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gEYno

**** TANKWATCH 2017 - THE HUNT FOR A QB ****

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Even if we don't end up liking the QB's at the top of the draft, it's undeniable that having the # 1 or 2 pick gives you enormous draft capital with which to move down and pick up multiple quality picks. 

Tanking properly is essential this year, regardless of who is on the board or even who the GM is making the decisions. 

Thus, this is a good thread. 

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Obviously the best best case is that we have the #1 and are coy about which of the QBs we favor.  It might be possible in such a case to BOTH get our guy AND pick up some additional picks along the way....

One can only dream... fap fap fap

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19 minutes ago, Brady's a catcher said:

I know. Why in a year in which we are truly, unquestionably awful are there 4-5 similarly wretched teams? Because "Jets", that's why. It's a lifestyle. Or a deathstyle. A long, slow deathstyle.

Amazing isn't it? Usually 2 teams vying for the worst & here we are vying with like 6 teams. Hell, maybe it's for the better as I would not be one bit surprised Jets get #1 & pick the WRONG GUY! Might be better to be at #3 and take whichever guy gets bypassed (Rosen or Allen) and hope for the best! There are a lot of Allen fans in the scouting community. Guy playing on a woefully outgunned squad. 

I would be happy with any of those 3! So we have to be at least the 3rd worst record.

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1 minute ago, Jetster said:

Amazing isn't it? Usually 2 teams vying for the worst & here we are vying with like 6 teams. Hell, maybe it's for the better as I would not be one bit surprised Jets get #1 & pick the WRONG GUY! Might be better to be at #3 and take whichever guy gets bypassed (Rosen or Allen) and hope for the best! There are a lot of Allen fans in the scouting community. Guy playing on a woefully outgunned squad. 

I would be happy with any of those 3! So we have to be at least the 3rd worst record.

That's true, hadn't even thought of that. we'd be much more likely to end up with RG3 if it's up to us to make a decision. Must be nice to have a GM that you believe to be a competent talent evaluater.

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8 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Even if we don't end up liking the QB's at the top of the draft, it's undeniable that having the # 1 or 2 pick gives you enormous draft capital with which to move down and pick up multiple quality picks. 

Tanking properly is essential this year, regardless of who is on the board or even who the GM is making the decisions. 

Thus, this is a good thread. 

To me, there are 4 relevant questions here (with answers):

1)  Will the Jets draft in at least the top 3 this year, which should get them a potential franchise QB?  As of Week 1, we are on track!

2)  Do the Jets have a QB or 2 on the roster that should cause them to avoid having to pay money they could use elsewhere to sign a veteran bridge QB?  I think Petty looks good enough to start next year while the draftee gets acclimated.  Hopefully Hack could be there too.

3)  Is their evidence that the current Jets brass could be entrusted to get at least another year to coach, develop and pick players?  Based on Week 2, absolutely not.

4)  For going forward, how bad does the Jets roster look for 2018?  Really flipping bad.  I would be cutting or trading players for cap space, although I think foolishly Macc is now stuck with some veteran salaries that he could have shed.  This is Exhibit A to Question/Answer 3.  At a minimum, for a functional offense at this point we need WR1, RB1 and 2, LT and C.   Some of these should have been accumulated in the last draft.  

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3 minutes ago, varjet said:

To me, there are 4 relevant questions here (with answers):

1)  Will the Jets draft in at least the top 3 this year, which should get them a potential franchise QB?  As of Week 1, we are on track!

2)  Do the Jets have a QB or 2 on the roster that should cause them to avoid having to pay money they could use elsewhere to sign a veteran bridge QB?  I think Petty looks good enough to start next year while the draftee gets acclimated.  Hopefully Hack could be there too.

3)  Is their evidence that the current Jets brass could be entrusted to get at least another year to coach, develop and pick players?  Based on Week 2, absolutely not.

4)  For going forward, how bad does the Jets roster look for 2018?  Really flipping bad.  I would be cutting or trading players for cap space, although I think foolishly Macc is now stuck with some veteran salaries that he could have shed.  This is Exhibit A to Question/Answer 3.  At a minimum, for a functional offense at this point we need WR1, RB1 and 2, LT and C.   Some of these should have been accumulated in the last draft.  

