Potential Cap Cuts

[KRL]

Some interesting names:

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/02/10/super-bowl-liv-kansas-city-chiefs-breakdown-of-key-defensive-plays

 

The next phase of the NFL offseason is one that can get a little ugly: It’s time for teams to look at the bottom line and decide which players aren’t worth the freight anymore.

Some cuts could come as early as this week. More will land during the combine, and some won’t happen until free agency starts. But they’re coming and, to prepare, teams are compiling watch lists of guys that could be on the chopping block. And I went to some of those teams to collect names. So here, then, is our own Watch List.

Bengals QB Andy Dalton (cap savings if cut: $17.7 million): Zac Taylor’s plan is to be upfront and honest with Dalton, and the truth is that the team has to weigh the idea of having the outgoing franchise quarterback as the bridge to the next one. The Giants made it work last year, so the idea of it isn’t exactly unprecedented.

Broncos QB Joe Flacco (cap savings: $12.25 million): The expectation, as of right now, is that Drew Lock will enter the spring as the team’s starter, making Flacco, due $20.25 million in cash in 2020, way too expensive to keep around as a backup.

Panthers QB Cam Newton (cap savings: $17.1 million): Carolina has been steadfast in saying that any decision on Newton will have to wait until there’s a clearer picture of his health. And the Panthers probably won’t have that until he’s recovered from his January surgery—probably sometime in March.

Falcons RB Devonta Freeman (cap savings: $3.5 million): Freeman’s issues since signing his deal in 2017 (he hasn’t posted a 1,000-yard season since and averaged 3.6 yards per carry in 2019) are another cautionary tale on paying backs. Atlanta will have to carry $6 million in dead money. But given their cap situation, every dollar counts.

Titans RB Dion Lewis (cap savings: $4.04 million): The emergence of Derrick Henry marginalized Lewis’ role and made his 2020 cap charge of $5.16 million a non-starter. Lewis turns 30 in September and might have his best chance to latch on with another Patriot-connected coach (Detroit? Giants?).

49ers RB Jerrick McKinnon (cap savings: $4.8 million): Thanks to a 2018 ACL injury and resulting complications, McKinnon still has yet to make his Niners debut, and the team has paid him more than $15 million over those two years. It’s not hard to see the writing on the wall here.

Cardinals RB David Johnson (cap savings: n/a): And I say not available based on the fact that Johnson’s $10.2 million base salary for 2020 has already vested. That makes it pretty unlikely the team would cut him, even though he’s disappointed since signing his deal. If they could trade him? That’s a different story, and I’d guess they would consider that.

Chiefs WR Sammy Watkins (cap savings: $14 million): This feels like a cost-of-doing-business thing for the Chiefs. They overpaid on Watkins because he was a good fit for their young quarterback in 2018, and that young QB was on a rookie deal. Now, Mahomes is about to get paid, they need room—and they have Watkins’ younger, cheaper replacement (Mecole Hardman) on hand.

Dolphins WR Albert Wilson (cap savings: $9.5 million): Wilson had 351 yards and a single touchdown last year, so this is a relatively simple decision. Could Wilson go back to KC and take Watkins’s roster spot?

Jaguars WR Marqise Lee (cap savings: $5.25 million): Lee finished the season with three catches and on IR, and he has been a massive disappointment since signing a four-year, $34 million deal prior to the 2018 season.

Buccaneers TE Cameron Brate (cap savings: $6 million): The Bucs have worked hard to develop OJ Howard, and Bruce Arians’s offense just isn’t that tight end–friendly. That makes paying Brate starters’ money a little difficult, even if he remains a good player.

Bears TE Trey Burton (cap savings: $5.05 million): Chicago has a tight cap situation, and Burton’s coming off a rough year that ended on IR. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Bears conduct a complete overhaul at his position.

Packers TE Jimmy Graham (cap savings: $8 million): It’s not like Graham can’t play anymore; his production just no longer matches his financials. As a sidebar: It’d be fun to see him back in New Orleans.

