General Draft/Prospect news

[Beerfish]

1 hour ago, #27TheDominator said:

I disagree.  Getting a QB is not that ******* easy.;  You don't have a team and just snap your fingers and whoop there is a QB.  There are less legit QBs than teams.  You are constantly looking for them and when you find one you hang on like grim death.  Of course you constantly build the team too.  You can end up with the 2010 Jets with their sh*tty QB or the 2018/2021 Jets with their sh*tty team that made people think that their sh*tty QB might do well in other circumstances.  Neither is optimal.  I think you look for your middling guy for a floor - your Kyle Orton, Josh McCown, Alex Smith and draft the QBs that you like in the draft without locking yourself in with a big trade for a guy like Mariota, Goff, or presumably Lance.  

Rams drafted goff who failed then they got stafford and won

Tamba brought in brady and won

Philly drafted hurts 2nd round and they just paid him the moon

Niners are contenders with game managers like jimmie and a 7th round pick starting this after drafting lance high

Mahoomes was drafted10th

You need a QB, you do not have to draft one high before building a team.

Drafting a guy high to a talent-less team is half the time a recipe for disaster, see the jets.

[derp]

2 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

I disagree.  Getting a QB is not that ******* easy.;  You don't have a team and just snap your fingers and whoop there is a QB.  There are less legit QBs than teams.  You are constantly looking for them and when you find one you hang on like grim death.  Of course you constantly build the team too.  You can end up with the 2010 Jets with their sh*tty QB or the 2018/2021 Jets with their sh*tty team that made people think that their sh*tty QB might do well in other circumstances.  Neither is optimal.  I think you look for your middling guy for a floor - your Kyle Orton, Josh McCown, Alex Smith and draft the QBs that you like in the draft without locking yourself in with a big trade for a guy like Mariota, Goff, or presumably Lance.  

I think there’s a distinction between saying there are QB’s out there and saying it’s better to build first.

I’m a broken record on this, but the track record of QB’s drafted 2-5 overall the last decade is horrific, and it’s bad the last 20 years too.

It’s not necessarily that you can’t take a guy there. But if you do, you’d better have an idea of why it’s going to be different this time. Lots of bad teams draft QB’s there and stay bad.

There’s no magic bullet, some teams get stuck in mid level team QB purgatory. But the build first method has had far better results recently, both for making playoff runs and for finding franchise guys.

Really bad teams will fall into franchise guys #1, but usually not later. If you’re bad either the guy needs to be special enough that he’s a guaranteed top pick or you need to support him - which is usually but not always a build first team. We haven’t seen 2 guys that special in the same draft as far back as I can remember.

[section314]

1 hour ago, football guy said:

More smoke

From what you’re hearing are we showing any interest in any of the edge guys or LB Jack Campbell?

[#27TheDominator]

4 hours ago, derp said:

I think there’s a distinction between saying there are QB’s out there and saying it’s better to build first.

I’m a broken record on this, but the track record of QB’s drafted 2-5 overall the last decade is horrific, and it’s bad the last 20 years too.

It’s not necessarily that you can’t take a guy there. But if you do, you’d better have an idea of why it’s going to be different this time. Lots of bad teams draft QB’s there and stay bad.

There’s no magic bullet, some teams get stuck in mid level team QB purgatory. But the build first method has had far better results recently, both for making playoff runs and for finding franchise guys.

Really bad teams will fall into franchise guys #1, but usually not later. If you’re bad either the guy needs to be special enough that he’s a guaranteed top pick or you need to support him - which is usually but not always a build first team. We haven’t seen 2 guys that special in the same draft as far back as I can remember.

 

5 hours ago, Beerfish said:

Rams drafted goff who failed then they got stafford and won

Tamba brought in brady and won

Philly drafted hurts 2nd round and they just paid him the moon

Niners are contenders with game managers like jimmie and a 7th round pick starting this after drafting lance high

Mahoomes was drafted10th

You need a QB, you do not have to draft one high before building a team.

Drafting a guy high to a talent-less team is half the time a recipe for disaster, see the jets.

My point isn't that you should get the QB Before you build a team.  That is silly.  My point is that good qbs are so hard to find when you get the chance you grab it and don't pass it up.  You always build a team and you always look for a qb.  

