The Most Insightful things I have read and heard about the 2018 QB Class are These:

[oc_jet]

There were two extremely insightful posts recently, by HMHertz and Gangrene. Props for posting.

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/4/1/17185862/nfl-draft-qb-ball-placement-analysis

• Clean = basically the QB got his feet set and made a throw with his normal mechanics
• Move = the QB threw it on the move
• Tight Window = the defense was tight enough that the QB had to adjust the ball-placement to get it around/through the defense.

The main takeaways for me:

• Holy Lauletta (though he has by far the least amount of film compared to the others)
• Mayfield and Rosen are also very good, as expected
• Based on these numbers, Lamar Jackson is one of the most accurate QBs in the draft but REALLY struggles on those screen passes/passes to the flats.
• Rudolph is terribly average.

And the Dan Orlovsky/ Peter King podcast:

https://dfkfj8j276wwv.cloudfront.net/episodes/57ff7f93-1714-4ba6-a485-7d9761fb9b6c/ce6d056e00b3d022ca8ad0b0c6abacfebc455927501bfca2307eeb90dd241c07fb09434ecac27e98e27df0e31ebac4eab9170139033a98dc0cde69727b3f0070/2018 04 04 MMQB with Peter King.mp3

If you listened closely to Orlovsky's detailed view and look at the metrics of what this chart reveals, The Jets should want no part of Josh Allen. Yes, Allen is also very smart and has a cannon for an arm, but he doesnt have the ability to think beyond what is patently obvious and see many alternatives on the moving chess board of football. In other words, the ability for instantaneous scenario projection and strategic adjustment. His numbers bear that out to me. Conversely, Mayfield, Darnold and Rosen appear to possess that quality. One thing with Rosen, however, we better have a solid offensive line, because he breaks down when on the move. Also, Jackson is no slouch. He just requires a different level of commitment, which I dont think the Jets are willing to make. If we could somehow come away with one of these three and Lauletta, the Jets would be set for the next 5-7 years. 

[jetstream23]

1. Darnold

2A. Rosen

2B. Mayfield

 

That has got to be the Jets draft board.  I will be pretty disappointed if we take Allen over any of those guys.  I like his upside but this franchise is not in position to take a risk here.

[oc_jet]

2 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

1. Darnold

2A. Rosen

2B. Mayfield

 

That has got to be the Jets draft board.  I will be pretty disappointed if we take Allen over any of those guys.  I like his upside but this franchise is not in position to take a risk here.

I agree. We need someone "street" smart, who thinks quick on his feet as our QB. We dont need a project. We need someone with the "IT" quality.

[Lupz27]

49 minutes ago, oc_jet said:

There were two extremely insightful posts recently, by HMHertz and Gangrene. Props for posting.

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/4/1/17185862/nfl-draft-qb-ball-placement-analysis

• Clean = basically the QB got his feet set and made a throw with his normal mechanics
• Move = the QB threw it on the move
• Tight Window = the defense was tight enough that the QB had to adjust the ball-placement to get it around/through the defense.

The main takeaways for me:

• Holy Lauletta (though he has by far the least amount of film compared to the others)
• Mayfield and Rosen are also very good, as expected
• Based on these numbers, Lamar Jackson is one of the most accurate QBs in the draft but REALLY struggles on those screen passes/passes to the flats.
• Rudolph is terribly average.

And the Dan Orlovsky/ Peter King podcast:

https://dfkfj8j276wwv.cloudfront.net/episodes/57ff7f93-1714-4ba6-a485-7d9761fb9b6c/ce6d056e00b3d022ca8ad0b0c6abacfebc455927501bfca2307eeb90dd241c07fb09434ecac27e98e27df0e31ebac4eab9170139033a98dc0cde69727b3f0070/2018 04 04 MMQB with Peter King.mp3

If you listened closely to Orlovsky's detailed view and look at the metrics of what this chart reveals, The Jets should want no part of Josh Allen. Yes, Allen is also very smart and has a cannon for an arm, but he doesnt have the ability to think beyond what is patently obvious and see many alternatives on the moving chess board of football. In other words, the ability for instantaneous scenario projection and strategic adjustment. His numbers bear that out to me. Conversely, Mayfield, Darnold and Rosen appear to possess that quality. One thing with Rosen, however, we better have a solid offensive line, because he breaks down when on the move. Also, Jackson is no slouch. He just requires a different level of commitment, which I dont think the Jets are willing to make. If we could somehow come away with one of these three and Lauletta, the Jets would be set for the next 5-7 years. 

