good feel for Reeves because Jeff Bauer, the director of college scouting, is an Iowa State alum, plugged into the Iowa scene.

7. Flying with the Eagles: Former Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez (it feels weird typing that) made a good point in his introductory news conference in Philadelphia: He believes he could thrive in Chip Kelly's up-tempo offense because of past success in the hurry-up. Sanchez was at his best in two-minute situations, when he didn't have to read the entire field and was required to make quick decisions. So maybe there's hope for him in Philly. On the other hand, his career record against NFC teams isn't sterling -- 10 touchdown passes, 21 interceptions.

8. Reality star: Eric Decker's reality show -- "Eric and Jessie: Game On" -- kicks off its second season Sunday night. (Jessie is his wife, a country-music singer, in case you didn't know.) I asked Rex Ryan if he's worried the show could become a distraction for his new wide receiver. He laughed, but his answer was no. Ryan said the show never came up in conversation with Decker prior to him signing.

9. More teams, wealthier coaches: Ryan is in favor of expanding the playoff field. "Absolutely," he said. "When you look at the fact that bonuses are probably tied into it, absolutely." He laughed, but he wasn't joking. In his new contract extension, Ryan can trigger incentive bonuses for 2016 with playoff wins.

10. Changing times: The Jets have 12 draft picks. In Ryan's first three seasons (2009 to 2011), with Mike Tannenbaum as the GM, they had a total of 13.

[dbatesman]

oh great moneyball soon well have a computer coaching the team i mean

[Larz]

 Either the Jets are cheap or Idzik is budgeting for the future. It's probably more of the latter.

 

 

idzik !!!!!!

[SayNoToDMC]

Except the Mets don't carry over their cap and aren't required to eventually spend it

[Gastineau Lives]

Except the Mets don't carry over their cap and aren't required to eventually spend it

 

DRUNKEN SAILOR

[T0mShane]

Can't wait to traid Carlos Peña.

[Phoenix_Jet]

Idzik waiting till Brady to retire before he gets serious.  Give him about 3 years.

[stoicsentry]

So Idzik's philosophy is to spend efficiently and never overpay. The way he's going to accomplish this is putting off almost every deal, until he ends up in a situation where he is forced to spend $50 million in a single offseason. Doesn't sound like a very sound strategy.

[eboozer]

Idzik waiting till Brady to retire before he gets serious.  Give him about 3 years.

This. Where I think it is every Jets fans desire to keep Brady from the playoffs, as often as humanly possible. I would love to see his image as an all-time great tarnished and go out never winning a SB after the cheating scandal.

[Gastineau Lives]

So Idzik's philosophy is to spend efficiently and never overpay. The way he's going to accomplish this is putting off almost every deal, until he ends up in a situation where he is forced to spend $50 million in a single offseason. Doesn't sound like a very sound strategy.

 

That's because you're no seeing the best part. The best part is that there will be no other teams interested in players he wants and no other teams that are in a similar cap/cash situation.

[Larz]

So Idzik's philosophy is to spend efficiently and never overpay. The way he's going to accomplish this is putting off almost every deal, until he ends up in a situation where he is forced to spend $50 million in a single offseason. Doesn't sound like a very sound strategy.

 

 

That's because you're no seeing the best part. The best part is that there will be no other teams interested in players he wants and no other teams that are in a similar cap/cash situation.

 

 

its march 30th.  

[j4jets]

So Idzik's philosophy is to spend efficiently and never overpay. The way he's going to accomplish this is putting off almost every deal, until he ends up in a situation where he is forced to spend $50 million in a single offseason. Doesn't sound like a very sound strategy.

 

50 MIl in spending is very common. Very common. in 2008, Jets paid about $9mil in cash to Faneca, about 22 mil in cash to Pace (signing bonus of $21mil), about 7 mil to D. Woody, and almost $10mil to Kris Jenkins. Favre received $12mil. If my math is correct, thats about $60 mil in cash spending. They were all FAs or trades. Jets have some in house new contract candidates (Mo, Big Snacks, Kerley, Harris) before even looking at FAs/Trades. 

 

Does anyone here think money is a concern with Woody? If you answered yes, then do u really know what you're talking about?

