Reality Check

[Rsherman28]

The 2019 season has us set up to be optimistic and hopeful. The Jets brought in some key positions and have done an overhaul in the coaching staff. There is no doubt that we will be better next year considering the bar is not set that high, finishing 4-12 last year. But most of our new found success can be lying on some hope that may not be found by the end of next year. There are 3 concerns that I think can have us saying same old Jets this year, if we can overcome it, Darnold will a strong Year 2 in the right direction towards the playoffs. 

Le'veon Bell -2014 through 2016 Bell was close too if not, the best running back in the NFL. His second year in the NFL, 2014, Bell averaged 4.7 yards a carry which is unbelievable given the amount of snaps he took that year. The next 2 years, 2015 and 16, Bell moved his rushing average up to a 4.9. Behind one of the best NFL offensive lines, behind one of the best quarterbacks to play the game, next to one of the top wide receivers in the game, Leveon was able to sustain success. 

• One of my concerns, Bell's last playing year for the Steelers, we saw his average yards per attempt drop all the way to a 4.0 per carry, just .1 shy of his rookie campaign. His rushing attempts went up from 261 to 321 and saw 12 more targets in the passing game. Asking Bell to be a workhorse for the Jets just might be too much. Asking Bell to duplicate these numbers behind our offensive line, with our play makers, on year 2 with Darnold might be too much to ask 

No WR #1 - The 2019 Jets wide receiver room is full of possession wide outs, each hold a pretty unique skill set. Robbie Anderson can take the top off any defense, Q Enunwa is a hybrid receiver who can line up out of the fullback position and strong enough to carry defenders with him, and Jamison Crowder just made 28.5 million playing in the "slot" position in the middle of the field. All of these wide outs can complement a quarterback well if the offense is designed too get the ball out quick and often. 

• One of my concerns, injury. When not having a go-to type of receiver everything has to be going right for the offense, running game, play action, boot legs. With that being said, Crowder started only 7 games due to injury last year and Q only completed 10. 17/32 games started between the both of them is not ideal. I like Robby Anderson, a whole lot will change for him if he competes well this year on a contact year, but I would be surprised if he puts up #1 WR numbers and these 2 start close to 16 games. 

Edge Rushing and Covering - Probably one of Todd Bowles biggest weakness. They go hand and hand. In most cases, a defense usually invest heavily in one these areas. A good pass rush can hide weak pass coverage and vise versa. Struggling in both areas is usually how you finish 24th overall in the league against the pass. Jochai Polite and Trumaine Johnson are going to be very interesting players to watch next year. Polite's time in Florida was electric in pass rushing, Trumaine Johnson is coming back from injury after only playing 10 games in 2018, he still led the team with 4 interceptions and earned an above average PFF grade 74.9. Still it was an off-year after signing top 10 corner money. 

• One of my concerns, over achievement. Henry Anderson was entering week 15 in 2018 with only 3 sacks before blowing up in Houston. All 3 players who were pass rushers in 2018 (Anderson, Jenkins, Copleland) finished with only 9, 8, 7 QB hits other than sacks. That is below average pressure, when these players are not getting sacks, there is not much more they are doing other than Jenkins. There is a lot of pressure on Q. Williams and CJ Mosley to fix the rush defense who finished 26th last year. N.Sheppard is going to have to contribute while Anderson is off the field.

[Skeptable]

9 minutes ago, Rsherman28 said:

One of my concerns, over achievement. Henry Anderson was entering week 15 in 2018 with only 3 sacks before blowing up in Houston. All 3 players who were pass rushers in 2018 (Anderson, Jenkins, Copleland) finished with only 9, 8, 7 QB hits other than sacks. That is below average pressure, when these players are not getting sacks, there is not much more they are doing other than Jenkins. There is a lot of pressure on Q. Williams and CJ Mosley to fix the rush defense who finished 26th last year. N.Sheppard is going to have to contribute while Anderson is off the field.

You think that players over-achieved last year? Wow... that is not at all what I would have been worried about.

[peebag]

I wish I had your optimism.

Haven't been to the playoffs in 8 years

Same GM from prior years 

New HC with record of failure.

Another draft heavy on defense.

