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Aaron Rodgers to the Jets rumor: Merged


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51 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

If you are GB, how can you sell your fanbase on....

What makes you think they need to "sell their fanbase"?

I think this is one of the most overused, and most off-target, points fans make.  An inaccurate fan-centric view with no basis in reality.

NFL GM's do not have to "sell their fanbase" on anything they do, ever, in any circumstance, in the NFL. 

Winning > All else.  Losing > all else.

And this applies in the truly big cases.  Getting a 2024 pick instead of a 2023 pick is minutia, not a big deal at all.

GB doesn't have to sell their fanbase on any of this.  GB will still sell as many tickets, sell as much swag, and make as much money regardless of if they get a 2023 pick or a 2024 pick.

We really should stop thinking of this deal in these "sell the fanbase" terms.  

I mean think about it, has any Jets GM ever "sold the fanbase" on some of the dumbass moves we've made?  Yet we still made them, still sold tons of tickets and swag, and we're all still here yammering about it, lol.

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8 minutes ago, Warfish said:

What makes you think they need to "sell their fanbase"?

I think this is one of the most overused, and most off-target, points fans make.  An inaccurate fan-centric view with no basis in reality.

NFL GM's do not have to "sell their fanbase" on anything they do, ever, in any circumstance, in the NFL.

And this applies in the truly big cases.  Getting a 2024 pick instead of a 2023 pick is minutia, not a big deal at all.

GB doesn't have to sell their fanbase on any of this.  GB will still sell as many tickets, sell as much swag, and make as much money regardless of if they get a 2023 pick or a 2024 pick.

We really should stop thinking of this deal in these "sell the fanbase" terms.  

I mean think about it, has any Jets GM ever "sold the fanbase" on some of the dumbass moves we've made?  Yet we still made them, still sold tons of tickets and swag, and we're all still here yammering about it, lol.

All I can tell you is, I live out here, and the local media is pushing the idea that the packers should get a lot more for Rodgers than it sounds like they will. 
 

Regardless of whether or not pissing off the fanbase is important (I think it’s more important than you do), the big point is that the packers are 100% going to want picks in this year’s draft. Any other strategy would be very silly, IMO. 
 

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17 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

All I can tell you is, I live out here, and the local media is pushing the idea that the packers should get a lot more for Rodgers than it sounds like they will. 

Please know I don't mean this rudely Slim, or as an insult you you personally....

....but so what?  

Is GB going to have trouble selling tickets for 2024 if they get a 2024 pick(s) and not a 2023 pick?

Will fans up there abandon the team?  Will the GB GM get fired right now for it?  

Nope.  Media yap, it's what they do.  No matter how the trade works out, they'll yap.  And fans will yap.  And then things will move on.

Teams do not have to sell their fans on moves.  

17 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Regardless of whether or not pissing off the fanbase is important (I think it’s more important than you do)

Do you?  Have you quit being a Jets Fan at any point because we made a truly stupid move and the GM didn't "sell you on it"?

Nope, me neither.  The dumb ass Darnold draft trade, drafting a Safety in the 1st, drafting Wilson, all horrible ideas I was vehemently against and the GM Never "sold me" on those moves, yet here I am, still here.

Fans are pissed off all the time, especially when not winning.  Thats not a big deal.

And again, 2024 picks vs. 2023 picks isn't like trading all the 2nd rounders for the right to draft Sam f'ing Darnold, lol  It's minutia only the truly die hards will care about/be angry about, even if they don't know enough about the negotiations to have a basis for that anger, lol.

17 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

, the big point is that the packers are 100% going to want picks in this year’s draft. Any other strategy would be very silly, IMO. 

Depends on the picks.  I'll take a 2024 #1 over a 2023 7th rounder, as just one hyperbolic example.  There are plenty of real-world options where 2024 picks could be better than 2023 picks.  In point of fact, GB is (sans Rodgers) starting fresh, they have time in way some teams don't, 2024 picks work just fine in such a case, as long as the value is right.  Not saying they don't want/prefer 2023 picks, but I doubt it's a deal-breaker ultimately.

