The Darnold + Wilson option

[Adoni Beast]

For the “Keep Darnold & Trade Down” crowd (and I don’t say that facetiously because thats a decent Plan B).

What is your threshold for a return to keep Sam?

What if all that us being offered are two 2nds and a 3rd from Atlanta? Or three 2nds from Philly?

Is that enough to keep Sam + trade down? To me, it wouldn’t even be close to enough and I don’t think we’re going to get the haul that we all assume will be there.

[doitny]

what is wrong with you guys.

what if Sam beats out Wilson for the job? JD just busted on the 2OA pick....hes done. what do you think is going to happen? JD will be able to get a big trade for Wilson? no, hes lucky if he gets a 2nd rd pick like Arizona got for Rosen.

and Wilson will be JDs pick. Sam is not. if Sam fails it wasnt JDs guy. Wilson is. JD is going to want to help Wilson, not Sam succede. and that includes not having a win all fight for your job competition. who does that to a 2OA QB .

sorry but even if we trade Sam for a bucket of footballs, in the long run its better for Wilson, for us. Sam cannot be here looking over Wilson shoulder. the pressure on Wilson would be immense. there would be no pressure on Sam since he was most likely gone anyway.

[nyjbuddy]

2 hours ago, Phillyjet said:

As someone who would lean toward keeping Darnold and building up the rest of the team, my sense is the tides are moving in the direction to take Zach Wilson.  If not, I would have thought the Jets would have been more adamant by now that they were keeping Darnold, so as to make a bidder's war for the number 2 pick.  That they've said nothing to me has me thinking they are likely going with the QB at 2.

But this is where I disagree with others who think Darnold will simply be traded.  It's not clear that he has a bonafide starting position elsewhere, maybe Denver or WFT.  Otherwise he will compete for playing time.  And then he is a free agent the following year.  Teams are not likely to trade much in that scenario if they intend for him to be a backup or a one-year plug-in.  Given that, why wouldn't we do the same if we can't obtain a high draft pick for him (low 1st?).  If he is the bridge to Wilson but bounces back with a stellar year, we can franchise or let him walk and take the 3rd round compensatory pick if he signs a big contract elsewhere.  That decision would be based on Wilson's development and whether he takes over during the year.  It gives us two starting options if one of them gets hurt.  What's not to like about a great qb room of Darnold, Wilson, and Morgan, with tremendous flexibility for next year?

Seems to me that it doesn't make sense to trade Darnold in any scenario unless another  team gets desperate and is willing to part with a higher pick.  He is cheap this year.  And that's even assuming we take Wilson, which is looking more likely by the day.

If the Jets cannot trade Darnold this year, the free agency market for him next may not garner anything close to a 3rd round compensatory pick.  He would need to sign a $15M+ per year deal.  As a comparison Mariota's 2 year deal $17M with the Raiders, would have resulted in a 6th round comp pick for the Titans.  That could be the same type of contract Darnold would sign.  If a team is willing to sign him to a $15M+ contract next offseason, what would teams be willing to give up for Darnold at $10M this year and $19M next (exercise 5th year option)?  By trading for Darnold, the team that gets him would not have to fight for his rights next offseason.

It comes down to how much do teams value Darnold?  Is he worth trading away for a 1st/2nd or do you take your chances and hope he signs a $15M+ contract?  More likely he will sign something that will garner a 5th or 6th round pick.  An alternative strategy that has been mentioned is taking a QB at 2, trading Darnold and signing someone like Nick Mullens, Alex Smith or CJ Beathard.  You get a 1 year bridge QB that knows the system and can mentor the number 2 pick, you maximize the value you get from Darnold (a 1st/2nd over a 5th/6th) and you won't have any locker room loyalty issues.

[doitny]

19 minutes ago, nyjbuddy said:

If the Jets cannot trade Darnold this year, the free agency market for him next may not garner anything close to a 3rd round compensatory pick.  He would need to sign a $15M+ per year deal.  As a comparison Mariota's 2 year deal $17M with the Raiders, would have resulted in a 6th round comp pick for the Titans.  That could be the same type of contract Darnold would sign.  If a team is willing to sign him to a $15M+ contract next offseason, what would teams be willing to give up for Darnold at $10M this year and $19M next (exercise 5th year option)?  By trading for Darnold, the team that gets him would not have to fight for his rights next offseason.

