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Blaming Mac for the Hack Pick is dumb.

Lil Woody

By Lil Woody
in NY Jets Forum

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Lil Woody

Lil Woody

Posted
Posted

It's like blaming whoever the hell took Geno for taking him. The New York Jets don't have a QB. They haven't had a real "prospect" since Sanchez.  So when a Geno falls to round 2 or a Hack is available in rd 2....you roll the damn dice. And anyone who watches college football will tell you that the guys they thought were sure fire NFL starters are dead wrong more often then they are not. Of course the flip side of that is any idiot can predict someone will not work out. Odds are always in their favor there. And that's the rub....QB scouting isn't a science. It's a position in college that is so reliant on the talent and scheme around them that being able to separate the next Arron Rodgers from the next Aaron Murray isn't as simple as people make it out to be. It's almost done entirely on gut instincts after looking at accuracy and throwing mechanics and arm strength. You can't get in these kids heads with 2 or 3 or 4 interviews and you can't measure their heart with any metric. They may dazzle you on the white board but then you could just as easily end up with Brandon Weeden instead of Andrew Luck. The position is reliant on intangibles more than any other. So if you want to nitpick about a selection, fine, you are no different from every other internet expert. I read that 2nd round QBs have about a 25-30% chance of being a successful starter on some basic analytics I read a while back breaking down success rates by position/round.  We know the odds. We still have to take the shot. If my GM wasn't actively looking at all scenarios to land a QB, I'd be way more pissed than if he missed on a bunch of them in a row. So no I don't want Macc's head on a pike for selecting Hack. I liked the pick in the 2nd round. Other teams had him slotted ahead of our 3rd.  You can debate all you want about Hack as a player, Franklin's failures to accommodate his offense to fit his QB,the state of the PSU OL, whatever...Most QBs take years to develop. 3-5 is my min/max. I won't be shocked to see Hack revert to form and I won't be shocked to see him fail. I'd expect them to take a shot on Kizer or Mahomes if they are hanging around in the 2nd round. And if they do, I'd hope that they put him on the Hack redshirt plan too. Developmental QBs need that time to adjust.  Just don't carry 4 QBs and ignore them for an entire season. That's what this QB crop is - developmental. All of em. And if we can somehow land a blue chip prospect in next years draft...all the better. We'll have 2 red chip prospects to trade away in Hack/Kizer or Hack/Mahomes assuming we can get Hack to play this year and showcase his ability and put a few great outings on tape. (hard fought losses of course).  I don't expect it will happen, as too many teams are desperate for QBs that they will likely reach for these guys in rd 1 or jump us to get them in rd 2.....which is fine by me...just saying IF they are there, I'd expect the Jets to try to get one. Assuming/hoping we don't take one at 6.

Here is that article I mentioned. It's worth a read for discussion points anyway.

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

The premise is they looked at the draft history and put the litmus test of success for a player as the player being a starter for more years than not (+.500) over their career.

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

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Rangers9

Rangers9

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Posted

What we heard was that Hack was Mac's guy.  Plus you can say he dropped and was a good value in the 2nd round. Same as Geno was. Geno even more so because he was previously considered a potential top ten pick earlier in his final year in college. Hack wasn't expected to go in the 1st round. 

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Gas2No99

Gas2No99

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7 minutes ago, UnitedWhofans said:

No it isn't. He drafted him too high. Plain and simple

Just read this excerpt from an Arz paper delving more into Ariens comments, which are in another thread started by some Schlitz, and that ACCORDING to HIM, a QB has to be properly selected in EVERY draft but NEVER reach ABOVE what you have him grade at:

“Every year you would like to draft a quarterback,” Arians said. “We’ve had two with the name on the card ready to roll, and they’ve gone like a pick or three picks ahead of us the last two years.

“You’ve got them set on your board where you’d like to take that quarterback and if he falls to you, take him, but don’t reach. If you’ve got one in the fourth round, don’t take him in the third round, cause now you’re screwing up your board, and you’re probably putting him in a position he doesn’t belong.”

 

 

So be true to your board with selecting a QB and keep taking one every year. The fact he advocates to take a QB every year, and that's from a "QB Whisperer" (not my words), indicates that it truly is a luck of the draw when picking QBs in the draft and GROOMING is inherent of the position which is IMPOSSIBLE under the current CBA.

Arians thinks Kizer is the only QB who can start right away in the NFL as a rookie. What type of offense did Notre Dame run?

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Gas2No99

Gas2No99

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Posted

He's 1st round talent, but what makes him drop is the enigma that is his game. He can LIGHT IT UP one game/series and then just be TRASH the next. Of the limited games I saw, he was a gamer (Pinstripe Bowl was NUTS!) and he passes the eyeball test for coaches and the NY media's adulation for the "Beautiful and Young Jets QB" who makes the ladies swoooooooon (Namath, O'Brien, Vinny, Sanchez, Geno:lol:).

 

 

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Dunnie

Dunnie

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Posted

i agree w the OP sort of ... it's like blaming someone for your next coin toss ...

 

the guy has zero TDs , zero INTs, zero Pass Attempts, zero Fumbles, zero Sacks taken, zero incompletions, zero completions, zero ....

