Zach Wilson - Positive Vibes Only Thread

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, PorP said:

Well... please tell me all about the next comings justin Herbert, Matty ice and David carr's stats versus the Broncos....

Herbert had 57 passes for 238 and a ypa of 4.2, More than 2x the attempts than ZW and less ypa. Herbert also had 0 td's but did throw a pick that Zach didn't. 

Seems like contrary to even my own opinion,  ZW played better than he's getting credit for. 

This would be meaningful if Zach hadn’t also sucked against GB too.  For those guys it’s more of an anomaly (though Matt Ryan is of course old and toast)

[JETS SB]

6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

This would be meaningful if Zach hadn’t also sucked against GB too.  For those guys it’s more of an anomaly (though Matt Ryan is of course old and toast)

This is definitely the guy who wants Joe Flacco to be our QB because he throws the ball 50 times and 300 yards per game. Won 27-10 and no TOs and the QB sucked. Ahead almost the entire game. Bring back Flacco!!! Or better yet Sam Darnold! 

[PorP]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

This would be meaningful if Zach hadn’t also sucked against GB too.  For those guys it’s more of an anomaly (though Matt Ryan is of course old and toast)

I don't disagree with you. As I indicated I was getting down on ZW till I heard something from Asman that made me go research.  Above and below are just the facts I found,  not trying to change your POV per se.   Herbert and Carr were versus the Broncos were anamolies and that's exactly what I was pointing out. Broncos D messed them up and Herbert was at home not suffering a mile high like us. 

On green bay... real hard to put that on Zach,  he should have 1 or 2 td passes in that game that got stopped at the 1, had a ypa of 6.1. Further I would say the fact he only had 18 attempts is a clear statement the CS planned to beat GB on the ground. 

He has a passer rating near 74 and 73 versus the #1 and #2 pass defenses in the league. 

 

[Augustiniak]

4 minutes ago, PorP said:

I don't disagree with you. As I indicated I was getting down on ZW till I heard something from Asman that made me go research.  Above and below are just the facts I found,  not trying to change your POV per se.   Herbert and Carr were versus the Broncos were anamolies and that's exactly what I was pointing out. Broncos D messed them up and Herbert was at home not suffering a mile high like us. 

On green bay... real hard to put that on Zach,  he should have 1 or 2 td passes in that game that got stopped at the 1, had a ypa of 6.1. Further I would say the fact he only had 18 attempts is a clear statement the CS planned to beat GB on the ground. 

He has a passer rating near 74 and 73 versus the #1 and #2 pass defenses in the league. 

 

3 of 4 games ZW has played on the road against tough defenses.  Would be nice to see him go nuts at home. 

[PorP]

5 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

3 of 4 games ZW has played on the road against tough defenses.  Would be nice to see him go nuts at home. 

Yes! 

And despite it being BB, they don't have JC Jackson and unlike GB/ Denver, Rats are 12th defending the pass and 25th defending run. 

It should be a decent opportunity for ZW to show us he can QB!

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, JETS SB said:

This is definitely the guy who wants Joe Flacco to be our QB because he throws the ball 50 times and 300 yards per game. Won 27-10 and no TOs and the QB sucked. Ahead almost the entire game. Bring back Flacco!!! Or better yet Sam Darnold! 

Actually I don't want Flacco under center.  I just want Zach Wilson not to suck.  A lot to ask, I know!

You're in full reeeeeeee mode, sir.  Clearly a guy who knows humor!!!

[fullblast]

Some wild numbers

Not having reviewed any film, it does seem that Zach throws the ball away a ton when he’s pressured (after scrambling 15 yards backwards), which definitely contributes to the low completion % and YPA. Those in the know say performance in a clean pocket is the better indicator for success, so maybe a silver lining to be had here.

[jgb]

14 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

? 

That’s all we can ask for. One way or another we need to end the debate. If he’s the guy then we want 90% of our fans agreeing with it, if he’s not the guy then we want 90% of our fans seeing that too so that we can move on. Ups and downs, flashes and crashes, victories but doubts about his performance/game script, offensive line excuses, etc. all need to be put to rest. 

It probably lasted about one year too long with Darnold. But JD saw enough to know it was time to move on, and he did so.  By now we should all trust that JD will make the right decisions for this franchise including with the QB.

Agree but you’ll never hit 90% of the fan base ready to move on from a highly-drafted QB until he is off the team. Hope dies hard.

[jetstream23]

6 hours ago, jgb said:

Agree but you’ll never hit 90% of the fan base ready to move on from a highly-drafted QB until he is off the team. Hope dies hard.

[slimjasi]

16 hours ago, fullblast said:

Some wild numbers

Not having reviewed any film, it does seem that Zach throws the ball away a ton when he’s pressured (after scrambling 15 yards backwards), which definitely contributes to the low completion % and YPA. Those in the know say performance in a clean pocket is the better indicator for success, so maybe a silver lining to be had here.

That is pretty nuts. 

