Are the Jets better off sucking this year and drafting a QB in the first?

[bostonmajet]

Out of the 33 QBs drafter over the 12 years, 9 are already out of the NFL, 16 are still starters (15 if you don’t count Bridgewater), but 2 of those are on their 2nd or 3rd team (Alex Smith and Sam Bradford). If you discount the 4 current starters from 2014 and 2015 (as they are very new), that leaves 12 starters (10 on the teams that drafted them).

Maybe 8 of drafted QBs are considered above average while only 6 are considered top 15; additionally, only 4 have received rings.

More importantly, for the teams that drafted them, only 4 have rings; the more surprising team is the Titans with 3 first round QB selections (Young, Locker, Mariota) and the team still stinks.

In fact Carolina (with superman) is the most recent team to find any real success (if you don’t count the colts getting close with luck - but getting blown out of the championship game) with there #1 pick.

In summary, drafting a QB in the 1st is a total crap shoot; It normally (and recently) takes 4 to 5 years for the team to be successful, and it sometimes take 6-8 years for the QB to mature and often doesn’t find success until his second team.

For those who want the Jets to give up the store to move up (or suck enough) and select a QB in 1st, you are likely looking at many years of unhappiness. Of course, you can go the way of the Broncos and GB and draft in the 20s, sit him and hope for the best.

FYI, teams seemed to have as much success recently drafting in the second (Dalton, Kapernick, Osweller, Geno Garappalo, Carr) all 6 started (for a variety of reasons) with 3 current starters - 2 of which are considered quality QBs and the 3rd is still young.

[Jet Nut]

No.  

[Jetsfan80]

Evidently the OP thinks its a bad idea.  To those who don't, sure, let's tell Nick Mangold, Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, Matt Forte, and Ryan Fitzpatrick all to suck so the franchise can get rid of all of them and start from scratch.

 

[Jet Nut]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Evidently the OP thinks its a bad idea.  To those who don't, sure, let's tell Nick Mangold, Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, Matt Forte, and Ryan Fitzpatrick all to suck so the franchise can get rid of all of them and start from scratch.

 

I'm sure they'd be happy to give up wins for their replacements to enjoy down the road.

Maybe

[ASH1962]

So we are supposed to throw away Petty and Hack and this season with a pretty good ball club underneath us?

[De-Jet-Erate/Duane]

I'm fairly certain the the Jets front office believes the Qb of the future is already on the roster. That doesn't mean they wont draft another one but not in the first round.

[Warfish]

2 minutes ago, ASH1962 said:

So we are supposed to throw away Petty and Hack and this season with a pretty good ball club underneath us?

Threads like this really should just be ignored.

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Threads like this really should just be ignored.

Based on what the OP stated, the thread title should have really been:  "The case AGAINST sucking for a draft pick".

[ASH1962]

2 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Threads like this really should just be ignored.

yah

[Beerfish]

Other than Hackenburg stinking as a Qb prospect the worse thing about his selection is that even if we could draft a Q high next year we will not, lots of 'valid' excsues will be made as to why we can't trade up or stay where we are and take a good QB prospect early.

[HessStation]

Just reading the topic...probably 

[Paradis]

26 minutes ago, ASH1962 said:

So we are supposed to throw away Petty and Hack and this season with a pretty good ball club underneath us?

You don't plan your future around people who haven't proven their worth.

[bostonmajet]

Here is the info I used to generate my summary:

2004 Eli Manning (1) - 2 rings against the Pats, Philip Rivers (4) - good, but team peaked but is down now, Roethlisberger (11) 2 rings and 1 loss perennial contenders, JP Lossman - out of NFL

2005 Alex Smith (1) - on second team, KC perennial contenders no ring, Aaron Rodgers (24) sat behind Farve 1 ring, Jason Campbell (25) out of NFL

2006 Vince Young (3) - no rings - out of NFL, Matt Leonard (10) bust - out of NFL, Jay Cutler (11) up and down career on 2nd team no rings

2007 JaMarcus Russell (1) bust out of NFL, Brady Quinn (22) bust out of NFL

2008 Matt Ryan (3)  okay career quality starter, Joe Flacco (18) better career; good team over years 1 ring

2009 Matthew Stafford (1) perennial starter, Mark Sanchez (5) - 4th team, now backup, Josh Freeman (17) - 3 teams, out for a year, out of NFL

2010 Sam Bradford (1), on 3rd team, injury history (earned 2nd team a 1st on trade), Tim Tebow (25) - out of NFL

2011 Cam Newton (1) 1 SB appearance, quality starter, Jake Locker (8) retired from NFL, Blain Gabbert (10) on 2nd team; currently starting, okay career, Christian Ponder (12) on second team backup on SF

