Possible Supply & Demand crisis at QB on the horizon?

[Paradis]

2 hours ago, derp said:

It’ll be interesting to see what the middle to lower end of the market bears out. Obviously teams want to pay Mahomes, Allen, and Burrow. What should Carr, Tannehill, Garoppolo, and Cousins really get? What’s Geno Smith going to get? How about Jameis Winston and Jacoby Brissett? What happens when Goff has to move on from the Lions because they went with a young QB is ready? 

Great question... one i've contemplated. Sure the getting was good when the talent matched the conversation... but what happens when teams just say "pass" at these contracts with mediocre at best talent. 

[Paradis]

1 hour ago, pointman said:

Rodgers is the biggest attention whore I have ever seen. Every off season its the same. This time around is pretty sickening with all the garbage coming out of his mouth. I hope he retires, but he won't. He needs someone to care about him. 

he studied under the best

[Paradis]

2 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Both to address the Read-Option and the need for QB's, this was interesting:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/01/18/trey-lance-raises-eyebrows-with-social-media-post-on-ran-carthon/

I don't think the 49ers need to move him, but it would be reasonable to assume he could be traded?

I'd rather try my hand with Wilson 2.0, than Lance... and that's saying something

[VJphillyfan]

11 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Great question... one i've contemplated. Sure the getting was good when the talent matched the conversation... but what happens when teams just say "pass" at these contracts with mediocre at best talent. 

What about baker the touchdown maker?

[bla bla bla]

5 hours ago, Paradis said:

Lets say for argument's sake that Brady and Rodgers retire.... the latter probably more 50/50 at worst, but regardless--

We've seen the departure over the last 3-4 years of: Rivers, Roethlisberger, E Manning, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, and you could argue D Watson is as good as flotsam moving forward. The only teams that have successfully (potentially) replaced that incumbent is NYG w/Jones... Rus Wilson is hanging on by a thread in Den.. Tua, like him or not, has significant health concerns at this point.

The following teams have an inconclusive future at QB, and could reasonably find themselves searching for an answer by next season (2024)

• PIT (I don't believe they're married to Pickett beyond 2023)
• NYJ, obviously
• MIA
• HOU
• TEN
• IND
• LV
• CAR
• TB
• ATL
• NOS
• GB certainly by 2024

Wildcards... could go either way

• SEA
• DET
• LAR
• WSH

That's a demand at 12, possibly 14-15 teams.. pretty much half the league... There's maybe, 4-5 options this year if you're optimistic:

• Carr
• Jimmy G
• Bryce Young
• CJ Stroud
• I guess if you're Levis guy

 

I'm highlighting that we are in a recession comparatively speaking to when teams like NE/GB/IND/NOS/PIT/ATL never drew on the well of resources for so many years. Right now, the demand is going to drive teams to do some interesting things to compensate me thinks. Return of the RB? More Read-option Os?

We are seeing the changing of the guard because of the last 2 collective bargaining agreements IMO. Less practice time + cheap rookies = must perform right away. Remember this is also massive for the OLs, a position group that saw the sharpest decline in quality since those contracts were signed. I think losing those years of patience will hurt the NFL from a pocket passer perspective that takes time to develop. I expect to continue to see the QBs that can extend play.

 

Edit* - it was always going to trend towards more dynamic QBs but it also allows time for development as a passer while leaning on mobility early. 

[Paradis]

25 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

We are seeing the changing of the guard because of the last 2 collective bargaining agreements IMO. Less practice time + cheap rookies = must perform right away. Remember this is also massive for the OLs, a position group that saw the sharpest decline in quality since those contracts were signed. I think losing those years of patience will hurt the NFL from a pocket passer perspective that takes time to develop. I expect to continue to see the QBs that can extend play.

No doubt. The cost/contract inflation has changed expectations, or maybe more pointedly, the timeline teams can afford to assign to develop a QB... 

I do think however, as @jetstream23 point out about top 10s being top 10, that list was reasonably static for 15-20 years (insane really), which both conflagrated expectations, but affected the game; correlating with phasing out of the reliance on a running game. 

