My totally pulled out of my butt odds for who the Jets draft at #10

[DoubleDown]

12 minutes ago, Maynard13 said:

So a tackle that protects Rodgers doesn’t bolster the offense? 🧐 How you guys think Smith and Moses are playing every game is beyond me.

Two 33 year old one year rentals at OT.  One of which can't stay on the field, has numerous major injuries on his resume, and hasn't played a full season in almost a decade.

What could possibly go wrong?

[rayzor]

1 hour ago, bitonti said:

I had to look it up Conklin was te 16 last year 

You're right he's not great, durable and good enough but he's also not a reason to pass on bowers who has hof scout report 

I guess IF Kittle is his comp, as some have said, do you pass on Kittle then?

[Trotter]

2 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I'm on team Jared Verse!   

Im kinda with you just to witness the sh_tshow this place will be

[TuscanyTile2]

8 minutes ago, DoubleDown said:

Not to mention, three young developing players at TE behind him.

Bowers is a luxury pick.  Someone to take a swing on when blue chips at premium positions are off the board near the bottom of the first.

I would hate the pick.  The Jets need WR and OT.  It would be a crime to take a TE in that spot with their situation.

[Trotter]

2 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I'm on team Jared Verse!   

@83Kelly2Allen18 in another thread you mentioned how mature Jets fans are and how they respect each other.

Let this be the pick and stick around - you will see a whole different level of love.

[bitonti]

11 minutes ago, DoubleDown said:

I would hate the pick.  The Jets need WR and OT.  It would be a crime to take a TE in that spot with their situation.

This is the crux of the issue

the Jets front office aren't very smart

Bowers at 10 isn't what I want to happen. But it's what's probably going to happen 

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

1 hour ago, Maynard13 said:

Don’t agree. That’s totally irrelevant. Smith and Moses are both susceptible to injury which makes taking a tackle at 10 imperative. In addition, Smith may only play one more year and has missed numerous games over the last few seasons. He can’t be counted on the full season. What’s the greater need? WR or tackle? Both. But, getting a blue chip tackle to fill in and take over next year outweighs getting a WR like Odunze. 

Not to mention AVT trying come back from a midseason Achilles rip.

It's a potential house of cards that could derail even a WR trio of Jerry Rice, John Taylor and Tim Brown.

Any WR that is drafted this year is likely going to be #3 or #4 at best in the pecking order meaning maybe 50 to 80 targets max.

GW will soak up at least 150+ targets.  You've got to feed MW, Breece, and Conk too.  Ruckert should also have his opportunities.

Aaron loves to throw it to his RBs out of the backfield.

If you play fantasy football, Breece should catch at least 50+ passes after catching 76 last year.

Obviously, would love to add a blue chip WR, but if you're thinking along the lines of "you're only as strong as your weakest link", the OL has to be the chief concern.

 

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

1 hour ago, Paradis said:

Don't think Alt is a lock to be gone anymore than the other names you've got up there. He's not necessarily OT1 for everyone. 

Saw someone here comp him to Brick.

I'm no OL expert, but I think Brick had better footwork, better flexibility / knee bend, and a more powerful base.

[Claymation]

1 hour ago, Maynard13 said:

So a tackle that protects Rodgers doesn’t bolster the offense? 🧐 How you guys think Smith and Moses are playing every game is beyond me. Get a tackle with the 1st rounder: Alt, Latham, Fashanu, Fuaga, Fantanu, Mims and be done with it. Ideally and realistically, no chance getting Alt. Fuaga is a RT. Pass. Latham has Becton written all over him. Pass. I trade back and take Mims, Fashanau or Fantanu. 

If they view Moses as a starter, I can see them looking at a swing tackle in FA or later in the draft.

[Maynard13]

3 minutes ago, Claymation said:

If they view Moses as a starter, I can see them looking at a swing tackle in FA or later in the draft.

It doesnt matter how they view him. Both Smith and Moses are older vets and injury concerns. JD has to get a blue chip LT NOW.  Period.  It serves a twofold purpsoe: It helps solidifythe OL and prepare the prospect to take over next year.  

[Claymation]

3 minutes ago, Maynard13 said:

It doesnt matter how they view him. Both Smith and Moses are older vets and injury concerns. JD has to get a blue chip LT NOW.  Period.  It serves a twofold purpsoe: It helps solidifythe OL and prepare the prospect to take over next year.  

There is no guarantee that OT will be a blue chip prospect.

