Ryan Fitzpatrick: MERGED

[Rangers9]

5 minutes ago, slats said:

I just listed three starters and three reserves, all under contract for Fitzpatrick money. I don't have a crystal ball or a scouting department here on my couch to determine who precisely would have to be cut if they sign Fitzpatrick, or who precisely they might be able to sign in the future if they don't, but the six players I listed have a lot more value to the team than Ryan Fitzpatrick adds over the already under contract Geno Smith this year. And if Geno is the bridge to Hackenberg or Petty next and they have $15-18M available to sign more free agents that they wouldn't've had if Fitz signed, the team will be that same $15-18M better next year. As demonstrated, that's a few starters, and a few reserves. 

Ok, so state it that way. Except it's pretty obvious the Jets don't want to go in that direction. It's also obvious that Geno is the cheaper option. You know what the say. You get what you pay for. 

[slats]

4 minutes ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

It wouldn't be 15 million against this year's cap. And none of those guys is the difference between the Jets last year and the Jets making it to the Super Bowl. They're all also under contract.

I want to know the names of these guys they can bring in next season with no Fitzmoney to be burdened with, in theory, that will put the Jets above and beyond. 

See my reply to Rangers. I don't have a scouting department here at the house. You don't think guys like Clady, Carpenter, Forte, and Powell are potential Super Bowl pieces? I don't know what to tell you. You must hate these guys. You wanna split it up over two years (now $18M) or three (now $24M) look up your own contracts and see. It's a lot of money. Money I do not believe that Fitz is worth over Geno. At all. 

Unfortunately, he'll probably sign. Fortunately, that'll put me in that cool, fun, I told you so position that I see so many other people have enjoy themselves with. 

[slats]

4 minutes ago, Rangers9 said:

Ok, so state it that way. Except it's pretty obvious the Jets don't want to go in that direction. It's also obvious that Geno is the cheaper option. You know what the say. You get what you pay for. 

Here in the latter part of June, it's also pretty obvious that the Jets want Fitz only if he comes on their terms. 

Resigning Fitzpatrick off his season against the easiest schedule in the league, often catching opponents with key injuries/losses, in an unusually mild football season is akin to your other hero John Idzik re-upping Rex Ryan in his second year. Like Fitz, Rex exceeded expectations by going 8-8 with an obviously decimated squad. Statistically that was a four or five win team, but Rex won eight. And like one of your favorite arguments for resigning Fitz, Rex was also wildly popular in the locker room. The players know best, right?

Rex did it with smoke and mirrors, and Fitzpatrick did, too. Are you familiar with the pop definition of insanity? 

[CrazyCarl40]

12 minutes ago, slats said:

See my reply to Rangers. I don't have a scouting department here at the house. You don't think guys like Clady, Carpenter, Forte, and Powell are potential Super Bowl pieces? I don't know what to tell you. You must hate these guys. You wanna split it up over two years (now $18M) or three (now $24M) look up your own contracts and see. It's a lot of money. Money I do not believe that Fitz is worth over Geno. At all. 

Unfortunately, he'll probably sign. Fortunately, that'll put me in that cool, fun, I told you so position that I see so many other people have enjoy themselves with. 

I don't hate any of those players. I just know that none of them are getting the Jets to the Super Bowl by themselves. All solid pieces, no real difference makers. And they are all already under contract. You said the Jets could add pieces next season to be more competitive. I just figured you researched that a little bit. 

[slats]

Just now, CrazyCarl40 said:

I don't hate any of those players. I just know that none of them are getting the Jets to the Super Bowl by themselves. All solid pieces, no real difference makers. And they are all already under contract. You said the Jets could add pieces next season to be more competitive. I just figured you researched that a little bit. 

Just stop. By themselves? That's obviously not what I'm saying. But the team could certainly use a couple OL starters, a starting RB, a third down back, a number of reserves. No one takes a team to the Super Bowl all by himself, except maybe a franchise QB, which Ryan Fitzpatrick clearly isn't. 

I don't need to do research to determine that Fitz' proposed contract buys multiple starting caliber players. Considering that Fitz himself is a backup caliber player, getting a few starters instead would seem to be a good deal. 

