Two Things that Will Not Happen this Offseason

[Integrity28]

2 hours ago, JustInFudge said:

I dont disagree w/ the premise but, lots can change between now and then and you dont know who the late first round QB's will be.  Lamar Jackson was picked 32nd, so it's possible if they found a suiter to trade back they could still take a QB.  I doubt it for the reason you mentioned, but they could hypothetically. 

Also, the T position is actually quite easy to fill, the Jets have just sucked at it since DBrick.  The position isnt really a top 5 pick type of priority  anymore either.  The last top 5 T was Andrew Thomas who is meh and before him Greg Robinson in 2014 and he was a mega bust.  You can find them all over the draft and is consistently the position that is drafted the most each year.  So there is always an abundance out there, for some reason JD just sucks a finding one.  Truthfully, the T position has very much come more scheme/need dependent vs. talent...like this year, Paris Johnson, Darnell Wright, Peter Skornoski, Broderick Jones...you're pull hairs and drafting on scheme fit strengths vs. this dude is definitively better than this dude and they were all drafted right around where the Jets are projected.  I think you're also pulling hairs to tell me who is better right now.  Hell, I'd argue Dwand Jones was the best rookie OT before his injury and he was a 5th rounder.

 

 

At first, I was like, “Gosh, I like this Justin fella. He’s like right in my same page.”

Then, I realized it was you. The peanut butter to my jelly. ❤️

[HighPitch]

3 hours ago, Origen said:

What OT's are going to be FA's this year?  Can we just hire someone who is already good?

Yea and where is the $$$ coming from to get the best lt free agent

[JiFtheOracle]

25 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

At first, I was like, “Gosh, I like this Justin fella. He’s like right in my same page.”

Then, I realized it was you. The peanut butter to my jelly. ❤️

[jetstream23]

7 hours ago, Warfish said:

1. The Jets will absolutely not draft a QB with their top pick in the NFL draft.

I agree.  Like it or not, the Jets are in for the "now" with no regard towards preparing for beyond 2025.  Variety of reasons but easy to see.  Firstly, Rodgers.  But secondly, if it doesn't work out quickly for the Jets here then JD won't be around and he could care less about the QB for 2026.

 

7 hours ago, Warfish said:

2. The Jets will absolutely not trade down in the first round of the NFL draft.

 

Not sure about this one.  Depends where they ultimately pick.  OL is an obvious need.  I don't know but I hear this is a decent class.  Don't need the #1 or #2 guy, but need a couple good players.  Without a 2nd rounder I  could see them trading down and try to walk away with an OT and OG.

[Jethead]

Agree no QB in Round 1. Target is premium OT prospect if draft position allows. If they draft in the 9-10 range could get very interesting. Too soon to handicap.

Expect hard look at Baktiari which is ok if he passes physical. He's a proven LT and Rodgers approved (lol). I'd rather give Becton a mulligan than Tomlinson. Will never understand why he underperformed as he did but so it goes. Time to move on. JD will have a rebuilt OL on paper before the draft. I also expect a new OL coach.

Expect them to try for Davante but not sure the Raiders will cooperate. Still think Mike Evans would look good in Green & White and he's got another good year in him. Lazard will be back, he's already paid for.

 

 

[varjet]

2 hours ago, jamesr said:

My thinking is that they could have Becton + rookie compete for LT / RT, and the longer term view is the rookie will play LT down the line if not straight away.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

The reality is that JD made way too many other mistakes, particularly on the OL, to allow signing AR8 to immediately make them playoff competitive.  The hole is very deep to dig out of.  And one decent WR does not cut it either. 

If they had another OL drafted from last year, like Jones or Harrison, or another WR, we would be in better shape.  

[Ron Rico]

[Sperm Edwards]

2 hours ago, varjet said:

• Greg Van Roten, George Fant and other ex-Jet OL are out in the NFL functioning.   I really believe that if they can upgrade scheme and coaching they can better play out of the same players.

Yes, this.

• I really wonder what they are going to do with Tomlinson.  What a bad contract.  Woody saves $12mm cash by cutting him, and $8mm of cap space.  But if we can replace him, or restructure him, I would do that.  

He saves $13MM of cash and he doesn't. It's only saved if he's replaced with nobody. If he's swapped for a different $13MM player, the position is upgraded. 

I'm thoroughly unimpressed with him, like most Jets fans, and tbh the reason he was brought in was because they were running the same (or similar-enough) offense Tomlinson most recently played in in SF. That offense went away with LaFleur in January, though Tomlinson's 2nd year was guaranteed. Not so his upcoming 3rd contract season.

Don't discount the possibility they bring him back after a big pay cut. 

