Wild but Reasoned Draft Predictions

[Doggin94it]

Thread title should be self-explanatory. Give me the thing that you don't think will happen but could, makes some sense, and nobody is talking about as a possibility. And explain why you think it might happen. Don't play it safe.

For me? The Patriots take Joe Alt at 3. Right now, they have Connor McDermott as their starting left tackle. Putting a rookie QB in that position would be malpractice and they haven't shown any interest in any of the free agent offensive tackles except for resigning their own right tackle in Onwenu. They let Trent Brown walk in free agency. So what's their plan for the left tackle position? It could be drafting Alt third, rolling with Jacoby Brissett as the starting quarterback for a year, and then looking to draft a quarterback next off season.

I don't think it's likely but it would make some sense, and if it happened It would throw the entire draft into disarray. There would be a Feeding Frenzy for the Cardinals number four pick, the odds of JJ McCarthy making it to the Giants would go way up, and the Titans would likely take Fashanu as ot2 at 7, all of which would be wildly good for the Jets

[T0mShane]

I think we’re going to be surprised at the order the OTs come off the board. Alt is the consensus OT1, but the credible draft guys (Brugler, Tice, Zierlein, etc) are a little squishy on him. Obviously he killed it at the Combine, which might he the reason these guys coalesced around him, but even now Zierlein’s OT1 is JC Latham, whom Tice had as his #1 guy until recently, when he put Latham, Alt, and Fashanu into a tie. I’m still skeptical at the idea of Fashanu dropping because of the supposedly elite pass pro ability.

[T0mShane]

13 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I think we’re going to be surprised at the order the OTs come off the board. Alt is the consensus OT1, but the credible draft guys (Brugler, Tice, Zierlein, etc) are a little squishy on him. Obviously he killed it at the Combine, which might he the reason these guys coalesced around him, but even now Zierlein’s OT1 is JC Latham, whom Tice had as his #1 guy until recently, when he put Latham, Alt, and Fashanu into a tie. I’m still skeptical at the idea of Fashanu dropping because of the supposedly elite pass pro ability.

This is to say that I don’t think the Pats will feel pressured to jump on Alt in that spot because he might not be a generational/elite prospect even if he is OT1 this year. 

[bonkertons]

I think the Pats will be the ones to move down with Minny, especially if Maye goes 2.  If Minnesota was told "we're not moving down" by New England, I think they would have moved on to Arizona by now, and I think that deal would already be done.  My guess is New England waits to see who Washington goes with.  If they take Maye, New England decides to move down for a haul(11, 23, and a '25 1st).  Really all depends on who Washington takes at 2 though.

[Augustiniak]

53 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I think we’re going to be surprised at the order the OTs come off the board. Alt is the consensus OT1, but the credible draft guys (Brugler, Tice, Zierlein, etc) are a little squishy on him. Obviously he killed it at the Combine, which might he the reason these guys coalesced around him, but even now Zierlein’s OT1 is JC Latham, whom Tice had as his #1 guy until recently, when he put Latham, Alt, and Fashanu into a tie. I’m still skeptical at the idea of Fashanu dropping because of the supposedly elite pass pro ability.

Any team intent on going OL in the top 10 (like Tenn) would be wise to trade out with a team like minny or denver.  There’s no orlando pace here, there are a bunch of pretty good prospects.  I could see alt falling to the jets.  I could also see the jets try and trade back if they want an OL at 10.  

[doitny]

1 hour ago, Doggin94it said:

Thread title should be self-explanatory. Give me the thing that you don't think will happen but could, makes some sense, and nobody is talking about as a possibility. And explain why you think it might happen. Don't play it safe.

For me? The Patriots take Joe Alt at 3. Right now, they have Connor McDermott as their starting left tackle. Putting a rookie QB in that position would be malpractice and they haven't shown any interest in any of the free agent offensive tackles except for resigning their own right tackle in Onwenu. They let Trent Brown walk in free agency. So what's their plan for the left tackle position? It could be drafting Alt third, rolling with Jacoby Brissett as the starting quarterback for a year, and then looking to draft a quarterback next off season.

