Dan Campbell cost the Lions SB appearance

[Jet_Engine1]

The Lions as a team overachieved for as long as they could until a better team beat them, yes.

 

BUT... Campbell's sudden onset of stubborn stupidity and complete lack of game awareness is what started the snowball rolling.

[Barry McCockinner]

2 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

If the Lions did recover that onsides kick, do you think Dan Campbell would've even taken a shot at a FG (if given the chance) or would he have tried for a Hail Mary?

 

[Jetsplayer21]

2 hours ago, Jet2020 said:

Last night was a terrible example of how to be aggressive. Up 24-7, you don’t need to be aggressive. Not in a playoff. You just need to ensure you get home safely. 

MISTAKE 1: Up 24-10, he chooses to give up a 35 yard FG to make it a 3 possession game and instead goes for it in 4th and 2 from the 28. Take the 3, make it a 3 possession game. Mental advantage. You gave a FG and the crowd started getting back into the game. Kick the FG, shut them up again.

MISTAKE 2: 27-24 49ers. Crowd really really pumped now. Lions on a massive slide with several mistakes. But are driving, 8 mins left, 4th and 3 at the 30. 47-48 yard FG attempt to tie the game. Campbell decides this is an easy call. Boneheaded call, boneheaded play. Take the FG and tie the game. Math is simple. It’s too deep into the game to be going for it. 

 

Must disagree overall with the first statement. Time and time again we see ( especially in the big games ) how being passive with the prevent D, conservative run plays when a team is up always comes back to bite the team in the arse. Remember falcons up on pats by 3 tds in the 4th ? Thanks to the prevent D. The eagles when they beat the pats in superbowl were extremely aggressive all game. They don’t beat the pats if they got cute and coward to the prevent D/ conservative O plays. Thats just 2 examples of many big games the team up by a lot, throws out what was working and gets too conservative. That’s how we beat the giants this yr, and how jets too have historically lost games from wussing out too. 48 yard FG is not a chip shot. Some may argue easier to convert a 4 and 3. Lot of options to get that small yardage. If it’s 4th and 8th they kick. If it’s a 30 yard fg they kick. Believe it was 4th and inches when dobal decided to kick fg from the 30 ? Jets had a 1% chance to win that game at end, pure cowardness by the giants is the ONLY reason we had a chance to win. 

   The FG scenario in hindsight . Say they did kick FG. All KC had to do was get in FG range to ice the game.. Then we all would be critical of Campbell for not going for the TD on 4 and 3. 

[NYJCAP2]

1 hour ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Except they didn't have to go for it every time.  Just like they didn't go for it before the half (when they elected to kick the FG), they could've also kicked a FG in the 3rd quarter to try to go back up 3 scores.   Plain and simply, Dan Campbell single-handedly screwed his team over.

Thread should end here IMO.

He wasn’t consistent, if you take the 3 before half, you HAVE TO take the 3 halfway through the 3rd quarter. 

The team unraveled after this decision.

[Jets0712]

Last night was a terrible example of how to be aggressive. Up 24-7, you don’t need to be aggressive. Not in a playoff. You just need to ensure you get home safely. 
MISTAKE 1: Up 24-10, he chooses to give up a 35 yard FG to make it a 3 possession game and instead goes for it in 4th and 2 from the 28. Take the 3, make it a 3 possession game. Mental advantage. You gave a FG and the crowd started getting back into the game. Kick the FG, shut them up again.
MISTAKE 2: 27-24 49ers. Crowd really really pumped now. Lions on a massive slide with several mistakes. But are driving, 8 mins left, 4th and 3 at the 30. 47-48 yard FG attempt to tie the game. Campbell decides this is an easy call. Boneheaded call, boneheaded play. Take the FG and tie the game. Math is simple. It’s too deep into the game to be going for it. 
MISTAKE 3: Keep your timeouts. 1 min left, 3rd and goal at the 1, calling a run play. Loses 2 yards. That forces you to call a timeout. 3rd down call was terrible. Even then, you should have had a play ready for 4th down and should’ve lined up right away within 15 seconds and throw it. If you get it, you still have 3 timeouts and maybe about 40 seconds. Gives you an outside shot of forcing 3 and out, and maybe 15-20 seconds left to go about 40 yards to kick a long FG (that you passed on twice already). If you fail on 4th, you lose. If you use a timeout instead and score a TD, you still lose cuz onside kicks are near impossible these days (3%). 