[Embrace the Suck]

Wait, QBs aren't in abundance? It's probably the first time in league history that this has been a problem. Strange days have found us. (Ah, I hurt someone's feelings by stating the obvious).

[bla bla bla]

4 minutes ago, Paradis said:

No doubt. The cost/contract inflation has changed expectations, or maybe more pointedly, the timeline teams can afford to assign to develop a QB... 

I do think however, as @jetstream23 point out about top 10s being top 10, that list was reasonably static for 15-20 years (insane really), which both conflagrate expectations, but affected the game; correlated with phasing out of a reliance on a running game. 

Yea, it's wild to think about it. The league losing Luck & RG3 was brutal. 

[derp]

54 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Great question... one i've contemplated. Sure the getting was good when the talent matched the conversation... but what happens when teams just say "pass" at these contracts with mediocre at best talent. 

I think unfortunately teams won’t pass at prices I think of as unreasonable given the supply and demand component…but maybe that’s not true. It’s possible that the Raiders, Titans, and Vikings all move on from mid level QB’s at salaries all a level below that top tier. They’d theoretically rather trade to control the destination and acquire capital than just release, but they may just release those guys.

So maybe a different market comes together. We’ve already seen this season’s top paid by some metric QB’s not going as far as cheaper guys. I’m sure that’ll change as Mahomes and Allen climb, but teams may realize they don’t want to pay for just any quarterback. 

Would honestly make the league a lot more fun if we get a good mid-low level quarterback market. More parity, different ways to win. Is my Jets fan bias of not wanting to need a QB to be successful creeping in there? Absolutely. Even so it’d still be great if they can find a franchise guy in my lifetime.

[RedBeardedSavage]

1 hour ago, Paradis said:

I'd rather try my hand with Wilson 2.0, than Lance... and that's saying something

That's fairly damning on Lance.  

I'd just wonder if Brian Johnson from the Eagles @ OC and a trade for Trey Lance, with the understanding that the Read Option is a major part of any scheme we'd run, is a viable solution.

Granted, Johnson doesn't call the plays in Philly and Lance hasn't proven anything in this league, but as you pointed out, there are more problems @ quarterback in this league than solutions.

Besides all of that, I just think Lance is a likely candidate to be moved this offseason, especially if the 49ers win this weekend and Purdy takes them to the NFC Championship - they need draft picks and Lance is one of the most valuable surplus pieces they have.

[Paradis]

50 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

That's fairly damning on Lance.  

I'd just wonder if Brian Johnson from the Eagles @ OC and a trade for Trey Lance, with the understanding that the Read Option is a major part of any scheme we'd run, is a viable solution.

Granted, Johnson doesn't call the plays in Philly and Lance hasn't proven anything in this league, but as you pointed out, there are more problems @ quarterback in this league than solutions.

Besides all of that, I just think Lance is a likely candidate to be moved this offseason, especially if the 49ers win this weekend and Purdy takes them to the NFC Championship - they need draft picks and Lance is one of the most valuable surplus pieces they have.

I get it. I think Purdy would have to have a signature win for SF to essentially package out the guy they fleeced themselves on 2 drafts for... It's possible though... Anyway, it's not to say that Lance can't become a good QB but he was wildly inaccurate/raw in the pocket against proper coverage. And its been a problem through 2 seasons. 

Regardless, like Fields, given that we passed on Trey for Zach - its political suicide to trade for him now. 

[Maxman]

5 hours ago, Paradis said:

That's a demand at 12, possibly 14-15 teams.. pretty much half the league... There's maybe, 4-5 options this year if you're optimistic:

• Carr
• Jimmy G
• Bryce Young
• CJ Stroud
• I guess if you're Levis guy

 

I'm highlighting that we are in a recession comparatively speaking to when teams like NE/GB/IND/NOS/PIT/ATL never drew on the well of resources for so many years. Right now, the demand is going to drive teams to do some interesting things to compensate me thinks. Return of the RB? More Read-option Os?

Great thread. But Brady and Rodgers will both be back next season, in different uniforms. You also have to add Baker and Darnold to the list of who is available. They are a lower tier but both had success this year.