I don't think it's likely but it would make some sense, and if it happened It would throw the entire draft into disarray. There would be a Feeding Frenzy for the Cardinals number four pick, the odds of JJ McCarthy making it to the Giants would go way up, and the Titans would likely take Fashanu as ot2 at 7, all of which would be wildly good for the Jets

so they Pats just won 4 games and are picking 3rd and you think they will pass on a QB and hope to win 4 games again so they can pick high enough to get a good one? well that is a wild one for sure.

unless there is some cant miss generational QB that they think is around next year i think they take QB this year and sit him behind Brisset for most if not all of the year and go for Tackle next year. 

[derp]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

I think we’re going to be surprised at the order the OTs come off the board. Alt is the consensus OT1, but the credible draft guys (Brugler, Tice, Zierlein, etc) are a little squishy on him. Obviously he killed it at the Combine, which might he the reason these guys coalesced around him, but even now Zierlein’s OT1 is JC Latham, whom Tice had as his #1 guy until recently, when he put Latham, Alt, and Fashanu into a tie. I’m still skeptical at the idea of Fashanu dropping because of the supposedly elite pass pro ability.

Tackle is going to be so interesting. There are eight guys who could reasonably go in the first, nine if you count short arm Morgan, and four athletic guys who are going to go day two, five if you count short arm Puni.

Another thing is a question of what teams want. Run game is becoming more important, teams use the quick game throwing the ball to neutralize pass rush. Does Fashanu who’s a strong pass protector but unclear upside in the run game have as much value as someone like that used to? I’m not saying no but I’m curious.

Then obviously the LT/RT thing with some teams who specifically have a need at RT.

I wonder if Alt is sitting there at ten. If Tennessee trades down or goes in any other direction he likely will be - unless the Giants pop him and kick Neal inside or something. Are we convinced Tennessee with Bill Callahan specifically wants Alt at 7? I don’t know.

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

 

NE will trade down with the Giants if their QB isn't there. 

Cardinals will go defense when they do trade down. 

Fautanu will be the first OL to go.

[T0mShane]

38 minutes ago, derp said:

Tackle is going to be so interesting. There are eight guys who could reasonably go in the first, nine if you count short arm Morgan, and four athletic guys who are going to go day two, five if you count short arm Puni.

Another thing is a question of what teams want. Run game is becoming more important, teams use the quick game throwing the ball to neutralize pass rush. Does Fashanu who’s a strong pass protector but unclear upside in the run game have as much value as someone like that used to? I’m not saying no but I’m curious.

Then obviously the LT/RT thing with some teams who specifically have a need at RT.

I wonder if Alt is sitting there at ten. If Tennessee trades down or goes in any other direction he likely will be - unless the Giants pop him and kick Neal inside or something. Are we convinced Tennessee with Bill Callahan specifically wants Alt at 7? I don’t know.

Listened to a pretty interesting discussion recently about how the new hotness is to build up the interior OL because there are so many high-end DTs there are now, and if you have a weak fish at guard, Chris Jones can just kill him in a big spot and lose the game for you. Dovetails with an idea emanating from the analytics community that plus run blocking creates value because it counters two-high and you can scheme up pass pro if needed.  With the quick game and zone runs so prevalent, you maybe don’t need the elite tackles anymore. But because I am old(er) and still have visions of Lawrence Taylor and Bruce Smith murdering QBs, I can’t fathom the idea of putting a C- player at tackle, ever. Gonna be very interesting to see where these guys end up. 

[Greenseed4]

I predict a team will trade two future 1sts, to move up to the #1 pick... and then take a non-QB. 

Rumors will start to circulate that something is wrong with Caleb Williams, and he'll start to drop like a rock. 

That same team will then trade three 2nd-round picks to move back into the first round, and then with some fanciful maneuvering get their future firsts (and a punt returner) back, so that the Bears can draft Caleb Williams at a lower draft spot.    