[Beerfish]

14 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

 

My point isn't that you should get the QB Before you build a team.  That is silly.  My point is that good qbs are so hard to find when you get the chance you grab it and don't pass it up.  You always build a team and you always look for a qb.  

And that is where it all comes down to what you really think of the QBs that are at the top there for you.  As often as not QB need forces bad decisions.

At the top of this draft if you are team that needs a Qb and loves Stroud or Young you take them.  If you kinda like them but do not love them do not take them.

[derp]

8 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

 

My point isn't that you should get the QB Before you build a team.  That is silly.  My point is that good qbs are so hard to find when you get the chance you grab it and don't pass it up.  You always build a team and you always look for a qb.  

You probably got the same response from Beerfish, but of course you’re always looking for quarterbacks. But if you’re in the top 5 that doesn’t mean you take one because you’re there. You take one if you think he’s an awesome prospect. But if you don’t see a guy like that, even if consensus thinks there’s a quarterback worthy of the pick, you have the stones to pass. And either teams suck at evaluating guys up there or they’re just drafting because they’re scared to pass, but it’s not going well lately.

[football guy]

16 hours ago, derp said:

Biggest question could be how far is Arizona willing to drop down, and in that sense who’s going to be up at #3?

Honestly, I like Houston going defense at #2 for them.

This class of QBs is starting to remind me of 2020 in the sense that after Burrow, teams had the QBs similarly graded despite vastly different styles. What I mean by that is both Miami and LA we’re splitting hairs between Tua and Herbert, and it got to a point where both teams were comfortable enough with both that they didn’t move up. In retrospect the Dolphins made a mistake, but that’s kind of the vibe I’m getting with Stroud/Levis, with Richardson a little more of the raw but Uber talented project (like Love was, just arguably more upside). So if teams kind of view then closely, maybe they forgo trading up for them  all together? Right now the main candidates to move up are IND #4, SEA #5, DET #6, LV #7, ATL #8, TEN #11, HOU #12 but there’s plenty of skepticism whether some of these teams would actually take a QB… 

off topic but something else of note:

ARI should be considered a prime candidate to take a tackle if they trade down. They’ve hosted most of the top 5 guys on pre-draft visits 

[32EBoozer]

22 minutes ago, football guy said:

ARI should be considered a prime candidate to take a tackle if they trade down. They’ve hosted most of the top 5 guys on pre-draft visits 

Well that sucks!

[nycdan]

15 hours ago, derp said:

Really bad teams will fall into franchise guys #1, but usually not later. If you’re bad either the guy needs to be special enough that he’s a guaranteed top pick or you need to support him - which is usually but not always a build first team. We haven’t seen 2 guys that special in the same draft as far back as I can remember.

I would say Burrow and Herbert were both special, but Herbert didn't go #2.  Add in Hurts and maybe Tua if he could stay healthy and you have a remarkably deep QB class in that year.

Lot of good points in this thread.  I think, echoing much of it, the reason that guys drafter in the teens often do better than guys drafted 2-5 is because good teams are moving up to draft the former, and really bad teams are drafting the latter.  KC moved up for Mahomes.  BUF moved up for Allen.  Chargers with Herbert might be a rare exception (natural #6 pick).  

[derp]

10 minutes ago, nycdan said:

I would say Burrow and Herbert were both special, but Herbert didn't go #2.  Add in Hurts and maybe Tua if he could stay healthy and you have a remarkably deep QB class in that year.

Lot of good point in this thread.  I think, echoing much of it, the reason that guys drafter in the teens often do better than guys drafted 2-5 is because good teams are moving up to draft the former, and really bad teams are drafting the latter.  KC moved up for Mahomes.  BUF moved up for Allen.  Chargers with Herbert might be a rare exception (natural #6 pick).  

Yup, Herbert's the trickiest one to peg. I think partially him and partially that the Chargers were not as bad as their record the prior year indicated. That team had a lot of talent, a lot of the guys who are still cornerstones on that team were in place when Herbert was drafted, and in 2019 they lost nine games by a touchdown or less.

