Guess some of you need to hear this: Zach Wilson (and his $23 mil 5th yr option) has no Future in NY

[rangerous]

57 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Alex wasn’t supplanted by a franchise QB for 2 years. He also took a pay cut in yr 4 and lost his job in TC to jags. 

Alex wasn’t just supplanted by a fab. He was supplanted by a guy who may very well turn out to be the goat.  As for smiths career, it shows how important it is for even a qb to have good coaching and a good team surrounding him to have success.  I don’t believe Zach had very good coaching from milfy in his first two seasons and the jets were missing some key pieces.

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

11 hours ago, k-met57 said:

The worst. Jets fans live to be punched in the dick.

I prefer the balls

[Dcat]

2 hours ago, Jetfuel66 said:

your emotional hatred for this player is obvious.

I don't see one iota of "emotional hatred" in the OP.  I see a view based on the logic of finances in the NFL and a prediction based theron that Zach will be moved or otherwise gone no later than end of yr 4.  It's just a prediction.  Where do you see any emotion?

The emotions I see in this thread are for those hoping for a Zach Wilson turn around.  Man, that would be great as unlikely as it is. 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

I don’t like how Zach is dividing our board … 

Bring it in everyone.  

 

[Dcat]

11 hours ago, JetsYanks13 said:

The topic is completely irrelevant at this point in time. Let’s enjoy an upcoming season for once. There’s finally some excitement surrounding this team!


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

^This.  It really is. Why now @Paradis?  Bored?  

[Reasonable Jets Fan]

4 minutes ago, Dcat said:

I don't see one iota of "emotional hatred" in the OP.  I see a view based on the logic of finances in the NFL and a prediction based theron that Zach will be moved or otherwise gone no later than end of yr 4.  It's just a prediction.  Where do you see any emotion?

The emotions I see in this thread are for those hoping for a Zach Wilson turn around.  Man, that would be great as unlikely as it is. 

If it's an opinion, that's fine, but he doesn't state anywhere in his rant that it's an opinion... It's worded that these are facts and you have to face the truth... But none of those are facts but opinions on how JD will deal with Zach 2 YEARS from now. 

All we are saying is none of this needed to be said and he could be absolutely wrong, so coming at everyone like he has all the answers is where I take offense. 

[jetblue95]

11 hours ago, Paradis said:

Probably some desperate albatross contract offered by a dying regime in LV, or WSH — in hopes of what a 3 year remodeling might look like, but he’ll be a FA at worst in going into 2025 and we will most certainly NOT be offering him the best deal 

 

11 hours ago, Paradis said:

My point here is not to argue about Zach. In fact it’s the opposite. There’s nothing to argue about. He’s a meddling back up who will be gone. Nothing to see here 

 

so your argument is that zach sucks, everyone knows it, and yet some other team will give him an albatross contract out of desperation?

sounds logical... 

[Sperm Edwards]

3 minutes ago, Reasonable Jets Fan said:

If it's an opinion, that's fine, but he doesn't state anywhere in his rant that it's an opinion... It's worded that these are facts and you have to face the truth... But none of those are facts but opinions on how JD will deal with Zach 2 YEARS from now. 

All we are saying is none of this needed to be said and he could be absolutely wrong, so coming at everyone like he has all the answers is where I take offense. 

One year. Technically, less than one year.

The main area where he makes a big mistake in straying from potential outcomes is the idea that a 5th year option is exercised or he cannot be on the roster. I think it’s unlikely he’s here for the post-Rodgers era, but lots of 1st rounders stick on their drafted teams after failing to get that 5th year exercised. As a lot of players are brought along more slowly, they really need to ball-out in their first or second year of fulltime action to get an effective guaranteed contract extension after year 3.

The main area where you make a big mistake is in taking offense to it. He’s ranting. We all do it.

I even admire the restraint at the low number of paragraphs he used. IMO one is not making one’s argument effectively if said argument fails to hammer that same point multiple times one after the other, and take up the whole screen with that and then further ramble by wandering off into unrelated tangent topics, like I’ve just done here so exquisitely. 

[doitny]

34 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I’m not as worried about those contracts coming up. When they come due they still get 1-2 years more before they enter major cap hit territory, and RBs just don’t get paid anymore (they’re now below - or at least in the same ballpark as - TEs). 

They won’t have Mosley eating up $21MM in cap space. They won’t have Lawson either by then (def not at even at his now-reduced rate). It’s at best a guess to think JFM is still in the (2026 version of) ~$15MM+ range himself by then, and if they figure he’s just expendable anyhow. Reed is also unlikely to still be at the top of his game taking up borderline CB1 cap space. Ditto Corey Davis in 8-figure territory himself. Same with Laken Tomlinson. Uzomah won’t be here getting paid $8MM/year himself and Conklin is at best 50/50 to predict to still be starting here 3 years into the future. 

QW will still be here, and will be in his highest cap-hitting seasons. They’ll of course sign some other veterans with higher pricetags, but everyone need not be replaced 1 for 1. 

