Zach’s “breakout” game

[rtnelson]

5 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

lmao.  Translation:  They really don't exist.  Especially not in the last 15+ years since the Ty Law rule went into effect, and it became much easier for QB's to show something in their rookie seasons.

Meanwhile, I have a list of dozens upon dozens of QB's who started off like Wilson did, or even performed better than Wilson has, who ended up sucking.

Yeah, it's tough for any QB to start their careers on a terrible team, get absolutely destroyed by a terrible OL in his first 4 starts to the point where he expects instant pressure every play because it was probably coming.

He is just now gaining trust in his OL again, so IMO the evaluation is just now starting.

Can you name a good QB that started on a team as terrible as the Jets that had a rookie season that would be considered successful?  Honestly curious.

[Jetsfan80]

So there you have it, @Hal N of Provo, as demonstrated above.  Pulling only the names from QB's since 2005 (or a little before), we have as possible examples:

• Ryan Tannehill
• Josh Allen
• Eli Manning
• Alex Smith

We can discuss these further if you'd like.

 

Meanwhile, highly drafted busts since around 2005 who started out sucking and continued to suck:

• JaMarcus Russell (Pick 1.1, 2007)
• Marcus Mariota (Pick 1.2, 2015)
• Vince Young (Pick 1.3, 2006)
• Blake Bortles (Pick 1.3, 2014)
• Mark Sanchez (Pick 1.5, 2009)
• Jake Locker (Pick 1.8, 2011)
• Matt Leinart (Pick 1.10, 2006)
• Blaine Gabbert (Pick 1.10, 2011)
• Christian Ponder (Pick 1.12, 2011)
• EJ Manuel (Pick 1.16, 2013)
• Josh Freeman (Pick 1.17, 2009)
• J.P. Losman (Pick 1.22, 2004)
• Brady Quinn (Pick 1.22, 2007)
• Brandon Weeden (Pick 1.22, 2012)
• Johnny Manziel (Pick 1.22, 2014)
• Jason Campbell (Pick 1.25, 2005)
• Tim Tebow (Pick 1.25, 2010)
• Paxton Lynch (Pick 1.26, 2016)
• Teddy Bridgewater (Pick 1.32, 2014)
• Kevin Kolb (Pick 2.36, 2007)
• Geno Smith (Pick 2.39, 2013)
• John Beck (Pick 2.40, 2007)
• Pat White (Pick 2.44, 2009)
• Jimmy Clausen (Pick 2.48, 2010)
• Christian Hackenberg (Pick 2.51, 2016)
• DeShone Kizer (Pick 2.52, 2017)
• Brock Osweiler (Pick 2.57, 2012)

Plus Kyle Boller (drafted in 2003 but saw the Ty Law rule come into effect)

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, rtnelson said:

Yeah, it's tough for any QB to start their careers on a terrible team, get absolutely destroyed by a terrible OL in his first 4 starts to the point where he expects instant pressure every play because it was probably coming.

He is just now gaining trust in his OL again, so IMO the evaluation is just now starting.

Can you name a good QB that started on a team as terrible as the Jets that had a rookie season that would be considered successful?  Honestly curious.

But the Jets offense isn't terrible.  At least people could make that excuse for Darnold.  They can't for Wilson.  The offense has largely been OK.

Stop blaming others for a QB's problems.  It doesn't work.  It didn't even work for Darnold, so why would those excuses make sense for Wilson, who at least has some help around him?  

News flash:  Highly drafted QB's tend to get drafted by bad teams.  Yet not all of them fail.  Some of them do quite well out of the gates.  Like Herbert and Burrow just last season.

[Hal N of Provo]

1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

In all seriousness, that guy was good in the highlights. The Jets should seriously track him down. 

lol.   I know it sounds ridiculous but it’s part of the Zach fan boy disillusion with dropped balls.  

Gunnar Romney (sp?) has had a hard time staying healthy but before that I thought he’d be a great UDFA.  Those guys at BYU were not athletic like Moore but they could body up a DB and come down with the ball and make it look easy and expected. 