2012 Andrew Luck (1) perennial starter; team sucks, RGIII (2) on second team, backup?, Ryann Tannehill (8) perennial starter; team sucks, Brandon Weedon (22) on 3rd team, now backup

2013 EJ Manuel (16) backup on team that signed him, team sucks

2014 Blake Bortels (3) still starting; team sucks; too early to tell, Jonny Manzeil (22) out of NFL, Teddy Bridgewater (32) was starter, showing promise out on injury

2015 Jamis Winston (1), Marcus Mariota (2)  — too early to tell - here for completeness

It appears that drafting in the first (early or late) is a huge roll of the dice. It appears the quality FOs are more likely to succeed than necessarily drafting in the first round. And, if drafting in the 1st round pays off, it normally takes 5-6 years. Because of these 2 points, it doesn't make sense to hold a FO accountable for a 1st rounder not working out or taking a while to produce - even though it often means the demise of the FO.

Here is hoping whether it be Hack, Petty, or someone else, that the Jets find their franchise QB sometime soon.

[Paradis]

45 minutes ago, bostonmajet said:

Out of the 33 QBs drafter over the 12 years, 9 are already out of the NFL, 16 are still starters (15 if you don’t count Bridgewater), but 2 of those are on their 2nd or 3rd team (Alex Smith and Sam Bradford). If you discount the 4 current starters from 2014 and 2015 (as they are very new), that leaves 12 starters (10 on the teams that drafted them).

Maybe 8 of drafted QBs are considered above average while only 6 are considered top 15; additionally, only 4 have received rings.

More importantly, for the teams that drafted them, only 4 have rings; the more surprising team is the Titans with 3 first round QB selections (Young, Locker, Mariota) and the team still stinks.

In fact Carolina (with superman) is the most recent team to find any real success (if you don’t count the colts getting close with luck - but getting blown out of the championship game) with there #1 pick.

In summary, drafting a QB in the 1st is a total crap shoot; It normally (and recently) takes 4 to 5 years for the team to be successful, and it sometimes take 6-8 years for the QB to mature and often doesn’t find success until his second team.

For those who want the Jets to give up the store to move up (or suck enough) and select a QB in 1st, you are likely looking at many years of unhappiness. Of course, you can go the way of the Broncos and GB and draft in the 20s, sit him and hope for the best.

FYI, teams seemed to have as much success recently drafting in the second (Dalton, Kapernick, Osweller, Geno Garappalo, Carr) all 6 started (for a variety of reasons) with 3 current starters - 2 of which are considered quality QBs and the 3rd is still young.

Any team making a concerted effort to torpedo their season in hopes of landing "the pick" ought to clean house as far as management are concerned.

Beyond that - I'm not sure what you're trying to say. Franchise QBs are found in round 1. More so than any other round by a statistical landslide. On top of the that, the 1st QB taken is also statistically a million times more like to be "the guy". 

[JustInFudge]

51 minutes ago, bostonmajet said:

Out of the 33 QBs drafter over the 12 years, 9 are already out of the NFL, 16 are still starters (15 if you don’t count Bridgewater), but 2 of those are on their 2nd or 3rd team (Alex Smith and Sam Bradford). If you discount the 4 current starters from 2014 and 2015 (as they are very new), that leaves 12 starters (10 on the teams that drafted them).

Maybe 8 of drafted QBs are considered above average while only 6 are considered top 15; additionally, only 4 have received rings.

More importantly, for the teams that drafted them, only 4 have rings; the more surprising team is the Titans with 3 first round QB selections (Young, Locker, Mariota) and the team still stinks.

In fact Carolina (with superman) is the most recent team to find any real success (if you don’t count the colts getting close with luck - but getting blown out of the championship game) with there #1 pick.

In summary, drafting a QB in the 1st is a total crap shoot; It normally (and recently) takes 4 to 5 years for the team to be successful, and it sometimes take 6-8 years for the QB to mature and often doesn’t find success until his second team.

For those who want the Jets to give up the store to move up (or suck enough) and select a QB in 1st, you are likely looking at many years of unhappiness. Of course, you can go the way of the Broncos and GB and draft in the 20s, sit him and hope for the best.

FYI, teams seemed to have as much success recently drafting in the second (Dalton, Kapernick, Osweller, Geno Garappalo, Carr) all 6 started (for a variety of reasons) with 3 current starters - 2 of which are considered quality QBs and the 3rd is still young.

It's actually the only round with any consistency in terms of drafting a QB.

