Is Geno Smith a GOOD DEEP BALL THROWER?

[Jet Nut]

Decker and Harvin weren't there in 2013. He was one of the worst deep ball throwers in the league with Decker and Harvin in 2014.

Harvin came in after the start of the season, took a few weekz to get the offense down and then played 4 gamez with Vick.  

Never mind he suckz and isn't a real WR who goez long 

[FloridaJetsFan]

Fitzpatrick will, rightfully, get the Dolphins game.  If he plays well they will  keep rolling with him.  If he sh*ts the bed they will take the bye week to reassess. 

 

This. Too many here sound like they want to make Geno the starter in London and just piss into the wind. He missed a whole lot of practice and I don't think he's the best option for this team right now.

[Scoop24]

LOL

Here come the excuses.

I don't need any Fitz play with the best receiving core we had since 2010 is all I need to prove my point . 

 

And my point still remains who was the deep threats on last years team ?

[joewilly12]

Lets not forget the 3 deep ball threats they provided Geno Smith with Santonio No show Holmes and Stephen I cant catch Hill Clyde All World Gates

[predator_05]

decker was hurt a lot last season. But when he played him and Geno had very good chemistry .. Plenty of 15+ yard passes in that last game vs the Dolphins.. 

Harvin is one of the worst deep threats in the league . Even with his great speed he doesn't play Deep balls well hell that game Geno had 3 ints back to back  it was forced deep balls to Harvin to watch him fall down . Hence why he is never used strictly as Reciever .. 

 

You think any WR is catching 200 yards in game playing with Fitz?  He gonna need 20 catches that day just to come close .

This is interesting. So it's Harvin's fault that Geno had a bad deep ball efficiency. That's a new one.

Didn't Hopkins get 200+ in a game w/ Fitz last year?

[Paradis]

nobody wants to address the post about his record huh? Figures.. lame.

 

Fitz needs to start the London game obviously - being a short week traveling and Geno needs more practice time... but y'all are still dreaming if you think Fitz is starting 16 games for the Jets this year

[Scoop24]

This is interesting. So it's Harvin's fault that Geno had a bad deep ball efficiency. That's a new one.

Didn't Hopkins get 200+ in a game w/ Fitz last year?

 

you might be right Hopkins did have 200 yard vs the Titans not sure who the QB was. Could very well had been Fitz

 

Did Harvin not fall down on those deep balls ? 

[predator_05]

nobody wants to address the post about his record huh? Figures.. lame.

 

Fitz needs to start the London game obviously - being a short week traveling and Geno needs more practice time... but y'all are still dreaming if you think Fitz is starting 16 games for the Jets this year

This thread isn't about Fitz, who we all know is a 1 year rental.

Let's talk about Geno's record on the Jets. 30 games, 34 INTs. More "blind numbers", i guess. I'm guessing half those 34 INTs were the receivers' fault, they were trying to screw him over.

 

[nyjunc]

This thread isn't about Fitz, who we all know is a 1 year rental.

Let's talk about Geno's record on the Jets. 30 games, 34 INTs. More "blind numbers", i guess. I'm guessing half those 34 INTs were the receivers' fault, they were trying to screw him over.

 

Fitz has  3 games w/ 5 INTs, is that a good pace for you? but at least we finally have a vet who protects the ball!

[Paradis]

This thread isn't about Fitz, who we all know is a 1 year rental.

Let's talk about Geno's record on the Jets. 30 games, 34 INTs. More "blind numbers", i guess. I'm guessing half those 34 INTs were the receivers' fault, they were trying to screw him over.

 

Too bad, guido-supreme - I'm making it about Fitz. 35-56... 20 of those wins from OAK, CLE, JAX, KC, WSH and MIA... explain. When you include TEN, DET, ARZ and BUF, you're up to 27 wins.. 

The fck do you expect from that guy? He's 5-40 against teams with a winning record. 

[elgoman]

This thread isn't about Fitz, who we all know is a 1 year rental.

Let's talk about Geno's record on the Jets. 30 games, 34 INTs. More "blind numbers", i guess. I'm guessing half those 34 INTs were the receivers' fault, they were trying to screw him over.

 

 

I thought this thread was about Geno's deep ball ability? In 2013 Geno was at least average and closer to a good deep baller passer overall. In 2014 he was throwing deep balls to JAGs and Kerley until Harvin was slotted in and Decker got healthy. Then Geno was throwing 15+ balls all the time. So yes, the smart evidence suggests Geno is a "good deep ball thrower". With the addition of Marshall, Devin Smith and Decker, he will be "good" in all probability. 