Yes, he seems to almost always throw the ball away when pressured. 

I think the clean pocket numbers are more important, but I also think he has to get a lot better under pressure. 

[jetstream23]

17 hours ago, fullblast said:

Some wild numbers

Not having reviewed any film, it does seem that Zach throws the ball away a ton when he’s pressured (after scrambling 15 yards backwards), which definitely contributes to the low completion % and YPA. Those in the know say performance in a clean pocket is the better indicator for success, so maybe a silver lining to be had here.

 

To me, this almost screams that he's being coached to not throw the INT and not take an intentional grounding.  Maybe he's bailing on the play too early and throwing it away?  Maybe the coaches, for once sitting on leads in recent games (unfamiliar territory in recent years), are fine with that rather than him going all Brett Favre to make something out of nothing and throw a Pick-6?

Strange stats for a guy who is actually known for having the arm talent and scramble ability to turn busted plays into something productive.

[jetstream23]

I also heard a stat the other day that Denver has only given up 1 passing TD since Week 1.  Anyone know if that's true?  That Zach Wilson threw the same number of TDs vs Denver as Justin Herbert (zero).

[SuicidalSince98]

16 hours ago, fullblast said:

Some wild numbers

Not having reviewed any film, it does seem that Zach throws the ball away a ton when he’s pressured (after scrambling 15 yards backwards), which definitely contributes to the low completion % and YPA. Those in the know say performance in a clean pocket is the better indicator for success, so maybe a silver lining to be had here.

He could just take the sack and not attempt the pass which would not negatively affect his passing “stats”. 
 

Also, how they defining pressure? Wilson is escaping from dead end situations and allowing us to live another down by throwing it away 

[Biggs]

18 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

This would be meaningful if Zach hadn’t also sucked against GB too.  For those guys it’s more of an anomaly (though Matt Ryan is of course old and toast)

He didn't suck against Green Bay.   He lead two 3rd quarter drives that broke the game open.  

[slimjasi]

Just now, SuicidalSince98 said:

 

Also, how they defining pressure? Wilson is escaping from dead end situations and allowing us to live another down by throwing it away 

This was definitely true in Denver, but the big thing I want to see Zach improve on is finding guys down the field AFTER escaping pressure. 

He is legitimately very good at avoiding pass-rushers, but he rarely follows up his Houdini magic by finding a WR down the field. Not turning the ball over is great, but we will need more completions down the field if we want to be a a playoff team. 

[slimjasi]

1 minute ago, Biggs said:

He didn't suck against Green Bay.   He lead two 3rd quarter drives that broke the game open.  

I'd say he sucked in the first half, but was good in the second half (which, is a LOT better than the other way around)

[slimjasi]

4 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

I also heard a stat the other day that Denver has only given up 1 passing TD since Week 1.  Anyone know if that's true?  That Zach Wilson threw the same number of TDs vs Denver as Justin Herbert (zero).

That is true. 

Their pass defense is filthy. 

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, Biggs said:

He didn't suck against Green Bay.   He lead two 3rd quarter drives that broke the game open.  

Oh wow.  TWO whole drives???

[Biggs]

1 minute ago, slimjasi said:

I'd say he sucked in the first half, but was good in the second half (which, is a LOT better than the other way around)

Guess which team has the No. 1 pass D in the NFL.  Hint Denver is No. 2.  

[SuicidalSince98]

5 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

This was definitely true in Denver, but the big thing I want to see Zach improve on is finding guys down the field AFTER escaping pressure. 

He is legitimately very good at avoiding pass-rushers, but he rarely follows up his Houdini magic by finding a WR down the field. Not turning the ball over is great, but we will need more completions down the field if we want to be a a playoff team. 

It’s tough, small sample size and playing elite pass Defenses in a cover 2 shell. They will come. I don’t disagree. He needs to improve.

[slimjasi]

5 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Guess which team has the No. 1 pass D in the NFL.  Hint Denver is No. 2.  

Right. 

I think it was expected we would pound the ball the past two weeks and limit the throws. 

[Biggs]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Oh wow.  TWO whole drives???

In the third quarter when we broke the game open.  Based on actually NFL games it was an ass wupping.  Tom Brady lead 1 TD drive all game against the Packers.

[slimjasi]

7 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Oh wow.  TWO whole drives???

He only threw the ball 18 times in GB, so that would be pretty good in terms of scoring production for a guy playing the "game manager" role

[Biggs]

1 minute ago, slimjasi said:

He only threw the ball 18 times in GB, so that would be pretty good in terms of scoring production for a guy playing the "game manager" role

He also came up big on both drives.  Set his feet and delivered some nice passes after being under a lot of pressure early.  He didn't do as well in the Denver game.   The pressure got to him.  Although he was under extreme pressure on almost every pass attempt. 

[Jet Nut]

.

 

[slimjasi]

Just now, Biggs said:

He also came up big on both drives.  Set his feet and delivered some nice passes after being under a lot of pressure early. 