[JustInFudge]

2 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Any team making a concerted effort to torpedo their season in hopes of landing "the pick" ought to clean house as far as management are concerned.

Beyond that - I'm not sure what you're trying to say. Franchise QBs are found in round 1. More so than any other round by a statistical landslide. On top of the that, the 1st QB taken is also statistically a million times more like to be "the guy". 

This.  

[Integrity28]

No. Play to win. If you think your "guy" is there before your pick, give up what you must to get him. 

It's never worth tanking in NFL. Nothing about top of draft is guaranteed the way it normally is in NBA.

[F.Chowds]

No

[UnitedWhofans]

Also depends on the QBs available. Watson would seem to be the top QB prospect. Don't really know any others other than Kizer out of ND.

[SenorGato]

First I want to know at least the name of the college QB they should tank the season for. Who is this lucky duck?

[bostonmajet]

First of all, I agree, you never tank a season, ever. The second part this shows that show some patience; when it does pay off, it often takes 5-6 years. Don't label the guy a bust after 2 preseason games and then move on.

As far as first picks are concerned, Eli (1) has the same number of rings as Rapesburger (11) in the same draft. Rodgers (24) has more rings than Alex Smith (1) in the same draft and Smith is on a different team now. Tannehill (8) has done more for the Dolphins that RGIII (2) and now RG3 is on a different team.

So, if you are going to draft a QB in the 1st, the QB at #1 isn't always the best. So it probably isn't worth trading the store to get the #1 pick (as you will need the picks to build a team). And, if you do draft a QB in the 1st be prepared to wait at least 5-6 years. So, probably best to not throw away a QB picked in the 4th or 2nd after a year or 2.

Just thought this was a more interesting subject than 'deflate-gate - not so final last word'.

[shawn306]

1 hour ago, bostonmajet said:

Here is the info I used to generate my summary:

2004 Eli Manning (1) - 2 rings against the Pats, Philip Rivers (4) - good, but team peaked but is down now, Roethlisberger (11) 2 rings and 1 loss perennial contenders, JP Lossman - out of NFL

2005 Alex Smith (1) - on second team, KC perennial contenders no ring, Aaron Rodgers (24) sat behind Farve 1 ring, Jason Campbell (25) out of NFL

2006 Vince Young (3) - no rings - out of NFL, Matt Leonard (10) bust - out of NFL, Jay Cutler (11) up and down career on 2nd team no rings

2007 JaMarcus Russell (1) bust out of NFL, Brady Quinn (22) bust out of NFL

2008 Matt Ryan (3)  okay career quality starter, Joe Flacco (18) better career; good team over years 1 ring

2009 Matthew Stafford (1) perennial starter, Mark Sanchez (5) - 4th team, now backup, Josh Freeman (17) - 3 teams, out for a year, out of NFL

2010 Sam Bradford (1), on 3rd team, injury history (earned 2nd team a 1st on trade), Tim Tebow (25) - out of NFL

2011 Cam Newton (1) 1 SB appearance, quality starter, Jake Locker (8) retired from NFL, Blain Gabbert (10) on 2nd team; currently starting, okay career, Christian Ponder (12) on second team backup on SF

2012 Andrew Luck (1) perennial starter; team sucks, RGIII (2) on second team, backup?, Ryann Tannehill (8) perennial starter; team sucks, Brandon Weedon (22) on 3rd team, now backup

2013 EJ Manuel (16) backup on team that signed him, team sucks

2014 Blake Bortels (3) still starting; team sucks; too early to tell, Jonny Manzeil (22) out of NFL, Teddy Bridgewater (32) was starter, showing promise out on injury

2015 Jamis Winston (1), Marcus Mariota (2)  — too early to tell - here for completeness

It appears that drafting in the first (early or late) is a huge roll of the dice. It appears the quality FOs are more likely to succeed than necessarily drafting in the first round. And, if drafting in the 1st round pays off, it normally takes 5-6 years. Because of these 2 points, it doesn't make sense to hold a FO accountable for a 1st rounder not working out or taking a while to produce - even though it often means the demise of the FO.

Here is hoping whether it be Hack, Petty, or someone else, that the Jets find their franchise QB sometime soon.

There is nobody right now at the QB position that is worth tanking for. So no

[ScarletKnight89]

lol Of course not. They have a very talented team with a competent QB.

The only argument is that if they fall out of it at some point in the season should they give Petty a look.

[kevinc855]

Go away. Stop with these insane posts. So dumb....

