Sam's Last Stand

[SAM SAM HE'S OUR MAN]

Now that he's got back all his offensive weapons , Sam better produce . Or he will be sleeping with the fishes .

[Icer]

[Adoni Beast]

To be honest, even if he plays out well...if we’re still picking 1st, then he’s probably gone anyway.

[SAR I]

Be advised that on Sunday it seems Sam's got some weather to contend with-  59 degrees, sunny, 3 mph wind.

SAR I

[Larz]

Stand?  Hope he doesn’t get hurt lol

[genot]

10 minutes ago, Adoni Beast said:

To be honest, even if he plays out well...if we’re still picking 1st, then he’s probably gone anyway.

Would be just another colossal blunder,which the Jet's are famous for

[ZachEY]

11 minutes ago, genot said:

Would be just another colossal blunder,which the Jet's are famous for

Didn't you go down with the SS Maccagnan?

[JetsFanatic]

28 minutes ago, SAR I said:

Be advised that on Sunday it seems Sam's got some weather to contend with-  59 degrees, sunny, 3 mph wind.

SAR I

That’s a January day at USC!!

[SAM SAM HE'S OUR MAN]

30 minutes ago, SAR I said:

Be advised that on Sunday it seems Sam's got some weather to contend with-  59 degrees, sunny, 3 mph wind.

SAR I

[genot]

9 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

Didn't you go down with the SS Maccagnan?

Im still here. Mac isn't. Lets not get back into that s...I don't think my view on what we should do with Sam and the first pick is a radical one. You don't neither. Do you?

[ZachEY]

2 minutes ago, genot said:

Im still here. Mac isn't. Lets not get back into that s...I don't think my view on what we should do with Sam and the first pick is a radical one. You don't neither. Do you?

I don't think it's "radical."  But, it's certainly not correct.  Sam Darnold has a long way to go to prove he can handle a 16 game NFL season, before he even proves he's even an average NFL QB.

Guy had a high bust potential coming out, and... he's busting.  If you believe one of these top QBs is better, you take them.

[genot]

1 minute ago, TeddEY said:

I don't think it's "radical."  But, it's certainly not correct.  Sam Darnold has a long way to go to prove he can handle a 16 game NFL season, before he even proves he's even an average NFL QB.

Guy had a high bust potential coming out, and... he's busting.  If you believe one of these top QBs is better, you take them.

No QB is that good that he can elevate a offensive roster of scrubs. He's been in the league for two years. Too soon to press the reset button at QB.

[playtowinthegame]

I'm worried about Sam beating the counterfeit Bills this weekend. Not joking around. 

 

Bills cost us Bosa in 2018, and now they could cost us Sunshine.

[Bruce Harper]

54 minutes ago, SAM SAM HE'S OUR MAN said:

Now that he's got back all his offensive weapons , Sam better produce . Or he will be sleeping with the fishes .

Personally, I think he should be allowed to live, regardless of the outcome.

[ZachEY]

8 minutes ago, genot said:

No QB is that good that he can elevate a offensive roster of scrubs. He's been in the league for two years. Too soon to press the reset button at QB.

You're too focused on overall outcome.  No one (reasonable) is expecting Sam Darnold to lead this offense to 30 points per game.  No one (reasonable) is expecting the Jets to be contenders right now.

But, even the scrubs on this team are still world class athletes.  Sometimes, they get open.  What does Sam Darnold do then?  Often times, certainly more than last year, the offensive line holds it's own.  What does Sam Darnold do then?

The fact is, he still throws inaccurately.  He still makes terrible decisions.  He still throws off his back foot.  He still turns the ball over too much.  He still holds the ball too long.  He looks like exactly the player he was at USC, and we all hoped the bad stuff would go away.  It didn't.

He essentially makes a handful of highlight reel plays per season, but has never shows improvement in his ability to be a Quarterback.  He's Brett Favre with a mediocre arm, and Brett Favre with a mediocre arm isn't a HOF QB, he's a tire salesman.

[batman10023]

12 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

I don't think it's "radical."  But, it's certainly not correct.  Sam Darnold has a long way to go to prove he can handle a 16 game NFL season, before he even proves he's even an average NFL QB.

Guy had a high bust potential coming out, and... he's busting.  If you believe one of these top QBs is better, you take them.

very few people were saying he had a high bust potential when coming out.  which top draft folks said this?

[ScouserJet]

Yeah i think he's absolutely toast now, but I'll still come on here and see the fans moaning that we didn't get 300+ yards against KC.