 

[mrcoops]

19 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

I predict a team will trade two future 1sts, to move up to the #1 pick... and then take a non-QB. 

Rumors will start to circulate that something is wrong with Caleb Williams, and he'll start to drop like a rock. 

That same team will then trade three 2nd-round picks to move back into the first round, and then with some fanciful maneuvering get their future firsts (and a punt returner) back, so that the Bears can draft Caleb Williams at a lower draft spot.    

 

Anything can happen when it's Draft Day.

[Doggin94it]

4 hours ago, doitny said:

so they Pats just won 4 games and are picking 3rd and you think they will pass on a QB and hope to win 4 games again so they can pick high enough to get a good one? well that is a wild one for sure.

unless there is some cant miss generational QB that they think is around next year i think they take QB this year and sit him behind Brisset for most if not all of the year and go for Tackle next year. 

Do I think they will? No (see my "top 10 shaping up" thread). Do I think they should? No. Do I think it's a legit possibility? Yes.

[32EBoozer]

The best value is of this draft is 2nd & 3rd round for our areas of need… WR & OL even LB & S

Sherwood, Converse need to show they’re ready to step up

[derp]

8 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Listened to a pretty interesting discussion recently about how the new hotness is to build up the interior OL because there are so many high-end DTs there are now, and if you have a weak fish at guard, Chris Jones can just kill him in a big spot and lose the game for you. Dovetails with an idea emanating from the analytics community that plus run blocking creates value because it counters two-high and you can scheme up pass pro if needed.  With the quick game and zone runs so prevalent, you maybe don’t need the elite tackles anymore. But because I am old(er) and still have visions of Lawrence Taylor and Bruce Smith murdering QBs, I can’t fathom the idea of putting a C- player at tackle, ever. Gonna be very interesting to see where these guys end up. 

I think I maybe listened to the same. Another big piece of it is that defenses will just attack the worst OL with their best rusher so if your right guard sucks the left tackle isn’t going to help you against Lawrence Taylor or Bruce Smith because they’ll line them up elsewhere.

I tend to think pass pro first still as well but I wonder if a guy like D’Brickashaw Ferguson who’s a wall in pass protection but doesn’t bring a whole lot against the run has the same value as a steady pass protection presence in todays game that he did almost 20 years ago. 

I still think on the OL in general you’re as strong as your weakest link and it’s prudent to draft and develop guys.

[C Mart]

21 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

The best value is of this draft is 2nd & 3rd round for our areas of need… WR & OL even LB & S

Sherwood, Converse need to show they’re ready to step up

Doubt LB. Surratt & Barnes. Plus in nickel so much. 

[32EBoozer]

35 minutes ago, C Mart said:

Doubt LB. Surratt & Barnes. Plus in nickel so much. 

Forgot about Surratt. Nasilradeen as well. We have guys 2-3 years in the system. Need to start re-supplying the pipeline 

[RedBeardedSavage]

Kiran Amegadjie will go a lot higher than expected.

I know, admittedly, almost nothing about this player other than that he's a 6'5 323 lbs Yale OT and has 36 1/8 arms. 

Tyron Smith is 6'5 with 36 3/8" arms.

Ipso facto, by the transitive property of arm length, Kiran Amegadjie will be a goddam superstar in the pros. 

Trade down, draft this beast, short money. 

[C Mart]

10 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

Forgot about Surratt. Nasilradeen as well. We have guys 2-3 years in the system. Need to start re-supplying the pipeline 

Nasilradeen is gone. They play so much 4-2-5. Surratt, Sherwood & Barnes are enough..No need to spend day 2 draft capital on LB

[32EBoozer]

48 minutes ago, C Mart said:

Nasilradeen is gone.

Forgot about that as well. Last season. The memory isn’t what it used to be. Happy I still remember SB III

[jetstream23]

JD will trade back from #10 not once, but twice.