It comes down to how much do teams value Darnold?  Is he worth trading away for a 1st/2nd or do you take your chances and hope he signs a $15M+ contract?  More likely he will sign something that will garner a 5th or 6th round pick.  An alternative strategy that has been mentioned is taking a QB at 2, trading Darnold and signing someone like Nick Mullens, Alex Smith or CJ Beathard.  You get a 1 year bridge QB that knows the system and can mentor the number 2 pick, you maximize the value you get from Darnold (a 1st/2nd over a 5th/6th) and you won't have any locker room loyalty issues.

great post. i like bringing in Mullens or Smith to be a bridge.

and i totally forgot the loyalty issues.  Sam is a nice guy, im sure that whole locker room loves him. now you bring in some kid to take his job. SMH

keeping Sam is a disaster is so many ways.

[undertow]

I was pro keeping Darnold and trading down but not being aggressive in free agency with getting line help only sets Sam up to fail.  It also makes no sense to keep Sam his value will just plummet and I don't see this team being any different offensively with Darnold or a guy like Mullens or Mariotta next year...just get the 2nd round pick and sit Wilson half the year.

[jetstream23]

2 hours ago, Beerfish said:

If we are not getting adequate trade offers for Darnold I would have no issue keeping him and a new QB.

The question then becomes the 5th year option.  I think there's a 95% chance they don't exercise it, but I believe team have until about a week after the Draft to decide.

IF the Jets drafted Wilson, didn't trade Darnold and didn't exercise the 5th year option then things get interesting with the clock ticking as we head into the season....

Would you start Darnold, bring Wilson along slowly, and try to trade Sam in-season before the trade deadline in Oct/Nov?

Do you try to get Wilson on the field quickly and have him play in at least 6 or 7 games so that you can see what you have before you pull the trigger on trading Darnold, or if Wilson seems lost you hang onto Sam?

A situation with both Darnold and Wilson on the roster ensures a ton of Game Theory gets played.

[rex-n-effect]

Darnold + draft pick just makes too much sense. The combination gives the team a starter plus backup for a very reasonable cost and it gives the team an opportunity to see if Darnold is worth more than a career as a backup. It allows plenty of time for the best QB to play and the other to sit and learn which both probably need. At the end of the year if Darnold isn't the outright starter then he can be unloaded and the team can carry on with whoever gets drafted plus Morgan. 

The idea the team has to dump Sam as a sign of support towards their draft pick is silly and generally not something any team would do.

[Philc1]

If we draft Wilson at 2 and pass on both Sewell and Pitts this roster is still ... pretty sh t

 

so yeah this is a great idea let’s set up 2 young QBs to fail instead of just one

[Phillyjet]

30 minutes ago, nyjbuddy said:

If the Jets cannot trade Darnold this year, the free agency market for him next may not garner anything close to a 3rd round compensatory pick.  He would need to sign a $15M+ per year deal.  As a comparison Mariota's 2 year deal $17M with the Raiders, would have resulted in a 6th round comp pick for the Titans.  That could be the same type of contract Darnold would sign.  If a team is willing to sign him to a $15M+ contract next offseason, what would teams be willing to give up for Darnold at $10M this year and $19M next (exercise 5th year option)?  By trading for Darnold, the team that gets him would not have to fight for his rights next offseason.

It comes down to how much do teams value Darnold?  Is he worth trading away for a 1st/2nd or do you take your chances and hope he signs a $15M+ contract?  More likely he will sign something that will garner a 5th or 6th round pick.  An alternative strategy that has been mentioned is taking a QB at 2, trading Darnold and signing someone like Nick Mullens, Alex Smith or CJ Beathard.  You get a 1 year bridge QB that knows the system and can mentor the number 2 pick, you maximize the value you get from Darnold (a 1st/2nd over a 5th/6th) and you won't have any locker room loyalty issues.

