How much more does Darnold step up his game

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, JiF said:

You believe wholeheartedly, that Sam Darnold had the 3rd longest time to throw in the NFL?  You 100% believe that as fact? 

Serious question. 

 

Just now, JiF said:

Yes, because fools like you eat it up! 

 

I certainly trust that more than a guy who says "I'm a Jets fan who watched the games and he had no time to throw".  You remember the times when Beachum was hurt and our OL wasn't giving him much time.  You easily forget all the times he held onto the ball for roughly forever.  

[JustInFudge]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

 

 

I certainly trust that more than a guy who says "I'm a Jets fan who watched the games and he had no time to throw".  You remember the times when Beachum was hurt and our OL wasn't giving him much time.  You easily forget all the times he held onto the ball for roughly forever.  

If Sam Darnold had the 3rd most time to throw in the NFL, why are we looking to replace the OL?  Just bring everyone back!  Based on this full proof "stat", they're elite at pass blocking.  Elite.  

 

 

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, JiF said:

If Sam Darnold had the 3rd most time to throw in the NFL, why are we looking to replace the OL?  Just bring everyone back!  Based on this full proof "stat", they're elite at pass blocking.  Elite.  

The run-blocking was trash.  That's why.  Only Miami was worse in that category and they were purposely tanking. 

We need a new RT and 2 new G's something fierce.  And Beachum is getting old, and merely a stopgap LT.  So we'll need a long-term replacement there.  

[JustInFudge]

lmfao - the NY Jets were elite at pass blocking.  That's what just happened in this thread.

[JustInFudge]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

The run-blocking was trash.  That's why.  We need a new RT and 2 new G's something fierce.  And Beachum is getting old, and merely a stopgap LT.  

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, JiF said:

lmfao - the NY Jets were elite at pass blocking.  That's what just happened in this thread.

This is exactly what your brain does.  Rejects information then goes to extremes.

No one said it was an elite pass-blocking OL.  Only that Sam Darnold had the 3rd-most time to throw in the league and that the Sacks he took were more on him than the Line. 

People much smarter than me, like @Sperm Edwards, can explain that to you much better than I can.  But you'll reject that too because #MathIsGay.  

[SAR I]

13 minutes ago, JiF said:

This is laughable.  Anyone that thinks Sam enjoyed the 3rd highest amount of time to throw, never watched the NY Jets.  He had free rushers coming at him on every other play.  The OP pointed out that he was pressured on 42% of his drop backs. 

My gawd, you guys just accept anything served to you. 

This eyetest vs. metrics philosophy is rather interesting.  Numbers don't win football games.  And what Sam is good at can't really be statistically analyzed-  he's a terrific improviser. 

Anyone who watched Sam play this season with such a crippled roster knows we've found our franchise quarterback.  I'm a fan who worries a lot about a lot of things.  Sam Darnold isn't one of them.

SAR I

[JustInFudge]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

This is exactly what your brain does.  Rejects information then goes to extremes.

No one said it was an elite pass-blocking OL.  Only that Sam Darnold had the 3rd-most time to throw in the league and that the Sacks he took were more on him than the Line. 

People much smarter than me, like @Sperm Edwards, can explain that to you much better than I can.  But you'll reject that too because #MathIsGay.  

If you're top 3 in a category, you are elite.  Therefore, the New York Jets were elite at pass blocking.

 

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, JiF said:

If you're top 3 in a category, you are elite.  Therefore, the New York Jets were elite at pass blocking.

 

[JustInFudge]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

 

This was a useful thread and has me assessing the Jets needs this offseason.   Since we have an elite pass blocking OL, we really dont need to focus on OL or WR's.  Sam has plenty of time to throw and the WR's clearly have plenty of time to get open.  We might need 1 G or C to help in the running game.  Easy peasy. 

Now that math has proved the Jets have an elite pass blocking OL, we really need to shift our focus to the defense.  Pass rusher and CB's are now the priorities in the draft.  Ideally, we take an edge at #11.  Those next 3 picks are a mixture of CB's maybe DL too.

[Fantasy Island]

9 hours ago, JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF said:

with just average or better but real NFL talent on the OL?

 

Still coached by Gase, so trick question.

