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Greenbean on how Jets fans view Sam Darnold

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4 hours ago, Patriot Killa said:

His overall stats just don’t look good but I see so much hope and promise when I sit down and watch an actual game.

I realize that not everyone is big on data, however it's worth noting that when hope and promise do not translate into any sort of data, that's bad.

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Darnold can make mistakes and has made mistakes and will continue to make mistakes. I just don’t care right now. The kid is working a miracle behind the worst offensive line I’ve ever seen. He’s demonstrated an incredible ability to learn and improve. From fixing his college fumbling issue, to tightening his release, to throwing the ball away more often. He is a baby, he will get to the elite level. He’s already has multiple long game stretches of elite play. Did you know that 43% of Darnolds career INTs have come in 3 games? My issue is that every mistake is magnified to an absurd level. Take the Miami game... a good game by Sam that is talked about as some disaster because he threw an ugly pick. I also don’t think there are “factions”... 90% of people here are on the right side, there are just 10 or so very loud trolls that like to stir things up. 

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14 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

I realize that not everyone is big on data, however it's worth noting that when hope and promise do not translate into any sort of data, that's bad.

I want to answer this, but first I need to know if you watched the whole video?

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12 minutes ago, nico002 said:

Darnold can make mistakes and has made mistakes and will continue to make mistakes. I just don’t care right now. The kid is working a miracle behind the worst offensive line I’ve ever seen. He’s demonstrated an incredible ability to learn and improve. From fixing his college fumbling issue, to tightening his release, to throwing the ball away more often. He is a baby, he will get to the elite level. He’s already has multiple long game stretches of elite play. Did you know that 43% of Darnolds career INTs have come in 3 games? My issue is that every mistake is magnified to an absurd level. Take the Miami game... a good game by Sam that is talked about as some disaster because he threw an ugly pick. I also don’t think there are “factions”... 90% of people here are on the right side, there are just 10 or so very loud trolls that like to stir things up. 

Did you watch the whole video?  Also, do you still give us 6 months or did we get an extension yet?  :)

 

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34 minutes ago, GREENBEAN said:

There's always next time man. :) 

/looks at 14 in Green's Posts

/looks at my own posts....

:-k

Why does he get to be the famous one?

\\:D/

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Good job Greenbean! I’m right where you are. My 14 year old son sides with Nico btw. Not that he ever visits the site- but Sam can do no wrong- ever! I still think Sam can be a real good Jet. Not seeing HOF level here - but if Douglas can build the  core of the team the right way....Sam will be just fine.

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17 minutes ago, Warfish said:

/looks at 14 in Green's Posts

/looks at my own posts....

:-k

Why does he get to be the famous one?

\\:D/

Don’t worry, I really want you as part of my faction. We all can’t be a born leader though.

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17 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

My guess is @14 in Green  either paid @GREENBEAN  or its a Senior Citizens thing. :cheers:

Joe you’re 57? That’s easily AARP eligible, buddy. 😉 senior discounts are a great thing, embrace them!

Quick story.

On my 50th birthday, I told my daughter “I guess I’m officially middle aged”. The brat replied, “unless you’re planning to live until 100, you’re not middle aged, you’re old.”

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21 minutes ago, Gibby said:

Good job Greenbean! I’m right where you are. My 14 year old son sides with Nico btw. Not that he ever visits the site- but Sam can do no wrong- ever! I still think Sam can be a real good Jet. Not seeing HOF level here - but if Douglas can build the  core of the team the right way....Sam will be just fine.

Ah, they can still be so naive at 14, can’t they? 😜

Actually it’s great that he loves Sam. When I was as old as him and @nico002, I worshiped Namath. He could do no wrong.

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2 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

Ah, they can still be so naive at 14, can’t they? 😜

Actually it’s great that he loves Sam. When I was his age I worshiped Namath. He could do no wrong.

and i was busy making excuses for Richard Todd.... :-(

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2 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

56

Did you make it that big so all you old timers can read it?

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Just now, Drums said:

Did you make it that big so all you old timers can read it?

Yes because they always complain when I post an article. 

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12 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

Yes because they always complain when I post an article. 

bold strategy cotton, let’s see if it pays off.

