New York Jets rookie Zach Wilson battles the 'Mahomes Effect'

[Claymation]

43 minutes ago, Snell41 said:

 

No, I suggest he learns to read a D, call for the right protection, and get the ball out quickly. You know, basics of being a QB.


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And when someone is in his face, take the sack? 

Most of his off schedule plays are because the protection breaks down.

Zach has been pressure 29.4% of time.

[Snell41]

And when someone is in his face, take the sack? 
Most of his off schedule plays are because the protection breaks down.
Zach has been pressure 29.4% of time.

And outside of week 1 his protection has been more than sufficient. Let’s not pretend a QB should never face pressure. The QB needs to understand to get the ball out quickly. Zach is not Mahomes or Russell Wilson. He has no business playing street ball.


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[Action Zachtion]

7 hours ago, thebuzzardman said:

Mahomes effect makes it sound like one day Zach will be great. Kind of misleading. 

You and @Snell41 are going to catch some sh1t if Zach hits lol.  WAYYYY too early to be as negative as you guys are, so if things go that way, be prepared to own it.  

i think he's doing fine but I get the posters who are more concerned but most are open to seeing the potential even if they suspect it won't work. 

in general it's lame to throw old posts back at someone because the info we work with is imperfect - but your certainty this early is th exception.  

[Beerfish]

Mahommes effect?  Mahommes sat out his 1st year behind a vet just like wilson should have sat our year one.

Mahommes went to a mostly built team loaded with weapons.

Wilson and mahomees are nothing alike.

[Action Zachtion]

35 minutes ago, Snell41 said:

 

And outside of week 1 his protection has been more than sufficient. Let’s not pretend a QB should never face pressure. The QB needs to understand to get the ball out quickly. Zach is not Mahomes or Russell Wilson. He has no business playing street ball.


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Lol.  You are making up stuff to fit your BS narritive.   The protection wasn't fine after week 1. 

[Snell41]

You and [mention=28812]Snell41[/mention] are going to catch some sh1t if Zach hits lol.  WAYYYY too early to be as negative as you guys are, so if things go that way, be prepared to own it.  
i think he's doing fine but I get the posters who are more concerned but most are open to seeing the potential even if they suspect it won't work. 
in general it's lame to throw old posts back at someone because the info we work with is imperfect - but your certainty this early is th exception.  

I’d love nothing more than to be proven wrong. I thought Zach was a terrible prospect, and I made that clear before he was even being considered a prospect at 2 overall. There’s absolutely nothing special about him. He has a great arm, but it’s not some generational type strength. It’s not the strongest in the league today by far. He’s not very big; he’s not much of a running threat, and he’s awful at reading plays at an NFL level. What am I supposed to be excited about? People comparing him to Josh Allen as a prospect are laughable. Not even close in arm strength, not even close in running ability, not even close in size. At least Allen had the ability to use his legs while he tried to catch up to the speed of the game. You don’t draft one year wonders from schools like BYU unless the prospect is generational in size and speed.

I would kill to eat crow on this, hell I’m making it so publicly obvious that I dislike Wilson as the QB in hopes you guys can shove it in my face in 3 years. Sadly I don’t think that’s going to happen.


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[Barton]

He's definitely trying to do those stupid fade-away throws for no reason while he has a clean pocket, a la Aaron Rodgers.

Ask yourself, Zach. Who is more accurate, Brady or Rodgers? Who has more rings? Be more like Brady. Stand tall and firm in the pocket and deliver the ball. 

[rangerous]

wilson has a chance to be really good but he needs to learn how to win the game as a team.  this means taking the easy throws when they are presented and making the harder throws only when the opportunity presents itself.  by this i mean use the easy throws to get the defense leaning one way and then uncorking the long ones.  as for the mahomes comparison,  mahomes sat for a season and he is on a team that is established.  his transition to winning has been much easier than it has for wilson.  but even there, he looked plenty mortal in the superbowl and this season the whole team isn't doing so well.