I watched Mims stuff before the season and I thought he’d be the NFL version of that.  

I hope they draft a WR like what we all hoped Mims would be. The right WR makes a 50/50 ball a 80/20 ball if the QB is working it right - with no picks.

Anyway, I know it sounds crazy but I really believe it lol.  

[BallinPB]

Just now, rtnelson said:

Yeah, it's tough for any QB to start their careers on a terrible team, get absolutely destroyed by a terrible OL in his first 4 starts to the point where he expects instant pressure every play because it was probably coming.

He is just now gaining trust in his OL again, so IMO the evaluation is just now starting.

Can you name a good QB that started on a team as terrible as the Jets that had a rookie season that would be considered successful?  Honestly curious.

Andrew Luck.  His OLine was abysmal and not even close to the level of the Jets.  

Even though it might've also forced him into an early retirement LOL.

[Hal N of Provo]

7 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Meanwhile, I've put in the work previously to demonstrate the long list of QB's who suck and end up continuing to suck:

  

 

That does look like a lot of work.  Hats off to you for that one. 

[T0mShane]

Just now, Hal N of Provo said:

lol.   I know it sounds ridiculous but it’s part of the Zach fan boy disillusion with dropped balls.  

Gunnar Romney (sp?) has had a hard time staying healthy but before that I thought he’d be a great UDFA.  Those guys at BYU were not athletic like Moore but they could body up a DB and come down with the ball and make it look easy and expected. 

I watched Mims stuff before the season and I thought he’d be the NFL version of that.  

I hope they draft a WR like what we all hoped Mims would be. The right WR makes a 50/50 ball a 80/20 ball if the QB is working it right - with no picks.

Anyway, I know it sounds crazy but I really believe it lol.  

Eh. I think drops is a confidence thing and every rookie QB is going to sap an offense of confidence. I don’t think Zach throws a particularly catchable ball, and the receivers seem genuinely surprised when it’s heading their way. It’s just all disjointed and it impacts everyone. Life with a young QB.

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, BallinPB said:

Andrew Luck.  His OLine was abysmal and not even close to the level of the Jets.  

Yep.  People love to sh*t on Andrew Luck, but he began his career with a 23 TD / 18 INT season, with 4,374 yards, and led his team to an 11-5 record.  He followed that up with 2 more 11-5 seasons, one of which he threw for 40 TDs.  

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, Hal N of Provo said:

That does look like a lot of work.  Hats off to you for that one. 

I didn't do it for your compliments.  I did it to demonstrate that if I can do all that, you can at least name a QB or 2 that struggled out of the gates like Wilson and ended up succeeding after making your extremely condescending claim. 

I put in the work.  Can you put in a modicum of that?

[Hal N of Provo]

Just now, T0mShane said:

Eh. I think drops is a confidence thing and every rookie QB is going to sap an offense of confidence. I don’t think Zach throws a particularly catchable ball, and the receivers seem genuinely surprised when it’s heading their way. It’s just all disjointed and it impacts everyone. Life with a young QB.

Fair.   It does seem to surprise them sometimes and I guess there is a downside to a quick release.  Maybe that will fix itself in time.  

[T0mShane]

Just now, Hal N of Provo said:

Fair.   It does seem to surprise them sometimes and I guess there is a downside to a quick release.  Maybe that will fix itself in time.  

Would have already been resolved in practice if they don’t force him onto the field so early, imo. Hard to work on touch and timing when you’re facing live bullets.

[BallinPB]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

Yep.  People love to sh*t on Andrew Luck, but he began his career with a 23 TD / 18 INT season, with 4,374 yards, and led his team to an 11-5 record.  He followed that up with 2 more 11-5 seasons, one of which he threw for 40 TDs.  

Offense was a 34 year old Reggie Wayne, a young TY and that's it.  Nothing else.  

