General Draft/Prospect news

[section314]

5 minutes ago, Lith said:

I read comments like this and similar about the OT class.  And then I think about the WRs, JSN may be a nice pick, but he missed most of the season with a hamstring injury, and those often recur.  Jordan Addison could be a nice pick, but at 13?  We are 5 days from the draft, and there really is nobody that I see at 13 that I think we have to have. 

At this point, if the likely trade is day 2 picks this year and next year, I would rather just send 13 to GB.  Keep all of our day 2, day 3 picks this year and all of next year's picks and be done with it.  I don't expect it to happen, but I would prefer to keep all of our premium draft capital in 24 given the apparent weakness of this class.

Maybe that’s the rub….GB feels the same way?

[32EBoozer]

2 minutes ago, Lith said:

I read comments like this and similar about the OT class.  And then I think about the WRs, JSN may be a nice pick, but he missed most of the season with a hamstring injury, and those often recur.  Jordan Addison could be a nice pick, but at 13?  We are 5 days from the draft, and there really is nobody that I see at 13 that I think we have to have. 

At this point, if the likely trade is day 2 picks this year and next year, I would rather just send 13 to GB.  Keep all of our day 2, day 3 picks this year and all of next year's picks and be done with it.  I don't expect it to happen, but I would prefer to keep all of our premium draft capital in 24 given the apparent weakness of this class.

This is why I am a proponent of trading down if JD can get someone to bite. Load up on Day 2 picks and address LB, DT and Center. This is a great place to find value picks. 

3 minutes ago, Lith said:

“There’s going to be some reaches on offensive linemen in this draft. I think every lineman in the top 100 overall will go a half-round to a full round, if not two rounds, higher than they normally would in a given year.”

This is my concern at #13

[Lith]

4 minutes ago, section314 said:

Maybe that’s the rub….GB feels the same way?

Could very well be.  

However it turns out, I just hope that it is resolved by this time next week.

[Lith]

9 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

16 minutes ago, Lith said:

“There’s going to be some reaches on offensive linemen in this draft. I think every lineman in the top 100 overall will go a half-round to a full round, if not two rounds, higher than they normally would in a given year.”

This is my concern at #13

Then, on the other hand, you read this, which just seems to be a reminder that we are in the homestretch and you can't believe anything being reported for the next few days. 

Either it is a weak OL class, or someone is looking to move up to 3 and take one.  Hard to buy into this one from Pauline. 

[derp]

8 minutes ago, Lith said:

I read comments like this and similar about the OT class.  And then I think about the WRs, JSN may be a nice pick, but he missed most of the season with a hamstring injury, and those often recur.  Jordan Addison could be a nice pick, but at 13?  We are 5 days from the draft, and there really is nobody that I see at 13 that I think we have to have. 

At this point, if the likely trade is day 2 picks this year and next year, I would rather just send 13 to GB.  Keep all of our day 2, day 3 picks this year and all of next year's picks and be done with it.  I don't expect it to happen, but I would prefer to keep all of our premium draft capital in 24 given the apparent weakness of this class.

I have an alternative thought. If the top of this class is relatively weak, say there are 15 players with first round grades, then a pick at 13 should be valuable to a team in the 20’s. Maybe even moreso than usual.

Move down once, maybe twice. Add some capital to soften the blow whatever you’re sending Green Bay’s way for Rodgers. Maybe add some 2024 picks, retain enough picks to clean up the depth issues and build longer term.

Get 21 and 54 from the Chargers, 29 and 40 from the Saints, 25, 57, 160, and a 2024 3 from the Giants. Maybe move down again.

Even though this class isn’t that good, the 13th pick is the most valuable piece of draft capital the Jets have. It’s also way more than a 39 year old QB who may or may not be declining and may or may not play more than one year is worth. I’d rather break it up into a bunch of pieces and use it that way than just give it to Green Bay.

[derp]

4 minutes ago, Lith said:

Then, on the other hand, you read this, which just seems to be a reminder that we are in the homestretch and you can't believe anything being reported for the next few days. 

Either it is a weak OL class, or someone is looking to move up to 3 and take one.  Hard to buy into this one from Pauline. 

Hard to buy into most from Pauline nowadays. Why not move up to 5? Seattle likes to trade down and Indianapolis isn’t a serious threat to go OL. I buy Arizona being into OL if they move down more than this.

[32EBoozer]

29 minutes ago, Lith said:

Then, on the other hand, you read this, which just seems to be a reminder that we are in the homestretch and you can't believe anything being reported for the next few days. 

Either it is a weak OL class, or someone is looking to move up to 3 and take one.  Hard to buy into this one from Pauline. 

Maybe it's weak once you get past Paris Johnson? Jets certainly aren't trading up with potentially only 5 picks.