[CrazyCarl40]

9 minutes ago, slats said:

Just stop. By themselves? That's obviously not what I'm saying. But the team could certainly use a couple OL starters, a starting RB, a third down back, a number of reserves. No one takes a team to the Super Bowl all by himself, except maybe a franchise QB, which Ryan Fitzpatrick clearly isn't. 

I don't need to do research to determine that Fitz' proposed contract buys multiple starting caliber players. Considering that Fitz himself is a backup caliber player, getting a few starters instead would seem to be a good deal. 

The fact you consider Fitz a backup caliber player is laughable at best. No wonder you can't come up with long term roster additions that will better the team next season. Makes sense now in terms of your evaluation of talent. Never mind. Carry on. 

[HighPitch]

As time goes on im finding myself much more interested in starting geno and letting fitz walk. 

Had geno not had his jaw broken, we would have seen him play and perhaps progress. In a way he got cheated.  Fitz wasnt beating him out in camp so a scrub like fitz stepped into a sweet situation gave him his best year. Whos to say last years geno couldnt have had a fitz type year? 

Fast forward to now.  By all accounts,  geno has improved even more.  

Now hes got weapons. It doesnt seem logical to argue that genos track record should not allow him further opportunities when fitz,  a guy with a much much longer and crappier track record,  is revered. 

Im officially back on the geno bandwagon fellas.... Fitz isnt taking us to the playoffs and is old. Minus well give geno his final evaluation and move on.  We might be surprised. Just like itz surprised us

[slats]

1 minute ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

The fact you consider Fitz a backup caliber player is laughable at best. No wonder you can't come up with long term roster additions that will better the team next season. Makes sense now in terms of your evaluation of talent. Never mind. Carry on. 

Fitzpatrick is a free agent in late June. If he's really a starting caliber QB, he's the only one still available since after the second week of March. 

I can't name long term roster additions because I have a full time job, and I'm a full time dad, and I also have a life outside of those responsibilities. The time and resources I have available to discern the future free agent market, how those players fit the Jets, and how much I can reasonably expect them to cost against the cap are rather limited. I've clearly demonstrated that $15M buys plenty of starting and reserve talent. You holding out for names is basically a dodge. $15M buys a lot of talent. $18-24M buys even more. You understand this. Dodge away. 

[HighPitch]

6 minutes ago, slats said:

Fitzpatrick is a free agent in late June. If he's really a starting caliber QB, he's the only one still available since after the second week of March. 

I can't name long term roster additions because I have a full time job, and I'm a full time dad, and I also have a life outside of those responsibilities. The time and resources I have available to discern the future free agent market, how those players fit the Jets, and how much I can reasonably expect them to cost against the cap are rather limited. I've clearly demonstrated that $15M buys plenty of starting and reserve talent. You holding out for names is basically a dodge. $15M buys a lot of talent. $18-24M buys even more. You understand this. Dodge away. 

Yes youve made your point and a good one at that. Enough with the names

Fitz is a starting qb?  Really and yet no team in months has signed him lol.  Hard to argue that point but im sure carl qill give it a go

[joewilly12]

You know guys its been a long battle here I'm old I'm tired as longtime Jets fan who has seen them win a Super Bowl in 1969 I cant argue this sh*t anymore Fitzpatrick sucks and he's not the the answer or solution here. 

[CrazyCarl40]

9 minutes ago, slats said:

Fitzpatrick is a free agent in late June. If he's really a starting caliber QB, he's the only one still available since after the second week of March. 

I can't name long term roster additions because I have a full time job, and I'm a full time dad, and I also have a life outside of those responsibilities. The time and resources I have available to discern the future free agent market, how those players fit the Jets, and how much I can reasonably expect them to cost against the cap are rather limited. I've clearly demonstrated that $15M buys plenty of starting and reserve talent. You holding out for names is basically a dodge. $15M buys a lot of talent. $18-24M buys even more. You understand this. Dodge away. 

15 million does buy a lot of talent. It buys you one Wilkerson and a partial Revis. Oh. Wait. Let's not talk about those contracts sapping the Jets ability to sign other players. Let's focus on the guy that helped the team have it's best season in half a decade and how he wants to be paid like a normal starting QB, but he's the one holding the team back, even though he isn't ever under contract. At this point, I hope he doesn't come back and you all can enjoy another losing season. 