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, JiF said:

This was a useful thread and has me assessing the Jets needs this offseason.   Since we have an elite pass blocking OL, we really dont need to focus on OL or WR's.  Sam has plenty of time to throw and the WR's clearly have plenty of time to get open.  We might need 1 G or C to help in the running game.  Easy peasy. 

 

[JustInFudge]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Bro but math

 

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, JiF said:

Bro but math

 

[Fantasy Island]

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/points-per-game

We were 31st in scoring in a 32 team league and yet no changes on Offense?  

7-9 is the high water mark for the Gase era.

Sam will not improve with this offense.

[MindOverMatter]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

^

This is what half of JN looks like looking to start another hopeless, redundant argument.

[Scott Dierking]

So Darnold finished 16th in the league in completion percentage above expected.

I will take that and say that is the stat variable that I am going to cling to relative to his progress. I suggest it is valuable as he progresses.

Cool

 

[Warfish]

24 minutes ago, SAR I said:

There is not a person in the forums who thought we hadn't found our franchise quarterback the summer of 2011.  After 4 road playoff wins, two AFC Championship Games, and all those 4th quarter comebacks, I don't remember a single person on JI saying we had a QB problem.  The only thing we were talking about at the time was adding Asomugha as a twin with Revis.  The Jets mismanaged the kid.  Biggest tragedy in team history, not investing in him and trying to make him better.  Instead we went out of our way to make him worse.

Sure some of us doubted him.  For some of us, it was obvious early on he was never going to get better.  And he didn't.

The Jets didn't mismanage him.  He simply wasn't that good. 

He did ok'ish when carried by a loaded roster (and was at his best, oddly enough, in the postseason), and was pedestrian to just dogpoop without that loaded roster and in the regular season, and he was a complete non-entity from the moment he left the Jets till today, despite numerous opportunities to prove otherwise. 

He wasn't a very good NFL QB and his career proved that out.

24 minutes ago, SAR I said:

I have no connection to USC other than the last 2 first round QB's my Jets have invested in came from that school.

You had a deep love for Sanchez.  Darnold.  And most famously,  Matt Leinart, who you loudly believed was the 2nd coming of QB Christ.

24 minutes ago, SAR I said:

I like what I see in Darnold so far.  He had all the indications of being an elite NFL quarterback two years ago when he was drafted and I've seen nothing from that 20 year old kid to make me think he's taken any steps backwards since then.  The adversity he's faced and the comfort he now has in the current system bodes well for his future. 6-2 with that garbage offense, not bad.

SAR I

Well worn ground by now.  We'll see if he lives up to your elite expectations/predictions on 2020.  

[slimjasi]

26 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

 

I certainly trust that more than a guy who says "I'm a Jets fan who watched the games and he had no time to throw".  You remember the times when Beachum was hurt and our OL wasn't giving him much time.  You easily forget all the times he held onto the ball for roughly forever.  

This is where some of the advanced metrics get us all in trouble. All of these metrics are imperfect and have trouble adequately summarizing the performance of players or positions given how many variables are involved. Each metric really only gives you a piece of the puzzle and too often we look at a single metric as being indicative of overall performance when it really is incapable of any such feat. 

For example, if we are just talking about pass protection, football outsiders has us as the 30th best pass blocking line last season and PFF points out that our line allowed pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 26.7% of all pass attempts (this was the second worst rate in the entire league).
 
So, the question is, how do we square that with “Darnold had had the third most time in the league to throw.” The fact is, all three of these things are apparently true. So, which holds more weight? 

This is why I campaign so strongly against people just blindly quoting advanced metrics. Each of these metrics is inherently limited in certain situations and prone to bias. 

I will also add that, as an applied physicist, I can tell you that people in my field invent metrics all of the time that are popular for a few years and then end up being abandoned because of newly discovered confounding variables. 
 

TLDR - It’s really hard to summarize something as complicated as the overall performance of pass protection with a single number. 

[JetPotato]

14% more stepped up. Guaranteed. 

[CTM]

56 minutes ago, JiF said:

Yet, you didnt give Sam credit.  You sh*t on it.

Saying you want to get better on offense doesnt mean jack sh*t about Sam.  Even if he's not the guy, those things are still important.  And when you're the worst in the NFL in that dept., it doesnt take a genius to know you need to improve in those areas. 