Herbert came in with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to throw to, Joey Bosa and Derwin James as studs on defense, Ekeler started to get rolling Herbert's rookie year. They added Slater the following year and have brought in veterans, but that was a team with a lot of talent in place when they brought him in.

Herbert is awesome, and absolutely may have succeeded anywhere, but I think that situation was reasonably favorable for a young QB - certainly better than what the Jets have thrown so many young QB's into.

[football guy]

45 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

Well that sucks!

All the more reason to hope that they don’t strike a deal with a team drafting 7-12

[32EBoozer]

Just now, football guy said:

All the more reason to hope that they don’t strike a deal with a team drafting 7-12

I have a feeling teams looking for a quarterback will sit tight and have draft play out. If so, hoping Cards go defense 

[nycdan]

12 minutes ago, derp said:

Yup, Herbert's the trickiest one to peg. I think partially him and partially that the Chargers were not as bad as their record the prior year indicated. That team had a lot of talent, a lot of the guys who are still cornerstones on that team were in place when Herbert was drafted, and in 2019 they lost nine games by a touchdown or less.

Herbert came in with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to throw to, Joey Bosa and Derwin James as studs on defense, Ekeler started to get rolling Herbert's rookie year. They added Slater the following year and have brought in veterans, but that was a team with a lot of talent in place when they brought him in.

Herbert is awesome, and absolutely may have succeeded anywhere, but I think that situation was reasonably favorable for a young QB - certainly better than what the Jets have thrown so many young QB's into.

Agreed.  How that team isn't doing more in the post-season is baffling.  They should be right up there with KC, CIN, and BUF based on talent.  

[derp]

1 hour ago, football guy said:

This class of QBs is starting to remind me of 2020 in the sense that after Burrow, teams had the QBs similarly graded despite vastly different styles. What I mean by that is both Miami and LA we’re splitting hairs between Tua and Herbert, and it got to a point where both teams were comfortable enough with both that they didn’t move up. In retrospect the Dolphins made a mistake, but that’s kind of the vibe I’m getting with Stroud/Levis, with Richardson a little more of the raw but Uber talented project (like Love was, just arguably more upside). So if teams kind of view then closely, maybe they forgo trading up for them  all together? Right now the main candidates to move up are IND #4, SEA #5, DET #6, LV #7, ATL #8, TEN #11, HOU #12 but there’s plenty of skepticism whether some of these teams would actually take a QB… 

off topic but something else of note:

ARI should be considered a prime candidate to take a tackle if they trade down. They’ve hosted most of the top 5 guys on pre-draft visits 

To me Stroud is a much better prospect than Levis/Richardson for a team like Indianapolis that's going to play a guy right away, but they certainly might not see it the same way. I know Levis has the pro style offense experience, but man I just don't see it with him. Maybe they're comfortable risking taking QB3, but I'd think the cost to just go get QB2 is reasonable enough to do it. 

The other factor there is I think Arizona wants to move down, so with all those QB needs behind them I bet someone offers them enough to move off that pick. Otherwise it's what, Tyree Wilson? Unless the Texans take Wilson of course. Arizona's alternatives to moving down are fine, but I'd guess they want to move off that pick and find a taker among the many teams behind them. 

I also think some of those teams are suspiciously quiet. Seattle, Detroit, and Atlanta don't need to take a QB. But Seattle and Detroit hopefully won't be up this high again and Atlanta's just got DJ Ridder. They can absolutely pass, but if I wanted one of these quarterbacks I'd be very, very quiet about it. I also think mock drafters want to find spots in the top ten for Witherspoon and Gonzalez and Detroit's been such an easy spot to plug a corner, but they scream the perfect situation to go get a quarterback and develop.

I'm also a believer in taking a QB if you love the prospect, not if you like him - which is why Houston passing makes sense to me. But I'd think one of those teams loves one of those guys as QB2 in this class - at least enough to give Arizona enough for them to move off #3. Could absolutely be wrong, just my guess.

[derp]

2 minutes ago, nycdan said:

Agreed.  How that team isn't doing more in the post-season is baffling.  They should be right up there with KC, CIN, and BUF based on talent.  

