fodder for the anti gase crowd

[SAR I]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

So even though his offenses were ranked 24/29, 29/25, 30/30 and 25/27 in Points/Yards respectively, this was really overachieving?  

What would him underachieving look like?

Run the last 8 games of 2019 once Darnold was recovered from mono and Gase didn't put a grocery clerk under center.

Since most act like Gase is the Jets OC, run the seasons Gase had in Denver with Peyton Manning.

SAR I

[Warfish]

20 minutes ago, SAR I said:

1.  If it happened for Shanahan it can happen for Gase. 

No one would argue that it could possibly happen.

Arguing in any way that it is likely or more likely to happen because it happened to someone else is a textbook logical fallacy.

I.e. that it happened to Shanahan has absolutely no relevance to if it will or will not happen for Gase.

[SAR I]

1 minute ago, Warfish said:

No one would argue that it could possibly happen.

Arguing in any way that it is likely or more likely to happen because it happened to someone else is a textbook logical fallacy.

I.e. that it happened to Shanahan has absolutely no relevance to if it will or will not happen for Gase.

Of course, but the point is that it's not unprecedented for great coaches to have a rough first few years before having a breakout season and its not unprecedented that knee-jerk fans rush to judgement way too quickly.

SAR I

[Warfish]

18 minutes ago, SAR I said:

Run the last 8 games of 2019 once Darnold was recovered from mono and Gase didn't put a grocery clerk under center.

Since most act like Gase is the Jets OC, run the seasons Gase had in Denver with Peyton Manning.

SAR I

This known as the fallacy of incomplete evidence.  i.e. confirmation bias.

We'll see how Darnold and Gase do in 2020. 

Over the full 16-game season.

Without Peyton Manning.

[pdxgreen]

I think Gase either massively overachieves or it's obvious he's an overpromoted, bug eyed OC.  He just doesn't have much leeway with critics and writers any more.  They are aware of all his methods and shortcomings.  He either produces at this pont or he'll get eviscerated.  Four years and one winning record... not many guys get that kind of leeway.

[Warfish]

Just now, SAR I said:

Of course, but the point is that it's not unprecedented for great coaches to have a rough first few years before having a breakout season and its not unprecedented that knee-jerk fans rush to judgement way too quickly.

SAR I

Again, no one would argue that it is "unprecedented".

The fallacy you are engaging in is creating a false relationship between similar turn-arounds having precedent, and it happening for Gase specifically.

As above, this is another form of the fallacy of incomplete evidence.

In point of fact, the odds show that most coaches that start out poorly stay poor performers. 

Only a small minority "turn it around" like Shanahan.

[JetsFanShawn]

ill say this one more time Adam gase sucks as head coach idk  why would the jets    GM woody johnson thinking  of giving  Adam gase all that money in 2020

[SAR I]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

This known as the fallacy of incomplete evidence.  i.e. confirmation bias.

We'll see how Darnold and Gase do in 2020. 

Over the full 16-game season.

Without Peyton Manning.

This is known as the deflection of facts you don't want to face, i.e. chickening out.

Post the numbers for the last 8 Jets games.  It's a great barometer of Darnold and Gase's progress, far better than reaching back for a time when Gase was in Miami and Darnold was getting his learner's permit.

And in Denver Peyton Manning was on his last legs, in fact he praises Gase to the high heavens for designing an offense that suited his post-neck-injury skills leading to his record breaking season.

SAR I

[SAR I]

6 minutes ago, JetsFanShawn said:

ill say this one more time Adam gase sucks as head coach idk  why would the jets    GM woody johnson thinking  of giving  Adam gase all that money in 2020

You don't know anything.  Because if you did, you'd see a stellar 6-2 finish with an XFL-caliber roster and be praising Adam Gase for his coaching skills and praising Christopher Johnson for the foresight to sign him.

Sell your pity party somewhere else, Eeyore.

SAR I

[Warfish]

4 minutes ago, SAR I said:

This is known as the deflection of facts you don't want to face, i.e. chickening out.

[SAR I]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

In point of fact, the odds show that most coaches that start out poorly stay poor performers. 

Actually, the greatest odds for a future great head coach is that he struggles in his first few seasons.  That's a bigtime marker, actually.

Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Bill Walsh, Vince Lombardi, Don Shula, Tom Landry, Chuck Noll, they all had rough starts, the vast majority of all time great head coaches did.

SAR I

[Warfish]

29 minutes ago, SAR I said:

Actually, the greatest odds for a future great head coach is that he struggles in his first few seasons.  That's a bigtime marker, actually.

