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Generational Trevor?


Shelbyblue

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18 hours ago, win4ever said:

Thanks, I appreciate it.  I really wanted to do a breakdown of why Wilson will surprise people this year (I think I titled it Bet the Over on the Jets) until he got hurt in the pre-season game.  After that, given how we seem to handle injuries, I was like screw it.   Now he's back, but I'm moving at the end of the month to a new state, so just don't have the spare time.  

I'll add what I noticed about Wilson below, but want to touch up on Lawrence a bit as well.  If you watch him for throws this year, he's absolutely a stud in the middle of the field.  His game for in breaking routes and crossers are really good for a young QB, and better than Wilson.  However, he absolutely sucks on out breaking routes that aren't the quick easy out routes, or deep passes.  Clemson ran a horizontal spread, with a bunch of seam routes and option routes in the middle of the field.  At his size and release point, this was his bread and butter.  Especially playing in the ACC, this meant teams couldn't match up linebackers in the middle, plus handle Higgins/Ross on the outside.  When those two weren't available, it was Amari Rodgers that looked like the No. 1 guy, because they were so centered around the middle of the field with option routes breaking whichever way.

If we go back to his LSU game where he was terrible, notice that they had Patrick Queen, K'Lavon Chaisson, Jacob Philips (a 3rd round pick), surrounded by Kristian Fulton, Grant Delpit, and Stingley.  Those linebackers could negate anything in the middle, and once the middle field read was gone, Lawrence was limited.  I know the defense there looks nasty, but Lawrence himself had Higgins (basically a first round pick, picked just outside), Etinenne (first round pick), Ross (pre-injury was on a first round trajectory) and Rodgers.  Not saying it's equal, but a generational guy should at least do something.  

If you look at the first OSU game (before LSU), the Buckeyes were in complete control until the Wade targeting ejection on a sack of Lawrence.  It was a BS call, but that game completely changed on that call.  They had Okudah/Wade, but once Wade was kicked out, their entire defense had to change.  He took advantage, but he definitely showed weakness prior to that.  

If we go back to the Alabama national championship one, he had the talent advantage by a fair margin.  Aside from Quinnen Williams, that defense definitely wasn't loaded as you expect an Alabama defense to be.   Higgins and especially Ross absolutely killed it in that game.  Again, Lawrence looked great but he also had a talent advantage, which wasn't really realized at the time with the roster.  

The second OSU game, they got killed by Fields.  

To me, he's living high off the Alabama game (which was great, not to take it away, but he got a ton of help from the WRs).  On one play, I think Ross had a long TD because the CB slipped and hurt his foot, allowing him to take a simple curl route to the house.  And then Ross had two insane one handed catches by the sideline as well.  It kinda reminds me of that Darnold/PSU game where WRs made some diving catches, and then the excuses just started to flow.   

Lawrence has a ton of potential, his middle field game is absolutely great.  But he has major flaws to the outside right now.  I see aggressive teams hedging their bets jumping inside routes, which is why he seems to throw a lot of almost interceptions.  He seems to do well against the Colts because they run a lot of Cover 2 last year (checkdown to the middle of the field, don't allow you to attack down the field or deep - hence why our passing game looked great against them last year with White/Johnson) because they play to his strengths.  Attack the middle of the field, stay away from deep and outside passes is pretty much the strategy against Cover 2.  I think this year, they are going more Cover 3, but the way to attack it seems the same.  Attack the middle, long drives.  It's also why Russel Wilson looked terrible against them, because he made a whole career out of avoiding the middle, attacking the deep and outside, which goes right into the teeth of the defensive strategy. 

If Lawrence can develop the outside game and read defensive shells, he'll be great.  He has the physical tools to be a Herbert type guy.  But his mental game is very similar to Darnold.  If he reads it right, he'll look good because he can make the throws.  If he reads it wrong, he panics and is limited with his reads.  

He's not generational, unless he improves.  Now he can absolutely improve, so it's not me writing him off, but the best prospect since Luck idea is stupid.   

Thanks, lol, I hated writing it as well.  

I think Wilson made a lot of good adjustments that somewhat went unnoticed last year.  The biggest one was his inclination to run at the end of the year.  One of his biggest issues in college was his proclivity towards playing hero ball, throwing up random prayers.  Near the end of last year, he decided to stop taking those shots (INTs went down), and run the ball.  In theory, a QB running constantly isn't sustainable, but I thought the idea behind it showed progress.  In this system, he had to learn to take checkdowns, but our weapons at the end of last year were just a bunch of losers.  So instead of checking down, he was using the QB run in it's place, which forces the same type of adjustments from the defense.  They have to step up towards the line of scrimmage, opening up deep passes, only we didn't have anyone to run deep.  