[thebuzzardman]

56 minutes ago, Action Zachtion said:

You and @Snell41 are going to catch some sh1t if Zach hits lol.  WAYYYY too early to be as negative as you guys are, so if things go that way, be prepared to own it.  

i think he's doing fine but I get the posters who are more concerned but most are open to seeing the potential even if they suspect it won't work. 

in general it's lame to throw old posts back at someone because the info we work with is imperfect - but your certainty this early is th exception.  

If any other team than the Jets drafted him, I'd be far less confident. The Jets will f*ck this up. It's what they do. 

[JustInFudge]

6 hours ago, Big_Slick said:

The article states " The league has seen enough of Wilson to form two takeaways:

    The dude has special talent.

    He's still learning how -- and when -- to use it. 

I have not seen anything special from Zach during the first 5 games. He's been absolutely horrible at every aspect of playing QB at the NFL level except for a couple of desperation hero throws that just about every NFL QB can make.

The #2 OA pick should have mastered basic QB fundamentals. Yeah, at the NFL level rookie QB's have to learn the speed of the NFL, how to read defenses and that every player is fast and throws made against college teams don't turn out very well in the NFL.

JD made the pick and set the course of the Jets for the next three or four years and I can only hope that Zach somehow miraculously doesn't bust.

My biggest frustration with the situation is, just like this article states below, all the garbage you see in his game, has carried over from college.   He was a mess and need to be broken down and reworked but he seemingly isnt being coached out of it.  Every time you hear LaFleur and Wilson they thinks his fundamentals and mechanics are fine and they are quite clearly plaguing his play.  I was ultimately fine with taking Wilson if you're building him based on his traits and you have a clear cut plan for how to make him successful.  And instead, they're acting like the drafted a finished product and in fact, have no discernible plan.  

I'll get flamed for this because I'm a mean person and Chris Simms but this is hard truth and I'm not even mad at Wilson for it, this is the Jets fault, yet again.

 

 

 

8 hours ago, Claymation said:

"Zach is what I thought he'd be," one AFC scout said. "The game is moving fast for him, which is normal. It's hard to make plays in both phases without (tackle Mekhi) Becton. He's inaccurate, but still a gunslinger."

Outside the phone booth, meaning the confines of a congested pocket, Wilson can be Superman. He turns designed rollouts and improvised scrambles into highlight-film plays. But inside the phone booth, he's Clark Kent -- a little klutzy and not nearly as dynamic as his alter ego. The stats back it up:

Inside the pocket: He's 88-for-141 (62.4%) for 956 yards, two touchdowns, seven interceptions and a league-low 19.8 QBR, by far the worst among qualified passers, per ESPN Stats & Information data.

Outside the pocket: He's 10-for-30 (33.3%) for 161 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions and a 38.0 QBR (20th out of 32) -- not great, but proportionately better than his efficiency in the pocket.

Former NFL defensive back and current ESPN analyst Matt Bowen is encouraged because there are "so many signs on tape of his natural traits as a thrower," confirming the pre-draft hype, but he believes Wilson still is outgrowing some college habits.

"From a coaching perspective, you're saying, 'OK, this young quarterback is extremely talented. Now we have to refine some of the inexperience you're naturally going to expect and some of the negatives we see on tape that he carried over from college,'" Bowen said. "In some instances, he reverts back to some things he did at the college level at BYU.

"There's a lot of unnecessary movement. His feet are constantly moving. Look, you want your quarterback to be a mover within the pocket, but I think there are times when he puts himself on an unstable throwing platform. I think he did that in college because he could. Simply that: Because he could. He was more talented than the majority of the competition he faced. That gets you in trouble at times on this level."

Bowen said Wilson must find a balance, meaning he must learn to escape the pocket only when absolutely necessary. Otherwise, he will disrupt the timing of the pass routes and eliminate his backside reads.

