Sam's Last Stand

[Jetsfan80]

9 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

He played 5 of the 6 worst defenses in the league to end the season last year, and his stats were still uninspiring.  @Jetsfan80 posted a nice breakdown at one point.  Maybe he'll re-share.

Again, we get that the talent around him is substandard.  How does that account for his problems being identical to those he had while at USC, when he fairly frequently was leading the more talented team?

Maybe, just maybe, we all got rock-hard boners from the Rose Bowl, and he's just another USC QB bust in the long line of USC QB busts, who looks the part, is a good athlete, but simply can't play the position well enough to do it at the next level.

 

I have no idea where I posted it or I would, lol.  Basically even when you extrapolate Darnold's best 8 games from last season, he would still have been a middle of the pack QB, statistically (comp %, YPA, TD/INT ratio, QB Rating), when compared to the rest of the league's QB's.

Hence my argument that Darnold's ceiling is Andy Dalton.  

[ZachEY]

2 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

agreed. although, it looks like they are giving Samsome more rope. and, really?, fine.  i get it. but it is double edged.

he could really kill any chance of getting trade value, as well as maybe increase that value.

as it is.... we gave 4 picksfor the bad version of andy dalton.

No reason not to give Sam Darnold the rest of this season, re: rope, because, there's no upside to playing Flacco, and unless you think Morgan is ready, there's no upside there.

Let him finish out the year, and then, we move forward.  Maybe someone will give us a 3 for him, should we land Lawrence/Fields.

[batman10023]

8 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

QBASE pegs which QB's will bust at about a 75 % clip.  Find me any scout or front office who nails it with their projections at a rate even close to that.  

They whiffed on Josh Allen (who sucked his first 2 seasons, mind you).  So did just about everyone.  What he's doing in Year 3 is historically unprecedented.

Look at the rest of their low score guys and you'll find they have been highly accurate over time.  

probably makes sense for some of the low budget teams to just fire the scouting department and sign up for QBASE database.

i just didn't recall hearing this much negativity around Darnold when he was coming out.

[ZachEY]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

I have no idea where I posted it or I would, lol.  Basically even when you extrapolate Darnold's best 8 games from last season, he would still have been a middle of the pack QB, statistically (comp %, YPA, TD/INT ratio, QB Rating), when compared to the rest of the league's QB's.

Hence my argument that Darnold's ceiling is Andy Dalton.  

Yes, and the majority of those stats came against 5/6 of the NFL's worst defenses, and the Bills in week 17 resting starters.

[THE BARON]

1 hour ago, SAM SAM HE'S OUR MAN said:

Now that he's got back all his offensive weapons , Sam better produce . Or he will be sleeping with the fishes .

Save Sam's trade value.  Keep him sidelined until the trade deadline so he don't get damaged.  Let Joe get us every loss we need to ensure Trevor Lawrence becomes a Jet.  

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, batman10023 said:

probably makes sense for some of the low budget teams to just fire the scouting department and sign up for QBASE database.

i just didn't recall hearing this much negativity around Darnold when he was coming out.

No one is saying traditional scouting needs to be dismissed.  Only that QBASE is a valuable tool (one of several, I imagine) that should be factored in when evaluating prospects.  The eye test can lie.  Numbers usually don't.  

I remember one scout saying Darnold was like a "cow on ice" when it came to his footwork.  Others talked about his lack of collegiate experience and turnover-prone play.  If you didn't see this negativity you just weren't paying attention.

The 2 most important factors for a QB's projected abilities are # of college starts and college performance when adjusted for competition level and strength of your teammates.  Darnold started too few games and didn't perform well enough to suggest he was a home run pick.  Far from it.  

So many people put so much stock into Darnold's Rose Bowl performance that they tended to ignore these red flags.  I was one of them.  I had Darnold as my top QB on the wishlist that year.