[Hal N of Provo]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

I didn't do it for your compliments.  I did it to demonstrate that if I can do all that, you can at least name a QB or 2 that struggled out of the gates like Wilson and ended up succeeding after making your extremely condescending claim. 

I put in the work.  Can you put in a modicum of that?

I’m a bad person.  I was really enjoying watching how much my lack of effort is annoying you, but I can also see this dance was danced too many times debating previous QBs.  

Time will tell.  
 

(Brett Farve.  I looked up a second one.   4 attempts 2 picks his rookie season.  Did it make the psychic list  @jgb

[BallinPB]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

I didn't do it for your compliments.  I did it to demonstrate that if I can do all that, you can at least name a QB or 2 that struggled out of the gates like Wilson and ended up succeeding after making your extremely condescending claim. 

I put in the work.  Can you put in a modicum of that?

 

Just now, Hal N of Provo said:

I’m a bad person.  I was really enjoying watching how much my lack of effort is annoying you, but I can also see this dance was danced too many times debating previous QBs.  

Time will tell.  
 

(Brett Farve.  I looked up a second one.   4 attempts 2 picks his rookie season.  Did it make the psychic list  @jgb

I did it for you guys.  Matthew Stafford.  1st season was a bad 10 games.  Injured 2nd season.  Broke out 3rd season.  

[jgb]

3 minutes ago, Hal N of Provo said:

I’m a bad person.  I was really enjoying watching how much my lack of effort is annoying you, but I can also see this dance was danced too many times debating previous QBs.  

Time will tell.  
 

(Brett Farve.  I looked up a second one.   4 attempts 2 picks his rookie season.  Did it make the psychic list  @jgb

Actually, you really did. Smelled you for a guy who would take the lazy way out and pick a dude who was a reserve player his rook year. Care to make it a 2-fer?

[jgb]

7 minutes ago, BallinPB said:

 

I did it for you guys.  Matthew Stafford.  1st season was a bad 10 games.  Injured 2nd season.  Broke out 3rd season.  

OK, now all Hal has to do is build on this example and make the case: (a) why it's a reasonably likely scenario; and (b) how Zach Wilson is more likely to be on the Stafford path than the list of dozens if not hundreds of QBs who started bad and stayed bad.

Hal, pal, we've done this before. Bring your helmet.

[BallinPB]

Just now, BallinPB said:

 

I did it for you guys.  Matthew Stafford.  1st season was a bad 10 games.  Injured 2nd season.  Broke out 3rd season.  

Looking again.  Stafford also sprinkled in a 422 yard 5 TD game in his rookie season.  I can't even dream about Zach doing that right now.  

[Hal N of Provo]

1 minute ago, jgb said:

Actually, you really did. Smelled you for a guy who would take the lazy way out and pick a dude who was a reserve player his rook year.

Part of the lame game and mental gymnastics is there are lots of career QBs you would crap on, so the pool you get back will be limited.  Only a HoF QB is good enough for the upper crust Jets fan. 
 

And yeah I put even less effort into it than you thought.   I couldn’t remember more than Farve was an exciting young QB who took risks. 

[slimjasi]

18 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

So there you have it, @Hal N of Provo, as demonstrated above.  Pulling only the names from QB's since 2005 (or a little before), we have as possible examples:

• Ryan Tannehill
• Josh Allen
• Eli Manning
• Alex Smith

We can discuss these further if you'd like.

 

Meanwhile, highly drafted busts since around 2005 who started out sucking and continued to suck:

