Real problems vs. reactionary narratives

[JiFtheOracle]

Good write up.  It not just 1 thing.  Everything is bad right now.

The one comment Bowles said in his presser that I agree with is; one hand washes the other.

If the QB sucks and turns the ball over, the D has a harder job.

If the D gives up big plays and cant get off the field, it makes the O press harder to make a play.

If the DL can get to the QB, you're asking the secondary to hold longer.

If the secondary cant hold a second longer, the blitzes arent getting home.

and on and on and on...

Rex used to say this and as much as people mock him, its spot on.  The 2 fastest and easiest ways to lose a game are turning the ball over and a secondary that gives up big plays.  Well the Jets are doing both better than anyone right now and here we are.

 

[Integrity28]

2 minutes ago, JiF said:

Good write up.  It not just 1 thing.  Everything is bad right now.

The one comment Bowles said in his presser that I agree with is; one hand washes the other.

If the QB sucks and turns the ball over, the D has a harder job.

If the D gives up big plays and cant get off the field, it makes the O press harder to make a play.

If the DL can get to the QB, you're asking the secondary to hold longer.

If the secondary cant hold a second longer, the blitzes arent getting home.

and on and on and on...

Rex used to say this and as much as people mock him, its spot on.  The 2 fastest and easiest ways to lose a game are turning the ball over and a secondary that gives up big plays.  Well the Jets are doing both better than anyone right now and here we are.

 

It's common sense. 

Rex got mocked for a lot of things, deservingly, but saying this wasn't one of them... it's a coaching cliché, he's been around the league long enough to at least get those right.

Fans are the ones that fail to understand it. Immediately allocating every instance of "bad" to their agenda instead.

[Big Blocker]

^

Generally I don't think people should be given credit for saying the obvious.  Ryan was a drag and had to go.  However unhappy people are with Bowles, it doesn't change that Ryan was not a good fit.

[JiFtheOracle]

Just now, Integrity28 said:

It's common sense. 

Rex got mocked for a lot of things, deservingly, but saying this wasn't one of them... it's a coaching cliché, he's been around the league long enough to at least get those right.

Fans are the ones that fail to understand it. Immediately allocating every instance of "bad" to their agenda instead.

Maybe we just heard a lot of it those last few years because it happened so much.  I'm not giving Rex credit for coining this cliche phrase, just saying he's who I've heard say it and its spot on.

 

 

 

[southparkcpa]

4 hours ago, The Crusher said:

.  Bowles? Was better as the Villian on Burn Notice.  

I liked him as Bubba in Forrest Gump.

[southparkcpa]

4 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

I've been swamped with travel and work the past couple weeks. I feel fortunate in that I haven't even been able to watch each of the past 2 games in their entirety. Given how things have gone, it would have been a waste of time and nothing but pure aggravation.

I've been skimming the board, and watching the reactions, over-reactions, and tracking the pulse of how the emotional coaster of rooting this team manifests in narratives about how to fix it. I think there's validity to some, others are completely stupid, and some are centered on the right issue, but so extremely biased or confounded it's hard to take them seriously.

So, with all that said, I think these are the general themes I've picked up on and I'm going to try to present them without bias or slant.

• Real problem #1: Can our GM find a Franchise QB? — MacCagnan has tried to fill the QB room economically, using a 7th rounder to acquire Fitz, then a 1-yr contract to keep him (contrary to many points of view on this site, this is actually an economical approach when compared to other teams spending $12+ mil over several years for other mediocre veteran QBs), a 4th to draft Petty, and a 2nd to draft Hack. Where this concerns me is that the later you pick a QB, the less likely you are to hit—I think I read that somewhere. The concern here is that Mac may not fully grasp the cost of "getting your guy". Rumors were that he wanted to move up for Wentz or Goff. He didn't, and my goal here is not to pose the argument over whether he should have or shouldn't have, but instead to flag the possibility that our otherwise competent GM may just required a "cost of a QB" curve. Since neither Petty or Hack have taken a regular season snap, this is unsubstantiated worry, and not proven fault. We have to hope he's successful with one, or both, of them. 

