Jets Passing Offense Film Review- Week 1 (Bengals)

[JetNation]

The Jets got out to an inauspicious start in their first game of the year, against the Cincinnati Bengals.  They lost a heart breaker on a last minute field goal, by former second round pick Mike Nugent.   Many fans have turned their ire towards Ryan Fitzpatrick, so let’s examine the game for the QB of the Jets. One change from last year, there is a new section deemed “Sidekick Power” to illustrate instances where the majority of the positive outcome was due to a secondary player other than the QB.

Fitzmagic:

1) 

The first play highlighted is actually a broken play.  The initial call is for a run to the right side of the line, as evidenced by the down field blocking by the WRs, but the snap is low, and it throws off the timing of the play.  Forte runs by Fitzpatrick, who is forced to improvise, and does a decent job of gaining positive yards on this play.  He makes a defender miss, and gains about 4 yards on the play.   Many times on broken plays, you will see a sack or at best an in-completion because the receivers are blocking on the play, thus not looking for a pass.

2) 

The Bengals are showing single high safety from the onset of the formation, but as they did many times during the game, the front line made various changes according to the Jets’ audibles.   At the bottom of the screen, the CB across from Brandon Marshall has lined up with outside leverage, indicating that he’s expecting help on the inside, so Fitzpatrick rightly ascertains that Marshall will be open on the medium range slant route.  The linebackers can’t close the gap backpedaling fast enough, and he steps up in the pocket to make a very nice throw.  The ball is a bit behind Marshall, but he makes the catch.  It’s a very good pre-snap read by Fitzpatrick, and a very good throw.  The other thing to notice on this play is the man going in motion, and the reaction from the Bengals.  They switched on assignments for this play, which is something the Jets fail to realize on a few plays later in the game.

3) 

 The result of the play is an incomplete pass, albeit the Bengals were called for a penalty which resulted in a first down for the Jets.  First of all, the Bengals again moved late in the play to get into their defense.  They reacted in time for multiple plays, timing them perfectly, so the Jets might have to either speed up or slow down their snap times in the future.  Jalin Marshall is lined up outside, and runs a deep in-route.  The two Jet receivers are essentially clearing the lane for the throw on the right side, and they do their job.  Fitzpatrick throws this ball right as Marshall is running by the defender.  There is a good amount of talk about NFL QBs being able to “throw receivers open” around the time of the draft.  This is a great example of this, because Fitzpatrick threw the ball where Marshall should be, assuming he’ll get open.  The defender grabs Marshall knowing the chances are better to hold the WR, rather than risking an open TD pass.

4) 

This is a prime example of the evolution of Quincy Enunwa.  Last year, Brandon Marshall was the target of such passes, but this year Enunwa scores the first TD of the season.  This is essentially a pick route by Marshall, and there is a borderline argument to be made that he made contact before the pass was thrown.  However, the penalty wasn’t called, and Fitzpatrick makes a great throw to Enunwa.   On the other side of the play, notice the man in motion, and how the Bengals CBs switched on their assignments.  The outside corner moved with the man, indicating man coverage, but they switched when they crossed another Jets WR.  The Bengals did this constantly, and the Jets never adjusted.   One of the main benefits of late movement is to have the defender off-balance at the snap, because he’s trying to keep up with the WR.  The Bengals circumvented this by switching at spots (even in man coverage) and taking away some of the benefits of late movement.

5) 

Another play, another perfectly timed late adjustment by the Bengals.  This pre-snap read starts off with a LB showing blitz, and a deep safety covering Enunwa.  This is an easy hot route for the blitz and Fitzpatrick reads it.  However, at the last second, the LB moves over to cover Enunwa, throwing off the hot route plan.  Unfazed, Enunwa runs through the bump coverage, and gets open down the middle.  The deep safety moves back, and the MLB comes out in coverage for the WR.  Fitzpatrick makes a decent throw, and Enunwa makes an excellent hands catch over the middle knowing he was going to be hit immediately.  Notice that the Bengals are only rushing four, and having everyone else fall back into coverage.  Expect to see this type of coverage often because it’s a proven tactic against Ryan Fitzpatrick.  Deep safety prevents deep passes, and the underneath LBs are trying to take away passing lanes.  The middle of the field is wide open for runs, and Matt Forte is open for a screen pass as well.  The defenses are betting they can close in on the screen pass receiver or Fitzpatrick scrambling before it’s a long gain.  The Jets need to be successful in their screen pass game, and Fitzpatrick has to run more consistently to make defenses adjust.

6) 

This is the Jets second TD of the game, and Eric Decker makes a good catch with a defender draped all over him.  This is excellent coverage by the defender and the Bengals have this play bottled up from their scheme.   This is another example of the Bengals timing their movements perfectly to the Jets snap.  Pre-snap, the Bengals show two deep safety with man coverage on the receivers.   However, right before the snap, the safety on Brandon Marshall’s side moves up towards the line, which should have meant a one on one match-up for Marshall.   Fitzpatrick has already made up his mind by then, and locks into Eric Decker.   Decker runs a good route, and Fitzpatrick makes a back shoulder throw that is caught for the TD.  This is also an excellent example of the route running from Decker, because the play calls for a back shoulder pass (especially with the safety protecting the inside route) and you can see the CB shading to the outside.  However, Decker runs an inside slant first and gets the CB to commit inside before cutting back outside.  He has now reversed positioning with the CB, and has placed himself in good position for the back shoulder pass.  Had the CB been on the outside, a back shoulder throw would have been impossible, and any throw inside would have been dangerously close to the safety.

