New York Jets' Adam Gase admits he hasn't helped Sam Darnold develop as NFL QB

[slimjasi]

 

16 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Gase didn't help Sam improve because Gase is terrible at his job.

What if I told you . . . Sam was also terrible at his job. 

[TuscanyTile2]

9 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Peyton was 3-2 against BB in the playoffs. 

BB had success in the first two playoff games against Manning (2003 AFC title game and 2004 Divisional playoffs), but Peyton Manning won the last three postseason meetings against BB (2006 AFC Championship game, 2013 AFC Championship game, 2015 AFC Championship game), putting up some huge numbers in two of the three wins. 

 

Yes Peyton did eventually start to beat BB but, earlier on, BB got to him badly.  That's when the term "Manning Face" started getting thrown around.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cDDavD0BMw

[slimjasi]

1 hour ago, Dcat said:

None of that is data as it pertains to why Darnold got worse after Gase showed up.  Every stat points to it. You ignore the correlation and talk about sh*tty QBs of yesteryear.  Comical argument.  Borders on SAR-like.  I expect better.  

Again, this is simply isn't true. 

Sam was marginally better in 2019 (under Gase) than he was in 2018 (under Bowles). 

I know, because I spent most of the offseason posting the 2018 vs. 2019 comparison, hoping that Sam would show an even bigger jump in year 3. It was my primary reason for holding off on judging Sam too harshly until we saw him in his third season.

The argument was basically : "Sam took a small jump between his 1st and 2nd seasons, so maybe he can take a larger jump between his 2nd and 3rd seasons. Also, we usually expect franchise QBs to be franchise QBs by their 3rd year in the league. Sam still has a chance to be good . .  ."

 

[TuscanyTile2]

2 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Again, this is simply isn't true. 

Sam was marginally better in 2019 (under Gase) than he was in 2018 (under Bowles). 

I know, because I spent most of the offseason posting the 2018 vs. 2019 comparison, hoping that Sam would show an even bigger jump in year 3. It was my primary reason for holding off on judging Sam too harshly until we saw him in his third season.

The argument was basically : "Sam took a small jump between his 1st and 2nd seasons, so maybe he can take a larger jump between his 2nd and 3rd seasons. Also, we usually expect franchise QBs to be franchise QBs by their 3rd year in the league. Sam still has a chance to be good . .  ."

 

Wasn't Sam one of the highest rated QBs over the final 5 games of his rookie season?

[slimjasi]

5 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Yes Peyton did eventually start to beat BB but, earlier on, BB got to him badly.  That's when the term "Manning Face" started getting thrown around.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cDDavD0BMw

A

 

This is apples to helicopters. 

 

Find me the game where Peyton threw for four picks and under 100 yards against BB on national TV

 

Then find me the games where Sam threw for 400 yards and multiple touchdowns against BB

 

thanks

 

 

[Waka Flocka Flacco]

Just now, TuscanyTile2 said:

Wasn't Sam one of the highest rated QBs over the final 5 games of his rookie season?

FLASHES OF GINGER

[TuscanyTile2]

2 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

This is apples to helicopters. 

Find me the game where Peyton threw for four picks and under 100 yards against BB on national TV

Then find me the games where Sam threw for 400 yards and multiple touchdowns against BB

thanks

Did Peyton do that to BB by the time he was 23?

[ZachEY]

20 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

How many games has Sam had against BB?  And look at the OL and weapons he's been given to face the grand-master (as compared to Peyton).  And Sam is like 23.  Peyton had a good # of years in the NFL before he finally turned it around on BB.

EDIT: And hey, I might be wrong about Sam.  He might end up being a bust.  But I still think he's going to turn it around if he goes to a competent organization with reasonably good talent.  And if he goes to a team like Pittsburgh or SF, I really like his chances to succeed.

I'm not chasing this train of logic any further.  Manning is a HOF QB who at times struggled with the Pats (like most  of the NFL).  Sam Darnold is a very bad QB who's career highlight is playing pretty well against Green Bay in a loss, who put forth the most comical Jets moment since the Buttfumble.  Why are we comparing them?