 

I think we all understand the value and difficulty of finding a QB.  Yet there seems to be decently performing QBs drafted after Hack and Petty.  It aint easy but to draft Petty and then hack and neither has seen the light of day seems puzzling.  

Im literally near the point where (another few losses) we do basically what the Yankees did when they cut AROD. Bench the top players underperforming, let the youth play.

 

 

[AFJF]

50 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

Almost made it 2 pages without getting stupid.

Great post from you, but honestly shocked it went that long.

I posted a stat about the D-line's lack of pressure a few days ago...within three or four comments, it was a Fitz thread.  SMH.

[Integrity28]

20 minutes ago, southparkcpa said:

I think we all understand the value and difficulty of finding a QB.  Yet there seems to be decently performing QBs drafted after Hack and Petty.  It aint easy but to draft Petty and then hack and neither has seen the light of day seems puzzling.  

Im literally near the point where (another few losses) we do basically what the Yankees did when they cut AROD. Bench the top players underperforming, let the youth play.

 

 

Yea, it comes down to those teams partly not having a choice, and partly understanding that inexperience + superior talent and potential is better when trying to go all-in (rather than being conservative) than experience + limited talent. 

Our braintrust is conservative, which can be good, but at this point... conservative needs to take a backseat to the potential of Petty being an ass-kicker. You can't win the pot if you fold every hand.

[Integrity28]

10 minutes ago, AFJF said:

Great post from you, but honestly shocked it went that long.

I posted a stat about the D-line's lack of pressure a few days ago...within three or four comments, it was a Fitz thread.  SMH.

lol, truth

[Kevin L]

33 minutes ago, southparkcpa said:

I liked him as Bubba in Forrest Gump.

Or Bunny Colvin in The Wire

[Larz]

for the record, my narrative is mostly a spielberg rip off

[phill1c]

Just now, Larz said:

for the record, my narrative is mostly a speilberg rip off

That'll never make the cut...

[RoadFan]

Too many are focusing on the corner play in the secondary.  Revis and company have been poor, but the safety play has been worse.

Calvin Pryor is completely worthless.  I have been saying it the whole time and people defended him because he makes a tackle behind the LOS once in a while. 

The guy is useless.  He comes at the ball carrier hard but takes lousy angles. He hits but doesn't wrap up.  His lapses in coverage include but are not limited to; blown assignments, getting flat-out beaten, falling down, committing penalties, etc.

There is not one, single thing Pryor does well. 

"The missile with no guidance system."  Flies blind, occasionally crashes into something, but misses its target most of the time.

I think Bowles is close to benching his a$$.  Finally.

Gilchrist isn't particularly good either, but he is better than Pryor.

[Bugg]

3 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

On balance I'd say you were very fair. The team, coaching, and FO have multiple problems and they're deeper than a game here or there from any individual one of them. 

The thing I'm hoping for this year, putting aside optimism/pessimism as to likelihood, is Petty getting onto the field and showing he's good enough. Not because it fixes the GM or HC or any other underperforming players. But it will hide a lot of the other real problems, and possibly those playing below their ability may start to look/play like they care again. Clearly Bowles isn't firing them up with moving or inspirational speeches, to the extent that stuff ever truly lasts more than 30 minutes anyway.

Even in the absence of going all the way - or even making the playoffs - this year, that would also open up a lot of other possibilities in the offseason, because they surely can't pencil in Fitz or Hackenberg to start next year. So a lot of other uninspired play can be punished by finding new players instead of continuing the attempt at getting half pregnant at QB. He's going to need a longer look than I fear he'll get, though, to give the GM enough confidence throughout the 2017 offseason to forgo attempts at a more promising young QB than they've got. Unlike this past offseason, he's going to be under a lot of pressure to nail a QB (or a more optimistic prospect) in the spring. So again, hopefully Petty comes in and takes the league by storm. He has enough weapons at his disposal.

That gets taken care of then it's not the elephant in the room and the GM can fully devote himself to replacing the other faulty parts. 