[Drums]

What's the definition of insanity again?  All I know is this is a new approach for us and we aren't used to it but I like that, because refresh my memory-- how many super bowls have we won in recent times? 

 

I will be right there with the people already freaking out if in a few years we haven't improved but I've been dying for us to develop our OWN players instead of picking up other people's finds.  

[SayNoToDMC]

50 MIl in spending is very common. Very common. in 2008, Jets paid about $9mil in cash to Faneca, about 22 mil in cash to Pace (signing bonus of $21mil), about 7 mil to D. Woody, and almost $10mil to Kris Jenkins. Favre received $12mil. If my math is correct, thats about $60 mil in cash spending. They were all FAs or trades. Jets have some in house new contract candidates (Mo, Big Snacks, Kerley, Harris) before even looking at FAs/Trades.

Does anyone here think money is a concern with Woody? If you answered yes, then do u really know what you're talking about?

Woody wants to spend it cause he's a winner, Idzik won't tell him which mattress it's hidden in

[joewilly12]

Woody wants to spend it cause he's a winner, Idzik won't tell him which mattress it's hidden in

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KFrib1GEWOg

[#27TheDominator]

What's the definition of insanity again?  All I know is this is a new approach for us and we aren't used to it but I like that, because refresh my memory-- how many super bowls have we won in recent times? 

 

I will be right there with the people already freaking out if in a few years we haven't improved but I've been dying for us to develop our OWN players instead of picking up other people's finds.  

 

Freaking out in a few years is fine.  Even a few months, but before April? 

[Matt39]

50 MIl in spending is very common. Very common. in 2008, Jets paid about $9mil in cash to Faneca, about 22 mil in cash to Pace (signing bonus of $21mil), about 7 mil to D. Woody, and almost $10mil to Kris Jenkins. Favre received $12mil. If my math is correct, thats about $60 mil in cash spending. They were all FAs or trades. Jets have some in house new contract candidates (Mo, Big Snacks, Kerley, Harris) before even looking at FAs/Trades. 

 

Does anyone here think money is a concern with Woody? If you answered yes, then do u really know what you're talking about?

 

They went nuts in FA because their drafts sucked. They traded for Jenkins.

[Sperm Edwards]

Freaking out in a few years is fine.  Even a few months, but before April? 

 

It's come down to this.  These same people complaining are the same ones who, at the end of the Tannenbaum era, would have said they agree we need to build the team through the draft.  

 

Then it comes time for the plan to go into effect.  Apparently their idea of building through the draft means you get one draft class to find 7 instant starters.  Ones who area above-average NFL starters as rookies.  Absent that, the plan must be abandoned and go back to the Tannenbaum method.  A method, I might add, that relies heavily on stupid luck.  A top-heavy roster can't afford any injuries.  We were remarkably injury-free in 2009 and 2010.  But once starters get injured or when their careers start heading south, and the team doesn't have the requisite depth to stay in the hunt, we suck in a hurry.  This is due to both the lack of draft picks, since they were traded away, and the lack of mid-level veterans, since they couldn't be afforded.  The one key to our team that got injured also resulted in the other piece of ridiculous luck, which was when Jenkins went down and Pouha did such a great job filling in.  Pouha wasn't the player a healthy Kris Jenkins was, but if he was little more than than the Pouha of 2005-2007, the Jets don't make the playoffs either year no matter how much we invested in costly veterans.

 

I've seen so many Jets seasons end in failure, and I've wanted them to truly build through the draft (and to do a good job of drafting), that I'm happy it's finally here.  If it builds a team with a rock-solid core that can sustain losing (or missing out on) high-priced talent, I can wait another year.  I prefer less time, but the team had literally dozens of holes to fill from the starters and depth behind them.

 

Last thing I want to see the team do is again go balls deep on a QB who may suck.  Just to make the playoffs? Big deal.  Really -- big freaking deal.  Get a QB and then you have the flexibility to do what you want to when you need it.  Core players who you're confident will be productive for another 4-5 years minimum are fine FA investments.  So are FAs who are cheap because there's no pressure to play a $6M RT just because he's locked in at top-5 starter money for the next 3 seasons.  If you're not getting a beast of a guard, keep bringing back Willie Colon on 1-year deals (or someone similar).  You want him replaced, and a $2M year-to-year player is ideal for that.  In the meantime, he's at least a legitimate NFL starter.  Also less likely for a veteran to get lazy when he only gets re-upped on short-term contracts.