Sam for the year was one of the worst QB's by any metric. What credit am I supposed to give him? Do you want me to find a 30th place ribbon?

re:bolded. Saying I want better offensive personal means I acknowledge the issue.  And again, if I thought Sam was the primary problem I'd be out beating the drum for Rivers or Stafford or Newton to be brought in as competition.  The fact that I'm not doing that says a lot about what I think, no?

[Jetsfan80]

10 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

For example, if we are just talking about pass protection, football outsiders has us as the 30th best pass blocking line last season and PFF points out that our line allowed pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 26.7% of all pass attempts (this was the second worst rate in the entire league).
 
So, the question is, how do we square that with “Darnold had had the third most time in the league to throw.” The fact is, all three of these things are apparently true. So, which holds more weight? 

 

I posted those FO numbers as well.  FO doesn't take time to throw into account.  All they can do is count the number of sacks + intentional grounding penalties and average it out based on the number of pass plays, down and distance to come up with their "Adjusted Sack Rate" metric.

[CTM]

oh good grief, the eye testers are in full effect successfully besting every strawman argument they create. Kudos

jftr time to throw at it's core = how long it takes sam to process what he's seeing and release the ball and includes pressures. I wouldn't call it an oline stat as sacks are explicitly excluded. I mentioned it originally to illustrate Sam being culpable in pressures, not to prove his oline was great. It wasn't, clearly

 

Time To Throw (TT)

Time to Throw measures the average amount of time elapsed from the time of snap to throw on every pass attempt for a passer (sacks excluded).

 

[sec101row23]

33 minutes ago, JiF said:

This was a useful thread and has me assessing the Jets needs this offseason.   Since we have an elite pass blocking OL, we really dont need to focus on OL or WR's.  Sam has plenty of time to throw and the WR's clearly have plenty of time to get open.  We might need 1 G or C to help in the running game.  Easy peasy. 

Now that math has proved the Jets have an elite pass blocking OL, we really need to shift our focus to the defense.  Pass rusher and CB's are now the priorities in the draft.  Ideally, we take an edge at #11.  Those next 3 picks are a mixture of CB's maybe DL too.

Once again the mental gymnastics is astounding.  ?

[slimjasi]

14 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

I posted those FO numbers as well.  FO doesn't take time to throw into account.  All they can do is count the number of sacks + intentional grounding penalties and average it out based on the number of pass plays, down and distance to come up with their "Adjusted Sack Rate" metric.

Sure, but again, there are also "time to throw" stats that paint the Jets offensive line in a terrible light. Just to reiterate:

Our line allowed pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 26.7% of all pass attempts (this was the second worst rate in the entire league)

So, on over one quarter of all pass attempts, our QB had 2.5 seconds or less to throw. That is simply atrocious. 

Combine that with this:

From Weeks 10-17, Sam Darnold took pressure on a higher % of dropbacks than any other qualified QB (41.9%), yet still ranked 10th in passer rating (93.3) & 11th in Y/A (7.3)

Then add in the "eye test" and you are not going to convince anyone that we had a good pass protecting OL last season. 

As someone who has been watching this team for three decades, I thought our OL play last year was the worst since at at least 2005. 

[sec101row23]

17 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Sure, but again, there are also "time to throw" stats that paint the Jets offensive line in a terrible light. Just to reiterate:

Our line allowed pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 26.7% of all pass attempts (this was the second worst rate in the entire league)

So, on over one quarter of all pass attempts, our QB had 2.5 seconds or less to throw. That is simply atrocious. 

Combine that with this:

From Weeks 10-17, Sam Darnold took pressure on a higher % of dropbacks than any other qualified QB (41.9%), yet still ranked 10th in passer rating (93.3) & 11th in Y/A (7.3)

Then add in the "eye test" and you are not going to convince anyone that we had a good pass protecting OL last season. 

As someone who has been watching this team for three decades, I thought our OL play last year was the worst since at at least 2005. 

The “time to throw” stat factors in scramble and roll out time, so while Sam was pressured on a high percentage of drop backs, he was able to evade and “buy time” to get rid of the ball.  