None of these stats matter without including throws when the QB can’t throw with proper mechanics because the pocket is collapsed on him, and he has no way to set his feet properly, I don’t even know if they have this stat tracked, you have to watch the film to see this yourself, and for a guy like Jackson it’s less important because he will bail instead of throw, so you would have to measure success rate when bailing, and see if he bails to soon, and when bailing does he keep eyes down field, bail to a safe area instead of bailing into the arms of another defender, these advanced analytic stats are all nice, but it’s college football not pro football it’s not even 20% that it translates either way into the pros, you need to be able to use your eyes studying these guys, and when you have them in for interviews get a feel if the kid has what it takes to make it in the pros off the field as much as on the field.

[Lupz27]

58 minutes ago, oc_jet said:

There were two extremely insightful posts recently, by HMHertz and Gangrene. Props for posting.

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/4/1/17185862/nfl-draft-qb-ball-placement-analysis

• Clean = basically the QB got his feet set and made a throw with his normal mechanics
• Move = the QB threw it on the move
• Tight Window = the defense was tight enough that the QB had to adjust the ball-placement to get it around/through the defense.

The main takeaways for me:

• Holy Lauletta (though he has by far the least amount of film compared to the others)
• Mayfield and Rosen are also very good, as expected
• Based on these numbers, Lamar Jackson is one of the most accurate QBs in the draft but REALLY struggles on those screen passes/passes to the flats.
• Rudolph is terribly average.

And the Dan Orlovsky/ Peter King podcast:

https://dfkfj8j276wwv.cloudfront.net/episodes/57ff7f93-1714-4ba6-a485-7d9761fb9b6c/ce6d056e00b3d022ca8ad0b0c6abacfebc455927501bfca2307eeb90dd241c07fb09434ecac27e98e27df0e31ebac4eab9170139033a98dc0cde69727b3f0070/2018 04 04 MMQB with Peter King.mp3

If you listened closely to Orlovsky's detailed view and look at the metrics of what this chart reveals, The Jets should want no part of Josh Allen. Yes, Allen is also very smart and has a cannon for an arm, but he doesnt have the ability to think beyond what is patently obvious and see many alternatives on the moving chess board of football. In other words, the ability for instantaneous scenario projection and strategic adjustment. His numbers bear that out to me. Conversely, Mayfield, Darnold and Rosen appear to possess that quality. One thing with Rosen, however, we better have a solid offensive line, because he breaks down when on the move. Also, Jackson is no slouch. He just requires a different level of commitment, which I dont think the Jets are willing to make. If we could somehow come away with one of these three and Lauletta, the Jets would be set for the next 5-7 years. 

Also if I was going to use this as a big deciding factor I would have just sat at 6, and smiled while drafting Lamar Jackson.

[jetrider]

Mayfield has the greenest numbers, within top 5 in all categories.

Rosen ranks dead last on the move, is the most sackable and most fragile of the class. Terrible combination.

[Lupz27]

3 minutes ago, jetrider said:

Mayfield has the greenest numbers, within top 5 in all categories.

Rosen ranks dead last on the move, is the most sackable and most fragile of the class. Terrible combination.

Lamar Jackson has the most impressive numbers to me, that behind the LOS stuff is nonsense to me, a lot of those throws are either by design in spread offenses that boostt other QB’s like Mayfield’s numbers, and kills other QB’s who don’t have great talent around them on the line to block the play, or WR’s, and RB’s getting to the open spots, would need to watch film to see if it’s a QB issue, scheme issue, or talent issue.

[Lupz27]

4 minutes ago, jetrider said:

Mayfield has the greenest numbers, within top 5 in all categories.

Rosen ranks dead last on the move, is the most sackable and most fragile of the class. Terrible combination.

Or Rosen could be the best at not being a pussy with happy feet, and has the balls to hang in the pocket the most, take the hits to complete the passes instead of getting out of the pocket as soon as you feel the first breeze go by you, and then try, and run around to make big plays, but you find in the NFL your 4.85 40 speed is trash, and you can’t get away with doing that stuff in the NFL with that trash speed/athleticism, and you become Geno Smith, the NFL is a win from inside the pocket league, Rosen is best suited of all the QB’s.

[jetrider]

2 minutes ago, Lupz27 said:

Or Rosen could be the best at not being a pussy with happy feet, and has the balls to hang in the pocket the most, take the hits to complete the passes instead of getting out of the pocket as soon as you feel the first breeze go by you, and then try, and run around to make big plays, but you find in the NFL your 4.85 40 speed is trash, and you can’t get away with doing that stuff in the NFL with that trash speed/athleticism, and you become Geno Smith, the NFL is a win from inside the pocket league, Rosen is best suited of all the QB’s.

Or more likely Rosen needs all day to make a read and won't get it in the pros at NFL speed. 