Point is, it’s doable same as they can fit Rodgers now & could’ve also fit him even without the pay reduction (though it will sure help). Wilson would have to first show he’s worth it, and that timing has to coincide with when they need him to 180 from his prior play. They’re nowhere near that stage as things stand today, though. 

true but all those guys you mentioned wont be replace by rookies making 1 million a year. some if not all of them will be replaced by FAs probably making similar money. well except for CJ, i cant see us paying another MLB 21 million.

plus even though RBs dont make alot Hall in 2025 will have a cap hit of 2.8 million. im expecting he will have a nice raise from that. even if its around 8 mil a year thats almost 6 million more in cap space we need.

point was the post i was answering said we would have extra money to give Zach and i just dont see it for ZACH. 2 million or so extra lying around to outbid someone for his services.

oh and we both forgot about AVT who 5th year extension with be in 2025.

i found something on "over the cap" i didnt know. that 5th year extension gets higher the more pro bowls you are named to. 

• Basic: Players who do not meet any of the requirements below will be eligible for a fifth year base salary calculated from the average of the 3rd to 25th highest salaries at their position over the past five seasons.

• Playtime: These players will be eligible for a fifth year base salary calculated from the average of the 3rd to 20th highest salaries at their position over the past five seasons, provided that their snap counts over their first three seasons meet one of the following three criteria:

  • 75% or greater in two of their first three seasons
  • an average of 75% or greater over all three seasons
  • 50% or greater over all three seasons

• One Pro Bowl: Players who are named to exactly one Pro Bowl on the original ballot (not as an alternate) will be eligible for a fifth year base salary equal to the transition tender at their position.

• Multiple Pro Bowls: Players who are named to two or three Pro Bowls on the original ballot (not as an alternate) will be eligible for a fifth year base salary equal to the franchise tender at their position.

ick	Player	Team	Position		Basic	Playtime	1 Pro Bowl	>1 Pro Bowl
1	Joe Burrow*	Bengals	QB		$20,272,000	$23,171,000	$29,504,000	$32,416,000
2	Chase Young	Commanders	EDGE (DE)		$12,141,000	$13,212,000	$17,452,000	$19,727,000
5	Tua Tagovailoa*	Dolphins	QB		$20,272,000	$23,171,000	$29,504,000	$32,416,000
7	Derrick Brown*	Panthers	IDL (DT)		$10,455,000	$11,665,000	$16,068,000	$18,937,000
8	Isaiah Simmons	Cardinals	LB		$11,727,000	$12,722,000	$17,478,000	$20,926,000
9	C.J. Henderson	Panthers	CB		$11,514,000	$12,344,000	$15,791,000	$18,140,000
10	Jedrick Wills*	Browns	LT (OL)		$13,565,000	$14,175,000	$16,660,000	$18,244,000
11	Mekhi Becton	Jets	RT (OL)		$13,565,000	$14,175,000	$16,660,000	$18,244,000
13	Tristan Wirfs*	Buccaneers	RT (OL)		$13,565,000	$14,175,000	$16,660,000	$18,244,000
14	Javon Kinlaw	49ers	IDL (DT)		$10,455,000	$11,665,000	$16,068,000	$18,937,000
15	Jerry Jeudy*	Broncos	WR		$12,987,000	$14,124,000	$17,991,000	$19,743,000
16	A.J. Terrell*	Falcons	CB		$11,514,000	$12,344,000	$15,791,000	$18,140,000
17	CeeDee Lamb*	Cowboys	WR		$12,987,000	$14,124,000	$17,991,000	$19,743,000
18	Austin Jackson	Dolphins	RT (OL)		$13,565,000	$14,175,000	$16,660,000	$18,244,000
20	K'Lavon Chaisson	Jaguars	EDGE (DE)		$12,141,000	$13,212,000	$17,452,000	$19,727,000
21	Jalen Reagor	Vikings	WR		$12,987,000	$14,124,000	$17,991,000	$19,743,000
22	Justin Jefferson*	Vikings	WR		$12,987,000	$14,124,000	$17,991,000	$19,743,000
23	Kenneth Murray	Chargers	LB		$11,727,000	$12,722,000	$17,478,000	$20,926,000
24	Cesar Ruiz	Saints	RG (OL)		$13,565,000	$14,175,000	$16,660,000	$18,244,000
25	Brandon Aiyuk*	49ers	WR		$12,987,000	$14,124,000	$17,991,000	$19,743,000
27	Jordyn Brooks	Seahawks	LB		$11,727,000	$12,722,000	$17,478,000	$20,926,000
28	Patrick Queen	Ravens	LB		$11,727,000	$12,722,000	$17,478,000	$20,926,000
30	Noah Igbinoghene	Dolphins	CB		$11,514,000	$12,344,000	$15,791,000	$18,140,000
32	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	Chiefs	RB		$5,461,000	$5,994,000	$8,429,000	$10,091,00

 

how many Pro Bowls has AVT been to? sause and GW ? 

AVT has a 5 million cap hit in 2024. how much will that cap hit be if his extension is close to 20 million? i think the whole 20 right? thats 15 million more in cap space need in 2025.

im sure JD will find a way to make this all work but to say we have extra money to give Zach more money than any other team to play one more year to prove it , i just dont see it.

[Dcat]

10 hours ago, Hal said:

Lol.   Another Zach thread. 

It's your fault. Somehow.

[Dcat]

8 hours ago, JKlecko said:

I know you think you know everything, that's obvious by the tone of your posts, but you don't.  In fact, you have no eye for QB talent if you think Zach doesn't have any talent, you have no imagination/creativity when it comes to player contracts, and no idea what the Jets think about Zach or Zach thinks about the Jets.  A lot of things could change between now and 2025.  God forbid, Rodgers could get hurt this season, miss 3-4 games late in the season, and Zach could play at a high level and save the season. Therefore, it's totally ridiculous to make a post like yours at this time.

