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Odds of Jets Getting First Overall Pick


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What are the Jets' chances of getting the No. 1 pick in 2015 NFL Draft? Here's your answer

on December 02, 2014 at 4:59 PM, updated December 02, 2014 at 6:03 PM

The Jets are having a horrible season, with a 2-10 record. But is it horrible enough for them to get the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft?

The odds aren't looking good for the Jets. At this point, there is a 4.74 percent chance they will draft first overall, according to NumberFire.com, a sports analytics website.

This percentage does not include the possibility of the Jets trading up. We're just talking about where teams are going to be initially slotted.

Here's a look at what the folks over at NumberFire.com came up with, in their projections for percentage chances of getting the No. 1 pick:

Raiders: 59.62 percent

Jaguars: 16.98 percent

Buccaneers: 10.16 percent

Titans: 7.92 percent

Jets: 4.74 percent

Redskins: 0.30 percent

Giants: 0.28 percent

All of this begs a couple obvious questions. First, what is NumberFire.com? And how were these projection percentages calculated?

NumberFire.com describes itself like this: "We use mathematical modeling to predict and analyze sports in groundbreaking new ways."

As for the methodology for reaching these percentages, here is how NumberFire.com's communications director, Zach Kempner, explained it: "Using our internal efficiency metrics, we calculate each team's chances of winning every remaining game on its schedule. Then we simulate the NFL season thousands of times to determine the probability that each team will have the worst record in the NFL."

Whoa. Can they do your taxes, too?

The website's projections actually differ a bit from the current NFL Draft order: Raiders (1-11), Buccaneers (2-10), Titans (2-10), Jaguars (2-10), Jets (2-10), Redskins (3-9) and Giants (3-9).

But as you can see, the Jets are fifth in both the current draft order (which almost certainly will change) and the NumberFire.com percentage projections for the No. 1 pick.

Meanwhile, FootballOutsiders.com gives the Jets much better odds of getting the No. 1 pick -- 11.7 percent, behind only Oakland's 65.2 percent. Tampa Bay is third on the Football Outsiders list, at 11.3 percent.

If nothing else, this is some interesting bar-stool fodder for the coming weeks, as every NFL team has four games remaining.

Regardless of where they pick -- and it likely will be high -- the Jets could be in the market for a quarterback in this draft. Florida State's Jameis Winston is an intriguing, albeit flawed option.

The Jets have drafted first overall just once before, in 1996, when they picked wide receiver Keyshawn Johnson after going 3-13 in 1995.

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If they wind up with #5 you trade it and the following years #1 for this years #1 and you choose Mariota.

If it means Mariota I just might be okay with it. I hate trading future number 1s but still if it means getting a franchise guy, just might have to pull the trigger.

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BoTh WiNsToN and MaRioTTa will stink...

 

 

 

If the Jets pick them.

 

 

(my honest thought)

 

I like them both, so i hope we don't pick either. I cant stand another season of the Jets ruining young players. I want these guys to have successful careers. Not come to the Jets and never be given a legit shot at developing into anything other than a has-been...

 

Sign a mid level vet.     :head:    Stop Killing young QBs.

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BoTh WiNsToN and MaRioTTa will stink...

 

 

 

If the Jets pick them.

 

 

(my honest thought)

 

I like them both, so i hope we don't pick either. I cant stand another season of the Jets ruining young players. I want these guys to have successful careers. Not come to the Jets and never be given a legit shot at developing into anything other than a has-been...

 

Sign a mid level vet.     :head:    Stop Killing young QBs.

roperclrty.gif

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Im surprised they have the Jaguars over the Titans since they host the Titans in  few weeks.  As for the Jets I cant imagine them getting the number 1 pick.  It would require us losing to the Titans,the Jags winning (Titans easiest), the Bucs beating someone (Panthers are the easiest), and the Raiders beating someone (49ers easiest). That seems like an impossible task to even get to 2, let alone 1. 

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BoTh WiNsToN and MaRioTTa will stink...

 

 

 

If the Jets pick them.

 

 

(my honest thought)

 

I like them both, so i hope we don't pick either. I cant stand another season of the Jets ruining young players. I want these guys to have successful careers. Not come to the Jets and never be given a legit shot at developing into anything other than a has-been...