That's not how statistics work, but I know you know that.  Enjoy your afternoon SAR.

[BurnleyJet]

Bruce Arians  ? 

I have a feeling Tampa are going to disappointed. Those famous Ernie Adams “half time adjustments” aren’t coming any more. 

 

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, BurnleyJet said:

Bruce Arians  ? 

I have a feeling Tampa are going to disappointed. Those famous Ernie Adams “half time adjustments” aren’t coming any more. 

And Brady will learn about how O-Linemen can actually get flagged for holding.  

[BurnleyJet]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

And Brady will learn about how O-Linemen can actually get flagged for holding.  

Plus he’s not in the cake walk AFCE any more. He’s got out as the Bills and Jets are starting to get their sh*t together.

[nyjunc]

42 minutes ago, BurnleyJet said:

Plus he’s not in the cake walk AFCE any more. He’s got out as the Bills and Jets are starting to get their sh*t together.

He made the AFC a cakewalk for the pats, knowing we were all playing for 2nd place.  The falcons are always up and down and the Panthers suck so he's not going to the 2002 AFC East.

[SAR I]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

That's not how statistics work, but I know you know that.  Enjoy your afternoon SAR.

The last 8 games.  Jets go 6-2 with a patchwork offense.  Run the numbers.  Let's see how Gase did.

SAR I

[BurnleyJet]

19 minutes ago, nyjunc said:

He made the AFC a cakewalk for the pats, knowing we were all playing for 2nd place.  The falcons are always up and down and the Panthers suck so he's not going to the 2002 AFC East.

The Saints are one of the Best teams in the league.

[TuscanyTile2]

18 hours ago, nyjunc said:

He's coached 4 seasons in the NFL, in EVERY single one of them his teams overachieved including leading Miami to their only playoff app in a year Brady played since 2002.

You can criticize his offense though he's had made QB issues as a HC. This will be the first time he has a healthy returning QB who is actually good.

Is that what passes for overachieving these days?

https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2019/12/01/new-york-jets-cincinnati-bengals-andy-dalton-sam-darnold-zac-taylor/

Jets Make Dubious NFL History With Loss To Lowly Bengals

Dalton Powers Cincy To 22-6 Victory; Gang Green Becomes First Team To Lose To 2 Teams 0-7 Or Worse In Same Season

[Bowles Movement]

17 hours ago, SAR I said:

Dowell Loggains is the offensive coordinator, so by your logic Darnold's performance has nothing to do with Gase either.

SAR I

Except that he hired the OC and hasn’t fired him.    Not ready to run Gase out of town till I see another year, but your logic is flawed.    
 

[Xtina]

14 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

And Brady will learn about how O-Linemen can actually get flagged for holding.  

You don’t think his special status will carry through to his next team? 

[Ben Had]

18 hours ago, Jetscode1 said:

Remember when Dick Vermeil was almost fired by the Rams?  Who cares what the odds suggest, Coach Gase is our guy.  

Remember when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? 

[Bowles Movement]

17 hours ago, Warfish said:

Again, no one would argue that it is "unprecedented".

The fallacy you are engaging in is creating a false relationship between similar turn-arounds having precedent, and it happening for Gase specifically.

As above, this is another form of the fallacy of incomplete evidence.

In point of fact, the odds show that most coaches that start out poorly stay poor performers. 

Only a small minority "turn it around" like Shanahan.

Belichick 

Carroll

Holmgren

All fired from their first job

Payton 3-13 his first year

Tom Landry 0-11-1 his first year, then 5 wins or less for 5 yrs

Parcells 3-11-1 his first year 

These are all Hall of Fame coaches

Shanahan

Debate that.

 

[nyjunc]

14 hours ago, BurnleyJet said:

The Saints are one of the Best teams in the league.

Yep, they have more talent than probably any team Brady played on but they seem to come up short every year.  They haven't had competition in recent years in the regular season, maybe TB being good makes NO better and tougher for the playoffs?

[nyjunc]

2 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Is that what passes for overachieving these days?

https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2019/12/01/new-york-jets-cincinnati-bengals-andy-dalton-sam-darnold-zac-taylor/

Jets Make Dubious NFL History With Loss To Lowly Bengals

Dalton Powers Cincy To 22-6 Victory; Gang Green Becomes First Team To Lose To 2 Teams 0-7 Or Worse In Same Season

They were 7-9, at one long they were 1-7.  Could easily have quit with all the injuries, suspensions and mono.  If Bowles was still here they win 3-4 games.