Other than Mo what veteran salaries is he stuck with large cap hits? Skrine & Forte will be gone. And he'd save 11 million cutting Mo with I believe an 8 million cap hit. So after trading Sheldon, and possibly cutting Kearse next offseason (5 million), Jets would be approximately 85/95 million dollars under the cap.

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17 minutes ago, EM31 said:

Obviously the best best case is that we have the #1 and are coy about which of the QBs we favor.  It might be possible in such a case to BOTH get our guy AND pick up some additional picks along the way....

One can only dream... fap fap fap

Given our disastrous history, both on the field and in the war room, the absolute last thing in the universe any of us should hope for is for the Jets to get cute. In fact, I don't even want Macc (or whatever poor SOB is our GM next year) to do anything other than select the consensus #1 QB prospect available. Yes I trust Todd McShay over *Generic Jets GM.

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If anyone missed the game but wants more than the standard 1 minute highlight reel of the game, here is USC vs Stanford complete game in 30 minutes: 

 

The group that uploaded this does similar videos for some of the other top college games too. 

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31 minutes ago, Jetster said:

Amazing isn't it? Usually 2 teams vying for the worst & here we are vying with like 6 teams. Hell, maybe it's for the better as I would not be one bit surprised Jets get #1 & pick the WRONG GUY! Might be better to be at #3 and take whichever guy gets bypassed (Rosen or Allen) and hope for the best! There are a lot of Allen fans in the scouting community. Guy playing on a woefully outgunned squad. 

I would be happy with any of those 3! So we have to be at least the 3rd worst record.

It's only week 2 - plenty of these teams are going to win games and we'll only be discussing 2-3 teams by mid-season, I'd guess.

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36 minutes ago, Jetster said:

Other than Mo what veteran salaries is he stuck with large cap hits? Skrine & Forte will be gone. And he'd save 11 million cutting Mo with I believe an 8 million cap hit. So after trading Sheldon, and possibly cutting Kearse next offseason (5 million), Jets would be approximately 85/95 million dollars under the cap.

McClendon, Skrine and Kerley were kept/signed for this year, and the Jets are on the hook for their salaries this year.  

Given what we saw on Sunday, we were better off without them and with the money, IMHO.

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Lots of games to keep an eye on this week:

Thursday Night: Rams at 49ers -- Either 9ers get their first win, or Rams jump up to two, and likely out of contention early on.

Ravens at Jags -- Good that the Jags got one early win, but they're looking at 1-2 here.  They do have a bunch of winnable games coming up though.

Browns at Colts -- Someone gets their first win.  Good news either way!

Giants at Eagles -- Is it too soon to wonder if we need to start thinking about the Giants?

Dolphins at Jets -- Obviously

Broncos at Bills -- Bills likely to drop to 1-2 here

Saints at Panthers -- Drew Brees should be able to get them some wins, but they could drop to 0-3 here

Steelers at Bears -- Bears should drop to 0-3 here

Bengals at Packers -- Bengals should drop to 0-3 here

Chiefs at Chargers -- Chargers are my sleeper pick to stick around, and could go 0-3 here too

Lots of teams looking at an 0-3 start to the year, I would not be at all surprised if there are 8 of them.  The most likely to win actually may be the Jets.  Thoughts?

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Prediction: If four or more teams finish with 2 or less wins, we'll see a draft lottery by next season.  And I think it could happen.  A lot of teams are clearly not trying very hard.

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7 minutes ago, gEYno said:

Lots of games to keep an eye on this week:

Thursday Night: Rams at 49ers -- Either 9ers get their first win, or Rams jump up to two, and likely out of contention early on.

Ravens at Jags -- Good that the Jags got one early win, but they're looking at 1-2 here.  They do have a bunch of winnable games coming up though.

Browns at Colts -- Someone gets their first win.  Good news either way!

Giants at Eagles -- Is it too soon to wonder if we need to start thinking about the Giants?

Dolphins at Jets -- Obviously

Broncos at Bills -- Bills likely to drop to 1-2 here

Saints at Panthers -- Drew Brees should be able to get them some wins, but they could drop to 0-3 here

Steelers at Bears -- Bears should drop to 0-3 here

Bengals at Packers -- Bengals should drop to 0-3 here

Chiefs at Chargers -- Chargers are my sleeper pick to stick around, and could go 0-3 here too

Lots of teams looking at an 0-3 start to the year, I would not be at all surprised if there are 8 of them.  The most likely to win actually may be the Jets.  Thoughts?