• JaMarcus Russell (Pick 1.1, 2007)
• Marcus Mariota (Pick 1.2, 2015)
• Vince Young (Pick 1.3, 2006)
• Blake Bortles (Pick 1.3, 2014)
• Mark Sanchez (Pick 1.5, 2009)
• Jake Locker (Pick 1.8, 2011)
• Matt Leinart (Pick 1.10, 2006)
• Blaine Gabbert (Pick 1.10, 2011)
• Christian Ponder (Pick 1.12, 2011)
• EJ Manuel (Pick 1.16, 2013)
• Josh Freeman (Pick 1.17, 2009)
• J.P. Losman (Pick 1.22, 2004)
• Brady Quinn (Pick 1.22, 2007)
• Brandon Weeden (Pick 1.22, 2012)
• Johnny Manziel (Pick 1.22, 2014)
• Jason Campbell (Pick 1.25, 2005)
• Tim Tebow (Pick 1.25, 2010)
• Paxton Lynch (Pick 1.26, 2016)
• Teddy Bridgewater (Pick 1.32, 2014)
• Kevin Kolb (Pick 2.36, 2007)
• Geno Smith (Pick 2.39, 2013)
• John Beck (Pick 2.40, 2007)
• Pat White (Pick 2.44, 2009)
• Jimmy Clausen (Pick 2.48, 2010)
• Christian Hackenberg (Pick 2.51, 2016)
• DeShone Kizer (Pick 2.52, 2017)
• Brock Osweiler (Pick 2.57, 2012)

Plus Kyle Boller (drafted in 2003 but saw the Ty Law rule come into effect)

Right, but this doesn't quite suffice, unfortunately. The problem is that there are a lot of "in between guys" that don't fit neatly into a category and the examples we cite are anecdotal. I was discussing this yesterday with @RutgersJetFan , but what we all need to see is a proper statistical study of NFL QBs that tries to quantify how reliable of a statistical predictor a rookie season actually is for future success and/or failure. We need to answer the following questions:

1) If an NFL QB has a "good" rookie season, how likely is it that he goes on to have a successful NFL career as a longterm starter? 

2) If an NFL QB has a "poor" rookie season, how likely is that he becomes a bust? 

3) What other factors must we statistically control for to make the model meaningful? How do the probabilities in (1) and (2) compare when controlling for different factors? 

Even a simple model that answered the basic question "Is an NFL QB's rookie season a statistically significant predictor of future outcomes (good or bad)?" would help tremendously. 

You obviously would have to come up with some standard to define what "success" or "failure" are, but something like this should be doable. 

I have yet to see a proper study that has carefully looked at this. @RutgersJetFan mentioned a study he was familiar with that basically concluded that the rookie season is a wash (with some exceptions), but I have not seen it. 

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, Hal N of Provo said:

Part of the lame game and mental gymnastics is there are lots of career QBs you would crap on, so the pool you get back will be limited.  Only a HoF QB is good enough for the upper crust Jets fan. 
 

And yeah I put even less effort into it than you thought.   I couldn’t remember more than Farve was an exciting young QB who took risks. 

That's a retreat, not an argument. Reset, re-center, try again. We'll make you a darksider Jets fan yet.

[FidelioJet]

10 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I didn't do it for your compliments.  I did it to demonstrate that if I can do all that, you can at least name a QB or 2 that struggled out of the gates like Wilson and ended up succeeding after making your extremely condescending claim. 

I put in the work.  Can you put in a modicum of that?

This is a very weak argument.  

In is a well established fact, with countless examples of rookie struggling their first year to go on to be very good NFL QB's.  This idea that because the rules are more laxed, somehow rookies don't struggle is ridiculous....and based on nothing...at all.

Of the top 10 QB's this year, only 4 of them started their rookie year...

2 of them snuggled mightily (Stafford and Allen)

And the other 2 are running QB's that had that to fall back on early in their careers...and even then, struggled.

Now, this fact doesn't mean Zach is going to be successful but that fact that he wasn't good 5 of his first 7 games doesn't mean anything....He's showing real progress and that's all you can be asking form...

 

 

[Hal N of Provo]

1 minute ago, jgb said:

OK, now all Hal has to do is build on this example and build a case (a) why it's a reasonably likely scenario; and (b) how Zach Wilson is more likely to be on the Stafford path than the list of dozens if not hundreds of QBs who started bad and stay bad.

Hal, pal, we've done this before. Bring your helmet.

I’ll tell you a scenario:

Young QB who wants to sling it- and has the talent to - is trying to play like a game manager.  

