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“… most talented crop of Senior Bowl players I’ve ever seen“ - Todd McShay


jetstream23
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Good to hear! One of my concerns has been the fact that this draft doesnt seem as strong as others. But to be fair, my knowledge of the players this year is basically first round…and prob first 20 picks or so (for now 😁).

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You would imagine that this would be the case as you have a whole crop of seniors that were granted an extra year of eligibility, and for borderline draft prospects, that extra year provides them an edge over your typical senior prospect.

You should have a greater number of rookies drafted in rounds 3-7 that should be able to contribute more quickly than your typical rookie.

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1 hour ago, k-met57 said:

Good to hear! One of my concerns has been the fact that this draft doesnt seem as strong as others. But to be fair, my knowledge of the players this year is basically first round…and prob first 20 picks or so (for now 😁).

We know nothing.  Everyone is calling this as a weak draft, nobody knows chit.

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29 minutes ago, BCJet said:

I know the consensus is that this draft stinks but I really think it has shaped up perfectly for the Jets.

1. There are no top QBs and we dont need one

2.  There is no elite LT and we dont need that either

3.  Edge would be next and while most people think there are 2 elite prospects at edge and we pick 4 im not sure that is the case.  Thibs is an elite talent and deserves to be picked 1 or 2.  I like Hutchinson but this is a guy who was a 2nd round pick and who vaulted into the top 3 after one game.  I also believe he liked benefited greatly from Ojabo next to him, while a guy like Karlafitis had "poor stats" because he had no one next to him and was constantly double teamed.  Thibs would be great but if we found a 10 year DE who can play the run and get 7-8 sacks I think that would really help the defense.

4. After edge, this draft gets thin at "premium positions" but has a ton of depth through the second round - and we happen to have 3 of the next 38 picks.  In that group are 3 good off ball LBs (Lloyd, Dean and Harris).  Multiple good TEs, many of whom we will coach at the senior bowl.  Veteran OL who didnt declare last year (Penning, Zion Johnson).  All positions which we need.

Lastly, we actually get to coach the senior bowl and get that huge advantage with all of these guys - especially when it comes to the middle rounds for RBs like Haskins and Jerome Ford and other DBs.

I really hope JD is who this organization thought he was because this is a huge opportunity for the team.

1 and 2 are terrible for the Jets when you have two top ten picks.

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1 minute ago, undertow said:

1 and 2 are terrible for the Jets when you have two top ten picks.

I wouldn't worry too much about the QB thing. How often in recent memory did the top 10 not  have at least 1 or 2 QBs? Teams convince themselves on guys like Bortles/Trubisky/Daniel Jones etc every year. 

Whoever are the top 2 rated QBs in the draft will float to the top 10 even if they aren't top 10 talent. 

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3 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

I wouldn't worry too much about the QB thing. How often in recent memory did the top 10 not  have at least 1 or 2 QBs? Teams convince themselves on guys like Bortles/Trubisky/Daniel Jones etc every year. 

Whoever are the top 2 rated QBs in the draft will float to the top 10 even if they aren't top 10 talent. 

Yeah I agree I think there's players that will shoot up the board possibly Pickett or Corral....It's just a bummer that there's no Chase or Pitts we can snag at 4.

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1 hour ago, BCJet said:

I know the consensus is that this draft stinks but I really think it has shaped up perfectly for the Jets.

1. There are no top QBs and we dont need one

2.  There is no elite LT and we dont need that either

3.  Edge would be next and while most people think there are 2 elite prospects at edge and we pick 4 im not sure that is the case.  Thibs is an elite talent and deserves to be picked 1 or 2.  I like Hutchinson but this is a guy who was a 2nd round pick and who vaulted into the top 3 after one game.  I also believe he liked benefited greatly from Ojabo next to him, while a guy like Karlafitis had "poor stats" because he had no one next to him and was constantly double teamed.  Thibs would be great but if we found a 10 year DE who can play the run and get 7-8 sacks I think that would really help the defense.

4. After edge, this draft gets thin at "premium positions" but has a ton of depth through the second round - and we happen to have 3 of the next 38 picks.  In that group are 3 good off ball LBs (Lloyd, Dean and Harris).  Multiple good TEs, many of whom we will coach at the senior bowl.  Veteran OL who didnt declare last year (Penning, Zion Johnson).  All positions which we need.

Lastly, we actually get to coach the senior bowl and get that huge advantage with all of these guys - especially when it comes to the middle rounds for RBs like Haskins and Jerome Ford and other DBs.