I mean, you can, of course, think whatever you want.  But after spending years here promoting Matt Sims as a future star, is it worth recalibrating your QB evaluations with something a little more tangible?

Genuinely curious, but not quite yet motivated enough, to see your Hackenberg takes...

[SAR I]

20 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

How many games has Sam had against BB?

Mark Sanchez, worstest worst fumblebutt in Jets history won 3 of his first 5 games against Bill Belichick.

Sam Darnold,  Franchise Quarterback Sent From The Gods, is a ghost-seeing oh-fer.

SAR I

[slimjasi]

2 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Wasn't Sam one of the highest rated QBs over the final 5 games of his rookie season?

a) It was four games (His 5th to last game in his rookie year was the Miami disaster in which he threw three picks and looked completely lost)

b) Ya'll love to bring up those 4 games. Truly the glory days of the Sam brigade. The problem is, you can't cherry pick 4 games (against several bad pass defenses) and compare them to the following season. You can either compare the entire 2018 season to the entire 2019 season or you can can compare this 4 game stretch to that 4 game stretch. You can't highlight his best 4 game stretch and ignore everything else. 

 

[slimjasi]

3 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Did Peyton do that to BB by the time he was 23?

Sam has started 33 games. 

By the time Peyton had started 33 games, he had put up a pro bowl season and went 13-3. 

Stop comparing Sam to a top 5 QB of all time. It's crazy. 

[ZachEY]

6 minutes ago, Waka Flocka Flacco said:

FLASHES OF GINGER

[Dcat]

13 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Again, this is simply isn't true. 

Sam was marginally better in 2019 (under Gase) than he was in 2018 (under Bowles). 

I know, because I spent most of the offseason posting the 2018 vs. 2019 comparison, hoping that Sam would show an even bigger jump in year 3. It was my primary reason for holding off on judging Sam too harshly until we saw him in his third season.

The argument was basically : "Sam took a small jump between his 1st and 2nd seasons, so maybe he can take a larger jump between his 2nd and 3rd seasons. Also, we usually expect franchise QBs to be franchise QBs by their 3rd year in the league. Sam still has a chance to be good . .  ."

 

The problem with all of this is that you are comparing the entirety of 2018 with that of 2018. I look only to the closing games of 2018 and compare to what we saw last year.  Sam is atrocious in a Gase offense. But so have been Gases other QBs.

[UntouchableCrew]

5 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

a) It was four games (His 5th to last game in his rookie year was the Miami disaster in which he threw three picks and looked completely lost)

b) Ya'll love to bring up those 4 games. Truly the glory days of the Sam brigade. The problem is, you can't cherry pick 4 games (against several bad pass defenses) and compare them to the following season. You can either compare the entire 2018 season to the entire 2019 season or you can can compare this 4 game stretch to that 4 game stretch. You can't highlight his best 4 game stretch and ignore everything else. 

 

The entire argument that Sam is good is based around two three game stretches in 2018 and 2019.

Bills, Texans and Packers in 2018 and Giants, Redskins, Raiders in 2019. Without those six games there's basically nothing to even argue in his favor on.

[Waka Flocka Flacco]

2 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

 

[ZachEY]

Just now, Waka Flocka Flacco said:

 

Had that one cued up, did ya?

[Waka Flocka Flacco]

2 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

Had that one cued up, did ya?

 

[slimjasi]

Just now, Dcat said:

The problem with all of this is that you are comparing the entirety of 2018 with that of 2018. I look only to the closing games of 2018 and compare to what we saw last year.  Sam is atrocious in a Gase offense. But so have been Gases other QBs.

But you can't do this!

Or rather, you can, but shouldn't. 

You are cherry picking Sam's best 4 game stretch against his next 16 games (four times the sample size). Being a good QB is about being consistently good. A much more statistically sound way to assess Sam's progress is to compare 16 games to 16 games, and in general, to look at as many games as possible (larger sample sizes are better than smaller sample sizes). 

You are essentially picking an outlier group of 4 games and comparing them against everything else. You are acting as if those 4 games are more indicative of who Sam is than the other 29 games of his career. It's just wrong. 

