Sam Darnold looking good in camp

[GreenCow]

1 minute ago, Lurker89 said:

What I've noticed when math comes into the equation (?) is that people will be looking at it from different angles and nobody comes out looking good.

Slats may be saying something along the lines of "to meet Darnold's completion percentage it would have to be on the same number of attempts"  IDFK

Either way this is line of discourse will only lead to further degradation..... Which I am all for ....please continue.

True.

[Lurker89]

10 minutes ago, slats said:

Never accuse me of being from Jersey again. You're close enough to being banned for lying about being a Bills fan. And you're not the first. We once had a guy here calling himself McGahee pretending to root for the Jets. So none of you are too clever, either. 

But anyway, you're pretending he completed passes that he missed in real life? See, that's the problem with Allen, he misses throws. I gave him ten for ten in imaginary extra throws. I explained what I did. 

See there's the explanation and why we should never bring math into the equation.

[GreenCow]

2 minutes ago, Lurker89 said:

See there's the explanation and why we should never bring math into the equation.

Yeah.

Doesn't make much sense though.

No one ever said if Allen threw 10 more times, he would reach Darnold's %.

I said the difference in completion percentage, is 10 completions.

Which it is.

And apparently that makes me a Bills fan (just don't tell my father-in-law).

[Lurker89]

14 minutes ago, slats said:

Never accuse me of being from Jersey again

When I did time in Buffalo (that's how I refer to my college days). I had a few friends who would call me Jersey Mike to rile me up..... I grew up around Poughkeepsie NY and later around Syracuse NY .... How dare you call me that, it was meant as a great insult and was taken as such. 

[Lurker89]

Does everyone understand now that math is bad... and wrong.... and evil.

No one should speak of math ....EVER!!!!

 

Unless they are evil .... Which I may very well be.... So....

More Math! More Math! More Math!

[munchmemory]

4 minutes ago, Lurker89 said:

Does everyone understand now that math is bad... and wrong.... and evil.

No one should speak of math ....EVER!!!!

 

Unless they are evil .... Which I may very well be.... So....

More Math! More Math! More Math!

[greengeek]

Does everyone understand now that math is bad... and wrong.... and evil.
No one should speak of math ....EVER!!!!
 
Unless they are evil .... Which I may very well be.... So....
More Math! More Math! More Math!

So scores and win/loss are off limits? Ok, QB is all about chin size (oops...math) or hair color (oops wavelength is a number) or how often they get laid (damn...another number). How about this: my favorite QB is really really good and yours is only really good...2:1 (sh1t).


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[Lurker89]

37 minutes ago, greengeek said:

So scores and win/loss are off limits? Ok, QB is all about chin size (oops...math) or hair color (oops wavelength is a number) or how often they get laid (damn...another number). How about this: my favorite QB is really really good and yours is only really good...2:1 (sh1t).


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That's not math those are numbers.... There a difference you know that.... don't be obtuse.....?

[Mogglez]

Josh Allen's completion percentage doesn't make or break the accuracy narrative, but that's why we have charts.

[GreenCow]

38 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

Josh Allen's completion percentage doesn't make or break the accuracy narrative, but that's why we have charts.

This is really interesting.

Do you have a link?

[Mogglez]

52 minutes ago, GreenCow said:

This is really interesting.

Do you have a link?

It's PFF.  Data from the premium subscription.  One of the few pieces of data that the website offers that isn't utter trash.

[Daddy Wang Doodle]

1 hour ago, Mogglez said:

Josh Allen's completion percentage doesn't make or break the accuracy narrative, but that's why we have charts.

Pretty cool. Any chance you could post Darnold's chart and if you're feeling chipper, maybe the top few?

[nico002]

29 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

It's PFF.  Data from the premium subscription.  One of the few pieces of data that the website offers that isn't utter trash.

Does that account for times where the throw needs to be in front/high to avoid the defender?

[Mogglez]

8 minutes ago, Daddy Wang Doodle said:

Pretty cool. Any chance you could post Darnold's chart and if you're feeling chipper, maybe the top few?

