Jets Hope Going Small in Draft has big Impact

[JetNation]

In his first three years as Jets GM, Mike Maccagnan has made a habit out of drafting players from the Power 5 conferences. His only Division II pick through three drafts has been linebacker Dylan Donahue out of West Georgia. In 2018 Jets hierarchy went outside of the box and took a chance on a few more players from smaller schools.

Four of their six selections were spent on small program, under the radar players. Nathan Shepherd (Fort Hays St.), Parry Nickerson (Tulane), Folorunso Fatukasi (UConn), and Trenton Cannon (Virginia St.) will all be looking to prove that they belong in the National Football League.

As most fans know, Division I players from the top conferences play against some of the best Collegiate competition. Although the jump to the NFL is still a big difference for them, the gap is not as wide as it is coming from a lower level DI or DII school. But just because these prospects are coming from a smaller program doesn’t mean that they can’t end up being quality NFL players.

Gang Green’s talented youngsters may need more time to develop because of the jump in competition, but many successful NFL players have made the transition from Division II schools to the pros. Cornerbacks Malcolm Butler and Janoris Jenkins, and defensive end William Hayes have had solid pro careers just to name a few. However, the odds are still stacked against them.

Only a handful of prospects have ever been drafted out of Fort Hays and Virginia State. It will be a bit of a culture shock for the likes of Shepherd and Cannon to acclimate to the level of competition in the NFL. Of course, all players are different so it remains to be seen how their game will end up translating to the pros.

Shepherd was the first Division II prospect to be selected in this year’s draft and the first player to be drafted out of Fort Hays since 1987. While some thought he was a reach in the third-round, the Jets hope that the 6’4″ 315-pound defensive lineman will let his play answer those questions.

He was almost unblockable in college with 27 tackles for a loss and 10 sacks from 2015-2017. He’ll find NFL offensive lineman much more difficult to shed though, especially coming from a DII college. Shepherd has a high motor and does not take any plays off. If he puts forth the same effort and intensity that he has his whole career, he should end up being a solid player for the Jets in the years to come.

Cannon is a speedy running back that made a living out of making opposing defenders miss in the open field during his days at Virginia State. Not only can he be a change of pace back for Gang Green, but he can also play a key role on special teams returning kicks.

However, he has a small frame at 5’11” 185-pounds and may be in for a rude awakening in the NFL. Defenders will be stronger and faster than his competition was with Virginia St, but he was still worth taking a flier on with a sixth-round pick.

Another small school product, Parry Nickerson showed big play ability at Tulane.

Parry Nickerson and Folorunso Fatukasi came out of Tulane and UConn respectively. Both are Division I schools that play in the American Athletic Conference, which isn’t exactly the highest level of competition. Players from these schools such as running back Matt Forte and safety Tyvon Branch have actually gone on to have successful careers in the NFL which is more than can be said for Fort Hays and Virginia.

Nickerson and Fatukasi’s transitions to the pros should be a little smoother than their fellow draft mates. Nickerson should have no trouble keeping up with opposing receivers with his blazing speed, but he’ll find the receivers in the NFL are light-years ahead of his opposition at Tulane. He must also improve his tackling, especially when he is matched up against much bigger receivers or tight ends.

Fatukasi was also a disruptive force along the defensive line at the collegiate level like Shepherd was. He racked up 45 tackles, 7.5 for a loss, and 4 sacks in 2017 at Connecticut. He has a massive frame at 6’4″ 318-pounds and was often double-teamed because of his size and strength. However, he won’t be seeing much of that in the NFL until he can prove otherwise. Fatukasi, like Shepherd, will quickly learn that NFL offensive lineman will be much more difficult to move than his competition in the AAC.

Mike Maccagnan identified his targets and made the moves that he had to make to get them, regardless of their school background. He hasn’t had much middle round draft success with big school players so he will hope that he has better luck with this year’s draft crop, finding some diamonds in the rough. But it can be a tall task to rely on and to try to build a team with small school players.

The odds are slim that his late round picks will be able to contribute immediately as they are projects that will need time to flourish. However, even though they may not be ready to help the team in year one, they should be able to take the time to adapt to such a big jump to the pros. It’ll be up to the Jets coaching staff to develop their talented players into starters in the NFL.