He and his coaches are paying the price now to turn the gunslinger into a game manager who can also sling it to open up the slow stuff.  

the young QB isn’t getting the training wheels on.  He’s being exposed to real defenses. The young QB has a history of being great at processing, but isn’t there at the NFL level yet.  There reason to believe in time with reps he’ll process the NFL game fast as well.  
 

He plays for a fan base scared to love again after too many heart breaks, but his boyish good looks and boy band hair have the ability to captivate them in time with good play.  @jgb and @Jetsfan80

See the QB play and skills grow and both hang his poster one day with a tear in their eye.  

[jgb]

3 minutes ago, Hal N of Provo said:

I’ll tell you a scenario:

Young QB who wants to sling it- and has the talent to - is trying to play like a game manager.  

He and his coaches are paying the price now to turn the gunslinger into a game manager who can also sling it to open up the slow stuff.  

the young QB isn’t getting the training wheels on.  He’s being exposed to real defenses. The young QB has a history of being great at processing, but isn’t there at the NFL level yet.  There reason to believe in time with reps he’ll process the NFL game fast as well.  
 

He plays for a fan base scared to love again after too many heart breaks, but his boyish good looks and boy band hair have the ability to captivate them in time with good play.  @jgb and @Jetsfan80

See the QB play and skills grow and both hang his poster one day with a tear in their eye.  

Nope. My position has nothing to do with Zach Wilson at all. It's his stats weighed against how many who started their careers similarly to him have gone onto success. The odds are in my favor. And I, in turn, always favor the odds.

I notice you reverted to "Jets fans hate him for personal characteristics" bigotry angle again. You apologized last time so I let it go. But now it's missile lock. I'd like to hear your thoughts on the relative tolerance of New York City, melting pot of the world versus, say, Provo, Utah.

[peekskill68]

1 hour ago, 65 Toss Power Trap said:

What's interesting is, Zac can definitely work on things that Mac Jones (or other QBs) do well. Like any of us. But Mac can't work on "superior arm talent." 

No argument.  But just curious, other than that crazy throw he made during his pro day, what superior arm talent have we seen from him vs. Jones?  Have you seen any "wow" throws like we routinely see from top arm talents like Rodgers or Mahomes (plus maybe Herbert)?

[Jetsfan80]

26 minutes ago, Hal N of Provo said:

I’m a bad person.  I was really enjoying watching how much my lack of effort is annoying you, but I can also see this dance was danced too many times debating previous QBs.  

Time will tell.  
 

(Brett Farve.  I looked up a second one.   4 attempts 2 picks his rookie season.  Did it make the psychic list  @jgb

 

I asked for an example since the Ty Law rule went into effect in 2005.  Brett Favre might as well have been playing a completely different game.  I fully admit it was a lot harder to determine if a young QB "had it" or not back in Favre's day until late in his 2nd season, sometimes 3rd season.  That's not the case any longer.

[Hal N of Provo]

8 minutes ago, jgb said:

Nope. My position has nothing to do with Zach Wilson at all. It's his stats weighed against how many who started their careers similarly to him have gone onto success. The odds are in my favor. And I, in turn, always favor the odds.

I notice you reverted to "Jets fans hate him for personal characteristics" bigotry angle again. You apologized last time so I let it go. But now it's missile lock. I'd like to hear your thoughts on the relative tolerance of New York City, melting pot of the world versus, say, Provo, Utah.

Lol.  Nope.  No bigotry at all.   I’m joking like others have joked because it’s funny (to some) but it has nothing to do with anything.  
 

You have watched lots of hot shot college QBs come in and fail.   That’s football stuff.   I don’t blame those who see it again here as well.  I think some are going to wait to see absolute proof it’s not happening again.  

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, Hal N of Provo said:

Lol.  Nope.  No bigotry at all.   I’m joking like others have joked because it’s funny (to some) but it has nothing to do with anything.  
 

You have watched lots of hot shot college QBs come in and fail.   That’s football stuff.   I don’t blame those who see it again here as well.  I think some are going to wait to see absolute proof it’s not happening again.  