I had Sam's saved a while back.  I'm no longer a PFF subscriber (it was a trial).  I believe this is it:

Here's Kirk Cousins, who I also saved, for reference:

[Mogglez]

2 minutes ago, nico002 said:

Does that account for times where the throw needs to be in front/high to avoid the defender?

No, which is why this type of data can, admittedly, be a little funky.

[GreenCow]

45 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

It's PFF.  Data from the premium subscription.  One of the few pieces of data that the website offers that isn't utter trash.

Darn, that’s really cool.

Can you post Sam’s too?

Edit; just saw you did.

How does a throw into the stomach be “poor” instead of “good”?

[Mogglez]

40 minutes ago, GreenCow said:

Darn, that’s really cool.

Can you post Sam’s too?

Edit; just saw you did.

How does a throw into the stomach be “poor” instead of “good”?

I believe it works by calculating what percentage of your throws are in that area and then comes up with a grade by comparing it to other players percentages.  Basically, only 53% of Allen's throws are "on target/perfect" compared to Sam and Cousins, who throw a perfect ball 62% and 63.4% of the time, respectively, putting them in a higher tier.  

[JohnnyD]

Yeah.
Doesn't make much sense though.
No one ever said if Allen threw 10 more times, he would reach Darnold's %.
I said the difference in completion percentage, is 10 completions.
Which it is.
And apparently that makes me a Bills fan (just don't tell my father-in-law).

Actually you math is wrong Greencow. Taking a look at 2019, Darnold's completion percentage was more than 3.1٪ higher than Allen's. Even using Allens less than average 461 throws (and multiply by. 031) that works out to almost 14.5 extra completions over a season - not 10. Using an average QB that throws 34 times a game as a baseline, that would work out to almost 17 extra completions a year.

If you look at both seasons, Darnold's completion percentage is over 3.5% better than Allen's. That works out to be over 16 more completions a year assuming 461 throws. Using a normal amount of throws per game, that would work out to over 19 extra completions. Sorry to break the news to you.

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[Bruce Harper]

Wow that was really cool.
Thanks for the link.
Looks like Sam tested out at 52 mph in the video below.
I looked up Josh Allen's segment. He tested at 74 mph. They said it was the fastest they have ever recorded.
So over 20mph faster.
They then had Allen throw on the run.
While running, he threw 58 mph. So he threw faster while running, than Sam threw standing / throwing normally.
I don't necessarily think it means anything. But it's cool to watch.
They also said Allen's release was also the same quickness as Tom Brady's. Sam's release was a bit slower.
Here is the link. Allen's testing is first. Sam's starts at 6:40 in the video.
[/url]  

Too bad success in the NFL isn’t about how hard you throw. But he did complete 47% of his passes in junior college, so he has that going for him.


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[GreenCow]

20 minutes ago, JohnnyD said:

Actually you math is wrong Greencow. Taking a look at 2019, Darnold's completion percentage was more than 3.1٪ higher than Allen's. Even using Allens less than average 461 throws (and multiply by. 031) that works out to almost 14.5 extra completions over a season - not 10. Using an average QB that throws 34 times a game as a baseline, that would work out to almost 17 extra completions a year.

If you look at both seasons, Darnold's completion percentage is over 3.5% better than Allen's. That works out to be over 16 more completions a year assuming 461 throws. Using a normal amount of throws per game, that would work out to over 19 extra completions. Sorry to break the news to you.

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No.

https://forums.jetnation.com/topic/153245-sam-darnold-looking-good-in-camp/?do=findComment&comment=4586760

 

[GreenCow]

11 minutes ago, Bruce Harper said:

Too bad success in the NFL isn’t about how hard you throw. But he did complete 47% of his passes in junior college, so he has that going for him.


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Agreed.

[JohnnyD]

No.

https://forums.jetnation.com/topic/153245-sam-darnold-looking-good-in-camp/?do=findComment&comment=4586760

 

Greencow, sorry but your not being intellectually honest. Darnolds completion percentage was over 61.9% not 61% . That extra .9% over 461 passes works out to over four extra completions. Using any calculator that has all the buttons: 285 (ie. 14 extra completions than Allen actually had) / 461 = 61.822%. That is less than Darnold's real completion percentage of over 61.9%.