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5 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Please know I don't mean this rudely Slim, or as an insult you you personally....

....but so what?  

Is GB going to have trouble selling tickets for 2024 if they get a 2024 pick(s) and not a 2023 pick?

Will fans up there abandon the team?  Will the GB GM get fired right now for it?  

Nope.  Media yap, it's what they do.  No matter how the trade works out, they'll yap.  And fans will yap.  And then things will move on.

Teams do not have to sell their fans on moves.  

Do you?  Have you quit being a Jets Fan at any point because we made a truly stupid move and the GM didn't "sell you on it"?

Nope, me neither.  The dumb ass Darnold draft trade, drafting a Safety in the 1st, drafting Wilson, all horrible ideas I was vehemently against and the GM Never "sold me" on those moves, yet here I am, still here.

Fans are pissed off all the time, especially when not winning.  Thats not a big deal.

And again, 2024 picks vs. 2023 picks isn't like trading all the 2nd rounders for the right to draft Sam f'ing Darnold, lol  It's minutia only the truly die hards will care about/be angry about, even if they don't know enough about the negotiations to have a basis for that anger, lol.

Depends on the picks.  I'll take a 2024 #1 over a 2023 7th rounder, as just one hyperbolic example.  There are plenty of real-world options where 2024 picks could be better than 2023 picks.  In point of fact, GB is (sans Rodgers) starting fresh, they have time in way some teams don't, 2024 picks work just fine in such a case, as long as the value is right.  Not saying they don't want/prefer 2023 picks, but I doubt it's a deal-breaker ultimately.

You seem to be approaching the fan comment from an economic and  organizational perspective, for which I agree with some of your points. But, what I'm saying is, if you are the HC and GM of the Packers, you want assets now. If you go 6-11 next year with Jordan Love struggling, there is no guarantee you are back in 2024 to make the picks you got for Rodgers. The likelihood of this goes up should Rodgers play well in New York (or anywhere else, for that matter). 

As for the discussion regarding 2023 vs. 2024 picks - I don't see it. I would definitely want 2023 picks. By convention, this year's picks are considered to be a full round more valuable then next year's picks (2024 1st is worth a 2023 2nd, etc.,) and you have the opportunity to land an immediate impact player (or more?) that can help you right away. I'll put it this way, It's hard for me  to imagine the Packers getting more overall draft value for Rodgers if they wait until after this year's draft. 

If I were the Packers GM, the latest I would let this go is draft weekend. My internal deadline would be when the Jets are on the clock for pick 42 (assuming 13 is really off the table). Now, I WOULD be desperately trying to get another team in the mix, to drive up the price. (IF there is a third team in he mix, maybe they can get a first round pick, after all?)

But, to me, if the Packers wait until after the draft to trade Rodgers to the Jets and let the Jets use all of their 2023 picks, then the Jets won. In fact, as a Jets fan, where do I sign for that scenario?

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This is like a game of Texas Hold Em.

The Packers were dealt an off suit 2-7 to start the process, they were playing against only one other player that being the Jets and the Jets had a huge stack lead.  A situation where the Jets should be able to play bully and win the hand easily.

All it would take would be a bit of pressure with a bet, any bet to start by the Jets and the Packers fold.

But the Jets check for some reason.  Packers say, hey fine we will check as well.

Up comes the flop and it really doesn't help the Packers at all, once again any small bet by the Jets and the Packers fold.

The Jets check again and the Packers just smile and say, hey if you are not pressuring us no reason to fold.

Then the Jets and Aaron Rodgers for unknown reasons actually flip over their hole cards for all to see and say "We win!" and start grabbing for the chips.  The Packers slap their hands and say, the hand is not over with  the Turn card comes up and both check again.  Why?  Well the Jets have turned up their cards which are now weak and the packers have always had weak hole cards.