[Losmeister]

6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

I have no idea where I posted it or I would, lol.  Basically even when you extrapolate Darnold's best 8 games from last season, he would still have been a middle of the pack QB, statistically (comp %, YPA, TD/INT ratio, QB Rating), when compared to the rest of the league's QB's.

Hence my argument that Darnold's ceiling is Andy Dalton.  

 

avg qbr in those games 54 ...   which is about 19th in the NFL for 2019

[genot]

11 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

agreed. although, it looks like they are giving Samsome more rope. and, really?, fine.  i get it. but it is double edged.

he could really kill any chance of getting trade value, as well as maybe increase that value.

as it is.... we gave 4 picksfor the bad version of andy dalton.

Dalton is a 10 yr vet who's played on Bengals teams who had a boatload more talent than what the Jet's have had the last two years. How are they comparable.

[ZachEY]

9 minutes ago, batman10023 said:

probably makes sense for some of the low budget teams to just fire the scouting department and sign up for QBASE database.

i just didn't recall hearing this much negativity around Darnold when he was coming out.

In June, a group of NFL personnel men stood on the sideline of Nicholls State University, having made the annual pilgrimage to watch the next wave of quarterback talent at the Manning Passing Academy. Watching from afar – and with players lacking names on their shirts – one player with prototypical tools and a lofty draft status began drawing steady criticism.

“Who’s the kid with the big windup?” one longtime NFL evaluator asked, settling among a group of friends and focusing on a reddish blonde camp counselor with a zippy arm and ideal frame.

“That’s [Sam] Darnold,” an NFC personnel man answered.

The two raised their eyebrows at each other. Darnold’s delivery was unquestionably long, dropping the football down and backward with regularity. It was adding fractions of time to his delivery, separating the USC star from the crowd based on a concerning mechanical flaw.

“You can have him,” the NFC personnel man concluded within the group. “Loopy motion. Bad face. Overrated.”

[Losmeister]

6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

So many people put so much stock into Darnold's Rose Bowl performance

this is the single most influencing thing re: Sam.

also, seeing his name among the top prospects all the time is what folks remember. not the actual list of pros and cons.

this dude predicted it it from the get

Whether or not Darnold achieves success at the next level remains to be seen, but there are undoubtedly significant problems in this gunslinger’s arsenal. Plenty of teams in the top 10 need a quarterback and someone will surely bet on his moxie and accuracy to become their franchise cornerstone. It’s a losing bet however and in turn, a colossal mistake.

https://sports.yahoo.com/sam-darnold-simply-next-usc-quarterback-flop-nfl-023025841.html

[Sonny Werblin]

33 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

I don't think it's "radical."  But, it's certainly not correct.  Sam Darnold has a long way to go to prove he can handle a 16 game NFL season, before he even proves he's even an average NFL QB.

Guy had a high bust potential coming out, and... he's busting.  If you believe one of these top QBs is better, you take them.

That should go for every position. If you ever have the opportunity to choose a player at a position you believe is much better than the one you have, you take him. QB, RB, LB, C any position. But this is the luxury the well put together teams have. When they are not upgrading at a starting position in the first 3 rounds, they are building depth and a pipeline of back-ups to feed a system that replaces players who leave to be overpaid after there first contract expires.

Sadly, the Jets are not a well put together team. The Jets need upgrades and depth EVERYWHERE. So, JD and his staff have to do the high end math of figuring out where the team would stand 3 years from now if he stood pat at QB and cashed in on the picks he could get for Lawrence. All of this depends on the Jets internal evaluation of Darnold and Lawrence and how much of an upgrade Lawrence would be as compared to the team-wide upgrade presented by the picks and players trading the Lawrence pick could bring. 

We all have our own views of Darnold vs Lawrence vs Fields (and sometimes these views seem pretty "emotional") but the only view that will dictate what happens in the draft is JDs view, and frankly I have no idea what his view is. If I was a betting man (and I'm not because I am admittedly right only a little more often than I'm wrong), I'd say JD goes for the method that gets him to an entire team overhaul quicker. I sincerely believe that his is not a QB as savior kind of guy and believes that QB play is dictated by the talent around him. I totally acknowledge I can be wrong, but heck its not like I am going totally out on a limb like SAR believing Gase is a great HC.  