7) 

The Bengals performed a late movement again with perfect timing.  This is just a circa-2015 throw and catch from Fitzpatrick to Marshall.  Fitzpatrick locks into Marshall from the onset, and Marshall wins the one on one match up with the CB, and it’s an easy catch.  Fitzpatrick does a good job of recognizing the one on one match up, trusting his star WR, and taking advantage of it.   Now this was the first series of the second half for the Jets, and on the previous series, they hurt the Bengals with short passes, which led to a field goal.  Notice how the Bengals adjusted by having a spy in for Forte on this play.   Forte also has to get some credit on this play for picking up the blitz, because Ryan Clady for some unbeknownst reason decided to just run away from the defender right across from him.

8)  

Ryan Fitzpatrick runs for about 9 yards of this play, showing that he’s learning from the Bengals’ scheme.  On this play, the Bengals again have a LB on Forte and drop everyone else back.   They leave the whole middle of the field open, daring Fitzpatrick to run, and he takes advantage of this.  This is a significant play because the defense is giving the Jets free yards, and they are showing they can take advantage.  If the Jets do this on a consistent basis, defenses will have to change their game plan to have  their LB stay closer to the line, which should open up passing lanes.

9) 

Late movement timed perfectly by the Bengals once more.  The Jets spread them out again, and you see the open area in the middle of the field.   Ryan Fitzpatrick steps up and delivers a great pass to Decker for a great catch.  This plays happens on a 3rd and 5, so it was a clutch throw and catch as the Jets were driving down the field to take the lead.

Sidekick Power:

1) 

Quincy Enunwa shows off his versatility with this play, with a tap pass from Fitzpatrick.  This gets counted as a pass, but this is essentially Enunwa taking a hand off and running with the ball.  This concept has grown within the spread offense lately, although it usually involves more nimble runners.  Enunwa shows off good speed and vision on this play, which goes for 9 yards.  West Virginia is famous for running this tap option play with Geno Smith and Tavon Austin in the past, so it’s good to see that Chan Gailey is incorporating some of the successful concepts from college.  During “Gruden’s QB Camp”, I believe the play was deemed “96 Wanda” where Geno Smith had the option to run, tap it to Austin, bubble screen, or pass.   The Jets kept it simple here and executed it as a tap pass all the way.

2) 

Up until Bilal Powell found his speed gear last year, this was the biggest weakness for the Jets on offense.  They could not execute a good screen pass that went for big yards.  Most successful screen passes meant it wasn’t intercepted.  Matt Forte shows off his pass catching ability, speed, and vision in the open field to get 20 plus yards on this play.  The second hero of this play is Enunwa, who goes in motion at the start of the play.  He eventually gets matched up with a safety, and notice how the safety is not completely set at the snap.  The Bengals were switching often to prevent this situation, but they didn’t have a choice in this instance.  Enunwa’s first goal is to engage the LB, but he has to prevent him from seeing the screen.  For this purpose, he runs an outside route, turning the hips of the defender.  The defender no longer can see Forte setting up for the screen, and blow it up.  By the time, the screen is set up, Enunwa engages the defender in blocking and effectively takes him out of the play until Forte runs by him (although the LB makes a good recovery and eventually helps tackle Forte), enabling the long run.

3) 

This is another screen, and another successful run.  Notice how the safety adjusted his positioning right before the snap.   Forte again does most of the work here, as he sets up perfectly for the screen and then gains positive yards as he runs to the sideline.  You have to give the DT of the Bengals credit on this tackle, as he doesn’t give up on the play and makes a shoe string tackle on Forte down the field.

Assistants Fail:

1) 

This is pretty much a team failure on this play.  Pre-snap, this is an automatic TD play, as the LB (or safety) assigned to the RB is about 5 yards away from the line of scrimmage.  The read would be to have the two outside WRs act as traffic in the middle and prevent the LB from catching up with the RB.  However, the Bengals again make a late adjustment switch, timing it perfectly.  The LB (or safety, hard to tell) switches from the RB to the WRs, and the slot CB who was covering the WR moves to the RB.  Deep in the red zone, the Bengals played zone and won.  Trevor Reilly goes in motion before the play, which causes minimal movement on the other side.  Bilal Powell also can’t break this open field tackle.  This is more of a failure on the play call than anything, because the Jets played right into what the Bengals were baiting them to do.

2) 

This play of course if infamous to anyone that watched the game.  The Jets are desperately trying to move down the field for a last second FG, and Brandon Marshall makes a terrible drop.   Marshall does a good job of finding the open spot in zone coverage, and Ryan Fitzpatrick finds the open area as well for what should have been a completion to the 50 yard line.  Fitzpatrick does throw the ball slightly behind, but any NFL WR should come up with this pass.

