What are the reasons to not draft Watson?

[Jethead]

Drew Brees and Matt Ryan don't have arms stronger than Watson. Accuracy is more of a concern than arm strength for me. Take him at 6 and let him duke it out with Hack. And, take another one next year if neither one rises up.

[Smashmouth]

3 hours ago, derp said:

Okay, you're entitled to your opinion.

For what it's worth, the analysis shows that no QB who has been below 55mph in the velocity testing at the combine has gone on to a successful NFL career. Period.

where did you get this info from ?

I never even knew velocity was part of the QB testing at the combine.

@JiF is saying it was the Ape with a radar gun and Im thinking he was right

 

[Smashmouth]

Geno Smith is simply not a good QB and hes off the team, can we please put this argument to rest ?

[Gas2No99]

4 hours ago, joewilly12 said:

Glad to see Ritalin is working for you. 

I'm amazed your formaldehyde-preserved fingers are able to type such drivel and STILL continue to clutter this forum with incompetent statements and assumptions that liken to the ramblings of a . . . 

 

 

 

and STAY there! 

[derp]

19 minutes ago, Smashmouth said:

where did you get this info from ?

I never even knew velocity was part of the QB testing at the combine.

@JiF is saying it was the Ape with a radar gun and Im thinking he was right

 

I'll be honest I don't recall where I read it, I read a lot about the draft. Villain posted the list on page 9 of the thread. It's only 9 years of data so it's a relatively new analysis and definitely flawed. But you can look at them and form your own opinions.

I think the 49 mph was probably a bad job of testing. My point is that it's something teams should explore. If they can't find a reason for it or dispute it then its concerning. If you look at the list it's a very low velocity. And the track record, albeit a short one, is poor for guys with low velocity. Which makes sense. I think I read somewhere that 3 mph equates to a yard on a 20 yard throw, and that's a pretty big deal with how small NFL windows are.

[Gas2No99]

15 minutes ago, derp said:

I'll be honest I don't recall where I read it, I read a lot about the draft. Villain posted the list on page 9 of the thread. It's only 9 years of data so it's a relatively new analysis and definitely flawed. But you can look at them and form your own opinions.

I think the 49 mph was probably a bad job of testing. My point is that it's something teams should explore. If they can't find a reason for it or dispute it then its concerning. If you look at the list it's a very low velocity.

 

2017 NFL Scouting Combine - QB Velocity

So, the QB velocity numbers are out from the 2017 NFL Scouting Combine and let’s just say there’s reason to be both intrigued and concerned. If you don’t follow my good friend Ben Allbright, you should. That said, if you do, you know that arm strength is important when scouting NFL quarterbacks. And while velocity does not necessarily preclude success, not meeting the NFL threshold of 55mph has been dooming for nearly every QB ever. 

When you look at the list below, the biggest concern and eye popping result is Deshaun Watson coming in at 49mph. 

Unless he has an injury we don’t know about, this is extremely concerning and in my opinion, should plummet him down Cleveland’s board as a first round consideration. I’m not about to bet on the exception proving the rule wrong when it comes to QB’s in the AFCN, especially in Cleveland. Consider that Cody Kessler threw 55mph (yet many want to call him noodle arm) and even Dak Prescott and and Tyrod Taylor, with shoulder injuries, threw above 50mph. 

HERE is the google doc that tracks every QB velocity since 2008

 

 

 

 

Fabian Washington agrees that inches make a huge difference: 

 

I know there are a ton of factors that people are going to want to explain away here but the bottom line is that NFL teams hold this threshold for a reason. Sure, you can process the game quickly and get rid of the ball quickly, but ultimately, throwing at 49mph is going to catch up to you quickly on Sundays.

I was warming up to the idea of Watson to the Browns (He’s a good kid and a good leader from what I’ve gathered) but for me now more than ever, this is an indicator that the Browns should not use their #12 pick on Watson. In fact it only strengthens my case (not solely based on his velocity, mind you) to take Mahomes, no matter what. 

Another good friend, Montel Hardy, breaks it down further: 

QBs who also thre 49 mph at the combine: Josh Johnson, Dan LeFevour, Tony Pike, and you guessed it... Mike Glennon.

— Montel Hardy (@MontelNFL) March 10, 2017

[derp]

14 minutes ago, Gas2No99 said:

 

2017 NFL Scouting Combine - QB Velocity

So, the QB velocity numbers are out from the 2017 NFL Scouting Combine and let’s just say there’s reason to be both intrigued and concerned. If you don’t follow my good friend Ben Allbright, you should. That said, if you do, you know that arm strength is important when scouting NFL quarterbacks. And while velocity does not necessarily preclude success, not meeting the NFL threshold of 55mph has been dooming for nearly every QB ever. 

