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Poll: Fitz vs Geno


Mike135

Fitz or Geno?  

168 members have voted

  1. 1. 2016 Starter?

    • Fitz @8mil+ (most likely 10mil+ and multiple years)
    • Geno
    • Fitz @7mil and not a penny more! Otherwise Geno. (Added for LIJetsFan.)


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8 hours ago, EM31 said:

Yes and no.

First of all Mo is apparently looking for a large number guaranteed and whatever that number is gets spread evenly over the life of the deal.  Second the idea of balloon payments at the end of a contract is not allowed any more under the CBA so I am not sure how much back loading is even possible any more.

The guarantee doesn't get evenly spread over the life of the deal. The signing bonus is what gets evenly spread. Though all signing bonus money is of course guaranteed, not all guaranteed money is in the form of signing bonus. 

I didn't say or suggest balloon payments at the end; I just said they can make the 1st year particularly low, if they so choose. Suh signed a 6 year $114M contract under this CBA, yet his first year cap number was only $6M (hey, it was a Tannenbaum Special so would you expect any different?). It has since been renegotiated, but his cap number in 2019 is just north of $28M

Osweiller received $18M/year (probably in the neighborhood of what Mo is seeking). This year - year 1 of that deal - his cap # is $12M.

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4 hours ago, win4ever said:

The Suh contract is horrible though, to get the cap number down in the first year, they guaranteed him an insane number with pretty much no protection to move on if needed.  If Suh gets injury prone, they aren't really moving him until 2019, and that's a sacrifice that is hard to swallow.  

I understand that they can restructure, but that also has sacrifices that I feel aren't worth it for Fitz.  A good QB is available, yeah, sure as heck go nuts to take that shot, but it's not worth it for Fitz.  And without those restructures, we're not fitting in any QB of value.  

Brock Osweiler got 72 million this offseason to be a QB.  His stats last year with a loaded team are slightly better than Geno in his last full year.  +4 in QBR, +9 in QB rating, same TD%, -1.4 INT%.  Same age.  Bill O'Brien knows Fitz, available for much cheaper, and they still dished out tons of money to the guy, and passed over the known guy in Fitz for a team that is built to win now.  I'm not saying, Geno will get paid 72 million anytime soon, but if a coach known for his complex system is willing to bypass on-field genius Fitz, why are people clamoring for him to return here?  I think I, you, and others have mentioned the schedule he faced last year in other threads, the weapons he had at his disposal, and pretty much no team coming close to signing him, yet he gets treated like a God here.  

Totally agree. The only thing I was (initially) commenting on was that reaching an agreement with Mo will lower his 2016 cap number. That is unless, for some reason, Maccagnan chooses to spread it more evenly (like deals for Revis, Cromartie, Marshall).

As far as the Geno stats, there were extreme single-game outliers in both directions. I wouldn't shrug off the perfect game the way others do, as though Miami was taking the field, risking injury to their starters, and not trying (or were outright tanking). There was a similar outlier game in the opposite direction, against Buffalo. He got yanked (mercifully and appropriately), but if left in would he have settled down to the point his stats would have evened out, or would he have thrown 10 interceptions? We'll never know for certain. There were other meaningless passing stats that do get factored in (that make his passing numbers look worse) like 2 picks on basically hail mary passes that were of no consequence (one a pick 6, but were we really marching 90 yards in 24 seconds with no timeouts against Denver? Of course not). He also got a clutch big time throw TD taken away by that f*cking timeout against GB. 

The other side of that coin is that the brutal sacks he took that pulled us out of FG range (and fumbles he committed), that directly took points off the board, do not adequately negatively factor into QB ratings. Just like Fitzpatrick the season before. He had one crazy game that (not unlike Geno's perfect-QBR game) made the rest of his year look better than it was. In reality, neither one played a small percentage of that great game in each outing. It was one game, and piling on further after a win was already secured in one game certainly didn't help their teams in their prior outings. Especially considering that, weeks prior in that same season, each was benched for poor play.