Instead of escaping, he should try to slide and reset within the pocket, Bowen said. Wilson made a concerted effort to do that in training camp, executing the plays the way they were drawn up. He figured that was the best way to learn the offense, knowing he could always fall back on his off-platform instincts if all else fails.

 

[maury77]

8 hours ago, jgb said:

I made a hole-in-one once. I have shown I have what it takes to be a PGA tour champion. Now I just need to work on my consistency.

People will laugh, but it really is a spot on analogy.

[Action Zachtion]

49 minutes ago, maury77 said:

People will laugh, but it really is a spot on analogy.

Yeah but 85 hole in ones by the end of the year means something.  Some posters won't give any credit no matter what.   

He shows real stuff every game and he's also making lots of mistakes. Rookie stuff with good potential.  

[Matt39]

when style points count then this will mean something

[Claymation]

And outside of week 1 his protection has been more than sufficient. Let’s not pretend a QB should never face pressure. The QB needs to understand to get the ball out quickly. Zach is not Mahomes or Russell Wilson. He has no business playing street ball.


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Zach has been sacked 18 times this year. 12 times after the 1st game.

Pressured 29.4%.

If that’s sufficient, then you and I have a different definition of what is expected of an offensive line.

[Lupz27]

11 hours ago, Claymation said:

FLORHAM PARK, N.J. -- In the worst game of his life, New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson made one of the most improbable completions of the NFL season.

In the fourth quarter of the Week 2 blowout loss to the New England Patriots, who intercepted four of his first 10 pass attempts, Wilson composed himself and fired a 27-yarder to Braxton Berrios on a deep corner route against a Cover-2 defense -- over the cornerback and underneath the safety. Considering all the factors -- air distance, time to throw and amount of separation from receiver to closest defender (less than one yard) -- the completion probability was 14%, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.

Of the 4,366 complete passes through six weeks, only five had a lower completion probability than Wilson-to-Berrios. That throw, a straight dropback with no schoolyard improv, showed Wilson can be an effective pocket passer. What he has yet to demonstrate is the ability to do it on a consistent basis.

Industry insiders wonder if it's a case of the "Mahomes Effect" -- a young quarterback trying to make spectacular, off-platform throws that wind up as viral videos on social media. Wilson played that way at BYU, drawing comparisons to Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, but he can't live in that world as a professional. Heck, even the great Mahomes is having problems this season with turnovers (eight picks).

Five games is a small sample size for any rookie, let alone a quarterback, but the league has seen enough of Wilson to form two takeaways:

1. The dude has special talent.

2. He's still learning how -- and when -- to use it.

The second overall pick is struggling. His interception total (nine) leads the league, his completion percentage (57.3) is 31st out of 32 qualified passers and his Total QBR (22.6) ranks 32nd, trailing four other rookie qualifiers. He has 32 more pass attempts than unheralded rookie Davis Mills, the Houston Texans' third-round pick, but one fewer touchdown pass (four).

"Zach is what I thought he'd be," one AFC scout said. "The game is moving fast for him, which is normal. It's hard to make plays in both phases without (tackle Mekhi) Becton. He's inaccurate, but still a gunslinger."

Outside the phone booth, meaning the confines of a congested pocket, Wilson can be Superman. He turns designed rollouts and improvised scrambles into highlight-film plays. But inside the phone booth, he's Clark Kent -- a little klutzy and not nearly as dynamic as his alter ego. The stats back it up:

Inside the pocket: He's 88-for-141 (62.4%) for 956 yards, two touchdowns, seven interceptions and a league-low 19.8 QBR, by far the worst among qualified passers, per ESPN Stats & Information data.

Outside the pocket: He's 10-for-30 (33.3%) for 161 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions and a 38.0 QBR (20th out of 32) -- not great, but proportionately better than his efficiency in the pocket.

Former NFL defensive back and current ESPN analyst Matt Bowen is encouraged because there are "so many signs on tape of his natural traits as a thrower," confirming the pre-draft hype, but he believes Wilson still is outgrowing some college habits.