Nobody pretended this team was going to challenge for a division title this year. If Petty can get on the field and show he can play some and get to 6-8 wins, it puts a whitewash over the awful reality that the defense is from hunger, the OL and WR are aging, there is no TE and the coach's approach is concerning. And without some promise at QB, the franchise will continue to tread water for a while. 

[Sperm Edwards]

2 hours ago, Bugg said:

Nobody pretended this team was going to challenge for a division title this year. If Petty can get on the field and show he can play some and get to 6-8 wins, it puts a whitewash over the awful reality that the defense is from hunger, the OL and WR are aging, there is no TE and the coach's approach is concerning. And without some promise at QB, the franchise will continue to tread water for a while. 

Personally I never thought they had a chance, and expected 7-8 wins in 2016. That said, "nobody" is a bit revisionist after now knowing we're a last place 1-3 and Fitz is looking as effective as a blind Brooks Bollinger throwing lefty.

The team maxes out the cap & spends still more by pushing this year's expenses to next year. There were many fans predicting they'd take over where they left off (or I guess they thought, where they left off prior to that last Buffalo game) and thought the Jets would win 10 or 11 games. This would indeed challenge for a division title with Brady missing the first 1/4 of the season, after which he'd be rusty -- or so was the narrative in which many believed. Even our HC / GM (I can't remember which offhand, but they both seemed in agreement) claimed a major deciding reason they took Lee in round 1, instead of the top remaining QB prospect Lynch, was specifically because of the expected on-field production of each as rookies in 2016. If they didn't believe they were seriously competing this year, it wouldn't matter how much they'd contribute this year alone.

[Larz]

this team has been out-coached 3 of 4 weeks, and the worst QB play any of us has ever seen is still not enough for Bowles to act.

this season is all on Bowles

slow starts, pussy playcalling, no accountability, the whole team has gone to sleep

[Bugg]

1 minute ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Personally I never thought they had a chance, and expected 7-8 wins in 2016. That said, "nobody" is a bit revisionist after now knowing we're a last place 1-3 and Fitz is looking as effective as a blind Brooks Bollinger throwing lefty.

The team maxes out the cap & spends still more by pushing this year's expenses to next year. There were many fans predicting they'd take over where they left off (or I guess they thought, where they left off prior to that last Buffalo game) and thought the Jets would win 10 or 11 games. This would indeed challenge for a division title with Brady missing the first 1/4 of the season, after which he'd be rusty -- or so was the narrative in which many believed. Even our HC / GM (I can't remember which offhand, but they both seemed in agreement) claimed a major deciding reason they took Lee in round 1, instead of the top remaining QB prospect Lynch, was specifically because of the expected on-field production of each as rookies in 2016. If they didn't believe they were seriously competing this year, it wouldn't matter how much they'd contribute this year alone.

Suspect the GM and coach knew the tougher schedule made a playoff berth or division title  a tough sell; not impossible but up hill And doubt either's job is in danger barring something more awful. And they hoped Fitz, with some degree of competence off last year, might paper over the issues and at least keep the team competitive. And based on 2015, that wasn't entirely crazy.   But things change. And the franchise has to find out sooner than alter if Petty can do the job,or if QB is still an open issue in 2017. Been through this before with Pennington (whom  I know Herm above despises). Simply because you're paying Fitz a king's ransom is not a reason to play him over a young guy when the season is done. I understand barring catastrophe why hack won't play in 2016, but if it's going to hell, get Petty out there and cut the crap. 

What is more shocking really is the defense.Nobody expected this. 

 

[Matt39]

13 minutes ago, Bugg said:

 

What is more shocking really is the defense.Nobody expected this. 

 

GM spends a ton to fix a bad secondary. HC is hired who made his bones coaching secondaries. Secondary proceeds to get worse. 

[CrazyCarl40]

2 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

GM spends a ton to fix a bad secondary. HC is hired who made his bones coaching secondaries. Secondary proceeds to get worse. 