Spot on with everything you said. Couldn’t have said it better


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[Hex]

According to JN, Lamar Jackson is a JAG and Dan Campbell is stupid.

[Hex]

I think it was mentioned in the thread earlier, but Campbell doesn't make it this far kicking field goals. Yes, that 4th and 3 might have been a mistake but everybody and their dog knows he wouldn't have gone anywhere playing conservative. Lions are a young team and the Niners are really good. Excited to see how they play next season.

[TuscanyTile2]

1 hour ago, Jetsplayer21 said:

Must disagree overall with the first statement. Time and time again we see ( especially in the big games ) how being passive with the prevent D, conservative run plays when a team is up always comes back to bite the team in the arse. Remember falcons up on pats by 3 tds in the 4th ? Thanks to the prevent D. The eagles when they beat the pats in superbowl were extremely aggressive all game. They don’t beat the pats if they got cute and coward to the prevent D/ conservative O plays. Thats just 2 examples of many big games the team up by a lot, throws out what was working and gets too conservative. That’s how we beat the giants this yr, and how jets too have historically lost games from wussing out too. 48 yard FG is not a chip shot. Some may argue easier to convert a 4 and 3. Lot of options to get that small yardage. If it’s 4th and 8th they kick. If it’s a 30 yard fg they kick. Believe it was 4th and inches when dobal decided to kick fg from the 30 ? Jets had a 1% chance to win that game at end, pure cowardness by the giants is the ONLY reason we had a chance to win. 

   The FG scenario in hindsight . Say they did kick FG. All KC had to do was get in FG range to ice the game.. Then we all would be critical of Campbell for not going for the TD on 4 and 3. 

Reasonable point.  But that doesn't mean you make irrational decisions either.  They could still play aggressive but just elect to kick a FG when it makes sense (like putting your team up 3 scores a little past the midway point of the 3rd quarter).

How come you're not criticizing them for kicking a FG at the end of the 1st half?

[TuscanyTile2]

1 minute ago, Hex said:

I think it was mentioned in the thread earlier, but Campbell doesn't make it this far kicking field goals. Yes, that 4th and 3 might have been a mistake but everybody and their dog knows he wouldn't have gone anywhere playing conservative. Lions are a young team and the Niners are really good. Excited to see how they play next season.

Let's say they saved that last time out and were able to get the ball back and drive it down to the SF 30 yard line with 0:01 left in the 4th quarter.  If Dan Campbell elected to throw a Hail Mary there instead of attempting a game tying FG, what would you say?  Because the same arguments could be used there ("that's not how he played all season!",  "They didn't get this far kicking FGs", etc).

[#27TheDominator]

1 minute ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Let's say they saved that last time out and were able to get the ball back and drive it down to the SF 30 yard line with 0:01 left in the 4th quarter.  If Dan Campbell elected to throw a Hail Mary there instead of attempting a game tying FG, what would you say?  Because the same arguments could be used there ("that's not how he played all season!",  "They didn't get this far kicking FGs", etc).

What do the numbers say?  Cause I'm pretty sure the numbers said that his kicker sucks from that far out and they convert a great percentage of 4th and shorts.  I don't think you can say the same for 30 yard Hail Marys. 

[NYJCAP2]

29 minutes ago, Hex said:

I think it was mentioned in the thread earlier, but Campbell doesn't make it this far kicking field goals. Yes, that 4th and 3 might have been a mistake but everybody and their dog knows he wouldn't have gone anywhere playing conservative. Lions are a young team and the Niners are really good. Excited to see how they play next season.