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1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

The guarantee doesn't get evenly spread over the life of the deal. The signing bonus is what gets evenly spread. Though all signing bonus money is of course guaranteed, not all guaranteed money is in the form of signing bonus. 

I didn't say or suggest balloon payments at the end; I just said they can make the 1st year particularly low, if they so choose. Suh signed a 6 year $114M contract under this CBA, yet his first year cap number was only $6M (hey, it was a Tannenbaum Special so would you expect any different?). It has since been renegotiated, but his cap number in 2019 is just north of $28M

Osweiller received $18M/year (probably in the neighborhood of what Mo is seeking). This year - year 1 of that deal - his cap # is $12M.

Fair enough, I stand corrected.

The wisdom of paying next Tuesday for a hamburger today is always questionable and the people who feel that the salary cap is going to go up every single year, presumably to the moon eventually must have been extremely disappointed when it did not go up a single penny in the four years between 2009 and 2013.  There were people on these boards who felt that we should pay up for some free agent or other because the money would eventually look like peanuts after a few years once the salary cap had gone up 15%-20% every year. These things go in spurts.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, EM31 said:

Fair enough, I stand corrected.

The wisdom of paying next Tuesday for a hamburger today is always questionable and the people who feel that the salary cap is going to go up every single year, presumably to the moon eventually must have been extremely disappointed when it did not go up a single penny in the four years between 2009 and 2013.  There were people on these boards who felt that we should pay up for some free agent or other because the money would eventually look like peanuts after a few years once the salary cap had gone up 15%-20% every year. These things go in spurts.

 

 

No doubt. Understand, I wasn't speaking to the prudence of a contract structured in such a way; just that it is doable. In all likelihood, if he was locked up on a longer deal (at say, $17-18M per, for example), I'd expect the first year to be in the $12-13M range, saving some $3M this year (give or take, depending on what his deal actually looked like).

The problem is we'd have to also keep it lower - or anyway, keep it from ballooning too highly - in 2017, as his deal alone would push us right up near the cap limit before we add anyone new in FA. They could push a disproportionate amount to 2018, knowing we have so little locked in for that year right now, but I just dislike that as a basic strategy. What we allot to one player cannot be used on another player (or in this case, another 2 players or more). 

The only caveat is that, barring an unexpected (to say the least) need or desire to lock up Geno at huge dollars after this season, the Jets don't figure to need huge cap space for a QB until 2019 (if it's Petty), 2020 (if it's Hackenberg), or 2021+ (if someone else). There are a couple of veteran QBs who could possibly shake loose and become FAs in the upcoming years if they aren't extended or franchise tagged, but if Mo is retained we likely can't be the high bidder for one until 2018 regardless.

On paper, QBs becoming FAs in...

  • 2017: Brees, Glennon, Cousins, and technically Luck but there's a 0% chance of him hitting FA (if it's even that high)
  • 2018: Stafford, Taylor, Garoppolo, Bridgewater, Bortles, Bradford (if he's not cut/traded in 2017)
  • 2019: Palmer (if he's still playing), Ryan, Alex Smith, Winston/Mariota

Hoping for a worthwhile veteran QB to be available via FA or trade is no less of a prayer as wishing for one of our current guys to pan out IMO. Also it would be poor team management to bank on that happening anyway.

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2 hours ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

 

So accept a small sample size over the larger one? If take Geno's numbers and extrapolate them over an entire season, he goes 0-16. See how silly that is? Cheaper and younger isn't always better and it doesn't matter what you think of the drop off. All that matters is what TB and MM think. You know, the paid professionals. 

Not close to the point.  You keep saying that he can't play, it's been proven.  The relatively small sample size is fine to say he can't do it.  But doesn't work the other way around?  You keep bringing up Oakland as his 3rd failure but the point is his numbers were better than what we came to expect from Fitz.  That at least says he might have a chance to salvage something.  Doesn't say it's the 3rd time he's proven he can't play.

i never said that it makes a difference what I think when it comes to who gets the job.  But I'm allowed to an opinion and its that there will be little drop off, if any, after watching Fitz shlt away the season with his horrific games.  If Geno had the game that Fitz had in Buffalo, you and others would be killing Geno from sunup to sun down.  