Our new offense weapon has been sitting for over a year.

No #1 WR

No #1 CB

Major questions on Oline

 

[Jetsfan80]

Among the OP's concerns, these are the ones I'm not concerned about all that much:

• Bell's YPC:  I fully expect Bell to start declining as a runner (and given the numbers, that process has already begun), but that doesn't matter much.  He's our best pass-catcher, and that's where he'll be making his money. 
• Lack of # 1 WR:  If Darnold is truly our franchise QB, he'll make his receivers better.  And historically, its better to have a bunch of effective pass-catchers than one "target hog".  I like the weapons Darnold has available to him at least for the next 2 seasons. 
• Over-achieving in 2018:  lol, no.  Just no. 

 

Concerns that are legitimate, if not under-stated:

• Injuries:  We are absolutely 1 injury away from our WR corps looking good to being very pedestrian.  While guys like Bell and Herndon should pick up the slack if/when Enunwa and/or Anderson go down, we still need guys who can play the WR position to take the field.  We probably can't just run 2-TE sets all game. 
• Edge Rushing and Covering:  Um, yeah.  So our defense is slow and likely still won't be able to get to the QB unless Polite and Quinnen Williams immediately make an impact there.  Adding Gregg Williams was the best news for Trumaine Johnson, as he'll now be used as a press corner like he's supposed to be.  But Johnson can't fill that role AND be the # 1 corner.  And we need a pass rush to make the defense work as currently constructed. 

All in all just those 2 items in the "concerns" category are enough to sink our season. 

[Rsherman28]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Among the OP's concerns, these are the ones I'm not concerned about all that much:

• Bell's YPC:  I fully expect Bell to start declining as a runner (and given the numbers, that process has already begun), but that doesn't matter much.  He's our best pass-catcher, and that's where he'll be making his money. 
• Lack of # 1 WR:  If Darnold is truly our franchise QB, he'll make his receivers better.  And historically, its better to have a bunch of effective pass-catchers than one "target hog".  I like the weapons Darnold has available to him at least for the next 2 seasons. 
• Over-achieving in 2018:  lol, no.  Just no. 

 

Concerns that are legitimate, if not under-stated:

• Injuries:  We are absolutely 1 injury away from our WR corps looking good to being very pedestrian.  While guys like Bell and Herndon should pick up the slack if/when Enunwa and/or Anderson go down, we still need guys who can play the WR position to take the field.  We probably can't just run 2-TE sets all game. 
• Edge Rushing and Covering:  Um, yeah.  So our defense is slow and likely still won't be able to get to the QB unless Polite and Quinnen Williams immediately make an impact there.  Adding Gregg Williams was the best news for Trumaine Johnson, as he'll now be used as a press corner like he's supposed to be.  But Johnson can't fill that role AND be the # 1 corner.  And we need a pass rush to make the defense work as currently constructed. 

All in all just those 2 items in the "concerns" category are enough to sink our season. 

over achieving not the best choice of wording as I look back lol I meant players who spark up and player decent for one year but have been in the league (Anderson, Copeland), not sure anyone projected Anderson's or Copeland's numbers before the season. 

I agree with Darnold having the ability to make this group good.

If we take each players best year's receiving. Total of 3,499 yards

1. Anderson 941
2. Crowder 847
3. Enunwa 857
4. Bell 854

I don't think all these players will stay healthy, nor do i project all of them having these yards. 

If Anderson, Crowder, and Q can put up similar numbers to these, it will be an exciting year on offense. Add Herndon, Wesco, and Leggett to the mix, the help is there for Darnold. 

I am not looking for a target hog wide receiver, but with our current group, it's going to take a smart scheming to get players in the right spots to score, 4 and 5 wide receiver sets, Bell in the slot, Q and Wesco catching the ball out of the Hback spot. Sometimes it's nice to have a number one guy to throw the fade route to in the red zone when you really need one. 

 

 

[Patriot Killa]

4 minutes ago, Rsherman28 said:

it's going to take a smart scheming to get players in the right spots to score, 4 and 5 wide receiver sets, Bell in the slot, Q and Wesco catching the ball out of the Hback spot. Sometimes it's nice to have a number one guy to throw the fade route to in the red zone when you really need one. 