And if Wilson goes down with injury this year, then what?  Yes, it would be nice to have a pick for Darnold, but it's also good to have a depth chart and a chance to win with either.  Darnold starts the year if he can beat Wilson in camp... we see how it goes... can always make a change mid-year.  And then, so be it if he leaves with a lower round compensatory pick.  Otherwise we have nothing behind Wilson, a rookie who has already demonstrated a proclivity to injury.    Or alternatively, Darnold plays lights out, and maybe it is WIlson who is the odd man out.  JD will be forgiven if Darnold is a late bloomer.  Stacking the QB room, particularly since it doesn't overwhelm the cap, is not such a bad idea.  We wouldn't be the first team to do it.

[flgreen]

IMO Douglas has put a 1st rd price tag on Darnold.

if he doesn't get it, I doubt he will, both Darnold, and Wilson will be on the team next year. 

[southparkcpa]

3 hours ago, Phillyjet said:

As someone who would lean toward keeping Darnold and building up the rest of the team, my sense is the tides are moving in the direction to take Zach Wilson.  If not, I would have thought the Jets would have been more adamant by now that they were keeping Darnold, so as to make a bidder's war for the number 2 pick.  That they've said nothing to me has me thinking they are likely going with the QB at 2.

But this is where I disagree with others who think Darnold will simply be traded.  It's not clear that he has a bonafide starting position elsewhere, maybe Denver or WFT.  Otherwise he will compete for playing time.  And then he is a free agent the following year.  Teams are not likely to trade much in that scenario if they intend for him to be a backup or a one-year plug-in.  Given that, why wouldn't we do the same if we can't obtain a high draft pick for him (low 1st?).  If he is the bridge to Wilson but bounces back with a stellar year, we can franchise or let him walk and take the 3rd round compensatory pick if he signs a big contract elsewhere.  That decision would be based on Wilson's development and whether he takes over during the year.  It gives us two starting options if one of them gets hurt.  What's not to like about a great qb room of Darnold, Wilson, and Morgan, with tremendous flexibility for next year?

Seems to me that it doesn't make sense to trade Darnold in any scenario unless another  team gets desperate and is willing to part with a higher pick.  He is cheap this year.  And that's even assuming we take Wilson, which is looking more likely by the day.

I  posted this elsewhere...  Darnold has been given NO HELP yet we crucify him. If Wilson and Darnold were in camp, I see that as a positive.  We had FITZ and McGown and passed on at least 5 top QB's and now we have a chance to choose between 2 in camp.  Jets seem to always fukk this stuff up. 

[HighPitch]

3 hours ago, Phillyjet said:

As someone who would lean toward keeping Darnold and building up the rest of the team, my sense is the tides are moving in the direction to take Zach Wilson.  If not, I would have thought the Jets would have been more adamant by now that they were keeping Darnold, so as to make a bidder's war for the number 2 pick.  That they've said nothing to me has me thinking they are likely going with the QB at 2.

But this is where I disagree with others who think Darnold will simply be traded.  It's not clear that he has a bonafide starting position elsewhere, maybe Denver or WFT.  Otherwise he will compete for playing time.  And then he is a free agent the following year.  Teams are not likely to trade much in that scenario if they intend for him to be a backup or a one-year plug-in.  Given that, why wouldn't we do the same if we can't obtain a high draft pick for him (low 1st?).  If he is the bridge to Wilson but bounces back with a stellar year, we can franchise or let him walk and take the 3rd round compensatory pick if he signs a big contract elsewhere.  That decision would be based on Wilson's development and whether he takes over during the year.  It gives us two starting options if one of them gets hurt.  What's not to like about a great qb room of Darnold, Wilson, and Morgan, with tremendous flexibility for next year?

Seems to me that it doesn't make sense to trade Darnold in any scenario unless another  team gets desperate and is willing to part with a higher pick.  He is cheap this year.  And that's even assuming we take Wilson, which is looking more likely by the day.

I said this months ago but nobody listened

[Peace Frog]

I’m a Sam fan. 