• Becton should be offered an extension for a very reasonable sum of money.  We can find a use for him.  If he turns it down, he turns it down.

I agree with a lot of your plans, but this isn't one of them. He's been beaten so thoroughly so many times, and it's not like surrendering a sack due to a communication breakdown which could be remedied with an upgraded OLC. Last week someone threw around the idea of moving him inside to guard, as his feet just may not be fast enough to handle all these outside speed rushers, but it's doubtful Mr. I. AM. A. LEFT. TACKLE would eagerly accept that move, plus he's kinda tall to line up inside.

My feeling is he made it through this season, after missing the prior two, so take the money & run on that instead of guessing this surprise season of missing a mere 2 games will be his new baseline going forward. Bonus is they'll surely get at least some level comp pick in '25. 

• Ever since the great Jet OL from 10+ years ago, we have discussed replacing OL with FAs.  We have never signed the top FA OL for a variety of reasons-Jetsy, $, coaching, NJ, taxes, no QB, etc.  No Thuney, No Conklin, etc.  there will be no Jonah Williams.  We have to find ways to get OL and coach them better.  The first way is through the draft.

The Jetsy reason they didn't sign the top FA OL this past offseason was Orlando Brown took a lower offer from the Bengals, not from an unwillingness to move on from Duane Brown.

FWIW Connor McGovern was the top-rated center when he was first signed. The top-rated OT in 2020, when they signed Fant, was probably Jack Conklin (who took what looked like an under-market contract with Cleveland). I think the idea was they were leaning towards a tackle (became Becton) but didn't want to have to force the rookie to play blind side, as Conklin was strictly a RT. Had they signed Conklin, Wirfs may not have been a consideration even if he was the only one of the top 4 that fell to them. What a cluster****, lol.

• The optimal QB room next year is Rodgers, a Vet QB2 and a developmental QB that can hang out on the practice squad.  I don't think that happens and we will need 3 on the 53.  That assumes that Zach will be unloaded in the offseason for some compensation.  If not Zach is QB3.  JD really blew it by playing Zach against the Dolphins,.  He should have gotten a practice injury and stood pat on his Texans' performance for trade value.  

Certainly in hindsight that would've been better, given the meltdown performance against Miami -- even more so if the rumors were accurate that they were certainly moving on from him in the spring. Problem is they have other players, and if the overwhelming consensus is Zach is the best available QB on the roster, it's a problem when the team knows you're tanking while allowing them to risk permanent injury even if it seems like a smarter move purely on paper.

I think they'll trade Zach. If they do take a developmental QB (likely day 3 or UDFA), he'll have to be a really late pick unless they want to be forced into rostering a QB they have no intention of playing as a rookie, or risk a 3rd-4th round rookie getting poached off the PS. 

• This team would be in much, much better shape if we had an additional WR or OT (like Anton Harrison) from the 2023 draft than MCDIV.   JD basically bungled his first 2 drafts, recovered in 2022, but then largely blew 2023.  That is why the team feels so bad.  It will be hard to recover from that.  

Yeah, no argument from me on that. They did try with Warren, but with the line looking so crappy even from its talented and previously-successful linemen - in '23 everyone's looked like a very below-average talent on balance - it's really hard to get a handle on if it's that it's due to crappy OL coaching, him being a crappy player, or both. Same thing people are wondering about with Tippmann, tbh. 

 

[Pennington]

What I can't believe is that there are people that want this team to draft a QB with Saleh and Hackett still in place. This team MUST not draft any QBs until there is a new GM and a head coach that is capable of developing a QB. Zach could have been the guy but we will never know because he never received any coaching and that is why we cannot let these coaches near any young QBs. 

[Pennington]

The truth is next season is over before it even starts if Saleh and Hackett are still employed by this team. If they are this team will not win more than 7 games and thats only if Aaron doesn't get maimed playing behind this offensive line which is pretty damn unlikely.

[LionelRichie]

11 hours ago, Warfish said:

1. The Jets will absolutely not draft a QB with their top pick in the NFL draft.

2. The Jets will absolutely not trade down in the first round of the NFL draft.

Why?

Simple:  Aaron Rodgers.  He is here (as he's now saying) for "more than one season" starting in 2024.  His cap hit is massive in any "move on from Rodgers" scenario.  And JS and Saleh will be managing for their careers in 2024.  There is no flexibility to be cute, or play "I'm smarter than the league" games. 

1. QB is out because (like MacDonald last year) it serves no purpose whatsoever in the short term (1-2 years) which is all that JD, Saleh and Rodgers care about for 2024/2025.  It doesn't matter that fans will demand it, doesn't matter if a guy falls (the top guys won't, but still), it only matters what serves the interests of the current leadership in 2024 and maybe 2025.  So "QB of the future" is 100% out of the picture.  No point fantasizing friends, sorry.

