NFL.com's Bucky Brooks has Mariota Falling to #13 w/ Saints

[GREENBEAN]

That's why Gailey's hiring made me think Mariota was more of a possibility.  Bring in  a guy who has done good work with young QB's in the past and vet to hold the spot in the meantime.

Exactly. Who know's if they even like the kid, but to think that they won't take him because it could possibly mean that they will all go down if he stinks would be the wrong way to approach this IMO. 

[drdetroit]

Kelly's offense reminds me of the old Bills and Oilers teams that ran the run and shoot. Scored plenty of points but never won a ring. Could it be that their defenses were that worn out by the time they'd played their 17th/18th/19th game while spending 40+ minutes on the field?

The bills had much better personnel when they ran K-Gun and they still never won a Super Bowl.

[T0mShane]

Yeah but that's fear based thinking. I would hope (assuming they like Mariota at all) that they would welcome the challenge of molding an uber athletic guy into a success. That they believe in their ability to coach up players. Not shy away and stick with a Fitz type of QB because they don't want to sink the ship.

You're like a scared little girl with her pink dress saying "don't hurt me" .

No, I think it's a great idea to draft a QB whose weakness is passing.

[bgivs21]

Yes, but does he have Scherff going 1st overall!? 

[prime21]

LOVE Cooper. And the radiers are the type of dummies to fall in love with whites speed and athleticism over Coopers smooth route running and hands... Not to mention Cooper isn't slow. 4.3 is NOT slow.

There was an article in the ESPN Insider that says Oakland should upgrade their QB position by selecting Mariota.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2015/story/_/id/12522570/oakland-raiders-replace-derek-carr-marcus-mariota-2015-nfl-draft

Here is a part of the article for those don't have access.

On the surface Carr's rookie campaign compares favorably to other recent seasons by rookie QBs. He threw fewer interceptions (12) and completed a higher percentage of passes (58.1 percent) than Andrew Luck did (18, 54.1 percent) and he was the ninth rookie since the merger to throw at least 20 touchdown passes (21).

A deeper dive into Carr's numbers suggest his 2014 season left a lot to be desired, however. Carr finished the season with a 38.4 Total QBR, which ranked 28th out of 33 qualified quarterbacks. His QBR didn't rank favorably among other recent rookies, either. Of the 27 rookies to qualify since 2006 -- as far back as Total QBR data goes -- Carr's QBR ranks 15th, sandwiched between EJ Manuel (38.4) and Geno Smith (35.9).

Carr's QBR suffered because of minimal gains made on his passes. He averaged a mere 5.46 yards per attempt last season, which was not only worst in the NFL last season, it was one of the worst all time.

In the history of the NFL, only three quarterbacks have thrown at least 500 passes in a season and averaged fewer than 5.50 yards per attempt: Carr, Joey Harrington and Chris Weinke. Harrington and Weinke both did so within the first two years of their careers, and neither lasted long in the NFL.

Carr's inability to hit the deep ball contributed to his low yards per attempt. Carr completed a league-worst 22.4 percent of his passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield last season, and it's not as though his receivers were to blame. The Raiders lacked big-name receivers in 2013 as well, but the team ranked 12th overall completing deep passes (38.1 percent).

Was Carr's 2014 season a true showcase of the player he is and will be, or is it too early to tell?

ESPN Insider Mike Sando explored the topic last April and found that quarterbacks generally don't show great improvement in Total QBR beyond their first 16 starts.

There have been 44 quarterbacks to make their first 16 NFL starts since 2006 (not including Carr), and the average difference in QBR from their first 16 starts and their career totals is just 5.1 points.

Quarterbacks who started with a QBR under 40 (as Carr did) have seen even smaller differences (3.9 points on average). The biggest increase was by Mark Sanchez, whose career QBR is 9.8 points better than his first 16 starts (28.9).

A QBR of 50.0 is considered average, so Carr would need an improvement of nearly 12 points over his career to reach that mark. Only Matthew Stafford, who has improved by 13.4 points from his first 16 starts, has reached those levels. Stafford also had the talent level to be drafted No. 1 overall in 2009, and dealt with injuries early in his career.

It's possible Carr can improve upon his first 16 starts, and adding stability to the running game or drafting a top wide receiver would potentially help that endeavor. But regardless of the moves the Raiders could make, it's unlikely he'll improve to the level of an above-average NFL starter.