Will Mike White get a starting offer somewhere?

Thanks for breaking this down though. I have been thinking about it a lot and didn't have the numbers behind it. 

[Lot K Tailgaters]

I wish we kept Darnold for another season.  We surrounded him with no talent at all when he was here.  I’m confident the Jets would have gone at least 10-7 with him at QB this season.  There are only a handful of rookies who can play well immediately.  Most either take 4-5 years or are busts.  
 

I don’t want Brady or Rodgers.  I’d like someone under 35 years old and even better if under 30.  This team can win for 4-5 years.
 

My gut feeling tells me Rodgers stays and maybe Green Bay shops Jordan Love.  We haven’t seen what he can do but he sat behind a great QB.   

[Bob Robbins]

Lets say for argument's sake that Brady and Rodgers retire.... the latter probably more 50/50 at worst, but regardless--
We've seen the departure over the last 3-4 years of: Rivers, Roethlisberger, E Manning, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, and you could argue D Watson is as good as flotsam moving forward. The only teams that have successfully (potentially) replaced that incumbent is NYG w/Jones... Rus Wilson is hanging on by a thread in Den.. Tua, like him or not, has significant health concerns at this point.
The following teams have an inconclusive future at QB, and could reasonably find themselves searching for an answer by next season (2024)

• PIT (I don't believe they're married to Pickett beyond 2023)
• NYJ, obviously
• MIA
• HOU
• TEN
• IND
• LV
• CAR
• TB
• ATL
• NOS
• GB certainly by 2024

Wildcards... could go either way

• SEA
• DET
• LAR
• WSH

That's a demand at 12, possibly 14-15 teams.. pretty much half the league... There's maybe, 4-5 options this year if you're optimistic:

• Carr
• Jimmy G
• Bryce Young
• CJ Stroud
• I guess if you're Levis guy

 
I'm highlighting that we are in a recession comparatively speaking to when teams like NE/GB/IND/NOS/PIT/ATL never drew on the well of resources for so many years. Right now, the demand is going to drive teams to do some interesting things to compensate me thinks. Return of the RB? More Read-option Os?

A lot of these teams you mentioned are standing pat in 2023 in my opinion or at least have a good chance of doing so. So 2024 aside I think we won’t be competing with this long of a list of teams for available QB options in 2023 which is good news. Here is my breakdown:

PIT - Pickens for sure gets a 2nd year as starter

MIA - GM downplayed Tua’s injury risk. They are committed to him for next year

GB - They will either play Rodgers or Love. My prediction is Rodgers gets traded but either way they won’t be looking for a QB

DET - Goff had a top 10 season in basically every QB metric. He is coming back in 2023

LAR - Stafford is coming back for 2023

SEA - I’ve seen rumors they will tag Geno if they don’t come to a long-term deal. I think he stays there for 2023

WAS - To my surprise, there are reports that OC candidates have been told Howell will be the plan at starter. Not sure I 100% buy this but they may stand pat with him and draft a second tier guy

HOU/IND - I have these two teams taking Stroud / Young. IND will trade up to #1 to leap frog HOU and take their first choice

TEN may keep Tannehill and ATL may give Ridder a year as starter, so they are maybe’s in my book. The definite teams that will be competing for 2023 FA and trade targets (or the lower tier QB draft prospects) are us, LV, CAR, TB, and NO.

2024 could get more interesting but there are just so many unknowns that it’s hard to project out who will be looking for a QB after next season. There are surprise breakouts almost every season. Heck, a guy like Purdy could end up being a star for all we know.