Bad Magic:

1) 

The first play of horrible day from Fitzpatrick is this fairly simple pass to Marshall.  The Jets have a quasi run fake here, and then Fitzpatrick locks in on Marshall and fires the ball behind him.  This is the type of play that got Mark Sanchez and Geno Smith in trouble, with a DT dropping back into coverage, to take away the slant route to Marshall.  Fitzpatrick has no reason to fire this pass early because if it’s on target, it might be an interception.  He could have easily waited for Marshall to take two more steps for an open passing lane, especially considering he had a clean pocket.  Contrary to popular belief, Fitzpatrick struggles at times because he locks into player pre-snap with pre-determined throws.  He’s not great at scanning the field, and it shows up in this instance.  This is a horrible throw to Marshall, and it’s a positive outcome that it landed in-complete.

2) 

This is another play in which Fitzpatrick is locked into one receiver, Marshall again, and fails to notice the match ups elsewhere.  Even in a zone coverage, Marshall is double covered here, as there will be an underneath LB, and a CB over the top.  The Jets send Trevor Reilly in motion to that side, but that doesn’t make any difference at all to the left side of the play.  Where it does make a difference is the safety over the top, moving more towards the left before the start of the play.  This would mean that it’s less crowded for Eric Decker, who is open for a TD pass on the inside slant route.  Fitzpatrick, however, is locked in on Marshall, and it ends up as an incomplete pass, although this is another throw that could have been intercepted.  He was one of the leaders for the most intercept-able passes (passes that likely could have been intercepted, but were not) last year, and he’s starting where he left off.

3) 

Another play, another locked in throw to Marshall.  This is a major theme with Fitzpatrick, and it’s on display again on this play.  Pre-snap, it’s man coverage on Marshall on the outside, but the Bengals are playing the run here.  Quincy Enunwa has inside release on a slant play, which should be an easy TD as he runs further into the end zone.  It’s a clean pocket, so Fitzpatrick has time for him to clear the under-neath LBs, but instead he chooses to throw it up to Marshall.  While these throws did work last year, they were more the results of great WR play.

4) 

This is another play, where Fitzpatrick misses an easy TD.  On this play, Trevor Reilly goes in motion and the Bengals barely flinch.  Against all odds, Reilly finds himself wide open for an easy TD catch, but Fitzpatrick decides to go towards Marshall coming off a screen he set for Reilly.  It would have been an OK read, had the pass not sailed over his head.  Fitzpatrick has no reason to sail this pass, as he has a clean pocket and can step into this throw.  He also has a wide open option as well that he ignores.  Fitzpatrick also has Forte as an option out of the backfield, with hope that he can break an open field tackle.  There are three legitimate options on this play, and Fitzpatrick picks one of them, but completely screws up the throw.   There is a shallow LB in his throwing lane, but Fitzpatrick has enough time to wait on Marshall clearing this lane if it was an issue.

5) 

Maybe Fitzpatrick has been hanging around Hackenberg for too long, because this is a bad short pass to the RB.  The Jets have them spread out, and once again the Bengals make a perfectly timed last minute adjustment.  This is the biggest cause of failure on this play, and another testament to the Fitzpatrick locking into receivers theory.  Pre-snap, the read is simple, there are three receivers on the right side, with three defenders.  The safety lining up over Forte is a good 10 yards away from him, at which point all they have to do is have the two WRs block their defenders and it’s open space.  However, the Bengals completely blow this up, but moving their LBs (who were showing blitz) into coverage, and the LB chases down Forte.  The pass is also bad, because Forte has to turn around to catch the pass, slowing down his momentum.  The Bengals baited Fitzpatrick into this throw, and he fell for it hook, line, and sinker.

6) 

Is this a mirror image of the last play?  The Bengals make a perfectly timed adjustment at the last moment, and they have a LB chase down the RB.  It’s the same exact read as last time, and similar result.  Infact, the Jets have the exact same route tree as the last one, just in reverse.  This indicates a pre-snap audible from Fitzpatrick, after he sees the coverage.  The Bengals were baiting him again, and he fell right into it, again.  It would behoove the Jets to call an inside slant from the RB instead of an out route, because the LB rushing over would have all his momentum heading the other way, and the middle of the field was open all day.  A couple of batted down passes, may have influenced Fitzpatrick into calling audibles away from the short middle of the field though.

7) 

On this play, Jalin Marshall goes in motion before the snap, and runs a deep crossing route across the zone.  He finds a seam in the zone, and Fitzpatrick finds him open as well.  However, this is just a horrible throw that Marshall doesn’t have a chance at catching.  The Jets get bailed out here with a penalty on the hit, but it doesn’t excuse the throw.  Fitzpatrick could have hit Marshall earlier in the route tree, but hesitated, and paid for it.  The Bengals bring an overload blitz on this play, and Forte does a good job of taking out one blitzer, but another one has a free run at Fitzpatrick.  The ball should have been thrown quicker, when Marshall is first looking for the pass.

8) 

This play shows some semblance of an adjustment.  Remember the failed passes to the RB before?  Well it’s the same exact formation, and same exact reaction from the Bengals.  However, they show their hand early on this play.  To show how much the Bengals were switching, as soon as they realize they showed their hand, they switch coverage on the RB.  Fitzpatrick points out the “Mike” LB prior to the snap, and of course he’s the one that just switched to cover the RB, while the previous man covering the RB switches to the “Mike” LB.  However, the Jets didn’t audible to a RB pass in this case, most likely learning from the baits they fell into before.  Decker is open for an easy pass, but Fitzpatrick misses the pass as he fires it low and behind the receiver.