But if we draft Wilson I want them to turn the franchise over to him, push all the chips into the pot, and trade Sam for as much as they can get and use whatever draft capital that is on Oline or WR. Give Wilson all the help we can.

And I’d have a second team to root for (as long as it’s not the Pats). Hoping NFC, that would be nice. 

[HighPitch]

37 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

If we draft Wilson at 2 and pass on both Sewell and Pitts this roster is still ... pretty sh t

 

so yeah this is a great idea let’s set up 2 young QBs to fail instead of just one

You need a lil love

[jamesr]

great post. i like bringing in Mullens or Smith to be a bridge.
and i totally forgot the loyalty issues.  Sam is a nice guy, im sure that whole locker room loves him. now you bring in some kid to take his job. SMH
keeping Sam is a disaster is so many ways.

Also - if you keep Sam and play him while Wilson sits, every single error from Sam will be magnified and the calls to bench him will be ever present. Not a healthy environment at all.

Fans will be patient with Wilson while he grows into the role. Fans will not be patient with Sam if Wilson is on the bench.

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk

[Bronx]

3 hours ago, slimjasi said:

I think it's hard to draft a QB at #2 and keep Darnold in the locker room in practice. I think you give Sam a fresh start with another organization. 

I am pretty sure that mono didn't rip his balls off. Allow him to grab his sack and stand up like man. Stop the pussyfucation!

[slimjasi]

17 minutes ago, Bronx said:

I am pretty sure that mono didn't rip his balls off. Allow him to grab his sack and stand up like man. Stop the pussyfucation!

Either he is "broken" and the Jets "ruined him" or he was fatally flawed to begin with. If the thought is that the former is true, then it makes sense to give him a change of scenery. Either way, I don't think the Jets need to burden themselves with fixing Sam forever. Three years is a long time in the NFL - it hasn't worked out well for either side. Time to move on, IMO. 

[Bronx]

10 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Either he is "broken" and the Jets "ruined him" or he was fatally flawed to begin with. If the thought is that the former is true, then it makes sense to give him a change of scenery. Either way, I don't think the Jets need to burden themselves with fixing Sam forever. Three years is a long time in the NFL - it hasn't worked out well for either side. Time to move on, IMO. 

Legit statement.

[Phillyjet]

50 minutes ago, jamesr said:

Also - if you keep Sam and play him while Wilson sits, every single error from Sam will be magnified and the calls to bench him will be ever present. Not a healthy environment at all.

Fans will be patient with Wilson while he grows into the role. Fans will not be patient with Sam if Wilson is on the bench.

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk
 

Not sure we need to worry about coddling Darnold anymore.  He is playing for his job, learning the west coast system.  It is what it is.  He's earned it based on injury and inconsistent play the last couple of years.  I actually think Darnold can handle it.  Pretty solid guy, and if he doesn't he becomes QB2.

[jamesr]

17 minutes ago, Phillyjet said:

Not sure we need to worry about coddling Darnold anymore.  He is playing for his job, learning the west coast system.  It is what it is.  He's earned it based on injury and inconsistent play the last couple of years.  I actually think Darnold can handle it.  Pretty solid guy, and if he doesn't he becomes QB2.

It's not about coddling Darnold ... we have a new HC in town, last thing we want is to hand him a QB controversy to have to navigate. Both with the media / fans and in the locker room.

[DetroitRed]

3 hours ago, K_O_Brien said:

In an ideal world it would be nice, but I think the days of sitting a rookie are mostly gone. The only first round guy that sat last year was the guy who wasn't good enough. Burrow and Herbert were ready to go from day 1. Herbert was elite.

If Wilson is the guy, he has experience of the same offensive system we will install, plenty of play action, outside zone, bootleg, etc.. No other college QB will have played as much in our new system as Wilson. 