I don't know. Teams like the Giants, Saints, Bengals, and Chargers have to much talent to be discussed. They'll get their wins here and there. Bills are a wildcard. 

I think it's the Jets, 49ers, Browns, Bears and Colts unless Luck returns. 

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13 minutes ago, gEYno said:

Lots of games to keep an eye on this week:

Thursday Night: Rams at 49ers -- Either 9ers get their first win, or Rams jump up to two, and likely out of contention early on.

Ravens at Jags -- Good that the Jags got one early win, but they're looking at 1-2 here.  They do have a bunch of winnable games coming up though.

Browns at Colts -- Someone gets their first win.  Good news either way!

Giants at Eagles -- Is it too soon to wonder if we need to start thinking about the Giants?

Dolphins at Jets -- Obviously

Broncos at Bills -- Bills likely to drop to 1-2 here

Saints at Panthers -- Drew Brees should be able to get them some wins, but they could drop to 0-3 here

Steelers at Bears -- Bears should drop to 0-3 here

Bengals at Packers -- Bengals should drop to 0-3 here

Chiefs at Chargers -- Chargers are my sleeper pick to stick around, and could go 0-3 here too

Lots of teams looking at an 0-3 start to the year, I would not be at all surprised if there are 8 of them.  The most likely to win actually may be the Jets.  Thoughts?

Chargers are only 3 point underdogs and jags are only 4 point underdogs. So there is hope for those two teams to pull out wins.

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On 9/12/2017 at 2:43 PM, section314 said:

Don't think you're gonna have to worry about it.

Why do we think picking 3 is going to get us a QB in this draft?  At minimum one of the top 2 teams will need a QB, and that leaves the other team open for business based on the 100% certainty that the Jets will take a QB if one is available at 3.  

The best move at that point, is to offer a package including one of our 2nd round picks, to move from 3 to 2 - even if it costs us "a lot". 

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Did anyone really think/hope we'd be the lone winless team (among the coalition of the lousy) after 2 weeks, and further believe it's indicative of anything by the time the season's ended? 

Even awful teams will often eke out 4-5 wins just from coin-toss wins vs. equally-futile teams, and lucky-timed injury matchups with better ones. The odds of only 1-2 teams ending up with 4 wins or fewer (the total that yielded the #1 pick in an outstanding 2004 draft class) is virtually nonexistent in any year. Almost any team finishing with 4 wins could have just as easily finished with 3 or 2 wins (or 5-6 wins) if the ball bounced a different way.

So it's too early to suggest this is some special year of mass ineptitude, the likes of which the NFL has never seen.

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55 minutes ago, Pac said:

yeah...  so how does the Jets winning this Sunday impact Tankapalooza?  Cause hate to break it to you but we're beating the fins.

Maybe. But I wouldn't bet on it. Have we ever beaten Cutler? I don't think so.

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In 2004 Eli went #1 overall to (then) the Chargers. They finished a league-worst 4-12, as did 3 other teams (including the Giants). That is super-lucky; it really doesn't happen anymore as there's always a team with 1-3 wins (if not multiple such teams) every year of late.  And any team that won 4 could have just as easily won only 3 (if not 2 or 1). So there are always plenty of terrible teams to make a top-3 pick very competitive. 

- In 2016 there were teams with 1, 2, and 3 wins (plus another with 4) = 4 teams 4-12 or worse. Without even tanking we lucked our way into getting as many as 5 wins and pre-combine hype aside, in the end the only QB we missed out on was Trubisky (hardly a sure thing anyway, who shot up late, and certainly not some consensus #1 type prospect regardless of how he ultimately turns out). 

- In 2015, a pair of 3-win teams and a pair of 4-win teams = 4 teams 4-12 or worse in the Goff/Wentz/Lynch draft, also hardly considered a class of the ages back then. For a while Goff was projected to go only 7th overall, and maybe Wentz would go #1 but only by lack of better prospects that year, and Lynch eventually projected as high as 7-9 maybe. Online sites touted as many as 5 different prospects could go in round 1, at one time or another (including Hackenberg and Cook). So far the most successful of the lot went late in round 4.