 

[slimjasi]

9 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

The entire argument that Sam is good is based around two three game stretches in 2018 and 2019.

Bills, Texans and Packers in 2018 and Giants, Redskins, Raiders in 2019. Without those six games there's basically nothing to even argue in his favor on.

Bingo.

The argument is basically - "But but but Sam played really well in seven games!!!!!( you forgot the Dallas game), so therefore he is good and Gase ruined him." But there are 26 other games (more than three times the number of good games) to look at that don't get mentioned - or get explained away by "everyone around Sam sucks"

It's just not a good argument. 

[More Cowbell]

1 hour ago, SAR I said:

Gase is in a tough spot where he doesn't want to throw any of his players or coaches under the bus.  He is struggling to work with Loggains and doing his best to protect him, often meaning Gase himself takes the hit.

And that's another thing that Gase doing by the way.  His players and coaches respect the fact that Gase takes the body blows so they don't have to.  

SAR I

 

[Jetsfan80]

28 minutes ago, Dcat said:

The problem with all of this is that you are comparing the entirety of 2018 with that of 2018. I look only to the closing games of 2018 and compare to what we saw last year.  Sam is atrocious in a Gase offense. But so have been Gases other QBs.

What he did isn't a problem.  What you're doing is a problem.  Extrapolating a 4-game stretch to a whole season is useless.  If a QB only shows up for 4 games a year, he's useless.  

[Dcat]

30 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

But you can't do this!

Or rather, you can, but shouldn't. 

You are cherry picking Sam's best 4 game stretch against his next 16 games (four times the sample size). Being a good QB is about being consistently good. A much more statistically sound way to assess Sam's progress is to compare 16 games to 16 games, and in general, to look at as many games as possible (larger sample sizes are better than smaller sample sizes). 

You are essentially picking an outlier group of 4 games and comparing them against everything else. You are acting as if those 4 games are more indicative of who Sam is than the other 29 games of his career. It's just wrong. 

 

I am not "cherry picking" anything. The facts are that in the final stretch of 18, Sam was good. Thats where he left off. The next time he appeared it was under Gase. Ever since that point, he became progressively  worse than he ever was.  You can't deny the progression of events and they tell the story of Gase and Sam.

[munchmemory]

51 minutes ago, Waka Flocka Flacco said:

FLASHES OF GINGER

Ginger Lynn? 

 

 

[TuscanyTile2]

55 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

I'm not chasing this train of logic any further.  Manning is a HOF QB who at times struggled with the Pats (like most  of the NFL).  Sam Darnold is a very bad QB who's career highlight is playing pretty well against Green Bay in a loss, who put forth the most comical Jets moment since the Buttfumble.  Why are we comparing them?

I mean, you can, of course, think whatever you want.  But after spending years here promoting Matt Sims as a future star, is it worth recalibrating your QB evaluations with something a little more tangible?

Genuinely curious, but not quite yet motivated enough, to see your Hackenberg takes...

I'm not comparing Sam to Peyton.  I'm pointing out that your argument that BB exposing and embarrassing Sam doesn't mean much considering BB did that to an all-time great like Peyton. 

I admit that my QB evaluations have plenty of misses in them (e.g. I really liked Jamarcus Russell, though I liked him early on, way before he was picked #1 overall), though some hits too (like Pat Mahomes).  

I bet that puts me in line with every other average Joe out there (and, heck, plenty of pro GMs), who make many bad evaluations.  I'm sure even you, TeddyEY, make bad predictions.  I can certainly think of one that I knew was obvious (that you were way off on) but it has nothing to do with sports.

Regardless, we can revisit this over the years and see how Sam turns out.  And we can also do the same for Gase and Belichick.

[slimjasi]

17 minutes ago, Dcat said:

I am not "cherry picking" anything. The facts are that in the final stretch of 18, Sam was good. Thats where he left off. The next time he appeared it was under Gase. Ever since that point, he became progressively  worse than he ever was.  You can't deny the progression of events and they tell the story of Gase and Sam.

Once again, the bolded simply isn't true. (Interestingly, one of the best games of Sam's career was the Dallas game, which was only his second start under Gase. Other notable career games for Sam were the Washington and Raider games, which were his 7th and 8th games under Gase)

I'm not sure what more there is to say. 

