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Draft strategy / SI prospect report


thshadow

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13 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

i wouldn't be surprised if they threw a lot of money at a LT in Fa, resigned winters, and then drafted fournette.  they obviously have to make the offense competitive and until the find a qb it makes sense to beef up the running game.  

Would be my plan .

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22 minutes ago, thshadow said:

I think as you go later in the draft, you shift from BPA more towards need.  Also, in later rounds, BPA is not as clear cut.

You could argue that this is "BPA, but break approximate ties based on need".  And as you get later, even round 2, there are lots more approximate ties.

Interesting. I always thought that teams that tend to go BPA later in drafts were better off.  Teams that draft BPA later in drafts were selecting guys that dropped due to a particular concern but were willing to take a chance cause the value was too high to pass up.  Seattle took Wilson in the 3rd when they had just signed Matt Flynn to a large contract; Wilson's height was a concern. Direct quote from si.com post 2012 draft grades  "and QB Russell Wilson (74) has a bright future, even if Seattle didn't really need him."  Dak Prescott was taken in the 4th when Dallas already had Romo.  From nfl.com on 2016 post draft grades:  "Dak Prescott could be the franchise quarterback of the future, based on his ruggedly athletic game and superb leadership skills. He will push Kellen Moore for the backup quarterback job while serving as Tony Romo's apprentice".   Redskins drafted Cousins two days after drafting RG3.

These examples are not the rule but the exception I understand, but it would seem like teams that are not worried about filling gaps through the draft but rather finding depth with players that they can take chances and be patient with are a little better off.  Find the best football players and figure out a way to get them on the field.  It was the philosophy that Pete Carroll brought with him from college, where every 2-3 years you needed the next best player to step in.  In a time when the NFL has players switching teams so often, this might be a good philosophy to have.

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1 hour ago, PepPep said:

What do you base that on? Jets history? I'm curious.

Macc seems like a wheeler and dealer. The type of guy who is shrewd and understands the value of draft picks. If there is an offer, why wouldn't he trade down? He inquired about moving UP last year, both for a QB (early on) and for Tunsil (as he started to slide in the draft).  

Well, I feel like every year we all want to trade down - except for the posters that want us to trade up... :-)

For Macc, this will be his 3rd draft.  So far my impression of him is that he does all of his due diligence as far as figuring out what the prices are - but rarely makes a move.  Last year IIRC there was noise that he was interested in practically every pick from 1 to 32.

Has his only actual trade (pick for pick) been the 2017 4th-for-5th for Shell?

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2 hours ago, varjet said:

Ereck Flowers was a college LT I believe who was thought to be a stretch for LT in the NFL.  That was proven to be correct.

The Jets need an LT desperately, but it is most important that that 6th pick be a potential All Pro at some position.  The Williams pick was the right one, but it required them off loading one of the others and saving the second contract/increasing salary.   Macc and Woody blew the opportunity to do that.

So if Mac picks a Cook, Fournette, Tim Williams, Peppers, Adams, or someone else, and they turn out to be great NFL players, he is a hero.

If he reaches for Cam Robinson and he turns out like Flowers, even though LT is a huge hole, he will be pilloried.

I support trying to make Clady and/or Whitworth work at LT on a hold-the-fort affordable basis.

Ya makes sense... I keep seeing Robinson creep up on the mock drafts and the big boards though... Makes me feel like more and more of the "experts" do see him as a guy who could play LT well long term... Maybe he's going to look more like a Ronnie Stanley, who the Ravens took at 6 last year and who had a pretty solid season at LT... Or Brandon Scherff who was 5th by Washington in 2015 and is now a probowl player... Yes, if he fails Mac might get smashed, but maybe less so if there's a consensus that he was picked in the right spot, know what I mean?

It's really hard to say if the scouting reports of these guys match... Not until Robinson really comes out after the combine and such but they have very similar measurables... I know these aren't the whole picture, but it's interesting to look at... 

I get what you're saying though. Might be hard to pass on a skill type player there. I'd be happy with Wilson, Fournette, or maybe Marshon Lattimore too... I'm not tying myself to Robinson in chains yet as far as the 6th pick goes. I'm not ready to do that without a lot more information on him. I've watched his highlights (and lowlights) and it's fun to see him manhandling people, but I really don't know what I'm looking at from a technique standpoint.

Maybe the Jets can visit the OL in free agency and at least build some more depth. It's not going to create superstars who sell sneakers, but the line is just so important, especially for a team like the Jets right now.

 

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3 hours ago, slats said:

What position would you avoid as the BAP if you're drafting for the Jets? DT, maybe? What else? The one thing the Jets have in abundance is needs. 