[Losmeister]

5 minutes ago, genot said:

Dalton is a 10 yr vet who's played on Bengals teams who had a boatload more talent than what the Jet's have had the last two years. How are they comparable.

by how they lay when the talent level is poor. i said the bad version of dalton, not the good one.

[ZachEY]

3 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

That should go for every position. If you ever have the opportunity to choose a player at a position you believe is much better than the one you have, you take him. QB, RB, LB, C any position. But this is the luxury the well put together teams have. When they are not upgrading at a starting position in the first 3 rounds, they are building depth and a pipeline of back-ups to feed a system that replaces players who leave to be overpaid after there first contract expires.

Sadly, the Jets are not a well put together team. The Jets need upgrades and depth EVERYWHERE. So, JD and his staff have to do the high end math of figuring out where the team would stand 3 years from now if he stood pat at QB and cashed in on the picks he could get for Lawrence. All of this depends on the Jets internal evaluation of Darnold and Lawrence and how much of an upgrade Lawrence would be as compared to the team-wide upgrade presented by the picks and players trading the Lawrence pick could bring. 

We all have our own views of Darnold vs Lawrence vs Fields (and sometimes these views seem pretty "emotional") but the only view that will dictate what happens in the draft is JDs view, and frankly I have no idea what his view is. If I was a betting man (and I'm not because I am admittedly right only a little more often than I'm wrong), I'd say JD goes for the method that gets him to an entire team overhaul quicker. I sincerely believe that his is not a QB as savior kind of guy and believes that QB play is dictated by the talent around him. I totally acknowledge I can be wrong, but heck its not like I am going totally out on a limb like SAR believing Gase is a great HC.  

Said it yesterday in conversation with genot, but I agree there's logic to assembling the team with a trade down.  However, part of that trade down still needs to include Fields (or maybe Lance) because Darnold ain't it.

That said, will JD hang his career on being the guy that passed on Lawrence?

What you say is true, you should always be looking to improve, but it does discount how much more important the QB is in today's NFL than any other position.  Night and day.

[Jetsfan80]

13 minutes ago, genot said:

Dalton is a 10 yr vet who's played on Bengals teams who had a boatload more talent than what the Jet's have had the last two years. How are they comparable.

Because its possible to evaluate QB's even when the talent around him is low.  This idea that Darnold's entire career is a wash is getting tiresome.  That's not how the real world works, nor is it how it SHOULD work.  

Geno Smith sucked with bad talent in New York.  Guess what, he still sucks elsewhere with better talent.  Very few QB's who suck become competent or good when paired with a good team. 

No one expects Darnold to put up even league average numbers with this team.  But no one should just accept bottom-of-the-league numbers for 3 years, either, regardless of the circumstances.  He was a # 3 overall pick.  QB's tend to be picked by bad teams.  Good QB's rise above their circumstances.  Darnold hasn't. 

[ZachEY]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Because its possible to evaluate QB's even when the talent around him is low.  This idea that Darnold's entire career is a wash is getting tiresome.  That's not how the real world works, nor is it how it SHOULD work.  

Geno Smith sucked with bad talent in New York.  Guess what, he still sucks elsewhere with better talent.  

Still need to see what we have in hackenberg tho

[Jetsfan80]

38 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

Yeah but he went 6-2 one time so if you throw out everything else out he’s basically in top half of NFL QBs If you throw enough of them out. 

Allllll the outliers

[genot]

6 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

That should go for every position. If you ever have the opportunity to choose a player at a position you believe is much better than the one you have, you take him. QB, RB, LB, C any position. But this is the luxury the well put together teams have. When they are not upgrading at a starting position in the first 3 rounds, they are building depth and a pipeline of back-ups to feed a system that replaces players who leave to be overpaid after there first contract expires.

