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Vexing math: Jets have 7 draft needs, but only 6 picks ~ ~ ~


kelly

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We're just about halfway between the start of free agency and the draft, which means teams are transitioning into full draft mode. The New York Jets have fewer draft needs because of their work in free agency -- six new players, including two projected starters -- but they're far from finished.

An updated look at their most pressing needs as we head toward April 28, keeping in mind they have only six picks :

1. Outside linebacker: Sheldon Richardson finished last season as one of the two starters on the outside, but he will return to his roots on the defensive line, according to Todd Bowles. The Jets are hoping Lorenzo Mauldin, in his second season, can nail down one starting job. The other? It's wide open, especially with graybeard free agent Calvin Pace not likely to return. It wouldn't surprise anyone if they pick an outside 'backer in the first round, with Georgia's Leonard Floyd among the possibilities.

2. Offensive tackle: Left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson, 32, is on shaky ground, in part, because of an unwieldy contract. Right tackle Breno Giacomini, 30, is coming off a mediocre year. The Jets don't have anyone in the pipeline ready to step in at either spot, so this becomes a priority position. They sniffed around the free-agent market but signed no one. If the value is there, they could pick a tackle in the first round, making Ferguson or Giacomini expendable.

3. Inside linebacker: They lost Demario Davis, re-signed Erin Hendersonand added Bruce Carter, but Henderson and Carter are only short-term fixes.David Harris, 32, can't play forever. The Jets are OK for 2016, but they need to think about the future. If Alabama's Reggie Ragland slips to the 20th pick, they could address the future in the present.

4. Tight end: Isn't this position on the list every year? There's no shortage of bodies, even after cutting Jeff Cumberland, but no one excites from a receiving standpoint. Former second-round pick Jace Amaro returns from shoulder surgery, but you get the impression the organization isn't convinced he's the answer. The Jets won't reach if the value isn't there because, as we saw last season, offensive coordinator Chan Gailey can operate a passing offense without a tight end.

5. Cornerback: Buster Skrine will get first dibs at Antonio Cromartie's old starting job, with Marcus Williams the likely No. 3 corner. They can get by with a Skrine-Williams-Darrelle Revis troika, but let's not forget that Revis, coming off wrist surgery, will be 31 for the season. It would be a mild surprise if they went corner in the first round, but it can't be discounted after that because of the importance of quality corner play in Bowles' system.

6. Quarterback: The Ryan Fitzpatrick situation probably won't have a huge impact on how they approach the draft. If they don't re-sign him, they'll replace him with another veteran. Either way, general manager Mike Maccagnan will be on the lookout for quarterback of the future. They have an intriguing project inBryce Petty, but he's not considered a sure thing. Memphis' Paxton Lynch and Penn State's Christian Hackenberg have emerged as the early leaders on the Jets' watch list.

7. Right guard: Brian Winters made some strides last season, but it's still an area that can be upgraded. Maccagnan will be looking for future starters in the middle rounds.

>     http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york-jets/post/_/id/59449/vexing-math-jets-have-seven-draft-needs-but-only-six-picks

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1 minute ago, Warfish said:

Tight End is not a need.

Amaro is fine.  A Blocking TE can be found in FA later in the year if needed.

We don't use the position much anyway.

So guess we have 6 needs and 6 picks after all.

And a GM who doesn't draft for need anyways.  Pointless article.

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It's only vexing math if one attributes the simpleton idea that draft picks are all used to adequately fill an immediate need (or immediate desire for upgrade), as though all rookies are start-worthy in the first place. After the first few rounds, statistically a team is more likely to fill a hole sooner in free agency or a high draft pick the following season than with a mid-late round draft pick filled in the current season.

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23 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

It's only vexing math if one attributes the simpleton idea that draft picks are all used to adequately fill an immediate need (or immediate desire for upgrade), as though all rookies are start-worthy in the first place. After the first few rounds, statistically a team is more likely to fill a hole sooner in free agency or a high draft pick the following season than with a mid-late round draft pick filled in the current season.

It's only that much more amusing when you consider that it's even mentioning positions that are admitted to currently being addressed, in terms of both starters and depth, such as ILB and CB.  If the basis for this list is every position that would ideally be upgraded in the next few years, that would nearly be every position for every team.