9) 

Another bad decision by the QB on a crucial play.  The Bengals show blitz at first, but move back, eventually just rushing four.  However, Fitzpatrick seems to be locked in on Enunwa, running the crossing route on this play.  The RB is open for a pass, and the outside WR (which looks like Jalin Marshall) is also open on the out route.  This is a critical passing down, and Fitzpatrick makes the wrong decision and costs the team a first down.  This is another case of the Bengals adjusting, in this case, the LB drops back into the middle after showing blitz.  Fitzpatrick looks like he assumed a blitz and followed Enunwa to what he thought would be an empty area, but it wasn’t the case.

10)   

Now this is the desperation last drive, right after the Marshall drop.  However, this is another example of Fitzpatrick locking into a WR and not looking at other options.  On the left side of this play, he has two options open for good yardage.  Matt Forte down the sideline has a LB on him, and if he makes the catch, can easily go out of bounds as well.  Instead Fitzpatrick looked towards the middle and Decker, and then made a bad throw as well.  It”s desperation time, so there can’t be too much blame on the QB here, but he has to make better decisions than this, when there were other options open.   Even pre-snap he has to read a LB backing off Forte 10 yards away as his go to throw.  There is a chance the CB covering the WR could jump the route, but that would mean an open seam route for the WR.

11) 

The final pass of the game, and a horrible interception as the cherry on top.  This is the same exact analysis as the last time, he has a LB on Forte down the sideline, and man coverage on a WR.  Instead, Fitzpatrick is locked on Decker and makes a horrible mistake.  When Fitzpatrick throws this pass, Decker has just begun his cut, so he is trying to “throw his receiver open” but fails to account for the CB under cutting the route.  At this point, there were other options which were safer, especially considering the whole middle of the field was open and he could run for a first down and live for another down after a quick spike.  Another possibility is that Charone Peake (or at least it looks like Peake) is by his defender on the outside, with a safety over the top.  Why not just take a shot down the field with a WR against a safety instead of taking such a risk for a 15 yard gain at best?  It’s a bad decision and a horrible outcome.

Conclusion:

Ryan Fitzpatrick is not an elite QB, and I don’t think the sternest of Fitzpatrick fans would disagree with that statement.  He is an average QB that can take advantage of weak defenses because he has arguably the best pass catching options in the game.  The Bengals are not a weak defense, however, and therefore he struggled.   On too many occasions, Fitzpatrick locked into his first read and paid for it.  The Bengals had his snap count timed almost perfectly throughout the day, and they baited him into predictable audibles too many times.  This was a bad game offensively for the Jets, although they were two Nick Folk kicks away from winning this game.  Fitzpatrick needs to improve his ability to scan the field moving forward, and he needs to be willing to run more often to offset defenses that are dropping LBs into coverage more often than not.   It’s not a good start for the Jets, but hopefully, they recover against the Bills.

Fitzpatrick Grade:  C-

Forum Questions:

What grade would you give Fitzpatrick?  

 

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[FidelioJet]

C- is about right for this week.  The Bengals are a good team and he's going to struggle against good defenses.  

At this point in his career we shouldn't expect him to get better or "improve his ability to scan the field" - He's a hard working, weak armed, single read QB with strong leadership skills - that's our guy and we're going to live or die with him.

With that said, he had us in a position to win the game.

[FlaJetsFan]

Nice analysis.  Cool.  Fact remains if RF noodle arms along against Bills, putting us at 0-2, Bowles would be smart to make plans to start Petty against Chiefs. He would have little to lose, given the likely outcome of the season under Fitz.  If Petty cant handle it, reinsert Fitz, and don't even worry about hurting his pride, which is irrelevant to the business that is football, and would hardly be construed as panicking.  So let's at least give us a chance to deny teams the luxury of defending half a field of play. We have the weapons.  Let's use them, before the season is irredeemably lost, which can happen real fast in this league, as everyone here knows all too well.  Doing nothing would start to cast an increasingly looming shadow over Bowles' ability to adapt situationally.  He needs to be smart and bold here and stop the bleeding immediately, if the Jets start to hemorrhage offensively Thursday night. 

[Larz]

Where do you get those videos?

[Villain The Foe]

19 minutes ago, Larz said:

Where do you get those videos?

I would assume the all-22 is out on Gamepass now. 

[BroadwayJets]

So painfully clear he is unable to adjust after his pre-snap read.

[flgreen]

B

Fitz looked a bit rusty. his timing was off.  He also made some nice throws.  He did enough to win the game if Folk did what he is paid to do

 

 

[Villain The Foe]

I agree with your assessment. A C- is correct imo. It was below average, but not a terrible game. The Bengals are a good team and that blocked punt did hurt...but we left 14 points in the redzone. The decker Gif you made was a go-ahead TD as well as the overthrow to Marshall in the back of the endzone. 

[drdetroit]

Best receiver corps in the entire NFL

 

Forte, Powell playing well

 

OL looked good

 

20 friggin points at home

 

If that's not an obvious sign Fitz should be benched for Geno or Petty what is?

 

[Jetdawgg]

Nice read and vids. The new feature is also a great idea.