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1 hour ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Yes, worth noting:

1. I wanted Darnold and was happy the Jets lucked into him. I still think you make that pick 10 times out of 10.

2. Greenbean is focusing on the conventional numbers, isolated within one situation. I guess if you want to classify raw numbers as data then that's fine but people who actually track data don't use those numbers for anything more than compiling other numbers that actually say things. DVOA and DYAR are the greatest examples of this. Even more importantly, extrapolating one raw number and interpreting it as the aggregate is problematic for so many reasons. Reality is Darnold's numbers from Sunday didn't move the needle at all. I'm not saying this to be mean and I apologize in advance if it comes off that way, but people who actually know about data and statistics never discuss numbers like Greenbean is discussing them except when explaining how not to discuss numbers.

^Also just a heads up, Greenbean is a nice dude and seems knowledgable otherwise and eloquent and his beard is fantastic. Honestly not saying this to be a dick.

That's nice and all but let's remember this isn't a statistics message board nor are we scientists who's passion it is to measure the never ending corridors of reasoning and probability.  What DVOA and the rest really are is a proxy to what we're really interested in which is a football game. no one really cares about the stats without the game. So the game is what I'm talking about. I've spent countless hours with statisticians in my career and while wonderful and powerful insight has been offered, more often than not, the science creates more questions. Which is fun for the statistics guys and the motivation for the creation of a still deeper more analytical method to be explored.   Hence DVOA and DYAR (DYAR???? lol) 

For context, let's talk about the measurements that get guys into the HOF. Is it Yards? TDs? Tackles? INT's?  Championships? Or is it a deeper valuation of the athlete's likely hood to get 6 yards on a second down, in their own territory when down by more than 2 scores?  Sure knowing information such as my archaic example here can be helpful when trying to understand specific tendencies etc, but it's not fun for the casual fan of which I am. An obsessive message board fan, but casual fan none the less when comparing to stats guys. 

A good example is how matt Ryan just became the 10th player in NFL history to throw for 50,000 yards. There were memes and articles and blurbs and tweets all over the place heralding this major accomplishment.  It's the yards. It's a big one. It's what fans really care about. 

So anyhoo... just thought I'd chime in. I'm no scientist to be sure and I'm not even all that smart when it all boils down, but I like football. I know a thing or two about it and I like to talk about it. So that's what I have to offer. And then there's my beard... 

And to think I thought you'd come around when we stopped driving the car while recording. hahaha  

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1 hour ago, 14 in Green said:

Joe you’re 57? That’s easily AARP eligible, buddy. 😉 senior discounts are a great thing, embrace them!

Quick story.

On my 50th birthday, I told my daughter “I guess I’m officially middle aged”. The brat replied, “unless you’re planning to live until 100, you’re not middle aged, you’re old.”

hahaha that's awesome! 

100 is doable man!!! 

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55 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

and i was busy making excuses for Richard Todd.... :-(

You and me both. It was really Kenny O for me though. That was my dude. 

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1 hour ago, Maxman said:

Did you watch the whole video?  Also, do you still give us 6 months or did we get an extension yet?  :)

 

I think he’s withholding judgement until you decide what to do about that crusher guy...

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Well done Greenbeen. We will get a lot more info on Sam tonight in terms of whether he is progressing in dealing with better teams and national games. I am as always excited.

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1 hour ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Yes, worth noting:

1. I wanted Darnold and was happy the Jets lucked into him. I still think you make that pick 10 times out of 10.

2. Greenbean is focusing on the conventional numbers, isolated within one situation. I guess if you want to classify raw numbers as data then that's fine but people who actually track data don't use those numbers for anything more than compiling other numbers that actually say things. DVOA and DYAR are the greatest examples of this. Even more importantly, extrapolating one raw number and interpreting it as the aggregate is problematic for so many reasons. Reality is Darnold's numbers from Sunday didn't move the needle at all. I'm not saying this to be mean and I apologize in advance if it comes off that way, but people who actually know about data and statistics never discuss numbers like Greenbean is discussing them except when explaining how not to discuss numbers.

^Also just a heads up, Greenbean is a nice dude and seems knowledgable otherwise and eloquent and his beard is fantastic. Honestly not saying this to be a dick.

We want this gentleman in the analytics dept of “The Faction”, @Warfish

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1 hour ago, Losmeister said:

and i was busy making excuses for Richard Todd.... :-(

You’re in “The Faction” also.