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Also think ILB could be drafted and is a need from a depth/long-term standpoint, but with Harris, Henderson, and Carter it's really not a need this year.

Quarterback is one of those needs that applies in round 1 or maybe 2 but not really after. Draft someone if you love them but otherwise Petty is your long-term long-shot developmental guy.

On the flip side, you could list tackle twice. And there's a bunch of other positions they could go after for one reason or another (depth/development at center, upgrade at #3 WR, wouldn't rule out a defensive lineman although they've done a good job building depth there in FA, they've been poking around safeties, etc)

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1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Tight End is not a need.

Amaro is fine.  A Blocking TE can be found in FA later in the year if needed.

We don't use the position much anyway.

So guess we have 6 needs and 6 picks after all.

Every other team has the exact number of picks and needs. Woe is the Jets!

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1 hour ago, Bleedin Green said:

It's only that much more amusing when you consider that it's even mentioning positions that are admitted to currently being addressed, in terms of both starters and depth, such as ILB and CB.  If the basis for this list is every position that would ideally be upgraded in the next few years, that would nearly be every position for every team.

ts;dr

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Wouldnt say the Jets have 7 draft needs. I would say 3, maybe 4 and thats a stretch. 

 

OT, QB, LB, maybe TE. 

Some state that Amaro makes the TE position not a need. Maybe, maybe not, thats why I said its a stretch. At the end of the day, Amaro is young but has done nothing as a Jet so until then I look at it as a hole to fill. I'd be glad however if he's able to fill it. 

 

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It seems that no matter what we do, we need more DBs every year.  Last year we signed Revis, Skrine, Cro, and Gilchrist but, once again, this is considered a need.

Also, no matter how many picks (or how high the picks), it feels like we haven't had a really good TE since Mickey Schuler. 

 

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7 hours ago, Warfish said:

Tight End is not a need.

Amaro is fine.  A Blocking TE can be found in FA later in the year if needed.

We don't use the position much anyway.

So guess we have 6 needs and 6 picks after all.

What  has Amaro proven here TE is a big question mark,until Amaro proves his worth.

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1 minute ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

It seems that no matter what we do, we need more DBs every year.  Last year we signed Revis, Skrine, Cro, and Gilchrist but, once again, this is considered a need.

Also, no matter how many picks (or how high the picks), it feels like we haven't had a really good TE since Mickey Schuler. 

 

Every team always needs DB's these days.  

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7 hours ago, Warfish said:

Tight End is not a need.

Amaro is fine.  A Blocking TE can be found in FA later in the year if needed.

We don't use the position much anyway.

So guess we have 6 needs and 6 picks after all.

I totally disagree. I saw a very unimpressive Amaro for one season and an injured one for another season. This kid has proven nothing.

Mac is trying to build a SB winner and completely ignoring the TE position does not move us in the direction that Mac (and the fans) covet.

As far as not using the TE spot, that's a function of a total lack of talent at the position. It makes this offense far more predictable. TE is a very important position for a fledgling offense. So I see a definite 7 needs for this team, but all is not lost.

The Jets resigning Mo Wilkerson has become untenable. It's time for the Jets to make the best of bad situation and trade Mo. That should certainly yield Mac an additional pick in the draft. that possibly could be used to address a need.

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3 minutes ago, Mainejet said:

I totally disagree. I saw a very unimpressive Amaro for one season and an injured one for another season. This kid has proven nothing.

Mac is trying to build a SB winner and completely ignoring the TE position does not move us in the direction that Mac (and the fans) covet.

As far as not using the TE spot, that's a function of a total lack of talent at the position. It makes this offense far more predictable. TE is a very important position for a fledgling offense. So I see a definite 7 needs for this team, but all is not lost.

The Jets resigning Mo Wilkerson has become untenable. It's time for the Jets to make the best of bad situation and trade Mo. That should certainly yield Mac an additional pick in the draft. that possibly could be used to address a need.