Youre just too stubborn to admit it 

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10 hours ago, joewilly12 said:

BIGGER LIES 

He had Clyde Gates and David Nelson and other no names. 

He also had the worst offensive coordinator in the league MM. 

Decker played with an injury. Harvin was injured Amaro what has he done to date?  

He finished 8-8 with a much tougher schedule than Fitzpatrick had in 2015. 

Well to be fair, amaro led all rookie TEs in yards and receptions I believe. He should be pretty good

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11 hours ago, joewilly12 said:

Fitz has had 11 years with 6 different teams why does he deserve another chance? 

 

11 hours ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

Answering a question with a diversion question is awesome. Good job. Can you answer a question about Geno without referencing Fitz? It's not that hard. If you're going to interject, please do better. 

 

11 hours ago, Warfish said:

Answering a direct Geno question with "Fitz has...".

Obsessed much?

 

11 hours ago, joewilly12 said:

 

Does the truth hurt fellas? 

Hey Joewilly, 

 

The direct answer is "Because Geno is a Jet". lol. 

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11 hours ago, Jet Fan RI said:

I thought Geno only was the starter twice? Why do you say 3 chances? Anyway, he won the starting position last year but didn't really get the chance due to his broken jaw. Plus he was rushed into starting just like Sanchez was rushed in right at the start. Plus he hasn't been tried with a good supporting cast of offensive players like is there now. I'm just saying give him one more chance before tossing him onto the scrap heap.

And this is why @joewilly12 said that these guys dont like the truth. The only guy to give a thumbs down on this absolute fact above is @CrazyCarl40

 

Im stirring the pot! :thumbup:

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10 hours ago, Rangers9 said:

Geno Smith had 29 starts. Isn't that a fair enough sample size. Mark had over 60. Isn't it time this franchise learned from their mistakes. 

Ryan Fitzpatrick, being the closest he has even been to a possible playoff birth, threw 3 INT's in the fourth quarter to end the Jets season. 

 

That was his 112th game of his career. Isnt it time the NFL learned from its mistakes given that this is Fitzpatrick's 6th team in 11 years? 

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1 minute ago, Villain The Foe said:

Ryan Fitzpatrick, being the closest he has even been to a possible playoff birth, threw 3 INT's in the fourth quarter to end the Jets season. 

 

That was his 112th game of his career. Isnt it time the NFL learned from its mistakes given that this is Fitzpatrick's 6th team in 11 years? 

but he threw TDs to decker and Marshall and set Jet records- who cares about silly things like the playoffs?

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1 hour ago, Colgateman said:

Well to be fair, amaro led all rookie TEs in yards and receptions I believe. He should be pretty good

Yup, I'm not sure why people are down on Amaro so much.  He was drafted as a receiving TE.  We knew he wasn't the big blocking type.  Granted it did seem like at least once a game he'd have an easy drop (though he then always seemed to make up for it with a great catch later).  Hopefully that's something overcome with experience.  As a rookie he did pretty well.

Like last season we used Enunwa as a big WR who could block well.  I look at Amaro as a notch towards more of a TE than Enunwa, but also just as much of a receiving threat.  He'll be a great weapon if used correctly.  Too fast/mobile for traditional LBs and too big for safeties to cover.

I guess the main concern is health.  Hopefully he can bounce back this year.  If so, the RZ and medium-range passing attack will be insane with Marshall, Decker and Amaro.

Not to keep ranting, but damn if we can get decent play from a QB that has even somewhat of an arm... add Devin n Peake as deep threats (along with Marshall n Deck).  Not to mention Forte/Powell out of the backfield...  $hit we can be lethal if teams have to respect the deep ball.

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11 hours ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

Lies. Lies. And damn lies. 

Geno started for two seasons. That's two chances. He had a third chance and ended up with a broken jaw. That's three. Blew them all with poor on field decisions and off field decisions. 