Since you can't seem to envision a scenario under which Zach could stay or why the Jets would want to keep him or why he might want to stay, I'll spell it out for you.

This is Zach's 3rd season. If Zach continues to learn and fixes his issues before the end of this season. the Jets could decide to offer Zach a reasonable 1-2 year extension that would begin in the 2025 season that was filled with easily achieved incentives/goals, and escalators that would increase the value and the length of the contract to 4-5 years if he played well in 2025 and the team made the playoffs.  Even if they don't do it following this season, they could do it during next season, as he continues to show that he is ready to take over the reins.  It would be to the Jets advantage to be able to salvage Zach and have Rodgers' heir apparent.  It could be to Zach's advantage to stay here on a young hungry team where he knows everyone, knows the scheme, and has developed chemistry with his receivers.  If Zach then succeeded he would become an all-time great in the NYC sports pantheon.  He might stay out of pride, not wanting to have his time here be a failure.  He might stay out of gratitude for the Jets not giving up on him and continuing to believe in him.  It doesn't matter what the agent does, Zach will make the call where he wants to play. Rodgers isn't just have an impact on Zach's mechanics and reading Ds.  I'd be willing to be he's influencing his attitudes as well.  After seeing Rodgers give back $35 million, Zach could easily decide to help the Jets and at the same time bet on himself to succeed and achieve any and all incentives so be willing to take the risk of making less money.

He also could just play out the short-term extension, would have proved himself for overcoming the adversity he has faced in the bright glare of NYC, and he could pretty much write his own ticket to whereever he wanted to play.  The point is NO ONE knows what will happen over the next two years, if Zach will wind up playing during the regular season, and if so, how he will play.  If he plays very well, no one knows what the Jets or Zach will do and/or how they will react, so it's totally ridiculous for any fan to make so many posts as if you know the future and what's going to happen.  You don't.

Zach would have more worth to the Jets than to any other team for a couple of reasons, so they could be willing to pay him more than any other team.  One, they know that he knows the system, already has chemistry with the receivers, and if they're willing to offer him another contract or an extension, they believe that he will be their FQB going forward. Two, if Zach won't be the successor, then they're going to have a very hard time finding a quality QB to succeed Rodgers.  They'll be drafting at the bottom of the round and won't have the draft position to get an elite QB prospect, so would either have to roll the dice and hope they could find another Tom Brady somwhere below the 1st round or would have to mortgage their future to trade up to draft another elite QB prospect.  In that scenario, they wouldn't have a quality vet for the rookie QB to sit and learn behind, so it could be a similar situation to what Zach went through, except we'd have an experienced OC and HC.  Chances are that they wouldn't be able to trade for a good QB or sign one in FA, either because this year was an anomaly.  Very good/great QBs usually don't be come availble except at the very end of their careers. So Zach would solve the problem of whom the successor would be, and would also remove all the criticism that JD has taken for drafting Zach. It would prove that he, the Jets Scouts, and CS was right initially.  It would also provide greater stability and continuity.

In 4 paragraphs, you used the word "if" 10 times, the word "could" 10 times and the word "might" twice.

When you combine probabilities, the overall likelihood declines.  Combining all of your if's and maybes... sure it's possible, but so unlikely that you kind of wasted your time writing it all.  But mystical fantasies sometimes do come true I guess.

[Sperm Edwards]

1 minute ago, doitny said:

true but all those guys you mentioned wont be replace by rookies making 1 million a year. some if not all of them will be replaced by FAs probably making similar money. well except for CJ, i cant see us paying another MLB 21 million.

plus even though RBs dont make alot Hall in 2025 will have a cap hit of 2.8 million. im expecting he will have a nice raise from that. even if its around 8 mil a year thats almost 6 million more in cap space we need.

point was the post i was answering said we would have extra money to give Zach and i just dont see it for ZACH. 2 million or so extra lying around to outbid someone for his services.

oh and we both forgot about AVT who 5th year extension with be in 2025.

i found something on "over the cap" i didnt know. that 5th year extension gets higher the more pro bowls you are named to. 

• Basic: Players who do not meet any of the requirements below will be eligible for a fifth year base salary calculated from the average of the 3rd to 25th highest salaries at their position over the past five seasons.

• Playtime: These players will be eligible for a fifth year base salary calculated from the average of the 3rd to 20th highest salaries at their position over the past five seasons, provided that their snap counts over their first three seasons meet one of the following three criteria:

  • 75% or greater in two of their first three seasons
  • an average of 75% or greater over all three seasons
  • 50% or greater over all three seasons

• One Pro Bowl: Players who are named to exactly one Pro Bowl on the original ballot (not as an alternate) will be eligible for a fifth year base salary equal to the transition tender at their position.