When you look at the list below, the biggest concern and eye popping result is Deshaun Watson coming in at 49mph. 

Unless he has an injury we don’t know about, this is extremely concerning and in my opinion, should plummet him down Cleveland’s board as a first round consideration. I’m not about to bet on the exception proving the rule wrong when it comes to QB’s in the AFCN, especially in Cleveland. Consider that Cody Kessler threw 55mph (yet many want to call him noodle arm) and even Dak Prescott and and Tyrod Taylor, with shoulder injuries, threw above 50mph. 

HERE is the google doc that tracks every QB velocity since 2008

 

 

 

 

Fabian Washington agrees that inches make a huge difference: 

 

I know there are a ton of factors that people are going to want to explain away here but the bottom line is that NFL teams hold this threshold for a reason. Sure, you can process the game quickly and get rid of the ball quickly, but ultimately, throwing at 49mph is going to catch up to you quickly on Sundays.

I was warming up to the idea of Watson to the Browns (He’s a good kid and a good leader from what I’ve gathered) but for me now more than ever, this is an indicator that the Browns should not use their #12 pick on Watson. In fact it only strengthens my case (not solely based on his velocity, mind you) to take Mahomes, no matter what. 

Another good friend, Montel Hardy, breaks it down further: 

QBs who also thre 49 mph at the combine: Josh Johnson, Dan LeFevour, Tony Pike, and you guessed it... Mike Glennon.

— Montel Hardy (@MontelNFL) March 10, 2017

Thanks, that's one of the better tweets I read on this. Think the Washington tweet was interesting and really brought a lot of the points home.

I think it needs time to normalize/build on the data and it would be good if the NFL released this with other combine stuff. But it's definitely interesting.

[#27TheDominator]

How many QBs drafted since 2008 have had "successful careers"?  

 

[derp]

9 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

How many QBs drafted since 2008 have had "successful careers"?  

 

That's why I think it needs time to normalize. Not enough data points. Looking at it in a different light, the two who are starters right now below 55mph are Tyrod Taylor and Prescott and Prescot was at 54mph with a shoulder injury.

There are busts above and below the threshold but not much success below. Above you have guys like Cam and Wilson above who are obviously solid - Mariota and Winston have promise, Dalton isn't special but at least stuck as a starter. Cousins looks good.

First round busts Locker, Ponder, Manuel are below with Locker and Manuel at 54mph exactly. With the small data set I think that threshold was picked somewhat arbitrarily as Cam and Wilson are right above.

Still think it's an interesting analysis that should be continued and the 49mph is concerning if accurate.

[HessStation]

The arm strength comments are all over the place. I think the overarching consensus from scouts is somewhere really close to, not a rocket but certainly strong enough. 

[joewilly12]

40 minutes ago, Gas2No99 said:

I'm amazed your formaldehyde-preserved fingers are able to type such drivel and STILL continue to clutter this forum with incompetent statements and assumptions that liken to the ramblings of a . . . 

 

 

 

and STAY there! 

Look in the mirror 

[HessStation]

The MPH during the combine is only telling me that he was probably focusing more on timing and placement during drills than letting it rip. It's concerning but only to a certain degree. For one, it's not a true or final verdict of arm strength  especially given the isolated environment. 

 

A somewhat bigger concern is can he make a completion if his first read isn't open....especially given that he doesn't process a canon. A ton on players before him have done it, Brees, Brady etc. 

 

not worth finding out w the 6th pick imo, but can certainly end up being a franchise QB. 

 

 

[joewilly12]

36 minutes ago, HessStation said:

The MPH during the combine is only telling me that he was probably focusing more on timing and placement during drills than letting it rip. It's concerning but only to a certain degree. For one, it's not a true or final verdict of arm strength  especially given the isolated environment. 

 

A somewhat bigger concern is can he make a completion if his first read isn't open....especially given that he doesn't process a canon. A ton on players before him have done it, Brees, Brady etc. 

 

not worth finding out w the 6th pick imo, but can certainly end up being a franchise QB. 

 

 

Sheldon Richardson Arrested After Going 143 MPH

What did that MPH get him and us?

[SenorGato]

1 hour ago, #27TheDominator said:

How many QBs drafted since 2008 have had "successful careers"? 

My first thought and question too.