[Sperm Edwards]

4 hours ago, Sarge4Tide said:

Just made up out of nowhere for discussion purposes only - please no wagering

 

Odds		Player	Comment
3	-1	Brock Bowers TE Georgia	Will probably be there and fills a need - makes sense
5	-1	Rome Odunze WR Washington	Might be gone, but if he's there, be hard to pass up
11	-1	Taliese Fuaga OT Oregon State	If all the WRs, Alt, and Bowers are gone?
14	-1	Troy Fautanau OT Washington	" "
16	-1	Olumuyiwa Fashanu OT Penn State	" "
18	-1	Amarius Mims OT Georgia	" "
19	-1	Brian Thomas WR LSU	Late riser who some have mocked to the Jets
20	-1	Joe Alt OT Notre Dame	Almost certainly will be gone
24	-1	JJ McCarthy QB Michigan	IF he slips to #10, who knows? Unlikely, of course
27	-1	Jared Verse Edge Florida State	IF the 1st 9 picks are offense and he's sitting there...?

Those odds seem pretty steep. Like I think there's better than a mere 9% chance at any of the OTs individually, but what do I know, and nitpicking someone else's effort is a lot easier than doing it oneself.

Except Jared Verse -- With JJII, Kinlaw, McDonald, probably still JFM already on board, and after taking an edge in round 1 of each of the last 2 drafts, I think the odds of drafting edge at #10 aren't steep enough. I'm not sure if you added another digit in front to make that 127-1 (or 827-1) it's still steep enough.

If he took an edge rusher at #10, Woody might fire Douglas before the Jets' second pick & he'd be right to do it. 

[Maynard13]

5 minutes ago, Claymation said:

There is no guarantee that OT will be a blue chip prospect.

Blue chip - there are numerous ones in round one. Numerous.  And that argument that there is no guarantee holds true for ANYONE you take.

[Maynard13]

1 hour ago, jamesr said:

If you look forward to next year, and what potential holes we will be looking to fill, we have LT, RT, WR high on that list. All three of our FA signings at these positions are currently one year stop gaps, all with injury concerns.

Douglas picked a pass rusher last year because he saw it as a need this year (he knew Huff would be gone). I expect Round 1 will be OT or WR for this reason specifically. If whoever we pick happens to outperform the incumbent then that is a bonus and they can see the field sooner. But there won't be a rush to throw a rookie into a starter role if they're not as good as / better than the vet ahead of them. WR is more rotational, giving more opportunity for a guy to get some snaps without upsetting chemistry; with OL you're mainly looking at injury cover or jumbo sets to get the guy out there initially.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

OT is more of a learning curve than WR.  This is why it would be a great idea to get one NOW to be mentored by Smith and Moses and slide in next year full time. 

[Claymation]

2 minutes ago, Maynard13 said:

Blue chip - there are numerous ones in round one. Numerous.  And that argument that there is no guarantee holds true for ANYONE you take.

Exactly. So you agree, BPA.

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

What are your odds on Quinyon Mitchell 🤣

Saleh looking for a CB2 to add to the pipeline to replace DJR, who hasn't been extended yet

[HighPitch]

2 hours ago, bitonti said:

I feel like it's closer to 50/50 bowers or lineman 

Not what I want (FUAGA) but what shadow gm Aaron Rodgers wants 

How does bowers seem likely when other posts have noted that the jets never met with bowers ?

 

It gonna be an OL guy as it should be if they stay at 10 unless someone falls hard

[bitonti]

42 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

How does bowers seem likely when other posts have noted that the jets never met with bowers ?

The te coach Ron Middleton helped run his pro day workout 

I think he's visiting Florham Park this week actually 

They've met him 

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

42 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

How does bowers seem likely when other posts have noted that the jets never met with bowers ?

 

It gonna be an OL guy as it should be if they stay at 10 unless someone falls hard

Bowers is literally in the Jets building today lol

[Maynard13]

2 minutes ago, Claymation said:

Exactly. So you agree, BPA.

No I dont.  I want to trade back and get a 2nd rounder. The tackles that I'd be looking at: Fashanau, Fantanu, Mims are the ones I'd target. Fashanua probably goes in top 10.  Mims and Fantanau can be had in mid teens and both can play either Rt or LT.  I'd prefer Mims since he is an absolute freak. Raw but his upside is ridiculous. 