Also, as a note, Zach's big signature win also plays a role here, as it blew the Jets draft position.  There is almost no chance we will pick in the top 4 picks, and by pick 5, three of the top QB prospects will all be gone.  Picking ~5-10 or worse, you'd be reaching (as things stand now).  Lose vs. the Texans, and who knows, but now?  We're on the outside looking in at the current top three QB's.

2. So no trade downs either?  Nope.  JD has no more wiggle room for being cute.  He must do two things, and be SEEN to be doing two things:  Drafting the best possible Offensive Tackle possible, and not missing on one for some lesser prospect by trading down and missing out on the better guys.  He no longer gets (from anyone) the "benefit of the doubt" if he trades down, and gets the fifth OT instead of the 1st or 2nd prospect.  Yes, a trade down would potentially be quite a smart move (if often is), but beyond the simply challenge of finding a trade partner, agreeing to mutually beneficial trade terms, etc. you have to have the luxury and flexibility of security to allow you to play those games with a look to the longer term best interests.  Again, JD no longer has that, he is in a box, and must pick the best OT available at the best pick he has available.  This O-line is that bad.  Aaron Rodgers is everything for JD (and Saleh) and he simply will not be behind a line that looks like this years.

Some fans will poo poo this and say "naaa, we just need everyone healthy", i.e. the same poop we've now heard for years.  Sorry, nope.  We're not a health check away from a great O-line.  We have two guys who might be ok (AVT, Tippmann) and that's about it.  The rest is what they've shown us, mostly poop, starting with soon to be gone Becton.  JD needs several O-linemen this draft and FA, not just one.  But it starts with an elite OT prospect, regardless of if Rodgers "wants" to play with a rookie or not. Rodgers isn't dumb, he knows what his alternative is.  So trade downs are out.

Disagree?  

Great, tell us why JD can both trade down AND pick a QB in round 1, lol.  You know, or one or the other.  

P.S. We Jets Fans might want to start scouting 6th/7th round and UDFA QB prospects, because that's more likely what we're gonna get, and then only IF JD moves on from Zach Wilson, a far-from-certain-thing no matter how much we all may want it.

When you have a good team and a good coach apparently Mr irrelevant can look like an MVP so I’m all set without drafting another qb in rd 1.  It hasn’t worked out anyway. 

[SickJetFan]

Predicting what the jets will do is like predicting what the next topic of conversation with Kenyon West.

What I wanna know is what did MC have over Saleh to get released.  Not saying big loss but cutting made no sense at all.  They didn’t save money, they keep trying out RBs, they could have kept him 3rd or 4th string…was seemingly random and not predictable.

trying to predict last season 1st rounder was comical …boy did they outsmart the whole world with that one…not

There are 3 money predictions when it comes to jets

1. they will run on 1st and 2nd down

2. JD will have at least one fist pump caught on camera during next draft

3. they with scapegoat at least 2 position coaches at end of season

 

[UnknownJetFan]

14 hours ago, rangerous said:

I don’t believe they’ll draft a qb in round one.  But I also don’t think trading down is out of the question.  Why? The odds that even a top tackle is ready out of the box is still slim.  And they have a couple holes to fill besides tackle.  They need a guard and another tackle.  And they really should think hard about drafting a qb.  So if they trade back a few spots and pick up a mid third or fourth rounder then that might be enough to fill most of the holes.  Of course how this plays out depends on how they deal with free agency.  Becton looms large.  He has not played well of late and they will need to be careful about the contract they offer.  As for qb, I think Zach has improved his trade value and also his value to the teams future.  I doubt if they exercise his fifth year option, at least as long as Rodgers is around, but maybe they offer him something more like a back up contract or one with incentives.

It also may be unpopular, but as we had to do in the past, we likely have to sacrifice some defense to get this offense repaired. So, if we can get a 2nd rounder or perhaps a 3rd and 4th rounder for Huff in a trade I would think we have to take it. That could net us both oline and WR draft prospects and as we see our pass rush can’t help us beat teams like the fins when their QB throws the ball in 2 secs with track star WRs.

[Rich Thornburgh]

15 hours ago, dcJet said:

Man, this team is a mess.

 

 

[Rich Thornburgh]

5 hours ago, LionelRichie said:

When you have a good team and a good coach apparently Mr irrelevant can look like an MVP so I’m all set without drafting another qb in rd 1.  It hasn’t worked out anyway. 