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[The Crusher]

Well it’s worked so well so far.

Oh shit, not a Darron Lee thread, my bad. 

[BurnleyJet]

8 hours ago, The Crusher said:

Well it’s worked so well so far.

Oh sh*t, not a Darron Lee thread, my bad. 

The D-linemen we drafted are Big Boys, even by your standards.

I think Fatukasi will be our starting NT in 2019, and Shepard will make you forget Mo Wilkerson even in the good years. A Development year for both this year. I expect both will get more playing time as the season progress's.

[The Crusher]

22 minutes ago, BurnleyJet said:

The D-linemen we drafted are Big Boys, even by your standards.

I think Fatukasi will be out starting NT in 2019, and Shepard will make you forget Mo Wilkerson even in the good years. A Development year for both this year. I expect both will get more playing time as the session progress's.

I’m a BIG FATkasi fan already so I agree. 

[NYDreamer]

"Four of their six selections were spent on small program, under the radar players. Nathan Shepherd (Fort Hays St.), Parry Nickerson (Tulane), Folorunso Fatukasi (UConn), and Trenton Cannon (Virginia St.) will all be looking to prove that they belong in the National Football League."

While I love the players we selected and if they play well it wont matter were they played.  My only question is, if they were "under the radar players" doesn't that mean you can assume they would be there at later selections or priority free agents while giving your team an opportunity to select an edge rusher or Offensive Tackle to protect the Franchise QB?

[JohnnyLV]

Nathan Shephard was NOT a reach, he was actually slightly under-drafted.

[bostonmajet]

This 'movement' is hopefully due in a large part to the improvement of our scouting. The Darnold story showed us that often scouting starts more than a year before the draft. Also, covering smaller schools is harder because of the shear number and that their isn't as much available hype about these players to help whittle the field down.

Mac's first year used Idzik's scouting team. Let's say it took a year or two more to get our scouts to the point where they have the ability and bandwidth to scout the smaller programs. That could explain why last year was the first selection and this year there are more. While this year appears to be great for drafting QBs and RBs, it was not very good for other positions. Also, no picks in the 3rd and you have a greater need to try and find the hidden gem.

Hopefully these guys will make the team and contribute.

[RutgersJetFan]

Almost unblockable! ALMOST BITCHES. 

[T0mShane]

8 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Almost unblockable! ALMOST BITCHES. 

You ever try to block someone who’s almost unblockable! It’s almost impossible 

[Larz]

These guys were under the radar for fans, but not for scouts 

Nickerson and shepherd were both mid round prospects 

[Larz]

Uconn had sent 39 guys to the NFL it's not Quinnipiac 

[NYs Stepchild]

12 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

You ever try to block someone who’s almost unblockable! It’s almost impossible 

I tried to block you but it didn't take.

[rangerous]

8 hours ago, BurnleyJet said:

The D-linemen we drafted are Big Boys, even by your standards.

I think Fatukasi will be out starting NT in 2019, and Shepard will make you forget Mo Wilkerson even in the good years. A Development year for both this year. I expect both will get more playing time as the session progress's.

that's why it's such a crap shoot.  richard dent was an 11 th rounder back in 83.  he turned out pretty well.  jerry rice came out of a small school.  scott mesereaux went to southern CT, another small school.  it's all about getting the big fish in the small pond.

[#27TheDominator]

8 hours ago, BurnleyJet said:

The D-linemen we drafted are Big Boys, even by your standards.

I think Fatukasi will be our starting NT in 2019, and Shepard will make you forget Mo Wilkerson even in the good years. A Development year for both this year. I expect both will get more playing time as the season progress's.

Is Fatukasi putting on 30 lbs?  I don't see him playing the nose at 314.  

[pointman]

The jump from d2 to d1 is massive. The jump from d2 to NFL? Long long long shot. 

[slats]

4 hours ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Almost unblockable! ALMOST BITCHES. 

He’s a bowling ball with butter knives. 

[jetstream23]

9 hours ago, BurnleyJet said:

The D-linemen we drafted are Big Boys, even by your standards.