[HighPitch]

Wow

[rangerous]

5 hours ago, Sarge4Tide said:

Just made up out of nowhere for discussion purposes only - please no wagering

 

Odds		Player	Comment
3	-1	Brock Bowers TE Georgia	Will probably be there and fills a need - makes sense
5	-1	Rome Odunze WR Washington	Might be gone, but if he's there, be hard to pass up
11	-1	Taliese Fuaga OT Oregon State	If all the WRs, Alt, and Bowers are gone?
14	-1	Troy Fautanau OT Washington	" "
16	-1	Olumuyiwa Fashanu OT Penn State	" "
18	-1	Amarius Mims OT Georgia	" "
19	-1	Brian Thomas WR LSU	Late riser who some have mocked to the Jets
20	-1	Joe Alt OT Notre Dame	Almost certainly will be gone
24	-1	JJ McCarthy QB Michigan	IF he slips to #10, who knows? Unlikely, of course
27	-1	Jared Verse Edge Florida State	IF the 1st 9 picks are offense and he's sitting there...?

No Latham?  He may be the best of the bunch.

[Claymation]

40 minutes ago, Maynard13 said:

No I dont.  I want to trade back and get a 2nd rounder. The tackles that I'd be looking at: Fashanau, Fantanu, Mims are the ones I'd target. Fashanua probably goes in top 10.  Mims and Fantanau can be had in mid teens and both can play either Rt or LT.  I'd prefer Mims since he is an absolute freak. Raw but his upside is ridiculous. 

Someone would have to come up for something, what are they coming up for?

 

[Claymation]

FYI, Rich Eisen is pounding the table for Bowers.

[Maynard13]

2 hours ago, Claymation said:

Someone would have to come up for something, what are they coming up for?

 

Sorry I'm not Houdini

[Dcat]

8 hours ago, Sarge4Tide said:

Just made up out of nowhere for discussion purposes only - please no wagering

 

Odds		Player	Comment
24	-1	JJ McCarthy QB Michigan	IF he slips to #10, who knows? Unlikely, of course
27	-1	Jared Verse Edge Florida State	IF the 1st 9 picks are offense and he's sitting there...?

Not funny

[Bowles Movement]

My two cents.

The Jets have signed injury prone 1 yr starters to go for it this year at both tackle positions and at WR.  There is a good chance that all 3 are gone next year.  They need to draft players to plan for that eventuality and  to help with this year’s playoff push.  Who ever they draft is likely to play some at Wr 3 or 2 depending on Williams recovery, or if either tackle is injured.  
 

If both potential picks are rated being equal, I’d favor WR as I think that a WR would play more without an injury to starter.  I think a drafted first WR would be a bigger upgrade over Lazard, than a drafted tackle would improve our depth over Carter Warren.   But if the tackle is clearly the better prospect, then I’d go tackle.

[Sarge4Tide]

3 hours ago, rangerous said:

No Latham?  He may be the best of the bunch.

Probably should have just assigned a number to "best available offensive tackle"

[Claymation]

2 hours ago, Maynard13 said:

Sorry I'm not Houdini

Your not an escape artist?

[Jetkwondo]

9 hours ago, Smashmouth said:

and I will punch you both in the face and then punch myself if we make that pick

Better make that Punches for everyone !

 

[Jethead]

OL - 60%

WR1- 25%

Field - 15%

 

[Smashmouth]

1 hour ago, Jetkwondo said:

Better make that Punches for everyone !

 

Everyone it is

 

[Maynard13]

8 hours ago, Claymation said:

Your not an escape artist?

Depends on the situation. 

[Hael]

Everyone knows we are a win now team.  But of all of these guys, who is the one that helps the most in that purpose. 

Bowers is a TE, as someone mentioned they rarely contribute year 1 outside of a few plays and Conklin will probably be better for the year.   

Odunze is also RAW.  You throw up a few 50/50 balls that he will make, but you aren’t looking at more than 500 yrds/game.  It takes time to learn route running.  I do think he is a stud though.

The only WR that instantly contributes at near all star lvl IMO, is Marvin Harrison JR, but we wont get him.

So that leaves OL.  Do any of the OL really start on this team (outside of Alt, who again we wont get)?   Probably not.

Which goes back to the really unsexy pick… Jared Verse.  He is probably the best overall player in the draft outside of Marvin Harrison, Caleb and Alt.  He does instantly contribute in Saleh’s system.  We would also, surely, have the best defense in the NFL….

[Ulrich]

23 hours ago, bitonti said:

Douglas isn't in charge anymore Aaron Rodgers is 

Right because last year Rodgers drafted WMD round 1 & zero offensive skill players until Abanikanda round 5