We have neither a good team nor a good coach

[Dunnie]

It also may be unpopular, but as we had to do in the past, we likely have to sacrifice some defense to get this offense repaired. So, if we can get a 2nd rounder or perhaps a 3rd and 4th rounder for Huff in a trade I would think we have to take it. That could net us both oline and WR draft prospects and as we see our pass rush can’t help us beat teams like the fins when their QB throws the ball in 2 secs with track star WRs.

Saleh sacrifice his precious D ???

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[Rich Thornburgh]

14 hours ago, Saul Goodman said:

Unfortunate because I like all 3 of the top quarterbacks. I’d guess that 2 of the 3 will become FQB’s.

Maybe we finally get lucky with a mid/late round quarterback 😂

Great year to NOT draft a qb.  

[BornJetsFan1983]

I'm not surer why we wouldn't just trade back and draft a lineman late first round. Then if we get a second draft another. Then is th third guess what draft a lineman. East Bam. Now you have three rook to go with avt and tippman. Pick up whatever fant type player there is maybe two. And you have how self a line. 

 

Well actually I would love is to just trade back and get. Late first and second. Take two lineman in the first three rounds and a wr with the first or second pick. That would be great. Someone hopefully that is good enough to give us a wr 2. 

[Sperm Edwards]

4 hours ago, UnknownJetFan said:

It also may be unpopular, but as we had to do in the past, we likely have to sacrifice some defense to get this offense repaired. So, if we can get a 2nd rounder or perhaps a 3rd and 4th rounder for Huff in a trade I would think we have to take it. That could net us both oline and WR draft prospects and as we see our pass rush can’t help us beat teams like the fins when their QB throws the ball in 2 secs with track star WRs.

Since this year's trade deadline passed, Huff isn't the Jets' player to trade anymore. There are only two ways to trade him now, and neither is realistic:

The most practical way to retain-to-trade a UFA is to franchise tag him. Except no one's going to use the FT amount as a baseline on a multi-year contract for Huff in the first place, so in effect tagging him makes him un-tradable. He'll be on the Jets for one more season at $20MM if they did that, which they won't.

The only other option - which isn't happening either, but in theory - is if they give him a 3-year extension that, while it has a year or two of guaranteed money, it's not in the form of a serious signing bonus. In that case they could trade him, but that depends on how much it is. There'll be no incentive for Huff to bypass highest-bidder offers in FA if he's not getting up-front money from the Jets, so someone who wants him that badly will just sign him as a FA. Even with a relative lack of playing time and all the neck-wrapping holding penalties that went uncalled against him, he's got 8 sacks on the season. With 3 games left - two of them against Howell and Zappe who take 4 sacks/week - he could definitely finish the season with 10, so they're not getting him on a team-friendly (let alone a trade-friendly) deal after accomplishing that on a team that relegates opponents to so few 2nd half must-pass drives to catch up to big Jets leads, aside from again being off the field more than he's been on it. 

If the Jets do reach an extension agreement with Huff, they're keeping him. If they don't, they'll probably be due a 4th round comp pick in '25 (give or take a round, depending on a deal Huff gets elsewhere).

The realistic way to get a 2nd-3rd rounder for one of our edge/end rushers is to trade one that's already under contract. That means you're talking about JFM, JJII, or McDonald.

The problem is McDonald played so little, and Huff so exclusively on passing downs, that they're unlikely to put themselves in a position to force-feed themselves into making one of those two an every-down player (or with Saleh's DL rotation, I guess more correctly an any-down player than every-down) by trading JJII or JFM.

JJII isn't going anywhere after taking such a big leap from a rookie season of, "Well, at least the other 3 high picks were excellent," into a full-time starter (as much as any edge/end is full time on Saleh's DL), and justifiably so. But he'd have the highest trade value of any edge/end on the team: a very recent 1st round pick, who had a top 10 projected draft grade before sliding after a long run on non-edge picks, and notching (so far) 8-10 sacks in year two. 

JFM would definitely have some trade value, but it's not going to be a 2nd rounder. A mid or late 3rd seems unlikely but not impossible, depending on the team and how desperate they feel they are. I could see someone trading a 4th for him. Thing is I'd be worried about a larger DE now being considered a draft need if Saleh/Ulbrich aren't 100% confident Clemons will improve enough to fully step into JFM's spot. Truth is, though, his trade value is probably highest after the draft, to a team that loses a starter in camp or early into next season, which doesn't add a pick to the Jets in '24.

They could trade Clemons, but coming off a weak 2nd season the highest they'd dream of getting for him now is a 4th, and even if they could swing that it'd hardly replace the high 2nd lost for Rodgers, if that's the reason for doing it. He bulked up to small DT weight (not unlike Solomon Thomas did, who gets more playing time than Clemons), but still gets used as an end - now a visibly slower one - which more or less makes him best suited as a 34DE on a team that uses 4-man fronts, or a rotational interior player for running downs. He's now more of a JFM-lite than a younger Solomon Thomas, except unlike JFM he's been pretty invisible in that role.