I really hope JD is who this organization thought he was because this is a huge opportunity for the team.

Love your post and agree with the main points.  Only counters I have are:

1. Wish there was riper opportunity to trade down and accumulate an additional first.  Here is hoping the Eagles fall in love with someone around our slots

2. Think about what you wrote on edge .. “DE who can play the run and get 7-8 sacks”.
His name is JFM who had our highest run grade (near the top quartile at his position) and had 6 sacks.  Tough to rush the passer when the team can’t stop the run or cover RBs or TEs.  But he is exactly what you described and I would expect his numbers to improve as the defense improves.

Do you feel he is not; or would you prefer to move him inside and get a more pure 4-3 DE; or would you keep him where he is and draft competition at the other end as a contingency to C Lawson?

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31 minutes ago, undertow said:

1 and 2 are terrible for the Jets when you have two top ten picks.

If we were picking 1 or 2 then you would 100% be right, but we arent we are picking 4. Which would not be a trade up spot anyway.

If Bryce Young was in this draft he would go 1 through a trade up with detroit or Houston to Jacksonville's spot and they would still take Thibs or an OT in front of us.

If Bryce Young and some other top QB was in the draft the same thing above would happen and the texans would take the second QB and Thibs or the top OT would still be gone.

So if you are saying that if there were 2 tops QBs, Thibs AND a top LT then maybe Jacks takes the OT and we wind up with Thibs at 4, then ok, theres a point there.

But at 10 - we are still in a spot like the Giants last year to move back for a team that doesnt want to pay 3 firsts for a QB but is willing to pay 1 2023 pick.

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2 hours ago, Scott Dierking said:

You would imagine that this would be the case as you have a whole crop of seniors that were granted an extra year of eligibility, and for borderline draft prospects, that extra year provides them an edge over your typical senior prospect.

You should have a greater number of rookies drafted in rounds 3-7 that should be able to contribute more quickly than your typical rookie.

This cannot be understated enough.  Getting guys that have had an extra year in college should be more physically mature and pro ready than in years past.

We need the rooks to come in, hit the ground running and contribute immediatlely.

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8 minutes ago, k-met57 said:

i am holding out hope a guy like Kenny Pickett can get a team to trade up to 3.

I think we'll learn more as the next 3 months roll by.

Do any of the QB prospects elevate their stock in their Pro Days (i.e. Zach making that impossible across the body throw) or the Combine?

#5) Who do the Giants bring in at GM and how does that factor into the Daniel Jones as QB decision?

#6) Do the Panthers come around to the idea that Darnold isn't the future and neither is Cam?

#8) Does ATL accept that the Matt Ryan window is closed and they might want to think about drafting the next QB?

#9) same but insert DEN

#11) same but insert WFT

#12) Is MIN planning to extend Cousins or is it time for them to look to drafting a possible replacement?

#15) Will PHI want to move up to get ahead of the pack and draft a guy or are they riding the Hurts train again?

There is a real cluster of teams in the 5-15 range that *could* think about a QB.  But there will also be some movement that will fill some of those holes.  Watson could move and HOU might just run with Davis.  Russ may move but SEA doesn't have a 1st round pick anyway.  So that could fill two of those holes, but between NYG, CAR, ATL, DEN, MIN, WFT and PHI, I would not be surprised to see 1-2 QBs go.

The only chance for a trade up ahead of the Giants at #5 is if one of them really clicks.  Kiper thinks Willis has the highest upside whereas Pickett is perhaps the safest choice.  But are either of them worth the capital to move up to #3 or #4?  Maybe for CAR since it's a shorter hop.  We might get some interest at #10 from MIN or PHI if they want to get ahead of WFT.  But I'm not really optimistic about either.

 

 

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3 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Love your post and agree with the main points.  Only counters I have are:

1. Wish there was riper opportunity to trade down and accumulate an additional first.  Here is hoping the Eagles fall in love with someone around our slots

2. Think about what you wrote on edge .. “DE who can play the run and get 7-8 sacks”.
His name is JFM who had our highest run grade (near the top quartile at his position) and had 6 sacks.  Tough to rush the passer when the team can’t stop the run or cover RBs or TEs.  But he is exactly what you described and I would expect his numbers to improve as the defense improves.

Do you feel he is not; or would you prefer to move him inside and get a more pure 4-3 DE; or would you keep him where he is and draft competition at the other end as a contingency to C Lawson?

I think the answer is all of the above.

I see JFM as a good starting DE who's best quality is near elite rushing from the DT spot, thats what he did best in 2020.  This year, once we lost Lawson and then Huff, we didnt have literally anyone to rush from the edge which really negated JFM's best ability.