This year, I thought if he could check down or run like he did last year, the deep field should open up more (albeit, teams are running more Cover 2 leaguewide).  I was scared off from writing the article when he got injured, because if he doesn't have the ability to run, it helps the defenses far too much.  

Even that interception against the Steelers (the overthrow to Jeff Smith, the other one was a good pass that Conklin popped up), the issue was a reset on the route.  That throw was intended to be thrown in the middle of the field, but Fitzpatrick (I think, or a safety) drove on it, and Wilson didn't pull the trigger (correctly), but waited too long to pull the trigger right after.  In his mind, that was a safe throw, because it was both away from the primary defender, and the safety over the top.  The issue however was that since that throw is designed to be thrown earlier, Moore's defender is in the area, and peels off to make the interception.  If Moore's route was more in breaking, that's a safe throw.  Now the whole idea of why Jeff Smith is out there to begin with is a different story.  He wasn't catching that pass anyway, Wilson expected him to float back towards the endzone while Smith flattened his route more.  I'm not sure what Smith adds that Mims can't at this point.  

The other aspect to keep in mind is the time missed with Moore (from end of last year when he was injured) to Garret Wilson (since Zach was injured) is that they are great route runners that set up their stems based on the defender.  They read the defender's hips to set up their steams, even manipulating them, but the timing can be slightly off because of it.  For example, for an in breaking route, both Moore/Wilson make take an extra false step to the outside.  A QB needs reps to develop the timing on this aspect, because it may not be quite as consistent until you practice with them over and over again.  Zach getting injured early on in the pre-season really set them back on developing this timing.  I think that's why in pressure situations with the game on the line, his No. 1 WR is Davis because he runs more consistent routes.  As they develop chemistry with Zach, I expect both Moore and Garret Wilson to really start attracting more targets.  I think they are just scratching the surface of this offense until the timing is down pat with those two, but need some injury luck for it to happen.  

I really think Wilson can take a massive step forward if the timing works out.  He's gotten rid of his hero ball outlook (that Steelers INT wasn't hero ball as much as it looks like), understands checkdowns (both short throws and runs).  He still needs to work on floating back in the pocket, and timing with his other WRs though.  

While I'm at it, I find it very interesting what the Bears are doing with Fields.  I know a lot of folks jumped ship, but they are trying to rebuild his processing right now by giving him very few opportunities to make mistakes.  Focus heavy on the run, simple reads for passes.  Their offense is absolutely atrocious, so there's no point ruining a QB by putting them into an impossible situations.  In this case, the Bears are taking the blame for a running offense, while brining Fields along slowly.  They are avoiding the mistake we made with Geno/Darnold, which is expect the young QB to overcome mediocre to bad talent by throwing them into the fire.  They know it's a rebuild, but they are also rebuilding Fields containing his passing game.  Once they get weapons that can win one on one match ups, they will still have a QB that has confidence to make those throws, while having great running ability.  I'm not jumping off of that ship yet, I just think they are following an extreme version of the Bills development with Josh Allen.  Act as a running back for a year or two, that makes throws, until you have the weapons.  By next year, you'll have better understanding on complex reads in the system, better WRs (at least it can't get worse), and you would have established the ability to run in the NFL.  While it sucks for this year, I don't think they are tanking for a QB in the next draft.  

Damn I love this post 

great read brother 

Cheers and salute ? 

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the Jets didn't spend 2 overall draft pick on a game manager who can hand the ball off against a team led by Skylar Thompson 

he's supposed to be a franchise QB 

Franchise QBs complete more than 55 percent of their passes and aren't always upside down on TD/INT ratio 

Yay they won a divisional game. 

I want to see more. 

Breece is a real star, Sauce is a real star, Wilson is a guy who hands the ball off and tries not to screw it up 

for what he's being paid he has to make plays not just hand it off and find the RB in the flat 

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On 10/10/2022 at 3:24 PM, Bowles Movement said:

This is maybe your most ridiculous take ever, and that’s saying something.

Did Wilson play conservatively 2 weeks ago when he was down 10 in the 4 th quarter?