 

In practical terms, it'd be a lot easier to get a higher pick by dropping a few slots in round 1, but it'd depend who's on the board at what positions. If someone wants to move up to the Jets' slot for that next-best QB prospect, and there's no obvious no-brainer OL or WR pick when we're on the board, I could see them moving down a little (and in such a scenario, they probably should, seeing how they are probably wedded to Rodgers for the next two seasons).

[Sperm Edwards]

13 minutes ago, BornJetsFan1983 said:

I'm not surer why we wouldn't just trade back and draft a lineman late first round. Then if we get a second draft another. Then is th third guess what draft a lineman. East Bam. Now you have three rook to go with avt and tippman. Pick up whatever fant type player there is maybe two. And you have how self a line. 

 

Well actually I would love is to just trade back and get. Late first and second. Take two lineman in the first three rounds and a wr with the first or second pick. That would be great. Someone hopefully that is good enough to give us a wr 2. 

You had me with the trade-back (depending on the board when we pick), until you went with the idea of starting 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round rookies on the line. That's how a team retools its line if it's tanking for a run the following season. The "bam" will be the slamming shut of the season as Rodgers again goes on IR in week 1.

They need to bring in two veteran starting lineman because Becton is undeserving of an extension and based on 2023 they can't put a serious face on even penciling in Warren or Mitchell as the other starter heading into the draft, and if they do they're arguably in no position to trade down even if they badly reach for the next-best tackle prospect by 8-10 slots.

My expectation is overpaying badly for a meh starting tackle with at least 2 guaranteed seasons, bringing back Tomlinson by dropping his salary by $5-6MM and guaranteeing it, re-signing Brown for a lot less than $9MM (ideally to back up, if he still wants to play in that role), and penciling in the best among Brown-Warren-Mitchell and another camp fodder/backup name at one tackle slot as they head into the draft, missing out on the best tackle prospects, and refusing to reach for the next-best so we end up with the 5th best tackle prospect at #20 who'll get his stuff pushed in regularly as a rookie, starting the season opposite the overpaid bookend who'll be injured by Sept 15th.

IOW I expect stupidity and failure: two things the Jets actually do well.

[Bugg]

On 12/20/2023 at 9:51 AM, nj meadowlands said:

Things the Jets will get this offseason:

1. New uniforms (probably the 80s throwbacks from week 1)
2. Grass at MetLife
3. David Bakhtiari
4. A new OL coach
5. Deserved scorn for giving Joe Douglas and Robert Saleh a mulligan
6. Davante Adams
7. Joe Alt
8. Karmic warfare from @Sperm Edwards once CJ Mosley's contract is restructured for another season

Things the Jets will not get this offseason:

1. Jayden Daniels (and it will haunt them forever)
2. A new GM, HC, or OC
3. Super Bowl hype
4. Renewed or continued pacts with Mekhi Becton, Laken Tomlinson, CJ Uzomah, Duane Brown, or Carl Lawson

BothAdams (31 next season) and Bakhtiari (33) are due huge ass roster bonuses from their current teams on or about St. Patrick's day. Both coming off major season-ending injuries. Since the de facto GM Aaron Rodgers wants his boys, coming off this disaster, expect these 2 are givens.

[DonCorleone]

20 hours ago, Warfish said:

1. The Jets will absolutely not draft a QB with their top pick in the NFL draft.

2. The Jets will absolutely not trade down in the first round of the NFL draft.

Why?

Simple:  Aaron Rodgers.  He is here (as he's now saying) for "more than one season" starting in 2024.  His cap hit is massive in any "move on from Rodgers" scenario.  And JS and Saleh will be managing for their careers in 2024.  There is no flexibility to be cute, or play "I'm smarter than the league" games. 

1. QB is out because (like MacDonald last year) it serves no purpose whatsoever in the short term (1-2 years) which is all that JD, Saleh and Rodgers care about for 2024/2025.  It doesn't matter that fans will demand it, doesn't matter if a guy falls (the top guys won't, but still), it only matters what serves the interests of the current leadership in 2024 and maybe 2025.  So "QB of the future" is 100% out of the picture.  No point fantasizing friends, sorry.

Also, as a note, Zach's big signature win also plays a role here, as it blew the Jets draft position.  There is almost no chance we will pick in the top 4 picks, and by pick 5, three of the top QB prospects will all be gone.  Picking ~5-10 or worse, you'd be reaching (as things stand now).  Lose vs. the Texans, and who knows, but now?  We're on the outside looking in at the current top three QB's.