The River card comes up and they end up having to split the pot.  All because the Jets refused to bet earlier on.

 

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27 minutes ago, Warfish said:

 

Depends on the picks.  I'll take a 2024 #1 over a 2023 7th rounder, as just one hyperbolic example.  There are plenty of real-world options where 2024 picks could be better than 2023 picks.  In point of fact, GB is (sans Rodgers) starting fresh, they have time in way some teams don't, 2024 picks work just fine in such a case, as long as the value is right.  Not saying they don't want/prefer 2023 picks, but I doubt it's a deal-breaker ultimately.

It would be for me.  

If I'm Brian Gutekunst, waiting a full year for 2024 draft picks that I'm not even guaranteed to be there to make doesn't make much sense. I'd take the best deal I can get before or during this year's draft from any team not in my division. 

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52 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Please know I don't mean this rudely Slim, or as an insult you you personally....

....but so what?  

Is GB going to have trouble selling tickets for 2024 if they get a 2024 pick(s) and not a 2023 pick?

Will fans up there abandon the team?  Will the GB GM get fired right now for it?  

Nope.  Media yap, it's what they do.  No matter how the trade works out, they'll yap.  And fans will yap.  And then things will move on.

Teams do not have to sell their fans on moves.  

Do you?  Have you quit being a Jets Fan at any point because we made a truly stupid move and the GM didn't "sell you on it"?

Nope, me neither.  The dumb ass Darnold draft trade, drafting a Safety in the 1st, drafting Wilson, all horrible ideas I was vehemently against and the GM Never "sold me" on those moves, yet here I am, still here.

Fans are pissed off all the time, especially when not winning.  Thats not a big deal.

And again, 2024 picks vs. 2023 picks isn't like trading all the 2nd rounders for the right to draft Sam f'ing Darnold, lol  It's minutia only the truly die hards will care about/be angry about, even if they don't know enough about the negotiations to have a basis for that anger, lol.

Depends on the picks.  I'll take a 2024 #1 over a 2023 7th rounder, as just one hyperbolic example.  There are plenty of real-world options where 2024 picks could be better than 2023 picks.  In point of fact, GB is (sans Rodgers) starting fresh, they have time in way some teams don't, 2024 picks work just fine in such a case, as long as the value is right.  Not saying they don't want/prefer 2023 picks, but I doubt it's a deal-breaker ultimately.

Yeah, but you have to remember, this fan base more than any other has a stronger voice and they've got to be sold on this...Packer fans own the Packers.

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29 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

You seem to be approaching the fan comment from an economic and  organizational perspective, for which I agree with some of your points.

Because of the "sell it to the fans" comment, which was my primary objection, if you will. :)

29 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

But, what I'm saying is, if you are the HC and GM of the Packers, you want assets now. If you go 6-11 next year with Jordan Love struggling, there is no guarantee you are back in 2024 to make the picks you got for Rodgers. The likelihood of this goes up should Rodgers play well in New York (or anywhere else, for that matter). 

Not sure I agree that it's this strait forward.

Again, a better pick in 2024 may be better than a worse pick in 2023.

2024 may be preferable if GB thinks that class will be better.  Or if that timing works better for them, especially at QB.

For example, lets say Jordan Love busts in 2023, looks like total Wilsonian poop.  They're not invested in him long-term yet, they can pivot.

A higher 2024 pick (or multiple higher picks), in a superior QB class, is quite a bit more valuable than a lower pick in 2023.

Just one example.

29 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

As for the discussion regarding 2023 vs. 2024 picks - I don't see it. I would definitely want 2023 picks. By convention, this year's picks are considered to be a full round more valuable then next year's picks (2024 1st is worth a 2023 2nd, etc.,) and you have the opportunity to land an immediate impact player (or more?) that can help you right away. I'll put it this way, It's hard for me  to imagine the Packers getting more overall draft value for Rodgers if they wait until after this year's draft. 