Replying to your post but asking a question to all - did Macc mess this up w/ Mo by not leaving enough $$ free when he went on a spending binge last offseason?  Or is Mo looking for more than he was worth anyway and thus it would've been a bad signing regardless?  Admittedly I say this with full 20/20 hindsight but, if given the choice to have not splurged on Revis last offseason so we could sign Mo long-term, I'd have preferred that.  Apparently we have a ton of space next offseason too so it seems like there should be a way to get him back if we really want him.  So then it comes down to "does he just want more than he's worth?"

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7 minutes ago, Mainejet said:

I totally disagree. I saw a very unimpressive Amaro for one season and an injured one for another season. This kid has proven nothing.

Mac is trying to build a SB winner and completely ignoring the TE position does not move us in the direction that Mac (and the fans) covet.

As far as not using the TE spot, that's a function of a total lack of talent at the position. It makes this offense far more predictable. TE is a very important position for a fledgling offense. So I see a definite 7 needs for this team, but all is not lost.

The Jets resigning Mo Wilkerson has become untenable. It's time for the Jets to make the best of bad situation and trade Mo. That should certainly yield Mac an additional pick in the draft. that possibly could be used to address a need.

As far as I'm concerned he's also ignoring the QB position as well if the Jets cant afford anyone and dont trade with anyone just announce an open camp battle Smith-Petty-???

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15 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Replying to your post but asking a question to all - did Macc mess this up w/ Mo by not leaving enough $$ free when he went on a spending binge last offseason?  Or is Mo looking for more than he was worth anyway and thus it would've been a bad signing regardless?  Admittedly I say this with full 20/20 hindsight but, if given the choice to have not splurged on Revis last offseason so we could sign Mo long-term, I'd have preferred that.  Apparently we have a ton of space next offseason too so it seems like there should be a way to get him back if we really want him.  So then it comes down to "does he just want more than he's worth?"

IMO Mo's fate was sealed last off season when the Jets had all that money. I don't think they could leave enough money to sign him this year.  Because of the CBA rule that a certain % of cap money has to be spent in 4 year windows.  Last year was the year.

 

IMO they tried very hard to get him signed, but just decided he was asking for way to much money.  Then the money was gone, and so will be Mo.    Shame

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1 hour ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Replying to your post but asking a question to all - did Macc mess this up w/ Mo by not leaving enough $$ free when he went on a spending binge last offseason?  Or is Mo looking for more than he was worth anyway and thus it would've been a bad signing regardless?  Admittedly I say this with full 20/20 hindsight but, if given the choice to have not splurged on Revis last offseason so we could sign Mo long-term, I'd have preferred that.  Apparently we have a ton of space next offseason too so it seems like there should be a way to get him back if we really want him.  So then it comes down to "does he just want more than he's worth?"

YES Tuscany. It's already been mentioned several times from various media outlets that Mo wants, and I quote, "NORTH of JJ Watt money". He actually thinks he's worth MORE money than a guy that is hands down the very best DE in the league without question. His money remands are simply unreasonable. Now you may choose to question the media outlets accuracy of their reporting, but common sense comes into play thereafter. As FLGreen just mentioned, the Jets have attempted to resign MO through TWO administrations and multi millions at their disposal. Still, they were unable to consummate a deal. That should tell you that the reports are true.

It's time for Jets fans to acknowledge this is the end. Soon enough the fans will get closure with the announcement that Mo has been traded, but I am telling you in advance. This is going to happen and there is no other way.

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1 hour ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Replying to your post but asking a question to all - did Macc mess this up w/ Mo by not leaving enough $$ free when he went on a spending binge last offseason?  Or is Mo looking for more than he was worth anyway and thus it would've been a bad signing regardless?  Admittedly I say this with full 20/20 hindsight but, if given the choice to have not splurged on Revis last offseason so we could sign Mo long-term, I'd have preferred that.  Apparently we have a ton of space next offseason too so it seems like there should be a way to get him back if we really want him.  So then it comes down to "does he just want more than he's worth?"

They tried locking him up a year ago, and the year before that, and had plenty of cap room to do it both times. He was simply asking more than the team wanted to pay. I think it's likely Maccagnan offered up more than Idzik, but we've seen he was willing to pay top dollar if he thought that $ for Mo was worth it for the Jets. He was clearly fielding offers last season - and may have gotten at least one after we drafted Williams - but I guess no offer was attractive enough, with Mo locked in at $7M for the 2015 season.