2. So no trade downs either?  Nope.  JD has no more wiggle room for being cute.  He must do two things, and be SEEN to be doing two things:  Drafting the best possible Offensive Tackle possible, and not missing on one for some lesser prospect by trading down and missing out on the better guys.  He no longer gets (from anyone) the "benefit of the doubt" if he trades down, and gets the fifth OT instead of the 1st or 2nd prospect.  Yes, a trade down would potentially be quite a smart move (if often is), but beyond the simply challenge of finding a trade partner, agreeing to mutually beneficial trade terms, etc. you have to have the luxury and flexibility of security to allow you to play those games with a look to the longer term best interests.  Again, JD no longer has that, he is in a box, and must pick the best OT available at the best pick he has available.  This O-line is that bad.  Aaron Rodgers is everything for JD (and Saleh) and he simply will not be behind a line that looks like this years.

Some fans will poo poo this and say "naaa, we just need everyone healthy", i.e. the same poop we've now heard for years.  Sorry, nope.  We're not a health check away from a great O-line.  We have two guys who might be ok (AVT, Tippmann) and that's about it.  The rest is what they've shown us, mostly poop, starting with soon to be gone Becton.  JD needs several O-linemen this draft and FA, not just one.  But it starts with an elite OT prospect, regardless of if Rodgers "wants" to play with a rookie or not. Rodgers isn't dumb, he knows what his alternative is.  So trade downs are out.

Disagree?  

Great, tell us why JD can both trade down AND pick a QB in round 1, lol.  You know, or one or the other.  

P.S. We Jets Fans might want to start scouting 6th/7th round and UDFA QB prospects, because that's more likely what we're gonna get, and then only IF JD moves on from Zach Wilson, a far-from-certain-thing no matter how much we all may want it.

Why would the Jets want to pick a QB at no 1 if a good DE is available?

[rangerous]

1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Since this year's trade deadline passed, Huff isn't the Jets' player to trade anymore. There are only two ways to trade him now, and neither is realistic:

The most practical way to retain-to-trade a UFA is to franchise tag him. Except no one's going to use the FT amount as a baseline on a multi-year contract for Huff in the first place, so in effect tagging him makes him un-tradable. He'll be on the Jets for one more season at $20MM if they did that, which they won't.

The only other option - which isn't happening either, but in theory - is if they give him a 3-year extension that, while it has a year or two of guaranteed money, it's not in the form of a serious signing bonus. In that case they could trade him, but that depends on how much it is. There'll be no incentive for Huff to bypass highest-bidder offers in FA if he's not getting up-front money from the Jets, so someone who wants him that badly will just sign him as a FA. Even with a relative lack of playing time and all the neck-wrapping holding penalties that went uncalled against him, he's got 8 sacks on the season. With 3 games left - two of them against Howell and Zappe who take 4 sacks/week - he could definitely finish the season with 10, so they're not getting him on a team-friendly (let alone a trade-friendly) deal after accomplishing that on a team that relegates opponents to so few 2nd half must-pass drives to catch up to big Jets leads, aside from again being off the field more than he's been on it. 

If the Jets do reach an extension agreement with Huff, they're keeping him. If they don't, they'll probably be due a 4th round comp pick in '25 (give or take a round, depending on a deal Huff gets elsewhere).

The realistic way to get a 2nd-3rd rounder for one of our edge/end rushers is to trade one that's already under contract. That means you're talking about JFM, JJII, or McDonald.

The problem is McDonald played so little, and Huff so exclusively on passing downs, that they're unlikely to put themselves in a position to force-feed themselves into making one of those two an every-down player (or with Saleh's DL rotation, I guess more correctly an any-down player than every-down) by trading JJII or JFM.

JJII isn't going anywhere after taking such a big leap from a rookie season of, "Well, at least the other 3 high picks were excellent," into a full-time starter (as much as any edge/end is full time on Saleh's DL), and justifiably so. But he'd have the highest trade value of any edge/end on the team: a very recent 1st round pick, who had a top 10 projected draft grade before sliding after a long run on non-edge picks, and notching (so far) 8-10 sacks in year two. 

JFM would definitely have some trade value, but it's not going to be a 2nd rounder. A mid or late 3rd seems unlikely but not impossible, depending on the team and how desperate they feel they are. I could see someone trading a 4th for him. Thing is I'd be worried about a larger DE now being considered a draft need if Saleh/Ulbrich aren't 100% confident Clemons will improve enough to fully step into JFM's spot. Truth is, though, his trade value is probably highest after the draft, to a team that loses a starter in camp or early into next season, which doesn't add a pick to the Jets in '24.