If Fitz isn't a starting caliber QB, please name 32 QBs that are demonstrably better, using relevant stats and information. I'm sure you don't have time for that either. 

[slats]

8 minutes ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

15 million does buy a lot of talent. It buys you one Wilkerson and a partial Revis. Oh. Wait. Let's not talk about those contracts sapping the Jets ability to sign other players. Let's focus on the guy that helped the team have it's best season in half a decade and how he wants to be paid like a normal starting QB, but he's the one holding the team back, even though he isn't ever under contract. At this point, I hope he doesn't come back and you all can enjoy another losing season. 

If Fitz isn't a starting caliber QB, please name 32 QBs that are demonstrably better, using relevant stats and information. I'm sure you don't have time for that either. 

Lol, yeah, let's compare guys like Revis and Wilkerson -who are each easily top five at their respective positions- to Ryan Fitzpatrick, who's only (weakly) arguably even a starting caliber QB. Let's completely ignore the competition he faced last year, the fact that he didn't play in bad weather until he crapped the bed in Buffalo, because, well, what? He actually started games? 

The entire league has spoken to the value of Ryan Fitzpatrick, and the silence is deafening. The NFL has named 31 QBs they prefer to start, with a few of them having competitions that don't bother to include Ryan Fitzpatrick, so I really feel zero need to make a list for you. The Browns, Broncos, and 49ers all passed on him, and no one else was expected to show interest. That's your boy's value to the league. Not as a starter. 

I hope he doesn't come back, too, but he will. And the team will still have a losing season. Signing him for a year as a starter is a complete waste. I understand the team wanting to sign him to a three year deal locking him up as a backup, though. He brings the leadership/intangibles that they'd like to rub off on the kids. That's his total value. Win/loss-wise, I really, honestly don't believe he's adds much -if anything at all- in 2016. 

[CrazyCarl40]

3 minutes ago, slats said:

Lol, yeah, let's compare guys like Revis and Wilkerson -who are each easily top five at their respective positions- to Ryan Fitzpatrick, who's only (weakly) arguably even a starting caliber QB. Let's completely ignore the competition he faced last year, the fact that he didn't play in bad weather until he crapped the bed in Buffalo, because, well, what? He actually started games? 

The entire league has spoken to the value of Ryan Fitzpatrick, and the silence is deafening. The NFL has named 31 QBs they prefer to start, with a few of them having competitions that don't bother to include Ryan Fitzpatrick, so I really feel zero need to make a list for you. The Browns, Broncos, and 49ers all passed on him, and no one else was expected to show interest. That's your boy's value to the league. Not as a starter. 

I hope he doesn't come back, too, but he will. And the team will still have a losing season. Signing him for a year as a starter is a complete waste. I understand the team wanting to sign him to a three year deal locking him up as a backup, though. He brings the leadership/intangibles that they'd like to rub off on the kids. That's his total value. Win/loss-wise, I really, honestly don't believe he's adds much -if anything at all- in 2016. 

Being named a starter doesn't make that QB better than Fitz. We obviously don't see eye to eye here and I'm tired of the same retread arguments that really don't matter because neither of us have anything to do with that decision. So let's just agree to disagree. 

[Rangers9]

2 minutes ago, slats said:

Lol, yeah, let's compare guys like Revis and Wilkerson -who are each easily top five at their respective positions- to Ryan Fitzpatrick, who's only (weakly) arguably even a starting caliber QB. Let's completely ignore the competition he faced last year, the fact that he didn't play in bad weather until he crapped the bed in Buffalo, because, well, what? He actually started games? 

The entire league has spoken to the value of Ryan Fitzpatrick, and the silence is deafening. The NFL has named 31 QBs they prefer to start, with a few of them having competitions that don't bother to include Ryan Fitzpatrick, so I really feel zero need to make a list for you. The Browns, Broncos, and 49ers all passed on him, and no one else was expected to show interest. That's your boy's value to the league. Not as a starter. 

I hope he doesn't come back, too, but he will. And the team will still have a losing season. Signing him for a year as a starter is a complete waste. I understand the team wanting to sign him to a three year deal locking him up as a backup, though. He brings the leadership/intangibles that they'd like to rub off on the kids. That's his total value. Win/loss-wise, I really, honestly don't believe he's adds much -if anything at all- in 2016. 