If I were the Packers GM, the latest I would let this go is draft weekend. My internal deadline would be when the Jets are on the clock for pick 42 (assuming 13 is really off the table). Now, I WOULD be desperately trying to get another team in the mix, to drive up the price. (IF there is a third team in he mix, maybe they can get a first round pick, after all?)

But, to me, if the Packers wait until after the draft to trade Rodgers to the Jets and let the Jets use all of their 2023 picks, then the Jets won. In fact, as a Jets fan, where do I sign for that scenario?

Not gonna debate each point here, but this just reads a fan wishful thinking.  You wouldn't let it go past the draft, because you (as a fan) value the trade being completed over the desires of the GB GM.  This is the same as when Jets fans claim we have all the leverage (we don't).

I am sure the two GM's have deadlines in mind, and have clearly communicated that to each other.  For our sake, we're risking other teams coming in the longer this takes, less time for Rodgers to get acclimated here, or that the trade simply doesn't happen.  Given the alternatives (Wilson?  Whomever is left at QB at pick #13?) on this bases alone I hope it gets done and done pre-draft and soon as possible.

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3 minutes ago, NIGHT STALKER said:

Yeah, but you have to remember, this fan base more than any other has a stronger voice and they've got to be sold on this...Packer fans own the Packers.

They don't vote en masse on if the GM retains his job, lol.

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27 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

It would be for me.  

If I'm Brian Gutekunst, waiting a full year for 2024 draft picks that I'm not even guaranteed to be there to make doesn't make much sense. I'd take the best deal I can get before or during this year's draft from any team not in my division. 

To each their own.

If I'm GB's GM, I'm asking for the Jets 2024 #1 (non negotiable), and a conditional #3 that escalated to a #2 if the Rodgers plays X # of games and the Jets make the postseason, plus more.

Load up in 2024 hard, to either support Love with a refresh/rebuild as needed, or to have the ammo to replace Love with the #1 overall QB prospect.

2023 isn't some super meaningful year for GB, a win or everyone gets fired type year.  GB's management is pretty comfortable right now, all things considered.  No hot seats here.  Not like us, for example...

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45 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

I'd be curious to see what trade package they could realistically offer and I assume this would mean they are trading Lance? 

Here are the draft picks the 49ers can offer for the 2023 Draft since they don't have a pick in the 1st or 2nd round:

  • Round 3, Pick 99 (compensatory)
  • Round 3, Pick 101 (compensatory)
  • Round 3, Pick 102 (compensatory)
  • Round 5, Pick 155 (via Miami Dolphins)
  • Round 5, Pick 164
  • Round 5, Pick 173 (compensatory)
  • Round 6, Pick 216 (compensatory)
  • Round 7, Pick 222 (via Denver Broncos)
  • Round 7, Pick 247
  • Round 7, Pick 253 (compensatory)
  • Round 7, Pick 255 (compensatory)
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1 minute ago, Warfish said:

Because of the "sell it to the fans" comment, which was my primary objection, if you will. :)

Not sure I agree that it's this strait forward.

Again, a better pick in 2024 may be better than a worse pick in 2023.

2024 may be preferable if GB thinks that class will be better.  Or if that timing works better for them, especially at QB.

For example, lets say Jordan Love busts in 2023, looks like total Wilsonian poop.  They're not invested in him long-term yet, they can pivot.

A higher 2024 pick (or multiple higher picks), in a superior QB class, is quite a bit more valuable than a lower pick in 2023.

Just one example.

Not gonna debate each point here, but this just reads a fan wishful thinking.  You wouldn't let it go past the draft, because you (as a fan) value the trade being completed over the desires of the GB GM.  This is the same as when Jets fans claim we have all the leverage (we don't).