We will give @JiF a special revolving membership. He gets to be in one week, and out the next. 😜 He runs our “Bakery” dept full time though

 

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13 minutes ago, GREENBEAN said:

That's nice and all but let's remember this isn't a statistics message board nor are we scientists who's passion it is to measure the never ending corridors of reasoning and probability.  What DVOA and the rest really are is a proxy to what we're really interested in which is a football game. no one really cares about the stats without the game. So the game is what I'm talking about. I've spent countless hours with statisticians in my career and while wonderful and powerful insight has been offered, more often than not, the science creates more questions. Which is fun for the statistics guys and the motivation for the creation of a still deeper more analytical method to be explored.   Hence DVOA and DYAR (DYAR???? lol) 

For context, let's talk about the measurements that get guys into the HOF. Is it Yards? TDs? Tackles? INT's?  Championships? Or is it a deeper valuation of the athlete's likely hood to get 6 yards on a second down, in their own territory when down by more than 2 scores?  Sure knowing information such as my archaic example here can be helpful when trying to understand specific tendencies etc, but it's not fun for the casual fan of which I am. An obsessive message board fan, but casual fan none the less when comparing to stats guys. 

A good example is how matt Ryan just became the 10th player in NFL history to throw for 50,000 yards. There were memes and articles and blurbs and tweets all over the place heralding this major accomplishment.  It's the yards. It's a big one. It's what fans really care about. 

So anyhoo... just thought I'd chime in. I'm no scientist to be sure and I'm not even all that smart when it all boils down, but I like football. I know a thing or two about it and I like to talk about it. So that's what I have to offer. And then there's my beard... 

And to think I thought you'd come around when we stopped driving the car while recording. hahaha  

 

I actually felt bad about it because this one was from in your office and I felt responsible for it.

So far as the Hall, who knows. Those guys won't vote Klecko in, so screw them.

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2 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

We want this gentleman in “The Faction”, @Warfish

Methinks the Factions are Fractionated

Image result for fractionating column

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4 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

the casual fan of which I am.

Knows his Dr Seuss, obviously  :-)

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33 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

We want this gentleman in the analytics dept of “The Faction”, @Warfish

Do we get a cool membership card or something?

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I actually felt bad about it because this one was from in your office and I felt responsible for it.
So far as the Hall, who knows. Those guys won't vote Klecko in, so screw them.

I’m Just playin man. The last few have been without the movement aspect. Like I said before it wasn’t something that we were Married to. It just happened to be what we did. I certainly don’t hold any animosity toward it or you. Just to be clear and all.



Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

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5 hours ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Yes, worth noting:

1. I wanted Darnold and was happy the Jets lucked into him. I still think you make that pick 10 times out of 10.

2. Greenbean is focusing on the conventional numbers, isolated within one situation. I guess if you want to classify raw numbers as data then that's fine but people who actually track data don't use those numbers for anything more than compiling other numbers that actually say things. DVOA and DYAR are the greatest examples of this. Even more importantly, extrapolating one raw number and interpreting it as the aggregate is problematic for so many reasons. Reality is Darnold's numbers from Sunday didn't move the needle at all. I'm not saying this to be mean and I apologize in advance if it comes off that way, but people who actually know about data and statistics never discuss numbers like Greenbean is discussing them except when explaining how not to discuss numbers.

^Also just a heads up, Greenbean is a nice dude and seems knowledgable otherwise and eloquent and his beard is fantastic. Honestly not saying this to be a dick.

That is a really good post.  I asked if you watched the video because I am into data. And I was working on getting an additional view on the YouTube stats lol.

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I get a "young Alan Alda" vibe from hearing you talk Beanzie.

Now I picture Hawkeye Pierce narrating your posts.LMAO!

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18 hours ago, Warfish said:

/looks at 14 in Green's Posts

/looks at my own posts....

:-k

Why does he get to be the famous one?

\\:D/

 

BUT YOU ARE ALREADY FAMOUS IN THESE PARTS!

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17 hours ago, GREENBEAN said:

hahaha that's awesome! 

100 is doable man!!! 

It will take that long for the Jets to get to a superbowl anyway.  

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Just came across this. Worth a look, imho.

Chris Trapasso @ CBS sports.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/grading-nfls-next-generation-of-quarterbacks-drew-lock-shines-on-the-road-lamar-jackson-does-enough-in-win/

He does an analysis of the young QBs on a game by game basis.

Good throw section/Bad throw section/Summary/Grade

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