 

[SAR I]

51 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

 

Oooh, not a YouTuber with a whopping 900 views.  That's something I take about as seriously as your posts.

SAR I

[SAR I]

23 minutes ago, Dcat said:

I am not "cherry picking" anything. The facts are that in the final stretch of 18, Sam was good. Thats where he left off. The next time he appeared it was under Gase. Ever since that point, he became progressively  worse than he ever was.  You can't deny the progression of events and they tell the story of Gase and Sam.

....and yet Sam Darnold has gotten 5x more coaching face time in the last two years from Jordan Palmer, a personal mentor that has succeeded with the likes of Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, and a dozen more.

Sam sucks because Sam.

SAR I

[freestater]

All these years later and ole' Chaddy-boy is still the best Jets QB this century. 

[ZachEY]

40 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I'm not comparing Sam to Peyton.  I'm pointing out that your argument that BB exposing and embarrassing Sam doesn't mean much considering BB did that to an all-time great like Peyton. 

I admit that my QB evaluations have plenty of misses in them (e.g. I really liked Jamarcus Russell, though I liked him early on, way before he was picked #1 overall), though some hits too (like Pat Mahomes).  

I bet that puts me in line with every other average Joe out there (and, heck, plenty of pro GMs), who make many bad evaluations.  I'm sure even you, TeddyEY, make bad predictions.  I can certainly think of one that I knew was obvious (that you were way off on) but it has nothing to do with sports.

Regardless, we can revisit this over the years and see how Sam turns out.  And we can also do the same for Gase and Belichick.

I mean, you are making that comparison.  And, worse, you're comparing Sam's dreadful performances against NE against Peyton's losses.  There's no comparison whatsoever.

You're also confusing evaluations with predictions.  My evaluations are pretty much spot on.  Not because I'm some kind of football savant, but because I just look at what the data tells me.  I make very few predictions.  You won't see me with a significant Trevor Lawrence take because I don't watch college football outside of bowl games, which regretably, is probably why I was excited about Darnold.  And, I have no idea what you're talking about re: a non-sports prediction.

There may be something to revisit with Darnold, but I'm still not taking the stance you think I'm taking re: Gase.  I'm simply saying that the Jets are a very bad football team, and no amount of coaching is going to fix that.  

[ZachEY]

1 hour ago, Dcat said:

I am not "cherry picking" anything. The facts are that in the final stretch of 18, Sam was good. Thats where he left off. The next time he appeared it was under Gase. Ever since that point, he became progressively  worse than he ever was.  You can't deny the progression of events and they tell the story of Gase and Sam.

I guess his 167 yard, no TD, one fumble, 3 point performance in a loss in week 17 isn't a part of "left off" and leaving it out isn't "cherry picking?"

[Maxman]

5 hours ago, SAR I said:

No, quite the opposite.

I'm saying that the pandemic created a situation where Darnold spent 3+ months locked up with Jordan Palmer with no broads, no booze, nothing but football 24/7.  And that the pandemic created a situation where he spent the least amount of time possible with Gase and the Jets coaching staff due to the truncated camp.  And that the pandemic was good for Darnold's fragile body as he took no hits, no blows, no contact at all as there weren't any preseason games either.

Same playbook, limited contact with Jets coaches, tons of time with his own personal mentor, no battered body, Sam should have come out on fire in Buffalo and instead he showed exactly who he is and who is to blame for his lousy play-  himself.

SAR I

Do Josh Allen next.

[Maxman]

5 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

I mean, you are making that comparison.  And, worse, you're comparing Sam's dreadful performances against NE against Peyton's losses.  There's no comparison whatsoever.

You're also confusing evaluations with predictions.  My evaluations are pretty much spot on.  Not because I'm some kind of football savant, but because I just look at what the data tells me.  I make very few predictions.  You won't see me with a significant Trevor Lawrence take because I don't watch college football outside of bowl games, which regretably, is probably why I was excited about Darnold.  And, I have no idea what you're talking about re: a non-sports prediction.