Best for business

Since their last playoff appearance in 2002 the Raiders have posted the worst winning percentage in the NFL, going 56-136 (.292). The Raiders have started 18 quarterbacks in that span and only Jason Campbell has a winning record (11-7). It's no coincidence, either, that the winningest teams in this time frame (Patriots, Colts, Steelers, Packers, Broncos) all benefited from elite quarterback play.

Since the JaMarcus Russell disaster, the Raiders simply haven't been in a position to draft a top quarterback prospect like Mariota, either by their own doings (trades) or by not bottoming out far enough. The Raiders didn't have a first-round pick in either 2011 or 2012, and picked 12th and fifth the past two years. The Raiders tried acquiring quarterbacks in that stretch, utilizing eight picks from 2012-14 to acquire seven quarterbacks, but that strategy has not helped matters.

Raiders Draft Picks Used To Acquire QBs Since 2007

Quarterback Pick Used How Acquired

Derek Carr 2014 2nd Round Draft

Matt Flynn 2014 5th Round Trade

Matt Schaub 2014 6th Round Trade

Carson Palmer 2013 2nd Round Trade

Tyler Wilson 2013 4th Round Draft

Terrelle Pryor 2012 3rd Round Supplemental Draft

Jason Campbell 2012 4th Round Trade

It might seem like overkill to add Mariota to that list, but if Carr doesn't improve enough, the Raiders would be right back in this position again, hoping a top prospect is available when they pick.

Mariota carries the potential of a franchise quarterback, something Carr has yet to display at either level. In college Carr logged three full seasons as Fresno State's quarterback and never posted a QBR season higher than 77.0. By comparison, Mariota's worst QBR in three seasons as Oregon's starter was 86.2.

Their performances at the collegiate level could be indicative of their ceilings in the professional ranks. There were 83 college quarterbacks from 2004-14 who logged three or more seasons of sub-80 QBRs. That group saw seven NFL starters last season: Carr, Nick Foles, Geno Smith, Austin Davis, Christian Ponder, Jake Locker and Chad Henne. As of now, Foles and Carr appear to be the only two of that group with a starting job in 2015. Quarterbacks with at least one season of QBR at or above 80 in the past 10 collegiate seasons include Luck, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick, Alex Smith, Teddy Bridgewater, Andy Dalton, Robert Griffin III and Sam Bradford.

Adding Mariota wouldn't hurt the Raiders financially either. Carr's contract goes through the 2017 season and doesn't count more than $1.7 million against the cap in any year, which makes him a trade asset (it's not unreasonable to think the Raiders could land a second- and fourth-rounder for Carr, given the need at the QB position for many teams in the league), and at worst a fairly priced backup.

Mariota also may help attract free agents to Oakland. Despite entering this free-agency period with the second-most cap space available, the Raiders have been unable to attract impact players. Center Rodney Hudson and linebacker Curtis Lofton are the only two players the Raiders have signed this offseason who played half their team's snaps last season.

The numbers suggest Carr is unlikely to develop into anything more than an average NFL QB. On draft day the Raiders could find themselves in a position to improve the most important position, and that's an opportunity they shouldn't let pass by.

[AFJF]

There was an article in the ESPN Insider that says Oakland should upgrade their QB position by selecting Mariota.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2015/story/_/id/12522570/oakland-raiders-replace-derek-carr-marcus-mariota-2015-nfl-draft

Here is a part of the article for those don't have access.

On the surface Carr's rookie campaign compares favorably to other recent seasons by rookie QBs. He threw fewer interceptions (12) and completed a higher percentage of passes (58.1 percent) than Andrew Luck did (18, 54.1 percent) and he was the ninth rookie since the merger to throw at least 20 touchdown passes (21).

A deeper dive into Carr's numbers suggest his 2014 season left a lot to be desired, however. Carr finished the season with a 38.4 Total QBR, which ranked 28th out of 33 qualified quarterbacks. His QBR didn't rank favorably among other recent rookies, either. Of the 27 rookies to qualify since 2006 -- as far back as Total QBR data goes -- Carr's QBR ranks 15th, sandwiched between EJ Manuel (38.4) and Geno Smith (35.9).

Carr's QBR suffered because of minimal gains made on his passes. He averaged a mere 5.46 yards per attempt last season, which was not only worst in the NFL last season, it was one of the worst all time.

In the history of the NFL, only three quarterbacks have thrown at least 500 passes in a season and averaged fewer than 5.50 yards per attempt: Carr, Joey Harrington and Chris Weinke. Harrington and Weinke both did so within the first two years of their careers, and neither lasted long in the NFL.