[T0mShane]

2 hours ago, Jet Life said:

41 turnovers in 38 games and a weak arm

At least we'd be prepared for it.

[Matt39]

2 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

 Never mind that he isn't good, he can't stay on the field.

Yeah well besides that.

[T0mShane]

1 hour ago, HessStation said:

The MPH during the combine is only telling me that he was probably focusing more on timing and placement during drills than letting it rip. It's concerning but only to a certain degree. For one, it's not a true or final verdict of arm strength  especially given the isolated environment. 

 

A somewhat bigger concern is can he make a completion if his first read isn't open....especially given that he doesn't process a canon. A ton on players before him have done it, Brees, Brady etc. 

 

not worth finding out w the 6th pick imo, but can certainly end up being a franchise QB. 

 

 

Jets fans are fighting amongst themselves over the prospect of drafting a quarterback whose weakness is throwing the football. 

[NoBowles]

7 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Jets fans are fighting amongst themselves over the prospect of drafting a quarterback whose weakness is throwing the football. 

There are Jets fans STILL claiming Geno is good

[SenorGato]

3 hours ago, Jet Life said:

41 turnovers in 38 games and a weak arm

Also 116 TD's and a 67.4% completion rate

[Gas2No99]

1 hour ago, joewilly12 said:

Look in the mirror 

incredible, you can't post a picture of a meat slab from a supermarket aisle, but an anal sphincter of Joe Willy's dearly beloved fapping material is permissible? 

Look old man, try NOT to post your weird fetishes on this thread. As I stated earlier, amazing how you pollute this forum constantly with asinine comments (pun intended) and now you post your perverted lustful beastialtiy longings for your ol' favorite Mr. Ed.  

[joewilly12]

6 minutes ago, Gas2No99 said:

incredible, you can't post a picture of a meat slab from a supermarket aisle, but an anal sphincter of Joe Willy's dearly beloved fapping material is permissible? 

Look old man, try NOT to post your weird fetishes on this thread. As I stated earlier, amazing how you pollute this forum constantly with asinine comments (pun intended) and now you post your perverted lustful beastialtiy longings for your ol' favorite Mr. Ed.  

Dude grow up if you dish it out be prepared to take it. 

No fetishes just pure comedy geared directly at you the guy who likes to bust others balls but hates it when they respond in a negative manner back. 

Its a joke like most of your posts. 

[thadude]

3 hours ago, Jethead said:

Drew Brees and Matt Ryan don't have arms stronger than Watson. Accuracy is more of a concern than arm strength for me. Take him at 6 and let him duke it out with Hack. And, take another one next year if neither one rises up.

Accuracy is Watson's bigger issue 

[JohnnyLV]

To me Mahomes, Webb and Trubisky are all MUCH better PRO candidates. I think Watson will flop hard. I am also not convinced that Prescott will continue his play of last year.

[Gas2No99]

9 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

Dude grow up if you dish it out be prepared to take it. 

No fetishes just pure comedy geared directly at you the guy who likes to bust others balls but hates it when they respond in a negative manner back. 

Its a joke like most of your posts. 

Here Here!

 

I enjoy our banter. It's like corresponding to a living Piñata typing on the internet! 

 

9 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

No fetishes just pure comedy geared directly at you the guy who likes to bust others balls but hates it when they respond in a negative manner back. 

Its a joke like most of your posts. 

 I apparently hit a nerve, LOL. 

 

I do think some of my posts are funny. Calm down JW, I went to a Prep school full of privileged kids who resided in Riverdale and Fieldston in the Bronx, if I can take it from those entitled hypocrites, I can take it from you and dish it back with ease. 

[Bugg]

21 hours ago, T0mShane said:

You really, really, really want to put this guy in the Jets locker room to help balance out all the me-first losers on the roster, by the arm talent is pretty meh and there's a better than aberage chance we'll be in position to draft one of the big three guys next year. If Watson was there in round two, you could deal with it. But at 6? It'd be dicey AF

True. Simply would love to see a serious good guy who wants to win and would not deal well with teammates going through the motions. Taking him at 6 probably does preclude taking a QB next year. Don't buy all the hokey intangible gritty nonsense, but Watson is a winner. He may not have the upside of Darnold but he has potential to be a solid pro QB. 

[thadude]

Just now, Bugg said:

True. Simply would love to see a serious good guy who wants to win and would not deal well with teammates going through the motions. Taking him at 6 probably does preclude taking a QB next year. Don't buy all the hokey intangible gritty nonsense, but Watson is a winner. He may not have the upside of Darnold but he has potential to be a solid pro QB. 