Fitz is a very limited QB. He will never lead this team to the SB. That is what the Jets should be playing for. His weak arm really hurts the Jets there is a real reason why the other teams did not sign him. I am sort of embarrassed that he held out on the Jets. That can only happen here.

There was a thread that stated something about this being a two game season. That is a reality for Fitzpatrick.

[JohnnyLV]

great analysis. C- is pretty generous on his grade, especially since some of the "reads" are just luck in that his locked on receiver happened to get open. Reality is that a decent QB would have thrown at least an additional TD, probably 2 with exactly the same play sequences Fitz had and we win the game easily. His grade is an F. Nothing above shows average,

[RoadFan]

I don't have the time to read all this today.

What I want to know is if B-Marsh looked less than 100% with his hip problem?

 

 

[Jackie Treehorn]

Thanks a million for the great analysis! 

I am wondering, and have to ask due to lack of experience watching the game, how common it is for the average NFL-QB to make these quick reads?

[Integrity28]

55 minutes ago, drdetroit said:

Best receiver corps in the entire NFL

 

Forte, Powell playing well

 

OL looked good

 

20 friggin points at home

 

If that's not an obvious sign Fitz should be benched for Geno or Petty what is?

 

The play of Geno or Petty.

 

[Rangers9]

57 minutes ago, drdetroit said:

Best receiver corps in the entire NFL

 

Forte, Powell playing well

 

OL looked good

 

20 friggin points at home

 

If that's not an obvious sign Fitz should be benched for Geno or Petty what is?

 

The very last thing on Bowles' mind is making a change at Qb. It's not happening. 

[SAR I]

2 hours ago, JetNation said:

Conclusion:

Ryan Fitzpatrick is not an elite QB, and I don’t think the sternest of Fitzpatrick fans would disagree with that statement.  He is an average QB that can take advantage of weak defenses because he has arguably the best pass catching options in the game.  The Bengals are not a weak defense, however, and therefore he struggled.   On too many occasions, Fitzpatrick locked into his first read and paid for it.  The Bengals had his snap count timed almost perfectly throughout the day, and they baited him into predictable audibles too many times.  This was a bad game offensively for the Jets, although they were two Nick Folk kicks away from winning this game.  Fitzpatrick needs to improve his ability to scan the field moving forward, and he needs to be willing to run more often to offset defenses that are dropping LBs into coverage more often than not.   It’s not a good start for the Jets, but hopefully, they recover against the Bills.

Fitzpatrick Grade:  C-

Forum Questions:

What grade would you give Fitzpatrick?  

 

Just fantastic, really learned a lot, thank you for taking the time to do this.  Wow.

The only thing I would say is that it isn't fair to judge Fitzpatrick on an unweighted scale.  If Tom Brady or Ben Roethlisberger had the exact same game,  a C- would be an appropriate grade because they are capable of A+ games all the time.  The game we just saw Fitzpatrick have is about at the top of his capabilities based on his age, his history, and the level of competition.

So I'd give Ryan Fitzpatrick a B+ or an A- for this game.  Some clutch 3rd down conversions, 2 pretty TD passes, the only INT in desperation time with seconds left and no timeouts, he handed his defense a lead with 2 minutes left at the 16 yard line, he made the miracle throw to 15 but Marshall dropped it.  It's one of the better games he's had as a New York Jet and frankly it's all he's really capable of delivering.   We didn't sign Aaron Rodgers.

SAR I

[cant wait]

Thank you for taking he time to put this together. sadly those of us who know better saw this coming, that last year was a mirage driven by a cupcake schedule against bottom feeders. On the flip side the gailey fitz system is the kind of offense you'd expect a rookie QB to run, so when the team decides to move on after this year there should be a minimal learning curve

[Maxman]

3 hours ago, Larz said:

Where do you get those videos?

He creates them himself.

[Villain The Foe]

2 hours ago, Jackie Treehorn said:

Thanks a million for the great analysis! 

I am wondering, and have to ask due to lack of experience watching the game, how common it is for the average NFL-QB to make these quick reads?

It depends on the offensive scheme the average NFL QB is in. There's alot of pre-snap reads in our offense as well as stretching of the defense. 

[Barkus]

awesome post, thx a lot! Fitz left a lot of plays on the field yesterday. A 54% completion pct is horrible, esp when you consider a number of those completions were screens or shovel passes. We need better than that for sure. 

[slats]

5 hours ago, flgreen said:

B

Fitz looked a bit rusty. his timing was off.  He also made some nice throws.  He did enough to win the game if Folk did what he is paid to do

 

 

I'll go back to school if you'll be my professor. 

Fitz completed 54% of his passes, getting credit for two of those completions on forward handoffs to Quincy Enunwa. Lol, B.  

[JustInFudge]

4 hours ago, SAR I said:

Just fantastic, really learned a lot, thank you for taking the time to do this.  Wow.

The only thing I would say is that it isn't fair to judge Fitzpatrick on an unweighted scale.  If Tom Brady or Ben Roethlisberger had the exact same game,  a C- would be an appropriate grade because they are capable of A+ games all the time.  The game we just saw Fitzpatrick have is about at the top of his capabilities based on his age, his history, and the level of competition.