I am sure the two GM's have deadlines in mind, and have clearly communicated that to each other.  For our sake, we're risking other teams coming in the longer this takes, less time for Rodgers to get acclimated here, or that the trade simply doesn't happen.  Given the alternatives (Wilson?  Whomever is left at QB at pick #13?) on this bases alone I hope it gets done and done pre-draft and soon as possible.

Hmmm.  

You have this all backwards. As I explicitly stated, when looking at it from the GB GM's perspective, I believe it would be very silly to wait a year to collect assets for Aaron Rodgers - assets that can help your team and Jordan Love now.  As I said, I would LOVE IT if the Jets could trade for Aaron Rodgers after the draft, without having to give any picks away in this year's draft. That would make my day - namely, because it would give us the chance to make next year's team that much better.. Where do I sign? I just don't see why that would be beneficial to the Packers at all.

My take has always been that the Jet can out wait the Packers because the Jets don't really have to trade for Rodgers until training camp (they traded for Favre in August). I don't see a realistic scenario where the Packers are willing to wait that long. You can even argue the Packers would be wise to do the trade before the start of offseason programs, which is on April 17 (although I don't consider that a hard deadline). 

As for other teams getting involved, that is definitely a risk and something I have been worried about all along, but the longer this goes without hearing any credible reporting about another team asking to speak to Rodgers, the less and less I worry about it. 

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6 minutes ago, y2k8 said:

Here are the draft picks the 49ers can offer for the 2023 Draft since they don't have a pick in the 1st or 2nd round:

  • Round 3, Pick 99 (compensatory)
  • Round 3, Pick 101 (compensatory)
  • Round 3, Pick 102 (compensatory)
  • Round 5, Pick 155 (via Miami Dolphins)
  • Round 5, Pick 164
  • Round 5, Pick 173 (compensatory)
  • Round 6, Pick 216 (compensatory)
  • Round 7, Pick 222 (via Denver Broncos)
  • Round 7, Pick 247
  • Round 7, Pick 253 (compensatory)
  • Round 7, Pick 255 (compensatory)

Right, which is why they only become a realistic option after the 2023 draft, assuming GB is willing to forgo getting picks back this year (which I doubt, but we'll see). 

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12 minutes ago, Warfish said:

To each their own.

If I'm GB's GM, I'm asking for the Jets 2024 #1 (non negotiable), and a conditional #3 that escalated to a #2 if the Rodgers plays X # of games and the Jets make the postseason, plus more.

Load up in 2024 hard, to either support Love with a refresh/rebuild as needed, or to have the ammo to replace Love with the #1 overall QB prospect.

2023 isn't some super meaningful year for GB, a win or everyone gets fired type year.  GB's management is pretty comfortable right now, all things considered.  No hot seats here.  Not like us, for example...

I'm telling you, if the Packers don't have a decent season, there is a decent chance Gutekunst and LaFleur aren't here in 2024. There is a sense out here that this regime has peaked (Gutekunst got here in 2018) and also alienated their all time QB. They either need to have a decent season or Love has to show really good potential, IMO. 

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2 hours ago, Green Ghost said:

“We can’t sign Aaron Rodgers. We have Sam Darnold” said no team ever…

Aaron Rodgers cap hit to a team that trades for him is only $16mm in 2023.  Most teams can figure out a way to make that happen.  

The 49ers can move Darnold, or Lance.   The Jets would take either. 

Why not the Dolphins?  Mike White?  He can be moved or QB2/3.   Tua can be moved.  The Jets would take him.

I do agree that GB is trying to stir the pot.  

The issue is not fitting Rodgers in under the cap.  The issue is whether a team feels that they have a good enough team in place to mortgage their future now and pay for it later.  The Jets feel that way-I am not sure I agree with that.  But I think the Dolphins are even better situated than the Jets because overall they have a better roster.  Rodgers for 1-2 years is an upgrade over Tua. 