He played it conservative in the 2nd quarter up 14 though?

[Jet2020]

3 hours ago, GreenFish said:

The entire team collapsed and that falls on him:

- poor decision on 4th down tries

- defense collapsed in the 2nd half

- offense stopped throwing those over middle slants that were working so well

- Josh Reynolds and Jahmyr Gibbs lost focus

We can point to the 4th down tries as the start of the collapse but all those were needed for them to actually lose. All mostly on coaching.

Execution vs calls in between the downs. Execution will not work every time. Offense or defense. But the calls have to be spotless else you’re relying solely on execution like Lions did in the second half. 

[Jet2020]

3 hours ago, Larz said:

Players ****ed it. Drops, face mask fail and the Gibbs fumble  

Also, I checked , the defense is allowed to stop the offense.  They got trucked. 
 

Purdy was clutch but nobody wants to give him credit. 
 

Blaming it all on the HC is lazy scapegoating 

Execution vs stupidity. Execution can be missed. Stupidity can’t. 

[Greg555]

Didn’t know his kicker’s #s weren’t good at all from distance..and of course he wasn't kicking in his climate-controlled Dome.

Can’t kill him then for his decision-making.  Kicker could very well have put 3 pts on the board..in a couple of the spots mentioned, but the odds weren’t great. Sucks for him, the team and fans.

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

The time to go for the jugular was on 4th and goal from the 1 before halftime.

A 21-pt lead at the break would have been completely demoralizing for SF.

Would have put tremendous pressure on Shanahan to be absolutely perfect and overly aggressive in the 2nd half.

This way, SF kicking the FG on opening possession of 2nd half would have still left it a 3-score game.

Going for it on 4th and 3 with 8 mins left from the plus-30 instead of kicking the FG down 27-24 — this was such a pivotal decision.

Even if you pickup the 1st down there, you don’t have enough runway to grind the clock all the way down to nothing (while hopefully scoring a TD).

Chances are you end up settling for a FG attempt anyway.  Preserve the full 8 mins, kick the FG to tie the game and see what happens.

Even if SF scores again, you will have all 3 timeouts and most likely have a chance to answer for a GW or game-tying drive.

[Joejet]

I’ve  read a couple of times here that the kicker sucked all year from distance. There are always kickers sitting out there waiting for a shot, why didn’t they bring someone else in during the season?

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

9 minutes ago, Joejet said:

I’ve  read a couple of times here that the kicker sucked all year from distance. There are always kickers sitting out there waiting for a shot, why didn’t they bring someone else in during the season?

Badgley isn’t Legatron.  This is true.

But anything under 50 for an NFL kicker has to be considered a confident play.

If not, it’s time to find another kicker.

[jamesr]

The life of an NFL coach ... damned if you do, damned if you don't.   

He'd equally be getting killed if he went for the FG and they missed it. The outcome is what gets you killed - or makes you the hero. Reminiscent of the "only call the good plays" mantra we see in a lot of other discussions.

And it's all magnified by the win-or-go-home nature of the playoffs. Same decisions in a regular season game don't get as much scrutiny because there's always next week.

This is why these guys get paid what they do.

[FidelioJet]

19 minutes ago, jamesr said:

The life of an NFL coach ... damned if you do, damned if you don't.   

He'd equally be getting killed if he went for the FG and they missed it. The outcome is what gets you killed - or makes you the hero. Reminiscent of the "only call the good plays" mantra we see in a lot of other discussions.

And it's all magnified by the win-or-go-home nature of the playoffs. Same decisions in a regular season game don't get as much scrutiny because there's always next week.

This is why these guys get paid what they do.

The kicker would be getting killed for missing it.  The right call was to kick it there.  There's just no way around that.  Not a single person would judge him if he kicked it either of those two times.

[Skeet Ulrich]

Campbell had an awful game, simply because he wasn't consistent with his logic.

