Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
The Crimson King

Economic Effect

Recommended Posts

I think that this deserves an separate discussion. 

What will be the economic effect coming out of the crisis? 

You will have the spiraling effect of; businesses not being able to restart - unemployment - less disposable income - further businesses failing etc.?

Are we looking at the next great depression in the short term?

In the long term, how about the already over mortgaged future of the younger generation vis-à-vis the national debt which has now increased and will continue to do so?

Does the US dollar get devalued?

Just asking anyone who has pro expertise in this matter. Interested in intelligent responses

 

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The big banks and the fed have made dire statements about unemployment   They have also said the recovery could be Quick 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, southparkcpa said:

As a CPA , I am predicting that 25 percent of all small businesses won’t make it through this.  Small gyms, restaurants, bars are easy to understand but other businesses are affected.  I have a printing client , owns his building and leases a part to a music store.  The music store has been DEAD for a month, can’t pay its rent, he can’t pay his mortgage, has laid off all staff. 
 

This will change us forever. Businesses have learned that they don’t need so much space , etc.  
 

This stimulus package? Will create inflation. 

The impact this is going to have on commercial real estate is going to be huge.

We don't need to be in offices to the extent we were years ago. Not everyone but a lot of corporate jobs can be full time remote. Everyone is working from home, and not everyone will be going back to an office when this is done.

  • Upvote 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Larz said:

The big banks and the fed have made dire statements about unemployment   They have also said the recovery could be Quick 

 

 

I think the recovery will be quick in the sense that once we go back to moving around people can start spending money. But so many people are unemployed and a recession always has people cautious, so even those with money will be more cautious with spending.

I mentioned commercial real estate in the other post but the normal housing market is going to get hit hard. You are basically going to have multiple months with no sales at all (April, May). Are people going to list their houses in June? No they have been doing projects and painting like crazy. Plus who wants strangers looking in your house in June.

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, southparkcpa said:

As a CPA , I am predicting that 25 percent of all small businesses won’t make it through this.  Small gyms, restaurants, bars are easy to understand but other businesses are affected.  I have a printing client , owns his building and leases a part to a music store.  The music store has been DEAD for a month, can’t pay its rent, he can’t pay his mortgage, has laid off all staff. 
 

This will change us forever. Businesses have learned that they don’t need so much space , etc.  
 

This stimulus package? Will create inflation. 

I'm somewhat in that boat because I'm a VP of a company that is still open and deemed essential. I personally do not go in and can work remotely too a degree, but a few of my employees continue to work......we are also a very small company but growing rapidly. We will definitely be affected in some of the ways you are mentioning.

To be more to the point.....our warehouse is in a commercial area and besides about 2 business out of I don't know how many, the business park is dead. Totally dead. The ripple effects when all of these businesses stop paying their rent is downright scary. Will the entire business district we're in get shut down? It's possible and also feasible.

Besides a few sectors this shutdown will be devastating to the economy long term. We can see it right now with our own eyes, just wait until the economic news keeps trickling in.

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, southparkcpa said:

This stimulus package? Will create inflation. 

Hyper inflation?

Goes along way towards making 25T in debt basically worthless. The only solutions to all the debt were default or devalue, seems like devalue is going to happen.

Putin I've read is trying to end the petrodollar with his oil surplusses which will spell big trouble for the dollar and America in general.

A big part of me feels like this is the end of the American age. BRIC countries have a brighter future. Our prosperity is entirely debt fueled and wasn't sustainable prior to all of this.  Every empire before us has fallen and debt is common culprit. We have record amounts of public, private and corporate debt + a fractured populace.

I think we need to be smart and move to a more targeted approach like SK by the end of the month. Frankly mid month might of been advisable if we have testing capacity in place.

  • Upvote 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting reads guys, keep 'em coming. 

Oddly enough, there seems to be more intelligence on this football board that services a team that only an idiot can be a supporter of than one could reasonably expect :)

  • Upvote 1
  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, CTM said:

Hyper inflation?

Goes along way towards making 25T in debt basically worthless. The only solutions to all the debt were default or devalue, seems like devalue is going to happen.

Putin I've read is trying to end the petrodollar with his oil surplusses which will spell big trouble for the dollar and America in general.

A big part of me feels like this is the end of the American age. BRIC countries have a brighter future. Our prosperity is entirely debt fueled and wasn't sustainable prior to all of this.  Every empire before us has fallen and debt is common culprit. We have record amounts of public, private and corporate debt + a fractured populace.

I think we need to be smart and move to a more targeted approach like SK by the end of the month. Frankly mid month might of been advisable if we have testing capacity in place.