"From a coaching perspective, you're saying, 'OK, this young quarterback is extremely talented. Now we have to refine some of the inexperience you're naturally going to expect and some of the negatives we see on tape that he carried over from college,'" Bowen said. "In some instances, he reverts back to some things he did at the college level at BYU.

"There's a lot of unnecessary movement. His feet are constantly moving. Look, you want your quarterback to be a mover within the pocket, but I think there are times when he puts himself on an unstable throwing platform. I think he did that in college because he could. Simply that: Because he could. He was more talented than the majority of the competition he faced. That gets you in trouble at times on this level."

Bowen said Wilson must find a balance, meaning he must learn to escape the pocket only when absolutely necessary. Otherwise, he will disrupt the timing of the pass routes and eliminate his backside reads.

Instead of escaping, he should try to slide and reset within the pocket, Bowen said. Wilson made a concerted effort to do that in training camp, executing the plays the way they were drawn up. He figured that was the best way to learn the offense, knowing he could always fall back on his off-platform instincts if all else fails.

Bowen pointed to Green Bay Packers star Aaron Rodgers, who, in the same offensive system, needed a year to get comfortable. In 2019, his first season under coach Matt LaFleur, Rodgers too often played "outside the structure" of the scheme, according to Bowen. He still played well -- come on, he's Aaron Rodgers, right? -- but followed with an MVP performance in 2020.

Keep that in mind when evaluating Wilson, who was 6 years old when Rodgers broke into the league.

"Zach has a lot of talent, a lot of potential," said a defensive player who faced the Jets this season. "He's athletic as hell and you can tell the dude's arm strength is top tier. I mean, he can make damn near every throw on the field and make it look effortless. I definitely think he could be somewhat like [Buffalo Bills quarterback] Josh Allen in the future."

Reminded that Wilson played poorly in their game, the defensive player said, "Other things have to work in his favor. The O-line has to hold up for him and give him a little time to feel confident back there. The wide receivers have to get open and also catch the ball when they get open. The scheme has to fit the player. It's more than just him and his play. I'm not saying the Jets don't have all those things. I would just say it's not him as an individual that's not working right now."

It's funny he mentioned Allen. Statistically, Wilson's first five starts are eerily similar to Allen's first five in 2018, as Jets coach Robert Saleh pointed out.

Wilson, who spent time over the bye week working with his personal coach, former NFL quarterback John Beck, said he's "overthinking" some of his throws, especially the so-called gimmes. His mind has to be spinning. First came the edict from his coaches to be "boring." Now he's in the "let 'er rip" mode, confident he can raise his efficiency over the final 12 games.

It won't take long to find out if he's right. Up next is a rematch against the Patriots on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS) at Gillette Stadium, where Wilson will have an opportunity to show he's not the same overwhelmed rookie he was in Week 2.

"I know it can be frustrating sometimes when we’re looking at some of these things and it’s like, ‘God, he should be making these throws,'" Saleh said. "It’s going to start clicking."

 

 

 

Bowen ticked off a handful of plays in which Wilson demonstrated next-level skill and awareness. The most recent example came in the Week 5 loss to the Atlanta Falcons, a 27-yard completion to Denzel Mims on an in-breaking route in the middle of zone coverage. It was a good read, good anticipation and "a big-time throw," Bowen said.

It came from the pocket, not on one of his schoolyard scrambles. Few quarterbacks have the ability to throw a 50-yard dime while running at full speed, as Wilson has done on a couple of occasions. It's a gift.

And, sometimes, a curse.

https://www.espn.com/blog/new-york-jets/post/_/id/87897/new-york-jets-rookie-zach-wilson-battles-the-mahomes-effect

 

I don’t know why everyone just doesn’t get that their is only one Pat Mahomes.

[Claymation]

I don’t know why everyone just doesn’t get that their is only one Pat Mahomes.