He's played like this all year but why would you go conservative to kick a FG up 21-7 with the ball at 3 yard line? Clearly you value going up 3 scores. If you kick that ball at 21-7, you gotta kick a 43 yarder up 24-10 to go to 27-10.

 

The second kick down 27-24 I would've kicked but I have less an issue with. A 48 yarder outdoors, not an easy kick.

 

The most egregious gaffe was calling the TO down 10 driving to score with a minute left to play after calling a running play. That was one of the worst coaching decisions of the year and probably the past 20 years. You CANNOT call a timeout in that situation and rely on a 5% play(onside kick). Awful and immediately ended the game. Idiotic and indefensible.

 

 

[#27TheDominator]

Forums are the greatest.  Everybody is absolutely sure what Campbell should have done to win the game, but has very little idea of the kicking situation.  ANYBODY should have kicked the field goal there!  His kickers sucks from long range?  THEY SHOULD GET A NEW KICKER! 

They started the year with Riley Patterson who has a pretty big leg.  They dumped him in December after he missed 2 extra points in 3 games - in divisional losses to the Packers and Bears.  I am sure most of those saying how dumb he was Sunday would be in favor of getting a new kicker.  They did, Summit NJ's own Michael Badgley.  Now Badgley might have made that kick.  I think his career statistics are something like 77% on kicks between 40-50, but the kicks they passed on were from 46 and 48 and to give you an idea of his leg, he is like 35% on kicks over 50.  He did make a 50 yarder in the divisional round, but that was at home in a dome, not outside in whatever the **** took the place of Candlestick. 

The guy made a choice.  He will have to live with it.  Sounds like he is.  He didn't get there by doing what every sh*thead has done for the last 50 years.  

[nyjets1969]

Ben Johnson is big reason they were good this year. Once Johnson hits Washington the Lions will be a different team. Add in a rebuilt Greenbay team with Love getting a full year Lions won't see that opportunity again thats was their only chance to go to the SB. Think he will be fired in 3 years and the be another decade of misery. Really wanted them to win the Lions fans and Jets fans have alot in common as both teams are a laughing stock.

[LionelRichie]

16 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Reasonable point.  But that doesn't mean you make irrational decisions either.  They could still play aggressive but just elect to kick a FG when it makes sense (like putting your team up 3 scores a little past the midway point of the 3rd quarter).

How come you're not criticizing them for kicking a FG at the end of the 1st half?

Badgley is one of the worst kickers in NFL history kicking from 48+ and this was on grass.   Lions were 80% on 4th and 3 or less.    If Campbell calls for the FG and the kicker misses it, not only does he get destroyed in the media but he also goes against what got him there.    

[Skeet Ulrich]

8 minutes ago, LionelRichie said:

Badgley is one of the worst kickers in NFL history kicking from 48+ and this was on grass.   Lions were 80% on 4th and 3 or less.    If Campbell calls for the FG and the kicker misses it, not only does he get destroyed in the media but he also goes against what got him there.    

Why did he kick the FG from the 3 yard line at the end of the first half? That also went against what got him there.

[#27TheDominator]

2 minutes ago, Skeet Ulrich said:

Why did he kick the FG from the 3 yard line at the end of the first half? That also went against what got him there.

Because his kicker can make a 20 yard FG? 

[Vudu]

Should’ve taken the field goal. That last touchdown would’ve tied the game and gave them OT

[jamesr]

2 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

The kicker would be getting killed for missing it.  The right call was to kick it there.  There's just no way around that.  Not a single person would judge him if he kicked it either of those two times.

If there's one thing I've learned following football for all these decades, it's that there's never a shortage of blame to go around.   

[jamesr]

What I'd love to know is - how many of these decisions are made in the moment vs. how many are pre-planned?

Teams practice and prepare for so many scenarios. Do they look at a game and decide their strategy in advance? E.g. last two minutes of the first half, up two scores, do you kick the FG or risk the TD; analytics give you x% on the TD vs. y% on the FG. Or is it all on the coach on the heat of the moment to make that call? It just seems too important a decision to go with a "gut feel" decision. 