Being situationally aware is evidence of growth and understanding.  When Sanchez played they game him plays in red and green to emphasize this to him.

This is nowhere near his most ridiculous take ever. 

Given the multitude of Bit's Jetblue comments re Zach (the idea being that, because his uncle founded the airline, Wilson wouldn't need football to be ok), I can only imagine if it was Wilson who - in the weeks before the draft, no less - outright let it slip out, "It's not like I need this for my life to be O.K."

Lawrence was a generational prospect. Unless the Jets had drafted him; then it'd be either (1) we fell for the hype; or (2) he was generational and was destined for greatness until the Jets ruined him. 

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12 minutes ago, Bowles Movement said:

Can this statement really be true?   Love to hear some of the others!,

I don't understand this request. I figured you were familiar with the expression, "Be careful what you wish for; you might get it." Am I mistaken?

It's been all in good fun anyway. It has to be, after this many years. OK maybe not all, but pretty much all, lol. 

Plus I've forgotten most of them. A great one was that the Jets (like other, if not most) teams don't spend fully up to the cap every year because Woody Johnson is cash poor?

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3 hours ago, bitonti said:

the Jets didn't spend 2 overall draft pick on a game manager who can hand the ball off against a team led by Skylar Thompson 

he's supposed to be a franchise QB 

Franchise QBs complete more than 55 percent of their passes and aren't always upside down on TD/INT ratio 

Yay they won a divisional game. 

I want to see more. 

Breece is a real star, Sauce is a real star, Wilson is a guy who hands the ball off and tries not to screw it up 

for what he's being paid he has to make plays not just hand it off and find the RB in the flat 

He’s in his 2nd season, hasn’t played a full seasons worth of games.    He’s not a game manager and he completed 67% of his passes yesterday.  In 2 games he’s thrown 2 picks, both easily could have been avoided if the receivers played their game.  Especially the 2nd one that went off his TEs hands.

I could care less that he lead the team to 5 TDS and all were on the ground.  If Hall goes an extra yard on two of his receptions ZW has 2, who cares.  I care more that he’s 2-0 and the offense is improved.  And I never whine about wins trying to make them losses or poor performances when we all know that they’re not.  

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2 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

This is nowhere near his most ridiculous take ever. 

Given the multitude of Bit's Jetblue comments re Zach (the idea being that, because his uncle founded the airline, Wilson wouldn't need football to be ok), I can only imagine if it was Wilson who - in the weeks before the draft, no less - outright let it slip out, "It's not like I need this for my life to be O.K."

Lawrence was a generational prospect. Unless the Jets had drafted him; then it'd be either (1) we fell for the hype; or (2) he was generational and was destined for greatness until the Jets ruined him. 

Zach in college was delivering food on door dash to make some extra money.   But that goes against the narrative. 

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22 hours ago, win4ever said:

I can't quite find the stat that I referenced last year in terms of 4th quarter +/- 7 points, but I found the stats for 4th quarter +/- 8 points.  

Last year, Wilson in the 4th quarter +/- 8 had a rating of 109.1, on 40 passing attempts.  For reference, Aaron Rodgers had 44 attempts, but Roethlesberger had 90.  So part of it is the team, opponents they are playing, and being in tight situations.  Since we lost a decent amount last year, attempts are fairly low.  Since the Packers won a lot last year, they were also low on attempts.  Like Cousins had 133 attempts last year, because they have a penchant for close games.  

Since we are referencing Lawrence, he had a 60.3 rating on 54 attempts.  

This year, Wilson is sitting at 153.2 but only at 9 attempts.  This of course is a very short sample size, and one bad quarter away from flipped upside down.  Trevor Lawrence is rated at 28.6 at 31 attempts, so his sample size is larger.  

Although neither of this should be taken as a be all or end all stat, Wilson shows more "clutch" throws in close games.  He improved a lot on his wild throws and recklessness, so there is some evidence that he can play within the system when he's in a close game late.  Again, really short sample sizes because it's also team situation dependent.  

Anyway, here's the link so I don't forget it lol

https://www.footballdb.com/statistics/nfl/player-splits/passing/fourth-quarter-one-score/2022?sort=passrate

They have some other splits too that can go back and forth on.  

Thanks for this info.  Very informative. 
 

does Trevor have a weak arm?  The Hail Mary was pretty bad. 

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2 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Lawrence was a generational prospect. Unless the Jets had drafted him; then it'd be either (1) we fell for the hype; or (2) he was generational and was destined for greatness until the Jets ruined him. 