[bonkertons]

Pittsburgh will give Pickett at least another year after investing a 1st into him

Jets, obviously need a QB

MIA, same as Jets but doubtful they'll bring in a Carr-type until they know for sure that Tua is done

HOU will draft one of these kids(Young)

IND will draft one of the other kids(Stroud)

Vegas or Carolina will walk away with Levis I'd imagine

GB will most likely give Love a shot, and if they don't someone else will

SEA I'll just say Geno will stick and erase them, instead of adding Geno to the pool of QBs listed

DET like you said like Goff.  If anything they'll probably try to groom a replacement, be it this year or next

LAR have Stafford and will probably bring back Baker as a backup/long term project

 

So basically that's us, LV OR CAR, TEN, TB, ATL, NO, WSH.  7 teams.  Imagine one will go with Richardson and a stopgap.  That's 6 teams.  Potentially another with McKee since he seems to be in that "not as good as the top tier but above the next tier" of QBs in this draft.  So that's 5 teams.  5 teams between Carr and Jimmy.  Also gotta take into account guys like Kyle Trask - Tampa spent a 2nd on him not long ago.  Might want to see what he can do.  Also decent backups looking for their shot like Cooper Rush.  Not to mention QB controversies like SF with Purdy vs Lance.  Also, Lamar(although that would add Baltimore to the list).  Also this is assuming both Brady and Rodgers retire.  Even if Rodgers doesn't retire but stays put, that probably adds Love to the list.  

 

Basically there are always QBs available.  It might seem thin but at the end of the day there are only 32 starting QB jobs, and for the most part teams are going to prefer looking to the draft to get their long term guy.  Even if they miss out on the top-5/10 pick caliber guys.  You have to be in a specific position I think to look for a Carr or Jimmy or Brady or Rodgers type.  Sure, a bunch of teams need QBs, but a good chunk of them are rebuilding.  Plus you'll have teams like Carolina taking shots on highly touted young guys who have struggled, IE Darnold and Mayfield.  Wouldn't be surprised if Zach becomes that guy in a year.  

 

IMO we'll be fine.  

[Paradis]

1 minute ago, bonkertons said:

So basically that's us, LV OR CAR, TEN, TB, ATL, NO, WSH.  7 teams.  Imagine one will go with Richardson and a stopgap.  That's 6 teams.  Potentially another with McKee since he seems to be in that "not as good as the top tier but above the next tier" of QBs in this draft.  So that's 5 teams

Basically there are always QBs available

IMO we'll be fine.  

what. no... all this, i completely disagree and so does current state imo

[JETS SB]

2 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

That's fairly damning on Lance.  

I'd just wonder if Brian Johnson from the Eagles @ OC and a trade for Trey Lance, with the understanding that the Read Option is a major part of any scheme we'd run, is a viable solution.

Granted, Johnson doesn't call the plays in Philly and Lance hasn't proven anything in this league, but as you pointed out, there are more problems @ quarterback in this league than solutions.

Besides all of that, I just think Lance is a likely candidate to be moved this offseason, especially if the 49ers win this weekend and Purdy takes them to the NFC Championship - they need draft picks and Lance is one of the most valuable surplus pieces they have.

Just like Zach isn’t going anywhere with the Jets, Lance isn’t going anywhere in SF.  The cap number won’t allow it. Jimmy G will be elsewhere and Lance will be Purdy’s backup and gadget player. At least for one more season. 

[Hael]

I think we will make a play at the higher tier guys (Garrop/Carr/Lamar) but if we fail, our backup plan has to include the below mid tier 'hold the fort' but still not complete trash, like Tannehill/Andy Dalton.

This teams locker room will explode if we trot out ZW, Darnold or Baker again. 

The benefit of going with a guy like Ryan Tannehill is that it doesn't kill our cap (a qb really dictates what you can and can't afford for the next 5 years or so), it gives you a 50/50 chance at making the playoffs if you really have a good team (so we could evaluate the rest of the O) and it still gives us an out 2 years later if things dno't work out (and they probably won't).

I maintain the only way to really become excellent in this league is to draft a qb, or to have a superbowl caliber roster and luck into a one or two year rental of an aging superstar qb (Manning/Brady).  However, our roster is not primed for a superbowl yet, our qb draft prospects are weak, so this seems to indicate we are in a mulligan mode for 2023.

[neckdemon]

10 hours ago, JETS SB said:

Zach Wilson starting QB week 1

thi is pretty much the only option that won't happen. no way they go down with the zach wilson ship. it would monumentally stupid because they would be guaranteeing their firing and possibly never being hired again for their current positions

[heymangold]

9 hours ago, More Cowbell said:

Jones is getting an extension.  Probably 3 years 100 Million

i understand that - but he's a FA. 