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5 minutes ago, varjet said:

Aaron Rodgers cap hit to a team that trades for him is only $16mm in 2023.  Most teams can figure out a way to make that happen.  

The 49ers can move Darnold, or Lance.   The Jets would take either. 

Why not the Dolphins?  Mike White?  He can be moved or QB2/3.   Tua can be moved.  The Jets would take him.

I do agree that GB is trying to stir the pot.  

The issue is not fitting Rodgers in under the cap.  The issue is whether a team feels that they have a good enough team in place to mortgage their future now and pay for it later.  The Jets feel that way-I am not sure I agree with that.  But I think the Dolphins are even better situated than the Jets because overall they have a better roster.  Rodgers for 1-2 years is an upgrade over Tua. 

The Dolphins just picked up Tua's 5th year option and publicly committed to him for this year. Wouldn't they have already pursued Rodgers if they were going to?  The 49ers have no 1st or 2nd round picks in this year's draft, so aren't a threat to the Jets until after the draft.

Do you have a more realistic team? 

 

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12 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

The Dolphins just picked up Tua's 5th year option and publicly committed to him for this year. Wouldn't they have already pursued Rodgers if they were going to?  The 49ers have no 1st or 2nd round picks in this year's draft, so aren't a threat to the Jets until after the draft.

Do you have a more realistic team? 

 

It think if the 49ers gave GB one of their their third round picks this year and their 1/2 next year (maybe the 1 if they win a playoff game. otherwise a 2), this deal gets done.  

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7 minutes ago, varjet said:

It think if the 49ers gave GB one of their their third round picks this year and their 1/2 next year (maybe the 1 if they win a playoff game. otherwise a 2), this deal gets done.  

How? the Jets can do the same deal but give them 42 or 43 this year. 42 beats any of SF's 3rd round picks. 

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35 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

 

 

Right, which is why they only become a realistic option after the 2023 draft, assuming GB is willing to forgo getting picks back this year (which I doubt, but we'll see). 

If Rodgers plays for the 49ers, they are immediately the favorites in the NFC and their picks would all be late rounders. I just don't see them being able to offer more than the Jets will. Nevermind that the 49ers play in the same conference. 

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1 hour ago, slimjasi said:

You seem to be approaching the fan comment from an economic and  organizational perspective, for which I agree with some of your points. But, what I'm saying is, if you are the HC and GM of the Packers, you want assets now. If you go 6-11 next year with Jordan Love struggling, there is no guarantee you are back in 2024 to make the picks you got for Rodgers. The likelihood of this goes up should Rodgers play well in New York (or anywhere else, for that matter). 

As for the discussion regarding 2023 vs. 2024 picks - I don't see it. I would definitely want 2023 picks. By convention, this year's picks are considered to be a full round more valuable then next year's picks (2024 1st is worth a 2023 2nd, etc.,) and you have the opportunity to land an immediate impact player (or more?) that can help you right away. I'll put it this way, It's hard for me  to imagine the Packers getting more overall draft value for Rodgers if they wait until after this year's draft. 

If I were the Packers GM, the latest I would let this go is draft weekend. My internal deadline would be when the Jets are on the clock for pick 42 (assuming 13 is really off the table). Now, I WOULD be desperately trying to get another team in the mix, to drive up the price. (IF there is a third team in he mix, maybe they can get a first round pick, after all?)

But, to me, if the Packers wait until after the draft to trade Rodgers to the Jets and let the Jets use all of their 2023 picks, then the Jets won. In fact, as a Jets fan, where do I sign for that scenario?

That last paragraph is a terrible take.   The jets have the leverage before the draft.   If the draft comes and goes GB can sit on him all summer.   And don’t think for a second that just because Favre came in at the last second and was great that Rodgers will be.   This is a way more complicated offense that becomes twice as hard because Rodgers runs his own version of it.   He needs time with all these players (and including the OLINE not named Lazard

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