First of all nobody passed on him. The Broncos were interested in signing him and couldn't agree on a deal. There are no starting jobs because other starters are signed to long term deals. Let's be honest about that. And you're saying if signed he won't succeed. Well, how do you know that and why so negative about our teams chances to compete. And of course making excuses for winning ten games last year. A record by the way which got three teams into the playoffs last year. There are no guarantees on anything but he gives us our best chance to win and if you make the playoffs you can go to the SB. 

[LIJetsFan]

http://turnonthejets.com/2016/06/qb-ryan-fitzpatrick-2015-context/#more-32512

37+55=92  6+16=22  22/92=approx 24%  So per this chart, last year Fitz completed 24% of his passes that traveled 20+ yard beyond the LOS.  This is why D. Smith (only 2 drops per attached article) looked bad.  He and Fitz have incompatible skill sets.    

[slats]

5 minutes ago, Rangers9 said:

First of all nobody passed on him. The Broncos were interested in signing him and couldn't agree on a deal. There are no starting jobs because other starters are signed to long term deals. Let's be honest about that. And you're saying if signed he won't succeed. Well, how do you know that and why so negative about our teams chances to compete. And of course making excuses for winning ten games last year. A record by the way which got three teams into the playoffs last year. There are no guarantees on anything but he gives us our best chance to win and if you make the playoffs you can go to the SB. 

The entire league passed on him. Every single team in the NFL felt that either:

a.) they had a better starting QB than Ryan Fitzpatrick already, or

b.) their starting QB would be better soon enough. 

The whole league passed. 

And don't worry about my negativity. Usually, I'm one of the more optimistic fans around here, so maybe I'm completely off the mark. I'd be fine with that. Unfortunately, I understand all the breaks the Jets had last year, and I'm not convinced that they've done nearly enough to win ten games again this year. Sorry. 

Also not convinced that Fitzpatrick gives the team their best chance chance to win, and completely disagree that Fitzpatrick @ $8M/year gives the team the best chance to win over the life of that deal. 

[Rangers9]

3 minutes ago, slats said:

The entire league passed on him. Every single team in the NFL felt that either:

a.) they had a better starting QB than Ryan Fitzpatrick already, or

b.) their starting QB would be better soon enough. 

The whole league passed. 

And don't worry about my negativity. Usually, I'm one of the more optimistic fans around here, so maybe I'm completely off the mark. I'd be fine with that. Unfortunately, I understand all the breaks the Jets had last year, and I'm not convinced that they've done nearly enough to win ten games again this year. Sorry. 

Also not convinced that Fitzpatrick gives the team their best chance chance to win, and completely disagree that Fitzpatrick @ $8M/year gives the team the best chance to win over the life of that deal. 

So again what teams had openings and didn't have starters signed to long term deals? Do you expect them to cut a Qb already signed to a long term deal. 

[ljr]

15 minutes ago, slats said:

The entire league passed on him. Every single team in the NFL felt that either:

a.) they had a better starting QB than Ryan Fitzpatrick already, or

b.) their starting QB would be better soon enough. 

The whole league passed. 

And don't worry about my negativity. Usually, I'm one of the more optimistic fans around here, so maybe I'm completely off the mark. I'd be fine with that. Unfortunately, I understand all the breaks the Jets had last year, and I'm not convinced that they've done nearly enough to win ten games again this year. Sorry. 

Also not convinced that Fitzpatrick gives the team their best chance chance to win, and completely disagree that Fitzpatrick @ $8M/year gives the team the best chance to win over the life of that deal. 

Was having a 1st year GM & HC a break last year?

do you believe Fitz at QB gives us the best chance to win in 2016?

[Jetsplayer21]

47 minutes ago, Rangers9 said:

So again what teams had openings and didn't have starters signed to long term deals? Do you expect them to cut a Qb already signed to a long term deal. 

Lol we know you and a few fitz lovers believe this ludicrous theory.. But reality says much different.. Again " half the league " would love to upgrade at qb.. It's rare that a good qb makes it to Free agency.. In those rare instances a good qb would never sit in free agency long at all. Denver wanted him to compete with Sanchez, they laughed at his salary request and never bothered to counter.. That's been it.. 