 

Doesn't the military come into play in all on this?  Our Navy still controls the overwhelming majority of the seas on a global level and thus also controls/oversees trade globally.  And our behavior may shift after all of this to try to be more self-sustaining and less dependent on China for products. 

The US plays a direct role in something like 25 % of the global economy.  Where does debt come into play in reducing the US influence?

  • Upvote 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, RobR said:

I'm somewhat in that boat because I'm a VP of a company that is still open and deemed essential. I personally do not go in and can work remotely too a degree, but a few of my employees continue to work......we are also a very small company but growing rapidly. We will definitely be affected in some of the ways you are mentioning.

To be more to the point.....our warehouse is in a commercial area and besides about 2 business out of I don't know how many, the business park is dead. Totally dead. The ripple effects when all of these businesses stop paying their rent is downright scary. Will the entire business district we're in get shut down? It's possible and also feasible.

Besides a few sectors this shutdown will be devastating to the economy long term. We can see it right now with our own eyes, just wait until the economic news keeps trickling in.

What many people don't see, is that 4/5 of  the average small businesses go under in less than 5 years for undercapitalization, bad management, bad cash flow practices etc. In fact, many open a business and should never have.  They don't have the skills, but they think they do.  They are NOT good business people  The ones that remain , in MANY cases, should have closed but the owner is too stubborn.  I have seen  MANY cases of owners making a basic living that had they just gotten a job, would have been better off.   I actually (truth) want to write a small book on this subject.   The average small business retail, wholesale, mfg has less than 1 month cash flow in the bank and an owner who is not equipped to handle this.  

 

 

 

 

  • Upvote 1
  • Post of the Week 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, southparkcpa said:

What many people don't see, is that 4/5 of  the average small businesses go under in less than 5 years for undercapitalization, bad management, bad cash flow practices etc. In fact, many open a business and should never have.  They don't have the skills, but they think they do.  They are NOT good business people  The ones that remain , in MANY cases, should have closed but the owner is too stubborn.  I have seen  MANY cases of owners making a basic living that had they just gotten a job, would have been better off.   I actually (truth) want to write a small book on this subject.   The average small business retail, wholesale, mfg has less than 1 month cash flow in the bank and an owner who is not equipped to handle this. 

Most of the people you're speaking about don't have the necessary skills or degrees to just get a job that would pay a living wage. So they go month to month owning a business and working much harder but at least are able to provide a comfortable life for their families. This is the essence of small business. 

The ones who you would deem qualified to actually own a business aren't looking to go into it to remain small. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Doesn't the military come into play in all on this?

Certainly war is a potential, maybe even likely outcome, not a good one though 

 

7 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

The US plays a direct role in something like 25 % of the global economy. 

Yes our role is to consume, not entirely critical with other parts of the world rapidly raising quality of life standards

We cant environmentally afford to all live like Americans anyway 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, southparkcpa said:

What many people don't see, is that 4/5 of  the average small businesses go under in less than 5 years for undercapitalization, bad management, bad cash flow practices etc. In fact, many open a business and should never have.  They don't have the skills, but they think they do.  They are NOT good business people  The ones that remain , in MANY cases, should have closed but the owner is too stubborn.  I have seen  MANY cases of owners making a basic living that had they just gotten a job, would have been better off.   I actually (truth) want to write a small book on this subject.   The average small business retail, wholesale, mfg has less than 1 month cash flow in the bank and an owner who is not equipped to handle this.  

 

 

 

 

100%, but plenty of bigger business have than 1 month cash flow as well and tons of debt

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

buy bitcoin kiddos. While the feds print trillions causing inflation, bitcoin is reducing the new available supply by 50% every 4 years and has a max of 21 million to ever exist. What's the max number of USD?

  • Thumb Down 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree with all of ya on the fundamental flaws in our economy - too much national and personal debt, too many people in marketing, too many wannabe influencers, not enough people in the trades and definitely not enough domestic manufacturing.

But I’m a bit of an optimist about the economic impacts of this virus - so long as things start to normalize by say June 1st. I think there’s going to be one hell of a rejuvenation come summer - sh*t I know I can’t wait to go out to bars, restaurants, and sporting events as soon as I can. 

  • Upvote 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, southparkcpa said:

What many people don't see, is that 4/5 of  the average small businesses go under in less than 5 years for undercapitalization, bad management, bad cash flow practices etc. In fact, many open a business and should never have.  They don't have the skills, but they think they do.  They are NOT good business people  The ones that remain , in MANY cases, should have closed but the owner is too stubborn.  I have seen  MANY cases of owners making a basic living that had they just gotten a job, would have been better off.   I actually (truth) want to write a small book on this subject.   The average small business retail, wholesale, mfg has less than 1 month cash flow in the bank and an owner who is not equipped to handle this.  