 

Edited April 22, 2023 by 32EBoozer
Carelessness

[derp]

2 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

Maybe it's weak once you get past Paris Hilton? Jets certainly aren't trading up with potentially only 5 picks.

I don’t think Paris Hilton’s frame translates well to the NFL level.

On a serious note, Johnson seems the safest but I think he’s included.

[maury77]

15 minutes ago, derp said:

I don’t think Paris Hilton’s frame translates well to the NFL level.

On a serious note, Johnson seems the safest but I think he’s included.

To be fair, Paris Hilton has excellent tape. 

[Fantasy Island]

This Rodgers BS has zapped all the excitement I normally have for the draft.  WTF!

[C Mart]

21 minutes ago, derp said:

Hard to buy into most from Pauline nowadays. Why not move up to 5? Seattle likes to trade down and Indianapolis isn’t a serious threat to go OL. I buy Arizona being into OL if they move down more than this.

Rumors DT Carter doesn’t get past Seattle at 5

[32EBoozer]

17 minutes ago, derp said:

I don’t think Paris Hilton’s frame translates well to the NFL level.

On a serious note, Johnson seems the safest but I think he’s included.

[Lith]

22 minutes ago, derp said:

I have an alternative thought. If the top of this class is relatively weak, say there are 15 players with first round grades, then a pick at 13 should be valuable to a team in the 20’s. Maybe even moreso than usual.

Move down once, maybe twice. Add some capital to soften the blow whatever you’re sending Green Bay’s way for Rodgers. Maybe add some 2024 picks, retain enough picks to clean up the depth issues and build longer term.

Get 21 and 54 from the Chargers, 29 and 40 from the Saints, 25, 57, 160, and a 2024 3 from the Giants. Maybe move down again.

Even though this class isn’t that good, the 13th pick is the most valuable piece of draft capital the Jets have. It’s also way more than a 39 year old QB who may or may not be declining and may or may not play more than one year is worth. I’d rather break it up into a bunch of pieces and use it that way than just give it to Green Bay.

I would be all for trading back, if we can.  But I feel like we have the trade back conversation every year, but it hasn't happened for us in R1 since Parcells.  If we can trade back and get additional draft capital that can be used to acquire Rodgers and give us more flexibility days 2 and 3 and/or next year, that is a win.  Its just that I am not about to count on a trade down, if it happens, great.

[32EBoozer]

2 minutes ago, Lith said:

I would be all for trading back, if we can.  But I feel like we have the trade back conversation every year, but it hasn't happened for us in R1 since Parcells.  If we can trade back and get additional draft capital that can be used to acquire Rodgers and give us more flexibility days 2 and 3 and/or next year, that is a win.  Its just that I am not about to count on a trade down, if it happens, great.

We all remember how that turned out!

[derp]

4 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

We all do it, made me laugh. Had to give you a hard time.

[section314]

1 minute ago, 32EBoozer said:

We all remember how that turned out!

Passing on Pace and Jones for that generational talent James Farrior. As Jerry Garcia sang   “ if I had me a shotgun, I’d blow you straight to hell.”

[derp]

3 minutes ago, Lith said:

I would be all for trading back, if we can.  But I feel like we have the trade back conversation every year, but it hasn't happened for us in R1 since Parcells.  If we can trade back and get additional draft capital that can be used to acquire Rodgers and give us more flexibility days 2 and 3 and/or next year, that is a win.  Its just that I am not about to count on a trade down, if it happens, great.

Yeah, absolutely. And realistically, I think that Douglas doesn't know how to tone down his draft day aggressiveness. One of his biggest flaws as a GM, IMO.

I genuinely believe that one of the most important things that leads to drafting successfully is understanding how challenging to identify and select guys who will be good professional football players. And from there having the humility to know that it is difficult enough that you probably can't do it consistently, and are better off just having a bunch of picks than you are making sure you get your guys. Kind of like a different version of the harder you work the luckier you get - more draft picks you have the luckier you get.

But I think this is a unique circumstance with a weaker draft class, having a pick before the big tier drop, and having boxed themselves into a corner where they have to give up hefty draft capital to acquire a quarterback. So I'll let that play out. 

Agree it's a stretch, though. Also think 13 is still too much to give up and would better be used in some way shape or form. Hopefully they're drafting in the 20's next year, the players aren't going to look a whole lot better than they do at 13 this year and won't help this year's team.

[SickJetFan]

30 minutes ago, derp said:

I don’t think Paris Hilton’s frame translates well to the NFL level.

On a serious note, Johnson seems the safest but I think he’s included.

she more of a TE

[Lith]

Just now, 32EBoozer said:

We all remember how that turned out!