The numbers show Broadway Baker Touchdown Maker excels inside and outside the pocket. Why spin it?

[Patriot Killa]

15 minutes ago, jetrider said:

Or more likely Rosen needs all day to make a read and won't get it in the pros at NFL speed. 

The numbers show Broadway Baker Touchdown Maker excels inside and outside the pocket. Why spin it?

LOLOLOLLOLOLOL!!!

Rosen needs all day to make a read? Jesus, Mary and Joesph....Rosen goes thru read 1-4 lightening quick and makes quick and decisive decisions. 

Yeah, let’s just ignore the fact his O-line was garbo and don’t give me “Kolton Miller is going to be a 1st rounder.” Because he is a decent LT who had a good combine..those assumptions were earned post-college season.

[JohnnyLV]

1 hour ago, jetstream23 said:

1. Darnold

2A. Rosen

2B. Mayfield

 

That has got to be the Jets draft board.  I will be pretty disappointed if we take Allen over any of those guys.  I like his upside but this franchise is not in position to take a risk here.

Nothing in those stats suggest Darnold should be #1. Nothing. Mayfield is clearly the best in this analysis. In fact it raises very serious concerns about Darnold's ability to transition to the NFL where the tight window and beyond first read statistics along with deep accuracy are the most important. It also suggests Allen will tank hard in the NFL. Mayfield is the best QB in the draft but people just dont want to buy it, all they see is Manziel.

[Charlie Brown]

50 minutes ago, Lupz27 said:

Also if I was going to use this as a big deciding factor I would have just sat at 6, and smiled while drafting Lamar Jackson.

Thank you.

I got pilloried for saying this in another thread. This idea that Jackson is “just” a running QB or like RG is just not supportable.  

Jackson has a chance to be Great but he has to be properly groomed and developed.  

[Obrien2Toon]

2 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

1. Darnold

2A. Rosen

2B. Mayfield

 

That has got to be the Jets draft board.  I will be pretty disappointed if we take Allen over any of those guys.  I like his upside but this franchise is not in position to take a risk here.

If Allen goes to the Giants or Broncos, he turns into a bigger Elway

the Jets, Browns, or Bills and he’s a complete bust

same with Mayfield to a lesser extent

we have to go with Rosen, the guy with the highest floor

i really see him as the only can’t miss, not even the Jets can mess him up

though his upside may not be as high as Allen or Darnold

[Il Mostro]

Lauletta is going to be the steal of the draft.  

[flgreen]

43 minutes ago, Il Mostro said:

Lauletta is going to be the steal of the draft.  

I'm inclined to agree with you.  I was really hoping that the Jet might double dip at QB in the second.  No chance of that now.  Some body in the early 2nd is going to get a  good starting QB

[FidelioJet]

1 hour ago, Obrien2Toon said:

If Allen goes to the Giants or Broncos, he turns into a bigger Elway

the Jets, Browns, or Bills and he’s a complete bust

same with Mayfield to a lesser extent

we have to go with Rosen, the guy with the highest floor

i really see him as the only can’t miss, not even the Jets can mess him up

though his upside may not be as high as Allen or Darnold

why?

[C Mart]

3 hours ago, jetrider said:

Or more likely Rosen needs all day to make a read and won't get it in the pros at NFL speed. 

The numbers show Broadway Baker Touchdown Maker excels inside and outside the pocket. Why spin it?

You get the best spiral 

[Jetsplayer21]

1 hour ago, Il Mostro said:

Lauletta is going to be the steal of the draft.  

I think pats may grab him

[Gangrene]

2 hours ago, Obrien2Toon said:

If Allen goes to the Giants or Broncos, he turns into a bigger Elway

the Jets, Browns, or Bills and he’s a complete bust

same with Mayfield to a lesser extent

we have to go with Rosen, the guy with the highest floor

i really see him as the only can’t miss, not even the Jets can mess him up

though his upside may not be as high as Allen or Darnold

It sucks but based on the personnel decisions and coaching of the Jets franchise ...it's hard to argue with some of this, Rosen despite the injury risks...makes sense. I do think, despite the Peterman cock up last years, the Bills are making the hard decisions and putting their jobs on the line with high risk moves. The Bills may have a future. Allen going to the Bills may not be a car crash.

The Giants, I am not convinced that this down year just past was a blip on the screen. Their thinking of spending more money to win with Eli I think is wrong... plus the Beckham debacle. However they have a decent coach, Allen would have  a chance. 

The Browns, with Tyrod Taylor  starting and all that inbound draft talent is not a bad place for Allen to figure things out. They have a veteran GM, they have to make a decision on Hue Jackson.

The Broncos would be great for Allen, the GM is a make-sh*t-happen icon, plus he would be two hours drive from his old college stadium.