 

 

 

 

well ... it's hard to keep up with those accounting fees (he-he)

 

Another party to blame is the banks. There used to be hard and fast rules about lending. Now they are supporting the undercapitalization of businesses, both small and large by the irresponsible provision of liquidity, then throwing more good money after the bad to kick the problem down the road.

Competition to increase market and wallet share, lack of pro level credit training, cronyism in hiring at top levels and concentration on this year's bonus have resulted in loan portfolio's doomed to fail. Stupid moves like allowing C&I groups to make asset based loans (which requires a real expertise even the leveraged finance groups no longer have) is going to come back to bite them. For the purpose of winning deals, necessary aspects such as covenants, audits and guarantees are being left out of agreements. It is like the man who jumped off the 40 story building. As he passed the 20th floor, he says to himself, "well so far, so good". Not that I feel strongly about this.

Some time ago, I applied to be become a bankruptcy trustee. Got close but would have had to pay my dues in several years of no asset cases.  I am thinking of reviving that effort.

So maybe a good move for a savvy CPA might be to attach himself to those law firms and individuals getting the bankruptcy trustee appointments? Those fees get paid. 

  • Post of the Week 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, Maxman said:

The impact this is going to have on commercial real estate is going to be huge.

We don't need to be in offices to the extent we were years ago. Not everyone but a lot of corporate jobs can be full time remote. Everyone is working from home, and not everyone will be going back to an office when this is done.

Mack Cali has been greasing palms and turning commercial zoning into residential zoning all over the state the past few years.

Much more revenue collecting rent from 350 units 12 times a year rather than one tenant 12 times a year.

 

Hello Phillip

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Economy? Not my field. But I'll tell you what I think about my "industry". The same people who can't praise and thank us enough and call us "heroes" right now will be screaming about my pay and benefits within 16 months...

 

Just like after 9/11. For 2 years, everyone loved Cops and Firemen. Within 5 years TV pundits and journalists were already starting to blame the coming recession on Cop and Firefighter Pension plans.

 

An of course we're in a contract year right now, and I haven't had a raise in 5 years (Topped out Lieutenant, added about 8 different Pro Board Certifications and Specialized Skills in just the last 2 years), and HR just shut down, so my Promotion to Captain was deferred. Maybe for a year. Same sh*t, different day  LOL

 

Whatever. I'll be out there till it either ends, or I get Covid. Whichever comes first. Hooah.

 

 

  • Upvote 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, southparkcpa said:

As a CPA , I am predicting that 25 percent of all small businesses won’t make it through this.  Small gyms, restaurants, bars are easy to understand but other businesses are affected.  I have a printing client , owns his building and leases a part to a music store.  The music store has been DEAD for a month, can’t pay its rent, he can’t pay his mortgage, has laid off all staff. 
 

This will change us forever. Businesses have learned that they don’t need so much space , etc.  
 

This stimulus package? Will create inflation. 

Yes and its so stupid how they are blindly dispensing funds. My wife and I are teachers getting full pay. We have no morgage. We actually are doing better during covid since we arent going out and buying fuel. On top of that we will get the stumulus checks which is just bonus money to us. Were just gonna buy more expensive hardwood adhesive and continue laying our hardwood down.

meanwhile some bartender will get his check and still lose his apartment because its hardly enough to help

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, chirorob said:

I've owned my business for 12 years.  I'm good at it, and have made a good income for a decade.

Throw in a divorce, that cut me down financially.  Now I have child support.  Throw in much of my retirement was in the stock market, and that's half gone.  Real estate will go down, so now I dont have 100k plus in equity.

I did nothing wrong, knew how to run a business, and now I'm looking at being financially destroyed in the next few months for doing nothing wrong.  

I don't piss away money.   Bought my truck cash 4 years ago, dont go on vacation.  

I hear you man. You get penalized for doing the right thing. I make too much for the stimulus check. Same in 2008. Never collected a day of unemployment in my life. I pay a higher tax rate than Bernie Sanders or Donald trump by 2x because I make good money but not enough to have high priced accountants help me hide it. My taxes we raised by the latter this round (single, high earner but not .1% in blue state)  The former will raise them even more (or Biden). Both parties look to squeeze the upper middle class in order to not tax their donor class buddies.