[Scoop24]

This thread isn't about Fitz, who we all know is a 1 year rental.

Let's talk about Geno's record on the Jets. 30 games, 34 INTs. More "blind numbers", i guess. I'm guessing half those 34 INTs were the receivers' fault, they were trying to screw him over.

 

lol most of those recievers aren't in the league ..

 

nelson , Clyde gates ,tj graham, Greg salas, salim hakeem

all on there couch right now and the wonderful Jeremy Kerley who is losing reps to Enuwa or Ouwsu

[Villain The Foe]

This needs its own thread, since its become a common theme in all the other threads.

Seems to me that the main argument for starting Geno are his PHYSICAL TOOLZ, i.e. a SHTRONG arm that will have DBs scampering out of fear. But how effective is he when throwing the ball downfield? Let's look at some numbers from last year.

Obviously, the pro Geno guys will retort with the old 'HE DIDN'T HAVE ANY WEAPONS BRO!!!!111'.

But equally inexperienced rooks like Teddy Bridgewater and Zach Mettenberger had no WEAPONS either...yet, still had much better accuracy throwing deep? Hell, they might have been a little bit better if they had Eric Decker for 15 games, or Percy Harvin.

Based on what we now know, does Geno really deserve to start on the basis of having a strong arm...even though he has proven to be horribly inaccurate when he gets plenty of time to throw?

Charts: Who Are The Best Deep Passers In The NFL?

130,125

7

Reuben Fischer-Baum

Filed to: NFL11/23/13 11:00am

Deep passes are the most exciting play in televised football—the viewing audience can't see the situation downfield until the ball (and the camera) make it down there, so the play always feels, in that tiny moment before we catch up, like a sure touchdown or interception. It's well known that not every QB in the league has the ability (or proclivity) to throw a good deep ball, but we want to know: Who are best deeper passers in the NFL?

Let's look at this from a few different angles. For starters, let's look at who's actually throwing it downfield. Pro Football Focus has tracked every single passing attempt at a target 20+ yards down the field going back to 2008. The chart at the top shows, for this year's QBs (min. 150 total attempts), who's thrown deep passes the most often over the six seasons, as a percentage of total attempts. There are some surprises in there—I didn't know Jake Locker chucked it so often—but for the most part this conforms with general assumptions about who have the "strong arms" in the league. Slingers like Eli Manning and Joe Flacco are towards the top, while dink-and-dunkers like Ryan Tannehill, Christian Ponder, Alex Smith, and Matt Schaub are towards the bottom.

But who's throwing the most accurate deep throws? Pro Football Focus also tracks receiver drops, so instead of completion percentage—which knocks the QB for throws that should have been caught—we can use PFF's "accuracy" figure, which is a measurement of how many throws were on target (completions + drops over attempts):

Well that might be why I hadn't heard too much about Jake Locker—while he ranks first in the league in deep pass attempt rate, just 35.6 percent of his deep looks are on target, which puts him at 26th in the league. Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick have been accurate on over 50 percent of their deep throws so far in their careers, which is just absurd, joining Drew Brees at the very top (with Geno Smith and Aaron Rodgers close behind). Mike Glennon and Matt Schaub are notable in that they attempt very few deep passes, but when they do they've been very accurate. Finally, it's interesting to see that while Eli Manning has seen a lot of success with the deep ball, Joe Flacco has actually been pretty terrible.

Accuracy isn't a perfectly fair measure though; a 25-yard first down is great, but it's not as good as a 50-yard touchdown, even if that throw is harder to hit. Here's a chart of yards per attempt by QB on 20+ yard targets, still from 2008 through present:

Drew Brees takes over the top spot, thanks in no small part to the absurd downfield dominance of Jimmy Graham. Joe Flacco joins a very sad group of passers who are at least 10% below the league average, although Tom Brady, Jay Cutler, and Matt Stafford aren't far behind. The Jets face the Ravens this weekend in a critical game for the AFC playoff picture, and while a very successful deep passer will be taking the field, it probably isn't the QB you'd expect it to be.

 

 

 

LMAO! 

[Jetsfan80]

Charts: Who Are The Best Deep Passers In The NFL?

130,125

7

Reuben Fischer-Baum

Filed to: NFL11/23/13 11:00am

Deep passes are the most exciting play in televised football—the viewing audience can't see the situation downfield until the ball (and the camera) make it down there, so the play always feels, in that tiny moment before we catch up, like a sure touchdown or interception. It's well known that not every QB in the league has the ability (or proclivity) to throw a good deep ball, but we want to know: Who are best deeper passers in the NFL?