Bengals OL Cordy Glenn (cap savings: $6.3 million): This one’s fairly easy. Glenn doesn’t want to be there. Jonah Williams is coming back. Glenn is gone.

Broncos G Ron Leary (cap savings: $8.5 million): Leary has missed 19 games in three years as a Bronco. That, and his big number, exposes him—though he should be able to find work quickly in a lineman-needy NFL.

Browns DE Olivier Vernon (cap savings: $11.5 million): Sacks aren’t everything, but it’s tough to carry a pass-rusher about to turn 30 at over $15 million coming off a season in which he had just 3.5 of them.

Jaguars DL Marcell Dareus (cap savings: $13.2 million): The former third overall pick finished the season on IR, turns 30 in March, and plays for a team working through cap issues. Dareus can still play. He just probably won’t be doing it for the Jags.

Panthers DL Dontari Poe (cap savings: $10 million): This is pretty straightforward. Barring a pay cut, it’s hard to see Poe back for Matt Rhule’s first year in charge.

Vikings DE Everson Griffen (cap savings: $13.8 million): Griffen’s been a great Viking, but he has endured a tough couple years and is 32 years old. He has gas left in the tank—he had eight sacks last year—but Minnesota’s troublesome cap situation would make it tough to bring him back even with a pay cut.

Giants LB Alec Ogletree (cap savings: $10.4 million): It may be tough for a new coach to walk away from a team captain, but Ogletree is paid like a top-five off-ball linebacker despite not playing like one. OT Nate Solder is another name that came up when I asked around, but my sense is that he’ll make it to 2020 on roster, based on the logistics of his contract, the team’s depth at his position and his background with new coach Joe Judge.

Browns LB Christian Kirksey (cap savings: $7.45 million): Kirksey played in nine games the last two years. So that should be that.

Steelers LB Vince Williams (cap savings: $969K): Yeah, it’s not much savings. But Pittsburgh is not paying $4 million in cash for some they just turned into a part-timer.

Bears LB Leonard Floyd: The Bears thought a breakout season was coming from Floyd in 2019. Instead, he finished with three sacks. I’m sure GM Ryan Pace and coach Matt Nagy would like to give the former top-10 pick another year. The trouble, for the cap-strapped Bears, is that his $13.2 million lump-sum option for 2020 would be an easy place to yield a significant amount of financial breathing room.

Vikings CB Xavier Rhodes (cap savings: $8.1 million): Maybe Rhodes can turn it around in his 30s. But he’s been trending downward for a couple years now, and he was the subject of trade discussions last spring. He’s due $10.5 million in 2020. He won’t be making that much in Minnesota, no matter how shaky their corner situation is.

Jets CB Trumaine Johnson (cap savings: $3 million): His contract was perhaps the biggest misstep of the Mike Maccagnan era in New York. How big? Cutting him means taking on $12 million in dead money. And it remains a no-brainer.

Redskins CB Josh Norman (cap savings: $12.5 million): Norman had his best years playing for Rivera, and the two have a good relationship. Whether they can work out a deal for him to stay at a lower number remains to be seen.

Saints CB Janoris Jenkins (cap saving: $11.25 million): With a lot of moving pieces at corner, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Saints make a play to keep Jenkins. But I can’t imagine it will be at $11.25 million. In fact, when New Orleans claimed him in December it was under the premise that it was, at most, a two-month rental, because of his big 2020 number.

Dolphins S Reshad Jones (cap savings: $7.495 million): Injuries limited Jones to four games last year. It’s not the first time he’s been banged up, making his number (nearly $16 million) just too high.

[rangerous]

watkins to replace anderson?  a little shorter, a little slower.  a little better catch rate.  other than him the jets should be looking at the two guards at least for depth.

[bealeb319]

watkins to replace anderson?  a little shorter, a little slower.  a little better catch rate.  other than him the jets should be looking at the two guards at least for depth.