• Multiple Pro Bowls: Players who are named to two or three Pro Bowls on the original ballot (not as an alternate) will be eligible for a fifth year base salary equal to the franchise tender at their position.

ick	Player	Team	Position		Basic	Playtime	1 Pro Bowl	>1 Pro Bowl
1	Joe Burrow*	Bengals	QB		$20,272,000	$23,171,000	$29,504,000	$32,416,000
2	Chase Young	Commanders	EDGE (DE)		$12,141,000	$13,212,000	$17,452,000	$19,727,000
5	Tua Tagovailoa*	Dolphins	QB		$20,272,000	$23,171,000	$29,504,000	$32,416,000
7	Derrick Brown*	Panthers	IDL (DT)		$10,455,000	$11,665,000	$16,068,000	$18,937,000
8	Isaiah Simmons	Cardinals	LB		$11,727,000	$12,722,000	$17,478,000	$20,926,000
9	C.J. Henderson	Panthers	CB		$11,514,000	$12,344,000	$15,791,000	$18,140,000
10	Jedrick Wills*	Browns	LT (OL)		$13,565,000	$14,175,000	$16,660,000	$18,244,000
11	Mekhi Becton	Jets	RT (OL)		$13,565,000	$14,175,000	$16,660,000	$18,244,000
13	Tristan Wirfs*	Buccaneers	RT (OL)		$13,565,000	$14,175,000	$16,660,000	$18,244,000
14	Javon Kinlaw	49ers	IDL (DT)		$10,455,000	$11,665,000	$16,068,000	$18,937,000
15	Jerry Jeudy*	Broncos	WR		$12,987,000	$14,124,000	$17,991,000	$19,743,000
16	A.J. Terrell*	Falcons	CB		$11,514,000	$12,344,000	$15,791,000	$18,140,000
17	CeeDee Lamb*	Cowboys	WR		$12,987,000	$14,124,000	$17,991,000	$19,743,000
18	Austin Jackson	Dolphins	RT (OL)		$13,565,000	$14,175,000	$16,660,000	$18,244,000
20	K'Lavon Chaisson	Jaguars	EDGE (DE)		$12,141,000	$13,212,000	$17,452,000	$19,727,000
21	Jalen Reagor	Vikings	WR		$12,987,000	$14,124,000	$17,991,000	$19,743,000
22	Justin Jefferson*	Vikings	WR		$12,987,000	$14,124,000	$17,991,000	$19,743,000
23	Kenneth Murray	Chargers	LB		$11,727,000	$12,722,000	$17,478,000	$20,926,000
24	Cesar Ruiz	Saints	RG (OL)		$13,565,000	$14,175,000	$16,660,000	$18,244,000
25	Brandon Aiyuk*	49ers	WR		$12,987,000	$14,124,000	$17,991,000	$19,743,000
27	Jordyn Brooks	Seahawks	LB		$11,727,000	$12,722,000	$17,478,000	$20,926,000
28	Patrick Queen	Ravens	LB		$11,727,000	$12,722,000	$17,478,000	$20,926,000
30	Noah Igbinoghene	Dolphins	CB		$11,514,000	$12,344,000	$15,791,000	$18,140,000
32	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	Chiefs	RB		$5,461,000	$5,994,000	$8,429,000	$10,091,00

 

how many Pro Bowls has AVT been to? sause and GW ? 

AVT has a 5 million cap hit in 2024. how much will that cap hit be if his extension is close to 20 million? i think the whole 20 right? thats 15 million more in cap space need in 2025.

im sure JD will find a way to make this all work but to say we have extra money to give Zach more money than any other team to play one more year to prove it , i just dont see it.

AVT has been to zero pro bowls. He was good not great as a rookie, and then missed most of last year.

I don’t for a second think every starter they lose (or let go of voluntarily) will be replaced by a draft pick, but they don’t have to do that either. 

Those extensions don’t come with cap hits at the contract average right away; unless it’s a short contract it takes at least 2 years before reaching that average, and by then they can backload it further (which gets easier still with the rate at which the cap is rising).

If you really want to get into something interesting as far as future cap space, check out Jason’s projections for the future cap ceilings. Bottom line, while it’s at ~$225MM right now, it’ll be up over $300MM before Sauce or G.Wilson have high cap numbers. Their going rates will go up, but likely not as quickly as the cap ceiling rises, especially if Douglas locks them up longer term as soon as they’re permitted (March of 2025).

That’ll be interesting to see how they’re handled, because extending players early has decidedly not been the Douglas way. I’ll grant you there hasn’t been much opportunity, given the mostly sh***y rookie-contract players we’ve had the prior 5-7 years; really just Leo, Anderson, Adams, and QW, and he only eventually kept QW (two years after he was first eligible for an extension). 

[Warfish]

10 hours ago, rtnelson said:

Just because they don't take the 5th year option doesn't mean they can't sign him to a cheaper contract.

A contract he'd have to want to accept. 

What on earth makes you think he likes NY that much, likes NY Fans, NY media or his time (so far) in NY? 

What makes you think his advisors (like Steve Young, for one) would advise him to stay in NY?

What makes you think he (or his Mom) want to stay here, if any option exists to get him to a more historically successful team, or better QB developing team, or west coast-based team?  Or for more money than we might offer?

10 hours ago, rtnelson said:

ZW and his family likely knows the best chance to succeed is with the Jets.

An amazingly homer thing to say. 

Pretty sure if he went to San Francisco (for example) his "chance to succeed" would be just fine.

Pretty sure HE doesn't feel like we've given him "the best chance to succeed" so far in his time in NY.  His Mom and his advisors certainly don't think that.

[Dcat]

29 minutes ago, Reasonable Jets Fan said:

If it's an opinion, that's fine, but he doesn't state anywhere in his rant that it's an opinion... It's worded that these are facts and you have to face the truth... But none of those are facts but opinions on how JD will deal with Zach 2 YEARS from now. 

All we are saying is none of this needed to be said and he could be absolutely wrong, so coming at everyone like he has all the answers is where I take offense. 