Let's look at this from a few different angles. For starters, let's look at who's actually throwing it downfield. Pro Football Focus has tracked every single passing attempt at a target 20+ yards down the field going back to 2008. The chart at the top shows, for this year's QBs (min. 150 total attempts), who's thrown deep passes the most often over the six seasons, as a percentage of total attempts. There are some surprises in there—I didn't know Jake Locker chucked it so often—but for the most part this conforms with general assumptions about who have the "strong arms" in the league. Slingers like Eli Manning and Joe Flacco are towards the top, while dink-and-dunkers like Ryan Tannehill, Christian Ponder, Alex Smith, and Matt Schaub are towards the bottom.

But who's throwing the most accurate deep throws? Pro Football Focus also tracks receiver drops, so instead of completion percentage—which knocks the QB for throws that should have been caught—we can use PFF's "accuracy" figure, which is a measurement of how many throws were on target (completions + drops over attempts):

Well that might be why I hadn't heard too much about Jake Locker—while he ranks first in the league in deep pass attempt rate, just 35.6 percent of his deep looks are on target, which puts him at 26th in the league. Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick have been accurate on over 50 percent of their deep throws so far in their careers, which is just absurd, joining Drew Brees at the very top (with Geno Smith and Aaron Rodgers close behind). Mike Glennon and Matt Schaub are notable in that they attempt very few deep passes, but when they do they've been very accurate. Finally, it's interesting to see that while Eli Manning has seen a lot of success with the deep ball, Joe Flacco has actually been pretty terrible.

Accuracy isn't a perfectly fair measure though; a 25-yard first down is great, but it's not as good as a 50-yard touchdown, even if that throw is harder to hit. Here's a chart of yards per attempt by QB on 20+ yard targets, still from 2008 through present:

Drew Brees takes over the top spot, thanks in no small part to the absurd downfield dominance of Jimmy Graham. Joe Flacco joins a very sad group of passers who are at least 10% below the league average, although Tom Brady, Jay Cutler, and Matt Stafford aren't far behind. The Jets face the Ravens this weekend in a critical game for the AFC playoff picture, and while a very successful deep passer will be taking the field, it probably isn't the QB you'd expect it to be.

 

 

 

LMAO! 

 

This chart comes from November 2013.  You know, 2 months into Geno Smith's career.  The numbers say he is now in the bottom third of those lists 2 years in.

 

[Lupz27]

Decker and Harvin weren't there in 2013. He was one of the worst deep ball throwers in the league with Decker and Harvin in 2014.

Decker player healthy for about 4 games, and some how ended up with 900+ yard recieving, and 90% of those yards came with Geno at QB, now throw in Marahall, and Smith maybe just maybe he will be ok.

I don't like Geno, but I know what Fitz is, a 11 year proven LOSER!  Geno is on year 3 playing in a functional organization for the first time in his career so yes I'd like to see what the kid can do instead of that loser Fitzpatrick, then the Jets will know which direction they need to take in 2016 at QB.

[Villain The Foe]

 

This chart comes from November 2013.  You know, 2 months into Geno Smith's career.  The numbers say he is now in the bottom third of those lists 2 years in.

So what. His information comes way after the fact of knowing that Geno had the worst receiving group in all of football yet somehow it seems to still be relevant. 

[predator_05]

Too bad, guido-supreme - I'm making it about Fitz. 35-56... 20 of those wins from OAK, CLE, JAX, KC, WSH and MIA... explain. When you include TEN, DET, ARZ and BUF, you're up to 27 wins.. 

The fck do you expect from that guy? He's 5-40 against teams with a winning record. 

I don't expect anything, Fitz is a one year rental, he won't be here next year, so i don't really care about him.

I'd play him over Geno though, who is the sh*ttiest QB in the league.

[smaxor5]

Yeah, Geno's deep balls to Greg Salas,1 legged Eric Decker, TJ Graham, Jeremy Kerley, David Nelson, Stephen Hill, Clyde Gates, Josh Cribbs, Saalim Hakim and post injury Santonio Holmes were terrible.  We shouldn't even give him a chance to play with Brandon Marshall, a legit deep threat in Devin Smith and a healthy Eric Decker.  Better to stick with known crap.

That's literally your guys argument. 