They could trade Clemons, but coming off a weak 2nd season the highest they'd dream of getting for him now is a 4th, and even if they could swing that it'd hardly replace the high 2nd lost for Rodgers, if that's the reason for doing it. He bulked up to small DT weight (not unlike Solomon Thomas did, who gets more playing time than Clemons), but still gets used as an end - now a visibly slower one - which more or less makes him best suited as a 34DE on a team that uses 4-man fronts, or a rotational interior player for running downs. He's now more of a JFM-lite than a younger Solomon Thomas, except unlike JFM he's been pretty invisible in that role.

 

In practical terms, it'd be a lot easier to get a higher pick by dropping a few slots in round 1, but it'd depend who's on the board at what positions. If someone wants to move up to the Jets' slot for that next-best QB prospect, and there's no obvious no-brainer OL or WR pick when we're on the board, I could see them moving down a little (and in such a scenario, they probably should, seeing how they are probably wedded to Rodgers for the next two seasons).

Good points about the trade scenarios.  One thing I wonder is how the personnel would fit if they went into a 3-4 base alignment (like if saleh is launched).  They’d need one of those huge guys at nose but could just and or Macdonald move to the old spots?

[Doggin94it]

On 12/20/2023 at 9:25 AM, Warfish said:

1. The Jets will absolutely not draft a QB with their top pick in the NFL draft.

2. The Jets will absolutely not trade down in the first round of the NFL draft.

Why?

Simple:  Aaron Rodgers.  He is here (as he's now saying) for "more than one season" starting in 2024.  His cap hit is massive in any "move on from Rodgers" scenario.  And JS and Saleh will be managing for their careers in 2024.  There is no flexibility to be cute, or play "I'm smarter than the league" games. 

1. QB is out because (like MacDonald last year) it serves no purpose whatsoever in the short term (1-2 years) which is all that JD, Saleh and Rodgers care about for 2024/2025.  It doesn't matter that fans will demand it, doesn't matter if a guy falls (the top guys won't, but still), it only matters what serves the interests of the current leadership in 2024 and maybe 2025.  So "QB of the future" is 100% out of the picture.  No point fantasizing friends, sorry.

Also, as a note, Zach's big signature win also plays a role here, as it blew the Jets draft position.  There is almost no chance we will pick in the top 4 picks, and by pick 5, three of the top QB prospects will all be gone.  Picking ~5-10 or worse, you'd be reaching (as things stand now).  Lose vs. the Texans, and who knows, but now?  We're on the outside looking in at the current top three QB's.

2. So no trade downs either?  Nope.  JD has no more wiggle room for being cute.  He must do two things, and be SEEN to be doing two things:  Drafting the best possible Offensive Tackle possible, and not missing on one for some lesser prospect by trading down and missing out on the better guys.  He no longer gets (from anyone) the "benefit of the doubt" if he trades down, and gets the fifth OT instead of the 1st or 2nd prospect.  Yes, a trade down would potentially be quite a smart move (if often is), but beyond the simply challenge of finding a trade partner, agreeing to mutually beneficial trade terms, etc. you have to have the luxury and flexibility of security to allow you to play those games with a look to the longer term best interests.  Again, JD no longer has that, he is in a box, and must pick the best OT available at the best pick he has available.  This O-line is that bad.  Aaron Rodgers is everything for JD (and Saleh) and he simply will not be behind a line that looks like this years.

Some fans will poo poo this and say "naaa, we just need everyone healthy", i.e. the same poop we've now heard for years.  Sorry, nope.  We're not a health check away from a great O-line.  We have two guys who might be ok (AVT, Tippmann) and that's about it.  The rest is what they've shown us, mostly poop, starting with soon to be gone Becton.  JD needs several O-linemen this draft and FA, not just one.  But it starts with an elite OT prospect, regardless of if Rodgers "wants" to play with a rookie or not. Rodgers isn't dumb, he knows what his alternative is.  So trade downs are out.

Disagree?  

Great, tell us why JD can both trade down AND pick a QB in round 1, lol.  You know, or one or the other.  

P.S. We Jets Fans might want to start scouting 6th/7th round and UDFA QB prospects, because that's more likely what we're gonna get, and then only IF JD moves on from Zach Wilson, a far-from-certain-thing no matter how much we all may want it.

It's not even a question. Look at this year's FA OL class - it's a wasteland. The center list is actually pretty decent at the top - Williams, James, & Cushenberry, and the Jets may make a run at Williams given the ability to take him from a division rival and also the flexibility of having both him and Tippmann capable of playing OG. But OG and OT are disasters. Dotson and Hunt are the only candidates at OG (third ranked OG FA is 34 year old Kevin Zeitler), and at OT it's Tyron Smith (great but never healthy), Trent Brown (only decent in NE), Mike Onwenu (I'd rather have him play G) and ... Becton.