The only question was whether or not we were going to be able to do a tag & trade, because teams don't often like forking over a high draft pick for a mega-expensive player. Last year should have been easier to move him, theoretically, since his new team would get a 1st year at $7M and then the really big dollars could all be on an extension (would save them a bit over $1M/year on balance over the course of the contract).

So he took a gamble here, and if the rumors of heightened interest are true, he gambled correctly. 'Cause the reality is we'd have had a 3rd rounder next year (and $16M more to spend when FA started last month) by simply letting go cleanly. 

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3 hours ago, Mainejet said:

I totally disagree.

Which has no relevance to the reality of things.

3 hours ago, Mainejet said:

I saw a very unimpressive Amaro for one season and an injured one for another season. This kid has proven nothing.

OK.  He and a couple of blockers are still all the Jets require to run the system we run.

3 hours ago, Mainejet said:

Mac is trying to build a SB winner and completely ignoring the TE position does not move us in the direction that Mac (and the fans) covet.

Stress on "Fans", clearly.  Because the Team doesn't think TE is a need, and that will prove itself out over the Draft and FA.

3 hours ago, Mainejet said:

As far as not using the TE spot, that's a function of a total lack of talent at the position.

No, it's the system this O-Co runs.

3 hours ago, Mainejet said:

It makes this offense far more predictable. TE is a very important position for a fledgling offense.

Fledgling?  Whats fledgling about our offense full of Veterans run by a veteran O-Co??

3 hours ago, Mainejet said:

So I see a definite 7 needs for this team, but all is not lost.

The Jets resigning Mo Wilkerson has become untenable. It's time for the Jets to make the best of bad situation and trade Mo. That should certainly yield Mac an additional pick in the draft. that possibly could be used to address a need.

Trade Mo so we can draft......a TE.

My lord.....

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3 hours ago, Warfish said:

Which has no relevance to the reality of things.

OK.  He and a couple of blockers are still all the Jets require to run the system we run.

Stress on "Fans", clearly.  Because the Team doesn't think TE is a need, and that will prove itself out over the Draft and FA.

No, it's the system this O-Co runs.

Fledgling?  Whats fledgling about our offense full of Veterans run by a veteran O-Co??

Trade Mo so we can draft......a TE.

My lord.....

Just a couple of points to note........

There was a report very recently which outlined Mac's strong pursuit of Jermaine Gresham. Although Mac ultimately failed to acquire Grasham, that report flies directly in the face of your assertions. It also illustrates how Chan Gailey would like the Jets offense to be more versatile and morph into something more than what they currently are. It also proves that Mac attempted to utilize FA to acquire an accomplished TE. And it's not a stress on fans, that report clearly illustrates that the Jets front office would like to add talent at TE

And yes, the Jets offense is very much a fledgling offense. Despite them having mostly veterans at the skill positions, they have only played one season together, they lack versatility and depth just about everywhere. They have never reached the playoffs. The Jets offense has beaten just ONE team with a winning record in each of the last two seasons.

They are far more predictable as a result of them completely ignoring the TE position. In fact, Jets QB's went to the TE in a grand total of 15 plays for the entire 2015 season.  I would venture to guess that ZERO SB winners have utilized their TE that little. In other words, versatility is key. Improvement is key to them becoming more competitive.

And I did not say we should trade Mo to draft a TE. That's a complete misrepresentation of what I am saying. First of all, the Jets HAVE to trade Mo. That is their only choice at this point. Mo wants more money than what the Jets are willing to pay and they cannot continue to franchise MO as it gets increasingly expensive and they are already cash strapped. The DL is also probably the strongest unit on the team.

Second of all, the articles notes that the Jets have 7 needs which includes TE along with other positions. The Jets could trade Mo and net an extra pick that could be utilized for any one those 7 needs.

I also believe Mac will select a TE in this draft. It's a position that is in dire need of a talent infusion. Su suffice to say, you and I will have to agree to disagree.

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7 hours ago, Mainejet said:

Just a couple of points to note........