[Lupz27]

That is an average.  It doesn't mean he wasn't pressured.  Geno has tended to extend plays, often to his detriment, by running around back there.  That does not mean that he got to step into a clean pocket.  Some of that has been piss poor guard play that flushed him and some is him getting happy feet too soon.  I think that nyjunc is as full of sh*t as the next guy, but that doesn't mean that numbers without context are definitive.

Fitzpatrick will, rightfully, get the Dolphins game.  If he plays well they will  keep rolling with him.  If he sh*ts the bed they will take the bye week to reassess.  Everybody knew he was getting until the bye. 

Why don't you stop restricting your numbers to last year and stop using the "phrase" GOOD DEEP BALL THROWER?   It sounds ridiculous.  Why not try deep passer?  None of these guys are Daryle Lamonica, but Geno is a hell of a lot closer.  I would like to see how Gailey intends you use him and I would want him used, not treated like a delicate flower - force him to run now and then on read option stuff to keep the D worried about it (and wasting practice time on during the week) and simplify his reads which it seems Gailey is good at.

 

People also need to understand it's not just throwing deep, it's pushing the ball outside the numbers, something Fitz struggles with, and Geno has the arm to make those throws, it's the anticipation, and timing Geno has struggled with, but that's expected in the first 2 years in the NFL after playing in a spread offense in college.

[thshadow]

. So yes, the smart evidence suggests Geno is a "good deep ball thrower". 

Also, our eyes tell us that Fitz is *not* a good deep ball thrower.  He's certainly been terrible at it these first 3 games, both execution and even decision-making.

That doesn't mean we should necessarily replace him with Geno.  But if Fitz can't get at least a little bit better at them, this offense is going to suck even more as the defenses adapt...

[Villain The Foe]

I don't expect anything, Fitz is a one year rental, he won't be here next year, so i don't really care about him.

I'd play him over Geno though, who is the sh*ttiest QB in the league.

Having a 5-40 record lifetime against teams with a winning record would argue otherwise. You're not even paying attention. 

[smaxor5]

People also need to understand it's not just throwing deep, it's pushing the ball outside the numbers, something Fitz struggles with, and Geno has the arm to make those throws, it's the anticipation, and timing Geno has struggled with, but that's expected in the first 2 years in the NFL after playing in a spread offense in college.

Thank you.  This is the reason Drew Brees looks like sh*t right now and did last year.  Teams are taking away the much shorter throws to the middle of the field and forcing him to the sidelines...he doesn't have the arm strength to get the ball there in time anymore.

[Jetsfan80]

So what. His information comes way after the fact of knowing that Geno had the worst receiving group in all of football yet somehow it seems to still be relevant. 

He also showed how several of the terrible QB's ahead of Geno on the list had worse receiving corps' than Geno.  Yes, it's frustrating watching Fitz underthrow Devin Smith, but it will be just as frustrating watching Geno launch passes vaguely in Devin's direction, ending up wildly out of bounds or into the hands of a safety.  The grass is not greener on the other side.  I sure wish it was.

[elgoman]

 

This chart comes from November 2013.  You know, 2 months into Geno Smith's career.  The numbers say he is now in the bottom third of those lists 2 years in.

 

 

PFF has Geno top 10 in deep accuracy percentage up to December 2013. Geno's play actually improved in December 2013 so his percentage probably remained the same or improved. Then in 2014 he had no Holmes and a hobbled Decker, and his accuracy sank. That's his whole "two years in" story. The kind of poor posts I see on this forum is nauseating.

[predator_05]

Having a 5-40 record lifetime against teams with a winning record would argue otherwise. You're not even paying attention. 

Because it's pointless. Which of the 2 QBs played better in 2014? Wouldn't recent records be more relevant?

[Paradis]

I don't expect anything, Fitz is a one year rental, he won't be here next year, so i don't really care about him.

I'd play him over Geno though, who is the sh*ttiest QB in the league.

 

 

That's actually super inaccurate:

Clausen

McCown x2

Fitz

Vick

Manziel

Hoyer

Mallet

Weeden

...Debateably Cutler and Cousins

 

Those are all people I'd take Geno over right now.

 

You need to take a step back.

 

 

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[EM31]

Assuming people on this board actually watch NY Jets games then you do not need someone compiling stats to know from your own eyes and your own memory that Geno is a HORRIBLY INACCURATE QB.  The further the throw the worse it is.

[Jetsfan80]

Assuming people on this board actually watch NY Jets games then you do not need someone compiling stats to know from your own eyes and your own memory that Geno is a HORRIBLY INACCURATE QB.  The further the throw the worse it is.