You need to keep Rodgers upright next year, so unless you somehow end up with pick No. 3 (in which case you have to take Marvin Harrison Jr) you draft OT RD 1, and then double-dip in Rd 3. And you need someone who can step in and play week 1, so unless someone is coming to you with a massive haul - not "we picked up an extra body" but "look, they offered us two 1s and a 2, we had to take it" - you can't trade down and away from an elite OT.

[Rich Thornburgh]

6 hours ago, Bugg said:

Bott Adams (31 next season) and Bakhtiari (33) are due huge ass roster bonuses from their current teams on or about St. Patrick's day. Both coming off major season-ending injuries. Since the de facto GM Aaron Rodgers wants his boys, coming off this disaster, expect these 2 are givens.

[Rich Thornburgh]

5 hours ago, rangerous said:

Good points about the trade scenarios.  One thing I wonder is how the personnel would fit if they went into a 3-4 base alignment (like if saleh is launched).  They’d need one of those huge guys at nose but could just and or Macdonald move to the old spots?

QW would play Nose

[Rich Thornburgh]

3 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

It's not even a question. Look at this year's FA OL class - it's a wasteland. The center list is actually pretty decent at the top - Williams, James, & Cushenberry, and the Jets may make a run at Williams given the ability to take him from a division rival and also the flexibility of having both him and Tippmann capable of playing OG. But OG and OT are disasters. Dotson and Hunt are the only candidates at OG (third ranked OG FA is 34 year old Kevin Zeitler), and at OT it's Tyron Smith (great but never healthy), Trent Brown (only decent in NE), Mike Onwenu (I'd rather have him play G) and ... Becton.

You need to keep Rodgers upright next year, so unless you somehow end up with pick No. 3 (in which case you have to take Marvin Harrison Jr) you draft OT RD 1, and then double-dip in Rd 3. And you need someone who can step in and play week 1, so unless someone is coming to you with a massive haul - not "we picked up an extra body" but "look, they offered us two 1s and a 2, we had to take it" - you can't trade down and away from an elite OT.

We don’t need to sign a young Orlando Pace in free agency.  We just need solid players who can start and won’t get injured after 2 plays.  Trent Brown and Kevin Zeitler please

[Larz]

1) I will not learn my lesson about getting excited about the offseason 

2) I will not learn my lesson about eating late at night 

[Raideraholic]

12 hours ago, Bugg said:

BothAdams (31 next season) and Bakhtiari (33) are due huge ass roster bonuses from their current teams on or about St. Patrick's day. Both coming off major season-ending injuries. Since the de facto GM Aaron Rodgers wants his boys, coming off this disaster, expect these 2 are givens.

Devante Adams isn’t coming off of season ending injury .  ( He still active) They finally started to play Tre Tucker ( Tyreek hill lite- needs to come out his break little cleaner ) next to Devante Adams. Tre Tucker is getting single coverage,  and he destroying that . ( really opening up the offense) They finally started to look Te M Mayer way - whose really been coming on.  Raider have as much weapons as anyone on offense .       Just best option is a rookie qb whose learning on the job. 

[Bobby816]

I say it’s safe to say we don’t draft CB or DE in round 1 this year. Those are my 2 predictions 😉 

[Ron Rico]

[BornJetsFan1983]

14 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

You had me with the trade-back (depending on the board when we pick), until you went with the idea of starting 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round rookies on the line. That's how a team retools its line if it's tanking for a run the following season. The "bam" will be the slamming shut of the season as Rodgers again goes on IR in week 1.

They need to bring in two veteran starting lineman because Becton is undeserving of an extension and based on 2023 they can't put a serious face on even penciling in Warren or Mitchell as the other starter heading into the draft, and if they do they're arguably in no position to trade down even if they badly reach for the next-best tackle prospect by 8-10 slots.

My expectation is overpaying badly for a meh starting tackle with at least 2 guaranteed seasons, bringing back Tomlinson by dropping his salary by $5-6MM and guaranteeing it, re-signing Brown for a lot less than $9MM (ideally to back up, if he still wants to play in that role), and penciling in the best among Brown-Warren-Mitchell and another camp fodder/backup name at one tackle slot as they head into the draft, missing out on the best tackle prospects, and refusing to reach for the next-best so we end up with the 5th best tackle prospect at #20 who'll get his stuff pushed in regularly as a rookie, starting the season opposite the overpaid bookend who'll be injured by Sept 15th.

IOW I expect stupidity and failure: two things the Jets actually do well.

Haha well I do think we move and pick a starting lineman with a couple early picks.

We def will pay the o line tax on who ever we get but the fant type guy exist and will do alot to help if healthy