There was a report very recently which outlined Mac's strong pursuit of Jermaine Gresham. Although Mac ultimately failed to acquire Grasham, that report flies directly in the face of your assertions. It also illustrates how Chan Gailey would like the Jets offense to be more versatile and morph into something more than what they currently are. It also proves that Mac attempted to utilize FA to acquire an accomplished TE. And it's not a stress on fans, that report clearly illustrates that the Jets front office would like to add talent at TE

And yes, the Jets offense is very much a fledgling offense. Despite them having mostly veterans at the skill positions, they have only played one season together, they lack versatility and depth just about everywhere. They have never reached the playoffs. The Jets offense has beaten just ONE team with a winning record in each of the last two seasons.

They are far more predictable as a result of them completely ignoring the TE position. In fact, Jets QB's went to the TE in a grand total of 15 plays for the entire 2015 season.  I would venture to guess that ZERO SB winners have utilized their TE that little. In other words, versatility is key. Improvement is key to them becoming more competitive.

And I did not say we should trade Mo to draft a TE. That's a complete misrepresentation of what I am saying. First of all, the Jets HAVE to trade Mo. That is their only choice at this point. Mo wants more money than what the Jets are willing to pay and they cannot continue to franchise MO as it gets increasingly expensive and they are already cash strapped. The DL is also probably the strongest unit on the team.

Second of all, the articles notes that the Jets have 7 needs which includes TE along with other positions. The Jets could trade Mo and net an extra pick that could be utilized for any one those 7 needs.

I also believe Mac will select a TE in this draft. It's a position that is in dire need of a talent infusion. Su suffice to say, you and I will have to agree to disagree.

Gresham was a cheap, well-known quantity who, while not an elite receiving target, is good at everything. Not the same as rolling the dice on a draft pick after rolling the dice on a draft pick. 

An article, by an imp who is so wrong so often, does not dictate our actual draft desires or strategy. It was a silly, if not moronic article. No team in the league drafts like that (no one who drafts well, anyway). You fill real or perceived holes in FA, not by pigeon-holing every one of your draft picks. It was utter stupidity, even if it was agreed that each of those perceived needs is an actual dire need. 

I think there's a good chance we'll take a TE as well. But it's not definite and it's not likely to be the high pick acquired from a Wilkerson trade.

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The top five draft needs for all 32 NFL teams :

 

AFC East

~ ~ ~    New York Jets

Top 5 needs: Edge rusher, ILB, TE, CB, OL 
No. of selections: 6
Draft picks: Round 1 (20), Round 2 (51), Round 3 (83), Round 4 (118), Round 5 (157), Round 7 (241)


Analysis: The Jets' defensive line is full of dominant performers, but the missing ingredient has been a true edge bender at the outside linebacker spot. Finding an edge rusher should be an early round draft priority. The Jets need to upgrade the right tackle spot, and left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson's massive cap hit makes him a potential cap cut. They could replace Damon Harrison in the middle of the defensive line on Day 3 (Rounds 4-7), while a tight end could be in play early on.

rest of above article  : 

>   http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000650098/article/2016-nfl-draft-top-five-needs-for-all-32-teams

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8 hours ago, Mainejet said:

Just a couple of points to note........

There was a report very recently which.....

Well, there is your first problem.  Listening to "reports".

Quote

Although Mac ultimately failed to acquire Grasham, that report flies directly in the face of your assertions.

Yet if Gresham was as vital as you seem to think, why would Macc have failed?  Hmmmm......

Quote

It also illustrates how Chan Gailey would like the Jets offense to be more versatile and morph into something more than what they currently are.

Gailey is why the TE isn't vital.  His system is known for it's lack of focus on a pass-catching TE.  TE in the Gailey system is just another O-lineman.

Quote

It also proves that Mac attempted to utilize FA to acquire an accomplished TE.

An unsubstantiated report in the media of a guy who didn't sign proves very, very little Maine.

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And yes, the Jets offense is very much a fledgling offense. Despite them having mostly veterans..........

image.png

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They are far more predictable as a result of them completely ignoring the TE position. In fact, Jets QB's went to the TE in a grand total of 15 plays for the entire 2015 season.

