Over Under from the Athletic

[Losmeister]

worthwhile, imo...

https://theathletic.com/1821643/2020/05/18/vics-picks-all-the-nfl-season-win-total-predictions-including-my-6-favorites/?source=dailyemail

some zingers...

eg-

Indianapolis Colts — under 8.5, +180 

 

Philip Rivers is often lumped in with the great quarterbacks who switched teams late in their careers. But 18 QBs have either won an MVP or started a Super Bowl since Rivers became a starter in 2006, and he is not one of them. He has really fallen off, and I don’t know if a great offensive line fixes a statue who throws the ball up for grabs. Plus, for all the love that the national media showers on general manager Chris Ballard, the Colts have won 21 games in his three seasons. 

Detroit Lions — under 6.5, -110 

Matt Stafford has a bad back, the schedule is road-heavy early and Matt Patricia might be my early favorite for first coach fired. He keeps signing all of Bill Belichick’s defensive rejects out of New England, rubbing his hands together and yelling “The Patriot Way,” but so far, nothing has happened. 

 

[slats]

@Losmeister - You have to subscribe to read the article, so maybe you could at least post their prediction for the Jets here, too? 

[bitonti]

8 minutes ago, slats said:

@Losmeister - You have to subscribe to read the article, so maybe you could at least post their prediction for the Jets here, too? 

Quote

New York Jets — under 7, -115 

I thought about the over here, as the Jets were the most injured team last season and Adam Gase and sleeper Sam Darnold return for another year together. But I can’t get one thing out of my head: how many players have been much better after leaving Gase, the latest examples being Ryan Tannehill and Kenyan Drake. And road games at the Rams, Chiefs, Colts, Chargers and Seahawks are brutal, even without fans (if that’s how this goes down). 

 

[Losmeister]

12 minutes ago, slats said:

@Losmeister - You have to subscribe to read the article, so maybe you could at least post their prediction for the Jets here, too? 

New York Jets — under 7, -115 

I thought about the over here, as the Jets were the most injured team last season and Adam Gase and sleeper Sam Darnold return for another year together. But I can’t get one thing out of my head: how many players have been much better after leaving Gase, the latest examples being Ryan Tannehill and Kenyan Drake. And road games at the Rams, Chiefs, Colts, Chargers and Seahawks are brutal, even without fans (if that’s how this goes down). 

 

why is Sam being called a "sleeper"....?       sounds like people are lowering their expectations of this player based on his performance so far...

[Bowles Movement]

4 minutes ago, bitonti said:

 

How do you feel about that prediction?   Its off season and no one has been arrested or injured yet but based on the free agent and draft additions, better health, and another year experience for Sam, combined with a weaker division, Id bet the over.

[slats]

7 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

why is Sam being called a "sleeper"....?       sounds like people are lowering their expectations of this player based on his performance so far...

I think it's respect for the ability they believe he has, and understanding just how bad the situation has been for him on the Jets. Sleepers need to awaken, though. 

[bitonti]

betting pre Season future over unders is like flushing money down the toilet

vegas has looked at the schedule, put it through their models based on history, and then offers 1 more win than is likely. 

are they always right? NO. of course not. But if ATS is a 50/50 gamble, these are more like 65/35 shots in favor of the house 

you have imperfect information, wait until like Wednesday of the game week to commit your cash.

that's just my tea sip 

[Losmeister]

35 minutes ago, slats said:

I think it's respect for the ability they believe he has, and understanding just how bad the situation has been for him on the Jets. Sleepers need to awaken, though. 

to me a sleeper is someone who has been underrated who has the chance to outperform their draft position or the general opinion of their ability...     Sam was drafted #3 first round plus 3 2nd rounders...    a sleeper doesnt get picked that high...  that someone you expect excellence from...    

we're being set up to applaud and praise a guy for being an average NFL QB...   that's the odor I am detecting...

[pdxgreen]

2 hours ago, Losmeister said:

worthwhile, imo...

https://theathletic.com/1821643/2020/05/18/vics-picks-all-the-nfl-season-win-total-predictions-including-my-6-favorites/?source=dailyemail

some zingers...

eg-

Indianapolis Colts — under 8.5, +180 

 

Philip Rivers is often lumped in with the great quarterbacks who switched teams late in their careers. But 18 QBs have either won an MVP or started a Super Bowl since Rivers became a starter in 2006, and he is not one of them. He has really fallen off, and I don’t know if a great offensive line fixes a statue who throws the ball up for grabs. Plus, for all the love that the national media showers on general manager Chris Ballard, the Colts have won 21 games in his three seasons. 