Different world today.  No way any GM in 2023 is accepting the deals that we took back in '97.  Moving from 1 to 6 and then to 8 for a cocktail of 3rd and 4th round picks.  Just awful.

[derp]

12 minutes ago, C Mart said:

Rumors DT Carter doesn’t get past Seattle at 5

Could be, I'm skeptical. Think they've been burned by character guys in the past and Carroll is getting old.

[section314]

2 minutes ago, Lith said:

Different world today.  No way any GM in 2023 is accepting the deals that we took back in '97.  Moving from 1 to 6 and then to 8 for a cocktail of 3rd and 4th round picks.  Just awful.

“If you want me to cook the meal….”?

[Barton]

Don’t draft stupid people. Smarts goes a long way. 

[derp]

7 minutes ago, Barton said:

Don’t draft stupid people. Smarts goes a long way. 

Bucky Brooks and Daniel Jeremiah did a podcast on the top statistical guys at various positions and what they had in common. Was consistently instincts and intelligence.

[32EBoozer]

29 minutes ago, Lith said:

Different world today.  No way any GM in 2023 is accepting the deals that we took back in '97.  Moving from 1 to 6 and then to 8 for a cocktail of 3rd and 4th round picks.  Just awful.

Passing on TWO (2) ALL-Time Great OT!

[Lith]

3 minutes ago, derp said:

Yeah, absolutely. And realistically, I think that Douglas doesn't know how to tone down his draft day aggressiveness. One of his biggest flaws as a GM, IMO.

I genuinely believe that one of the most important things that leads to drafting successfully is understanding how challenging to identify and select guys who will be good professional football players. And from there having the humility to know that it is difficult enough that you probably can't do it consistently, and are better off just having a bunch of picks than you are making sure you get your guys. Kind of like a different version of the harder you work the luckier you get - more draft picks you have the luckier you get.

But I think this is a unique circumstance with a weaker draft class, having a pick before the big tier drop, and having boxed themselves into a corner where they have to give up hefty draft capital to acquire a quarterback. So I'll let that play out. 

Agree it's a stretch, though. Also think 13 is still too much to give up and would better be used in some way shape or form. Hopefully they're drafting in the 20's next year, the players aren't going to look a whole lot better than they do at 13 this year and won't help this year's team.

The problem is, I just don't see anyone available at 13 that I think will help the team all that much.  The tackles may be overrated and if Bectoon and Brown are healthy, the are only adding depth in 2023.  JSN is an injury risk.  Are the TE options going to be that much better than what we have in 23?  In a vacuum, is the 13th pick too much for a 40-year old QB who may be on the decline.  Of course it is.

But as I sit here and look at this draft class, and I don't see anybody at 13 that I think is going to make a big difference,  Assuming a trade down is not available, I would rather just bite the bullet, give up the pick, keep all of our other draft capital and be done with it.  And using your argument about more picks being better than less, if I just move one premium pick in a weak draft, then I have more of those other picks left to add players, even if they are less valuable picks.

If the choice is between giving up 13 this year, or say, 43 and next year's 2 which could become a 1, I would rather just give up the one pick.   Which is more about what I think of oour R1 draft options this year.  I would rather have my picks next year if we need to include it as part of a package to grab a QB.  I would rather give up an asset to maintain as much flexibility in the 24 draft.

[32EBoozer]

1 minute ago, Lith said:

The problem is, I just don't see anyone available at 13 that I think will help the team all that much.  The tackles may be overrated and if Bectoon and Brown are healthy, the are only adding depth in 2023.  JSN is an injury risk.  Are the TE options going to be that much better than what we have in 23?  In a vacuum, is the 13th pick too much for a 40-year old QB who may be on the decline.  Of course it is.

But as I sit here and look at this draft class, and I don't see anybody at 13 that I think is going to make a big difference,  Assuming a trade down is not available, I would rather just bite the bullet, give up the pick, keep all of our other draft capital and be done with it.  And using your argument about more picks being better than less, if I just move one premium pick in a weak draft, then I have more of those other picks left to add players, even if they are less valuable picks.

If the choice is between giving up 13 this year, or say, 43 and next year's 2 which could become a 1, I would rather just give up the one pick.   Which is more about what I think of oour R1 draft options this year.  I would rather have my picks next year if we need to include it as part of a package to grab a QB.  I would rather give up an asset to maintain as much flexibility in the 24 draft.

I'd rather first attempt a trade out this year and gain some picks. Then you can trade lowest 2nd and a conditional 3rd next year. Don't throw out the baby with the bathwater, my friend! We might get lucky!

[derp]

7 minutes ago, Lith said:

The problem is, I just don't see anyone available at 13 that I think will help the team all that much.  The tackles may be overrated and if Bectoon and Brown are healthy, the are only adding depth in 2023.  JSN is an injury risk.  Are the TE options going to be that much better than what we have in 23?  In a vacuum, is the 13th pick too much for a 40-year old QB who may be on the decline.  Of course it is.

