Draft strategy / SI prospect report

[thshadow]

So my extensive draft research  has consisted of reading one entire article:

http://www.si.com/2017-nfl-draft-position-rankings

What do you think of the following plan for the first 3 rounds:

1. BPA - which will obviously be tremendously debated - but at this point I think I'd be happy with Peppers or Cook (maybe Fournette)
2. Guard
3. Center

It doesn't seem like there'll be a worth-it-at-6 tackle, so focus on the rest of the line in later rounds.

I really don't see a round-1 QB in the picture, given that there aren't any homerun prospects, and anyone available at 6 is someone passed up by Cleveland / Chi / SF.  And it seems unlikely that there's anyone worth trading up for (even if we could).

[southparkcpa]

Trade away the 2nd round pick for 2,  3rd round picks. We have wasted our 2nd for what??  40 years now? 

[DMan77]

5 minutes ago, thshadow said:

So my extensive draft research  has consisted of reading one entire article:

http://www.si.com/2017-nfl-draft-position-rankings

What do you think of the following plan for the first 3 rounds:

1. BPA - which will obviously be tremendously debated - but at this point I think I'd be happy with Peppers or Cook (maybe Fournette)
2. Guard
3. Center

It doesn't seem like there'll be a worth-it-at-6 tackle, so focus on the rest of the line in later rounds.

I really don't see a round-1 QB in the picture, given that there aren't any homerun prospects, and anyone available at 6 is someone passed up by Cleveland / Chi / SF.  And it seems unlikely that there's anyone worth trading up for (even if we could).

It's all a matter of opinion of course, but I would be great with Cam Robinson at 6th... He's right around the 10th pick or so on most mocks but I expect him to move up more.

I don't know if he'll be the best player available for the Jets at 6th, but if they do take him I don't think it will be that much of a reach. 

I like him a lot for this team. Shell at RT, him at LT, another year for our guards who have been decent... That's a nice line all the sudden. 

[ASH1962]

I really believe we need speed, talent and a player who defenses have to plan around. If it is a RB so be it, grab him. If Mike Williams some how gets past the Titans at 5, grab him.

I just hope we do not reach for a CB or S at #6 unless we are virtually certain they are Revis or Ed Reed reincarnated respectively. A top S can change a defense around, just look how bad the Jet defense because after Jim Leonard left years ago. You say Jim Leonard? But go back and look how great a S he was for us. He made us a top defense under wrecks.

[Skeptable]

I think we should trade cleveland for their 12th and 33rd pick and give up our 6th pick, this way we can get a Cook (RB) and Desmond King.... or something like that.

[LionelRichie]

24 minutes ago, thshadow said:

So my extensive draft research  has consisted of reading one entire article:

http://www.si.com/2017-nfl-draft-position-rankings

What do you think of the following plan for the first 3 rounds:

1. BPA - which will obviously be tremendously debated - but at this point I think I'd be happy with Peppers or Cook (maybe Fournette)
2. Guard
3. Center

It doesn't seem like there'll be a worth-it-at-6 tackle, so focus on the rest of the line in later rounds.

I really don't see a round-1 QB in the picture, given that there aren't any homerun prospects, and anyone available at 6 is someone passed up by Cleveland / Chi / SF.  And it seems unlikely that there's anyone worth trading up for (even if we could).

out of curiosity, why go BPA in rd 1 and then reach for specific positions in later rds?   either go BPA or pick for need and god help us all if get another DL in rd 1.   

[bitonti]

19 minutes ago, DMan77 said:

It's all a matter of opinion of course, but I would be great with Cam Robinson at 6th...

 

he's not a left tackle and there probably won't be a tackle taken within the first 15 picks.  

[Beerfish]

Trade right out of the 1st round, get some lower picks and another 1st round pick for next year.

[nycdan]

Move down or trade the 2nd round pick for a high round pick next year.  Stockpile some chips so we at least have a chance to move up and grab a QB at the top if there's one worth taking.  There doesn't seem to be a 'must-have' player in the top 6 this year so punt and load up for next year.  Yeah...hard sell for the fans who want immediate gratification but you have to play the cards you're dealt and if that's the best chance to have a playoff team in 2018 and beyond, then go for it.

[Larz]

as long as football is important to them and they were a captain, its all good 

[PepPep]

Trade down...get an extra 2nd rounder, maybe a 3rd as well. 