Spending a ton of money isn't always a bandaid. They gave a declining Cro 8 million. They gave a declining Revis way too much. They gave one of the worst corners in the NFL in Buster Skrine nearly 7 million a year. The only free agent in the secondary they brought in who has played well is Gilchrist and that was basically only last year. He's fallen off in a massive way as well. They've also been partially done in by failed picks by the previous regime in McDougle and Milliner. But, this current regime thinks Marcus Williams can play significant snaps and it's just not true. He thrived as a part time player. He's been exposed in his increased play. The failure in the secondary has been on many fronts. 

[Matt39]

2 minutes ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

Spending a ton of money isn't always a bandaid. They gave a declining Cro 8 million. They gave a declining Revis way too much. They gave one of the worst corners in the NFL in Buster Skrine nearly 7 million a year. The only free agent in the secondary they brought in who has played well is Gilchrist and that was basically only last year. He's fallen off in a massive way as well. They've also been partially done in by failed picks by the previous regime in McDougle and Milliner. But, this current regime thinks Marcus Williams can play significant snaps and it's just not true. He thrived as a part time player. He's been exposed in his increased play. The failure in the secondary has been on many fronts. 

Williams is the only guy in the secondary that has a nose for the football. He has to play.

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, Bugg said:

Suspect the GM and coach knew the tougher schedule made a playoff berth or division title  a tough sell; not impossible but up hill And doubt either's job is in danger barring something more awful. And they hoped Fitz, with some degree of competence off last year, might paper over the issues and at least keep the team competitive. And based on 2015, that wasn't entirely crazy.   But things change. And the franchise has to find out sooner than alter if Petty can do the job,or if QB is still an open issue in 2017. Been through this before with Pennington (whom  I know Herm above despises). Simply because you're paying Fitz a king's ransom is not a reason to play him over a young guy when the season is done. I understand barring catastrophe why hack won't play in 2016, but if it's going to hell, get Petty out there and cut the crap. 

What is more shocking really is the defense.Nobody expected this. 

 

I think you give them both too much credit for expecting a treading-water 2016 season. They expected to be a serious force, particularly on defense, in a year the Patriots would be without Brady for 25% of the season (and then perhaps somewhat rusty for a week or two after that). 

Bowles especially. He's an ex-player and they say/think dumb things like "they're all tough games" and "there are no easy wins" after beating a bunch of JV & injured teams in 2015. They know some teams are better, but tell themselves the pushover opponents weren't pushovers. A mentality like that infects its victims into believing that beating 10 bad teams means they could beat 8 good ones. Unfortunately, they can't.

BTW, I think keeping Geno on as the #2 is further evidence that they saw themselves as contenders. If Fitz was out for a short period, they didn't want to hand the team to a QB (Petty) who'd never seen live action before.

No, I'm sticking with they believed their own hype. I certainly don't buy the idea that "nobody" thought they'd compete for a division title this year. Lots of people did, and some are employees in the Jets' FO or coaching staff.

[CrazyCarl40]

6 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

Williams is the only guy in the secondary that has a nose for the football. He has to play.

He has his moments for sure. He's also a piss poor tackler and gets beat as much as he makes plays. But, yes, he has to play because they have 4 CBs on the roster to go with 4 QBs and 4 TEs. 

[greenwave81]

5 hours ago, JiF said:

Good write up.  It not just 1 thing.  Everything is bad right now.

The one comment Bowles said in his presser that I agree with is; one hand washes the other.

If the QB sucks and turns the ball over, the D has a harder job.

If the D gives up big plays and cant get off the field, it makes the O press harder to make a play.

If the DL can get to the QB, you're asking the secondary to hold longer.

If the secondary cant hold a second longer, the blitzes arent getting home.

and on and on and on...

Rex used to say this and as much as people mock him, its spot on.  The 2 fastest and easiest ways to lose a game are turning the ball over and a secondary that gives up big plays.  Well the Jets are doing both better than anyone right now and here we are.

 

Yeah....what Bowles says is true, but he should take a lot of the blame also...