But as I sit here and look at this draft class, and I don't see anybody at 13 that I think is going to make a big difference,  Assuming a trade down is not available, I would rather just bite the bullet, give up the pick, keep all of our other draft capital and be done with it.  And using your argument about more picks being better than less, if I just move one premium pick in a weak draft, then I have more of those other picks left to add players, even if they are less valuable picks.

If the choice is between giving up 13 this year, or say, 43 and next year's 2 which could become a 1, I would rather just give up the one pick.   Which is more about what I think of oour R1 draft options this year.  I would rather have my picks next year if we need to include it as part of a package to grab a QB.  I would rather give up an asset to maintain as much flexibility in the 24 draft.

I kind of think it doesn’t get done during the draft and it’ll be for 2024 and 2025 picks because that allows both teams to work in Rodgers playing in 2024 conditions to the 2025 picks with them going Green Bay’s way not the Jets’. I think 42/43 and the conditional 2024 pick is rich, but we’ll see.

Wouldn’t say it needs to be a trade down, but I either think Douglas gets a deal done this year and says we’re done - 29 from the Saints would be nice for that - or it’s 2024 and 2025.

Starting to wonder about New Orleans moving up. Had some interesting pre-draft visits: JSN, Myles Murphy, Darnell Wright. Probably daydreaming but it fits them so well.

[football guy]

It sounds like Paris Johnson and Broderick Jones are the two guys the Jets have narrowed things down to at 13. They expect one to be there. Doubt Skoronski falls but even so, may ultimately take one of those 2 due to positional value and long-term upside. Jets in a unique position because the player doesn’t have to start which allows them to develop at their own pace if needed, but the best 5 start. 

Jeremiah recently connected Jones to the Jets but PJ is rumored to have the edge. 
 

1 hour ago, Lith said:

Then, on the other hand, you read this, which just seems to be a reminder that we are in the homestretch and you can't believe anything being reported for the next few days. 

Either it is a weak OL class, or someone is looking to move up to 3 and take one.  Hard to buy into this one from Pauline. 

I think what Pauline means is that teams have contacted Arizona about moving up. If Arizona were to strike a deal to move down, they would likely take an OL. This has been known for a while; Monti Ossenfort shares a similar philosophy as JD— all about building OL. If Will Anderson is there at 3, SEA will try to move up to take him. Arizona could then use the 5th pick on an OL (likely Skoronski)

[Matt39]

@Lith can we move this to the main board since it’s draft week?

[Matt39]

1 hour ago, 32EBoozer said:

Passing on TWO (2) ALL-Time Great OT!

Crazy how far we’ve come with the combine. Check out Leon Johnson’s metrics:

 

[football guy]

28 minutes ago, football guy said:

If Will Anderson is there at 3, SEA will try to move up to take him. Arizona could then use the 5th pick on an OL (likely Skoronski)

Should also add: lots of smoke that HOU is trying to land #3. People at CAA are leaking that they are taking Levis. If that’s truly the case it would allow them to grab their top graded DL + the QB

[derp]

20 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

@Lith can we move this to the main board since it’s draft week?

Let us keep the draft board sheltered from the main board.

[section314]

57 minutes ago, football guy said:

It sounds like Paris Johnson and Broderick Jones are the two guys the Jets have narrowed things down to at 13. They expect one to be there. Doubt Skoronski falls but even so, may ultimately take one of those 2 due to positional value and long-term upside. Jets in a unique position because the player doesn’t have to start which allows them to develop at their own pace if needed, but the best 5 start. 

Jeremiah recently connected Jones to the Jets but PJ is rumored to have the edge. 
 

I think what Pauline means is that teams have contacted Arizona about moving up. If Arizona were to strike a deal to move down, they would likely take an OL. This has been known for a while; Monti Ossenfort shares a similar philosophy as JD— all about building OL. If Will Anderson is there at 3, SEA will try to move up to take him. Arizona could then use the 5th pick on an OL (likely Skoronski)

I guess if you live long enough     The Jets are willing to let an OT sit and develop but had no reservations about doing that for Zach Wilson. Just downright scary. 

[32EBoozer]

35 minutes ago, football guy said:

Should also add: lots of smoke that HOU is trying to land #3. People at CAA are leaking that they are taking Levis. If that’s truly the case it would allow them to grab their top graded DL + the QB

They certainly have enough Draft capital to swing that.... as does Seattle

[football guy]

3 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

They certainly have enough Draft capital to swing that.... as does Seattle

Yes becomes a question of whether ARI wants to move out of the top 10, trade with a division rival, or sit tight and take the BPA. I think they ultimately move down