This is what Gase is here to do. 

So.

[Rsherman28]

2 hours ago, Skeptable said:

You think that players over-achieved last year? Wow... that is not at all what I would have been worried about.

I mentioned 2 players in the over achieving section, Copeland and Anderson. Who both got contracts this year. 

I thought there numbers can look a little inflated. Anderson getting 4 out of his 7 sacks in the last 3 weeks. Copeland with only 7 QB hits for the year not including sacks, as a situational pass rusher.  

Over achieving was probably a bad way to describe it. 

Both these players were in the league for a couple years before last year, if they don't pan out this year, 2018 would have been an over achieving year, 

[Apache 51]

Producers, and consumers no different than the food chain.

[GreenFish]

13 minutes ago, Rsherman28 said:

I mentioned 2 players in the over achieving section, Copeland and Anderson. Who both got contracts this year. 

I thought there numbers can look a little inflated. Anderson getting 4 out of his 7 sacks in the last 3 weeks. Copeland with only 7 QB hits for the year not including sacks, as a situational pass rusher.  

Over achieving was probably a bad way to describe it. 

Both these players were in the league for a couple years before last year, if they don't pan out this year, 2018 would have been an over achieving year, 

Anderson and Copeland outperformed expectations last year. There’s a chance they’ll revert back to their play in prior seasons. 

[Jet Nut]

7 minutes ago, GreenFish said:

Anderson and Copeland outperformed expectations last year. There’s a chance they’ll revert back to their play in prior seasons. 

Can say this about lots of players

 

[#27TheDominator]

9 minutes ago, GreenFish said:

Anderson and Copeland outperformed expectations last year. There’s a chance they’ll revert back to their play in prior seasons. 

I don't think Anderson's performance was anything unexpected.  His staying healthy was.

[Jet Nut]

2 hours ago, peebag said:

New HC with record of failure.

Yes, he should have won after his QB went down and missed most of 2 seasons. 

Failure

[Jetster]

We have a lot of guys developing, that's what happens in the NFL, guys get drafted, guys get developed, guys learn very early the NFL is a team game. Play within the scheme, dont try to do everything, learn your role.

Some guys develop faster than others, but this team needed some kind of direction & much more discipline. This was a very undisciplined team that seemed to make a lot of the same mistakes, over & over.

On offense, just concentrating on limiting the dead ball fouls & playing the positive yardage game can change everything. I felt like this offense was always going backwards, and constantly playing behind the sticks. 

The defense also gave up LONG BACKBREAKING drives, that would never allow Sam to get any kind of rhythm. You get 15% better each quarter of the season on each side of the ball & you flip field position & TOP, and you change the entire game. I want to see improvement on both sides of the ball as the season progresses & the schemes sink in, unlike Bowles/Rogers where the team seemed to get worse & the same mistakes occurred in the 4th quarter of the season were the same ones made during the 1st quarter of the season. 

WIDE OPEN PASS CATCHERS WITH NO ONE IN THE TV PICTURE! And then the camera moves to the sideline & absolutely no one is communicating with anyone? Then cut back to Bowles, arms crossed with that stupid look on his face. Could have been Buffalo in 2015 or the Pats in December of 2018. Always looked the same. 

[GreenFish]

17 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

I don't think Anderson's performance was anything unexpected.  His staying healthy was.

Staying healthy was unexpected as well.

His play was significantly improved though.

In 29 games prior to last season, he totaled 3 sacks and 16 QB pressures. Last year in about half the games he had 7 sacks and 16 QB pressures. 

I get he missed games because of injuries, but unless you are also saying he played hurt, that’s a material uptick in production. 

[Rsherman28]

24 minutes ago, GreenFish said:

Staying healthy was unexpected as well.

His play was significantly improved though.

In 29 games prior to last season, he totaled 3 sacks and 16 QB pressures. Last year in about half the games he had 7 sacks and 16 QB pressures. 

I get he missed games because of injuries, but unless you are also saying he played hurt, that’s a material uptick in production. 

I like him as a player, don't agree with giving him the 3/25 year million contract. Maybe a 1 year prove it deal for around 7 million seemed appropriate. 