So I'd give Ryan Fitzpatrick a B+ or an A- for this game.  Some clutch 3rd down conversions, 2 pretty TD passes, the only INT in desperation time with seconds left and no timeouts, he handed his defense a lead with 2 minutes left at the 16 yard line, he made the miracle throw to 15 but Marshall dropped it.  It's one of the better games he's had as a New York Jet and frankly it's all he's really capable of delivering.   We didn't sign Aaron Rodgers.

SAR I

Grading on a curve?  In Football?  

You keep participation trophies on a mantle, dont you? 

 

[Mike135]

Great breakdown as always.  Any Jet fan who is more than a casual fan should really spend at least a few minutes reviewing these breakdowns.  It's very easy to miss things during the game when friends/family/beers are involved.  Not to mention TV coverage doesn't give a good view of the field.

Heck, even coaches many times need to review the tape before giving their opinions.

[Mike135]

Come to think of it, can someone email this link to Bowles?

[CrazyCarl40]

47 isn't Trevor Reilly. It's Kellen Davis. Trevor Reilly isn't a tight end or on the team anymore. He still may actually be a better tight end than Davis though.

[win4ever]

7 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

C- is about right for this week.  The Bengals are a good team and he's going to struggle against good defenses.  

At this point in his career we shouldn't expect him to get better or "improve his ability to scan the field" - He's a hard working, weak armed, single read QB with strong leadership skills - that's our guy and we're going to live or die with him.

With that said, he had us in a position to win the game.

Yeah, the Bengals are a very good team with a good defense.  They confused the heck out of the Jets with late movements and adjustments, but it's also striking to see how little the Jets adjusted, and how predictable they were with the timing of snaps.  

There is a big misconception that Fitzpatrick is some genius out on the field, reading defenses, but he really isn't.  He just looks better because we had Mark Sanchez and Geno Smith all these years, so Fitz looks better in comparison.   On most plays, he is locked in on the WR pre-snap and has his mind made up.  This might be because he's rusty, because going back to last year, he was better at this aspect of the game.  He was downright atrocious at times with how he stared down WRs in this game.  

6 hours ago, FlaJetsFan said:

Nice analysis.  Cool.  Fact remains if RF noodle arms along against Bills, putting us at 0-2, Bowles would be smart to make plans to start Petty against Chiefs. He would have little to lose, given the likely outcome of the season under Fitz.  If Petty cant handle it, reinsert Fitz, and don't even worry about hurting his pride, which is irrelevant to the business that is football, and would hardly be construed as panicking.  So let's at least give us a chance to deny teams the luxury of defending half a field of play. We have the weapons.  Let's use them, before the season is irredeemably lost, which can happen real fast in this league, as everyone here knows all too well.  Doing nothing would start to cast an increasingly looming shadow over Bowles' ability to adapt situationally.  He needs to be smart and bold here and stop the bleeding immediately, if the Jets start to hemorrhage offensively Thursday night. 

Thanks.  I don't see Bowles making the move until Week 4 at best, because I'm not sure he is a quick trigger guy.  

Instead of Petty, I would put in Geno and see where he goes with the team.  I still think he's a better fit for this offense than Fitzpatrick in the new system, but they aren't buying it.  I'm not sure what we're going to accomplish with Fitzpatrick because he's limited physically, and he has mental issues in terms of staring down his receivers.  

 

6 hours ago, Larz said:

Where do you get those videos?

They are from NFL Game Pass, coaches film.  I make GIFs from them.  

6 hours ago, Villain The Foe said:

I would assume the all-22 is out on Gamepass now. 

Yup, although for some weird reason, the Jets one was delayed yesterday.  I was going to write this yesterday evening, but every other early game from Sunday had the film up, but the Jets didn't upload them until late at night.  

6 hours ago, BroadwayJets said:

So painfully clear he is unable to adjust after his pre-snap read.

Yeah, on most of these passes, his mind is already made up from the snap.  

This was what was so refreshing about Hackenberg, because he actually scanned the field.  It's the biggest hope for the Jets in the future, because with him, atleast the issue seems to be physical and fixable.  I almost did a film review on mechanics for him in the last pre-season games, but there was no coaches tape with endzone angles to show his lack of mechanics.  However, if people want to re-watch his preseason games for mechanics, watch for his lower half.  There are a few videos on YouTube that show good mechanics.  This is a good one from Chad Pennington.  You can compare this to Hackenberg, and how his legs fly open.  

6 hours ago, flgreen said:

B

Fitz looked a bit rusty. his timing was off.  He also made some nice throws.  He did enough to win the game if Folk did what he is paid to do

 

 

I think the Jets team put them in position to win this game, but Fitz really didn't do enough to actually win the game.  The running game was good, and the defense and special teams provided small fields for the offense and they still stalled.  They even got timely penalties to help them out, but they couldn't punch it in.  

 

6 hours ago, Villain The Foe said:

I agree with your assessment. A C- is correct imo. It was below average, but not a terrible game. The Bengals are a good team and that blocked punt did hurt...but we left 14 points in the redzone. The decker Gif you made was a go-ahead TD as well as the overthrow to Marshall in the back of the endzone. 

Thanks, yeah, I couldn't really go above a C-, since it wasn't a total failure.  However, it was frustrating to see so many other options free and he just didn't take advantage of them.  