Mahomes

[DetroitRed]

2 hours ago, doitny said:

what is wrong with you guys.

what if Sam beats out Wilson for the job? JD just busted on the 2OA pick....hes done. what do you think is going to happen? JD will be able to get a big trade for Wilson? no, hes lucky if he gets a 2nd rd pick like Arizona got for Rosen.

and Wilson will be JDs pick. Sam is not. if Sam fails it wasnt JDs guy. Wilson is. JD is going to want to help Wilson, not Sam succede. and that includes not having a win all fight for your job competition. who does that to a 2OA QB .

sorry but even if we trade Sam for a bucket of footballs, in the long run its better for Wilson, for us. Sam cannot be here looking over Wilson shoulder. the pressure on Wilson would be immense. there would be no pressure on Sam since he was most likely gone anyway.

Wilson just had 2 QBs looking over his shoulder at BYU. Coach told him as much. He did just fine.  Wouldn’t want him if he couldn’t handle that. All reports say he welcomed the challenge.  

[nyjbuddy]

3 hours ago, Phillyjet said:

And if Wilson goes down with injury this year, then what?  Yes, it would be nice to have a pick for Darnold, but it's also good to have a depth chart and a chance to win with either.  Darnold starts the year if he can beat Wilson in camp... we see how it goes... can always make a change mid-year.  And then, so be it if he leaves with a lower round compensatory pick.  Otherwise we have nothing behind Wilson, a rookie who has already demonstrated a proclivity to injury.    Or alternatively, Darnold plays lights out, and maybe it is WIlson who is the odd man out.  JD will be forgiven if Darnold is a late bloomer.  Stacking the QB room, particularly since it doesn't overwhelm the cap, is not such a bad idea.  We wouldn't be the first team to do it.

This is a possibility.  What if the exact opposite happens, where Darnold gets injured, highly likely given his past three seasons, and the draft pick plays lights out?  Darnold walks away and gets no pick in return.  Or what if Darnold can't beat out the draft pick?  The return for Darnold now would garner another starting caliber prospect.

Signing someone like Alex Smith, who has proven he can win, more so than Darnold, would be a more ideal backup if they are worried about winning this year.  Smith also has more experience in the Shanahan offense and has shown to be a great locker room leader, especially with how he helped mentor Mahomes.

If they feel Darnold is able to compete for the starting job, then they should not draft the QB at 2 to begin with.  

Darnold and a 5th/6th round comp pick or Smith and a starting IOL/CB/EDGE? 

 

[doitny]

1 hour ago, DetroitRed said:

Wilson just had 2 QBs looking over his shoulder at BYU. Coach told him as much. He did just fine.  Wouldn’t want him if he couldn’t handle that. All reports say he welcomed the challenge.  

BYU isnt NY. the first time he throws a few INTs he, Sam , Saleh will be bombarded with questions. this has dysfunction written all over this. 

funny how i been hearing how Sam was put in a unfair situation. the roster, the coach... now most of you dont have a problem putting Wilson in a worst one from day 1. 

so we draft Wilson and tell him what? we like you, but we like Sam too. so winner gets the job. dont worry if you lose we will trade you next year.

i swear some of you guys just want to keep Sam cause your unhappy with his trade value.

 

 

[DetroitRed]

29 minutes ago, doitny said:

BYU isnt NY. the first time he throws a few INTs he, Sam , Saleh will be bombarded with questions. this has dysfunction written all over this. 

funny how i been hearing how Sam was put in a unfair situation. the roster, the coach... now most of you dont have a problem putting Wilson in a worst one from day 1. 

so we draft Wilson and tell him what? we like you, but we like Sam too. so winner gets the job. dont worry if you lose we will trade you next year.

i swear some of you guys just want to keep Sam cause your unhappy with his trade value.

 

 

Douglas is going to trade him if he gets back value. It has nothing to  do with how we feel.  And everyone is well aware the Jets aren’t BYU.  But If he can’t take the heat , he can’t play here anyway. We need a big boy

[batman10023]

6 hours ago, Adoni Beast said:

For the “Keep Darnold & Trade Down” crowd (and I don’t say that facetiously because thats a decent Plan B).

What is your threshold for a return to keep Sam?

What if all that us being offered are two 2nds and a 3rd from Atlanta? Or three 2nds from Philly?

Is that enough to keep Sam + trade down? To me, it wouldn’t even be close to enough and I don’t think we’re going to get the haul that we all assume will be there.

I’d take those in a heartbeat