[Jet Nut]

3 hours ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

15 million does buy a lot of talent. It buys you one Wilkerson and a partial Revis. Oh. Wait. Let's not talk about those contracts sapping the Jets ability to sign other players. Let's focus on the guy that helped the team have it's best season in half a decade and how he wants to be paid like a normal starting QB, but he's the one holding the team back, even though he isn't ever under contract. At this point, I hope he doesn't come back and you all can enjoy another losing season. 

If Fitz isn't a starting caliber QB, please name 32 QBs that are demonstrably better, using relevant stats and information. I'm sure you don't have time for that either. 

Best season in half a decade?  LOL short memory. 

 

[Jet Nut]

2 hours ago, Rangers9 said:

So again what teams had openings and didn't have starters signed to long term deals? Do you expect them to cut a Qb already signed to a long term deal. 

Which teams, if they could start over would sign Fitz over anyone on their roster? 

[Paradis]

All of you need to stop.... Just stop.

Literally, no one is saying anything new - and you're all beginning to sound like idiots.

Time to just wait and see.  

[CrazyCarl40]

4 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Best season in half a decade?  LOL short memory. 

 

Half a decade is 5 years:

2016: 10-6

2015: 4-12

2014: 8-8

2013: 6-10

2012: 8-8

So, no. My memory is not short but your math skills are obviously highly questionable. Do try better in the future. 

[ljr]

5 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Which teams, if they could start over would sign Fitz over anyone on their roster? 

NYJ

[Lupz27]

8 hours ago, Rangers9 said:

First of all nobody passed on him. The Broncos were interested in signing him and couldn't agree on a deal. There are no starting jobs because other starters are signed to long term deals. Let's be honest about that. And you're saying if signed he won't succeed. Well, how do you know that and why so negative about our teams chances to compete. And of course making excuses for winning ten games last year. A record by the way which got three teams into the playoffs last year. There are no guarantees on anything but he gives us our best chance to win and if you make the playoffs you can go to the SB. 

I'd bet my house that if the NFL took every QB, and released him to a pool where every team got to draft a QB from that pool that Ryan Fitzpatrick would not be picked as one of the first 32, IE teams starting QB'S, I'm not going to name the names because if your as smart as you think you are on QB'S you know them all so why waste my time.

P.S. Neither would Geno, but I'd guarantee you Geno would go much higher if we used his current contract, vs the one the Jets have on the table for Fitz.  Only the Jets are stupid enough to offer that deal.

[Jet Nut]

2 hours ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

Half a decade is 5 years:

2016: 10-6

2015: 4-12

2014: 8-8

2013: 6-10

2012: 8-8

So, no. My memory is not short but your math skills are obviously highly questionable. Do try better in the future. 

No, the idea that it was so much better than other seasons where we also didn't make the playoffs.  A season where we had to beat a below .500 team that was playing for nothing and having it work out the way it did gets you bragging about how much better it was isn't crazy, it's retarded.  

Do better.  Any fool can read the record, it's not a math skill.  Try thinking for once, make an attempt

[ljr]

49 minutes ago, Lupz27 said:

I'd bet my house that if the NFL took every QB, and released him to a pool where every team got to draft a QB from that pool that Ryan Fitzpatrick would not be picked as one of the first 32, IE teams starting QB'S, I'm not going to name the names because if your as smart as you think you are on QB'S you know them all so why waste my time.

P.S. Neither would Geno, but I'd guarantee you Geno would go much higher if we used his current contract, vs the one the Jets have on the table for Fitz.  Only the Jets are stupid enough to offer that deal.

What timeframe are we having these QB's for?

If you are guaranteeing Geno going much higher than Fitz you are the one who is high ... P.S. The Fitz deal on the table is very team friendly

[Jet Nut]

9 hours ago, Rangers9 said:

First of all nobody passed on him. The Broncos were interested in signing him and couldn't agree on a deal. There are no starting jobs because other starters are signed to long term deals. Let's be honest about that. And you're saying if signed he won't succeed. Well, how do you know that and why so negative about our teams chances to compete. And of course making excuses for winning ten games last year. A record by the way which got three teams into the playoffs last year. There are no guarantees on anything but he gives us our best chance to win and if you make the playoffs you can go to the SB. 