There is only one Pat Mahomes and he’s Patrick’s dad.

[Gastineau Lives]

2 hours ago, maury77 said:

People will laugh, but it really is a spot on analogy.

It's really not. Not even close.

[Gastineau Lives]

11 hours ago, thebuzzardman said:

Mahomes effect makes it sound like one day Zach will be great. Kind of misleading. 

You should stop watching, he's going to be here a while.

[DJF71]

He looks nothing like Mahomes. 

[Gastineau Lives]

3 hours ago, Snell41 said:

 

I’d love nothing more than to be proven wrong.


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I stopped reading here. If you really wanted to be proven wrong you would be able to shut up about how bad you think he is and will always be. You can't help yourself so the rest is all disingenuous. 

[Facts]

12 hours ago, jgb said:

I made a hole-in-one once. I have shown I have what it takes to be a PGA tour champion. Now I just need to work on my consistency.

Yep ^^

I made TWO hole-in-one’s on the putt-putt course!

[thebuzzardman]

35 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

You should stop watching, he's going to be here a while.

Yeah, probably about as long as Darnold. Who sucked. 

[Lupz27]

1 hour ago, Claymation said:

There is only one Pat Mahomes and he’s Patrick’s dad.

Well if we’re talking like that then there is actually III of them.

[Gastineau Lives]

5 hours ago, thebuzzardman said:

Yeah, probably about as long as Darnold. Who sucked. 

Oh...oh wow.

[jgb]

8 hours ago, Facts said:

Yep ^^

I made TWO hole-in-one’s on the putt-putt course!

OK, calm down Kim Jung Il.

[slimjasi]

14 hours ago, Action Zachtion said:

You and @Snell41 are going to catch some sh1t if Zach hits lol.  WAYYYY too early to be as negative as you guys are, so if things go that way, be prepared to own it.  

i think he's doing fine but I get the posters who are more concerned but most are open to seeing the potential even if they suspect it won't work. 

in general it's lame to throw old posts back at someone because the info we work with is imperfect - but your certainty this early is th exception.  

I agree that it's too early to sh*t on Zach as much as this board does, but at the same time, people just got done watching Darnold bust here.

You can't blame Jets fans for just assuming their new shiny QB is just another bust. We are conditioned for failure and disappointment. 

[FidelioJet]

8 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

I agree that it's too early to sh*t on Zach as much as this board does, but at the same time, people just got done watching Darnold bust here.

You can't blame Jets fans for just assuming their new shiny QB is just another bust. We are conditioned for failure and disappointment. 

I very much agree with this sentiment.  I get it.  It's very frustrating to all of us and I have a short fuse when it comes to this team too...Expressing concern is very reasonable, but also accepting the positive.  He has shown some  good amongst a lot of bad.

I think what's causing the problem on this site is the handful of people that disliked him the moment he was mentioned as a potential prospect for the Jets, they are married to his failure and take every opportunity (right or wrong) to attack him - even to the point of making up stuff (as if they needed it) and are already taking victory laps on him being a bust.

[slimjasi]

3 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

I very much agree with this sentiment.  I get it.  It's very frustrating to all of us and I have a short fuse when it comes to this team too...Expressing concern is very reasonable, but also accepting the positive.  He has shown some  good amongst a lot of bad.

I think what's causing the problem on this site is the handful of people that disliked him the moment he was mentioned as a potential prospect for the Jets, they are married to his failure and take every opportunity (right or wrong) to attack him - even to the point of making up stuff (as if they needed it) and are already taking victory laps on him being a bust.

Absolutely. I agree. And there is a fair amount of trolling, which comes with the territory. 

I think if you can't get excited about Zach's physical potential, you shouldn't be watching the Jets and 5 games into a rookie season does not a career make. 

