Jetsfan80 Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Good thread.... QBR and most advanced stats are ridiculous. The most important part of a football game is the 4th quarter that's where players should be judged by how clutch they perform when the game is on the line because most NFL games are close and can easily be decided in the 4th quarter It goes the other direction though. If you don't do your job quarters 1-3 the 4th quarter no longer matters. Sanchez got billed as a "comeback QB" here by many because of late wins against Houston, Cleveland and Detroit in 2010. However, his poor play was a big reason we needed to have comebacks in the first place, and when the high level of talent around him went away, his play in Q1-Q3 exposed him in subsequent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyjunc Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 It goes the other direction though. If you don't do your job quarters 1-3 the 4th quarter no longer matters. Sanchez got billed as a "comeback QB" here by many because of late wins against Houston, Cleveland and Detroit in 2010. However, his poor play was a big reason we needed to have comebacks in the first place, and when the high level of talent around him went away, his play in Q1-Q3 exposed him in subsequent years. sometimes that is true about qtrs. 1-3 but do yourself a favor and go back and look at those specific games you mentioned and tell me how mark held back the team early? especially that Cle game where we held the ball all game and our K missed a ton of kicks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 The reason advanced stats are important is so that it can either confirm things you see with your eyes or point out things that are missed. People can't avoid being subjective when watching QB's play. People also use numbers subjectively too. So you need both. The best QB's will pass both the eye and numbers tests the overwhelming majority of the time, and bad QB's will fail on both time and again. It's the group in the middle that requires the most scrutiny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Crusher Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 How short are we talking? Rookie deals are 4 years in length. Teams like the Dolphins are finding out the hard way what happens when you don't have a real QB but pay big QB money to one anyways. Just like we did when we paid Sanchez. If you play a rookie right away you are rolling the dice. Sometimes you get Russel Wilson and sometimes you get Mark Sanchez. Best thing to do is let the young QB sit and evaluate him over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Crusher Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 so then judging by playoff wins Peyton Manning sucks I call it PMS Yeah. So Im not judging by that. I said simply wins. not playoff wins, not Superbowl wins just wins over ten year period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 If you play a rookie right away you are rolling the dice. Sometimes you get Russel Wilson and sometimes you get Mark Sanchez. Best thing to do is let the young QB sit and evaluate him over time. Evaluate how though? You said wins and losses over a large sample size are the best way to do that, but if he sits for the first year on a 4-year deal, what do you use to determine if he's going to be a franchise guy? I think you see teams being less and less patient with rookie QB's because they need to be able to see what he can do. Most GM's and coaches know that they may well only have 2-3 years to turn bad teams around before they might get fired, and if 1 of those years is spent sitting that rookie QB, their window may well close even faster. Rodgers is the best example of a team successfully waiting on a QB. But not every team has the luxury of a HOF QB like Favre and not every GM/HC has that long of a leash to wait on a young QB. It's why you already had some people here calling for giving Petty a shot the minute Fitzpatrick had a bad day. Eventually, for most franchises who are in the position where they need to draft a QB, the QB play gets so bad the rookie ends up thrust into the starting role by necessity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyjunc Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 If you play a rookie right away you are rolling the dice. Sometimes you get Russel Wilson and sometimes you get Mark Sanchez. Best thing to do is let the young QB sit and evaluate him over time. both good rookie QBs, mark didn't become bad until he had the worst talent in the league around him in 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Brown Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 I agree. Wilson gets criticized for the team around him yet there are plenty of QB's that have squandered opportunities when the ball was ultimately in their hands with great talent around them. Just go back to those early Baltimore Raven years for any proof of that. Hence why it was insane that the Jets let the skilled positions deteriorate around the QB position through say 2011 to 2014.... When you do stuff like that you get crappy QB play but still have doubts. Whereas with say Stafford if you get crappy QB play the odds go very high in favor of it being crappy QB play and knowing that it may be time for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWhofans Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 QBR takes into account mobility (running yards), number of times sacked, not only INTs but if they lead to opponent points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyjunc Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 QBR takes into account mobility (running yards), number of times sacked, not only INTs but if they lead to opponent points. it is subjective though. sometimes they seem to get it right, other times you are left scratching your head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 ESPN is so exotic! I feel that I should be wearing a grass skirt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Integrity28 Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Good thread.... QBR and most advanced stats are ridiculous. The most important part of a football game is the 4th quarter that's where players should be judged by how clutch they perform when the game is on the line because most NFL games are close and can easily be decided in the 4th quarter By most 4th quarters Tom Brady is coasting with a 20 point lead... does that mean he sucks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Integrity28 Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 ESPN is so exotic! I feel that I should be wearing a grass skirt I've always pictured you in one, so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Crusher Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Evaluate how though? You said wins and losses over a large sample size are the best way to do that, but if he sits for the first year on a 4-year deal, what do you use to determine if he's going to be a franchise guy? I think you see teams being less and less patient with rookie QB's because they need to be able to see what he can do. Most GM's and coaches know that they may well only have 2-3 years to turn bad teams around before they might get fired, and if 1 of those years is spent sitting that rookie QB, their window may well close even faster. Rodgers is the best example of a team successfully waiting on a QB. But not every team has the luxury of a HOF QB like Favre and not every GM/HC has that long of a leash to wait on a young QB. It's why you already had some people here calling for giving Petty a shot the minute Fitzpatrick had a bad day. Eventually, for most franchises who are in the position where they need to draft a QB, the QB play gets so bad the rookie ends up thrust into the starting role by necessity. Get a Jag QB like Fitzpatrick and sit the kid for at least a year. You get to look at him for a couple pre season and then take your best guess. Wait till the last minute to pay a QB. See how much he wins first. Never reward mediocre play with a big contract because you want a franchise QB. Never listen to fans on a message board because they are fans on a message board. F those guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbatesman Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 It's not really hard to know if a guy is a good quarterback or not. Any rating system for a quarterback is kind of silly. Do they pass the eyeball test? how is his accuracy? Does he read defenses? Did he make smart decisions? What are his physical skills? And yeah, does he win games? How square is his jaw? Where were his parents raised? Does he drink diet soda? Is he a mountains person or a beach person? What was his college major? How did he feel about season 2 of True Detective? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Crusher Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 How square is his jaw? Where were his parents raised? Does he drink diet soda? Is he a mountains person or a beach person? What was his college major? How did he feel about season 2 of True Detective? "All he does is win." All you need to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villain The Foe Posted October 13, 2015 Author Share Posted October 13, 2015 How square is his jaw? Where were his parents raised? Does he drink diet soda? Is he a mountains person or a beach person? What was his college major? How did he feel about season 2 of True Detective? Did anyone even watch the entirety of that season? I stopped at like episode 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Get a Jag QB like Fitzpatrick and sit the kid for at least a year. You get to look at him for a couple pre season and then take your best guess. Wait till the last minute to pay a QB. See how much he wins first. Never reward mediocre play with a big contract because you want a franchise QB. Never listen to fans on a message board because they are fans on a message board. F those guys. I agree with you. Teams should be waiting until their QB's hit their contract year to double down on them. But to date have any of them done that? Have any waited until the brink of free agency to extend their QB's deal? Of course not. Because its the most important position on the field, most of these teams invested early draft picks on them, and risking them hitting free agency is an admission they whiffed on the pick. And you CANNOT whiff on a QB early in the 1st round and keep your job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larz Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 the LQBR Larz QB Rating % of redzone drives that end in a TD % of drives that end in 3 and out % of drives that begin within 4 minutes of the end of the half or game that result in a TD TD/INT ratio (but the NFL really needs an official scorer so when the WR lets it bounce of his chest to a CB the QB doesn't get the knock) % of potential yards gained (somewhat allows for special teams and defense influencing field position) YAC before first contact (if this even exists, lol measures acccuracy without rewarding QB for ball carrier breaking tackles) then have some math geek stat it up for me oh, and in the LQBR there is no such thing as a "perfect" game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smashmouth Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 By most 4th quarters Tom Brady is coasting with a 20 point lead... does that mean he sucks? no of course not but he was also 16-0 and lost in a close game in the SB. Great teams win games in the 4th quarter bad teams lose those games consistently. While brady might win a lot of games long before the 4th quarter even starts he will certainly be tested in the playoffs and he usually responds because he's a HOF player most players can't say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawk Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 You didn't need to add "exotic" to the title. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtina Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 By winning % Russel Wilson is better than both Peyton, and Rodgers. Tebow is better than Eli, and Stafford is worse than EJ Manuel Sanchez 11-5 Sanchez 4-12 Which is the real Sanchez? So now Sanchez has a 4-12 season? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtina Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 only in the short term. in the long term they are no longer young Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klecko73isGod Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 By winning % Russel Wilson is better than both Peyton, and Rodgers. Tebow is better than Eli, No, he's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Crusher Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 in the long term they are no longer young The great ones have a hard time walking away from the game. That is for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Integrity28 Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 You didn't need to add "exotic" to the title. Disagree... the thread title was the only thing that made it move a little, the thread itself is a snoozer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Integrity28 Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 The great ones have a hard time walking away from the game. That is for sure. Like I have a hard time walking away from an argument, and you have a hard time walking away from a buffet... it is known. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Crusher Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Like I have a hard time walking away from an argument, and you have a hard time walking away from a buffet... it is known. I'm usually handcuffed and tazed at the time so yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rex-n-effect Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 the LQBR Larz QB Rating % of redzone drives that end in a TD % of drives that end in 3 and out % of drives that begin within 4 minutes of the end of the half or game that result in a TD TD/INT ratio (but the NFL really needs an official scorer so when the WR lets it bounce of his chest to a CB the QB doesn't get the knock) % of potential yards gained (somewhat allows for special teams and defense influencing field position) YAC before first contact (if this even exists, lol measures acccuracy without rewarding QB for ball carrier breaking tackles) then have some math geek stat it up for me oh, and in the LQBR there is no such thing as a "perfect" game This is not very different from QBR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Crusher Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 This is not very different from QBR. Well yeah, cept for the L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYs Stepchild Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 No, he's not. No? Try including playoffs games Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYs Stepchild Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 So now Sanchez has a 4-12 season? LOL Sorry. It sure felt like he did...You didn't really laugh at loud at me, did you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klecko73isGod Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 No? Try including playoffs games No. Not even close. Tebow has a .500 record as a postseason starter. Eli's won two ******* Super Bowls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 EYE TEST: Tebow looks dreamy without a shirt. Eli looks better as a bad comedian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerfish Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 I can certainly picture Eli saying 'wokka wokka wokka.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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