Sadly, the Jets are not a well put together team. The Jets need upgrades and depth EVERYWHERE. So, JD and his staff have to do the high end math of figuring out where the team would stand 3 years from now if he stood pat at QB and cashed in on the picks he could get for Lawrence. All of this depends on the Jets internal evaluation of Darnold and Lawrence and how much of an upgrade Lawrence would be as compared to the team-wide upgrade presented by the picks and players trading the Lawrence pick could bring. 

We all have our own views of Darnold vs Lawrence vs Fields (and sometimes these views seem pretty "emotional") but the only view that will dictate what happens in the draft is JDs view, and frankly I have no idea what his view is. If I was a betting man (and I'm not because I am admittedly right only a little more often than I'm wrong), I'd say JD goes for the method that gets him to an entire team overhaul quicker. I sincerely believe that his is not a QB as savior kind of guy and believes that QB play is dictated by the talent around him. I totally acknowledge I can be wrong, but heck its not like I am going totally out on a limb like SAR believing Gase is a great HC.  

A lengthy but sober post. I think posters,so sick of losing teams, are like people with empty lives looking for the second coming. TL. The savior. He probably will be a better pro than Sam. Thats not a given, though. Football is a team sport. If you dont have the qualty supporting cast. You won't win. Too many holes on this team to turn down getting a kings ransom for TL.

[peekskill68]

I have these circular arguments with myself - Can you evaluate Sam with these weaponz?  Can you evaluate Sam with Gase at the helm?  Bottom line = talent is talent and it will raise the level of those around it.  Sam has not been able to do that...

[Sonny Werblin]

2 hours ago, TeddEY said:

Said it yesterday in conversation with genot, but I agree there's logic to assembling the team with a trade down.  However, part of that trade down still needs to include Fields (or maybe Lance) because Darnold ain't it.

That said, will JD hang his career on being the guy that passed on Lawrence?

What you say is true, you should always be looking to improve, but it does discount how much more important the QB is in today's NFL than any other position.  Night and day.

It so sucks the Jets are always chasing a QB as if that would somehow cure all of their problems. I don't know if Sam's the answer, or really if any QB available this year is the answer. I do know they are more likely to find a QB who can be successful on the Jets if they make the rest of them team better. What would Russell Wilson or Dak Prescott have looked like if the Jets drafted them rather than Seahawks and Cowboys? I just feel like the good GM's look at a rebuild and believe the QB is one of the last players you add to the rebuild. Which rookies in Sam's class are doing best? Should we be surprised that they were added to teams as kind of the final piece to a puzzle, rather than the foundation that you build around? 

[ZachEY]

7 minutes ago, genot said:

A lengthy but sober post. I think posters,so sick of losing teams, are like people with empty lives looking for the second coming. TL. The savior. He probably will be a better pro than Sam. Thats not a given, though. Football is a team sport. If you dont have the qualty supporting cast. You won't win. Too many holes on this team to turn down getting a kings ransom for TL.

The only people on jet nation dot com who have used the term savior around Lawrence have done so as part of a defense for Darnold.  Those who want to replace Darnold know that just bringing in a better QB doesn't make the team a contender.  Yet, Darnold fans continue to make this "Lawerence is not the Savior" strawman argument.