[FidelioJet]

20 hours ago, jgb said:

Public Service Announcement: when you are defending a QB on the basis of “flashes,” you are not doing him any favors. Everyone paid $660,000 or more a year (NFL minimum salary) to throw a ball can flash the talent to make some amazing throws, aside from the occasional Hackenberg or Luke Falk, who are quickly out of the league. It’s consistency that separates these top 0.0001% of human catapults into tiers. 

If you watch ZW and think the talent he hasn't "flashed - special" and hasn't shown anything that a $660,000 minimum salary rookie QB can do...

Then I truly understand where our disconnect is.  

I think ZW has far more talent than an average prospect and has top QB potential.  And you think he's shown nothing more than minimum contract rookie - I get if that's your view.  If you see that, than you are 100% correct in your determination that he's likely to bust.

I don't think we could be further apart.  But at least know I do better understand your viewpoint and can now understand why you're so negative.

[FidelioJet]

23 hours ago, jgb said:

I made a hole-in-one once. I have shown I have what it takes to be a PGA tour champion. Now I just need to work on my consistency.

Terrible analogy.

The appropriate one would be is you consistently drive the ball 400 yards (which, of course, most humans can't)  but you're playing on greens that are much faster than what you're used to - so your short game is a bit off.

[jgb]

40 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

If you watch ZW and think the talent he hasn't "flashed - special" and hasn't shown anything that a $660,000 minimum salary rookie QB can do...

Then I truly understand where our disconnect is.  

I think ZW has far more talent than an average prospect and has top QB potential.  And you think he's shown nothing more than minimum contract rookie - I get if that's your view.  If you see that, than you are 100% correct in your determination that he's likely to bust.

I don't think we could be further apart.  But at least know I do better understand your viewpoint and can now understand why you're so negative.

I have not seen "flash special." I have seen "flash can make NFL throws." But he's 5 starts in. Sample size still leads to massive margin of error for any conclusions.

[jgb]

35 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Terrible analogy.

The appropriate one would be is you consistently drive the ball 400 yards (which, of course, most humans can't)  but you're playing on greens that are much faster than what you're used to - so your short game is a bit off.

In Zach's case it would be consistently sucking and once in a while hitting a great shot. But again, he's 5 games in. However if we are still talking about "flashes" week 17, a reasonable conclusion can start to take shape.

[The Crusher]

15 hours ago, Beerfish said:

Mahommes effect?  Mahommes sat out his 1st year behind a vet just like wilson should have sat our year one.

Mahommes went to a mostly built team loaded with weapons.

Wilson and mahomees are nothing alike.

Andy Reid is little bit better at this than Saleh and LaFleur right now. 

[jgb]

On 10/20/2021 at 10:03 PM, FidelioJet said:

I don't think anyone is comparing his play to those players..

Just that his natural skill-set is unique and not easy to find...much like the players mentioned above.  For them, they've reached that potential.  That if, and it's a big if, Zach figures it out he can be truly special.  You simply can't say that about most QBs in the NFL.

Zach is very far from there and no one has said otherwise. 

 

Is it though? What elite traits does he have? The most often thing I've heard is arm strength. Lots of guys have a strong arm. Hardly difficult to find. Zach is in the fat middle of the bell curve for NFL QBs and will rise or fall based on what's upstairs/difficult to measure.

[FidelioJet]

55 minutes ago, jgb said:

 

Is it though? What elite trades does he have? The most often thing I've heard is arm strength. Lots of guys have a strong arm. Hardly difficult to find. Zach is in the fat middle of the bell curve for NFL QBs and will rise or fall based on what's upstairs/difficult to measure.

It is.  Well, IMO it is.

And, as mentioned, I think it's where you and I are so far apart that it really isn't even worth debating.  I mean that sincerely and not meant to be argumentative at all - just the reality of the situation.

I can list all of the things that make him an elite talent, but they've been discussed ad nauseam around here and with experts for the past 6 months.

If you don't see or agree with them, that's fine...as mentioned, we're just too far apart.

I suspect before the year is out we'll start to see more of who he his - one way or the other - we'll likely get closer