Watkins statistically is no better than Anderson. Watkins also publicly said he needs time away from football to fix his health both physically and mentally.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using JetNation.com mobile app

[Jetsfan80]

Not interested in a single player on that list.  Not one.

There's a reason these guys get cut. 

[jetstream23]

None of these guys help the Jets build towards the future. 

[The Crusher]

12 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Not interested in a single player on that list.  Not one.

There's a reason these guys get cut. 

Somebody’s learning from the Jets mistakes. 

[Scott Dierking]

4 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

Somebody’s learning from the Jets mistakes. 

And the Jets roster is apparently, secretly loaded.

[sec101row23]

Paying RBs just isn’t worth it.  Look at that list, and then consider the Gurley contract as well.  

[#27TheDominator]

Didn't Gase have some success with Albert Wilson?  Seems like a likely fit.  Already knows the offense.  I know there was some piece floating about Gase demanding they trade him, but that comes from a Manish hit piece.  Take it for what you want.  Seems like the TEs might be a decent fit, but they already have decent TEs locked up, so probably cheap.  

[The Crusher]

12 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

And the Jets roster is apparently, secretly loaded.

Too many old guys that don’t want to play anymore. That’s the point I think. We need to thoroughly ver anyone who’s cut from another team because we have our share of country club members on our team. 

[Jetsfan80]

12 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

And the Jets roster is apparently, secretly loaded.

Yes and this is a great reason to go out and sign other teams' trash.  That totally won't get us into further trouble or anything.  

[Scott Dierking]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Yes and this is a great reason to go out and sign other teams' trash.  That totally won't get us into further trouble or anything.  

It all depends on the length and value of the deal.

If you can get someone on a relatively cheap, "prove it" one year deal., those can be very advantageous. 

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, Scott Dierking said:

It all depends on the length and value of the deal.

If you can get someone on a relatively cheap, "prove it" one year deal., those can be very advantageous. 

1 year to prove they suck.  Sign me up!

[ljr]

always wondered why all of these moves don't happen until after the draft (or at least anything not a "no brainer".  (besides just being a nice guy) what is the reason all of the teams don't keep the borderline players until after they see who they get in the draft? 

[Scott Dierking]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

1 year to prove they suck.  Sign me up!

1 year for them to actually care about football, and more so to earn another contract-for the right player, absolutely sign me up.

Motivation is the best predictor of possible success. Granted, doesn't always work, and you have to pick your spots.

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, ljr said:

always wondered why all of these moves don't happen until after the draft (or at least anything not a "no brainer".  (besides just being a nice guy) what is the reason all of the teams don't keep the borderline players until after they see who the get in the draft? 

Frees up cap space to spend in March when free agency opens.  

[ljr]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Frees up cap space to spend in March when free agency opens.  

thx!

(sorry, not sure all the details of the cap ... I assume the teams are not allowed to go over the cap then by signing a FA in March and then make their decisions on how best to get back under it after they know the players they draft?)

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, ljr said:

thx!

(sorry, not sure all the details of the cap ... I assume the teams are not allowed to go over the cap then by signing a FA in March and then make their decisions on how best to get back under it after they know the players they draft?)

No they can go over the cap to sign players.  Not sure the date by which they need to get back under though.  

But cap casualty types almost never net a draft pick.  So there's no point in holding onto them to try to make a trade.  Everyone knows they're getting cut.  

[ljr]

3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

No they can go over the cap to sign players.  Not sure the date by which they need to get back under though.  

But cap casualty types almost never net a draft pick.  So there's no point in holding onto them to try to make a trade.  Everyone knows they're getting cut.  

 

guess I am just thinking about the cases where a team has a player in which they keep him/cut him decision is close enough to have whether they do/don't draft a guy at that position matter (they don't want to go FA, as just like us, one team's trash is NOT another team's treasure) 

maybe that is how it works and I'm just thinking teams are having to make this decision more often than they actually do

 

thx again!