I think if it was possible he'd gladly give up his #10 pick for three picks in Round 2.  This seems like that kind of Draft where the value is mostly on Day 2.

[SickJetFan]

What I want to happen is for the Jets to trade up to 4 or 5 for MHJ or Nabers

What I think will happen is Jets pick an OT at 10

The Jets will be dramatic about it using up all the time while JD proposes to trade out with other teams but asks for far more than worth.

 

The new Jets T rides bench but everyone does high 5s for the insurance play

 

[PepPep]

I honestly don't think anything 'wild' will happen in the top 10, certainly nothing people haven't talked about already, so I'm not going to just make stuff up. 

The craziest thing I think will happen is 1. NO TRADES until pick 9. 2. Bowers falls out of the top 10. 3. 7 straight offensive players. 4. Jets pass on a playmaker. 5. x4 QBs in the top 10.  

Is any of that crazy? I dunno. 

So many people have projected teams moving up into the top 10, specifically for QBs. I just don't see it. I think there's a very good chance there are no trades in the top 10 and we still have 4 QBs go. But in my mock, I do have a trade at pick 9 for a QB. Similarly, the Bowers hysteria (and listen, rightfully so) has projected him to go in the top 10. But I don't think so. I think teams will look to address QB, WR and O-line before rolling the dice on a TE weapon like Bowers. I also think this draft will have 9 out of the top 10 players on the offensive side of the ball. To me, the only team going defense is the Falcons. 

 

1. CHI - C.Williams: This is the biggest wildcard. This could change the whole draft (at least the top 10). C.Williams is still projected by many as the top QB and many have him going to CHI. But he is also a polarizing figure and it would not surprise me one bit if the Bears simply decided to pass on him and address QB at 9 (lets say take MHJ instead) or take another QB like J.Daniels. I'm one of those people who believe Williams could drop like a rock on draft day. 

2. WASH- J.Daniels: Don't know why WAS is 'shopping around' the #2 overall pick. Maybe due diligence. Or maybe its just smoke. To me, J.Daniels or Maye are no-brainer selections. Take whichever guy you prefer and move on with your QB of the future. 

3. NE- Maye: New regime, new QB. Another no brainer pick for me. NE needs a QB, and this is the perfect time to get one. I hate how things tend to just 'work out' for them. Not sure why some are suggesting the Pats will move down or take a WR or OT here. Belli is gone, they won't overthink this. Maye is one of the 'big 3' QBs in this draft. NE takes him and has their QB of the future. 

4. ARI: MHJ: Not really a no-brainer. We could see ARI move down or go in a different direction. But this is easily the best player on the board (IMO) and addresses a need for them. I think they would regret passing on a prospect like MHJ.

5. LAC: Nabers: Huge hole at WR. MHJ off the board. Win now team with a quality QB. This is a no-brainer to me. Nabers is well worth a top 5 pick. He's neck and neck with MHJ as the top WR in a loaded WR class. I don't think the Chargers go in another direction. Nabers is the pick at 5. 

6. NYG: Odunze: The WR run continues here. I know there is a lot of JJ McCarthy smoke here, and where there's smoke there's usually fire. But I think the Giants see Odunze and pounce, adding a weapon for Danny Dimes (who is still under a massive contract) and hoping he can turn it around with a revamped squad around him. It would also serve as a BPA type of selection, which is how teams tend to lean this early in the draft. Odunze is too good to pass up when the Giants have a need at the position. 

7. Tenn: Alt: Not much to say here. I feel like this selection just makes too much sense not to be made if Alt is still on the board. 

8. ATL: D.Turner: I have racked my brain to think of what direction ATL should go after the additions they have made in FA and this makes the absolute most sense. Its the one team that desperately needs a boost on the defensive side of the ball. Lo and behold the top defensive player is available to them. 

9. TRADE: MINN: JJ McCarthy: Ok. So here is my first and only trade of the top 10. CHI loses out on Odunze. They could probably go B.Thomas Jr., but I think with JJ McCarthy still on the board MINN moves up a few stops and secures a QB, making sure another QB needy team like DEN or NO doesn't do the same. 