Did you forget that Lawrence was going to go back to Clemson to stay away from the Jets?

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7 hours ago, batman10023 said:

Thanks for this info.  Very informative. 
 

does Trevor have a weak arm?  The Hail Mary was pretty bad. 

The Hail Mary was bad, but I think it slipped out of his hand.  I've seen him make longer throws just on the run, so it's not really an arm thing.  

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19 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

This is nowhere near his most ridiculous take ever. 

Given the multitude of Bit's Jetblue comments re Zach (the idea being that, because his uncle founded the airline, Wilson wouldn't need football to be ok), I can only imagine if it was Wilson who - in the weeks before the draft, no less - outright let it slip out, "It's not like I need this for my life to be O.K."

Lawrence was a generational prospect. Unless the Jets had drafted him; then it'd be either (1) we fell for the hype; or (2) he was generational and was destined for greatness until the Jets ruined him. 

strong words from the dude who thought DBrick was overpaid and overrated

if you want to quote the conspiracy theory get it right. JetBlue, who are a major sponsor of the Jets, didn't have to say or do anything to boost Wilson's stock. It was always in the NYJ interest to draft this player and keep their biggest sponsor besides MetLife happy. 

I'm still not entirely sure what Wilson did on the field in 2020 to justify going 2 overall. It wasn't even like they entertained other options. The Wilson pick came from ownership in like January and everyone in the world knew that was going to be the pick. Wilson's signature win was what? USC as a soph?

here we are singing the praises of 55 percent, which are Sanchizian completion levels. Red-Yellow-Green era stuff 

Was Wilson really a better prospect than Lawrence? No. but some in this thread want to believe that. Lawrence is better than Wilson right now.

Trey Lance? ok sure. But I'm not sure he's better than Justin Fields tbh. We will find out when they play h2h this year.  Wilson never had the attributes to survive life in the league. Great arm, maybe some speed questionable durability 

having your uncle be the team's huge sponsor is what lawyers call a conflict of interest, that's not a conspiracy it's a fact of life 

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20 minutes ago, bitonti said:

strong words from the dude who thought DBrick was overpaid and overrated

if you want to quote the conspiracy theory get it right. JetBlue, who are a major sponsor of the Jets, didn't have to say or do anything to boost Wilson's stock. It was always in the NYJ interest to draft this player and keep their biggest sponsor besides MetLife happy. 

I'm still not entirely sure what Wilson did on the field in 2020 to justify going 2 overall. It wasn't even like they entertained other options. The Wilson pick came from ownership in like January and everyone in the world knew that was going to be the pick. Wilson's signature win was what? USC as a soph?

here we are singing the praises of 55 percent, which are Sanchizian completion levels. Red-Yellow-Green era stuff 

Was Wilson really a better prospect than Lawrence? No. but some in this thread want to believe that. Lawrence is better than Wilson right now.

Trey Lance? ok sure. But I'm not sure he's better than Justin Fields tbh. We will find out when they play h2h this year.  Wilson never had the attributes to survive life in the league. Great arm, maybe some speed questionable durability 

having your uncle be the team's huge sponsor is what lawyers call a conflict of interest, that's not a conspiracy it's a fact of life 

Welcome to bitonis world 

image.jpeg.a7a567cf0789cced48f4f243178a6d3b.jpeg

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6 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

Even F Lee Bailey would have a difficult time convincing a jury of that particular coincidence actually representing a conflict of interest.

Yes it was such a conflict of interest after Zach’s dad specifically didn’t want the jets to draft him iirc (didn’t he say or tweet something like that?). In that case, the way to keep the corporate sponsor family happy is to trade down with SF, not draft Wilson. To draft him anyway is what conflicts that interest.

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On 10/10/2022 at 7:35 AM, Anthony Jet said:

I don’t understand the Minshew issue, granted I’ve only seen him a couple times. But he look like an avg starter in the league 

The Minshew love on this board is a little baffling. He is not an average starter. He is not even a starting NFL QB. He is a bottom quarter starter and a good back up QB. That's it.  If he didn't look a 70s porn star, he'd be Case Keenum.

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15 minutes ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

The Minshew love on this board is a little baffling. He is not an average starter. He is not even a starting NFL QB. He is a bottom quarter starter and a good back up QB. That's it.  If he didn't look a 70s porn star, he'd be Case Keenum.

The difference between avg and bottom quarter in the nfl is huge right? 

