Villain The Foe Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Listening to Around The NFL podcast this morning they mentioned something that I honestly thought was an error. "Brandon Weeden had a higher QBR than Tom Brady this weekend". Stats: Weeden: http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/14878/brandon-weeden Brady: http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/2330/tom-brady What makes up QBR ratings? And whatever it is they need to scrap it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Crusher Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 I still think the best stat to judge a QB is wins. Rodgers, Peyton and Brady win games. I know it's a team game, but no. The best QBs win. I call it the QBW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYs Stepchild Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 I still think the best stat to judge a QB is wins. Rodgers, Peyton and Brady win games. I know it's a team game, but no. The best QBs win. I call it the QBW. By winning % Russel Wilson is better than both Peyton, and Rodgers. Tebow is better than Eli, and Stafford is worse than EJ Manuel Sanchez 11-5 Sanchez 4-12 Which is the real Sanchez? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 I still think the best stat to judge a QB is wins. Rodgers, Peyton and Brady win games. I know it's a team game, but no. The best QBs win. I call it the QBW. I agree. It ain't perfect but in the end what else matters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rex-n-effect Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Brady had the second worse QBR in the league for this week. QBR is determined by review of the film on each play and determining how much the QB contributed to the success or failure of each play and how important the success or failure of that play was to the game as a whole. Brady ate some sacks and had a fumble. I didn't see all the game but based on the QBR calculation he mucked up the run game and took sacks at critical points. That doesn't help his QBR. The weak QBR also strongly suggests the receivers did all the work on the pass plays. That shouldn't be too surprising if you're running a quick offense with lots of short passes. If you look at YAC for Brady's receivers a third to half of their total yardage is YAC. So you don't give Brady credit under QBR for YAC and take away for the sacks and issues in the run game but QBR doesn't fit well with the pats offense this year because they are operating a passing game that relies on Brady's ability to make quick throws and pick up the YAC to take pressure off the o-line. That requires Brady to have good accuracy with those short throws but QBR doesn't seem to give weight to the need for pass accuracy on a given play. QBR is far more accurate with traditional NFL offenses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snell41 Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 QBR is what every Pennington fan constantly hung their hat on. You watch the guy on the field and it's plain as day the guy was completely outmatched, yet at the end of the day his QBR looked good because he always "took what the D gave him". Guess what, the D gives you that for a reason. A good QB doesn't take what the D gives, a good QB imposes his will and takes what the D doesn't want to give. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slats Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 I'm highly skeptical of ESPN's QBR and pay no attention to it. Just the fact that they need to keep their formula a secret (and already had to tweak it) makes it very suspect. It's simply ESPN's attempt to make themselves more important. I'm not playing along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villain The Foe Posted October 13, 2015 Author Share Posted October 13, 2015 By winning % Russel Wilson is better than both Peyton, and Rodgers. Tebow is better than Eli, and Stafford is worse than EJ Manuel Sanchez 11-5 Sanchez 4-12 Which is the real Sanchez? Tebow has over 100 wins in the NFL? Really? EJ Manuel has reached the playoffs? Really? @The Crusher never said anything about %ages. He said wins. Mariota won his first ever game in the NFL, did that make him the all-time best at that time because he won 100% of his games at that moment? No need to misconstrue what he was saying. What he said was pretty direct and simple to understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Crusher Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 By winning % Russel Wilson is better than both Peyton, and Rodgers. Tebow is better than Eli, and Stafford is worse than EJ Manuel Sanchez 11-5 Sanchez 4-12 Which is the real Sanchez? please pay attention to sample size. Let them do it consistently for ten years then I will let them on my list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyjunc Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 stats are used as a guide, the problem is too many "experts" and fans think stats tell us everything. this is how we get people thinking guys like Jay Cutler and Philip Rivers are great(not so much Cutler anymore), this is how dolphin fans think Ryan Tannehill was on the verge of greatness b/c he had a nice comp % a year ago. there's so much more to evaluating this position than raw #s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Crusher Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Tebow has over 100 wins in the NFL? Really? EJ Manuel has reached the playoffs? Really? @The Crusher never said anything about %ages. He said wins. Mariota won his first ever game in the NFL, did that make him the all-time best at that time because he won 100% of his games at that moment? No need to misconstrue what he was saying. What he said was pretty direct and simple to understand. Over time the best QBs are simply the ones that win. Maybe not a Superbowl. Most get really