Watson's ceiling is Alex Smith

 

And I wouldn't want Alex Smith even though he's way better than any Qb we had since Favre

[Gas2No99]

9 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

To me Mahomes, Webb and Trubisky are all MUCH better PRO candidates. I think Watson will flop hard. I am also not convinced that Prescott will continue his play of last year.

The Sanchez effect? Sufficient with a STACKED and talented team at KEY positions, but really just a game manager who will be exposed once Wayne Hunter is the RT?

[JohnnyLV]

5 minutes ago, Gas2No99 said:

The Sanchez effect? Sufficient with a STACKED and talented team at KEY positions, but really just a game manager who will be exposed once Wayne Hunter is the RT?

I think there is some of that yes and also I think teams catch up to QBs in their second years. I dont see sustained franchise level play from him.

[CanadienJetsFan]

The guy seems like a winner and no doubt a leader. But that was in college. Most, if not all, experts think that he's not going to become a successful qb at the pro level.

Conclusion, he's a project. We have projects already on the roster. Pass.

Light a candle and hope that he's still available at #6 and that some desperate team trades up with us.

One can only hope this comes true, we can use a few breaks going our way this draft.

 

[flgreen]

5 minutes ago, CanadienJetsFan said:

The guy seems like a winner and no doubt a leader. But that was in college. Most, if not all, experts think that he's not going to become a successful qb at the pro level.

Conclusion, he's a project. We have projects already on the roster. Pass.

Light a candle and hope that he's still available at #6 and that some desperate team trades up with us.

One can only hope this comes true, we can use a few breaks going our way this draft.

 

Yeah, I'd suspect Cleveland normally, but the guy running the show now seems to know what he's doing.  

[Gas2No99]

3 minutes ago, CanadienJetsFan said:

The guy seems like a winner and no doubt a leader. But that was in college. Most, if not all, experts think that he's not going to become a successful qb at the pro level.

Conclusion, he's a project. We have projects already on the roster. Pass.

Light a candle and hope that he's still available at #6 and that some desperate team trades up with us.

One can only hope this comes true, we can use a few breaks going our way this draft.

 

Correct. Just like Tebow, Ty Detmer, Tommy Frazier, Charlie Ward, etc. 

 

I'm coming to the conclusion that it's REALLY a matter of ONE's AGE and "having seen it before" TENS of times to competently understand as to WHY Watson is NOT an attractive Top 10 QB prospect, let alone draft pick.

I can only rationalize that those who can not "get" why Watson has detractors is because those neophytes haven't seen this movie before unlike the rest of the older fans who have.

Really?!?!? 13 pages?!?!?!? unreal. 

 

 

[Pointdexter]

5 minutes ago, CanadienJetsFan said:

The guy seems like a winner and no doubt a leader. But that was in college. Most, if not all, experts think that he's not going to become a successful qb at the pro level.

 

QB's who are "consensus losers" among the experts are generally not projected in the top half of the first round. I don't know who these experts are you speak of, but obviously not the guys who have Watson going rd 1.

[flgreen]

9 minutes ago, Pointdexter said:

QB's who are "consensus losers" among the experts are generally not projected in the top half of the first round. I don't know who these experts are you speak of, but obviously not the guys who have Watson going rd 1.

More then likely he'll go round one.  More then likely he'll go to a team that has a QB, who might be aging.  Luxury pick.  Just in case.  Kid does have a lot of positives.  He's going to interview real well.

Just not at 6.  When you take a QB at 6 you have to invest 3-5 years into him............  To high a chance Watson will fail

[Gas2No99]

10 minutes ago, Pointdexter said:

QB's who are "consensus losers" among the experts are generally not projected in the top half of the first round. I don't know who these experts are you speak of, but obviously not the guys who have Watson going rd 1.

you realize that people who are "experts" in regards to the NFL draft are just as correct as any poster on this forum because it is ALL SUBJECTIVE opinion and speculation. 

If Watson were to stay ANOTHER year in college and be part of the 2018 QB draft class, he'd be regarded as a 4th rounder according to the experts. That's why he, and Trubisky, SEIZED the opportunity to CASH IN on a WEAK QB class in 2017 & entered what is a $hit crop of QB prospects. 

 

Those who are 100% SOLD on Watson going in the Top 10 haven't been watching American Football long enough and have only been exposed to the $HIT QB play PLAGUING 'Merica since the late 90's. FACT.

[RutgersJetFan]

13 pages. In a day. Good lord.