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On 10/10/2022 at 12:11 PM, bitonti said:

[Trevor Lawrence] won a Natty [...] as a freshman

So did "Saturday Arm" Tim Tebow.

Put them instead on Purdue/wherever and the only Natty they win is the can of Natty Light a buddy buys them for an attaboy/cheer-up while they're watching TV as someone like Colt Brennan or Mason Rudolph wins the big one for FL/Clemson.

;) 

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2 hours ago, bitonti said:

strong words from the dude who thought DBrick was overpaid and overrated

if you want to quote the conspiracy theory get it right. JetBlue, who are a major sponsor of the Jets, didn't have to say or do anything to boost Wilson's stock. It was always in the NYJ interest to draft this player and keep their biggest sponsor besides MetLife happy. 

I'm still not entirely sure what Wilson did on the field in 2020 to justify going 2 overall. It wasn't even like they entertained other options. The Wilson pick came from ownership in like January and everyone in the world knew that was going to be the pick. Wilson's signature win was what? USC as a soph?

here we are singing the praises of 55 percent, which are Sanchizian completion levels. Red-Yellow-Green era stuff 

Was Wilson really a better prospect than Lawrence? No. but some in this thread want to believe that. Lawrence is better than Wilson right now.

Trey Lance? ok sure. But I'm not sure he's better than Justin Fields tbh. We will find out when they play h2h this year.  Wilson never had the attributes to survive life in the league. Great arm, maybe some speed questionable durability 

having your uncle be the team's huge sponsor is what lawyers call a conflict of interest, that's not a conspiracy it's a fact of life 

JetBlue is the major sponsor of the Patriots also.  and other teams as well.

the Jetblue sponsorship is worth $2MM a year for the patriots and less for the Jets.  

and i am sure you know the uncle was fired from Jetblue in 2007.

you really don't like Woody, it sucks for you because him and his family probably going to be owners for decades to come.  it's sad and pathetic.

Avacado's from Peru are also sponsors of the NY Jets.  lol.

 

 

 

https://www.patriots.com/news/jetblue-continues-to-soar-as-official-airline-of-the-new-england-patriots-301156

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1 hour ago, bitonti said:

your posts are super insightful 

 

your posts are worst than clown posts as they are misleading.

you can dislike Wilson but to think that it was chosen because the players uncle founded airline (which he was fired from which you conveniently left out) that is a sponsor.

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1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Yes it was such a conflict of interest after Zach’s dad specifically didn’t want the jets to draft him iirc (didn’t he say or tweet something like that?). In that case, the way to keep the corporate sponsor family happy is to trade down with SF, not draft Wilson. To draft him anyway is what conflicts that interest.

the uncle has zero involvement with Jetblue.  He was fired as CEO and left the board over a decade prior to the draft.

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41 minutes ago, batman10023 said:

the uncle has zero involvement with Jetblue.  He was fired as CEO and left the board over a decade prior to the draft.

this is like saying Woody has no involvement with J&J

having a metric f-ton of the preferred stock is an involvement

No you guys are right Zach Wilson made it to 2 overall because of his stunning loss against Coastal Carolina and the combine workouts he didn't do that 40 he never ran and the 2 torn labrums.

it's not that he's a bad prospect he's just closer to a mid 1st than a top 3 guy because of injuries. but he was over inflated into this amazing prospect - based on what? the knowledge the Jets were going to draft him 5 months before the draft.  

and even though the Jets have won two straight it's not really because of Zach. He's managing the game which is better than not managing but it's still not what we expected out of 2 overall 

he needs to complete more than 55 percent of passes and play more games before we say he's better than Trevor 

if that makes me the clown so be it there are 32 NFL gms i'm not sure any of them would take Zach over Trevor right now, straight up 

not even JD 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, bitonti said:

this is like saying Woody has no involvement with J&J

having a metric f-ton of the preferred stock is an involvement

No you guys are right Zach Wilson made it to 2 overall because of his stunning loss against Coastal Carolina and the combine workouts he didn't do that 40 he never ran and the 2 torn labrums.

it's not that he's a bad prospect he's just closer to a mid 1st than a top 3 guy because of injuries. but he was over inflated into this amazing prospect - based on what? the knowledge the Jets were going to draft him 5 months before the draft.  

and even though the Jets have won two straight it's not really because of Zach. He's managing the game which is better than not managing but it's still not what we expected out of 2 overall 

 

 

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