His first season he had garbage players, sure. In his second season he had: Decker, Harvin, Kerley, Amaro, Ivory, Powell etc etc. That may not be a murderer's row but it's not the worst I've seen. He got worse in his second season and was replaced multiple times by a guy who didn't even want to be there. 

He came back from that benching in 2014 to play in 6 games. His numbers over those six weeks: 134 attempts, 88 completions, 1155 yards, 6 TDs, 3 ints. That works out to a 65.6% comp rate, 4.4% TD rate, 2.2% int rate, 8.6 yards per attempt, and a 98.3 passer rating. Those are good numbers over a six game stretch. In fact, the only number worse than Fitz in his miracle 2015 run is the TD rate, where Fitz wins 5.5 to 4.4. Otherwise? Geno wins the int rate 2.2 to 2.7, comp rate 65.6 to 59.6, passer rating 98.3 to 88, and blows him away in yards per attempt 8.6 to 6.9. 

That was his response to being sat for a few games, with Rex, Marty, and no Marshall. So yeah, I think he can potentially respond very well after sitting a year with Gailey, Marshall, Forte, etc. 

Geno is under contract, Fitz will cost a minimum of $7M to join the team. I just don't think Fitz brings $7M+ value over what Geno can potentially do. Indeed, what Geno has already done over a stretch of time. 

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2 minutes ago, slats said:

He came back from that benching in 2014 to play in 6 games. His numbers over those six weeks: 134 attempts, 88 completions, 1155 yards, 6 TDs, 3 ints. That works out to a 65.6% comp rate, 4.4% TD rate, 2.2% int rate, 8.6 yards per attempt, and a 98.3 passer rating. Those are good numbers over a six game stretch. In fact, the only number worse than Fitz in his miracle 2015 run is the TD rate, where Fitz wins 5.5 to 4.4. Otherwise? Geno wins the int rate 2.2 to 2.7, comp rate 65.6 to 59.6, passer rating 98.3 to 88, and blows him away in yards per attempt 8.6 to 6.9. 

That was his response to being sat for a few games, with Rex, Marty, and no Marshall. So yeah, I think he can potentially respond very well after sitting a year with Gailey, Marshall, Forte, etc. 

Geno is under contract, Fitz will cost a minimum of $7M to join the team. I just don't think Fitz brings $7M+ value over what Geno can potentially do. Indeed, what Geno has already done over a stretch of time. 

@slats may not have voted, but it sure seems like he's in the Geno camp.

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13 minutes ago, Mike135 said:

Yup, I'm not sure why people are down on Amaro so much.  He was drafted as a receiving TE.  We knew he wasn't the big blocking type.  Granted it did seem like at least once a game he'd have an easy drop (though he then always seemed to make up for it with a great catch later).  Hopefully that's something overcome with experience.  As a rookie he did pretty well.

Like last season we used Enunwa as a big WR who could block well.  I look at Amaro as a notch towards more of a TE than Enunwa, but also just as much of a receiving threat.  He'll be a great weapon if used correctly.  Too fast/mobile for traditional LBs and too big for safeties to cover.

I guess the main concern is health.  Hopefully he can bounce back this year.  If so, the RZ and medium-range passing attack will be insane with Marshall, Decker and Amaro.

Not to keep ranting, but damn if we can get decent play from a QB that has even somewhat of an arm... add Devin n Peake as deep threats (along with Marshall n Deck).  Not to mention Forte/Powell out of the backfield...  $hit we can be lethal if teams have to respect the deep ball.

As I recall while Amaro didn't have a good training camp that rookie year and was slow to pick up the offense he got better as the season progressed and was decent as a receiving TE. We also were hearing that he was improving in blocking. I didn't think that last summer before his injury (in the first exhibition game) that Gailey loved him. And originally they felt the injury was short term. I got the feeling that the team and new coaching staff were down on him but I could be wrong about that and.It did open things up for Q and now he has a role and was a starter last year. I'd take a guy who can block over a guy who can't block. This will be interesting to watch in training camp whether Amaro makes the team or starts,. 