Carr's inability to hit the deep ball contributed to his low yards per attempt. Carr completed a league-worst 22.4 percent of his passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield last season, and it's not as though his receivers were to blame. The Raiders lacked big-name receivers in 2013 as well, but the team ranked 12th overall completing deep passes (38.1 percent).

Was Carr's 2014 season a true showcase of the player he is and will be, or is it too early to tell?

ESPN Insider Mike Sando explored the topic last April and found that quarterbacks generally don't show great improvement in Total QBR beyond their first 16 starts.

There have been 44 quarterbacks to make their first 16 NFL starts since 2006 (not including Carr), and the average difference in QBR from their first 16 starts and their career totals is just 5.1 points.

Quarterbacks who started with a QBR under 40 (as Carr did) have seen even smaller differences (3.9 points on average). The biggest increase was by Mark Sanchez, whose career QBR is 9.8 points better than his first 16 starts (28.9).

A QBR of 50.0 is considered average, so Carr would need an improvement of nearly 12 points over his career to reach that mark. Only Matthew Stafford, who has improved by 13.4 points from his first 16 starts, has reached those levels. Stafford also had the talent level to be drafted No. 1 overall in 2009, and dealt with injuries early in his career.

It's possible Carr can improve upon his first 16 starts, and adding stability to the running game or drafting a top wide receiver would potentially help that endeavor. But regardless of the moves the Raiders could make, it's unlikely he'll improve to the level of an above-average NFL starter.

Best for business

Since their last playoff appearance in 2002 the Raiders have posted the worst winning percentage in the NFL, going 56-136 (.292). The Raiders have started 18 quarterbacks in that span and only Jason Campbell has a winning record (11-7). It's no coincidence, either, that the winningest teams in this time frame (Patriots, Colts, Steelers, Packers, Broncos) all benefited from elite quarterback play.

Since the JaMarcus Russell disaster, the Raiders simply haven't been in a position to draft a top quarterback prospect like Mariota, either by their own doings (trades) or by not bottoming out far enough. The Raiders didn't have a first-round pick in either 2011 or 2012, and picked 12th and fifth the past two years. The Raiders tried acquiring quarterbacks in that stretch, utilizing eight picks from 2012-14 to acquire seven quarterbacks, but that strategy has not helped matters.

Raiders Draft Picks Used To Acquire QBs Since 2007

Quarterback Pick Used How Acquired

Derek Carr 2014 2nd Round Draft

Matt Flynn 2014 5th Round Trade

Matt Schaub 2014 6th Round Trade

Carson Palmer 2013 2nd Round Trade

Tyler Wilson 2013 4th Round Draft

Terrelle Pryor 2012 3rd Round Supplemental Draft

Jason Campbell 2012 4th Round Trade

It might seem like overkill to add Mariota to that list, but if Carr doesn't improve enough, the Raiders would be right back in this position again, hoping a top prospect is available when they pick.

Mariota carries the potential of a franchise quarterback, something Carr has yet to display at either level. In college Carr logged three full seasons as Fresno State's quarterback and never posted a QBR season higher than 77.0. By comparison, Mariota's worst QBR in three seasons as Oregon's starter was 86.2.

Their performances at the collegiate level could be indicative of their ceilings in the professional ranks. There were 83 college quarterbacks from 2004-14 who logged three or more seasons of sub-80 QBRs. That group saw seven NFL starters last season: Carr, Nick Foles, Geno Smith, Austin Davis, Christian Ponder, Jake Locker and Chad Henne. As of now, Foles and Carr appear to be the only two of that group with a starting job in 2015. Quarterbacks with at least one season of QBR at or above 80 in the past 10 collegiate seasons include Luck, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick, Alex Smith, Teddy Bridgewater, Andy Dalton, Robert Griffin III and Sam Bradford.

Adding Mariota wouldn't hurt the Raiders financially either. Carr's contract goes through the 2017 season and doesn't count more than $1.7 million against the cap in any year, which makes him a trade asset (it's not unreasonable to think the Raiders could land a second- and fourth-rounder for Carr, given the need at the QB position for many teams in the league), and at worst a fairly priced backup.

Mariota also may help attract free agents to Oakland. Despite entering this free-agency period with the second-most cap space available, the Raiders have been unable to attract impact players. Center Rodney Hudson and linebacker Curtis Lofton are the only two players the Raiders have signed this offseason who played half their team's snaps last season.