Wouldn't disagree, but that doesn't mean the team is focusing on changing it.

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  I would venture to guess that ZERO SB winners have utilized their TE that little.

I wouldn't wager that without looking at the stats, and I'm pretty sure you haven't done so.

Quote

And I did not say we should trade Mo to draft a TE. That's a complete misrepresentation of what I am saying.

You said we should trade Mo.  For picks.  To use to (at least in part) to draft a vital, all-important.....TE.  No mate, it's not a complete misrepresentation at all.  

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First of all, the Jets HAVE to trade Mo.

I think they will, but no, they most certainly do not "have to".

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The DL is also probably the strongest unit on the team.

We'll see, now that Snacks is a Giant, and once Mo is gone and Sheldon goes to jail.

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Second of all, the articles notes that the Jets have 7 needs which includes TE along with other positions.

Like "Reports" I put very little credence into speculative articles by reporters with nothing to report at current.

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I also believe Mac will select a TE in this draft.

We'll see, I don't think he will outside perhaps a late-round throwaway pick.  A 6th or 7th perhaps.

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It's a position that is in dire need of a talent infusion. Su suffice to say, you and I will have to agree to disagree.

We agree to disagree, aye.  Amaro will get another year to start and see who/what he is.  If he busts, TE may be a minor need next offseason, but it will never be a major need under this O-Co.

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1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Well, there is your first problem.  Listening to "reports".

Yet if Gresham was as vital as you seem to think, why would Macc have failed?  Hmmmm......

Gailey is why the TE isn't vital.  His system is known for it's lack of focus on a pass-catching TE.  TE in the Gailey system is just another O-lineman.

An unsubstantiated report in the media of a guy who didn't sign proves very, very little Maine.

image.png

Wouldn't disagree, but that doesn't mean the team is focusing on changing it.

I wouldn't wager that without looking at the stats, and I'm pretty sure you haven't done so.

You said we should trade Mo.  For picks.  To use to (at least in part) to draft a vital, all-important.....TE.  No mate, it's not a complete misrepresentation at all.  

I think they will, but no, they most certainly do not "have to".

We'll see, now that Snacks is a Giant, and once Mo is gone and Sheldon goes to jail.

Like "Reports" I put very little credence into speculative articles by reporters with nothing to report at current.

We'll see, I don't think he will outside perhaps a late-round throwaway pick.  A 6th or 7th perhaps.

We agree to disagree, aye.  Amaro will get another year to start and see who/what he is.  If he busts, TE may be a minor need next offseason, but it will never be a major need under this O-Co.

But you don't read any reports and you still know better? You need to check your ego at the door.

Mac did not sign Gresham because the Jets are cash strapped. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure this sh*t out?

Now, that report may prove very little, but it definitely proves more than you merely posting something on a message board.

You wouldn't disagree that probably ZERO teams use their TE that little and have actually won the SB? But that doesn't mean the team is focused on changing it?! That has got to be the very dumbest thing I have ever heard. If the CS doesn't agree and still chooses to play without a TE then they should be f*cking fired immediately. It's a VITAL part of a functioning offense. In fact, it's a well known safety outlet for most SB winning QB's.

I would wager that they will pick a TE in the draft. Now, I am not very certain, only because their is such a lack of talent at TE in this draft. But right now they have nobody. They need someone to step up and start catching the ball when their number is called.

And the Jets do not have to trade Mo?! Well......if they don't have to trade him then WTF else are they going to do with him? Resign him? NO. Multiple administrations with multi millions tried to sign him and could not. Re-franchise him? NO. As already mentioned that becomes very expensive, far more expensive than this year. Let him play out the season and let him leave via FA? Well, I suppose they could do that, but that would be the dumbest f*cking thing they could ever do. If they did? Once again, that should be grounds for firing on the spot. So you tell me, WTF are they going to do with Mo if they don't trade him that is actually a REASONABLE idea?

Wow, it's really going to kill the Jets to see Sheldon Richardson to go to jail for what? A DAY? 3 Days at the most? He didn't smuggle cocaine across the border Warfish. He didn't murder anyone. Any jail time he does (and he probably won't do any time behind bars) will be a few days at the most. 

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