I have about 300k equity in my house, which will be gone soon after defaults and unemployment take the housing market down. I spent most of my life working and saving and this debt jubilee that is happenning now is essentially a huge tax on savers as inflation is going to run rampant. Lliving under my means and building wealth like my great depression era grand father taught me has been a real kick in the nuts. I should've been living above my means all this time with mountains of debt. Can't blame him, he used to get 10% interest but the government has done everything they can to discourage saving and self sufficiency in favor of debt.

The thing is though, I don't think anyone wins in what's coming. What was unsustainable last year (Debt) has now gone completely off the rails.  Ready to move to Brazil or Russia :)

 

 

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

Yes and its so stupid how they are blindly dispensing funds. My wife and I are teachers getting full pay. We have no morgage. We actually are doing better during covid since we arent going out and buying fuel. On top of that we will get the stumulus checks which is just bonus money to us. Were just gonna buy more expensive hardwood adhesive and continue laying our hardwood down.

meanwhile some bartender will get his check and still lose his apartment because its hardly enough to help

The $1200 is about fueling consumption, most people who get it are going to buy and yes it's ridiculous. It should be put towards the PPP loans to keep businesses running and able to cycle up quickly when restrictions get lifted.

 Also a bit about buying votes, I believe Trump wanted to make sure his name was on all of them. Shameless.

I think the jig is up and they are going to crash the currency, how are the millennial and younger ever going to get out of this debt? Before all this interest on the debt was like 10% of the entire federal budget.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

Economy? Not my field. But I'll tell you what I think about my "industry". The same people who can't praise and thank us enough and call us "heroes" right now will be screaming about my pay and benefits within 16 months...

 

Just like after 9/11. For 2 years, everyone loved Cops and Firemen. Within 5 years TV pundits and journalists were already starting to blame the coming recession on Cop and Firefighter Pension plans.

 

An of course we're in a contract year right now, and I haven't had a raise in 5 years (Topped out Lieutenant, added about 8 different Pro Board Certifications and Specialized Skills in just the last 2 years), and HR just shut down, so my Promotion to Captain was deferred. Maybe for a year. Same sh*t, different day  LOL

 

Whatever. I'll be out there till it either ends, or I get Covid. Whichever comes first. Hooah.

 

 

Cops, Teachers, First Responders: Highest contribution to society, least compensated 

Actors, Athletes, Rap Artists: Mansions, top 1% in wealth

(face palm)

True heros are true heros. The first thing I am going to do after the world declares me King (and not just of the Court) is going to make sure this gets fixed

  • Upvote 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, chirorob said:

I've owned my business for 12 years.  I'm good at it, and have made a good income for a decade.

Throw in a divorce, that cut me down financially.  Now I have child support.  Throw in much of my retirement was in the stock market, and that's half gone.  Real estate will go down, so now I dont have 100k plus in equity.

I did nothing wrong, knew how to run a business, and now I'm looking at being financially destroyed in the next few months for doing nothing wrong.  

I don't piss away money.   Bought my truck cash 4 years ago, dont go on vacation.  

This is exactly the type of impact I am suggesting. I'm not talking about new start-ups that keep treading water to stay afloat. I'm talking about small business that is thriving that keeps following all of the rules to keep productivity high and eyes expansion.

This is not the normal business cycle where most new businesses die, This is completely different because it is taking small businesses under that were otherwise doing well. You could follow the book of success and it wouldn't have this Covid 19 chapter.

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, chirorob said:

I've owned my business for 12 years.  I'm good at it, and have made a good income for a decade.

Throw in a divorce, that cut me down financially.  Now I have child support.  Throw in much of my retirement was in the stock market, and that's half gone.  Real estate will go down, so now I dont have 100k plus in equity.

I did nothing wrong, knew how to run a business, and now I'm looking at being financially destroyed in the next few months for doing nothing wrong.  

I don't piss away money.   Bought my truck cash 4 years ago, dont go on vacation.  

But you'll survive... you sound on top of it. Imagine the guy that isn't. You've seen those guys too.  I do/did a lot of chiro's, lawyers etc.  Ever have a question,, second opinioon just PM me. NEVER a fee, just Jets love. :)

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, HighPitch said:

Yes and its so stupid how they are blindly dispensing funds. My wife and I are teachers getting full pay. We have no morgage. We actually are doing better during covid since we arent going out and buying fuel. On top of that we will get the stumulus checks which is just bonus money to us. Were just gonna buy more expensive hardwood adhesive and continue laying our hardwood down.

meanwhile some bartender will get his check and still lose his apartment because its hardly enough to help

I get it but not sure what the answer is.  The government simply throws money at problems.