You are one of those who got all emotional, be it the angry mob or the teary-eyed bunches. The OP expressed zero hatred. It's an NFL contractual/salary cap type of decision and Zach would have to be way more than a competent back-up (which at this point he has a lot to prove) to even be considered to hang around here on some alternative to the 5th year option, which will NOT be exercised, absent a Rodgers injury followed by Zach taking us to playoffs.  There is no financial logical reason to exercise that option.  Any GM would be a bufoon for doing so.

[Dcat]

11 hours ago, David Harris said:

Yeah, but we’ll sign Jordan Love in 15 years

By that time Favre will be released from prison and can coach him up.

[Dcat]

10 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Nobody’s said we should pick up his 5th year option.  That we won’t offer him crazy money that no one would advocate today then somehow that becomes he won’t be here.  

Very unlikely. But whatever.  THe whole topic should be put into hibernation until season end anyway.

[Reasonable Jets Fan]

1 minute ago, Dcat said:

You are one of those who got all emotional, be it the angry mob or the teary-eyed bunches. The OP expressed zero hatred. It's an NFL contractual/salary cap type of decision and Zach would have to be way more than a competent back-up (which at this point he has a lot to prove) to even be considered to hang around here on some alternative to the 5th year option, which will NOT be exercised, absent a Rodgers injury followed by Zach taking us to playoffs.  There is no financial logical reason to exercise that option.  Any GM would be a bufoon for doing so.

He also stated no facts... But opinions... Again this is no different then the mob that wanted to ship out QW for anything because he failed to be an all star after 2 years. Wasted draft pick they say... Now where are those posters... Just moving on to another target. 

[Warfish]

Just now, Reasonable Jets Fan said:

He also stated no facts... But opinions... Again this is no different then the mob that wanted to ship out QW for anything because he failed to be an all star after 2 years. Wasted draft pick they say... Now where are those posters... Just moving on to another target. 

Do you believe, today, that Zach Wilson will be resigned here in NY beyond his fourth season?

Do you believe, today, that he will be the Jets starting QB in 2024/5/6 after Aaron Rodgers departs?

[Dcat]

8 hours ago, JKlecko said:

The only thing that is folly is your thinking that you're so smart and know everything.  You are clueless.  Know-it-all Jets fans and posters like you are a dime a dozen on Jets fan sites, and you all drag the level of conversation/discussion down.  

1. Paradis is indeed smart.  

2. He hasn't claimed to "know everything"

3. He's expressed zero "hatred" or emotion of any kind, no matter how much you imagine it's there.

4. You are the one overly emotional here and raging.  Plus, you just love hyperbole.

Quote

drag the level of conversation/discussion down

How ironic.

[Reasonable Jets Fan]

1 minute ago, Warfish said:

Do you believe, today, that Zach Wilson will be resigned here in NY beyond his fourth season?

Do you believe, today, that he will be the Jets starting QB in 2024/5/6 after Aaron Rodgers departs?

I don't know... The jets also don't have to make that decision for a year and 2 years before they know if they offer another contract... 

Point is that the answer is incomplete and there is nothing that needs to be done for a year... 

Again presenting an opinion as fact that this is the answer and you need to face the truth... But it isn't fact and nothing needs to be discussed for a year

[Darnold Schwarzenegger]

Honestly can’t believe how many jet fans are holding out hope that ZW can become a serviceable qb.

[Dcat]

1 hour ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Zach Wilson: has a good preseason performance showing some progress

Where have we heard this before? It's like an echo in a canyon coming back every off season for the last 2 years.

[UntouchableCrew]

12 hours ago, Paradis said:

Seriously, some of you need to be walked through this?… Forget his dumpster fire play on the field — Aaron committing to at least 2024 officially (and thankfully) ends any speculation. 

we’re not picking up Zach’s roughly $23+ million dollar 5th year option. 

we’re not gonna double down on him with an extension in 2024 after backing up Arod for 2 yrs

we’re not going to forego drafting a QB in 2025 or signing a veteran because “let’s run it back with Zach”

it’s over. Done. He’ll be cut or traded long before he ever gets named QB1 again here. 

This feels incredibly obvious to me.

He's unplayably bad and we traded for a 39 year old who is committed to the remainder of the life of his contract. 

More likely he's out of the league in 2025 than on the Jets.

[Dcat]

36 minutes ago, doitny said:

true but all those guys you mentioned wont be replace by rookies making 1 million a year. some if not all of them will be replaced by FAs probably making similar money. well except for CJ, i cant see us paying another MLB 21 million.

plus even though RBs dont make alot Hall in 2025 will have a cap hit of 2.8 million. im expecting he will have a nice raise from that. even if its around 8 mil a year thats almost 6 million more in cap space we need.

point was the post i was answering said we would have extra money to give Zach and i just dont see it for ZACH. 2 million or so extra lying around to outbid someone for his services.

oh and we both forgot about AVT who 5th year extension with be in 2025.

i found something on "over the cap" i didnt know. that 5th year extension gets higher the more pro bowls you are named to. 

• Basic: Players who do not meet any of the requirements below will be eligible for a fifth year base salary calculated from the average of the 3rd to 25th highest salaries at their position over the past five seasons.

• Playtime: These players will be eligible for a fifth year base salary calculated from the average of the 3rd to 20th highest salaries at their position over the past five seasons, provided that their snap counts over their first three seasons meet one of the following three criteria:

  • 75% or greater in two of their first three seasons
  • an average of 75% or greater over all three seasons
  • 50% or greater over all three seasons

• One Pro Bowl: Players who are named to exactly one Pro Bowl on the original ballot (not as an alternate) will be eligible for a fifth year base salary equal to the transition tender at their position.