The numbers suggest Carr is unlikely to develop into anything more than an average NFL QB. On draft day the Raiders could find themselves in a position to improve the most important position, and that's an opportunity they shouldn't let pass by.

 

Doesn't help that they benched Denarius Moore this year either.

[jgb]

No way he falls that far. Chip Kelly would move up in a heartbeat if he starts slipping

[AFJF]

No way he falls that far. Chip Kelly would move up in a heartbeat if he starts slipping

 

Tweeted Brooks earlier to ask him that.  I can't see Chip not making a move if he falls, especially out of the top-10.

[jgb]

Tweeted Brooks earlier to ask him that.  I can't see Chip not making a move if he falls, especially out of the top-10.

 

I guess his thought is if he slips past Jets there are no more QB needy teams until either cleveland (12) or saints (13), assuming rams are happy with Foles. But I agree with you i don't see Kelly letting him go that far.

[Jetlife33]

Oh Bucky

[chirorob]

Mariota and Petty both had excellent combines too. They're both great athletes neither one will be a great nfl qb or even good.

Mariota probably just needs time to get used to the NFL.  But too many teams won't let  a QB sit. 

 

A good example, Steve Young, Air McNair.  Both, great athletes, sat a bit, then got better. 

[Beerfish]

I would not be at all surprised to see him fall, not the least bit surprised.  Some guy every year falls further than thought and Mariota is ripe for this.

[FTL Jet Fan]

I cant see Mariota dropping that far if he is there at 6 (which i doubt he will be) the Jets are taking him unless they get blown away by an offer to trade down. I am not high on Mariota, I prefer Cooper but if our FO decides to take then so be it.

[JetBlue]

LOVE Cooper. And the radiers are the type of dummies to fall in love with whites speed and athleticism over Coopers smooth route running and hands... Not to mention Cooper isn't slow. 4.3 is NOT slow.

Does that mean because you love Cooper that White is a bad pick for them? I don't get it.  Cooper is a stud, so is White; what is the problem here?  You mention Coopers hands, have you seen White catch the ball?  The guy snatches the ball out of the air like Beckham on the Giants.   Also the guy is Marshall-like in his ability to go up and get the ball.  Right now, Cooper is more polished and accomplished as a receiver, White is still scratching the surface of what he is capable of and his best football is definitely ahead of him.  You can't go wrong with EITHER of them. 

[snow_monkey]

Unless he's found snorting cocaine off a dead hookers ass...I don't see him falling that far.

[AFJF]

Unless he's found snorting cocaine off a dead hookers ass...I don't see him falling that far.

 

Plenty of time between now and the draft...can't rule anything out.

[Patriot Killa]

Does that mean because you love Cooper that White is a bad pick for them? I don't get it. Cooper is a stud, so is White; what is the problem here? You mention Coopers hands, have you seen White catch the ball? The guy snatches the ball out of the air like Beckham on the Giants. Also the guy is Marshall-like in his ability to go up and get the ball. Right now, Cooper is more polished and accomplished as a receiver, White is still scratching the surface of what he is capable of and his best football is definitely ahead of him. You can't go wrong with EITHER of them.

No. Not what I meant. I simply meant I wanted Cooper more.

[DaBallhawk]

That thing looks just absolutely stupid. There is no way so many teams, QB needy teams, pass on Mariota. Beasley I'd be ok with. Would love to trade down a few spots and still be able to grab him.

[drdetroit]

That thing looks just absolutely stupid. There is no way so many teams, QB needy teams, pass on Mariota. Beasley I'd be ok with. Would love to trade down a few spots and still be able to grab him.

I don't buy for a second Kelly doesn't prefer mariota to Bradford.

[JetBlue]

No. Not what I meant. I simply meant I wanted Cooper more.

Fair enough.

[Ex-Rex]

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/mock-drafts/bucky-brooks/245603?campaign=Facebook_cfb_brooks

 

 

Jets take Beasley at #6

 

It seems 'fashionable' for these NFL Network twerps to have Mariota 'falling' to teams like the Browns, Rams and now the Saints? No way that happens, at least it shouldn't. If Mariota is there at six the Jets WILL TAKE HIM. Why can't these knuckleheads realize that we have a solid GM in place who knows that QB is the single most important position on the field and you NEVER pass on a potential franchise one. I know Bowles has said you don't need a franchise QB to win the SB, I respectfully disagree. I think it was simply coachspeak on his part. I know it is a risk, but almost ALL players in the draft come with some risk and it is better to take the QB that busts rather than pass on a QB that beats your a$$ for the next 12 years.