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, southparkcpa said:

But you'll survive... you sound on top of it. Imagine the guy that isn't. You've seen those guys too.  I do/did a lot of chiro's, lawyers etc.  Ever have a question,, second opinioon just PM me. NEVER a fee, just Jets love. :)

Yeah, but it's a lot harder at 46 then when I was in my 30s  and lost a lot of money when the real estate market crashed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, southparkcpa said:

I get it but not sure what the answer is.  The government simply throws money at problems.

The government makes everything worse.

How about, quarantine the higher risk people and not utterly destroy the economy.  No matter what happens, the airlines and hotels are in trouble.  Hawaii which depends on tourism is in trouble.  Vegas is in trouble.  

Can you imagine what the smaller island countries that depend on tourism are going through?  

  • Post of the Week 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, chirorob said:

The government makes everything worse.

How about, quarantine the higher risk people and not utterly destroy the economy.  No matter what happens, the airlines and hotels are in trouble.  Hawaii which depends on tourism is in trouble.  Vegas is in trouble.  

Can you imagine what the smaller island countries that depend on tourism are going through?  

My friends I met in the Bahamas after the Hurricane are very, very worried about the solvency of their nation, not to mention they depend 100% on supplies from mainland US, and a "shortage" of something here means a total lack over there. 

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/6/2020 at 12:07 AM, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Doesn't the military come into play in all on this?  Our Navy still controls the overwhelming majority of the seas on a global level and thus also controls/oversees trade globally.  And our behavior may shift after all of this to try to be more self-sustaining and less dependent on China for products. 

The US plays a direct role in something like 25 % of the global economy.  Where does debt come into play in reducing the US influence?

AMEN !  I'm really hoping that this is a HUGE 'wake up'  call for  America and that we bring manufacturing back to the U.S. How ironic that this latest plague started in China and most of the PPE that we need for the medical professionals come from China.

  • Upvote 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, Thai Jet said:

AMEN !  I'm really hoping that this is a HUGE 'wake up'  call for  America and that we bring manufacturing back to the U.S. How ironic that this latest plague started in China and most of the PPE that we need for the medical professionals come from China.

3d printing. We can make stuff on demand in large quantities. We just have to be smart about it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hyper inflation?
Goes along way towards making 25T in debt basically worthless. The only solutions to all the debt were default or devalue, seems like devalue is going to happen.
Putin I've read is trying to end the petrodollar with his oil surplusses which will spell big trouble for the dollar and America in general.
A big part of me feels like this is the end of the American age. BRIC countries have a brighter future. Our prosperity is entirely debt fueled and wasn't sustainable prior to all of this.  Every empire before us has fallen and debt is common culprit. We have record amounts of public, private and corporate debt + a fractured populace.
I think we need to be smart and move to a more targeted approach like SK by the end of the month. Frankly mid month might of been advisable if we have testing capacity in place.


It’s funny, back in 1993 as a Sr in HS I had a substitute Social Studies teacher that was filling in for a couple months for the regular teacher. He was going on about the breakup of the Soviet Union, and then began to spend quite a bit of time talking about how that could happen here in the US, and even more alarming was he felt it WOULD happen in our lifetime. Some parents got wind and complained which shut him down from talking about it more, but he said a combination of massive debt and a major catastrophe along with strong political divides would likely be the impetus. He predicted America would divide into 3-5 smaller nations, with the East and west coasts and south coasts established as their own countries with seaports, and the Midwest fighting to join the south so they share that seaport access and more closely share political leanings with the south. It was interesting and stuck with me all these years, and I wonder if these next 20 years bear likeness to his prediction.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Snell41 said:

 


It’s funny, back in 1993 as a Sr in HS I had a substitute Social Studies teacher that was filling in for a couple months for the regular teacher. He was going on about the breakup of the Soviet Union, and then began to spend quite a bit of time talking about how that could happen here in the US, and even more alarming was he felt it WOULD happen in our lifetime. Some parents got wind and complained which shut him down from talking about it more, but he said a combination of massive debt and a major catastrophe along with strong political divides would likely be the impetus. He predicted America would divide into 3-5 smaller nations, with the East and west coasts and south coasts established as their own countries with seaports, and the Midwest fighting to join the south so they share that seaport access and more closely share political leanings with the south. It was interesting and stuck with me all these years, and I wonder if these next 20 years bear likeness to his prediction.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

 

I hear he lives in a commune in Vermont now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  



Content Partnership

Yes Network

Site Sponsor

MILE-Social - NJ Social Media & SEO company
×
×
  • Create New...