[KRL]

If we pick up a free agent pass rusher or one in the draft I wouldn't mind
bringing in Leonard Floyd to see if we could catch lightning in a bottle

[JoJoTownsell1]

A couple of those defensive players would be solid depth and maybe could catch lightning in a bottle. The offensive guys look old and slow. 

[JoJoTownsell1]

1 hour ago, rangerous said:

watkins to replace anderson?  a little shorter, a little slower.  a little better catch rate.  other than him the jets should be looking at the two guards at least for depth.

A guy that couldn't do much with Mahomes is not a guy I want to replace Anderson.

[Ohio State NY Jets fan]

Seems like there are more examples of players signing big contracts and mailing it in - thought it was just the Jets but seems like a larger issue - not sure if it's players not caring about football and cashing in (FA fools gold) or players realizing that they are set for life financially and don't need to work hard anymore

plus the few players with health concerns retiring early - I guess Revis and Tru retired on the field...

DL and RB contracts also an issue, 30 seems like the a long career for these guys

[Beerfish]

2-3 years from now Jamal Adams will be on that list.  Having got that out of the way......

A lot of guys in that list that looked so good for a few years and then just disappeared.   What the hell happened to David Johnson other than injuries.

[Lith]

3 hours ago, ljr said:

always wondered why all of these moves don't happen until after the draft (or at least anything not a "no brainer".  (besides just being a nice guy) what is the reason all of the teams don't keep the borderline players until after they see who they get in the draft? 

Some of these guys may have salary that guarantees in March, at or shortly after start of the league year.  Using Trumaine Johnson as an example, his 2020 salary ($11MM) is guaranteed if he is still on roster as of 3/20/20.  Gotta cut him before then.  I am sure there are other players with similar situations.

[Jetsfan80]

3 hours ago, Beerfish said:

2-3 years from now Jamal Adams will be on that list.  Having got that out of the way......

A lot of guys in that list that looked so good for a few years and then just disappeared.   What the hell happened to David Johnson other than injuries.

He's a RB and that's what happens to RBs not named Frank Gore.  

[IndianaJet]

5 hours ago, ljr said:

thx!

(sorry, not sure all the details of the cap ... I assume the teams are not allowed to go over the cap then by signing a FA in March and then make their decisions on how best to get back under it after they know the players they draft?)

All teams must be under the cap the first day of the new league year, which is the same day as the opening of free agency.

This year that is March 18th.  So you can't sign a FA and be over the cap, then cut someone sometime later.  Only the top 51 contracts on your roster count toward the cap during this time period.

https://operations.nfl.com/football-ops/league-governance/2019-20-important-nfl-dates/

 

 

Quote

 

March 18	Prior to 4:00 p.m., New York time, clubs must exercise options for 2020 on all players who have option clauses in their 2019 contracts.
	Prior to 4:00 p.m., New York time, clubs must submit qualifying offers to their Restricted Free Agents with expiring contracts to retain a Right of First Refusal/Compensation.
	Prior to 4:00 p.m., New York time, clubs must submit a minimum salary tender to retain exclusive negotiating rights to their players with expiring 2019 contracts who have fewer than three accrued seasons of free agency credit.
	Top 51 Rule begins. All clubs must be under the 2020 Salary Cap prior to 4:00 p.m., New York time.
	All 2019 player contracts will expire at 4:00 p.m., New York time.
	The 2020 league year and free agency period begin at 4:00 p.m., New York time.
	The first day of the 2020 league year will end at 11:59:59 p.m., New York time, on March 18. Clubs will receive a personnel notice that will include all transactions submitted to the league office during the period between 4:00 p.m., New York time, and 11:59:59 p.m., New York time, on March 18.
	Trading period for 2020 begins at 4:00 p.m., New York time, after expiration of all 2019 contracts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[IndianaJet]

One other thing to remember about all the guys listed in the original post.

Free Agents who's contracts have expired - can't be signed by a new team until the start of Free Agency -  March 18th at 4:00 p.m.