Seems to me after the Cincinnati game, when teams saw how we beat up Dalton with his 7 step drops and long looks downfield to the tune of what, 7 sacks? our following opponents OC's have figured out that to neutralize a strong DL you change to the short passing/RB flat dump off/TE slants game tog get the ball out of your QB's hand quickly...and the Jets have done NOTHING to neutralize that.  Maybe our personnel are incapable, but a lot of it is the coverages Bowles plays and the personnel sets on the field.

Where's the 3-4 stuff to clog the middle?  We hardly ever seem to play press coverage with our DB's either.

[jeremy2020]

30 minutes ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

He has his moments for sure. He's also a piss poor tackler and gets beat as much as he makes plays. But, yes, he has to play because they have 4 CBs on the roster to go with 4 QBs and 4 TEs. 

Wait, the Jets have a TE? Maybe we shouldn't talk about it so they don't get scared and run away.

[Sperm Edwards]

21 minutes ago, jeremy2020 said:

Wait, the Jets have a TE? Maybe we shouldn't talk about it so they don't get scared and run away.

Lol. It is a bit ridiculous but to be fair, though it's a repeated sore point for fans, try not to get caught up in the position title. Enunwa fills the TE slot as effectively as a good receiving-only TE with poor blocking skills (and there are a few of them out there). That, with his added ability to line up anywhere, makes him a matchup nightmare if used effectively, and to the Jets' credit they often do (scheme-wise anyway). Most WRs who line up tight are there just for deception. Most TEs who line up wide are just out there as decoys. This kid's a legitimate threat to catch a pass & do damage no matter where he is, and it's anyone's guess where he's going to line up until they break from the huddle. 

The crazy part is that we have 4 of them on the roster, and the only one that does the job - Enunwa - isn't one of them.

[bostonmajet]

1 minute ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Lol. To be fair, I know it's a repeated sore point for fans, but try not to get caught up in the position title. Enunwa fills the TE slot as effectively as a good receiving-only TE with poor blocking skills (and there are a few of them out there). That, with his added ability to line up anywhere, makes him a matchup nightmare if used effectively, and to the Jets' credit they often do (scheme-wise anyway). Most WRs who line up tight are there just for deception. Most TEs who line up wide are just out there as decoys. This kid's a legitimate threat to catch a pass & do damage no matter where he is, and it's anyone's guess where he's going to line up until they break from the huddle. 

Okay, fair point. Then why do we have 4, yes 4 TEs on the roster? And, they suck. I get the ASJ, but the others. If Q is our guy, can't we fill the roster with better players?

[Sperm Edwards]

Just now, bostonmajet said:

Okay, fair point. Then why do we have 4, yes 4 TEs on the roster? And, they suck. I get the ASJ, but the others. If Q is our guy, can't we fill the roster with better players?

I'd just edited my thread when your post popped up.

It's ridiculous, I agree.

[LionelRichie]

1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I think you give them both too much credit for expecting a treading-water 2016 season. They expected to be a serious force, particularly on defense, in a year the Patriots would be without Brady for 25% of the season (and then perhaps somewhat rusty for a week or two after that). 

Bowles especially. He's an ex-player and they say/think dumb things like "they're all tough games" and "there are no easy wins" after beating a bunch of JV & injured teams in 2015. They know some teams are better, but tell themselves the pushover opponents weren't pushovers. A mentality like that infects its victims into believing that beating 10 bad teams means they could beat 8 good ones. Unfortunately, they can't.

BTW, I think keeping Geno on as the #2 is further evidence that they saw themselves as contenders. If Fitz was out for a short period, they didn't want to hand the team to a QB (Petty) who'd never seen live action before.

No, I'm sticking with they believed their own hype. I certainly don't buy the idea that "nobody" thought they'd compete for a division title this year. Lots of people did, and some are employees in the Jets' FO or coaching staff.

 

I think you have this exactly right.   This was like Rex / Tanny in 2011 when they thought they were going to make a run at the Super Bowl and laid a gigantic turd.   