 

Therefore, Allen would have to complete more than 14 extra completions over the last season than he actually had match Darnold's completion percentage.

 

The same result would also be seen if you used an abacus or a slide rule. No offense, but maybe you should pick up your mic or enroll in Mathnasium.

 

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[GreenCow]

3 minutes ago, JohnnyD said:

Greencow, sorry but your not being intellectually honest. Darnolds completion percentage was over 61.9% not 61% . That extra .9% over 461 passes works out to over four extra completions. Using any calculator that has all the buttons: 285 (ie. 14 extra completions than Allen actually had) / 461 = 61.822%. That is less than Darnold's real completion percentage of 61.9%.

Therefore, Allen would have to complete more than 14 extra completions over the last season than he actually had match Darnold's completion percentage.

The same result would also be seen if you used an abacus or a slide rule. No offense, but maybe you should pick up your mic or enroll in Mathnasium.

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Lol. You’re breaking it down into the tenths of a percent. 

??‍♂️

Ok. If you want the extra 0.9%, then you can have it.

I think most people would find it trivial, but sure - throw in the extra 4 passes. It doesn’t really change the point.

If we want to label Allen as trash, then we must also accept that Sam is not far behind, as the difference is only 14 completions.

Less than 1 per game.

[GreenCow]

This is somewhat strange.

Allen is trash and less accurate, but Sam had more turnover worthy plays... despite playing 3 less games.
 

 

[JohnnyD]

Lol. You’re breaking it down into the tenths of a percent. 

Ok. If you want the extra 0.9%, then you can have it.
I think most people would find it trivial, but sure - throw in the extra 4 passes. It doesn’t really change the point.
If we want to label Allen as trash, then we must also accept that Sam is not far behind, as the difference is only 14 completions.
Less than 1 per game.

You were the one that was so adamant on the 10 completion (first 10 checkdowns) difference between Allan and Darnold per year. You must have mentioned it over 10 times in this thread and derided anyone you didn't agree with you.

A more accurate number over their two year careers is more than 19 extra completions adjusted for a full 16 game season. In the grand scheme of things, .9% might not be significant, but a 3.5% completion peecentage difference (over their careers) is not insignificant.

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[GreekJet]

I like Josh Allen a lot (wanted the Jets to draft him over Mayfield, Darnold, and Rosen), but even his biggest supporters will tell you he’s still got a long ways to go as a passer. His value right now is as a runner. 

[GreenCow]

8 hours ago, JohnnyD said:

 

 

You were the one that was so adamant on the 10 completion (first 10 checkdowns) difference between Allan and Darnold per year. You must have mentioned it over 10 times in this thread and derided anyone you didn't agree with you.

A more accurate number over their two year careers is more than 19 extra completions adjusted for a full 16 game season. In the grand scheme of things, .9% might not be significant, but a 3.5% completion peecentage difference (over their careers) is not insignificant.

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I understand. You’re breaking it down into the tenths of a percent, whereas I simply went to the whole number.

If you want the extra 0.9%, then you can have it.

I think most people would find it trivial but you can throw in the extra 4 passes. It doesn’t really change the point.

Here’s the point:

If we want to label Allen as trash, then we must also accept that Sam is not far behind, as the difference is only 14 completions.

Less than 1 per game.

Sam is less than 1 completion per game away from a “trash” inaccurate QB.

I’m not sure why you would attempt to use career stats when the rookie season is a clear outlier. Imagine projecting Peyton Manning’s career INT’s based on his awful rookie season. He would have shattered records.

If you still don’t understand what I’m saying, that’s ok. We can agree to disagree.

 

[GreenCow]

3 minutes ago, GreekJet said:

I like Josh Allen a lot (wanted the Jets to draft him over Mayfield, Darnold, and Rosen), but even his biggest supporters will tell you he’s still got a long ways to go as a passer. His value right now is as a runner. 

He definitely has to improve. Sam too. 

[greenwichjetfan]

I was actually kinda siding with GreenCow for the majority of this thread...felt like people were picking on him just because he didn't hate a division rival. But @johnnyd and @slats revealed his true troll.