You have disarmed me with your supplication. Lethality mode, disengaged. 

[jgb]

9 minutes ago, peekskill68 said:

No argument.  But just curious, other than that crazy throw he made during his pro day, what superior arm talent have we seen from him vs. Jones?  Have you seen any "wow" throws like we routinely see from top arm talents like Rodgers or Mahomes (plus maybe Herbert)?

Once in little league, I threw a laser from the left field wall to the catcher on the short hop. Right under the sliding baserunner's arm and into the catcher's glove, tag, man out game won. I was the worst thrower on the team (hence why no infield). But I flashed that day, my friends. Oh my did I flash.

[ultraJETfan]

9 minutes ago, peekskill68 said:

No argument.  But just curious, other than that crazy throw he made during his pro day, what superior arm talent have we seen from him vs. Jones?  Have you seen any "wow" throws like we routinely see from top arm talents like Rodgers or Mahomes (plus maybe Herbert)?

Yeah dude. The Carolina game. The Titans game to name a couple. Did you just start watching in November or something?

[FidelioJet]

46 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

So there you have it, @Hal N of Provo, as demonstrated above.  Pulling only the names from QB's since 2005 (or a little before), we have as possible examples:

• Ryan Tannehill
• Josh Allen
• Eli Manning
• Alex Smith

We can discuss these further if you'd like.

 

Meanwhile, highly drafted busts since around 2005 who started out sucking and continued to suck:

• JaMarcus Russell (Pick 1.1, 2007)
• Marcus Mariota (Pick 1.2, 2015)
• Vince Young (Pick 1.3, 2006)
• Blake Bortles (Pick 1.3, 2014)
• Mark Sanchez (Pick 1.5, 2009)
• Jake Locker (Pick 1.8, 2011)
• Matt Leinart (Pick 1.10, 2006)
• Blaine Gabbert (Pick 1.10, 2011)
• Christian Ponder (Pick 1.12, 2011)
• EJ Manuel (Pick 1.16, 2013)
• Josh Freeman (Pick 1.17, 2009)
• J.P. Losman (Pick 1.22, 2004)
• Brady Quinn (Pick 1.22, 2007)
• Brandon Weeden (Pick 1.22, 2012)
• Johnny Manziel (Pick 1.22, 2014)
• Jason Campbell (Pick 1.25, 2005)
• Tim Tebow (Pick 1.25, 2010)
• Paxton Lynch (Pick 1.26, 2016)
• Teddy Bridgewater (Pick 1.32, 2014)
• Kevin Kolb (Pick 2.36, 2007)
• Geno Smith (Pick 2.39, 2013)
• John Beck (Pick 2.40, 2007)
• Pat White (Pick 2.44, 2009)
• Jimmy Clausen (Pick 2.48, 2010)
• Christian Hackenberg (Pick 2.51, 2016)
• DeShone Kizer (Pick 2.52, 2017)
• Brock Osweiler (Pick 2.57, 2012)

Plus Kyle Boller (drafted in 2003 but saw the Ty Law rule come into effect)

Is your point most QB's bust?  That is correct....without question. Zach Wilson may very well bust

But his performance to-date is not the determining factor -  at all...There are just far too many variables when dealing with each situation. 

What we know is Zach Wilson is getting better.   That is what we should be looking for - and to me that's very exciting.

[Hael]

17 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

This is a very weak argument.  

In is a well established fact, with countless examples of rookie struggling their first year to go on to be very good NFL QB's.  This idea that because the rules are more laxed, somehow rookies don't struggle is ridiculous....and based on nothing...at all.

Of the top 10 QB's this year, only 4 of them started their rookie year...

2 of them snuggled mightily (Stafford and Allen)

And the other 2 are running QB's that had that to fall back on early in their careers...and even then, struggled.

Now, this fact doesn't mean Zach is going to be successful but that fact that he wasn't good 5 of his first 7 games doesn't mean anything....He's showing real progress and that's all you can be asking form...