To me the big question is where to go from here?     This team sucks, is old, and very top heavy in terms of salary cap.  The Wilkerson contract looks like an albatross right now, and does a GM / HC really get the luxury to "blow it up" in year 3?    Unfortunately, the best thing for this team is to move Richardson and likely cut all the following players if they don't want to renegotiate: Decker, Harris, Marshall, Revis, Gilchrist, Bracimini.  

[Smashmouth]

8 hours ago, Larz said:

this team has been out-coached 3 of 4 weeks, and the worst QB play any of us has ever seen is still not enough for Bowles to act.

this season is all on Bowles

slow starts, pussy playcalling, no accountability, the whole team has gone to sleep

This 100 % correct this team and the coaching staff are all sleep walking. You can't win in this league on talent alone most of what the good teams in this league are doing stems from good coaching.

In calling any of this over reaction is not a fair assessment. Bowles is doing the same things we gave him a pass on last year on a team that should be 3-1 rather than 1-3. No adjustments, bad play calling on both sides of the ball, missed assignments, and a total lack of fire from the coach or his players. And most of all no accountability for this shabby play.

I'm saying most of the problems we are having on both sides of the ball is poor game planning and total predictability. This team does not play aggressively and they are playing slow which tells me they are unprepared and do not have a solid grasp on either  system.

[August]

The secondary is way too talented Imo it's coaching and/or the scheme that's the problem right now. 

[CrazyCarl40]

23 minutes ago, August said:

The secondary is way too talented Imo it's coaching and/or the scheme that's the problem right now. 

Really? You have a declining Revis who while still effective isn't a one on one shutdown corner anymore. Buster Skrine was one of the worst corners in the league before the Jets signed him and, surprise, he hasn't gotten any better. Marcus Williams was an UDFA who looked solid in limited time but giving him prolonged snaps and more important duties have shown he's about average and his tackling skills are below that. And then you have a promising rookie who looks okay when he plays but doesn't really get any chances. There's no depth there. And that's just the corners. The safeties are playing even worse than the corners. There is talent in the secondary but not as much as everyone gives them credit for. 

[August]

31 minutes ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

Really? You have a declining Revis who while still effective isn't a one on one shutdown corner anymore. Buster Skrine was one of the worst corners in the league before the Jets signed him and, surprise, he hasn't gotten any better. Marcus Williams was an UDFA who looked solid in limited time but giving him prolonged snaps and more important duties have shown he's about average and his tackling skills are below that. And then you have a promising rookie who looks okay when he plays but doesn't really get any chances. There's no depth there. And that's just the corners. The safeties are playing even worse than the corners. There is talent in the secondary but not as much as everyone gives them credit for. 

That's on the coaches to figure out how to utilize the players. Why is Calvin Pryor in coverage? He's an in the box safety who's strength is to help out in run support and guard the short intermediate area. We have Antonio Allen who's actually a safety with cover skills, why not use him more? How about stop using Revis like its 2009? And this is just off the top of my head. 

[LWC611]

18 hours ago, detectivekimble said:

Two more weeks of this and he'll be riding the pine.

if Fitzpatrick has to throw 18 interceptions in 4 games before he gets benched this organization has huge problems. I believe he has earned his seat on the bench right now....I know he is going to the guy against the Steelers.  One more game like the last two and he should sit. 

[Integrity28]

12 hours ago, Matt39 said:

GM spends a ton to fix a bad secondary. HC is hired who made his bones coaching secondaries. Secondary proceeds to get worse. 

Yup. This infringes upon "completely unacceptable", if it doesn't get turned around by end of year, I'd consider Bowles squarely on hot seat in year 3.

[Matt39]

4 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

Yup. This infringes upon "completely unacceptable", if it doesn't get turned around by end of year, I'd consider Bowles squarely on hot seat in year 3.

I'm firmly on the get a coach in here who's been a HC before bandwagon. If I'm Woody im in contact with Tom Herman's people already....enough with the coordinators.

 

And I like Todd Bowles. I just dont think he's ready to be a HC.