- In 2014, a pair of 2, 3, and 4-win teams = 6 teams 4-12 or worse

- In 2013, a 2-win and a 3-win team, but also five 4-win teams = 7 teams 4-12 or worse

- In 2012, a pair of 2-win teams (with what would become a QB-less draft class) = 5 teams 4-12 or worse

- In 2011, a pair of 2-win teams plus a 3-win team and two 4-win teams = 5 teams 4-12 or worse

So 3 of the last 6 seasons saw a 2-win team fail to secure the #1 overall pick. A hapless, 3-win team would have only ended up with even the #2 pick twice in the last 6 years (one of those being the Manuel/Geno 2013 draft). So this year isn't so special in terms of bad teams. Besides, the whole thing with such a hyped/deep QB draft class is precisely that the QB talent isn't limited to just 1 or 2 prospects. 

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1 hour ago, nycdan said:

Prediction: If four or more teams finish with 2 or less wins, we'll see a draft lottery by next season.  And I think it could happen.  A lot of teams are clearly not trying very hard.

They probably should do this.

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1 hour ago, MDL_JET said:

I don't know. Teams like the Giants, Saints, Bengals, and Chargers have to much talent to be discussed. They'll get their wins here and there. Bills are a wildcard. 

I think it's the Jets, 49ers, Browns, Bears and Colts unless Luck returns. 

They will probably all be gone, but for now, they're all looking at 0-3.  

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1 hour ago, Pac said:

yeah...  so how does the Jets winning this Sunday impact Tankapalooza?  Cause hate to break it to you but we're beating the fins.

While I bet you also said that about the Bills, I think there's an okay chance we win.  That said, they swept us last year, and we are undoubtedly not better than last year.

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On 9/10/2017 at 5:07 PM, 20andOut said:

I've been a critic of the "suck for sam" approach but after the last 24 hrs of football (Jets today, USC last night) I may be all in.

 

welcome !.. grab a cold one & chill    :beer:

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1 hour ago, Pac said:

yeah...  so how does the Jets winning this Sunday impact Tankapalooza?  Cause hate to break it to you but we're beating the fins.

BEFORE cutler.. possible...now,.. No chance  :(

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5 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

In 2004 Eli went #1 overall to (then) the Chargers. They finished a league-worst 4-12, as did 3 other teams (including the Giants). That is super-lucky; it really doesn't happen anymore as there's always a team with 1-3 wins (if not multiple such teams) every year of late.  And any team that won 4 could have just as easily won only 3 (if not 2 or 1). So there are always plenty of terrible teams to make a top-3 pick very competitive. 

- In 2016 there were teams with 1, 2, and 3 wins (plus another with 4) = 4 teams 4-12 or worse. Without even tanking we lucked our way into getting as many as 5 wins and pre-combine hype aside, in the end the only QB we missed out on was Trubisky (hardly a sure thing anyway, who shot up late, and certainly not some consensus #1 type prospect regardless of how he ultimately turns out). 

- In 2015, a pair of 3-win teams and a pair of 4-win teams = 4 teams 4-12 or worse in the Goff/Wentz/Lynch draft, also hardly considered a class of the ages back then. For a while Goff was projected to go only 7th overall, and maybe Wentz would go #1 but only by lack of better prospects that year, and Lynch eventually projected as high as 7-9 maybe. Online sites touted as many as 5 different prospects could go in round 1, at one time or another (including Hackenberg and Cook). So far the most successful of the lot went late in round 4.

- In 2014, a pair of 2, 3, and 4-win teams = 6 teams 4-12 or worse

- In 2013, a 2-win and a 3-win team, but also five 4-win teams = 7 teams 4-12 or worse

- In 2012, a pair of 2-win teams (with what would become a QB-less draft class) = 5 teams 4-12 or worse

- In 2011, a pair of 2-win teams plus a 3-win team and two 4-win teams = 5 teams 4-12 or worse

So 3 of the last 6 seasons saw a 2-win team fail to secure the #1 overall pick. A hapless, 3-win team would have only ended up with even the #2 pick twice in the last 6 years (one of those being the Manuel/Geno 2013 draft). So this year isn't so special in terms of bad teams. Besides, the whole thing with such a hyped/deep QB draft class is precisely that the QB talent isn't limited to just 1 or 2 prospects. 

A lot of these bad teams start playing each other soon.  This week, we have two such match-ups.  Next week, we play JAX, Bengals v. Browns, even 49ers vs. Cardinals could be relevant.  Following week, we play the Browns, 49ers vs. Colts, Bills vs. Bengals, and Chargers vs. Giants.  So, yeah, plenty of wins to be had out there for teams performing poorly right now.

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