 

This team needed a minimum of 2 years' worth of draft classes before they start looking at finishing pieces.  And just because there are 2 successful draft classes doesn't mean problems are solved.  Draft picks take time to grow from college players to NFL players.  When it happens, though, you've got something.  As long as you have a QB, that is.  Then you don't need to go "all in" for a 1-2 season window.  You're in every year because you're in every year, no matter who you get or don't get in the draft or free agency.

 

First step is building a core through the draft.  I've waited this long already another year or two is nothing.  What I can't deal with is again pissing away the team's flexibility chasing after the 5th-6th seed slot.

[Sperm Edwards]

Crap I did it again.  I meant to do a 3-sentence reply.  

 

Ask EY what it says about me.  Probably nothing good.

[Jolot]

Crap I did it again. I meant to do a 3-sentence reply.

Ask EY what it says about me. Probably nothing good.

type all night.. It was great reading and I agree a thousand percent

[Larz]

Crap I did it again.  I meant to do a 3-sentence reply.  

 

Ask EY what it says about me.  Probably nothing good.

 

i'm impressed you care enough to punctuate and capitalize correctly.  I only correct spelling if that damn red line shows up

 

oh, and preach on brother

[Phoenix_Jet]

Just brought in Mulder, Hudson & Zito.

[ZachEY]

Crap I did it again. I meant to do a 3-sentence reply.

Ask EY what it says about me. Probably nothing good.

Symbolic Penis, of course.

[Sperm Edwards]

Symbolic Penis, of course.

 

When I get more uniformity in analysts saying this, than dentists recommending sugarless gum to their patients who chew gum, it leads me to believe one of two things:  1. The diagnosis is correct; or 2. A higher percentage of dentists need to recommend their gum-chewing patients go sugarless.

[Bleedin Green]

Crap I did it again.  I meant to do a 3-sentence reply.  

 

Ask EY what it says about me.  Probably nothing good.

 

I've always found it charming.

[Freemanm]

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york-jets/post/_/id/37190/sunday-notes-jets-playing-moneyball

Flying with the Eagles: Former Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez (it feels weird typing that) made a good point in his introductory news conference in Philadelphia: He believes he could thrive in Chip Kelly's up-tempo offense because of past success in the hurry-up. Sanchez was at his best in two-minute situations, when he didn't have to read the entire field and was required to make quick decisions. So maybe there's hope for him in Philly. On the other hand, his career record against NFC teams isn't sterling -- 10 touchdown passes, 21 interceptions.

 

First of all, at least Sanchez can admit it. He thrives in a system in which he doesn't have to scan the field for the 2, 3 or 4 options when his primary is covered, doesn't have to throw the ball downfield or successfully scramble to avoid a sack. IF he ends up starting, which is a big ?, then very best of luck to the Eagles next season.

[Gastineau Lives]

"On the other hand, his career record against NFC teams isn't sterling -- 10 touchdown passes, 21 interceptions."

 

 

You know, because of the DH and all that.

[j4jets]

They went nuts in FA because their drafts sucked. They traded for Jenkins.

That and they had cap space. Jet draft haven't sucked lately n they'll still have cap space. Always a good sign. N I know Jenks was traded for. So was Favre.

[Integrity28]

 

 

BRAINTRUST!!!

[SenorGato]

I like the emphasis on scouting and the draft, and I like that they've chased after every former elite on the market. I was surprised at the deals guys like Ware and Allen got, another sign that owners are absolutely rolling in money right now just from the NFL. Those deals were definitely more than Idzik wanted to pay, duh, and I really don't care to add those guys to the roster at those prices either (OTOH not against them getting paid so g'luck to them on their new teams). DRC was the prime-ish aged guy who just chose another team, but he's not SO good where it's a major loss. Sucks about Revis, a prime aged elite at a position for need, but obviously that just couldn't happen for so many reasons. 

 

At least they got the top guy in an area they needed to get the top guy at. I really appreciate the Decker pickup, even if he and his wife are doing it for the NY attention. I'll appreciate it more after the draft, hopefully.