Detroit Lions — under 6.5, -110 

Matt Stafford has a bad back, the schedule is road-heavy early and Matt Patricia might be my early favorite for first coach fired. He keeps signing all of Bill Belichick’s defensive rejects out of New England, rubbing his hands together and yelling “The Patriot Way,” but so far, nothing has happened. 

 

Haven't seen a ton of Rivers over the years but watched some his latest film last night. He's great at getting the ball off to a certain space or window despite any varying pressure.  It's ugly but it's like clockwork.  But don't ask him to "sell" anything in the offense other than that.

[slats]

3 minutes ago, pdxgreen said:

Haven't seen a ton of Rivers over the years but watched some his latest film last night. He's great at getting the ball off to a certain space or window despite any varying pressure.  It's ugly but it's like clockwork.  But don't ask him to "sell" anything in the offense other than that.

I've never liked Rivers and feel like the Athletic here nailed it. I can't believe the Colts threw a 39-year-old Rivers $25M guaranteed. I'm expecting disaster. 

[pdxgreen]

3 minutes ago, slats said:

I've never liked Rivers and feel like the Athletic here nailed it. I can't believe the Colts threw a 39-year-old Rivers $25M guaranteed. I'm expecting disaster. 

I wish we had Ekeler.  That dude is YOKED!

[Losmeister]

3 minutes ago, slats said:

I've never liked Rivers and feel like the Athletic here nailed it. I can't believe the Colts threw a 39-year-old Rivers $25M guaranteed. I'm expecting disaster. 

I wouldnt bet either way on Rivers...    such a strange player...

but @pdxgreen  is correct in the way he gets the ball to where the WR will soon be...    he has esrablished several prolific realtions with WRs and TEs....       which to me speaks to a QB who knows how to play well...

[pdxgreen]

6 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

I wouldnt bet either way on Rivers...    such a strange player...

but @pdxgreen  is correct in the way he gets the ball to where the WR will soon be...    he has esrablished several prolific realtions with WRs and TEs....       which to me speaks to a QB who knows how to play well...

He's 6'5', 230 pounds, but throws like Bob Tewksbury in the eye of a hurricane.

[Jet Nut]

1 hour ago, Losmeister said:

New York Jets — under 7, -115 

I thought about the over here, as the Jets were the most injured team last season and Adam Gase and sleeper Sam Darnold return for another year together. But I can’t get one thing out of my head: how many players have been much better after leaving Gase, the latest examples being Ryan Tannehill and Kenyan Drake. And road games at the Rams, Chiefs, Colts, Chargers and Seahawks are brutal, even without fans (if that’s how this goes down). 

 

why is Sam being called a "sleeper"....?       sounds like people are lowering their expectations of this player based on his performance so far...

Because they feel he'll be much better than people think.  That hes a player to watch./

You know, the definition and opposite of your feeling on the guy

[David Harris]

1 hour ago, slats said:

I've never liked Rivers and feel like the Athletic here nailed it. I can't believe the Colts threw a 39-year-old Rivers $25M guaranteed. I'm expecting disaster. 

I’m surprised Brady didn’t end up there. I honestly think he went for the warmer weather. 
 

Ballard has put together a sick roster that would have been in the mix had Luck not surprise retired.  That team is so good on paper.

[Doggin94it]

2 hours ago, bitonti said:

betting pre Season future over unders is like flushing money down the toilet

vegas has looked at the schedule, put it through their models based on history, and then offers 1 more win than is likely. 

are they always right? NO. of course not. But if ATS is a 50/50 gamble, these are more like 65/35 shots in favor of the house 

you have imperfect information, wait until like Wednesday of the game week to commit your cash.

that's just my tea sip 

This opinion makes no sense. If these are 65/35 shots, then either the over or the under is 65% likely to cash, and therefore one is an EXCEPTIONALLY good bet.

The truth is they set these over-unders the way they need to to get roughly equivalent public money coming in on both sides of the equation, so they can profit off of their cut of each bet (more than on "winning" against individual bettors). This isn't a "you against the house" game in the way blackjack or roulette are

[Losmeister]

1 hour ago, Jet Nut said:

Because they feel he'll be much better than people think.  That hes a player to watch./

You know, the definition and opposite of your feeling on the guy

why would people think he won't be good, seeing that he was drafted third plus 3 2nd rounders?

right now, everybody is ready to cheer til they  foam at the mouth if he plays  as  well as Teddy Bridgewater..

 

cos he has been disappointing so far

[slats]

50 minutes ago, David Harris said:

I’m surprised Brady didn’t end up there. I honestly think he went for the warmer weather. 
 