Offensive coordinator change should help. I also think they consistently have pretty poor depth and that roster is top heavy but most of those star players are pretty injury prone.

[C Mart]

Aaron Wilson @AaronWilson_NFL

Rhode Island @RhodyFootball  corner Jordan Jones (5-10 3/8, 186, 4.49 speed, 10-11 broad jump, 37.5 vertical, 4.21 short shuttle, 6.76 3-cone drill), a former JUCO All-American and two-time All @CAASports, did #Jets local Pro Day, per source. Eight interceptions last two seasons

[C Mart]

On 4/15/2023 at 10:35 AM, football guy said:

For those keeping track at home, among the Jets top 30 visits completed or scheduled: 

1. OL Peter Skoronski (round 1) 
2. OL Paris Johnson Jr. (1) 
3. OL Darnell Wright (1) 
4. OT Broderick Jones (1) 
5. OT Anton Harrison (1-2) 
6. DE BJ Ojulari (1-2) 
7. OL Joe Tippmann (1-2) 
8. C John Michael Schmitz (2)
9. DL Tuli Tuipulotu (round 2-3) 
10. TE Luke Musgrave (2-3) 
11. LB Daiyan Henley (2-3)
12. WR Trey Palmer (2-3) 
13. OT Tyler Steen (2-4) 
14. C Rocky Stromberg (3-4) 
15. TE Luke Schoonmaker (3-5) 
16. RB Zach Evans (3-5)
17. RB DeWayne McBride (3-5) 
18. OL Chandler Zavala (3-5) 
19. RB Keaton Mitchell (4-6) 
20. DL Brodric Martin (4-6)
21. S Jason Taylor II (5-UDFA) 
22. QB Aidan O’Connell (5-UDFA) 
23. DL Scott Matlock (5-UDFA) 
24. DL Desjuan Johnson (6-UDFA)
25. CB Jarrick Bernard-Converse (6-UDFA) 
26. WR Xavier Gipson (6-UDFA)

There’s a few more that I‘m missing but by my count that’s 10 OL (mostly round 1-2 prospects), 5 DL, 3 RB, 2 TE, 2 DB, 2 WR, 1 QB, 1 LB 

Some of the more high profile prospects who visited the Local Pro Day: TE Brenton Strange (round 2-4), C Luke Wypler (2-4), DB Ji’Ayir Brown (2-4), DE Andre Carter II (2-4), WR Andrei Iosivas (round 3-5)

 

 

 

Aaron Wilson @AaronWilson_NFL

Rhode Island @RhodyFootball corner Jordan Jones (5-10 3/8, 186, 4.49 speed, 10-11 broad jump, 37.5 vertical, 4.21 short shuttle, 6.76 3-cone drill), a former JUCO All-American and two-time All@CAASports, did #Jets local Pro Day, per source. Eight interceptions last two seasons

 

Jordan Jones @RhodyFootball corner (school-record 33 passes defensed and Rhode Island Defensive Player of the Year, did #Jets local day and has met/spoken with #Jaguars #Giants #Chargers #Rams #Texans #Patriots #Raiders, per a source @OrlandoHulaBowl

[#27TheDominator]

4 hours ago, derp said:

You probably got the same response from Beerfish, but of course you’re always looking for quarterbacks. But if you’re in the top 5 that doesn’t mean you take one because you’re there. You take one if you think he’s an awesome prospect. But if you don’t see a guy like that, even if consensus thinks there’s a quarterback worthy of the pick, you have the stones to pass. And either teams suck at evaluating guys up there or they’re just drafting because they’re scared to pass, but it’s not going well lately.

I agree completely,  Being forced to take a QB because you don't have one is almost always a disaster.  How many coaches didn't survive those top 2 bombs lately? 

The interesting look at this was Maccagnan.  I felt good about him because he passed on Lynch, but then he took Hackenberg and passed on Mahomes and Watson.  Supposedly he was waiting on that 2018 class that everybody said was generational, but I guess not.   Hackenberg was considerably worse than Petty. 