Rd. 1: J.Tabor-CB, Florida

Rd. 2: Z.Cunningham- ILB, Vandy

Rd. 2 via trade: R.Ramczyk-OT, Wisconsin

Rd. 3 via trade: D.Foreman- RB, Texas

Rd. 3: Leggett- TE, Clemson 

Rd. 5: C.Phillips- OLB/DE (Pass Rusher), Illinois

Rd. 6 and 7 take flyers, preferable on O-line, OG/C types, as you can still get developmental quality at those positions late in the draft. 

Cheers. I have a more in depth analysis of the draft in the 'draft' section on this forum. Obviously, who we select will depend on who we target in FA, who we release and who we re-sign.  

As you can see, 'BPA' in Rd. 1 happens to fill a massive need. No OG or C in rounds 2 and 3 but the Jets get a top tier OT, a much needed TE, their future MLB and replacement for Harris, and a power RB that they wanted in Robinson who could eventually replace Forte and compliment Powell's run style.  

[PepPep]

43 minutes ago, bitonti said:

he's not a left tackle and there probably won't be a tackle taken within the first 15 picks.  

Many believe Cam Robinson can play LT at the NFL level but will most likely start as a RT. He is the top OT prospect for a reason. Not a lot of scouts believe he is purely an NFL RT. He has the tools to be a very good NFL LT. This draft is not very deep at OT and there is no sure-fire 'stud' like, for example, Tunsil last year. But McGlinchey, Robinson, and Ramczyk and even, to a degree, Julie'n Davenport (more of a raw prospect) can all develop into very good NFL LTs, some will even get plugged in right away and start. I think its very likely an OT is taken in the top 15, either Robinson or McGlinchey. Ramczyk, although up there with these two, will definitely slide b/c of his injury and resulting surgery, keeping him out of the combine and pro day. Davenport will probably go in the second round. But he is a raw prospect, so it will have to be a team that's willing to be patient with him.    

[DMan77]

43 minutes ago, bitonti said:

he's not a left tackle and there probably won't be a tackle taken within the first 15 picks.  

He is a LT right now... Do you mean you don't think he has what it takes long term? 

http://www.al.com/alabamafootball/index.ssf/2016/12/alabama_lt_cam_robinson_talks.html

[DMan77]

1 minute ago, PepPep said:

Many believe Cam Robinson can play LT at the NFL level but will most likely start as a RT. He is the top OT prospect for a reason. Not a lot of scouts believe he is purely an NFL RT. He has the tools to be a very good NFL LT. This draft is not very deep at OT and there is no sure-fire 'stud' like, for example, Tunsil last year. But McGlinchey, Robinson, and Ramczyk and even, to a degree, Julie'n Davenport (more of a raw prospect) can all develop into very good NFL LTs, some will even get plugged in right away and start.   

I think he can play a good LT in the NFL. Maybe a year or development or so, but I think he can play there.

And again this is all opinion and I base it only on what I think and what I see, but I really feel like a strong OL next year helps improve the team more than a CB, more than a LB, more than a RB.

I think we can play around with the secondary and find RBs and LB depth later on... But continuing with a revolving door at the tackle position will doom this team and whoever they try to put under center next year. 

The OL would be my first choice to fix, and I do think Robinson could play a big part in that. 

[Mike135]

Damn, a good pick and not a single QB or olineman worthy of a top 10 pick?  Sucks.  Screw the NCAA.

Guess try to trade back.  Unless of course that RB is a Zeke-level talent.  Then grab him and stack the oline after that via the draft and FA.

[Savage69]

1 hour ago, southparkcpa said:

Trade away the 2nd round pick for 2,  3rd round picks. We have wasted our 2nd for what??  40 years now? 

It's amazing how bad our 2nd rd picks have been if one was trying to get bad picks on purpose you couldn't have done worse.. Other then Davis Harris who was decent the only other 2nd rd picks that stood out was Gastineau and Walker..And Dennis Byrd was good but he was gone too soon..

[TuscanyTile2]

1 hour ago, Beerfish said:

Trade right out of the 1st round, get some lower picks and another 1st round pick for next year.

Would love for this to be the approach.

[TuscanyTile2]

54 minutes ago, nycdan said:

Move down or trade the 2nd round pick for a high round pick next year.  Stockpile some chips so we at least have a chance to move up and grab a QB at the top if there's one worth taking.  There doesn't seem to be a 'must-have' player in the top 6 this year so punt and load up for next year.  Yeah...hard sell for the fans who want immediate gratification but you have to play the cards you're dealt and if that's the best chance to have a playoff team in 2018 and beyond, then go for it.