[More Cowbell]

51 minutes ago, heymangold said:

i understand that - but he's a FA. 

I'd be shocked if the Giants aren't  negotiating with him and his agent right now. 

[Flea Flicking Frank]

The exact same problem exists with quality coaches in the NFL. The number of quality coaches has dwindled significantly. 

 

[Flea Flicking Frank]

11 hours ago, heymangold said:

If the giants don’t franchise DJ - which in talking to my giants fan friends they seem unsure - does JD offer him 30-40M?

Does Daboll come with him? Because he was trash the last few years before Daboll came in

[jetstream23]

10 hours ago, Paradis said:

No doubt. The cost/contract inflation has changed expectations, or maybe more pointedly, the timeline teams can afford to assign to develop a QB... 

I do think however, as @jetstream23 point out about top 10s being top 10, that list was reasonably static for 15-20 years (insane really), which both conflagrated expectations, but affected the game; correlating with phasing out of the reliance on a running game. 

With the exception of Brady and Aaron Rodgers (who both seem to be clinging to the ends of their careers with white knuckles!) we've seen the departure of a whole generation of QBs who sat up to for more than a decade.

Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Big Ben, Philip Rivers, and quasi-Top 10ish guys like Cam Newton, Carson Palmer, etc.  And we have additional guys starting to fade away like Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford and possibly Russell Wilson.

I think the supply is low to replenish that even if some elite guys like Mahomes, Burrow and Josh Allen have stepped into the void.  Too many misses at the top of the Draft in recent years are prolonging the problem... Darnold, Baker, Rosen, Zach(?), etc.  Just look at the QBs who are left in the playoffs now.  At this point, with 8 teams left, you'd suspect that most (not all) of them are Top 10ish type QBs.  If they are then they don't really look like the types we've seen at this stage of the playoffs in previous years.

[bonkertons]

11 hours ago, Paradis said:

what. no... all this, i completely disagree and so does current state imo

What is "current state"?  You can disagree with it but it's the truth.  There are always rookies coming in.  Always backups getting a shot, be it on their current team or away from the guy they're being blocked by.  Even the rare Purdy or Russell Wilson or Geno.  Guys who come out of nowhere and take a spot.  

 

But right now we're competing with maybe 3 or 4 teams, as far as teams who need a QB, teams who aren't rebuilding/looking to young options, and teams who would actually be attractive to a veteran QB looking to win.  It's easy to go "same old Jets" and just assume that we're ****ed, but if we don't get one of these guys I highly doubt it'll be because they don't want to come here.  It'll be because Woody/JD still have a crush on Zach and don't want to take the L just yet.  

[section314]

18 hours ago, Paradis said:

Lets say for argument's sake that Brady and Rodgers retire.... the latter probably more 50/50 at worst, but regardless--

We've seen the departure over the last 3-4 years of: Rivers, Roethlisberger, E Manning, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, and you could argue D Watson is as good as flotsam moving forward. The only teams that have successfully (potentially) replaced that incumbent is NYG w/Jones... Rus Wilson is hanging on by a thread in Den.. Tua, like him or not, has significant health concerns at this point.

The following teams have an inconclusive future at QB, and could reasonably find themselves searching for an answer by next season (2024)

• PIT (I don't believe they're married to Pickett beyond 2023)
• NYJ, obviously
• MIA
• HOU
• TEN
• IND
• LV
• CAR
• TB
• ATL
• NOS
• GB certainly by 2024

Wildcards... could go either way

• SEA
• DET
• LAR
• WSH

That's a demand at 12, possibly 14-15 teams.. pretty much half the league... There's maybe, 4-5 options this year if you're optimistic:

• Carr
• Jimmy G
• Bryce Young
• CJ Stroud
• I guess if you're Levis guy

 

I'm highlighting that we are in a recession comparatively speaking to when teams like NE/GB/IND/NOS/PIT/ATL never drew on the well of resources for so many years. Right now, the demand is going to drive teams to do some interesting things to compensate me thinks. Return of the RB? More Read-option Os?

I’d say more like inflation…too many teams chasing too few QB’s?