I would wait until at least the 2nd round to take a kicker.  That's the Jet way :o

 

 

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7 hours ago, thshadow said:

So my extensive draft research :-) has consisted of reading one entire article:

http://www.si.com/2017-nfl-draft-position-rankings

What do you think of the following plan for the first 3 rounds:

1. BPA - which will obviously be tremendously debated - but at this point I think I'd be happy with Peppers or Cook (maybe Fournette)
2. Guard
3. Center

It doesn't seem like there'll be a worth-it-at-6 tackle, so focus on the rest of the line in later rounds.

I really don't see a round-1 QB in the picture, given that there aren't any homerun prospects, and anyone available at 6 is someone passed up by Cleveland / Chi / SF.  And it seems unlikely that there's anyone worth trading up for (even if we could).

Maybe it's me, but I didn't think Johnson did so terribly at center to warrant targeting a 3rd round draft pick to fill the position. It's not that I would scoff at an upgrade (should the Jets part ways with Mangold a year early). It's that I don't know that using our 3rd round pick on one necessarily secures that outcome. There were a lot of running lanes up the middle in December.

Offensive linemen are tough to gauge until someone gets injured (or until the guy ahead of him on the depth chart is playing so poorly). They just don't get rotated in & out like all other non-QB positions. It's typically all-or-none, and you don't know what you've got until he's your starter.  Guards may be a little easier, since there's twice as much chance of a guard getting injured than a center (if the top backup is versatile enough to play RG or LG at the drop of a hat).

But since you brought up si.com, their latest mock draft today made me vomit plenty:

http://www.si.com/nfl/2017/01/03/nfl-mock-draft-first-round-myles-garrett-mitch-trubisky

A safety with the 6th pick in the country. Yeah, that's sure to get us over the hump and contend in the near future. Another 1st round safety. A top 10 pick safety to follow up a top 20 pick safety from 3 years ago. That's just great.

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5 hours ago, ScarletKnight89 said:

We have to rebuild the O-Line.

I'd also love if the Jets tried to move up and get Myles Garrett. There's our pass rusher for the next 10 years.

No need to move up a date give an arm and a leg for Garrett, when our pass rusher for the next 10 years will fall right into our laps

 

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I think the Jets go Reuben Foster when it's all said and done. Peppers is somebody that I think will be an absolute beast but I think has much more bust risk.

Reuben Foster is a lock, slam dunk, plug and play pick. He can do it all at ILB and he is highly coveted as a leader. I think he could be the defensive captain for the next 10 years. Think Patrick Willis, Kuechly, etc. 

The only issue is that I'm not sure if he'll fall to 6.

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I think my goal in this draft would be to come out of it with Ramczyk and Pocic.  Couple them with Carpenter and resign Winters and let Qvale and She'll battle it out at RT.  OL is fixed with Johnson as depth at G & C.

what we don't need is drafting any projects in the second round.  Can't rebuild the entire roster in one year.  I would run out Petty and scrub vet like Hoyer.  Tank to get Darnold and have him play behind our new and improved OL.  The rest of the roster will improve once we have a budding superstar at QB.

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Get. Lt. Kallil in free agency keep mangold. Johnson, shell will blossom. Good line. No need r b unless to complement Powell who should be our starter next year grab Garrett with our 6th. Sons of anarchy return to form. Sheldon in a contract year. Wilkerson healthy Williams emerging into a star. Lee 1 year under his belt should be better use some more free agent dollars and grab berry from k c... Now we got a top 5 D for next year. Solidified the o line. Cheap productive under appreciated Powell when given his chances can do it all. Mix of young and old wide outs. Healthy decker. ALL We NEED NOW IS A QB...............


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This inclination that there isn't a QB worth taking Is beyond me. Time and time again we have learned that if you don't have a QB, you have a sh*tty team. When are we going to learn that we need to get the QB position decided FIRST before anything else. Or else we will continue to suck for 20 more years. 

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10 hours ago, BrickzNY said:

This inclination that there isn't a QB worth taking Is beyond me. Time and time again we have learned that if you don't have a QB, you have a sh*tty team. When are we going to learn that we need to get the QB position decided FIRST before anything else. Or else we will continue to suck for 20 more years. 

Yes, but there has to be somebody worth drafting 6th overall. You don't just draft a QB to draft one. Turbinsky, Waston, and Kizer all have question marks and could be available in the 2nd or possibly even 3rd rounds. There is no consensus top QB in this upcoming draft. No Luck, no Cam, no Rodgers. This isn't that type of draft.

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14 hours ago, BrickzNY said:

 Time and time again we have learned that if you don't have a QB, you have a sh*tty team. 

Yes, but that doesn't imply a strategy to solve the problem.  Drafting a QB with every 1st round pick (or with every pick) just doesn't work, because there are really only a few QBs you can evaluate at a time.  There just aren't enough reps to go around in practice, and really the only true way to judge them is in games.

And if your team is terrible (at least your offense), it's also hard to evaluate a QB.

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