Same with the Tru Johnson and Daryl Roberts. I like the players, hate the contracts. 

 

[Rsherman28]

1 hour ago, Patriot Killa said:

This is what Gase is here to do. 

So.

I am not opposed to it, in fact, I think Gase is the right guy for the job. Excited to see what he can do with a QB in year 2. 

 

[choon328]

3 hours ago, Rsherman28 said:

The 2019 season has us set up to be optimistic and hopeful. The Jets brought in some key positions and have done an overhaul in the coaching staff. There is no doubt that we will be better next year considering the bar is not set that high, finishing 4-12 last year. But most of our new found success can be lying on some hope that may not be found by the end of next year. There are 3 concerns that I think can have us saying same old Jets this year, if we can overcome it, Darnold will a strong Year 2 in the right direction towards the playoffs. 

Le'veon Bell -2014 through 2016 Bell was close too if not, the best running back in the NFL. His second year in the NFL, 2014, Bell averaged 4.7 yards a carry which is unbelievable given the amount of snaps he took that year. The next 2 years, 2015 and 16, Bell moved his rushing average up to a 4.9. Behind one of the best NFL offensive lines, behind one of the best quarterbacks to play the game, next to one of the top wide receivers in the game, Leveon was able to sustain success. 

• One of my concerns, Bell's last playing year for the Steelers, we saw his average yards per attempt drop all the way to a 4.0 per carry, just .1 shy of his rookie campaign. His rushing attempts went up from 261 to 321 and saw 12 more targets in the passing game. Asking Bell to be a workhorse for the Jets just might be too much. Asking Bell to duplicate these numbers behind our offensive line, with our play makers, on year 2 with Darnold might be too much to ask 

No WR #1 - The 2019 Jets wide receiver room is full of possession wide outs, each hold a pretty unique skill set. Robbie Anderson can take the top off any defense, Q Enunwa is a hybrid receiver who can line up out of the fullback position and strong enough to carry defenders with him, and Jamison Crowder just made 28.5 million playing in the "slot" position in the middle of the field. All of these wide outs can complement a quarterback well if the offense is designed too get the ball out quick and often. 

• One of my concerns, injury. When not having a go-to type of receiver everything has to be going right for the offense, running game, play action, boot legs. With that being said, Crowder started only 7 games due to injury last year and Q only completed 10. 17/32 games started between the both of them is not ideal. I like Robby Anderson, a whole lot will change for him if he competes well this year on a contact year, but I would be surprised if he puts up #1 WR numbers and these 2 start close to 16 games. 

Edge Rushing and Covering - Probably one of Todd Bowles biggest weakness. They go hand and hand. In most cases, a defense usually invest heavily in one these areas. A good pass rush can hide weak pass coverage and vise versa. Struggling in both areas is usually how you finish 24th overall in the league against the pass. Jochai Polite and Trumaine Johnson are going to be very interesting players to watch next year. Polite's time in Florida was electric in pass rushing, Trumaine Johnson is coming back from injury after only playing 10 games in 2018, he still led the team with 4 interceptions and earned an above average PFF grade 74.9. Still it was an off-year after signing top 10 corner money. 

• One of my concerns, over achievement. Henry Anderson was entering week 15 in 2018 with only 3 sacks before blowing up in Houston. All 3 players who were pass rushers in 2018 (Anderson, Jenkins, Copleland) finished with only 9, 8, 7 QB hits other than sacks. That is below average pressure, when these players are not getting sacks, there is not much more they are doing other than Jenkins. There is a lot of pressure on Q. Williams and CJ Mosley to fix the rush defense who finished 26th last year. N.Sheppard is going to have to contribute while Anderson is off the field.

The fact that offensive line is not on this list is ridiculous and makes every other point you made invalid. You guys who keep thinking the offensive line is just going to become some great unit bc they added a Guard to an existing group that was below average last year are in for a rude awakening. Sadly, It's going to take an injury to Darnold for you all to realize the importance of the offensive line. 

[peebag]

1 hour ago, Jet Nut said:

Yes, he should have won after his QB went down and missed most of 2 seasons. 

Failure

Ok - I'll give ya that one.  Super Bowl?

