flgreen Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 What are the Jets' chances of getting the No. 1 pick in 2015 NFL Draft? Here's your answer on December 02, 2014 at 4:59 PM, updated December 02, 2014 at 6:03 PM The Jets are having a horrible season, with a 2-10 record. But is it horrible enough for them to get the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft? The odds aren't looking good for the Jets. At this point, there is a 4.74 percent chance they will draft first overall, according to NumberFire.com, a sports analytics website. This percentage does not include the possibility of the Jets trading up. We're just talking about where teams are going to be initially slotted. Here's a look at what the folks over at NumberFire.com came up with, in their projections for percentage chances of getting the No. 1 pick: Raiders: 59.62 percent Jaguars: 16.98 percent Buccaneers: 10.16 percent Titans: 7.92 percent Jets: 4.74 percent Redskins: 0.30 percent Giants: 0.28 percent All of this begs a couple obvious questions. First, what is NumberFire.com? And how were these projection percentages calculated? NumberFire.com describes itself like this: "We use mathematical modeling to predict and analyze sports in groundbreaking new ways." As for the methodology for reaching these percentages, here is how NumberFire.com's communications director, Zach Kempner, explained it: "Using our internal efficiency metrics, we calculate each team's chances of winning every remaining game on its schedule. Then we simulate the NFL season thousands of times to determine the probability that each team will have the worst record in the NFL." Whoa. Can they do your taxes, too? The website's projections actually differ a bit from the current NFL Draft order: Raiders (1-11), Buccaneers (2-10), Titans (2-10), Jaguars (2-10), Jets (2-10), Redskins (3-9) and Giants (3-9). But as you can see, the Jets are fifth in both the current draft order (which almost certainly will change) and the NumberFire.com percentage projections for the No. 1 pick. Meanwhile, FootballOutsiders.com gives the Jets much better odds of getting the No. 1 pick -- 11.7 percent, behind only Oakland's 65.2 percent. Tampa Bay is third on the Football Outsiders list, at 11.3 percent. If nothing else, this is some interesting bar-stool fodder for the coming weeks, as every NFL team has four games remaining. Regardless of where they pick -- and it likely will be high -- the Jets could be in the market for a quarterback in this draft. Florida State's Jameis Winston is an intriguing, albeit flawed option. The Jets have drafted first overall just once before, in 1996, when they picked wide receiver Keyshawn Johnson after going 3-13 in 1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joewilly12 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 If they wind up with #5 you trade it and the following years #1 for this years #1 and you choose Mariota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Obsession with top pick...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlife33 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 If they wind up with #5 you trade it and the following years #1 for this years #1 and you choose Mariota. If it means Mariota I just might be okay with it. I hate trading future number 1s but still if it means getting a franchise guy, just might have to pull the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlife33 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I think the Jets get a top 4 pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ylekram Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 If they wind up with #5 you trade it and the following years #1 for this years #1 and you choose Mariota. it looks like mariota is the best qb in this years draft. the question is is he worthy of a top 5 pick? just a question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt39 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 We have two winnable games in a row and I don't like it one bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ylekram Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 We have two winnable games in a row and I don't like it one bit. on the bright side, we have geno at the helm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlife33 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 We have two winnable games in a row and I don't like it one bit. They're both road games, which is nice. The Titans seem to always beat us in Nashville too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlife33 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 on the bright side, we have geno at the helm That's always good, indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jolot Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 re-run the numbers with us going 2-14, we are getting a top 2 pick, everyone except us and the raiders has a good chance to win another game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vincenzo69 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 re-run the numbers with us going 2-14, we are getting a top 2 pick, everyone except us and the raiders has a good chance to win another game. Raiders aren't winning another game this season and they are drafting Mariota #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jolot Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Raiders aren't winning another game this season and they are drafting Mariota #1.agreed, that's why I said we are getting a top 2 pick , we aren't winning again either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flgreen Posted December 3, 2014 Author Share Posted December 3, 2014 Raiders aren't winning another game this season and they are drafting Mariota #1. IDK. They seem pretty happy with Carr. Mariota seems like a good player, but he's not a lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HessStation Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 YOU EFFING LOSERS... The voices. They told me. It's written in the stars. He's coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zoom28 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 BoTh WiNsToN and MaRioTTa will stink... If the Jets pick them. (my honest thought) I like them both, so i hope we don't pick either. I cant stand another season of the Jets ruining young players. I want these guys to have successful careers. Not come to the Jets and never be given a legit shot at developing into anything other than a has-been... Sign a mid level vet. Stop Killing young QBs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arsis Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Raiders aren't winning another game this season and they are drafting Mariota #1. Didn't they just draft a qb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HessStation Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 BoTh WiNsToN and MaRioTTa will stink... If the Jets pick them. (my honest thought) I like them both, so i hope we don't pick either. I cant stand another season of the Jets ruining young players. I want these guys to have successful careers. Not come to the Jets and never be given a legit shot at developing into anything other than a has-been... Sign a mid level vet. Stop Killing young QBs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Embrace the Suck Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 We have two winnable games in a row and I don't like it one bit. I agree, but I wouldn't worry about it. Rex is busy burning bridges before he is sent packing hence last night's "game plan". Plus as another poster mentioned those games are on the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken Schroy Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I heard Chris Russo on the radio today and he said the Jets should go all in for Mariota. Works 4 me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jason423 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Im surprised they have the Jaguars over the Titans since they host the Titans in few weeks. As for the Jets I cant imagine them getting the number 1 pick. It would require us losing to the Titans,the Jags winning (Titans easiest), the Bucs beating someone (Panthers are the easiest), and the Raiders beating someone (49ers easiest). That seems like an impossible task to even get to 2, let alone 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patriot Killa Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I'm all in for Mariota... he can throw a laser and run a 4.3 we can't pass! We need to trade with the raiders Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
artemusclyde Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I'm all in for Mariota... he can throw a laser and run a 4.3 we can't pass! We need to trade with the raiders Hope so to, Bucs will be gunning hard for him to though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick Blitz Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Do what it takes to get Mariotta, only teams I can see picking a QB ahead of us are the Titans and Bucs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patriot Killa Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Hope so to, Bucs will be gunning hard for him to though. Yeah something tells me the Buck want Mariota really bad.. really hope we lose out and they get at least one more win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Crusher Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 BoTh WiNsToN and MaRioTTa will stink... If the Jets pick them. (my honest thought) I like them both, so i hope we don't pick either. I cant stand another season of the Jets ruining young players. I want these guys to have successful careers. Not come to the Jets and never be given a legit shot at developing into anything other than a has-been... Sign a mid level vet. Stop Killing young QBs. If I was either of their parents I would 100% agree with you. Since Im not I will hope the new regime can do a better job and we get one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raideraholic Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Raiders aren't winning another game this season and they are drafting Mariota #1. They very might just do that. Than you see just how bad a team wants Mariotta.( trying to create a bidding war). Raiders aren't drafting a Wr at one.( none of them are worth the first pick) . So if a team doesn't want to pay Raiders price( than you just pick the Qb yourself , and sit back and wait for the offers to come in.( a lot of QB hungry teams out there). A team can always draft Winston- good luck there as a leopard doesn't change his spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sg3 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 If the Jaguars beat the Titans...possible And we lose to the Titans..guaranteed if GeNO runs out there behind center. And we lose to Minny..same guarantee Lose to Miami..guaranteed And hopefully NE still needs to play for HFA the last week...Beli runs up the score to stick it to Bigmouth 2-14 puts us probably second and in a position to offer Oakland more than the 400 value points needed to move down one position. Tampa is the only other one of the bottom dwellers that needs a QB but it is too expensive to move up from 4 to 1 and they can grab local star Famous Jamius if he isn't incarcerated by April Suck for the Duck might just work Thanks WRECKS and Idzik for sticking with GeNO as your farewell present to Jet fans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raideraholic Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 If the Jaguars beat the Titans...possible And we lose to the Titans..guaranteed if GeNO runs out there behind center. And we lose to Minny..same guarantee Lose to Miami..guaranteed And hopefully NE still needs to play for HFA the last week...Beli runs up the score to stick it to Bigmouth 2-14 puts us probably second and in a position to offer Oakland more than the 400 value points needed to move down one position. Tampa is the only other one of the bottom dwellers that needs a QB but it is too expensive to move up from 4 to 1 and they can grab local star Famous Jamius if he isn't incarcerated by April Suck for the Duck might just work Thanks WRECKS and Idzik for sticking with GeNO as your farewell present to Jet fans You can throw the trade chart out the window when it involves a franchise Qb. The Jets or any other team wants that pick they better be prepared to squeal like a pig. ( think deliverance) If no team is willing to pay their price- the Raiders should just be prepared to take Mariotta themselves. Let Carr and Mariotta battle it out, and can always trade one down the road.( going to get the most value back in that scenario) Also under your scenario. Some team takes Famous Jamius at 2 . Now the top two Qb's are off the board - do you think Tampa won't be on the phone with the Raiders asking what it's going to take to pry Mariotta from them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sg3 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 You can throw the trade chart out the window when it involves a franchise Qb. The Jets or any other team wants that pick they better be prepared to squeal like a pig. ( think deliverance) If no team is willing to pay their price- the Raiders should just be prepared to take Mariotta themselves. Let Carr and Mariotta battle it out, and can always trade one down the road.