• Multiple Pro Bowls: Players who are named to two or three Pro Bowls on the original ballot (not as an alternate) will be eligible for a fifth year base salary equal to the franchise tender at their position.

ick	Player	Team	Position		Basic	Playtime	1 Pro Bowl	>1 Pro Bowl
1	Joe Burrow*	Bengals	QB		$20,272,000	$23,171,000	$29,504,000	$32,416,000
2	Chase Young	Commanders	EDGE (DE)		$12,141,000	$13,212,000	$17,452,000	$19,727,000
5	Tua Tagovailoa*	Dolphins	QB		$20,272,000	$23,171,000	$29,504,000	$32,416,000
7	Derrick Brown*	Panthers	IDL (DT)		$10,455,000	$11,665,000	$16,068,000	$18,937,000
8	Isaiah Simmons	Cardinals	LB		$11,727,000	$12,722,000	$17,478,000	$20,926,000
9	C.J. Henderson	Panthers	CB		$11,514,000	$12,344,000	$15,791,000	$18,140,000
10	Jedrick Wills*	Browns	LT (OL)		$13,565,000	$14,175,000	$16,660,000	$18,244,000
11	Mekhi Becton	Jets	RT (OL)		$13,565,000	$14,175,000	$16,660,000	$18,244,000
13	Tristan Wirfs*	Buccaneers	RT (OL)		$13,565,000	$14,175,000	$16,660,000	$18,244,000
14	Javon Kinlaw	49ers	IDL (DT)		$10,455,000	$11,665,000	$16,068,000	$18,937,000
15	Jerry Jeudy*	Broncos	WR		$12,987,000	$14,124,000	$17,991,000	$19,743,000
16	A.J. Terrell*	Falcons	CB		$11,514,000	$12,344,000	$15,791,000	$18,140,000
17	CeeDee Lamb*	Cowboys	WR		$12,987,000	$14,124,000	$17,991,000	$19,743,000
18	Austin Jackson	Dolphins	RT (OL)		$13,565,000	$14,175,000	$16,660,000	$18,244,000
20	K'Lavon Chaisson	Jaguars	EDGE (DE)		$12,141,000	$13,212,000	$17,452,000	$19,727,000
21	Jalen Reagor	Vikings	WR		$12,987,000	$14,124,000	$17,991,000	$19,743,000
22	Justin Jefferson*	Vikings	WR		$12,987,000	$14,124,000	$17,991,000	$19,743,000
23	Kenneth Murray	Chargers	LB		$11,727,000	$12,722,000	$17,478,000	$20,926,000
24	Cesar Ruiz	Saints	RG (OL)		$13,565,000	$14,175,000	$16,660,000	$18,244,000
25	Brandon Aiyuk*	49ers	WR		$12,987,000	$14,124,000	$17,991,000	$19,743,000
27	Jordyn Brooks	Seahawks	LB		$11,727,000	$12,722,000	$17,478,000	$20,926,000
28	Patrick Queen	Ravens	LB		$11,727,000	$12,722,000	$17,478,000	$20,926,000
30	Noah Igbinoghene	Dolphins	CB		$11,514,000	$12,344,000	$15,791,000	$18,140,000
32	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	Chiefs	RB		$5,461,000	$5,994,000	$8,429,000	$10,091,00

 

how many Pro Bowls has AVT been to? sause and GW ? 

AVT has a 5 million cap hit in 2024. how much will that cap hit be if his extension is close to 20 million? i think the whole 20 right? thats 15 million more in cap space need in 2025.

im sure JD will find a way to make this all work but to say we have extra money to give Zach more money than any other team to play one more year to prove it , i just dont see it.

I didn't know that there was such flexibility in the 5th yr option.  Wow.  Thanks. 

[Warfish]

14 minutes ago, Reasonable Jets Fan said:

I don't know...

So if you're so unsure, so uncertain that you cannot even venture a prediction of your own on the topic, why do you get so worked up when others make their own predictions?  

Sitting on the fence may be comfortable, but it's a bit much to sit there unwilling or unable to even venture a guess, while denouncing those who do, at least one side of those who do....

14 minutes ago, Reasonable Jets Fan said:

The jets also don't have to make that decision for a year and 2 years before they know if they offer another contract...

So?  We talk and speculate on the the future here all the time, on a myriad of topics.  We're all aware of the timing of Zach's current contract.

14 minutes ago, Reasonable Jets Fan said:

Point is that the answer is incomplete and there is nothing that needs to be done for a year... 

That's not a point, it's a punt.  

14 minutes ago, Reasonable Jets Fan said:

Again presenting an opinion as fact that this is the answer and you need to face the truth... But it isn't fact and nothing needs to be discussed for a year

If you're so adamant that it doesn't need discussed......why are you here discussing it?  Easy enough (seeing the thread title) to skip the thread, isn't it?

P.S. I want to be very clear, I think you're being dishonest in your "I don't know" answer here.  You've long been a mass-neg-repping pro-Zach Homer guy, a guy who neg-reps entire threads worth of posters whenever Zach criticism happens. 

You clearly side with one side of this argument/speculation, regardless of your unwillingness to actually put forth an opinion on the record now.   

[Darnold's Forehead]

This thread should be locked.  There is such a disconnect from reasoning shown by many posters here that proper discussion is not plausible.

Logical points get ignored with an immature Homer/WTF emote and the Zach Wilson emotions run wild.  Its pathetic.