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4 minutes ago, Rangers9 said:

As I recall while Amaro didn't have a good training camp that rookie year and was slow to pick up the offense he got better as the season progressed and was decent as a receiving TE. We also were hearing that he was improving in blocking. I didn't think that last summer before his injury (in the first exhibition game) that Gailey loved him. And originally they felt the injury was short term. I got the feeling that the team and new coaching staff were down on him but I could be wrong about that and.It did open things up for Q and now he has a role and was a starter last year. I'd take a guy who can block over a guy who can't block. This will be interesting to watch in training camp whether Amaro makes the team or starts,. 

Yeah, I think you're right.  Not sure why, but I do remember some reports stating the coaches weren't thrilled with Amaro.  I hope that's overcome this offseason.  Having two weapons like Amaro n Enunwa would be one heck of a luxury.

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4 minutes ago, Mike135 said:

Yeah, I think you're right.  Not sure why, but I do remember some reports stating the coaches weren't thrilled with Amaro.  I hope that's overcame this offseason.  Having two weapons like Amaro n Enunwa would be one heck of a luxury.

You know he had a labrum tear. But I got the feeling (and this happens a lot in the NFL-Parcells was famous for it) that they were down on him because of the injury. And maybe felt he could have played through it. I like Q a lot and think he's an up and coming player and a steal in that infamous Idzik 12 draft. He has to improve as a receiver and Amaro has to improve as a blocker. But I do love Jace giving it to Rex during the off season, something Rex didn't appreciate. I did though.

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12 minutes ago, Mike135 said:

@slats may not have voted, but it sure seems like he's in the Geno camp.

I cast my vote, exactly where you want it. Lol. 

But I wanna be clear, I don't like Geno. I think he lacks leadership capabilities. The silence of the locker room when he got his face broken was deafening. Maybe he learned some real humility on the bench. Maybe he picked up some cues from Fitz, who certainly operated like a professional. But I think Geno's long term best bet is to land somewhere else. 

But like every election, this is a lesser of two evils vote. I see this as a bridge year to Hackenberg or Petty, and I'd rather traverse that bridge saving the $7M+ for players that will be a part of the future. I don't see either Geno or Fitz on this team in 2017. 

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It'll be interesting to see what Gailey does with the TE position. They cut Cumberland but re-signed two guys, Sudfeld (who like Amaro was out for the year) and Kellen Davis, who was a blocking TE and had very few receptions. I think they like Sudfeld and he to me looks like a guy who can play in the league and is more of an all around TE.  Or does he stick with Q and de-emphasize the position in terms of receiving. We had the fewest receptions of any team in terms of the TE position. If Amaro doesn't fit in I could see them getting rid of the guy. 

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5 minutes ago, slats said:

I cast my vote, exactly where you want it. Lol. 

But I wanna be clear, I don't like Geno. I think he lacks leadership capabilities. The silence of the locker room when he got his face broken was deafening. Maybe he learned some real humility on the bench. Maybe he picked up some cues from Fitz, who certainly operated like a professional. But I think Geno's long term best bet is to land somewhere else. 

But like every election, this is a lesser of two evils vote. I see this as a bridge year to Hackenberg or Petty, and I'd rather traverse that bridge saving the $7M+ for players that will be a part of the future. I don't see either Geno or Fitz on this team in 2017. 

Awesome!  :thumbup: I'll take it.  And I agree with much of what you said.  I'm not saying Geno is great and should definitely be our QB for years to come (yet), or even handed the starting job unless earned.

BTW mod votes should count more.

Where ya at @The Crusher?

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Just now, Mike135 said:

Awesome!  :thumbup: I'll take it.  And I agree with much of what you said.  I'm not saying Geno is great and should definitely be our QB for years to come (yet), or even handed the starting job unless earned.

BTW mod votes should count more.

Where ya at @The Crusher?

3rd breakfast.  Where the hell else?