[drdetroit]

Wrong season to tank.  We actually have a shot at the super bowl

 

Next season tank for Lamar Jackson

 

[drdetroit]

2 hours ago, Beerfish said:

Other than Hackenburg stinking as a Qb prospect the worse thing about his selection is that even if we could draft a Q high next year we will not, lots of 'valid' excsues will be made as to why we can't trade up or stay where we are and take a good QB prospect early.

Not necessarily 

 

We could trade or cut either petty or Hack.  Fitz and Geno will both be FA(Fitz if we cut him)

 

[NYs Stepchild]

Is the next Peyton Manning coming out next year? 

I'd like to take a tackle next year myself. Another late 1st through 4th round QB will probably be taken as our search continues. On the list of top QBs there are more non top 5 than there are top 5.

I like this systematic approach that Mac is taking without setting back the franchise. We're bound to hit on one of these eventually. Hopefully it's Petty, but keep it up MAc.

 

[NYs Stepchild]

2 hours ago, Beerfish said:

Other than Hackenburg stinking as a Qb prospect the worse thing about his selection is that even if we could draft a Q high next year we will not, lots of 'valid' excsues will be made as to why we can't trade up or stay where we are and take a good QB prospect early.

Yes that's why we didn't take a QB in 2015 because we had Geno, and why we didn't take one last year because we had Geno and Petty. Then we had to choose which ones to cut because we would never keep 4 QBs on the roster. That would be silly. 

[Beerfish]

8 minutes ago, drdetroit said:

Not necessarily 

 

We could trade or cut either petty or Hack.  Fitz and Geno will both be FA(Fitz if we cut him)

 

I don;t doubt that we may draft a QB next year but we won't be pursuing the top rated ones.  I just don't see it happening, we used a 2nd rounder on a guy this year and a 4th the year before.  Whoever the top rarted couple of QB's are we will not be going after them.

[Beerfish]

Just now, NYs Stepchild said:

Yes that's why we didn't take a QB in 2015 because we had Geno, and why we didn't take one last year because we had Geno and Petty. Then we had to choose which ones to cut because we would never keep 4 QBs on the roster. That would be silly. 

The definitive word in my post was early, hey we have the mantra of taking a Qb every year, geno is a goner so we could take a QB, we just won't be going after the top rated ones ala Mariota, Winston - Goff, Wentz. 

[LIJetsFan]

Just now, Beerfish said:

I don;t doubt that we may draft a QB next year but we won't be pursuing the top rated ones.  I just don't see it happening, we used a 2nd rounder on a guy this year and a 4th the year before.  Whoever the top rarted couple of QB's are we will not be going after them.

lol fish, in the 3rd or 4th post in this thread you opined that threads like this should be ignored.  I agreed but jumped to the last post so it's marked as read, and here you are!  Still posting.  

[NYs Stepchild]

3 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

The definitive word in my post was early, hey we have the mantra of taking a Qb every year, geno is a goner so we could take a QB, we just won't be going after the top rated ones ala Mariota, Winston - Goff, Wentz. 

Good thing most of the top 10 QBs are guys drafted outside of the top half of round 1 and they don't break the bank. 

Give me your top 5. I'll bet only 1 was a number 1 pick, 2 of them were later rounds, and 2 were in the bottom half of round one. 

The best rookie so far this year is not a first rounder, and I think Carr will be better than Winston. 

[Beerfish]

19 minutes ago, LIJetsFan said:

lol fish, in the 3rd or 4th post in this thread you opined that threads like this should be ignored.  I agreed but jumped to the last post so it's marked as read, and here you are!  Still posting.  

Wrong fish dude.    Warfish is the one that said this should be ignored.  I guess all Fish look the same to you, you racist!

[UnitedWhofans]

Top 4 QBs next year:

DeShaun Watson  (probably will go 1 or 2 in the draft)

DeShone Kizer ( Only has started 2 years at ND including this year. Not a bad QB)

Brad Kaaya ( Seems like the prototypical pocket QB. Took 20 sacks last year.)

Chad Kelly ( Maybe solid, plays against SEC defense and does okay)

[Jet Nut]

26 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

I don;t doubt that we may draft a QB next year but we won't be pursuing the top rated ones.  I just don't see it happening, we used a 2nd rounder on a guy this year and a 4th the year before.  Whoever the top rarted couple of QB's are we will not be going after them.

Because we aren't a bad enough team to earn a top pick.  It's not happening, was never happening.  Whining that we could be in a position to take the top QB but won't because of the last two drafts is moot.  We're not picking in the top of he draft because the team is better than you realize.  

In case you haven't noticed, all the past picks that you've hated along with the players signed have made this team pretty damn good.