I think if you take a guy like Karlifitis you can rotate him, JFM and Lawson on first and second down which not only fits with the weird substitution patterns that Saleh seems wedded to but hopefully allows us to bring Lawson along slowly and hopefully prevent further injury,

Then in the event the defense can actually put the offense into passing situations, you can play a combination of QW and JFM and even Karlifitis as rush DTs along with Lawson and Huff or keep Karlifitis as a DE next to one of those guys.

Saleh has routinely referenced winning 1-1 matchups with his DL and the above 5 guys all bring very good pass rushing ability IF Karlifitis shows enough.

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4 hours ago, BCJet said:

I know the consensus is that this draft stinks but I really think it has shaped up perfectly for the Jets.

1. There are no top QBs and we dont need one

2.  There is no elite LT and we dont need that either

3.  Edge would be next and while most people think there are 2 elite prospects at edge and we pick 4 im not sure that is the case.  Thibs is an elite talent and deserves to be picked 1 or 2.  I like Hutchinson but this is a guy who was a 2nd round pick and who vaulted into the top 3 after one game.  I also believe he liked benefited greatly from Ojabo next to him, while a guy like Karlafitis had "poor stats" because he had no one next to him and was constantly double teamed.  Thibs would be great but if we found a 10 year DE who can play the run and get 7-8 sacks I think that would really help the defense.

4. After edge, this draft gets thin at "premium positions" but has a ton of depth through the second round - and we happen to have 3 of the next 38 picks.  In that group are 3 good off ball LBs (Lloyd, Dean and Harris).  Multiple good TEs, many of whom we will coach at the senior bowl.  Veteran OL who didnt declare last year (Penning, Zion Johnson).  All positions which we need.

Lastly, we actually get to coach the senior bowl and get that huge advantage with all of these guys - especially when it comes to the middle rounds for RBs like Haskins and Jerome Ford and other DBs.

I really hope JD is who this organization thought he was because this is a huge opportunity for the team.

Evan Neal is elite and Ikwonu isn't far behind.

Hutchinson did not vault based on one game.  He had a phenomenal season.

Ojabo benefited from playing opposite Hutchinson, not the other way around.

 

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4 hours ago, BCJet said:

I know the consensus is that this draft stinks but I really think it has shaped up perfectly for the Jets.

1. There are no top QBs and we dont need one

2.  There is no elite LT and we dont need that either

3.  Edge would be next and while most people think there are 2 elite prospects at edge and we pick 4 im not sure that is the case.  Thibs is an elite talent and deserves to be picked 1 or 2.  I like Hutchinson but this is a guy who was a 2nd round pick and who vaulted into the top 3 after one game.  I also believe he liked benefited greatly from Ojabo next to him, while a guy like Karlafitis had "poor stats" because he had no one next to him and was constantly double teamed.  Thibs would be great but if we found a 10 year DE who can play the run and get 7-8 sacks I think that would really help the defense.

4. After edge, this draft gets thin at "premium positions" but has a ton of depth through the second round - and we happen to have 3 of the next 38 picks.  In that group are 3 good off ball LBs (Lloyd, Dean and Harris).  Multiple good TEs, many of whom we will coach at the senior bowl.  Veteran OL who didnt declare last year (Penning, Zion Johnson).  All positions which we need.

Lastly, we actually get to coach the senior bowl and get that huge advantage with all of these guys - especially when it comes to the middle rounds for RBs like Haskins and Jerome Ford and other DBs.

I really hope JD is who this organization thought he was because this is a huge opportunity for the team.

Really good post!

And I agree on the depth of the draft at positions the Jets could really use.  Every time I do a mock draft simulation I'm sitting there at the top of Round 2 with two picks while staring at several good options for LB, TE and even some WRs and CBs.

I still think the #4 and #10 (if the Jets don't trade back) should be used on players who are potentially the most impactful and/or have a high floors at premium positions.  That continues to lead me to Edge rushers and OTs.  If I'm the Jets I wouldn't wrap my head around potential buyer's remorse of taking a guy like Karlaftis or Ekwonu at #4 simply because you think their value is closer to the 5-8 range of the Draft.  Those guys are still two of the top players at premium positions where the Jets have some need.

How many times do we see look-back at previous Drafts and see a guy taken in the 20's or even in the early 2nd round who most people say he should have been a Top 10 or Top 15 pick?  If the Jets are stuck at #4 just take the best available guy with a tilt towards premium positions that are needed.  At least that's how I think of it.

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