dbatesman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 9 minutes ago, Paradis said: If you were trying to illustrate some kind empirical support for ignoring the position early, it failed IMO. The only thing this shows me is: Don't be impatient in developing your TE The unsuccessful ones were athletic fools good, and the tape supported that. Don't ignore it. ”Draft slugs, and be cool with the fact that they probably won’t produce until they’re on another team” is pretty underwhelming 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 48 minutes ago, T0mShane said: Agree with you on *most* of this, but I think the difference between, say, Sewell and Max Mitchell is wide enough to justify burning the tenth pick on a Sewell-ish prospect. It gets debatable if there’s a true WR1 at ten, though, because WR1’s are legitimately game-defining players. If Bowers is elite-elite, his production (85/1,100, 8?) would equal that of, like, the 25th best wide receiver in the sport. True but I dont think there is a Sewell in this draft, who ironically fell because of a 3 QB run, TE and WR run. Which is another factor in in this particular situation. The T prospects this year are every year type dudes IMO and not sure there is a WR worthy of top 10 after MHJ, maybe Nabers? idk. Whereas, not sure we've seen a Bowers like TE prospect or when we will again. And the production you stated is basically G.Wilson w/ more TD's, which is so much help for this offense if that's coming for someone that you're assumingly moving all around the LOS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T0mShane Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 22 minutes ago, derp said: I think the production you described is pretty much in line with like Devonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle - and nobody’s complaining about those guys getting drafted in the top ten. Legit high end #2 production is fine around ten. Is it, though? You spend top ten picks on those guys and immediately have to turn around and trade a haul for players who are significantly better at those positions and give them top of market contracts that likely preclude you from re-signing Waddle and Smith? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derp Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 8 minutes ago, T0mShane said: Is it, though? You spend top ten picks on those guys and immediately have to turn around and trade a haul for players who are significantly better at those positions and give them top of market contracts that likely preclude you from re-signing Waddle and Smith? Depends how good your team is during that window, I guess. I think even a team with a franchise QB wants two high end passing game options and a team without one needs two. Would suspect even if Philly and Miami knew they’d have Brown and Hill respectively in place they’d still take Smith and Waddle knowing how their careers have played out. Not a top ten pick but I’m sure the Bengals have no regrets about having Tee Higgins along with Chase too. The high end #2 has a lot of value. I don’t think it’s what teams are shooting for but it’s not something to turn your nose at either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T0mShane Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 5 minutes ago, derp said: Depends how good your team is during that window, I guess. I think even a team with a franchise QB wants two high end passing game options and a team without one needs two. Would suspect even if Philly and Miami knew they’d have Brown and Hill respectively in place they’d still take Smith and Waddle knowing how their careers have played out. Not a top ten pick but I’m sure the Bengals have no regrets about having Tee Higgins along with Chase too. The high end #2 has a lot of value. I don’t think it’s what teams are shooting for but it’s not something to turn your nose at either. But even in the Bengals scenario, they didn’t get the chip and now they’re losing Tee Higgins to free agency, and I think Higgins is probably better than both Waddle and Smith. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derp Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, T0mShane said: But even in the Bengals scenario, they didn’t get the chip and now they’re losing Tee Higgins to free agency, and I think Higgins is probably better than both Waddle and Smith. I think too results oriented over process oriented, they had a legitimate crack at a Super Bowl with that roster during his rookie contract, they were really close, and I’m not so sure they would’ve without him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SickJetFan Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I think combine can changes things in a literal instant with the 3 WRs and 1 TE, maybe 1 or 2 CB, 1 edge, and not so much for OL. I think both TN and Giants had worse OL than the Jets if you can believe that and Chargers definitely need a RT (they could get in round 2 or later). I think Jeremiah mock is just a favor to agents to get their players name out