He once threw a hail mary out of bounds.  Enough said.  When it comes to horrible days by a QB over the last 7 years, Fitz's yesterday probably doesn't even register in the top 20.  Sanchez and Geno have all 20 spots on lock.  But yeah, let's pin that all on the weapons and not because our QB's have been utter dumbasses.

 

[56mehl56]

He also showed how several of the terrible QB's ahead of Geno on the list had worse receiving corps' than Geno.  Yes, it's frustrating watching Fitz underthrow Devin Smith, but it will be just as frustrating watching Geno launch passes vaguely in Devin's direction, ending up wildly out of bounds or into the hands of a safety.  The grass is not greener on the other side.  I sure wish it was.

Both scenarios are bad for the Jets, but at least in Geno's case it helps to open up the running game and middle of the field.

[predator_05]

Yeah, Geno's deep balls to Greg Salas,1 legged Eric Decker, TJ Graham, Jeremy Kerley, David Nelson, Stephen Hill, Clyde Gates, Josh Cribbs, Saalim Hakim and post injury Santonio Holmes were terrible.  We shouldn't even give him a chance to play with Brandon Marshall, a legit deep threat in Devin Smith and a healthy Eric Decker.  Better to stick with known crap.

That's literally your guys argument. 

Its a better argument than the ones you guys are presenting, which is ENTIRELY hypothetical. 

[Beerfish]

Having a 5-40 record lifetime against teams with a winning record would argue otherwise. You're not even paying attention. 

Geno is 2-12 in that department so far by my quick count.  In any case this whole Geno vs Fitzpatrick argument is humorous and sad at the same time as they are both lousy and neither one of them are going to lead the Jets anywhere. 

[Paradis]

Its a better argument than the ones you guys are presenting, which is ENTIRELY hypothetical. 

Why even draft players then? They're all hypothetical. We ought to just trade all picks for journeyman backups and bandaides?

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[#27TheDominator]

November 23, 2013 Geno Smith was 10 games into his NFL career and his deep ball passing was at the top of the league.  Why is 2014 more relevant?  Because it is more recent?  Then why not post numbers from Geno's last start?

Deep Left:

Eric Decker 2 targets 2 catches 114 yards 1 TD

Jeremy Kerley 1 target 1 catch 33 yards

Deep Right:

Jeff Cumberland 1 target 1 catch 23 yards 1 TD

Eric Decker 1 target 1 catch 50 yards

Chris Owusu 1 target 1 catch 36 yards

[Lupz27]

Geno is 2-12 in that department so far by my quick count.  In any case this whole Geno vs Fitzpatrick argument is humorous and sad at the same time as they are both lousy and neither one of them are going to lead the Jets anywhere. 

The guys wanting Geno understand it's a guy in year 3 VS a guy in year 11 with much more physical tools.  If the Jets had sh*t at WR then yes I think Fitz would be the better option, but with the weapons at WR Geno is the way to go, and it probably is pick your lesser of 2 evils, but atleast 1 guy might have the light bulb go on while the other is already burning out.

[Villain The Foe]

He also showed how several of the terrible QB's ahead of Geno on the list had worse receiving corps' than Geno.  Yes, it's frustrating watching Fitz underthrow Devin Smith, but it will be just as frustrating watching Geno launch passes vaguely in Devin's direction, ending up wildly out of bounds or into the hands of a safety.  The grass is not greener on the other side.  I sure wish it was.

No it didnt, it said that those QB also had bad receiving corps, however Geno had the worst in the NFL in 2013 along with revolving doors at LG and RG. 

No one is saying that Geno is good. Im on record saying that we should have traded for a young starting QB. What this guy is doing is skewing information because he's making it seem like all of the passing game's fault was on Geno when we know that Jeff Cumberland, David Nelson, Santonio Holmes, Jeremy Kerley and Stephen Hill wasnt cutting it. 

You dont know if the grass is greener on the other side or not. Geno hasnt been on the field with Smith, Decker and Marshall. You dont know if Geno could function in Gailey's system or not because you havent seen him in the system. 

This is the problem with all of this "certainty". Im not saying that Geno is no our franchise guy, but Fitzpatrick, a guy who is experienced in this system, isnt keeping Geno at bay with his performance. And for the fact that it was confirmed that Geno was looking better than Fitz during training camp I feel like some people here are disregarding that conveniently because I bet if Geno had that game last night and it was Fitz who had a better training camp these same guys would be screaming about how we should put in Fitzpatrick because he was outperforming Geno in training camp. You and I both know it.