 

Sign a mid level vet.     :head:    Stop Killing young QBs.

 

If I was either of their parents I would 100% agree with you.  Since Im not I will hope the new regime can do a better job and we get one of them.  

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Raiders aren't winning another game this season and they are drafting Mariota #1.

They very might just do that. Than you see just how bad a team wants Mariotta.( trying to create a bidding war). Raiders aren't drafting a Wr at one.( none of them are worth the first pick) . So if a team doesn't want to pay Raiders price( than you just pick the Qb yourself , and sit back and wait for the offers to come in.( a lot of QB hungry teams out there).

A team can always draft Winston- good luck there as a leopard doesn't change his spots.

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If the Jaguars beat the Titans...possible

And we lose to the Titans..guaranteed if GeNO runs out there behind center.

And we lose to Minny..same guarantee

Lose to Miami..guaranteed

And hopefully NE still needs to play for HFA the last week...Beli runs up the score to stick it to Bigmouth

2-14 puts us probably second and in a position to offer Oakland more than the 400 value points needed to move down one position. Tampa is the only other one of the bottom dwellers that needs a QB but it is too expensive to move up from 4 to 1 and they can grab local star Famous Jamius if he isn't incarcerated by April

Suck for the Duck might just work

Thanks WRECKS and Idzik for sticking with GeNO as your farewell present to Jet fans

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If the Jaguars beat the Titans...possible

And we lose to the Titans..guaranteed if GeNO runs out there behind center.

And we lose to Minny..same guarantee

Lose to Miami..guaranteed

And hopefully NE still needs to play for HFA the last week...Beli runs up the score to stick it to Bigmouth

2-14 puts us probably second and in a position to offer Oakland more than the 400 value points needed to move down one position. Tampa is the only other one of the bottom dwellers that needs a QB but it is too expensive to move up from 4 to 1 and they can grab local star Famous Jamius if he isn't incarcerated by April

Suck for the Duck might just work

Thanks WRECKS and Idzik for sticking with GeNO as your farewell present to Jet fans

You can throw the trade chart out the window when it involves a franchise Qb. The Jets or any other team wants that pick they better be prepared to squeal like a pig. ( think deliverance) If no team is willing to pay their price- the Raiders should just be prepared to take Mariotta themselves. Let Carr and Mariotta battle it out, and can always trade one down the road.( going to get the most value back in that scenario)

Also under your scenario. Some team takes Famous Jamius at 2 . Now the top two Qb's are off the board - do you think Tampa won't be on the phone with the Raiders asking what it's going to take to pry Mariotta from them.

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You can throw the trade chart out the window when it involves a franchise Qb. The Jets or any other team wants that pick they better be prepared to squeal like a pig. ( think deliverance) If no team is willing to pay their price- the Raiders should just be prepared to take Mariotta themselves. Let Carr and Mariotta battle it out, and can always trade one down the road.( going to get the most value back in that scenario)

Also under your scenario. Some team takes Famous Jamius at 2 . Now the top two Qb's are off the board - do you think Tampa won't be on the phone with the Raiders asking what it's going to take to pry Mariotta from them.

Did you pay off all those wagers you lost on that guaranteed,lock,sure thing stomping of the Jets you put in the books before week one?

I was actually worried about you when you disappeared and went into hiding after the Raiders became the only team in all of 2014-15 that could make GeNO look decent.

And you are quite wrong, nobody except possibly the two dumbass owners, Snyder and Davis gives more than trade chart value. And Al's retarded son already has the first pick despite all those sensational FA additions and super duper draft steals you were bragging about before your annual disappearance

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Did you pay off all those wagers you lost on that guaranteed,lock,sure thing stomping of the Jets you put in the books before week one?

I was actually worried about you when you disappeared and went into hiding after the Raiders became the only team in all of 2014-15 that could make GeNO look decent.

And you are quite wrong, nobody except possibly the two dumbass owners, Snyder and Davis gives more than trade chart value. And Al's retarded son already has the first pick despite all those sensational FA additions and super duper draft steals you were bragging about before your annual disappearance

Looking back that Jet win against the Raiders might be the best thing that happened to the Raiders organization in sometime.( jets might be in position to control the draft).