After 2015 there were reasons to feel good about Maccagnan.  He totally botched the QB position drawing a line in the sand with Fitzpatrick and then leaping over it and the whole Lynch/Hackenberg thing.   Getting a guy like Josh McCown or Fitzpatrick while you try for a stud, is kind of what I propose, but Maccagnan did a horrible job looking and handling those guys and then handed the job to Darnold in 2018.  QBs are tough to project which is why the offensive masterminds are so sought after.  Guys like Reid that know what they are looking for and how to use it.  Evidently, Mike LaFleur was not.  

[derp]

12 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

I agree completely,  Being forced to take a QB because you don't have one is almost always a disaster.  How many coaches didn't survive those top 2 bombs lately? 

The interesting look at this was Maccagnan.  I felt good about him because he passed on Lynch, but then he took Hackenberg and passed on Mahomes and Watson.  Supposedly he was waiting on that 2018 class that everybody said was generational, but I guess not.   Hackenberg was considerably worse than Petty. 

After 2015 there were reasons to feel good about Maccagnan.  He totally botched the QB position drawing a line in the sand with Fitzpatrick and then leaping over it and the whole Lynch/Hackenberg thing.   Getting a guy like Josh McCown or Fitzpatrick while you try for a stud, is kind of what I propose, but Maccagnan did a horrible job looking and handling those guys and then handed the job to Darnold in 2018.  QBs are tough to project which is why the offensive masterminds are so sought after.  Guys like Reid that know what they are looking for and how to use it.  Evidently, Mike LaFleur was not.  

I think Maccagnan got himself in trouble because he focused so much on meshing with consensus he ended up repeatedly taking guys who were highly regarded but fell, but they fell because they just weren't especially impactful on a play in play out basis. That and he had absolutely no idea whatsoever how to handle free agency and so he just blew things up and created a huge mess.

Curious to see where Douglas goes from here, but his handling of free agency the last couple years does not have me especially optimistic.

It's funny, the Jets outside round 1 have focused so much on guys with big arms and book smarts. If they've got big arms and book smarts and other teams don't want them, there's probably a legitimate reason that other teams are passing. Think leadership and experience are big but kind of hard to peg - lots of quarterbacks are leaders but it's kind of who stands out among the group of guys that already stand out in that area. Hurts was certainly unique and fit the bill, Prescott may have been as well. And of course those guys miss sometimes too.

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

1 hour ago, derp said:

Yup, Herbert's the trickiest one to peg. I think partially him and partially that the Chargers were not as bad as their record the prior year indicated. That team had a lot of talent, a lot of the guys who are still cornerstones on that team were in place when Herbert was drafted, and in 2019 they lost nine games by a touchdown or less.

Herbert came in with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to throw to, Joey Bosa and Derwin James as studs on defense, Ekeler started to get rolling Herbert's rookie year. They added Slater the following year and have brought in veterans, but that was a team with a lot of talent in place when they brought him in.

Herbert is awesome, and absolutely may have succeeded anywhere, but I think that situation was reasonably favorable for a young QB - certainly better than what the Jets have thrown so many young QB's into.

The Jets have been throwing QBs into average to below average situations over and over. So so defenses with nothing on offense to lift them up. That's why I wouldn't even hate it if they decided to go WR/RB/TE in round 1 again.  Ideal? No. But wouldn't suck if it ended up like that.

[derp]

2 minutes ago, Zachtomims47 said:

The Jets have been throwing QBs into average to below average situations over and over. So so defenses with nothing on offense to lift them up. That's why I wouldn't even hate it if they decided to go WR/RB/TE in round 1 again.  Ideal? No. But wouldn't suck if it ended up like that.

I'm not super into RB round 1 (unless they've got a plan to get that guy and Hall on the field at the same time) or TE (the track record at this position in the first is pretty rough). I think WR's been one of the safer positions to draft and I would not be mad at all about it, though I'd be kind of surprised. 

Lulling everyone into being confident that you're going OT at 13 with the pre-draft visits and then popping JSN because you've already got enough info from Garrett Wilson to be confident in him and not need a pre-draft visit with him would be a pretty epic smokescreen though.

Trade 42 and 43 to Baltimore for 22 and 86. Get a falling Wright/Jones/Anton Harrison at 22. Luke Wypler at 86. Would be a classic Joe Douglas draft.