Cincinnati was in most of their games, they lost a lot of close games. They were not as bad as their record and neither were the dolphins.

Since you mention Cincy why not mention Pittsburgh and Dallas? Both might have made the playoffs if not for losses to the Jets.

[TuscanyTile2]

Just now, nyjunc said:

They were 7-9, at one long they were 1-7.  Could easily have quit with all the injuries, suspensions and mono.  If Bowles was still here they win 3-4 games.

Cincinnati was in most of their games, they lost a lot of close games. They were not as bad as their record and neither were the dolphins.

Since you mention Cincy why not mention Pittsburgh and Dallas? Both might have made the playoffs if not for losses to the Jets.

I realize that Miami did start to turn their season around and they have a very promising young HC but do you really believe that the Jets "overachieved"?

[nyjunc]

1 hour ago, Bowles Movement said:

Belichick 

Carroll

Holmgren

All fired from their first job

Payton 3-13 his first year

Tom Landry 0-11-1 his first year, then 5 wins or less for 5 yrs

Parcells 3-11-1 his first year 

These are all Hall of Fame coaches

Shanahan

Debate that.

 

Belichick had 2 careers, pre Brady and with Brady.

Carroll had to go back to college to get another chance.

Holmgren wasn't fired

 

Payton was 10-6 and in the NFC Championship Game his first season.

 

I think Gase has done a good job as a HC but a poor job as an OC.  This year is big assuming we are relatively healthy.  If the O struggles again and the team struggles he could be gone. If the O struggles and the team is competitive they have to bring in a real OC.

[nyjunc]

3 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I realize that Miami did start to turn their season around and they have a very promising young HC but do you really believe that the Jets "overachieved"?

I absolutely believe the Jets overachieved.  Going into the season I thought they could win 7-9 games with good health.  Sam played a game with mono which cost them that game then missed 3, they were the most injured team the league has seen in a long time and yet still managed to win 7.  That was impressive to me.

[Bowles Movement]

16 minutes ago, nyjunc said:

Belichick had 2 careers, pre Brady and with Brady.

Carroll had to go back to college to get another chance.

Holmgren wasn't fired

 

Payton was 10-6 and in the NFC Championship Game his first season.

 

I think Gase has done a good job as a HC but a poor job as an OC.  This year is big assuming we are relatively healthy.  If the O struggles again and the team struggles he could be gone. If the O struggles and the team is competitive they have to bring in a real OC.

Sorry   Meant Andy Reid, not Holmgren.

Reids first season he went 3-13    

[Sammybighead]

I don’t require any further fodder

[TNJet]

20 hours ago, GreenFish said:

Freddie Kitchens was the favorite to win coach of the year last year. QB underperformed. Fired.

John Harbough was 22nd likeliest. QB Over performed....coach of the year.

Gase’s chances of winning goes as Sam goes. If you expect Darnold to light it up like I do, bet on Gase.

Freddie Kitchens hahahaha

[Warfish]

2 hours ago, Bowles Movement said:

Belichick 

Carroll

Holmgren

All fired from their first job

Payton 3-13 his first year

Tom Landry 0-11-1 his first year, then 5 wins or less for 5 yrs

Parcells 3-11-1 his first year 

These are all Hall of Fame coaches

Shanahan

Debate that.

 

I'm sorry, what is it that you think needs debated in "that"?  What argument are you making here?

 

[Losmeister]

22 hours ago, Warfish said:

And that has what to do with Gase exactly?

its not totally legit or illegit...    things can turn is all that it means...

BB was a sub .500 HC before brady

[Jetsfan80]

4 hours ago, Xtina said:

You don’t think his special status will carry through to his next team? 

No.  The NFL doesn't care about the Buccaneers.  

[Warfish]

42 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

its not totally legit or illegit...    things can turn is all that it means...

Sure.  But so what?

I could win the lottery, twice, after all, others have..

I could meet David Gilmour and be invited to play on the next Floyd album.  After all, others have.

I could run into Milana Vayntrub and we could fall madly in love.  After all, others have.

I could get a surprise tryout with the Nats and shock the world by earning a roster spot.  After all, others have.

Many, many things are theoretically possible, with precedent. 

Many things have been done by others in entirely different circumstances involving entirely different people.

THAT DOESN'T MEAN A GOD DAMN THING TO ADAM GASE.

But sure, Manning, thus Darnold.  Bellichek, thus Gase. 

Got it.  I'm out.