I think the only issue is that if there's no "must have" player then who is going to trade up and pay a king's ransom?

[Jetscode1]

The best part for Jets fans has started.

[PepPep]

2 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I think the only issue is that if there's no "must have" player then who is going to trade up and pay a king's ransom?

The hope is that the QB desperate top 5 teams (or at least SOME of them) will not value a QB that high. This should result in one of the top QB prospects falling to the Jets at #6 (if you can call that 'falling'). If there is a top QB prospect up for grabs, there WILL be a team willing to trade for him if they like him. The Jets could very well end up with a choice- take said QB themselves, or trade down. And it doesn't have to be a 'king's ransom'- it depends on how far down the trading partner is drafting. 

For example, the Browns need a QB. They have the #1 overall pick and the #10 overall pick. They also have two 2nd rounders. The Browns will most likely not pass up #1 overall prospect Garrett for a QB. But they still need a QB and may be willing to trade up from 10 to 6 if a QB they like is still on the board. If they DON'T, they risk missing out on said QB with the Jets possibly taking him or offering him up to a different trade partner. The Browns happen to also have the ammo, with two 2nd round picks. 

This would be an ideal scenario for the Jets. They may not get a kings ransom, but they still pick pretty high (10th overall) and they get an extra early second rounder out of it as well. Its a win-win. Jets get a much needed extra draft pick and they don't drop too far in the first round. Browns get the top prospect (Garrett) and still get their QB (via trade up). 

[thshadow]

Much as we all want them to trade down (which I think most of us want to happen every year) - the chances of it happening seem close to nil.

[thshadow]

1 hour ago, LionelRichie said:

out of curiosity, why go BPA in rd 1 and then reach for specific positions in later rds?   either go BPA or pick for need and god help us all if get another DL in rd 1.   

I think as you go later in the draft, you shift from BPA more towards need.  Also, in later rounds, BPA is not as clear cut.

You could argue that this is "BPA, but break approximate ties based on need".  And as you get later, even round 2, there are lots more approximate ties.

[PepPep]

Just now, thshadow said:

Much as we all want them to trade down (which I think most of us want to happen every year) - the chances of it happening seem close to nil.

What do you base that on? Jets history? I'm curious.

Macc seems like a wheeler and dealer. The type of guy who is shrewd and understands the value of draft picks. If there is an offer, why wouldn't he trade down? He inquired about moving UP last year, both for a QB (early on) and for Tunsil (as he started to slide in the draft).  

[ScarletKnight89]

We have to rebuild the O-Line.

I'd also love if the Jets tried to move up and get Myles Garrett. There's our pass rusher for the next 10 years.

[PepPep]

2 minutes ago, thshadow said:

I think as you go later in the draft, you shift from BPA more towards need.  Also, in later rounds, BPA is not as clear cut.

You could argue that this is "BPA, but break approximate ties based on need".  And as you get later, even round 2, there are lots more approximate ties.

No matter what GMs say, you NEVER simply draft BPA. That's just not how it works. Yes, you could lean towards BPA, or you can have that 'philosophy'. But just like a GM who drafts according to 'need' won't pass on a clearly better prospect that fills no need. A GM who drafts BPA, won't take a QB if you already have 3 stud QBs on the roster, regardless of whether or not he is the top player on the board. You take everything into account. Which is why drafting is hard. There's no straightforward way to do it. And it almost never plays out the way you planned it. lol. 

The way I look at it- you look at your top talent group, then you look at position (or need) within that top talent group, then you look at injuries/intangibles/fit/character, etc. Then you look at your options (trade down?). Then you make a decision and roll the dice.   

[varjet]

47 minutes ago, DMan77 said:

I think he can play a good LT in the NFL. Maybe a year or development or so, but I think he can play there.

And again this is all opinion and I base it only on what I think and what I see, but I really feel like a strong OL next year helps improve the team more than a CB, more than a LB, more than a RB.

I think we can play around with the secondary and find RBs and LB depth later on... But continuing with a revolving door at the tackle position will doom this team and whoever they try to put under center next year. 

The OL would be my first choice to fix, and I do think Robinson could play a big part in that. 

Ereck Flowers was a college LT I believe who was thought to be a stretch for LT in the NFL.  That was proven to be correct.

The Jets need an LT desperately, but it is most important that that 6th pick be a potential All Pro at some position.  The Williams pick was the right one, but it required them off loading one of the others and saving the second contract/increasing salary.   Macc and Woody blew the opportunity to do that.