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2 minutes ago, Mike135 said:

Well if ya get a minute before 1st brunch, cast a vote.  We could use all the mod-wisdom we can get.

All that really amounts to is some homoerotic banter in the mod lounge. Trust me, you don't need it here. 

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Kind of amazing to me that fans would want to start Geno. It's not like he wasn't given a chance. The bottom line is how many starts did he get and 29 is enough to evaluate a Qb on. Most NFL Qbs don't get that many starts unless they play well. And many of these fans who voted for Geno I'm assuming wanted Idzik run out of town as soon as possible. And said he was a terrible drafter and talent evaluator. Well that was the pick he got the most criticism for. And saving 7 mil plus at the Qb position by starting a guy who isn't that good but is cheap,. What are going to spend that money on anyways,. Spending it on the Qb position is a no-brainer since it's the most important position on the field. Or you can spend it on 4 backups (on O or D) but we already have backups. In other words if you want to win this year your best usage of that money is at starting Qb if you have someone who can do that job.

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3 minutes ago, Mike135 said:

Well if ya get a minute before 1st brunch, cast a vote.  We could use all the mod-wisdom we can get.

I have no opinion.  I think Geno is a waste of time and Fitzpatrick a waste of money.  At best you are looking at a difference between 4-12 and 7-9.  If you really want me to vote Geno I will.  

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4 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

I have no opinion.  I think Geno is a waste of time and Fitzpatrick a waste of money.  At best you are looking at a difference between 4-12 and 7-9.  If you really want me to vote Geno I will.  

Na, if you really have no preference, guess no vote is better.  

Though pretty sure none of us are thrilled with any of the options.  If you were made GM for a day and had to make the call, what would it be?  If ya would just flip a coin, guess no need to vote.

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As for Geno's apologists who give the same excuses that Mark's fans gave us for years. You know it was the coaching staff's fault, his teammates, etc. Well first of all they rag on Marty as OC. Well the guy is proven good OC but he can't make chicken salad out of CS. And he's currently QB coach of the Ravens a team who doesn't hire fools or incompetents. Also his Qb coach was David Lee, one of the best in the business. So what do you want anyways,. As for Tex, of course he wants us to start Geno. He also wants us to lose all of our games. Thanks for the advice, partner, but no thanks. 

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1 hour ago, slats said:

He came back from that benching in 2014 to play in 6 games. His numbers over those six weeks: 134 attempts, 88 completions, 1155 yards, 6 TDs, 3 ints. That works out to a 65.6% comp rate, 4.4% TD rate, 2.2% int rate, 8.6 yards per attempt, and a 98.3 passer rating. Those are good numbers over a six game stretch. In fact, the only number worse than Fitz in his miracle 2015 run is the TD rate, where Fitz wins 5.5 to 4.4. Otherwise? Geno wins the int rate 2.2 to 2.7, comp rate 65.6 to 59.6, passer rating 98.3 to 88, and blows him away in yards per attempt 8.6 to 6.9. 

That was his response to being sat for a few games, with Rex, Marty, and no Marshall. So yeah, I think he can potentially respond very well after sitting a year with Gailey, Marshall, Forte, etc. 

Geno is under contract, Fitz will cost a minimum of $7M to join the team. I just don't think Fitz brings $7M+ value over what Geno can potentially do. Indeed, what Geno has already done over a stretch of time. 

lol @ genos 22 pass attempts per game

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2 hours ago, Villain The Foe said:

Ryan Fitzpatrick, being the closest he has even been to a possible playoff birth, threw 3 INT's in the fourth quarter to end the Jets season. 

 

That was his 112th game of his career. Isnt it time the NFL learned from its mistakes given that this is Fitzpatrick's 6th team in 11 years? 

is that you, joewilly?

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1 hour ago, Mike135 said:

Na, if you really have no preference, guess no vote is better.  

Though pretty sure none of us are thrilled with any of the options.  If you were made GM for a day and had to make the call, what would it be?  If ya would just flip a coin, guess no need to vote.

For now I guess the one that's actually on the team?

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