[derp]

On 4/16/2023 at 3:11 PM, football guy said:

I personally rather the additional assets and pick the BPA at say 25, but doesn’t sound like they’re moving off 13. They only have first round grades on like 15 players. I think they’d have to be blown away, which means it may require a QB falling to them

Not Jets specific, but meshes. Assuming 15 first round grades, wonder who they are. Imagine Young, Stroud, Robinson, Johnson, Jones, Skoronski, Wright, Anderson, Wilson, Witherspoon, and Gonzalez are safe bets. That's eleven. Would guess Van Ness, twelve. Carter and Smith would be character/medical questions. Then Levis and Richardson.

At least one of those guys isn't a first round grade if it's fifteen. Multiple if another guy is in there (JSN, Murphy). I do think there's a tier drop somewhere around there, so roughly 15 makes sense.

[C Mart]

Greg Gabriel @ggabefootball

Apr 17

There have been several rumors in the past few weeks that Pittsburgh wants to move up. I had been told it was for an OLineman but @peter_king  today in his FMIA column says it may be for Jalen Carter. We’ll find out soon enough

[C Mart]

KC trades up to 13?

Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter
Boston College WR Zay Flowers - Mel Kiper’s No. 10 overall prospect - is in Texas today to workout with Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes at the request of the team, per source. Flowers believed his pre-draft process was over after visiting the Titans on Tuesday…until the Chiefs called and asked him to meet up today with Mahomes.

[Augustiniak]

23 hours ago, derp said:

Not Jets specific, but meshes. Assuming 15 first round grades, wonder who they are. Imagine Young, Stroud, Robinson, Johnson, Jones, Skoronski, Wright, Anderson, Wilson, Witherspoon, and Gonzalez are safe bets. That's eleven. Would guess Van Ness, twelve. Carter and Smith would be character/medical questions. Then Levis and Richardson.

At least one of those guys isn't a first round grade if it's fifteen. Multiple if another guy is in there (JSN, Murphy). I do think there's a tier drop somewhere around there, so roughly 15 makes sense.

Would be interesting if that’s a sticking point of the gb/rodgers deal since it’s known that maybe half the first round has first round grades and gb wants the jets pick

[football guy]

Did not have “CJ Stroud is the Josh Rosen of this draft class” on my bingo card

[Matt39]

Stroud ghosted he Manning camp. Kid is a bust. 

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

56 minutes ago, football guy said:

Did not have “CJ Stroud is the Josh Rosen of this draft class” on my bingo card

 

woof. Isn’t he awful against pressure too? Passssss

[Lith]

I don't know why, but I thought this was interesting

[T0mShane]

Draft coverage this year has been especially brutal outside of Brugler, who doesn’t do hot take stuff. NFLN really needs to get Mayock back. 

[T0mShane]

15 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

Stroud ghosted he Manning camp. Kid is a bust. 

I think if you were a young QB, that is the one bridge you would not want to burn. 

[derp]

20 minutes ago, Lith said:

I don't know why, but I thought this was interesting

This stuff moves dramatically and usually pretty late. If you are so inclined and catch rumors at the right time you can get pretty good odds.

[Matt39]

26 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Draft coverage this year has been especially brutal outside of Brugler, who doesn’t do hot take stuff. NFLN really needs to get Mayock back. 

McGinn released his stuff on golongTD. You have to pay but you can cancel. Only stuff worth reading. Edit actually just receivers and tight ends today but a new position group gets released daily now 

Boilerplate stuff from oversaturated draft twitter might be the worst cottage industry going now 

[IntoTheGreen]

6 hours ago, C Mart said:

KC trades up to 13?

Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter
Boston College WR Zay Flowers - Mel Kiper’s No. 10 overall prospect - is in Texas today to workout with Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes at the request of the team, per source. Flowers believed his pre-draft process was over after visiting the Titans on Tuesday…until the Chiefs called and asked him to meet up today with Mahomes.

Never heard of a prospect doing this pre-draft. Really interesting that this is allowed outside of an official team visit. 

[maury77]

1 hour ago, football guy said:

Did not have “CJ Stroud is the Josh Rosen of this draft class” on my bingo card

What happened?