[ZachEY]

Just now, batman10023 said:

very few people were saying he had a high bust potential when coming out.  which top draft folks said this?

Football Outsiders.

QBASE Bust Potential: 51.9%

[rangerous]

there are still a lot of things that need to go wrong (or maybe right depending on perspective) before darnold is no longer qb of this team.  first and foremost the jets have to perform bad enough to get the no. 1 pick.  then after that lawrence still has to declare for the draft.  and he may still decide to pull an elllway and force a trade.

[BigRy56]

All the kid has to do is win a couple of games. Take us out of the #1 pick and he’s starting for us next season 

[CanadienJetsFan]

58 minutes ago, Adoni Beast said:

To be honest, even if he plays out well...if we’re still picking 1st, then he’s probably gone anyway.

What if he plays well enough to win a few games hence taking us out of the running for # 1? I think half the members here will commit suicide.

The season ain't over just yet.

Darnold is fighting for his career and so is Gase.

Should be interesting.

[ZachEY]

1 minute ago, BigRy56 said:

All the kid has to do is win a couple of games. Take us out of the #1 pick and he’s starting for us next season 

And, there isn't a worse scenario for Jets fans today.

2-14 or 3-13 going into Darnold's 4th year.

[genot]

3 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

You're too focused on overall outcome.  No one (reasonable) is expecting Sam Darnold to lead this offense to 30 points per game.  No one (reasonable) is expecting the Jets to be contenders right now.

But, even the scrubs on this team are still world class athletes.  Sometimes, they get open.  What does Sam Darnold do then?  Often times, certainly more than last year, the offensive line holds it's own.  What does Sam Darnold do then?

The fact is, he still throws inaccurately.  He still makes terrible decisions.  He still throws off his back foot.  He still turns the ball over too much.  He still holds the ball too long.  He looks like exactly the player he was at USC, and we all hoped the bad stuff would go away.  It didn't.

He essentially makes a handful of highlight reel plays per season, but has never shows improvement in his ability to be a Quarterback.  He's Brett Favre with a mediocre arm, and Brett Favre with a mediocre arm isn't a HOF QB, he's a tire salesman.

He had 7 more touchdown passes than interceptions last year. Against NE and the Jaguars if you remember,he didn't have the time too breathe let alone drop back and throw the football. We cant run the football,we've had 100 different o- lineman, no TE worth a dime,to be a QB's safety valve. Everything you said in your post is accurate with regards to his issues. The problem i have with your view is that we haven't had the talent or stability to properly evaluate him. It's too quick to press that reset button.

[Adoni Beast]

1 minute ago, CanadienJetsFan said:

What if he plays well enough to win a few games hence taking us out of the running for # 1? I think half the members here will commit suicide.

The season ain't over just yet.

Darnold is fighting for his career and so is Gase.

Should be interesting.

Yeah that’s monkey in the wrench.

- I’m a big Darnold fan. I think he can be a top 10 QB.

- I’m a bigger Trevor Lawrence fan. I think he can be elite top 1 or 2.

- If Sam can look good - win some games - with this roster and coach and puts us out of the running for the 1st pick, well then Sam has more than earned his stripes and with the right coach and better roster the future can be bright.

[batman10023]

6 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

Football Outsiders.

QBASE Bust Potential: 51.9%

this is a quant model.  Josh Allen had a higher bust potential.  Darnold was roughly in the same percentage as Rosen.

even the authors own words

 But if I were the analytics director for an NFL franchise, I would feel no need to disagree with a scouting director who placed Darnold ahead of Rosen.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/qbase-2018

which non analytics draft guru said Darold would be a bust.  the vast majority did not say this.

 

[Jetsfan80]

21 minutes ago, genot said:

No QB is that good that he can elevate a offensive roster of scrubs. He's been in the league for two years. Too soon to press the reset button at QB.

The Cardinals gave up on Josh Rosen after 13 games.

30 games is more than enough to say Darnold isn't the guy.  

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, genot said:

He had 7 more touchdown passes than interceptions last year. 

This isn't impressive.  And it was actually 6 (19/13).

He also fumbled 11 times last season.  I don't recall how many he lost, but that's a lot.

[The Crusher]

26 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

I don't think it's "radical."  But, it's certainly not correct.  Sam Darnold has a long way to go to prove he can handle a 16 game NFL season, before he even proves he's even an average NFL QB.