 

 

 

42 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

So there you have it, @Hal N of Provo, as demonstrated above.  Pulling only the names from QB's since 2005 (or a little before), we have as possible examples:

• Ryan Tannehill
• Josh Allen
• Eli Manning
• Alex Smith

Of those, i’d argue that Josh Allen and Tannehill both showed a lot of promise as rookies (more than ZW has to date).  Ditto for Stafford.  There were a number of legit games as rookies where you could see something approaching their potential, that made you stop and take note.  Tannehill kinda stalled though in year 2-3, which is pretty rare.  Usually the good qbs get on a right path and just keep ascending.

Eli’s first year was really atrocious, and I don’t remember it that well.  Alex Smith is probably the best example of a true late bloomer (maybe Palmer as well).  It took him years to develop (which was strange given his predraft evaluation and IQ) and he had bust status for a long, long time.  

[FidelioJet]

11 minutes ago, peekskill68 said:

No argument.  But just curious, other than that crazy throw he made during his pro day, what superior arm talent have we seen from him vs. Jones?  Have you seen any "wow" throws like we routinely see from top arm talents like Rodgers or Mahomes (plus maybe Herbert)?

Yes. There are plenty of examples.  It's obvious.  The ball jumps out of his hands.  

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Yes. There are plenty of examples.  It's obvious.  The ball jumps out of his hands.  

JaMarcus Russell can throw it 70 yards from his knees; expecting big things!

Also, I'm old enough to remember the knock on Manning being that his arm strength might top out at 60 yards (as opposed to the clearly better prospect in Ryan Leaf)

Chad Kelly is on video throwing it 76 yards. Feleipe Franks threw it 76 yards in competition. Cardale Jones is on film winning a similar competition at 74 yards. And let's not forget Joe Milton who can get 80+.

And not sure how far he can throw it, but Paxton Lynch blew all the records away for measured speed so he probably has the biggest arm.

Take it from me, you'll be seeing all these guys (Russell, Kelly, Franks, Jones, Milton, Lynch) as the future of the position and tearing up the NFL any day now.

[Hal N of Provo]

5 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

I asked for an example since the Ty Law rule went into effect in 2005.  Brett Favre might as well have been playing a completely different game.  I fully admit it was a lot harder to determine if a young QB "had it" or not back in Favre's day until late in his 2nd season, sometimes 3rd season.  That's not the case any longer.

So a small sample size of 15 years of highly drafted rookie QBs cut down much smaller to an even smaller sample of those who became superstars?

That seems like an interesting exercise that might yield to valuable ideas but that also runs a high risk of leading to faulty conclusions.  

There is simply not enough data with all the variables.  NE and SF have WAY better situation than the others first round rookies, right?   so that needs to be worked in.  Is there a running game or not?  How is the teams defense, which will lead to opportunities.  

You can’t put too much weight from that data, whatever it is. 

[FidelioJet]

2 minutes ago, Hael said:

 

Of those, i’d argue that Josh Allen and Tannehill both showed a lot of promise as rookies (more than ZW has to date).  Ditto for Stafford.  There were a number of legit games as rookies where you could see something approaching their potential, that made you stop and take note.  Tannehill kinda stalled though in year 2-3, which is pretty rare.  Usually the good qbs get on a right path and just keep ascending.

Eli’s first year was really atrocious, and I don’t remember it that well.  Alex Smith is probably the best example of a true late bloomer (maybe Palmer as well).  It took him years to develop (which was strange given his predraft evaluation and IQ) and he had bust status for a long, long time.  

You did watch the second half of the Titans game, right?

The first half of this game - his 7th as a pro...was also impressive - 3 TD's, no Int's - over 70% completion%. Zach's first three games he had NO chance....

Zach has had his moments showing his potential.  He has.a very long way to go, no doubt...

but this place mostly refuses to see the good and only focuses on the bad.  It's unfortunate, because this could be an exciting place right now - with the way Zach is growing.