[slimjasi]

Just now, sec101row23 said:

The “time to throw” stat factors in scramble and roll out time, so while Sam was pressured on a high percentage of drop backs, he was able to evade and “buy time” to get rid of the ball.  

No doubt. This is another obvious point. 

I think the fact that the Jets QBs were pressured in 2.5 seconds or less on over 1/4th of their dropbacks tells you that Darnold/Siemian/Falk faced plenty of pressure. 

Also, just think back to how many times Darnold would make a guy miss in the pocket to get a throw off. Some of the best plays he made all season were him doing exactly this. 

I don't think any serious person would deem the Jets pass protection last year as good or acceptable. 

[slimjasi]

37 minutes ago, CTM said:

oh good grief, the eye testers are in full effect successfully besting every strawman argument they create. Kudos

jftr time to throw at it's core = how long it takes sam to process what he's seeing and release the ball and includes pressures. I wouldn't call it an oline stat as sacks are explicitly excluded. I mentioned it originally to illustrate Sam being culpable in pressures, not to prove his oline was great. It wasn't, clearly

 

Time To Throw (TT)

Time to Throw measures the average amount of time elapsed from the time of snap to throw on every pass attempt for a passer (sacks excluded).

 

Yes, and if you thought a little more about what this actually means before cumming in your pants as you posted some anti-Darnold stuff, you would realize that a big reason Darnold had "so much time" to throw is because he was constantly extending plays with his legs. 

[82nd Airborne]

Stay healthy and make smart decisions. 

[JustInFudge]

47 minutes ago, CTM said:

Sam for the year was one of the worst QB's by any metric. What credit am I supposed to give him? Do you want me to find a 30th place ribbon?

re:bolded. Saying I want better offensive personal means I acknowledge the issue.  And again, if I thought Sam was the primary problem I'd be out beating the drum for Rivers or Stafford or Newton to be brought in as competition.  The fact that I'm not doing that says a lot about what I think, no?

Sam sucks.  He's one of the worst QB's in the league.  Look at all these stats I have to prove he's not good at Football.  But I dont want to get rid of him!

Why dont you want to get rid of him if those are the facts?  

 

[CTM]

27 minutes ago, JiF said:

Sam sucks.  He's one of the worst QB's in the league.  Look at all these stats I have to prove he's not good at Football.  But I dont want to get rid of him!

Why dont you want to get rid of him if those are the facts?  

 

[CTM]

34 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Yes, and if you thought a little more about what this actually means before cumming in your pants as you posted some anti-Darnold stuff, you would realize that a big reason Darnold had "so much time" to throw is because he was constantly extending plays with his legs. 

Oh. so the 22 yo guy with 3 or 4 years of playing QB has no deficiency in processing speed. Cool story, sounds legit

[JustInFudge]

11 minutes ago, CTM said:

[slimjasi]

12 minutes ago, CTM said:

Oh. so the 22 yo guy with 3 or 4 years of playing QB has no deficiency in processing speed. Cool story, sounds legit

LOL. You are just confused. Nobody wrote that Darnold is a perfectly proficient at reading defenses. 

But, if you watched the Jets last year and didn't notice Darnold constantly avoiding rushers and extending plays with his legs, then I'm not sure what else I can add. 

You're right. Darnold had all day to throw. Definitely. 

[Patriot Killa]

4 hours ago, CTM said:

I provided context. Sam having a good back half of the season is not predictive of future success because he played a bunch of tin cans.

I feel like you are probably the only fair Darnold skeptic here. DVOA definitely has a huge place in modern analytics and much much more reliable than PFF.

Darnold has work to do. The team roster has even more work to do. It’s going to be all good. Sam is polishing each year. I always felt like he was going to be sort of a late bloomer being that he’s so young and still new to the position. Efficiently advancing onto the pro level with it may take a tad bit more time than guys who have been honing mechanics since they were 8 years old. FWIW, he’s done some impressive  work in his first two years when considering that, as well as the situation at hand with our lowly franchise.

i don’t think you are being unfair by calling out posts that glorify “week x - week z” when the whole picture is what really matters. His personnel will be better, he’ll have a 2nd year in the system, he’ll hopefully have better weapons and a decent OL. We’ll see where it goes.