Guy had a high bust potential coming out, and... he's busting.  If you believe one of these top QBs is better, you take them.

Yeah but he went 6-2 one time so if you throw out everything else out he’s basically in top half of NFL QBs If you throw enough of them out. 

 

 

 

 

[batman10023]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

The Cardinals gave up on Josh Rosen after 13 games.

30 games is more than enough to say Darnold isn't the guy.  

if the jets get the first pick it's a no brainer.  no GM is going to pass no TL.   what do the jets do if we end up picking 4-6 like normal?

[ZachEY]

Just now, genot said:

He had 7 more touchdown passes than interceptions last year. Against NE and the Jaguars if you remember,he didn't have the time too breathe let alone drop back and throw the football. We cant run the football,we've had 100 different o- lineman, no TE worth a dime,to be a QB's safety valve. Everything you said in your post is accurate with regards to his issues. The problem i have with your view is that we haven't had the talent or stability to properly evaluate him. It's too quick to press that reset button.

He played 5 of the 6 worst defenses in the league to end the season last year, and his stats were still uninspiring.  @Jetsfan80 posted a nice breakdown at one point.  Maybe he'll re-share.

Again, we get that the talent around him is substandard.  How does that account for his problems being identical to those he had while at USC, when he fairly frequently was leading the more talented team?

Maybe, just maybe, we all got rock-hard boners from the Rose Bowl, and he's just another USC QB bust in the long line of USC QB busts, who looks the part, is a good athlete, but simply can't play the position well enough to do it at the next level.

[Jetsfan80]

5 minutes ago, batman10023 said:

this is a quant model.  Josh Allen had a higher bust potential.  Darnold was roughly in the same percentage as Rosen.

even the authors own words

 But if I were the analytics director for an NFL franchise, I would feel no need to disagree with a scouting director who placed Darnold ahead of Rosen.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/qbase-2018

which non analytics draft guru said Darold would be a bust.  the vast majority did not say this.

 

 

QBASE pegs which QB's will bust at about a 75 % clip.  Find me any scout or front office who nails it with their projections at a rate even close to that.  

They whiffed on Josh Allen (who sucked his first 2 seasons, mind you).  So did just about everyone.  What he's doing in Year 3 is historically unprecedented.

Look at the rest of their low score guys and you'll find they have been highly accurate over time.  

[genot]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

The Cardinals gave up on Josh Rosen after 13 games.

30 games is more than enough to say Darnold isn't the guy.  

They got rid of Rosen because  his play wasn't good enough to justify keeping such an ass... 

[ZachEY]

4 minutes ago, batman10023 said:

this is a quant model.  Josh Allen had a higher bust potential.  Darnold was roughly in the same percentage as Rosen.

even the authors own words

 But if I were the analytics director for an NFL franchise, I would feel no need to disagree with a scouting director who placed Darnold ahead of Rosen.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/qbase-2018

which non analytics draft guru said Darold would be a bust.  the vast majority did not say this.

 

The fact that he's still over 50% matters, and the ordering of the QBs doesn't necessarily matter for the sake of the conversation.  I think everyone would agree Allen was more likely to bust than Darnold.  That it didn't happen that way doesn't change that it was more likely.  The Nate Silver argument is in here somewhere...

I don't have the non-analytics takes lined up.  I remember hearing a number of concerns at the time re: turnovers, but certainly the prevailing opinion was that he'd go number 1 to Cleveland.

I'm struggling to understand though, why we'd dismiss the 50+% bust rate via an analytic model?

[Losmeister]

6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

The Cardinals gave up on Josh Rosen after 13 games.

30 games is more than enough to say Darnold isn't the guy.  

agreed. although, it looks like they are giving Samsome more rope. and, really?, fine.  i get it. but it is double edged.

he could really kill any chance of getting trade value, as well as maybe increase that value.

as it is.... we gave 4 picksfor the bad version of andy dalton.

[ZachEY]

6 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

Yeah but he went 6-2 one time so if you throw out everything else out he’s basically in top half of NFL QBs If you throw enough of them out. 

 

 

 

 

Funny.  But, scary how close to the truth this joke is.

"If we just throw out all the bad stuff, and keep all of the good stuff, he's really good."

Fans, surely not just Jet fans, it's human nature, react this way when emotionally invested.  We see the 10% good that Darnold is, and say, "See, this is the real him." And, act like the 90% bad is the aberrant stuff, with a litany of excuses.