Ballard has put together a sick roster that would have been in the mix had Luck not surprise retired.  That team is so good on paper.

Wow, hadn't thought of it. That'd be like Brady giving Peyton the finger if he could win the big one in a Colts uniform, too. 

[#27TheDominator]

30 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

why would people think he won't be good, seeing that he was drafted third plus 3 2nd rounders?

right now, everybody is ready to cheer til they  foam at the mouth if he plays  as  well as Teddy Bridgewater..

 

cos he has been disappointing so far

I don't get it.  You keep asking, but you answered your own question.

[rangerous]

so basically he is relying of anecdotal evidence to diss gase and then calling the colts game brutal after calling rivers a loser as a qb.  makes no sense.  there are lots of guys who leave their teams and then dump on the coach.  didn't hasty and washington dump on coslet when they left for kc?  coslet was pretty bad and deserved it but here's a case where the players still played well for their new team.

[varjet]

I will take the under on the Jets.  I think the schedule and travel are too bad for the Jets to win that many games.  I think they are a marginally better team with a worse record in 2020.  Gase has assorted meltdowns and misfires and the Jets replace him.

2021 is the bounce back year.  The OL jells and the 2020 rookies get a year of experience.  There is more practice and training post-pandemic.    There is a new coach, likely Bienemy.  The Jets win 10 games and advance 1 round in the playoffs.  

FWIW.  

[Bowles Movement]

2 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

This opinion makes no sense. If these are 65/35 shots, then either the over or the under is 65% likely to cash, and therefore one is an EXCEPTIONALLY good bet.

The truth is they set these over-unders the way they need to to get roughly equivalent public money coming in on both sides of the equation, so they can profit off of their cut of each bet (more than on "winning" against individual bettors). This isn't a "you against the house" game in the way blackjack or roulette are

I was thinking the same  The bookies just want the bets to be close to 50/50 so they get the vig and have no risk  

you can argue that betting on sports or anything else that you dont control and can be corrupted is dumb, but the 65/35 doesnt add up

Thank you!

 

[Jet Nut]

4 hours ago, Losmeister said:

why would people think he won't be good, seeing that he was drafted third plus 3 2nd rounders?

right now, everybody is ready to cheer til they  foam at the mouth if he plays  as  well as Teddy Bridgewater..

 

cos he has been disappointing so far

First of all he was drafted with the 3.  Not the players fault we didn’t have a 3 and had to trade picks to move up. 
Darnold already is better than Teddy, keep telling yourself QBs like Bridgewater and Fitz are better.  It helps to know 

[Chrebetfan80]

8 hours ago, bitonti said:

 

i mean dont get me wrong, all the games listed there are tough games, but every prediction I see always lists the colts and chargers as tough games, and granted they very well may be... those are two really good teams. 

But the jets have done really well against Rivers led teams, so I oddly feel confident agaisnt them.. and the chargers most likely will be playing against a rookie QB.  Maybe I'm just naive, but I just don't feel like those two games scare me on the schedule.  

[batman10023]

7 hours ago, Losmeister said:

to me a sleeper is someone who has been underrated who has the chance to outperform their draft position or the general opinion of their ability...     Sam was drafted #3 first round plus 3 2nd rounders...    a sleeper doesnt get picked that high...  that someone you expect excellence from...    

we're being set up to applaud and praise a guy for being an average NFL QB...   that's the odor I am detecting...

Technically he was either picked third or sixth plus 3 secondrounders. 

[ljr]

13 hours ago, slats said:

 Sleepers need to awaken, though. 

 

 

https://yarn.co/yarn-clip/6453254c-c2b2-44d9-b812-2a2df2c7196e#cBZjT7jp35M.copy

 

 

 

[AFJF]

23 hours ago, bitonti said:

 

That's right about where it should be at the moment.  This team likely wins between 5-8 games.  Putting them at 7 is about what I expected.

[bitonti]

15 hours ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

i mean dont get me wrong, all the games listed there are tough games, but every prediction I see always lists the colts and chargers as tough games, and granted they very well may be... those are two really good teams. 

But the jets have done really well against Rivers led teams, so I oddly feel confident agaisnt them.. and the chargers most likely will be playing against a rookie QB.  Maybe I'm just naive, but I just don't feel like those two games scare me on the schedule.  

it's lunacy to predict schedule game by game in May 

this time last year did anyone have "Sam gets Mono, misses a month" penciled in? 

also I don't know if anyone noticed this but if you shave Jack Nicholson at the end of Shining and put a hat on him, it's Adam Gase 

[Jetsfan80]

16 hours ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

and the chargers most likely will be playing against a rookie QB.  