close though. But over ten years their fan base doesn't need any stat other than wins to know they got a great one. I'm a simple man with simple needs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 I still think the best stat to judge a QB is wins. Rodgers, Peyton and Brady win games. I know it's a team game, but no. The best QBs win. I call it the QBW. Yeah but for the first time his his career, the Broncos are winning despite Manning. That D is nasty!!! Hell, Eli looks better these days. Overall, I agree though. It's Rodgers and Brady and everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZachEY Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 "In general, I find that stats are great when they support what I've already made up my mind about, and they're irrelevant when they contradict what I've already made up my mind about." -- 99.975% of JN Posters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villain The Foe Posted October 13, 2015 Author Share Posted October 13, 2015 Over time the best QBs are simply the ones that win. Maybe not a Superbowl. Most get really close though. But over ten years their fan base doesn't need any stat other than wins to know they got a great one. I'm a simple man with simple needs. I agree. Wilson gets criticized for the team around him yet there are plenty of QB's that have squandered opportunities when the ball was ultimately in their hands with great talent around them. Just go back to those early Baltimore Raven years for any proof of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 please pay attention to sample size. Let them do it consistently for ten years then I will let them on my list. This makes it impossible to evaluate young QB's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 QB1 has a 75-33 record and 1 championship. QB2 has a 94-78 record and 2 championships. Which do you pick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Crusher Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 QB1 has a 75-33 record and 1 championship. QB2 has a 94-78 record and 2 championships. Which do you pick? I'm a Jet fan. I would take either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Crusher Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 This makes it impossible to evaluate young QB's. only in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 only in the short term. How short are we talking? Rookie deals are 4 years in length. Teams like the Dolphins are finding out the hard way what happens when you don't have a real QB but pay big QB money to one anyways. Just like we did when we paid Sanchez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyjunc Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 QB1 has a 75-33 record and 1 championship. QB2 has a 94-78 record and 2 championships. Which do you pick? you don't pick based on blind #s, this is the problem people have. we need to know more info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Harris Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 It's not really hard to know if a guy is a good quarterback or not. Any rating system for a quarterback is kind of silly. Do they pass the eyeball test? how is his accuracy? Does he read defenses? Did he make smart decisions? What are his physical skills? And yeah, does he win games? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Harper Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Listening to Around The NFL podcast this morning they mentioned something that I honestly thought was an error. "Brandon Weeden had a higher QBR than Tom Brady this weekend". Stats: Weeden: http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/14878/brandon-weeden Brady: http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/2330/tom-brady What makes up QBR ratings? And whatever it is they need to scrap it. Even dumber stat that quarterback rating. Fitz had a very high QBR last week (I think) when the eyeball says he only played okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chirorob Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Even dumber stat that quarterback rating. Fitz had a very high QBR last week (I think) when the eyeball says he only played okay. I think he was helped by a couple key scrambles. But you are right, stats don't tell the story. A QB throws a 7 yard completion on 3rd and 12. Good #, but didn't really help. Mike Vick throws an int on the last play of the first half on a Hail Mary. Would he have been better off throwing a screen for 15 yards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 I think he was helped by a couple key scrambles. But you are right, stats don't tell the story. A QB throws a 7 yard completion on 3rd and 12. Good #, but didn't really help. Mike Vick throws an int on the last play of the first half on a Hail Mary. Would he have been better off throwing a screen for 15 yards? That's where FootballOutsiders and Pro Football Focus' rating systems attempt to come into play. For instance, for RB's, a 3 yard run looked at in a vacuum is a poor carry. But when this occurs on 4th & 1 or 4th & goal from the 3 it is a hugely successful play. Those advanced metrics attempt to give weight to plays like that. In order to value players accurately on a game-by-game basis you have to watch every snap of every game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T0mShane Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Stats are for gays. /endthread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rex-n-effect Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 It's not really hard to know if a guy is a good quarterback or not. Any rating system for a quarterback is kind of silly. Do they pass the eyeball test? how is his accuracy? Does he read defenses? Did he make smart decisions? What are his physical skills? And yeah, does he win games? That's actually the purpose of QBR. Rather than