So if Mac picks a Cook, Fournette, Tim Williams, Peppers, Adams, or someone else, and they turn out to be great NFL players, he is a hero.

If he reaches for Cam Robinson and he turns out like Flowers, even though LT is a huge hole, he will be pilloried.

I support trying to make Clady and/or Whitworth work at LT on a hold-the-fort affordable basis.

[Augustiniak]

8 minutes ago, varjet said:

Ereck Flowers was a college LT I believe who was thought to be a stretch for LT in the NFL.  That was proven to be correct.

The Jets need an LT desperately, but it is most important that that 6th pick be a potential All Pro at some position.  The Williams pick was the right one, but it required them off loading one of the others and saving the second contract/increasing salary.   Macc and Woody blew the opportunity to do that.

So if Mac picks a Cook, Fournette, Tim Williams, Peppers, Adams, or someone else, and they turn out to be great NFL players, he is a hero.

If he reaches for Cam Robinson and he turns out like Flowers, even though LT is a huge hole, he will be pilloried.

I support trying to make Clady and/or Whitworth work at LT on a hold-the-fort affordable basis.

i wouldn't be surprised if they threw a lot of money at a LT in Fa, resigned winters, and then drafted fournette.  they obviously have to make the offense competitive and until the find a qb it makes sense to beef up the running game.  

[Ex-Rex]

2 hours ago, DMan77 said:

It's all a matter of opinion of course, but I would be great with Cam Robinson at 6th... He's right around the 10th pick or so on most mocks but I expect him to move up more.

I don't know if he'll be the best player available for the Jets at 6th, but if they do take him I don't think it will be that much of a reach. 

I like him a lot for this team. Shell at RT, him at LT, another year for our guards who have been decent... That's a nice line all the sudden. 

If Peppers gone take Robinson and make the young QB's very happy. I would be as well. 

[Augustiniak]

Just now, Ex-Rex said:

If Peppers gone take Robinson and make the young QB's very happy. I would be as well. 

i disagree, he's not worth taking that high.  

[Ex-Rex]

Just now, Augustiniak said:

i disagree, he's not worth taking that high.  

In McShay's mock he had him ranked ninth, so not that much of a reach. Robinson that is. Peppers is a top five guy and will probably be gone before Jets pick.

[slats]

14 minutes ago, PepPep said:

No matter what GMs say, you NEVER simply draft BPA. That's just not how it works. Yes, you could lean towards BPA, or you can have that 'philosophy'. But just like a GM who drafts according to 'need' won't pass on a clearly better prospect that fills no need. A GM who drafts BPA, won't take a QB if you already have 3 stud QBs on the roster, regardless of whether or not he is the top player on the board. You take everything into account. Which is why drafting is hard. There's no straightforward way to do it. And it almost never plays out the way you planned it. lol. 

The way I look at it- you look at your top talent group, then you look at position (or need) within that top talent group, then you look at injuries/intangibles/fit/character, etc. Then you look at your options (trade down?). Then you make a decision and roll the dice.   

 

What position would you avoid as the BAP if you're drafting for the Jets? DT, maybe? What else? The one thing the Jets have in abundance is needs. 

[Augustiniak]

Just now, Ex-Rex said:

In McShay's mock he had him ranked ninth, so not that much of a reach. Robinson that is. Peppers is a top five guy and will probably be gone before Jets pick.

i don't want peppers either.  the jets need a true cb who can cover and there are a few of them rated high. 

robinson is overrated, he will fall in overall rankings, he's got the pedigree and there aren't other top tackles.

unfortunately, the jets are probably looking at defense again unless mccags is willing to go with a guy like fournette.  but if they get a good cb finally i'm on board with that.

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, slats said:

What position would you avoid as the BAP if you're drafting for the Jets? DT, maybe? What else? The one thing the Jets have in abundance is needs. 

probably, maybe LB too.  the offensive line will hopefully be addressed in FA to some degree, and then maybe the jets believe in one of the qbs, maybe.   but fournette seems like the real deal and would help out whoever the qb is.

[varjet]

I would cut as many veterans as you can and sign an LT (reach for one-like Whitworth or Kalil) and a CB, like Gilmore.

Then they can draft the player most likely to be a star.  Peppers could be a career killer-his game may not necessarily translate to the NFL.  But an Adams, Tim Williams or star RB could work at 6.

Pryor may not get re-signed.

[Jet Life]

Fournette, Cook would be great. Tim Williams also would be a great pick