[rangerous]

3 minutes ago, choon328 said:

The fact that offensive line is not on this list is ridiculous and makes every other point you made invalid. You guys who keep thinking the offensive line is just going to become some great unit bc they added a Guard to an existing group that was below average last year are in for a rude awakening. Sadly, It's going to take an injury to Darnold for you all to realize the importance of the offensive line. 

they added a guard and maybe found a decent center in harrison.  not to mention that it takes a couple of seasons for olines to really start playing together. not to mention that darnolds play can make an oline look much better than it is, much like tommy boy does with the patsies.   i've seen over 50 years of jets games and i prefer to be optimistic.  the oline isn't going to great but if the give darnold that extra split second and the receivers make some catches then things will look much better.

[Rsherman28]

7 minutes ago, choon328 said:

The fact that offensive line is not on this list is ridiculous and makes every other point you made invalid. You guys who keep thinking the offensive line is just going to become some great unit bc they added a Guard to an existing group that was below average last year are in for a rude awakening. Sadly, It's going to take an injury to Darnold for you all to realize the importance of the offensive line. 

Not the case at all, I just can't read another thread on here complaining about GM/OL. 

 

[JoJoTownsell1]

7 minutes ago, choon328 said:

The fact that offensive line is not on this list is ridiculous and makes every other point you made invalid. You guys who keep thinking the offensive line is just going to become some great unit bc they added a Guard to an existing group that was below average last year are in for a rude awakening. Sadly, It's going to take an injury to Darnold for you all to realize the importance of the offensive line. 

I have yet to see a single poster suggest the Offensive line is going to be great. I haven't even seen a poster suggest it would be very good. I think many here are hopeful for average and if Darnold emerges (Wentz was GREAT year 2) and Bell/Herndon/Anderson/Enunwa/Crowder do their thing the offense MAY be very good. 

[choon328]

An average offensive line will bring the rest of the offense down. This same story has played out many many times in the NFL. Brady is the exception not the rule.

[bealeb319]

I wish I had your optimism.
Haven't been to the playoffs in 8 years
Same GM from prior years 
New HC with record of failure.
Another draft heavy on defense.
Our new offense weapon has been sitting for over a year.
No #1 WR
No #1 CB
Major questions on Oline
 

My concerns are similar to yours though I would like to point out that the patriots have won plenty of super bowls with no number one type of receiver.

Sent from my LGUS991 using JetNation.com mobile app

[Jet_Engine1]

Ill be ecstatic if we see them hit .500 

 

Seriously. 

 

I'd rather see a solid 8-8 season with good development and competitiveness from start to finish than another Coaching Staff year 1 fluke (Herm, Mangini, Rex, Bowles)10-6ish season that sets unsustainable, unrealistic expectations that go through the roof.

 And set the team up for failure. Again.

 

 

[Alka]

11 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Among the OP's concerns, these are the ones I'm not concerned about all that much:

• Bell's YPC:  I fully expect Bell to start declining as a runner (and given the numbers, that process has already begun), but that doesn't matter much.  He's our best pass-catcher, and that's where he'll be making his money. 
• Lack of # 1 WR:  If Darnold is truly our franchise QB, he'll make his receivers better.  And historically, its better to have a bunch of effective pass-catchers than one "target hog".  I like the weapons Darnold has available to him at least for the next 2 seasons. 
• Over-achieving in 2018:  lol, no.  Just no. 

 

Concerns that are legitimate, if not under-stated:

• Injuries:  We are absolutely 1 injury away from our WR corps looking good to being very pedestrian.  While guys like Bell and Herndon should pick up the slack if/when Enunwa and/or Anderson go down, we still need guys who can play the WR position to take the field.  We probably can't just run 2-TE sets all game. 
• Edge Rushing and Covering:  Um, yeah.  So our defense is slow and likely still won't be able to get to the QB unless Polite and Quinnen Williams immediately make an impact there.  Adding Gregg Williams was the best news for Trumaine Johnson, as he'll now be used as a press corner like he's supposed to be.  But Johnson can't fill that role AND be the # 1 corner.  And we need a pass rush to make the defense work as currently constructed. 

All in all just those 2 items in the "concerns" category are enough to sink our season. 