[Tony The Wiz]

Mariota is going number 2 like I said for many months. He should go number 1.

[pdxgreen]

   I think its Mariota to Washington with the fifth pick.

[Larz]

doesn't mayock have him at #7 to the bears ?  I think that is as low as he goes

 

shane is just terrified he will come here and break his heart

 

its ok tom, marcus wouldn't do you like that

[RoadFan]

I thought it would be a huge mistake to take Mariota a few weeks ago with Geno as the only other QB on the roster. With Fitz in the fold, it gives them a guy who should be able to play well enough that the fans won't be screaming for Mariota by week 3. Since he'd actually have a legit chance to sit and learn I wouldn't be as upset about it as I would have before if it was going to be Mariota and Geno.

That being said, a project QB at six is still a huge gamble. I'd prefer a safer bet with an edge rusher.

An edge rusher is NOT a safer bet. They are equal bets. Of the 3 edge rushers everyone expects to go in the first 8-10 picks... one will be very good, one average, and one will be a total bust.

[T0mShane]

doesn't mayock have him at #7 to the bears ? I think that is as low as he goes

shane is just terrified he will come here and break his heart

its ok tom, marcus wouldn't do you like that

Jets fans deserve the Mariota Era. They really do.

[CaliforniaJet]

Marriota, Cooper, White, or Fowler. I hope one of these guys is there at 6. 

[RoadFan]

Marriota, Cooper, White, or Fowler. I hope one of these guys is there at 6.

My brother is a Gator alum. Watched him almost every game. Thinks Fowler is good but not the prospect most are making him out to be.

[Larz]

Jets fans deserve the Mariota Era. They really do.

 

I have gone back and forth on this guy.  first impression was "I hate running QB's, he's just going to get hurt."  Then I watched him and he just has the "it" factor, the eye test.  The last QB I felt this way about was matt ryan.  He isn't an elite QB, but he is way above what we have had since I became a jets fan.  

Then I cooled off on him, I thought he is just this years great college QB who wan't make it in the NFL.  Then he has the heisman speech and wins the national title and his career just starts to look like a story book so I'm back on board.

I keep reading how scouts think he is very coachable and competitive and a true natural leader.  His arm isn't amazeballs, but it isn't pennington either

 

He won't ever be manning or elway or anything like that, but with the defense this team has, we only need him to be russel wilson

 

I think he can be that in his 2nd year.  

[T0mShane]

I have gone back and forth on this guy. first impression was "I hate running QB's, he's just going to get hurt." Then I watched him and he just has the "it" factor, the eye test. The last QB I felt this way about was matt ryan. He isn't an elite QB, but he is way above what we have had since I became a jets fan.

Then I cooled off on him, I thought he is just this years great college QB who wan't make it in the NFL. Then he has the heisman speech and wins the national title and his career just starts to look like a story book so I'm back on board.

I keep reading how scouts think he is very coachable and competitive and a true natural leader. His arm isn't amazeballs, but it isn't pennington either

He won't ever be manning or elway or anything like that, but with the defense this team has, we only need him to be russel wilson

I think he can be that in his 2nd year.

Everything you wrote here makes me want to puke.

[Larz]

Everything you wrote here makes me want to puke.

 

see there it is, you are terrified he will break your heart.  it's ok.  he will go #5 and you know what that means as a jets fan....

[Larz]

bucky brooks "outstanding pocket passer"

 

outstanding

pocket

passer

 

"everything you want in a franchise quarterback"

 

 

get on the train shane

 

 

https://youtu.be/0guPsv-4zX4

[RutgersJetFan]

bucky brooks "outstanding pocket passer"

 

outstanding

pocket

passer

 

"everything you want in a franchise quarterback"

 

 

get on the train shane

 

 

https://youtu.be/0guPsv-4zX4

 

That video is so professional. You can't even tell that they're sitting in front of a green screen.

[Larz]

That video is so professional. You can't even tell that they're sitting in front of a green screen.

 

only you would see that, lol

[AFJF]

An edge rusher is NOT a safer bet. They are equal bets. Of the 3 edge rushers everyone expects to go in the first 8-10 picks... one will be very good, one average, and one will be a total bust.

 

I respectfully disagree.  The pass rushers will be asked to continue doing what they've been doing up to this point and will all be able to contribute in some capacity from day one.  There are many things Mariota will be asked to do that he has never done before, therefore nobody knows if he can do them at all.