I like Allen and was rooting for him and the Bills in the playoffs. He gets credit for what he does well - being an elite running QB and having an absolute rocket of an arm. Unfortunately, neither of those have translated into him being an above replacement level consistent passer yet - no matter how many times GreenCow claims "10 completions". 

[greenwichjetfan]

12 hours ago, Mogglez said:

I had Sam's saved a while back.  I'm no longer a PFF subscriber (it was a trial).  I believe this is it:

Here's Kirk Cousins, who I also saved, for reference:

 

This is dope. Would have loved to compare various passers. I'd imagine Mahomes is just teal blue everywhere. 

[GreenCow]

6 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

This is dope. Would have loved to compare various passers. I'd imagine Mahomes is just teal blue everywhere. 

Agreed. This chart makes me consider signing up for PFF.

[GreenCow]

20 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

I was actually kinda siding with GreenCow for the majority of this thread...felt like people were picking on him just because he didn't hate a division rival. But @johnnyd and @slats revealed his true troll.

I like Allen and was rooting for him and the Bills in the playoffs. He gets credit for what he does well - being an elite running QB and having an absolute rocket of an arm. Unfortunately, neither of those have translated into him being an above replacement level consistent passer yet - no matter how many times GreenCow claims "10 completions". 

What did I do that makes you feel that way?

JohnnyD simply went to the exact tenth of a percent, whereas I went to the whole number.

His is technically more accurate but I find it rather trivial. The difference is 1/4th of a pass per game.

Slats simply did the math wrong overall. (Edit: wrong is a harsh word. Slats did the math differently than I ever intended it)

In short, the difference between Allen and Sam’s completion % is 10 completions (if you go to the whole number) and 14 completions (if you go to the tenth of a percent).

Either way, 14 completions (over an entire season) is hardly enough to claim that he is trash while labeling Sam significantly better. It’s just silly.

Im sorry that you think I’m a troll. I’m really not. I don’t even love Allen that much, I just found myself defending him when everyone is trashing him SO hard.

 

[Philc1]

10 hours ago, Bruce Harper said:

Too bad success in the NFL isn’t about how hard you throw. But he did complete 47% of his passes in junior college, so he has that going for him.


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You guys are seriously citing his stats in Wyoming still?

[Philc1]

32 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

I was actually kinda siding with GreenCow for the majority of this thread...felt like people were picking on him just because he didn't hate a division rival. But @johnnyd and @slats revealed his true troll.

I like Allen and was rooting for him and the Bills in the playoffs. He gets credit for what he does well - being an elite running QB and having an absolute rocket of an arm. Unfortunately, neither of those have translated into him being an above replacement level consistent passer yet - no matter how many times GreenCow claims "10 completions". 

Agree.  I think Allen is a competent Cam Newton clone.  Unfortunately for him and the bills you can’t win a super bowl with that

[slats]

8 minutes ago, GreenCow said:

Im sorry that you think I’m a troll. I’m really not.

Thou dost protest too much. 

There's no way a Jet fan is defending Josh Allen in here like this unless they're related to him. They'd say their piece and then let it go, as I have many times about the player. I liked him next after Darnold and Mayfield, and would've wanted him if those guys went 1-2. A lot of the big draft guys here hated him, and I like seeing guys exceed expectations (which I believe Allen has), but he still has a long, long way to go as a thrower. You're posting all these one pass clips of him but, if you were actually a Jet fan, you'd know that there's probably about twice as many such videos showing Darnold making absolutely insane throws, too. 

On this board, you started one thread about a real dark time for the team, and another season prediction thread where you have the Bills sweeping the Jets, saying that the only reason they didn't last year was because the Bills sat their starters in week #17, dismissing that the Jets blew a 16-0 lead in the opener largely because they lost their best defensive player and their QB had mono. Really not the way a Jet fan would characterize last season. 

If you can't come clean under this screen name, I'll be happy to remove it and welcome you back as an out-of-the-closet Bills fan under a new name. I'd much rather debate honestly. 

Also, I saw your post prior to the edit. I'd love to see your closet full of Jets gear.