( going to get the most value back in that scenario) Also under your scenario. Some team takes Famous Jamius at 2 . Now the top two Qb's are off the board - do you think Tampa won't be on the phone with the Raiders asking what it's going to take to pry Mariotta from them. Did you pay off all those wagers you lost on that guaranteed,lock,sure thing stomping of the Jets you put in the books before week one? I was actually worried about you when you disappeared and went into hiding after the Raiders became the only team in all of 2014-15 that could make GeNO look decent. And you are quite wrong, nobody except possibly the two dumbass owners, Snyder and Davis gives more than trade chart value. And Al's retarded son already has the first pick despite all those sensational FA additions and super duper draft steals you were bragging about before your annual disappearance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raideraholic Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Did you pay off all those wagers you lost on that guaranteed,lock,sure thing stomping of the Jets you put in the books before week one? I was actually worried about you when you disappeared and went into hiding after the Raiders became the only team in all of 2014-15 that could make GeNO look decent. And you are quite wrong, nobody except possibly the two dumbass owners, Snyder and Davis gives more than trade chart value. And Al's retarded son already has the first pick despite all those sensational FA additions and super duper draft steals you were bragging about before your annual disappearance Looking back that Jet win against the Raiders might be the best thing that happened to the Raiders organization in sometime.( jets might be in position to control the draft). With that said you want a chance to draft Mariotta this year, you better back up the brinks truck to Mr Davis , because it's not going to be cheap to get up to number 1.( Raiders can pick Mariotta at one and get maximum value). Unfortunately even if you had the second pick, the second pick doesn't control the draft.( that goes to the team with the top pick- so dream away to get Mariotta going to be very cheap) Hey if you can live with Famous Jamison as your Qb, Geno Smith and M Vick going into next season . Good Luck with that, and let's see how that turns out. Tampa bay, The Titans, and the Rams , are some of the teams who would love to get a Qb. Let the bidding war begin. ( Jerry Jones will even let you get involved) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sg3 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Looking back that Jet win against the Raiders might be the best thing that happened to the Raiders organization in sometime.( jets might be in position to control the draft). With that said you want a chance to draft Mariotta this year, you better back up the brinks truck to Mr Davis , because it's not going to be cheap to get up to number 1.( Raiders can pick Mariotta at one and get maximum value). Unfortunately even if you had the second pick, the second pick doesn't control the draft.( that goes to the team with the top pick- so dream away to get Mariotta going to be very cheap) Hey if you can live with Famous Jamison as your Qb, Geno Smith and M Vick going into next season . Good Luck with that, and let's see how that turns out. Tampa bay, The Titans, and the Rams , are some of the teams who would love to get a Qb. Let the bidding war begin. ( Jerry Jones will even let you get involved) Keep living in your fantasy world. 400 points, maybe a bonus of 200 more since it's a QB from 2 up to 1. And of the others you mentioned, only the Bucs are all in for a QB Rams have Bradford, Titans Mecklenberger, Jones..Homo, Jaguars. Bortles... All four are better than Derek Carr, so maybe the Raiders will take Mariota... But knowing the Raider ownership and GM...you know in your heart they will take another Wide Receiver...probably not even Cooper...probably some bust everybody else has ranked in the fifth round that impressed Al's retarded son with a 4.3 combine time Admit it, you know that is your future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raideraholic Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Keep living in your fantasy world. 400 points, maybe a bonus of 200 more since it's a QB from 2 up to 1. And of the others you mentioned, only the Bucs are all in for a QB Rams have Bradford, Titans Mecklenberger, Jones..Homo, Jaguars. Bortles... All four are better than Derek Carr, so maybe the Raiders will take Mariota... But knowing the Raider ownership and GM...you know in your heart they will take another Wide Receiver...probably not even Cooper...probably some bust everybody else has ranked in the fifth round that impressed Al's retarded son with a 4.3 combine time Admit it, you know that is your future We will see in a couple months whose living in fantasy world. The truth will come out. The Rams will DEFINTELY be looking at the Qb position( that was Bradford last chance in St Louis- time to turn the page). When Geno Smith and M Vick are your starting Qb going forward I wouldn't comment about anyone else Qb position. I believe Raiders have their Qb( Carr) , and couldn't be more happy with him at Qb.( still to get maximum value they might have to take Mariotta at number 1.( Qb most important position, and that pick will pay ten fold if Raiders want to trade one of them away in the future. Who knows Winston might get his act together, and Jets might get a franchise Qb that way. Or they can draft him , and regret that decision for sometime. Good Luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 But hey, Oday Aboushi needs to LEARN how to WIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sg3 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 We will see in a couple months whose living in fantasy world. The truth will come out. The Rams will DEFINTELY be looking at the Qb position( that was Bradford last chance in St Louis- time to turn the page). When Geno Smith and M Vick are your starting Qb going forward I wouldn't comment about anyone else Qb position. I believe Raiders have their Qb , and couldn't be more happy with him at Qb.( still to get maximum value they might have to take Mariotta at number 1.( Qb most important position, and that pick will pay ten fold if Raiders want to trade one of them away in the future. Who knows Winston might get his act together, and Jets might get a franchise Qb that way. Or they can draft him , and regret that decision for sometime. good luck You're right. We'll see. Who are Dumb asses Davis and McKenzie looking at for the first overall pick in the 2016, 2017 and 2018 drafts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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