there and really nothing to do with football as for the title of this thread - whether you think he sh be the pick or not you will be hanging on every stride he makes in that combine in the 40. If you think he is hall of famer you will "cant wait for the i told you so" if he runs a decent 40 and coming up with other reasons why he is still hall of famer if he runs a avg 40 or less desirable 40. If you think he is a good te but not worth the 10th pick you will act accordingly but wont change your mind unless he really bombs or runs something ridiculous. Bottom line I think the only way he changes peoples mind in the diff camps is if he runs something ridiculous otherwise it will be another argument that will take a long time to see who was right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lupz27 Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 10 hours ago, JustInFudge said: My man, you're just saying things at this point and not making a coherent point. I cant follow these random stream of consciousness ramblings that are seemingly coming out of nowhere. You would never, ever, draft a TE in top 10. So this conversation is literally, pointless because you're unwilling to be objective. It's all good. You're heavy on your principles and I dig it, I just think all your justifications for you not being objective about the topic are bogus. Yes but you keep coming back at me like your right and can prove me wrong and change my mind. Neither is possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lupz27 Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 7 hours ago, Paradis said: You've become JN's own commensurate Vanilla Ice "7 years ago, i came out with Ice Ice Baby, now if you'd listen to the song, you'd know..." And your the never had a hit guy so 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lupz27 Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 12 hours ago, JustInFudge said: It's kind of an impossible question to answer and it's hard to quantify value simply based on stats. For example; if the Jets bring in Adams and suddenly, Rodgers has Wilson and Adams to feed the ball to...in that scenario we know he'll target them in bulk. So say that happened and Bowers put up a Conklin like season but instead of 0 TD's and 30% 1st down conversion, he has 5 TD's and 60%. That could be the difference in 7-14 pts game even though he's not blowing up the stat sheet. Or say because he's a do it all TE, the protection is better, the run game is better, etc. etc. etc. These things are hard to quantify. Or another way to look at it is, G. Wilson has good numbers but also made a lot of mistakes this year and the offense continues to sucks balls, was he worth a top 10 pick? Or another way, Bowers is a chess piece, do it all. How much does his ability to do anything and score from anywhere at the TE position, impact how you defend the Jets? How much does a chess piece like him, change how you defend one of the easiest teams in the NFL to defend? How much does he makes life easier on everyone else? Bottom line, he's rare weapon and for a team that lacks weapons, idk, seems like the impact could be huge. Look at the teams left in the playoffs, all of them have a dynamic TE. Kelce, Kittle, LaPorta, Likely/Andrews, Kincaid/Knox, Shultz Musgrave/Kraft. Seems like a pretty common theme that the best offenses, have a dynamic play maker at TE. If my aunt had balls she would be my uncle. Thats what your argument here is seriously. What if this, what if that. STOP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lupz27 Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 9 hours ago, AFJF said: Deep OT class. You can take Bowers at 10 and trade to add another pick in round 1/2 and take an OT with that pick. Add backwards bro. How many TE’s drafted later worked out as HOFers? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lupz27 Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 4 hours ago, dbatesman said: I could ask you the same thing. Here are all the TEs drafted in the first round in the last two decades. How many of these transformed their team’s offense? How many even got a second contract from their team? Kyle Pitts, Falcons T.J. Hockenson, Lions Noah Fant, Broncos Hayden Hurst, Ravens O.J. Howard, Buccaneers Evan Engram, Giants David Njoku, Browns Eric Ebron, Lions Tyler Eifert, Bengals Jermaine Gresham, Bengals Brandon Pettigrew, Lions Dustin Keller, Jets Greg Olsen, Bears Vernon Davis, 49ers Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars Heath Miller, Steelers Kellen Winslow II, Browns Ben Watson, Patriots Someone gets it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lupz27 Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 I’m out on this. Until Bowers is universally considered way over drafted! dueces Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paradis Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, Lupz27 said: And your the never had a hit guy so 😂 i have a fall catalogue of Ws . You pointed at two 1st round consensus picks and said "mine" like you were Dwight Shrute Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 8 hours ago, Lupz27 said: If my aunt had balls she would be my uncle. Thats what your argument here is seriously. What if this, what if that. STOP I answered a question from another poster. You should get some fresh air, not sure why you’re so angry about a conversation. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 8 hours ago, Lupz27 said: I’m out on this. Until Bowers is universally considered way over drafted! dueces 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 13 hours ago, dbatesman said: I could ask you the same thing. Here are all the TEs drafted in the first round in the last two decades. How many of these transformed their team’s offense? How many even got a second contract from their team? Kyle Pitts, Falcons T.J. Hockenson, Lions Noah Fant, Broncos Hayden Hurst, Ravens O.J. Howard, Buccaneers Evan Engram, Giants David Njoku, Browns Eric Ebron, Lions Tyler Eifert, Bengals Jermaine Gresham, Bengals Brandon Pettigrew, Lions Dustin Keller, Jets Greg Olsen, Bears Vernon Davis, 49ers Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars Heath Miller, Steelers Kellen Winslow II, Browns Ben Watson, Patriots I think the challenge w/ looking at the success of first round TE's in this fashion is that it's way too simplistic to draw any meaningful conclusions. First off, it's such a small sample size and so often a position where only 1 player from that position is taken. So you dont have the luxury of saying, well, Jameson Williamson was a bust but Garrett Wilson was not and Drake London has been borderline busty, but Chris Olave has not, you cant play that game w/ TE's. And the position is very situational, per scheme, per team, per situation. It's way more nuanced then your typical pick. Perfect example is Marcedes Lewis, I dont think the Jags thought they were drafting the next dynamic pass catcher to catch all the balls from David Garrard. Rather, they took a 3 down player, who doesnt come off the field and blocks like a road grading Tackle for the 1-2 punch of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones Drew and as a result, the Jags were #3 in rushing yards and #2 in rushing TD's. Or another, Greg Olsen. Yes, short lived career w/ the team that drafted him, the Bears but he was there leading receiver every year (I think Forte topped him once by a few) and they had a decent run w/ him as their go to guy. Won the division, a playoff game, etc. all w/ double agent, Jay Cutler as his QB. OJ Howard is probably the biggest bust on the list and there isnt much to defend on this one but even in this situation, drafted by one regime w/ a team that heavily utilized the TE and running game. That coaching staff was then fired and replaced by a a staff that emphasized vertical/down field passing attack w/ a HC that had a tag line of "if you dont risk it, not biscuit". Evan Engram drafted by one regime, that regime turned over the very next season, and then turned over again in his contract year. He had the corpse of Eli Manning and the sh*tty Geno Smith throwing to him until it was rookie, Daniel Jones. Last example, Brandon Pettigrew. Drafted by the Lions w/ Stafford. Stafford, proceed to have 3 straight years of missing numerous games and was catching passes from Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton. First full season of Stafford, he was second on the team in receptions, only a dozen behind Megatron, the Lions won 10 games and had the 4th best offense in the league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFJF Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 17 hours ago, Lupz27 said: Add backwards bro. How many TE’s drafted later worked out as HOFers? Other than absolutely nothing, what do any of those players have to do with this player? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFJF Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 On 1/20/2024 at 8:31 PM, derp said: If Bowers isn’t the best tight end in the NFL in 2-3 years would that be a disappointment in your opinion? I'd be surprised. Any level of disappointment would be based on how good he was. If he's not 1 or 2 but he's 5 or 6 I could live with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet_Engine1 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 On 1/20/2024 at 10:40 PM, Lupz27 said: I’m out on this. Until Bowers is universally considered way over drafted! dueces Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T0mShane Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Brock Bowers standing next to Gronk is uh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 46 minutes ago, T0mShane said: Brock Bowers standing next to Gronk is uh Weak, you can put anyone up against Gronk and he dwarfs them, lol, I remember when he shook Kelce's hand after the SB and he looked like a monster in comparison. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T0mShane Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, JustInFudge said: Weak, you can put anyone up against Gronk and he dwarfs them, lol, I remember when he shook Kelce's hand after the SB and he looked like a monster in comparison. He looks like a doughy 36 year old trying to sell Gronk on the new hybrid Elantra 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barton Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 That is a legit knock on bowers. He’s borderline a massive a WR right now. Also not the tallest guy for a tight end. He’s not gonna overwhelm guys with his height/frame/weight combo like Gronk or even Kelce. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thai Jet Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 1/12/2024 at 1:46 PM, T0mShane said: Are we ignoring the fact that Bowers has been beaten to sh*t in the SEC and already has a pretty thick injury history? Apparently yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbatesman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 10 hours ago, T0mShane said: Brock Bowers standing next to Gronk is uh He looks like he has Marfan syndrome Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barry McCockinner Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 7 hours ago, T0mShane said: He looks like a doughy 36 year old trying to sell Gronk on the new hybrid Elantra looks like he's packing though 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawn306 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 1/10/2024 at 4:28 PM, Lupz27 said: Kyle Pitts was supposed to be that guy, he isn’t and NO TE drafted high was ever worth it (Top 15). WR’s are 1000000000x more valuable and their are 3 studs minimum. ENOUGH WITH THE BROCK BOWERS TALK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WR’s are a dime a dozen. Take the tackle and be happy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OilfieldJet Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 1/20/2024 at 5:04 PM, dbatesman said: I could ask you the same thing. Here are all the TEs drafted in the first round in the last two decades. How many of these transformed their team’s offense? How many even got a second contract from their team? Kyle Pitts, Falcons T.J. Hockenson, Lions Noah Fant, Broncos Hayden Hurst, Ravens O.J. Howard, Buccaneers Evan Engram, Giants David Njoku, Browns Eric Ebron, Lions Tyler Eifert, Bengals Jermaine Gresham, Bengals Brandon Pettigrew, Lions Dustin Keller, Jets Greg Olsen, Bears Vernon Davis, 49ers Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars Heath Miller, Steelers Kellen Winslow II, Browns Ben Watson, Patriots Some were excellent, generally the ones with quality QBs. No from me on Bowers at 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 19 hours ago, T0mShane said: He looks like a doughy 36 year old trying to sell Gronk on the new hybrid Elantra Doughy? Do you not see those crazy quad muscles? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 11 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said: looks like he's packing though Been saying for months now...HUGE (pun intended) selling point here!!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larz Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 This seems to be the best OT draft in years. I want 2 of them 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonkertons Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Bowers at 10 would be my preference at this point(assuming we fill our OT holes in UFA), barring something like Alt or Nabers falling. That said though if none of the big tackles fall and Bowers does, but we have no intention of taking him, I'd expect you'll find some teams willing to move up for him. Mainly Cincinnati at 18. According to the trade charts, 18 + 49 for 10 is pretty close in value. I'd imagine you could drop to 18 and still get one of the top RTs - maybe Fuaga drops, but worst case you'll probably have your choice between Latham, Mims, Guyton - then you can probably still either grab a solid WR in the 2nd or a DT who can step right in to the starting lineup. That would be the only way I'd look to move down. Otherwise just take whatever top talent is there at 10. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerfish Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Sam LaPorta rookie: 86 catches, 890 yards, 10 tds LaPorta is not close to Bowers as an offensive prospect. If a team drafts him and and has a solid plan on how to use him and the QB is all in on this usage Bowers will be a big impact player. If he gets drafted and the oc thinks he is just a TE and the QB does not go out of his way to be happy about a weapon TE/HB he will not be worth the pick. Guys like Kelce, Kittle, Laporta make big impacts because they are great players AND the team has a plan for them. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T0mShane Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/12/2024 at 7:16 PM, Beerfish said: LaPorta is not close to Bowers as an offensive prospect. Crazy talk. This is LaPorta: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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