Guy who get cut with time still left on their contracts are automatically free agents and can be signed by another team at any time.

So, for example - River and Brady have expiring contracts.  If they don't re-up with their teams by March 18th, they become FA at 4:00.  No one else can sign them before this date.

If Trumaine Johnson is cut today - he can sign with a new team 5 minutes later.

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, Lith said:

Some of these guys may have salary that guarantees in March, at or shortly after start of the league year.  Using Trumaine Johnson as an example, his 2020 salary ($11MM) is guaranteed if he is still on roster as of 3/20/20.  Gotta cut him before then.  I am sure there are other players with similar situations.

Yep. Why do you think they IR'd him when they had the first excuse to do it? He could have returned to the field eventually, but then they'd have run the risk of him sustaining an injury he could legitimately milk through March 20th, thus guaranteeing that $11MM. 

The only thing guaranteed now is that he'll get cut by March 19th (unless they can find someone brain-dead enough to take on his contract, even if it's only for a conditional pick). Not likely, but I suppose it's technically possible a team would give up a very late pick IF they're able to agree on a renegotiated deal with him, and are willing to give up that pick for a little time of exclusive negotiating. But it seems unlikely; T.Johnson would likely do better for himself by fielding offers from multiple suitors not just one. 

[section314]

3 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Yep. Why do you think they IR'd him when they had the first excuse to do it? He could have returned to the field eventually, but then they'd have run the risk of him sustaining an injury he could legitimately milk through March 20th, thus guaranteeing that $11MM. 

The only thing guaranteed now is that he'll get cut by March 19th (unless they can find someone brain-dead enough to take on his contract, even if it's only for a conditional pick). Not likely, but I suppose it's technically possible a team would give up a very late pick IF they're able to agree on a renegotiated deal with him, and are willing to give up that pick for a little time of exclusive negotiating. But it seems unlikely; T.Johnson would likely do better for himself by fielding offers from multiple suitors not just one. 

Where is Casserly when you really need him?

[82nd Airborne]

The list doesn't include OLs; probably NFL's hottest commodity. 

[Sperm Edwards]

14 minutes ago, IndianaJet said:

All teams must be under the cap the first day of the new league year, which is the same day as the opening of free agency.

This year that is March 18th.  So you can't sign a FA and be over the cap, then cut someone sometime later.  Only the top 51 contracts on your roster count toward the cap during this time period.

https://operations.nfl.com/football-ops/league-governance/2019-20-important-nfl-dates/

Wow it's late this year. It'd been in the Mar 9-13 range for a while now (used to be even earlier than that). Didn't even realize it was a week later this year.

[Thai Jet]

7 hours ago, rangerous said:

watkins to replace anderson?  a little shorter, a little slower.  a little better catch rate.  other than him the jets should be looking at the two guards at least for depth.

My money is on Watkins resigning with KC at a reduced rate. They want him back and he wants to be there.

[choon328]

13 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

No they can go over the cap to sign players.  Not sure the date by which they need to get back under though.  

But cap casualty types almost never net a draft pick.  So there's no point in holding onto them to try to make a trade.  Everyone knows they're getting cut.  

All teams have to be under the cap by day 1 of the new league year.  They are not allowed to go over the cap at any point thereafter.  You CAN NOT go over the cap to sign a player or bring a player in via a trade. Teams can be fined up to $5 million for violating this and can also have that contract or trade that took them over the cap rescinded by the league. The 49ers, Steelers and Broncos were all fined and docked draft picks for violating the salary cap rules in this way. 

[bla bla bla]

16 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

None of these guys help the Jets build towards the future. 

Depends what you spend. These guys don't factor into the Comp Pick formula so if you find the right pieces at the right price you can do well. We could potentially let Robby walk, spend all our money on depth from players like this, and get the comp pick from Robby for next year.

I agree with the overall sentiment though that none of these guys give me a chubby haha