 

[Skeet Ulrich]

27 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Because his kicker can make a 20 yard FG? 

Strawman. Campbell's philosophy is that he wants to be aggressive and play for TDs not FGs, not that he has a bad kicker that he doesn't trust. 

'Race to 30', that's what Campbell said. Why are you kicking a FG at that spot? Either be conservative or aggressive. He got super conservative at the end of the first half, then very aggressive the rest of the game. If he went for it every time, you'll get no complaint from me(aside from using that TO, that was braindead).

 

[#27TheDominator]

18 minutes ago, Vudu said:

Should’ve taken the field goal. That last touchdown would’ve tied the game and gave them OT

What last touchdown?  The one the 49ers did not give a **** about because they were up 10?  Everything doesn't neatly happen the same had they made that kick.  Or missed it.

[#27TheDominator]

I am not repeating myself!  I am not!

[greenwichjetfan]

This is like that regular season game between the pats and colts over a decade ago where belichick went for it on 4th and 3 from around his own 35 yard line. Peyton had the team scoring at will in that game, and belichick new that giving him the ball back regardless of field position was going to be a disaster, so he made the calculated decision to go for it and trust his GOAT QB to get three yards. And if the RB (I believe it was kevin faulk) had caught it cleanly, it would have been the "right" call to the same people who promptly skewered him for going for it. 

Campbell had a front row seat to the absolute disaster that was their kicking game all year long. He also has one of the hottest OCs and best offenses in the league, and has routinely gone for and gotten first downs on 4th down. The players didn't make the plays that were there. I assure he didn't call for the Gibbs fumble or the Reynolds drop in the huddle.

[jamesr]

3 hours ago, Skeet Ulrich said:

Campbell had an awful game, simply because he wasn't consistent with his logic.

He's played like this all year but why would you go conservative to kick a FG up 21-7 with the ball at 3 yard line? Clearly you value going up 3 scores. If you kick that ball at 21-7, you gotta kick a 43 yarder up 24-10 to go to 27-10.

 

The second kick down 27-24 I would've kicked but I have less an issue with. A 48 yarder outdoors, not an easy kick.

 

The most egregious gaffe was calling the TO down 10 driving to score with a minute left to play after calling a running play. That was one of the worst coaching decisions of the year and probably the past 20 years. You CANNOT call a timeout in that situation and rely on a 5% play(onside kick). Awful and immediately ended the game. Idiotic and indefensible.

 

 

Someone at NFL.com agrees with you : https://www.nfl.com/news/dan-campbell-admits-error-on-lions-third-and-goal-run-burnt-timeout-in-final-possession-of-loss-to-49ers

 

Quote

Regardless of what you think of the fourth-down calls, the biggest coaching blunder on Sunday night occurred with the Lions trailing by 10 points on third-and-goal from the 1-yard line. Detroit called a David Montgomery run, which was stuffed for a 2-yard loss. Campbell then called the Lions' first timeout.

They also follow up to say that the Lions should have had two plays called in case the 3rd down didn't work, so they could have saved the timeout.

Just seems like they weren't prepared for the scenario and it cost them. This is what Scumbag BB excelled at - being prepared for all the situational calls like this one.

[neckdemon]

20 hours ago, dbatesman said:

 

 

this is nonsense statistics though.....

[Sperm Edwards]

It looks terrible when you take a chance and it doesn't work out, but when you do and it works out you get all the credit, too.

How many people today lament how, already down 4 points, it was a dumb thing to open the 2nd half with an onside kick in the super bowl and risk giving the Colts with their NFL MVP QB, who just smoked the NFL’s #1 D for 30 points in the AFCCG, a short field to maybe break it open quickly to an 11-point lead? It worked, and as a result Sean Payton got credit for having big balls not big stupidity. 

Even with those calls, if Detroit’s players didn't leave a bunch of yards & points on the field (never mind that preposterously lucky result on the deflected Aiyuk catch) they should have still won anyway.