10. NYJ: Fashanu: To me, this is a no brainer. If you told me a month or two ago that Fashanu would be there at 10 I would say run to the podium and announce the pick, especially with the top 3 WRs off the board. But I think JD is in a tough spot here. He can go Bowers to give ARod a unique weapon to work with. He can go with the best remaining receiver in Thomas Jr. He can try to trade down and net the 2nd rounder he lost in the Rodgers deal. He can go with another OT he has been linked to like Fuaga or Fautanu. I think if the draft falls this way, its Fashanu or trade down. I'm going with Fashanu here. 

11. I'm just going to go ahead and add pick 11 here to show who the Bears would have taken after the Minn. trade and its WR- Brian Thomas Jr. This trade works out perfectly for them after they miss out on their top WR target in Odunze.  

[David Harris]

How about Dallas Turner going higher than expected.  A freak athlete (4.46 forty) from a big time program. 
 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/dallas-turner/32005455-5224-6013-e478-961d1c8f7101

 

It’d be fun to see Nabers go ahead of MHJ.

[hawk]

On 3/22/2024 at 10:50 AM, SomebodytoAnybody47 said:

 

NE will trade down with the Giants if their QB isn't there. 

Cardinals will go defense when they do trade down. 

Fautanu will be the first OL to go.

I just came in here to pose this question.  Would NEP trade back to Giants for a pick swap and Daniel Jones?  Giants may need to pay them to take the Salary with additional compensation.

I would think Washington might even do it if they weren't in the same division.

[Adoni Beast]

On 3/22/2024 at 9:18 AM, T0mShane said:

This is to say that I don’t think the Pats will feel pressured to jump on Alt in that spot because he might not be a generational/elite prospect even if he is OT1 this year. 

I think the Pats go QB with an alternative option to MHJ.

I think Fashanu is getting forgotten by the media but I doubt the scouts/teams are forgetting how good he is. I can't imagine guys like Fuaga getting picked over him but again it will be team's personal preference.

Alt will most likely be the 1st OT taken. Latham is getting so much hate based off of one bad play and he is a RT that I think can make the move to LT. That might get Latham picked ahead of Fuaga and possibly even Fautanu.

[Adoni Beast]

22 hours ago, PepPep said:

10. NYJ: Fashanu: To me, this is a no brainer. If you told me a month or two ago that Fashanu would be there at 10 I would say run to the podium and announce the pick, especially with the top 3 WRs off the board. But I think JD is in a tough spot here. He can go Bowers to give ARod a unique weapon to work with. He can go with the best remaining receiver in Thomas Jr. He can try to trade down and net the 2nd rounder he lost in the Rodgers deal. He can go with another OT he has been linked to like Fuaga or Fautanu. I think if the draft falls this way, its Fashanu or trade down. I'm going with Fashanu here.  

I think that Fashanu is going to be really good and we'd be damn lucky if he's there at 10 and worth not trading out of the pick or not taking Odunze or Bowers.

We have can go WR for depth in the 3rd round

[32EBoozer]

6 hours ago, Adoni Beast said:

I think that Fashanu is going to be really good and we'd be damn lucky if he's there at 10 and worth not trading out of the pick or not taking Odunze or Bowers.

We have can go WR for depth in the 3rd round

At pick 72, I think there will be a few WR3 available who might be able to contribute year 1 mostly from the slot. I doubt the same could be said for OL…. they will be gobbled up by the end of round two leaving some project OT & OG.

Unless JJ is there at 10 I can’t see anyone trading up with us. Solid draft for OT, WR & DT

 

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

Now talk of Commanders taking McCarthy. 
 

wash - mcarthy

ne - maye

Cards - trade to giants for Daniels

chargers - fuaga

Cards - mhj

Tenn - alt

atl -  edge

bears - nabers

jets - 
 

This is easy.