Certainly a big factor, assuming Herbert has wrestled the job away from Tyrod Taylor by Week 6.

Either way its a west coast trip; a win out west is never a sure bet.

[Chrebetfan80]

34 minutes ago, bitonti said:

it's lunacy to predict schedule game by game in May 

this time last year did anyone have "Sam gets Mono, misses a month" penciled in? 

also I don't know if anyone noticed this but if you shave Jack Nicholson at the end of Shining and put a hat on him, it's Adam Gase 

I mean everything at this time of year is lunacy.. Team additions are mostly settled but there are always late cuts and additions.  This time of year is just ehhhh throw some crap out there and have people debate since its the ultimate lull in the nfl offseason.

Hahaha Its not super far off.  Although Gase is still sporting that beard which, as a bearded man myself, fully endorse. 

not to make this a PSA on beards but..... I couldnt imagine commanding a room of athletes clean shaven... who would respect you?  BEARDS COMMAND RESPECT AND ATTENTION.

[bitonti]

30 minutes ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

I mean everything at this time of year is lunacy.. 

these bets tho, they appeal to the homer fans thinking they can prove the house wrong

neither one has complete information but the house has historical trends, which for whatever reason, have some value 

the Jets have to travel like 31000 miles this season take the under and if they get over that it's a great season and it you bought the win 

emotional hedge

betting on the Jets to win 8+ games on a hope and a dream is a dumb bet at those prices 

you're better off throwing +750 on the Jets to win the AFC East or whatever it's at

if you want to risk a long shot 

[Warfish]

On 5/19/2020 at 10:55 AM, Losmeister said:

to me a sleeper is someone who has been underrated who has the chance to outperform their draft position or the general opinion of their ability...     Sam was drafted #3 first round plus 3 2nd rounders...    a sleeper doesnt get picked that high...  that someone you expect excellence from...    

we're being set up to applaud and praise a guy for being an average NFL QB...   that's the odor I am detecting...

I agree, Sleeper is the wrong word tbqh.  #3 overall picks that cost a bagful of picks just to acquire are hard to call "sleeper" in my book.

The correct word is "disappointing", but I doubt any Jets fan want's to hear THAT.....even if we all know every one of them would have said they'd be disappointed the day that Darnold was picked if they were told he would be a bottom 5 QB his first two years int he league.

[Big_Slick]

16 minutes ago, bitonti said:

these bets tho, they appeal to the homer fans thinking they can prove the house wrong

neither one has complete information but the house has historical trends, which for whatever reason, have some value 

the Jets have to travel like 31000 miles this season take the under and if they get over that it's a great season and it you bought the win 

emotional hedge

betting on the Jets to win 8+ games on a hope and a dream is a dumb bet at those prices 

you're better off throwing +750 on the Jets to win the AFC East or whatever it's at

if you want to risk a long shot 

The house may use those models and historical trends to initially set the line. But it amazes me that knowledgeable people can't understand what @Doggin94it posted.

"The truth is they set these over-unders the way they need to to get roughly equivalent public money coming in on both sides of the equation, so they can profit off of their cut of each bet (more than on "winning" against individual bettors)."

The line is adjusted as the money comes in. Vegas lives off the vig.

[JustInFudge]

On 5/19/2020 at 10:17 AM, slats said:

I think it's respect for the ability they believe he has, and understanding just how bad the situation has been for him on the Jets. Sleepers need to awaken, though. 

I was going to say , I read it as he going under the radar despite going 7-6 on a terrible Football team and improving year over year in every passing category.  Instead of focusing on that, many are focused on turnovers and ghosts, etc. ie; people are sleeping on how well Sam played last year.  

[bitonti]

30 minutes ago, Big_Slick said:

The house may use those models and historical trends to initially set the line. But it amazes me that knowledgeable people can't understand what @Doggin94it posted.

"The truth is they set these over-unders the way they need to to get roughly equivalent public money coming in on both sides of the equation, so they can profit off of their cut of each bet (more than on "winning" against individual bettors)."

The line is adjusted as the money comes in. Vegas lives off the vig.

these long term future bets do not have the volume of ATS bets

just my 2 cents they are not getting hardcore gamblers betting equal money on all 32 teams (like they might ATS) 

these bets are designed for homers optimistic about their team's chances

the house is not getting 50/50 on all sides of these 

like anyone's got an opinion on Jacksonville? 

a smart bet is probably to go under every single time every single team and maybe that's worth a couple buck experiment just to try 

it's the sports betting equivalent of betting against the roller at the craps table 

I for get what that's called. Don't Pass Line?  it's betting with the house