With that said you want a chance to draft Mariotta this year, you better back up the brinks truck to Mr Davis , because it's not going to be cheap to get up to number 1.( Raiders can pick Mariotta at one and get maximum value). Unfortunately even if you had the second pick, the second pick doesn't control the draft.( that goes to the team with the top pick- so dream away to get Mariotta going to be very cheap)

Hey if you can live with Famous Jamison as your Qb, Geno Smith and M Vick going into next season .

Good Luck with that, and let's see how that turns out. Tampa bay, The Titans, and the Rams , are some of the teams who would love to get a Qb. Let the bidding war begin. ( Jerry Jones will even let you get involved)

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Looking back that Jet win against the Raiders might be the best thing that happened to the Raiders organization in sometime.( jets might be in position to control the draft).

With that said you want a chance to draft Mariotta this year, you better back up the brinks truck to Mr Davis , because it's not going to be cheap to get up to number 1.( Raiders can pick Mariotta at one and get maximum value). Unfortunately even if you had the second pick, the second pick doesn't control the draft.( that goes to the team with the top pick- so dream away to get Mariotta going to be very cheap)

Hey if you can live with Famous Jamison as your Qb, Geno Smith and M Vick going into next season .

Good Luck with that, and let's see how that turns out. Tampa bay, The Titans, and the Rams , are some of the teams who would love to get a Qb. Let the bidding war begin. ( Jerry Jones will even let you get involved)

Keep living in your fantasy world.

400 points, maybe a bonus of 200 more since it's a QB from 2 up to 1. And of the others you mentioned, only the Bucs are all in for a QB

Rams have Bradford, Titans Mecklenberger, Jones..Homo, Jaguars. Bortles...

All four are better than Derek Carr, so maybe the Raiders will take Mariota...

But knowing the Raider ownership and GM...you know in your heart they will take another Wide Receiver...probably not even Cooper...probably some bust everybody else has ranked in the fifth round that impressed Al's retarded son with a 4.3 combine time

Admit it, you know that is your future

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Keep living in your fantasy world.

400 points, maybe a bonus of 200 more since it's a QB from 2 up to 1. And of the others you mentioned, only the Bucs are all in for a QB

Rams have Bradford, Titans Mecklenberger, Jones..Homo, Jaguars. Bortles...

All four are better than Derek Carr, so maybe the Raiders will take Mariota...

But knowing the Raider ownership and GM...you know in your heart they will take another Wide Receiver...probably not even Cooper...probably some bust everybody else has ranked in the fifth round that impressed Al's retarded son with a 4.3 combine time

Admit it, you know that is your future

We will see in a couple months whose living in fantasy world. The truth will come out. The Rams will DEFINTELY be looking at the Qb position( that was Bradford last chance in St Louis- time to turn the page).

When Geno Smith and M Vick are your starting Qb going forward I wouldn't comment about anyone else Qb position.

I believe Raiders have their Qb( Carr) , and couldn't be more happy with him at Qb.( still to get maximum value they might have to take Mariotta at number 1.( Qb most important position, and that pick will pay ten fold if Raiders want to trade one of them away in the future.

Who knows Winston might get his act together, and Jets might get a franchise Qb that way. Or they can draft him , and regret that decision for sometime. Good Luck

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We will see in a couple months whose living in fantasy world. The truth will come out. The Rams will DEFINTELY be looking at the Qb position( that was Bradford last chance in St Louis- time to turn the page).

When Geno Smith and M Vick are your starting Qb going forward I wouldn't comment about anyone else Qb position.

I believe Raiders have their Qb , and couldn't be more happy with him at Qb.( still to get maximum value they might have to take Mariotta at number 1.( Qb most important position, and that pick will pay ten fold if Raiders want to trade one of them away in the future.

Who knows Winston might get his act together, and Jets might get a franchise Qb that way. Or they can draft him , and regret that decision for sometime. good luck

You're right. We'll see.

Who are Dumb asses Davis and McKenzie looking at for the first overall pick in the 2016, 2017 and 2018 drafts?

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