There may be something to revisit with Darnold, but I'm still not taking the stance you think I'm taking re: Gase.  I'm simply saying that the Jets are a very bad football team, and no amount of coaching is going to fix that.  

Trevor Lawrence is a hall of famer. I have watched two or three YouTubes probably 5 - 7 minutes in total watch time. I am comfortable making this statement because of my exhaustive research.

[TuscanyTile2]

14 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

I mean, you are making that comparison.  And, worse, you're comparing Sam's dreadful performances against NE against Peyton's losses.  There's no comparison whatsoever.

You're also confusing evaluations with predictions.  My evaluations are pretty much spot on.  Not because I'm some kind of football savant, but because I just look at what the data tells me.  I make very few predictions.  You won't see me with a significant Trevor Lawrence take because I don't watch college football outside of bowl games, which regretably, is probably why I was excited about Darnold.  And, I have no idea what you're talking about re: a non-sports prediction.

There may be something to revisit with Darnold, but I'm still not taking the stance you think I'm taking re: Gase.  I'm simply saying that the Jets are a very bad football team, and no amount of coaching is going to fix that.  

If you read what I wrote, I'm not comparing Sam to Peyton.  Again, I'm saying that if BB could make Peyton (an all-time great who was already a young veteran in his prime, and he had a much better OL and weapons) look bad then your point about BB making a <= 23 year old Sam look bad doesn't amount to much.

Your evaluations are spot on because you look at the data?  I mean, anyone can say "(player name's) numbers aren't good this year".  

As for your last point about "no amount of coaching is going to fix [this year's Jet team]", that's also not saying anything.  Nobody thinks that the greatest CS in the world could win with this Jets' team.  But that doesn't mean this team hasn't underachieved.  We're not even competitive in half of our games.  This is the "any given Sunday" NFL we're talking about here and Vegas had our O/U on wins at 6.5 going into this season.

So is your point is that you never go out on a limb and all you do is make evaluations (never predictions), which, of course, are based on hindsight?

[ZachEY]

Just now, TuscanyTile2 said:

If you read what I wrote, I'm not comparing Sam to Peyton.  Again, I'm saying that if BB could make Peyton (who was already a young veteran in his prime and he had a much better OL and weapons) look bad then your point about BB making Sam look bad doesn't amount to much.

Your evaluations are spot on because you look at the data?  I mean, anyone can say "(player name's) numbers aren't good this year".  

As for your last point about "no amount of coaching is going to fix [this year's Jet team]", that's also not saying anything.  Nobody thinks that the greatest CS in the world could win with this Jets' team.  But that doesn't mean this team hasn't underachieved.  We're not even competitive in half of our games.  This is the "any given Sunday" NFL we're talking about here and Vegas had our O/U on wins at 6.5 going into this season.

 

I mean, I agree.  My points aren't that revolutionary.

Still, hard for some to wrap their heads around.

As for the evaluations, it's more than just, "numbers aren't good this year."  But, Sam Darnold is a bad quarterback isn't exactly some galaxy brain stuff.  All it requires is watching him, looking at numbers, and not making a million excuses.

Vegas lines are set to attract bets on both sides.  Not to predict outcomes.  It's also not some galaxy brain sh*t to say that the team unachieved this year, when they literally cannot have won less games.

[TuscanyTile2]

4 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

I mean, I agree.  My points aren't that revolutionary.

Still, hard for some to wrap their heads around.

As for the evaluations, it's more than just, "numbers aren't good this year."  But, Sam Darnold is a bad quarterback isn't exactly some galaxy brain stuff.  All it requires is watching him, looking at numbers, and not making a million excuses.

Vegas lines are set to attract bets on both sides.  Not to predict outcomes.  It's also not some galaxy brain sh*t to say that the team unachieved this year, when they literally cannot have won less games.

Except I've watched Sam and I see potential.  I think the game isn't slowing down for him because of OL, weapons and coaching.

As for the Vegas line, agreed it's there to attract bets on both sides but someone has to set the initial line, don't they?  They tend to do an amazing job with that.  If they didn't then they wouldn't be in business.  But my point is less about the W's and L's and far more about the blowouts.  We're not even competitive in about half of our games.