They passed on him.  Not one single team liked him enough to open negotiations to sign him.  

Be honest about that.  Don't know why you feel the need to get validation from another team to make a case for him being our starting QB.  

[Warfish]

12 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I really don't care what sports media and fans "universally" think.  They're "universally" wrong.........

So you know more about the cap than Macc, know more about how to build a champion than pro evaluators.  

We should really hire you to be GM, given how you know more than everyone else Sperm.

[Dcat]

5 minutes ago, Warfish said:

So you know more about the cap than Macc, know more about how to build a champion than pro evaluators.  

We should really hire you to be GM, given how you know more than everyone else Sperm.

Im sure he has some cap saavy, but the Jets should have others to help him.  What Mac has no clue about apparently is how to make sure you get comp picks after losing Snacks, Ivory and D. Davis to free agency.  He picked up some scrubs at much lower prices that canceled out some pretty high comp picks for those guys.  Jarvis Jenkins instead of a 2017 third or fourth rounder for Snacks?  Really?  Sorry.  That's not good at all.

http://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/

• New York Jets
  Qualifying UFAs Lost: 3			Qualifying UFAs Gained: 3
  Name	Rd.	Real APY	Name	Rd.	Real APY
  Damon Harrison	4	$9,000,000	Matt Forte	6	$4,000,000
  Chris Ivory	5	$6,400,000	Steve McLendon	6	$3,500,000
  Demario Davis	6	$3,900,000	Jarvis Jenkins	7	$2,250,000
  Non-Qualifying UFAs Lost			Non-Qualifying UFAs Gained
  Darrin Walls	7	$840,000
  Stevan Ridley	7	$840,000
  Antonio Allen	7	$800,000

[CrazyCarl40]

33 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

No, the idea that it was so much better than other seasons where we also didn't make the playoffs.  A season where we had to beat a below .500 team that was playing for nothing and having it work out the way it did gets you bragging about how much better it was isn't crazy, it's retarded.  

Do better.  Any fool can read the record, it's not a math skill.  Try thinking for once, make an attempt

Wow. You're pretty abrasive For a Sunday morning.

It was easily the best and most exciting season of the last five years. The four previous seasons the Jets never had a hope or a shot and most of the games they went in knowing they didn't have a chance. At least in 2015, fans could be excited knowing they'd at least be competitive each and every game. As fans, we didn't have that those four previous seasons. But you know. I definitely should do more critical thinking. Clown. 

[Rangers9]

9 hours ago, Jetsplayer21 said:

Lol we know you and a few fitz lovers believe this ludicrous theory.. But reality says much different.. Again " half the league " would love to upgrade at qb.. It's rare that a good qb makes it to Free agency.. In those rare instances a good qb would never sit in free agency long at all. Denver wanted him to compete with Sanchez, they laughed at his salary request and never bothered to counter.. That's been it.. 

All you have to do is name the teams that have openings and do not have starting Qbs on long term or rookie deals. The only ones the haters have listed are Cleve, SF and the Broncos. And that's not actually accurate. Maybe Cleveland but in March it was assumed that Fitz would re-sign here. I mean why look for negatives on one of our most popular players and give reasons for his success as ludicrous as weather. Like what did that have to do with him being pretty good last year. 

[Mike135]

29 minutes ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

Wow. You're pretty abrasive For a Sunday morning.

It was easily the best and most exciting season of the last five years. The four previous seasons the Jets never had a hope or a shot and most of the games they went in knowing they didn't have a chance. At least in 2015, fans could be excited knowing they'd at least be competitive each and every game. As fans, we didn't have that those four previous seasons. But you know. I definitely should do more critical thinking. Clown. 

I'd like to be competitive in all of 2016 too.  Won't happen with Fitz.  We don't really hit a Fitz-winnable game 'til week 8.

[PatsFanTX]

I'd like to be competitive in all of 2016 too.  Won't happen with Fitz.  We don't really hit a Fitz-winnable game 'til week 8.

0-7 is not a good start to the season.

[Mike135]

12 minutes ago, PatsFanTX said:

0-7 is not a good start to the season.

Hey, anything can happen on any given Sunday, and I'll be rooting for Fitz if he's signed.  But looking at his track record vs good teams (and Buffalo), it doesn't look promising.