6 hours ago, drdetroit said:

Best receiver corps in the entire NFL

 

Forte, Powell playing well

 

OL looked good

 

20 friggin points at home

 

If that's not an obvious sign Fitz should be benched for Geno or Petty what is?

 

I argued all off-season that the upgrade from Geno to Fitz just isn't worth the money and roster spot.  I think Geno is a better fit for this offense because a mobile QB forces LBs to stay maybe a step or two up towards the line.  And second, there is no threat of a deep pass here.  I think the biggest example of this is the last play.  The Jets need a deep miracle at this point, and they are essentially playing man coverage on Peake down the sideline.  They don't respect Fitz's deep passing ability at all, since any good armed QB takes a shot deep there and tries for the long TD.  

6 hours ago, Jetdawgg said:

Nice read and vids. The new feature is also a great idea.

Fitz is a very limited QB. He will never lead this team to the SB. That is what the Jets should be playing for. His weak arm really hurts the Jets there is a real reason why the other teams did not sign him. I am sort of embarrassed that he held out on the Jets. That can only happen here.

There was a thread that stated something about this being a two game season. That is a reality for Fitzpatrick.

Thanks.  Yeah, I figured if I was pointing out instances where they were failing, should point it out when they make the majority of the play.  

He is not a good fit for the Jets because he actually limits the spread system.  I wish Geno progressed better because I think he would do better.  I didn't get the signing at the time, especially considering how Fitz did against good defenses last year.   I don't think it's a two game season, I say four games before he's taken out.  

One theory why the veteran WRs like him seems to be that he has pre-determined throws to them.  It's almost like a friend playing pick up, that says, next shot is coming to you no matter what.  This allows you to make a play, alas you love that guy.  

5 hours ago, johnnysd said:

great analysis. C- is pretty generous on his grade, especially since some of the "reads" are just luck in that his locked on receiver happened to get open. Reality is that a decent QB would have thrown at least an additional TD, probably 2 with exactly the same play sequences Fitz had and we win the game easily. His grade is an F. Nothing above shows average,

Thanks.  

I couldn't go worse than C because he does make some throws, and he did have a huge drop by Marshall at the end.  

The talent in terms of pass catching at this point is ridiculous.  They have two top WRs, a top tier RB out of backfield to catch passes, an emerging Enunwa, and Powell as a backup.  This offense should be one of the leagues best, but it looks like it will be average.

 

5 hours ago, RoadFan said:

I don't have the time to read all this today.

What I want to know is if B-Marsh looked less than 100% with his hip problem?

 

 

He didn't look particularly bad by any means, besides the drop.  

5 hours ago, Jackie Treehorn said:

Thanks a million for the great analysis! 

I am wondering, and have to ask due to lack of experience watching the game, how common it is for the average NFL-QB to make these quick reads?

Thanks.  

This is a hard one to answer, because there are different set of skills.  Top tier guys such as Brady, Rodgers, Brees, etc are very good at making these reads.  Then there are guys that aren't that great, but have very good arm talent to make up for it, such as Stafford or Flacco.  

In this case, Fitz is an anomaly, which is why he's been a journeyman in his career.  He's not good at making post-snap adjustments nor does he have the arm talent.  He requires elite talent (in Houston, had Hopkins, Andre Johnson, and a very good pass catching RB in Foster) or a system tailored to him (Chan Gailey).  Fitzpatrick falls in the mediocre ability to adjust, mediocre arm talent to somehow equal millions of dollars.  It's one of the biggest reasons why other teams didn't go out of their way to sign him this off-season because they know the book on him.

5 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

The play of Geno or Petty.

 

I think Geno would do better honestly than Fitz at this point. 

Prior to the Fitz signing, I was looking at some Geno Smith games to see how he was doing, and they way he was handled was horrible.  In a game against Baltimore, in the entire first half, I counted one person actually open on a pass play.  His stats from that game are horrible, but I'm not sure how many QBs would survive in that environment because they had no talent whatsoever.  

5 hours ago, SAR I said:

Just fantastic, really learned a lot, thank you for taking the time to do this.  Wow.

The only thing I would say is that it isn't fair to judge Fitzpatrick on an unweighted scale.  If Tom Brady or Ben Roethlisberger had the exact same game,  a C- would be an appropriate grade because they are capable of A+ games all the time.  The game we just saw Fitzpatrick have is about at the top of his capabilities based on his age, his history, and the level of competition.

So I'd give Ryan Fitzpatrick a B+ or an A- for this game.  Some clutch 3rd down conversions, 2 pretty TD passes, the only INT in desperation time with seconds left and no timeouts, he handed his defense a lead with 2 minutes left at the 16 yard line, he made the miracle throw to 15 but Marshall dropped it.  It's one of the better games he's had as a New York Jet and frankly it's all he's really capable of delivering.   We didn't sign Aaron Rodgers.

SAR I

Thanks.  

I can't give Fitz a higher grade because mainly I think it has to be judged on the play overall than his ceiling.  If he is terrible, but that's his ceiling, then the grade should just reflect his terribleness.  Players like Rodgers or Brady get better grades because they perform better.  