[Il Mostro]

1 hour ago, Jetsplayer21 said:

I think pats may grab him

Funny, I was thinking exactly the same thing.  

[RESNewYork]

4 hours ago, Charlie Brown said:

Thank you.

I got pilloried for saying this in another thread. This idea that Jackson is “just” a running QB or like RG is just not supportable.  

Jackson has a chance to be Great but he has to be properly groomed and developed.  

I'm the fan that wanted to stay at 6, save the picks, and draft Jackson.

[choon328]

I don't see why Darnold is the #1 guy. Out of the 4 he isn't the most mobile, he doesn't have the best accuracy, he doesn't have the strongest arm. He literally is not the best in any category he just isn't the worst in any category so it makes him the easiest to assess and project. The other 3 have way more upside if they put it all together in my opinion. I would stay away from Darnold.

[DetroitRed]

I don't see why Darnold is the #1 guy. Out of the 4 he isn't the most mobile, he doesn't have the best accuracy, he doesn't have the strongest arm. He literally is not the best in any category he just isn't the worst in any category so it makes him the easiest to assess and project. The other 3 have way more upside if they put it all together in my opinion. I would stay away from Darnold.

Interesting. I would stay away from Allen.

Think we should all remember that intangibles are a real thing. Eli has qualities that don’t show up in stats, so does Brady. I think Mayfield has a little bit of that


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[Dupe]

This looks to me like someone put some crazy numbers together to push Mayfield. 

[JoJoTownsell1]

8 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

1. Darnold

2A. Rosen

2B. Mayfield

 

That has got to be the Jets draft board.  I will be pretty disappointed if we take Allen over any of those guys.  I like his upside but this franchise is not in position to take a risk here.

The franchise isn't a position to get it wrong. That's it. Plain and simple. There is risk with each of these QBs. I really hope Macc isn't going to pick the "safe bet." 

If Jay Cutler came out the same year as Carson Wentz, I am sure there would be posters wanting Cutler over Wentz because he was a safer bet.  

 

[Jet Nut]

12 hours ago, johnnysd said:

Nothing in those stats suggest Darnold should be #1. Nothing. Mayfield is clearly the best in this analysis. In fact it raises very serious concerns about Darnold's ability to transition to the NFL where the tight window and beyond first read statistics along with deep accuracy are the most important. It also suggests Allen will tank hard in the NFL. Mayfield is the best QB in the draft but people just dont want to buy it, all they see is Manziel.

Because like it or not, accept it or not, his game is more like Manziel right than the Brees/Wilson comparison people are trying to make.  

[DetroitRed]

Because like it or not, about it or not, his game is more like Manziel than the Brees/Wilson comparing people are trying to make.  

His game, I guess. Hopefully, he is not a drug addict, like Manziel


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[Jet Nut]

5 hours ago, DetroitRed said:

His game, I guess. Hopefully, he is not a drug addict, like Manziel


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I would hope not, lol

[JohnnyLV]

9 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Because like it or not, accept it or not, his game is more like Manziel right than the Brees/Wilson comparison people are trying to make.  

Nothing true in that statement whatsoever. His game is extremely close to Brees from a throwing and footwork standpoint, with the addition of being as Mayock has called him- "the best RPO QB he has ever seen" which DOES work in the modern NFL. If Baker was 6'3" there would not even be a discussion of #1 QB in the draft.

[flgreen]

[kelly]

18 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

1. darnold

2. josh 

.. has 2 be the jets draft board  

fixed ^ ^...

 

 

[DetroitRed]

I would hope not, lol

Well that would give him a huge advantage over Johnny druggie


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[Jet Nut]

1 hour ago, johnnysd said:

Nothing true in that statement whatsoever. His game is extremely close to Brees from a throwing and footwork standpoint, with the addition of being as Mayock has called him- "the best RPO QB he has ever seen" which DOES work in the modern NFL. If Baker was 6'3" there would not even be a discussion of #1 QB in the draft.

Sorry, they ran similar offenses, are both undersized.  There is nothing about Mayfields game that is remotely similar to what Brees is.  

You're also wrong about Mayock.  Mayock has Allen rated his second best QB, behind Darnold.  He has Rosen third and Mayfield 4th.  

And there is nothing as pointless as saying if he was 6' 3".  He's not and wil never be.  It's like if someone said if only Geno was smarter....

[Jet Nut]

34 minutes ago, DetroitRed said:

 

Well that would give him a huge advantage over Johnny druggie


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As a person, not necessarily as a QB.  

[DetroitRed]

As a person, not necessarily as a QB.  

Huh? Drug abusing athletes are on equal ground with straight ones? It actually is what wrecked his career


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