[KRL]

Absolutely moronic that we are in the position of possibly giving up on Darnold
in his third year:

- Poor roster construction
- Poor OLine
- Revolving door at the skill positions
- Poor coaching

Were outside his control, but Darnold's inability to stay on the field for an entire
season doesn't help his cause.  Its a shame because Darnold has the perfect "dead face"
personality to be the Jet QB with all the noise that surrounds this team.  Darnold and
Lawrence in my view look similar in their college careers:

- Both ran spread offenses out of the pistol
- Tons of RPO's which freezes LB's
- Tons of quick outside WR screens
- Tons of quick slants with plenty of YAC
- Strong, accurate arms
- Occasional designed QB runs

The three differences that are in Lawrence's favor at this point are:

- He has a more textbook delivery than Darnold did coming out
- He doesn't have the ball security issues that Darnold did in the pocket
- He has better deep ball accuracy

Douglas is going to have HUGE decisions coming up:

- Who is the next HC?
- Do you keep Darnold and trade the rights to Lawrence for a ton?  Probably a 2021 
#1, #2, #4 and a 2022 #1, which would allow you to build around Darnold and revamp
the roster
- Do you trade Darnold (probably for a 2021 #2) draft Lawrence and ensure he walks
into a properly constructed team in his rookie year?  

[Jetsfan80]

15 minutes ago, genot said:

A lengthy but sober post. I think posters,so sick of losing teams, are like people with empty lives looking for the second coming. TL. The savior. He probably will be a better pro than Sam. Thats not a given, though. Football is a team sport. If you dont have the qualty supporting cast. You won't win. Too many holes on this team to turn down getting a kings ransom for TL.

We have 4 first round picks over the next 2 years, plus two 3rds and two 5ths in 2021 (in total, 8 picks in the first 5 rounds), and will most certainly add more picks with additional trades and draft night trade downs.  We'll have enough picks to draft a QB AND build a roster around him. 

Meanwhile, a new coach will do wonders for getting more out of the roster being built.  

If you're a team needing a QB (which we are), you have a top 3 pick, and your front office/scouting department likes a QB on the board, you take the QB.  Now is not the time to "get cute".  If Lawrence is deemed to be a franchise QB (and not even a top one, just an above average or good one), there is no package of picks that would make it worthwhile to move down.  You'd just be kicking the can down the road at the QB position.

[Barry McCockinner]

 

[ZachEY]

20 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

It so sucks the Jets are always chasing the a QB as if that would somehow cure all of their problems. I don't know if Sam's the answer, or really if any QB available this year is the answer. I do know they are more likely to find a QB who can be successful on the Jets if they make the rest of them team better. What would Russell Wilson or Dak Prescott have looked like if the Jets drafted them rather than Seahawks and Cowboys? I just feel like the good GM's look at a rebuild and believe the QB is one of the last players you add to the rebuild. Which rookies in Sam's class are doing best? Should we be surprised that they were added to teams as kind of the final piece to a puzzle, rather than the foundation that you build around? 

It would be awesome if you can find a mid/late round Gem when your team is already strong.  

But, I think that this becomes harder and harder.  I don't want to get too into identity politics, but I think the league is becoming more accepting of QBs who look like Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott, and they're not going to drop the way they used to.  The best QBs are still found at the top of the draft, and I think this will increasingly become the case.  Wilson had a monster QBASE, and Dak's was better than Darnold.

The issue is, we'll be sitting at 1, if we continue on this path, and there will be a consensus #1 QB if things continue on that path.  I don't think there's a scenario in which Joe Douglas passes.

EDIT TO ADD: 

It's also worth considering that part of the reason (not all, but a meaningful part) that Sam Darnold lacks talent around him is that he cost us 4 high draft picks.  Macc getting every draft pick he made, wrong, is the biggest part.  But, Darnold needed to be good enough to overcome that trade.  With Lawrence, if the cards line up, we'll be getting him for 1 pick, not 4.

[Losmeister]

for me TL talk is silly cos I still feel we wont pick #1.

that my stance until its a mathematical certainty one way or the other....

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

for me TL talk is silly cos I still feel we wont pick #1.

that my stance until its a mathematical certainty one way or the other....

I mean, I guess.  The truth is we're the only winless team at this point in the season (with no end in sight) and TL is the consensus # 1 pick.  It's not lunacy to be talking about it now. 

And unfortunately there hasn't been much else to discuss.  Though the good news there is Justin Fields' season gets started tomorrow.  