He had two passes other than the interception that should or could have easily intercepted.  There is one pass to Marshall that was tipped, and the CB (or safety) let it go right through his hands.  The ball went straight to his hands, so I have no idea how he missed it.  The second one is the missed pass to Marshall, where the defender dives for it.   Those were two occasions where he got lucky to walk away with an in-completion. 

4 hours ago, cant wait said:

Thank you for taking he time to put this together. sadly those of us who know better saw this coming, that last year was a mirage driven by a cupcake schedule against bottom feeders. On the flip side the gailey fitz system is the kind of offense you'd expect a rookie QB to run, so when the team decides to move on after this year there should be a minimal learning curve

Thanks.  

My biggest hope is that they fix Hackenberg's physical issues.  He does a very good job of scanning the field, and he was calling audibles in the pre-season game, so it shouldn't be too hard for him.  He needs to fix his throwing mechanics, but I do think he has the potential to be very good if they could fix those mistakes.  

2 hours ago, Maxman said:

He creates them himself.

Yup, like the Amish of Gif making, lol.  

2 hours ago, Villain The Foe said:

It depends on the offensive scheme the average NFL QB is in. There's alot of pre-snap reads in our offense as well as stretching of the defense. 

Yeah, there is a good amount of pre-snap reads in the offense, along with secondary and tertiary options to pass as well.  Fitz did a better job last year finding those options, but he struggled this year.  Unfortunately, with the defenses we are going to face, probably not getting any better.  

1 hour ago, Barkus said:

awesome post, thx a lot! Fitz left a lot of plays on the field yesterday. A 54% completion pct is horrible, esp when you consider a number of those completions were screens or shovel passes. We need better than that for sure. 

Thanks.  

Yeah, a bunch of those completions are tap passes or screen passes.  Downfield passing in this game was horrible.  

1 hour ago, slats said:

I'll go back to school if you'll be my professor. 

Fitz completed 54% of his passes, getting credit for two of those completions on forward handoffs to Quincy Enunwa. Lol, B.  

Yeah, there is almost no way he gets anywhere near a B for this one.  They planned this game for short passes to help him out, but he couldn't hit much down the field and paid for it.  

[win4ever]

23 minutes ago, Mike135 said:

Great breakdown as always.  Any Jet fan who is more than a casual fan should really spend at least a few minutes reviewing these breakdowns.  It's very easy to miss things during the game when friends/family/beers are involved.  Not to mention TV coverage doesn't give a good view of the field.

Heck, even coaches many times need to review the tape before giving their opinions.

Thanks.  

I think eventually. this is going to be more prevalent on websites in the future.  Last year, there were about 1 or 2 sites that did them, so I thought it had untapped potential.  Now I see them at about 4 or 5 sites already, so I think more and more people are going to get into it.  It's a great thing because it really enhances the viewpoint for fans because they get to see the whole field and the chess match.  

Need to come up with something else by next year probably to stay relevant, lol.  

9 minutes ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

47 isn't Trevor Reilly. It's Kellen Davis. Trevor Reilly isn't a tight end or on the team anymore. He still may actually be a better tight end than Davis though.

Oh damn.  My bad.  Yeah, I saw 47 out there and for some reason, assumed it was Reilly.  Thanks for pointing it out, I'll edit it now.  

[Jackie Treehorn]

I don't have Game Pass so I can't go back to review all plays. But I remember a play, probably second quarter but I might be wrong there, when Fitz threw a pass straight at a MLB(?) who somehow let it slip between his hands. That throw was for me the most baffling of the day. He must have seen a ghost on that play, there was no Jet even close to that pass. I can't find it among the clips above though. 

This is just an observation, no intention to rip on Fitzpatrick. 

[win4ever]

6 hours ago, Jackie Treehorn said:

I don't have Game Pass so I can't go back to review all plays. But I remember a play, probably second quarter but I might be wrong there, when Fitz threw a pass straight at a MLB(?) who somehow let it slip between his hands. That throw was for me the most baffling of the day. He must have seen a ghost on that play, there was no Jet even close to that pass. I can't find it among the clips above though. 

This is just an observation, no intention to rip on Fitzpatrick. 

I believe the play you are talking about is the pass to Marshall running a deep in route.  I didn't include it because, the pass was tipped by Margus Hunt, who is basically in the NFL because of his size at 6'8".  I remember looking at him when he was in the draft a few years ago, and his main claim to fame was the ability to tip passes.  He's was the one that blocked the kick on Nick Folk as well.  I didn't really know who to blame on that one, just seemed like a freaky play.  Hunt is huge, and the tipped pass led to the errant throw.  It was a bad read because there were better options on the play, but Marshall did have a small window.  I didn't know where to go with the breakdown because the tipped pass changed everything.  

[chirorob]

Every week, this is my favorite post of the week.  You do an unbelievable job.  All great.

[win4ever]

5 minutes ago, chirorob said:

Every week, this is my favorite post of the week.  You do an unbelievable job.  All great.

Thanks, I do appreciate it.  

[Maxman]

These are amazing, thanks Alvin.

[Jetsbb]

Trevor Reilly?

[win4ever]

4 hours ago, Maxman said:

These are amazing, thanks Alvin.

Thanks.  

2 hours ago, Jetsbb said:

Trevor Reilly?

It was an error, corrected it after CrazyCarl pointed it out.