 

judging him at this point is ludicrous, egregious, salacious and outrageous

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

 

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Villain The Foe

Villain The Foe

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Lil Woody said:

It's like blaming whoever the hell took Geno for taking him. The New York Jets don't have a QB. They haven't had a real "prospect" since Sanchez.  So when a Geno falls to round 2 or a Hack is available in rd 2....you roll the damn dice.

???????????????

Geno Smith was projected to be a 1st round pick that year. There were some beat writers that wrote for the Kansas City Chiefs that were explaining why the Chiefs should take Geno with the 1st overall pick in the 2013 draft. I dont remember anyone writing about taking Hack in the 1st round, let alone the 1st pick in the draft (Could have happened, but it wasnt at all common like with Smith). With that said, when Geno was taken in the 2nd round it was considered as tremendous value given that no one saw the Jets passing on him twice in the 1st round as well as the Bills drafting EJ before Geno. Many people looked at the Jets risk of passing on Geno twice and still getting their man in the 2nd round gave the Jets the title of having the best 2nd round that year. 

Hackenberg wasnt considered a 1st round pick, he wasnt considered a 2nd round pick, he wasnt considered the 4th best QB in the class (being the 4th QB taken in the draft). None of that occurred. When the Jets drafted Hack no one looked at that as a tremendous value pick. Everyone, including Jets fans considered that a massive reach at best and a poor selection at worse. No one thought that Hack was a 1st round pick that surprisingly got passed on in the 1st round with guys like Goff/Wentz oddly being drafted before him. Macc rolled the dice alright, but that situation was not similar to Geno Smith. 

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hokiejetfan92

hokiejetfan92

Posted
Posted

Haha so I get your premise for the article, but you took the stance a little too strong. No matter how much you like Macc, he definitely deserves blame for the pick, and the credit if Hackenberg turns into a great quarterback.

However, you are correct about people who dislike Maccagnan are not looking at the big picture when saying Macc is an idiot and should be fired for the Hackenberg pick. Picking a QB is hard, and not an exact science. There was plenty of red flags about the pick, but you can find numerous articles saying Hack could be a late 1st round pick or early 2nd the months coming up to the draft. When you look at the Jets as a whole with where the cap situation and roster direction started and where it is now, I would say the Jets are in more of a position to win in the future than post Idzik/Ryan.

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sciond

sciond

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Posted

some of us need to get out more....

seriously everyone knew he was boom or bust when we the Jets drafted Hack. It is still too early to tell what he will become and a lot depends on coaching.

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Jet Blast

Jet Blast

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Posted

It's really quite simple:

Whether the Jets roll the dice or make a well researched and thought out pick doesn't matter when every pick is ultimately Mac's choice.

Therefore, he is responsible.

<end thread>

NOTE: Personally, I think it's too soon to use the word "blame". Maybe it was a terrible pick. Maybe it wasn't. I think we need to revisit that subject in a year or three.

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LIJetsFan

LIJetsFan

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Posted
40 minutes ago, hokiejetfan92 said:

Haha so I get your premise for the article, but you took the stance a little too strong. No matter how much you like Macc, he definitely deserves blame for the pick, and the credit if Hackenberg turns into a great quarterback.

However, you are correct about people who dislike Maccagnan are not looking at the big picture when saying Macc is an idiot and should be fired for the Hackenberg pick. Picking a QB is hard, and not an exact science. There was plenty of red flags about the pick, but you can find numerous articles saying Hack could be a late 1st round pick or early 2nd the months coming up to the draft. When you look at the Jets as a whole with where the cap situation and roster direction started and where it is now, I would say the Jets are in more of a position to win in the future than post Idzik/Ryan.

Wait, what?  This team is a dumpster fire atm.  

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thadude

thadude

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Posted
35 minutes ago, sciond said:

some of us need to get out more....

seriously everyone knew he was boom or bust when we the Jets drafted Hack. It is still too early to tell what he will become and a lot depends on coaching.

In a way I guess you can't blame Mac for taking the brain fart Hackentard:

 

Before the 2016 draft a lot of the people who know everything in the media and I assume the less bright people in our FO were high on Paxton Lynch.  Mac did one of the few smart things he ever did and passed on that scrub but then came the backlash "we have no qb, Fitz is unsigned and not the future anyway"

 

So Mac panicked and reached like crazy for a bad Qb he knew he probably could have had in the 5th round

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HessStation

HessStation

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Posted
10 minutes ago, thadude said:

In a way I guess you can't blame Mac for taking the brain fart Hackentard:

 

Before the 2016 draft a lot of the people who know everything in the media and I assume the less bright people in our FO were high on Paxton Lynch.  Mac did one of the few smart things he ever did and passed on that scrub but then came the backlash "we have no qb, Fitz is unsigned and not the future anyway"

 

So Mac panicked and reached like crazy for a bad Qb he knew he probably could have had in the 5th round

Are you just playing the odds that Hack will most likely suck, given the percentages? Bc I don't know how anyone could possibly be as confident as you, that he's going to autosuck. He's basically a supreme talent with the size, arm, work ethic you want. Are you saying it's impossible for a young QB to improve his accuracy? I'm not super confident he's going to be good. But man, give the freaking kid a chance first. He was most likely going in third round if the Jets didn't take him.

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dbatesman

dbatesman

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14 minutes ago, HessStation said:

Are you just playing the odds that Hack will most likely suck, given the percentages? Bc I don't know how anyone could possibly be as confident as you, that he's going to autosuck. 

I'm twice as confident as he is.

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