[SAM SAM HE'S OUR MAN]

1 hour ago, CanadienJetsFan said:

I think half the members here will commit suicide.

[slimjasi]

1 hour ago, batman10023 said:

if the jets get the first pick it's a no brainer.  no GM is going to pass no TL.   what do the jets do if we end up picking 4-6 like normal?

I'd expand the question to 2-6. 

Does JD like Fields or Lance over Sam? That is the big question to me. 

[Chrebetfan80]

2 hours ago, CanadienJetsFan said:

What if he plays well enough to win a few games hence taking us out of the running for # 1? I think half the members here will commit suicide.

The season ain't over just yet.

Darnold is fighting for his career and so is Gase.

Should be interesting.

This is contingent on the way he wins.  If it's absolutely ugly and he limps his way to wins, its going to be bad around here. 

 

If he flat out plays extremely well and outright wins games because of his decision making and arm.  Then its fine. 

[peebag]

2 hours ago, TeddEY said:

You're too focused on overall outcome.  No one (reasonable) is expecting Sam Darnold to lead this offense to 30 points per game.  No one (reasonable) is expecting the Jets to be contenders right now.

But, even the scrubs on this team are still world class athletes.  Sometimes, they get open.  What does Sam Darnold do then?  Often times, certainly more than last year, the offensive line holds it's own.  What does Sam Darnold do then?

The fact is, he still throws inaccurately.  He still makes terrible decisions.  He still throws off his back foot.  He still turns the ball over too much.  He still holds the ball too long.  He looks like exactly the player he was at USC, and we all hoped the bad stuff would go away.  It didn't.

He essentially makes a handful of highlight reel plays per season, but has never shows improvement in his ability to be a Quarterback.  He's Brett Favre with a mediocre arm, and Brett Favre with a mediocre arm isn't a HOF QB, he's a tire salesman.

Be sure to save a copy of this so that in 3 years you can replace Sam's name with Trevor Sunshine's name.

Wash, Rinse, Repeat.

[Jet25]

Its laughable that people think we're going to beat the Bills all because Darnold is back.

[Losmeister]

42 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I mean, I guess.  The truth is we're the only winless team at this point in the season (with no end in sight) and TL is the consensus # 1 pick.  It's not lunacy to be talking about it now. 

And unfortunately there hasn't been much else to discuss.  Though the good news there is Justin Fields' season gets started tomorrow.  

thats why i qualified it, FOR ME...

just my idiosyncs kicking in...  of course, JD needsa think about all that stuff....

[Welp]

2 hours ago, TeddEY said:

In June, a group of NFL personnel men stood on the sideline of Nicholls State University, having made the annual pilgrimage to watch the next wave of quarterback talent at the Manning Passing Academy. Watching from afar – and with players lacking names on their shirts – one player with prototypical tools and a lofty draft status began drawing steady criticism.

“Who’s the kid with the big windup?” one longtime NFL evaluator asked, settling among a group of friends and focusing on a reddish blonde camp counselor with a zippy arm and ideal frame.

“That’s [Sam] Darnold,” an NFC personnel man answered.

The two raised their eyebrows at each other. Darnold’s delivery was unquestionably long, dropping the football down and backward with regularity. It was adding fractions of time to his delivery, separating the USC star from the crowd based on a concerning mechanical flaw.

“You can have him,” the NFC personnel man concluded within the group. “Loopy motion. Bad face. Overrated.”

LMAO this sounds like something that clueless fool Gettleman would say

[batman10023]

39 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

I'd expand the question to 2-6. 

Does JD like Fields or Lance over Sam? That is the big question to me. 

think that's a better way of looking at it.  

but to be honest - if the Jets are picking 2nd we are most likely taking a QB.  and probably 3rd as well.  

 

[Icer]

I'm glad that hes playing at least. Nothing worse than arguing about whether or not hes good enough to keep over Lawrence when hes on the sideline with his annual timeout