I think Fatukasi will be our starting NT in 2019, and Shepard will make you forget Mo Wilkerson even in the good years. A Development year for both this year. I expect both will get more playing time as the season progress's.

I hope you're right.  But there were similar comments and hopes about guys like Deon Simon after he was drafted but before his first season.

I'm cautiously optimistic about our DLinemen but need to wait and see.

[BurnleyJet]

34 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Is Fatukasi putting on 30 lbs?  I don't see him playing the nose at 314.  

Our current starting NT

http://www.nfl.com/player/stevemclendon/2507590/profile

be sure to check his weight out..

[TuscanyTile2]

8 hours ago, NYDreamer said:

"Four of their six selections were spent on small program, under the radar players. Nathan Shepherd (Fort Hays St.), Parry Nickerson (Tulane), Folorunso Fatukasi (UConn), and Trenton Cannon (Virginia St.) will all be looking to prove that they belong in the National Football League."

While I love the players we selected and if they play well it wont matter were they played.  My only question is, if they were "under the radar players" doesn't that mean you can assume they would be there at later selections or priority free agents while giving your team an opportunity to select an edge rusher or Offensive Tackle to protect the Franchise QB?

It's funny because every year after the draft we all talk ourselves into our picks.  I remember Macc's 1st draft when everyone was giddy over Devin Smith and thought "finally we have a GM who knows players".

I'm not trying to put this draft down btw.  I actually like it too.  I especially like the late round picks with great speed (at least they have 1 exceptional ability!)  like Nickerson and Cannon.  And apparently some rated Fatukasi much higher than he was taken so that sounds like he has some potential.  With these late round picks they should be swinging for the fences.  I'm just saying that it's "a bit early" to judge.

Btw, I remember being a little disappointed that Cannon "only" (IIRC) ran a 4.40 40.  Nowadays it feels like there are a lot of players who run that.  The true blazers run in the 4.2x range (pretty sure that's the case).  

 

[slats]

Wasn’t there an article posted here recently that determined that small school guys and guys who were injured the year they declared fared much better as pros as later round picks than big school guys who dropped? 

[#27TheDominator]

20 minutes ago, BurnleyJet said:

Our current starting NT

http://www.nfl.com/player/stevemclendon/2507590/profile

be sure to check his weight out..

That's interesting.  I thought he was bigger.  I guess that is why they keep guys like Pennell and Simon around.  I know that they moved McClendon around a bit and he only played a bit less than 1/2 the snaps - still significantly more than Simon (2016) or Pennell (2017).

[#27TheDominator]

4 minutes ago, slats said:

Wasn’t there an article posted here recently that determined that small school guys and guys who were injured the year they declared fared much better as pros as later round picks than big school guys who dropped? 

I don't think it was that fared better as pros, so much as the real hits all came from that group.  Not necessarily a better chance at a fringe player, but more likely a hit.

11 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Btw, I remember being a little disappointed that Cannon "only" (IIRC) ran a 4.40 40.  Nowadays it feels like there are a lot of players who run that.  The true blazers run in the 4.2x range (pretty sure that's the case).  

I don't think anybody ran a 4.2 anything at the combine this year. There were a few 4.3s, including Nickerson, but only on RB ran sub-4.4, 5'8" 198 lb Nyheim Hines ran 4.38. Cannon ran his at a pro-day and those can vary wildly based on track, hand-timing, etc.  

[TuscanyTile2]

9 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

I don't think it was that fared better as pros, so much as the real hits all came from that group.  Not necessarily a better chance at a fringe player, but more likely a hit.

I don't think anybody ran a 4.2 anything at the combine this year. There were a few 4.3s, including Nickerson, but only on RB ran sub-4.4, 5'8" 198 lb Nyheim Hines ran 4.38. Cannon ran his at a pro-day and those can vary wildly based on track, hand-timing, etc.  