I agree with mostly what you said, except you lost me with your assessment of Bell declining as a runner.

He just turned 27 years old, and has rested his body for the last entire season.  He is in his prime with a well rested body. To make a judgement that he is in decline as a runner is laughable and should not be taken seriously.

Let's give the guy this season to prove you right and me wrong.  I think if he stays healthy, I will be looking good after this year.  Everyone continued to write off Curtis Martin, but Curtis had his most productive season after he hit 30 years old, and he never rested like Bell did.

[CanadienJetsFan]

This time it’s different because we have Sam.

[Jetster]

7 hours ago, Alka said:

I agree with mostly what you said, except you lost me with your assessment of Bell declining as a runner.

He just turned 27 years old, and has rested his body for the last entire season.  He is in his prime with a well rested body. To make a judgement that he is in decline as a runner is laughable and should not be taken seriously.

Let's give the guy this season to prove you right and me wrong.  I think if he stays healthy, I will be looking good after this year.  Everyone continued to write off Curtis Martin, but Curtis had his most productive season after he hit 30 years old, and he never rested like Bell did.

Exactly! The Steelers weren't offering him peanuts, they offered him a ton of money, he just felt he deserved more based on his running & RECEIVING. 

[Jetster]

7 hours ago, CanadienJetsFan said:

This time it’s different because we have Sam.

Sam changes everything. If we go 10-6 it's because Sam & the defense have balance & Gase has gotten everyone on the same page quickly. It won't just be because of a weak schedule like the Fitz year. 

You can take guys who hate losing all day long, every year like Adams, Mosely, Q. Williams, Leo, but if they don't have a decent QB to lead the offense & make plays, they'll have a long career with very little big games. 

Even when you find your QB it doesn't guarantee success a Super Bowl, Marino, Kelly, Rivers, ect. But when you look at some of these great QBs that didn't win a Super Bowl a lot of them were pocket guys with no wheels. Getting away from a sack could be the difference from winning or losing a playoff game. Brady is such an anomaly in every way. Like many have said here, a tremendous Oline can also win a Super Bowl, (Eagles, Foles), but that game was won with balls & innovation from Peterson too, 4th down call on his side of the field & the Philly Special. It really is the ultimate team game & you need everyone being their best to win a Super Bowl. 

[BCJet]

9 hours ago, choon328 said:

An average offensive line will bring the rest of the offense down. This same story has played out many many times in the NFL. Brady is the exception not the rule.

The offensive line is going to be better (barring injury) simply due to Leveon forcing teams to respect him as a receiver and Sam being a year further into his development.

Yes, out line has been awful and I wish we had allocated more picks there, but the real reason its been so bad is that we had Josh McCown in 2017 and a rookie QB in 2018 and with Bates tipping his plays, teams didnt need to defend the whole field.

Thats where things will hopefully change.

[Jet Nut]

18 hours ago, peebag said:

Ok - I'll give ya that one.  Super Bowl?

I wish, wouldnt really complain.  

Much

[jgb]

OP lost me at first sentence how exactly does a 4-12 season set up anyone except Bills and Fins fans to be hopeful?

[Peace Frog]

-An OLine that is going to be better than last year from a personnel standpoint (and I don’t think it’s done being built) 

-An offensive line coach who oversaw that stout Dallas offensive line then went on to oversee an improved Bengal offensive line 

-A real offensive coordinator in Gase that will figure out how design a scheme to protect Sam 

-Sam himself taking a step forward in being more comfortable with the speed of the game and reading defenses, coverages, blitz packages 

-Bell, Crowder, Montgomery, a year older Herndon, a nasty blocking pass catching  outlet in Wesco

Maybe it’s just me but I think the line is going to be just fine and better than “average”.

[southparkcpa]

On 5/13/2019 at 10:56 AM, peebag said:

I wish I had your optimism.

Haven't been to the playoffs in 8 years

Same GM from prior years 

New HC with record of failure.

Another draft heavy on defense.

Our new offense weapon has been sitting for over a year.

No #1 WR

No #1 CB

Major questions on Oline

 

Why let facts get in the way of someone’s optimism.  You forgot to mention same owner. 

There are fans here who think Woody is a good owner.