[Barry McCockinner]

15 minutes ago, Dcat said:

Where have we heard this before? It's like an echo in a canyon coming back every off season for the last 2 years.

my point isn't to argue that Wilson does have a future here. Just pointing out that the timing seems weird. Dude did a lot of little things right on Saturday that he has struggled big time with his first 2 years. It looked like progress. Then we get this thread. Just seems funny to me.

[JiFtheOracle]

9 hours ago, JKlecko said:

I know you think you know everything, that's obvious by the tone of your posts, but you don't.  In fact, you have no eye for QB talent if you think Zach doesn't have any talent, you have no imagination/creativity when it comes to player contracts, and no idea what the Jets think about Zach or Zach thinks about the Jets.  A lot of things could change between now and 2025.  God forbid, Rodgers could get hurt this season, miss 3-4 games late in the season, and Zach could play at a high level and save the season. Therefore, it's totally ridiculous to make a post like yours at this time.

Since you can't seem to envision a scenario under which Zach could stay or why the Jets would want to keep him or why he might want to stay, I'll spell it out for you.

This is Zach's 3rd season. If Zach continues to learn and fixes his issues before the end of this season. the Jets could decide to offer Zach a reasonable 1-2 year extension that would begin in the 2025 season that was filled with easily achieved incentives/goals, and escalators that would increase the value and the length of the contract to 4-5 years if he played well in 2025 and the team made the playoffs.  Even if they don't do it following this season, they could do it during next season, as he continues to show that he is ready to take over the reins.  It would be to the Jets advantage to be able to salvage Zach and have Rodgers' heir apparent.  It could be to Zach's advantage to stay here on a young hungry team where he knows everyone, knows the scheme, and has developed chemistry with his receivers.  If Zach then succeeded he would become an all-time great in the NYC sports pantheon.  He might stay out of pride, not wanting to have his time here be a failure.  He might stay out of gratitude for the Jets not giving up on him and continuing to believe in him.  It doesn't matter what the agent does, Zach will make the call where he wants to play. Rodgers isn't just have an impact on Zach's mechanics and reading Ds.  I'd be willing to be he's influencing his attitudes as well.  After seeing Rodgers give back $35 million, Zach could easily decide to help the Jets and at the same time bet on himself to succeed and achieve any and all incentives so be willing to take the risk of making less money.

He also could just play out the short-term extension, would have proved himself for overcoming the adversity he has faced in the bright glare of NYC, and he could pretty much write his own ticket to whereever he wanted to play.  The point is NO ONE knows what will happen over the next two years, if Zach will wind up playing during the regular season, and if so, how he will play.  If he plays very well, no one knows what the Jets or Zach will do and/or how they will react, so it's totally ridiculous for any fan to make so many posts as if you know the future and what's going to happen.  You don't.

Zach would have more worth to the Jets than to any other team for a couple of reasons, so they could be willing to pay him more than any other team.  One, they know that he knows the system, already has chemistry with the receivers, and if they're willing to offer him another contract or an extension, they believe that he will be their FQB going forward. Two, if Zach won't be the successor, then they're going to have a very hard time finding a quality QB to succeed Rodgers.  They'll be drafting at the bottom of the round and won't have the draft position to get an elite QB prospect, so would either have to roll the dice and hope they could find another Tom Brady somwhere below the 1st round or would have to mortgage their future to trade up to draft another elite QB prospect.  In that scenario, they wouldn't have a quality vet for the rookie QB to sit and learn behind, so it could be a similar situation to what Zach went through, except we'd have an experienced OC and HC.  Chances are that they wouldn't be able to trade for a good QB or sign one in FA, either because this year was an anomaly.  Very good/great QBs usually don't be come availble except at the very end of their careers. So Zach would solve the problem of whom the successor would be, and would also remove all the criticism that JD has taken for drafting Zach. It would prove that he, the Jets Scouts, and CS was right initially.  It would also provide greater stability and continuity.

 

[Dunnie]

2 hours ago, Paradis said:

Fair enough. Emotional hatred tho? No. Tired of reading arguments about “every throw from our back up who is most likely adios” yes. And it’s not just a likelihood based on play trajectory. It’s a near certainty from a contract standpoint. Agents of soon-to-be 25 yr old former 2nd OVA free agent QBs aren’t in the habit of letting their clients hang around because “grooming”. 2 yrs behind Aaron Rodgers will get Zach a second chance in TEN or LV etc 

Then you will probably want to steer clear of the post I am formulating presenting Zach's extension as not only likely ... But an almost certain fact.

😂🤣😂😘

[nycdan]

Let's call it what it is.  

The original post was fine.  It's the thread title that was obnoxious-adjacent.  People are conflating the two and it's creating a lot of unnecessary nonsense.  True, the OP does not indicate any self-recognition that it's an opinion, and chooses to wrap itself up in a "I am a fact, you must all listen" tone.  But that's kind of normal here.  I also think the intent was absolutely to cause a stir.  Mission accomplished.  Trap baited....mouse-necks snapped.  Bravo.

Here's the only fact we all need to know.  None of us knows crap about that intent of either the Jets or Zach Wilson.  None of us knows what will happen in a year.  

Most importantly, it's completely irrelevant to the 2023 season which we are on the cusp of.  Emoting about a decision that will be made next May seems a little off-tone at the moment.  For the record, I agree that there is almost no way he gets extended.  However, I do not think that suggests any absolute path for his presence on the team in 2025.  And again, I really don't give a crap about that now.  In my opinion (see those words!) I don't think anyone else really should be that worked up over it either.