You're probably right but there are definitely several in the NFL who run 4.2x.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/19520414/ranking-nfl-fastest-players-2017

 

In another article, I read that Eli McGuire has blazing speed. 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2745276-ranking-the-nfls-fastest-players-with-the-ball-in-their-hands#slide5

[#27TheDominator]

15 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

You're probably right but there are definitely several in the NFL who run 4.2x.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/19520414/ranking-nfl-fastest-players-2017

 

In another article, I read that Eli McGuire has blazing speed. 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2745276-ranking-the-nfls-fastest-players-with-the-ball-in-their-hands#slide5

Don't be so sure, or believe everything you read. 

McGuire does not have "blazing speed."  He ran a 4.56.  This nonsensical attempt to get mph during a play from bleacher report is kind of silly.

The times in the other article are also sketchy.  Ross did run a 4.22, one of the fastest ever.  Likewise Nelsons 4.28 and Goodwin's 4.27.  Cooks 4.33, The rest?  Pro day times.  Gabriel wasn't at the combine and his pro-day had 40 had a 20 mph tailwind.  It was reported as 4.4 or 4.27-4.52. Ginn is super fast, but he didn't run at the combine because of a foot injury and his pro day times were listed at 4.37-4.45.  I am not sure where they got the 4.28 from, but it is possible.  Tyreek Hill is certainly a rocket, and ran fast, but that is another pro day time. Grant a blazer, but he is 165 lbs and that is another pro day time.  Beckham ran 4.43 and they claim he is 10th fastest in the NFL. My point is not that Cannon is the fastest, but guys have been timed slower and are considered super fast.

I trust the combine times for comparative purposes because they are electronically timed.  They still are probably best used only year to year.  The 40 isn't the only measure - Beckham had a sick cone or shuttle.  Change of direction and explosiveness are probably more important. I think Cannon's shuttle was good, but his 3-cone kind of sucked. 

[#27TheDominator]

1 hour ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

You're probably right but there are definitely several in the NFL who run 4.2x.

BTW, if you like blazing speed, keep your eye out for #35 on the Jets.  He is a WR converted to CB that supposedly ran a 4.19.  His speed is no joke, it has kept him earning checks in Canada and on practice squads since 2013.  We can take the pro-day 40 with a grain of salt, but an 11'5" broad and 42" vert?  Whoa!

 

[TuscanyTile2]

3 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

BTW, if you like blazing speed, keep your eye out for #35 on the Jets.  He is a WR converted to CB that supposedly ran a 4.19.  His speed is no joke, it has kept him earning checks in Canada and on practice squads since 2013.  We can take the pro-day 40 with a grain of salt, but an 11'5" broad and 42" vert?  Whoa!

 

Crazy!  I've never even heard of this guy.  A lot of times it doesn't translate but it's worth a shot.

[#27TheDominator]

1 hour ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Crazy!  I've never even heard of this guy.  A lot of times it doesn't translate but it's worth a shot.

Well, he is kind of an interesting case.  He got some looks coming out of school and was on a bunch of practice squads. He went up to Canada and had a 1,000 yard season in 2015.  He came back in 2016 and got a shot with the Vikings - he is from Minnesota.  They dumped him and he apparently showed up at one of those veteran's combines as a CB.  He must have shown well because they signed him back.  He got chopped in final cuts and the Jets signed him to the practice squad after a week or two.  I've never seen him play, but he's done some damage as a returner in Canada - 14 yards per punt return, though I think the wider Canadian field probably suits a burner.  He was not an effective returner in college and was a high school RB.  Maybe one of the Canadian guys has a review?  @Beerfish maybe?

His story reminds me of Saalim Hakim, who got a cup of coffee with the Jets and was kicking around the league as recently as 2016.  Athletes this fast get plenty of shots. FWIW, the 4.19 was unofficial, but most scouts had him in the 4.2s or 4.3s.  Here is another view.  Looks faster from this angle. 

https://youtu.be/HbW3gmqRA64

 

[varjet]

I actually do not think that the Jets 2018 had any reaches.  The players picked were at or below were expected.

Mac had reached as recent as 2017.   I think Adams was a reach.  Stewart was a reach.  The CBs were reaches, in that they should have been UDFAs.  

I think the Jets' FO is doing better.  Hopefully someone can step in for Heimerdinger in the role of Voice of Reason when he leaves.