just credit the QB for anything positive in the passing game it looks play by play at what the QB did and how important it was that the QB did it. A QB who makes the crucial third and long at midfield to keep a drive going deserves more praise than the QB nailing a two yard pass on first and ten from his own twenty. It's an imperfect stat and its relevance is undoubtedly questionable but until we figure out, among many other metrics, a way to reduce a QB's ability to read defenses and respond to them into a useful stat there's going to be a glaring hole in the way we statistically analyze QBs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Stats are for gays. /endthread As opposed to JN eyeballs. Those are notoriously straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet9 Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Wins, TDs, TOs, and comp %. In that order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Harper Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Stats are for gays. /endthread That seems unfair that only gays can use stats to support their dopey arguments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smashmouth Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 I still think the best stat to judge a QB is wins. Rodgers, Peyton and Brady win games. I know it's a team game, but no. The best QBs win. I call it the QBW. so then judging by playoff wins Peyton Manning sucks I call it PMS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smashmouth Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Listening to Around The NFL podcast this morning they mentioned something that I honestly thought was an error. "Brandon Weeden had a higher QBR than Tom Brady this weekend". Stats: Weeden: http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/14878/brandon-weeden Brady: http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/2330/tom-brady What makes up QBR ratings? And whatever it is they need to scrap it. Good thread.... QBR and most advanced stats are ridiculous. The most important part of a football game is the 4th quarter that's where players should be judged by how clutch they perform when the game is on the line because most NFL games are close and can easily be decided in the 4th quarter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyjunc Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 so then judging by playoff wins Peyton Manning sucks I call it PMS Peyton is top 2-3 reg season QB of all time, he consistently gives his teams a chance to compete for championships. Once in the playoffs he consistently struggles and is a major reason why he only has 1 SB when he should have 3-4 but he always has his teams in position to compete. the best ones do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lupz27 Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 I agree. Wilson gets criticized for the team around him yet there are plenty of QB's that have squandered opportunities when the ball was ultimately in their hands with great talent around them. Just go back to those early Baltimore Raven years for any proof of that. I personally think Wlson is the 3rd best QB in the league behind Rodgers, and Brady RIGHT NOW, what happens to him when his legs can't do what his brain wants them to do as he gets older is a question mark, he will have to kinda reinvent himself when that time comes, and I wouldn't be surprised if he does. He is smart, talented, and most importantly football is his life like Brady who also had to reinvent himself twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage69 Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 That's actually the purpose of QBR. Rather than just credit the QB for anything positive in the passing game it looks play by play at what the QB did and how important it was that the QB did it. A QB who makes the crucial third and long at midfield to keep a drive going deserves more praise than the QB nailing a two yard pass on first and ten from his own twenty. It's an imperfect stat and its relevance is undoubtedly questionable but until we figure out, among many other metrics, a way to reduce a QB's ability to read defenses and respond to them into a useful stat there's going to be a glaring hole in the way we statistically analyze QBs. Like paying a 600 dollar debt?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villain The Foe Posted October 13, 2015 Author Share Posted October 13, 2015 Brady had the second worse QBR in the league for this week. QBR is determined by review of the film on each play and determining how much the QB contributed to the success or failure of each play and how important the success or failure of that play was to the game as a whole. Brady ate some sacks and had a fumble. I didn't see all the game but based on the QBR calculation he mucked up the run game and took sacks at critical points. That doesn't help his QBR. The weak QBR also strongly suggests the receivers did all the work on the pass plays. That shouldn't be too surprising if you're running a quick offense with lots of short passes. If you look at YAC for Brady's receivers a third to half of their total yardage is YAC. So you don't give Brady credit under QBR for YAC and take away for the sacks and issues in the run game but QBR doesn't fit well with the pats offense this year because they are operating a passing game that relies on Brady's ability to make quick throws and pick up the YAC to take pressure off the o-line. That requires Brady to have good accuracy with those short throws but QBR doesn't seem to give weight to the need for pass accuracy on a given play. QBR is far more accurate with traditional NFL offenses. Well, given those illegal picks that the refs allow the Pats receivers to run maybe you have a point lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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