[Reasonable Jets Fan]

5 minutes ago, Warfish said:

So if you're so unsure, so uncertain that you cannot even venture a prediction of your own on the topic, why do you get so worked up when others make their own predictions?  

Sitting on the fence may be comfortable, but it's a bit much to sit there unwilling or unable to even venture a guess, while denouncing those who do, at least one side of those who do....

So?  We talk and speculate on the the future here all the time, on a myriad of topics.  We're all aware of the timing of Zach's current contract.

That's not a point, it's a punt.  

If you're so adamant that it doesn't need discussed......why are you here discussing it?  Easy enough (seeing the thread title) to skip the thread, isn't it?

P.S. I want to be very clear, I think you're being dishonest in your "I don't know" answer here.  You've long been a mass-neg-repping pro-Zach Homer guy, a guy who neg-reps entire threads worth of posters whenever Zach criticism happens. 

You clearly side with one side of this argument/speculation, regardless of your unwillingness to actually put forth an opinion on the record now.   

I am not for or against Zach... I just hate the extreme flood of people knowing the future... Just the same with Becton or Williams or anyone else... Discussion is fine... Presenting as fact is annoying because you come across as a know it all... 

This is why I brought up other predictions by paradise... 

The extreme narrative brings out the discussion but it also divides everyone on this board... Maybe that's the goal... 

Again the outcome is unlikely but there is a world where Zach becomes an NFL QB and presented other Qbs that were thrown out as done or garbage and revitalized their career but because this situation is unique (just like all theirs) the possibility is less than zero I think is the popular phrase... 

What is being said is an opinion but it's just weird the number of posters that won't even allow discussion that they could be wrong. 

[FootballLove]

1) ZW ain't going nowhere as long as he's under AR's wing.

2) Rodgers took a pay cut in part to allow JoeD to keep Zach around. Zach has become the son Aaron's never had.

3) If ZW has showed even a glimmer of hope/real improvement, Joe will try the 'jordan love' extension to keep ZW here for at least his first season post-Aaron. This part is on Zach. He has to remain open to criticism and direction from Rodgers/Hackett and others. And with that direction, he has to start playing like an NFL QB.

4) No one wants another decade of doom and gloom while rookie QB after rookie QB struggles to become a FQB, or a washed up Vet QB tries to restart his career.

5) 2025 when AR retires, Jets will have one of the most loaded rosters in the league....they aren't gonna hand that to a 2nd/3rd round rookie (we won't have a 1st pick), or even a washed up vet, unless they absolutely have no other choice. Again, that will be on ZW.

6) If JoeD gets a 'too-good-to-be-true' offer come trading deadline, ZW will be gone and JoeD will have 2 seasons to find AR's replacement. Short of that, it will be Zach time.

[TuscanyTile2]

12 hours ago, Paradis said:

Lol. You guys. 

Find me another  “drafted in the top 5 QB who sucked, got replaced by a franchise QB, and then decided to stick around for journeyman money after the smoke cleared”.  Where’s that list. 

4 hours ago, Reasonable Jets Fan said:

Alex smith

2 hours ago, Paradis said:

Alex wasn’t supplanted by a franchise QB for 2 years. He also took a pay cut in yr 4 and lost his job in TC to jags. 

I remember I used to say (in a mocking way) that Alex Smith was the kind of QB who was destined to end up on the Jets.  I thought he was mediocre at the time.   Looking back, though, I didn't give him enough credit.   I think he did eventually blossom into a QB you can absolutely win with.  

 

[rtnelson]

57 minutes ago, Warfish said:

A contract he'd have to want to accept. 

What on earth makes you think he likes NY that much, likes NY Fans, NY media or his time (so far) in NY? 

What makes you think his advisors (like Steve Young, for one) would advise him to stay in NY?

What makes you think he (or his Mom) want to stay here, if any option exists to get him to a more historically successful team, or better QB developing team, or west coast-based team?  Or for more money than we might offer?

An amazingly homer thing to say. 

Pretty sure if he went to San Francisco (for example) his "chance to succeed" would be just fine.

Pretty sure HE doesn't feel like we've given him "the best chance to succeed" so far in his time in NY.  His Mom and his advisors certainly don't think that.

My point is that we likely will be pretty decent over the next 2 years.  And if that's the case and AR hangs it up it's likely the easiest place to give it another shot as a starter if he has shown enough for the Jets to give him a smaller price it contract.  Nobody is likely to hire Hackett away as a HC again, and so it would be his third year in the system built by Hackett and Rodgers as tutored by Rodgers personally to him.  It's hard to say even going to SF would potentially be a better situation for him at that point.

If he fills in for injury a game or two over the next few years and plays well enough to win some games and doesn't look like Zach as we know him now.  The fans will slowly come around.

Also, if he isn't filling in for Rodgers he will be so far out of the public eye that he is likely to not get a better contract than what he would get from the Jets.

All of this hinges on him improving and JD, Saleh and Hackett actually wanting him.  Which it is very possible they won't.  They're just kind of stuck with him for the time being.

[DoubleDown]

Yeah, it's unlikely with the way things stand now.

But there is alot of football left to be played before a decision needs to be made on the 5th year option and subsequently any potential contract extension.  Making a definitive statement now in mid August prior to his third season and shunning all other possibilities seems kind of silly.