This is one of the things I really like about Wilson. 

He tends to get better as the game goes along (the opposite of Darnold) and I suspect he is good at putting bad plays/throws in his rearview mirror. 

I would love to see him start some of these games faster, however. That's a big thing I'm looking for going forward. 

[football guy]

15 hours ago, fullblast said:

Some wild numbers

Not having reviewed any film, it does seem that Zach throws the ball away a ton when he’s pressured (after scrambling 15 yards backwards), which definitely contributes to the low completion % and YPA. Those in the know say performance in a clean pocket is the better indicator for success, so maybe a silver lining to be had here.

As you're alluding to, his alarmingly low production in the face of pressure needs context and its also why I think these metrics have become increasingly difficult to follow because every analytical provider grades things differently just as NFL teams do. 

1. Zach's instinct is to play school yard football. Often times last year and in college he did so way too early in order to attempt the big play off-script regardless if there was pressure or not. Anyone paying attention this year can see that he's throwing from within the pocket much more frequently, and he's been extremely efficient throwing from within the pocket when kept clean. If I saw these splits and the tape showed that he was consistently bailing way too early or he looked scared in the pocket, I would be nervous. So far this year I've seen him scramble with the presence of mind to buy time and/or throw it away and avoid the negative plays. It can look nerve-wracking but he's addressed his process in those situations (knowing he has room/athleticism to evade, give him one look to see if he has something, then throw away) which adds good context as well. 
2. The turnover-worthy plays charted by PFF are skeptical. For instance, they chart Conklin's drop-INT against PIT as a turnover worthy play. Is this really something that should be placed on the QB? Naturally the ball was turned over, but Zach throwing the ball a little high, hitting the guy in the hands, and bouncing in the air should not be charted that way. Similarly, they charted that insane Minkah Fitzpatrick play where Zach was throwing it away as a TWP. Sure, Minkah almost made an insane play, but 99% of safeties are not catching that... there's no reason why that should be charted as a TWP just because Minkah almost intercepted a ball that was being thrown out of bounds. 
3. PFF defines a thrown away ball as a ball purposefully thrown out of play. As we've seen, Zach has "thrown away" a lot more balls than 7 while under pressure, which is what PFF has charted. The difference is whether its in bounds or not. A number of throws that he has made under pressure are "targeted" at a receiver but thrown in areas that cannot be turned over. The team views this as a throw away. You're trying to give your guy a chance to make an incredible play - even if its highly low percentage - without any threat of turning the ball over. 
4. The same analytics people who put so much weight into numbers/stats also fail to acknowledge that Denver and Green Bay are among the top 5 defenses in both coverage efficiency and pass rush productivity. Buffalo is right up there with them, and New England will be tough as well, but things should start to open up. Chicago, Minnesota, Detroit, Jacksonville, Seattle, and Miami make up 7 of our final 8 games, all of which are average-to-below average in coverage. If we reach the end of the season and his numbers still look like this, then I would say its a cause for concern (Jets still won't make a change). But its way too early right now. Need to see a larger sample before jumping to conclusions one way (his pass efficiency in a clean pocket) or another (under pressure). 

 

[jetstream23]

The Jets have faced the NFL's two best Pass Defenses in recent weeks.

Additionally, check out who is ranked 13th.

 

[Irish Jet]

2 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

The Jets have faced the NFL's two best Pass Defenses in recent weeks.

Or they're the top ranked pass defences because they've faced the Jets. 

[slimjasi]

10 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

Or they're the top ranked pass defences because they've faced the Jets. 

Eh, weren't they both elite before the Jets game? Hasn't Denver only given up like one passing TD all season or something? Including none to Justin Herbert? LOL

[jetstream23]

2 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Eh, weren't they both elite before the Jets game? Hasn't Denver only given up like one passing TD all season or something? Including none to Justin Herbert? LOL

They were.

He's being a bit facetious..... but only a bit. ?

The Jets intentionally emphasized the rushing game against those opponents, threw zero INTs, and won both games.  Sounds like good game planning and coaching to me.

 

 

[jason423]

1 hour ago, jetstream23 said:

 

To me, this almost screams that he's being coached to not throw the INT and not take an intentional grounding.  Maybe he's bailing on the play too early and throwing it away?  Maybe the coaches, for once sitting on leads in recent games (unfamiliar territory in recent years), are fine with that rather than him going all Brett Favre to make something out of nothing and throw a Pick-6?

Strange stats for a guy who is actually known for having the arm talent and scramble ability to turn busted plays into something productive.

I think this is accurate. The staff is more or less treating him like 2009 Sanchez. Like Sanchez (though this was more 2010 Sanchez) Wilson has gotten away with some real bad decisions under pressure but most of his under pressure stuff is going deep toward the sidelines where its harder to get the int than when he heaves it across his body in the middle of the field. Part of the pressure performance are his instincts. What made him so good in that Titans game last year is what makes him awful at other times. He runs all over the place at the sign of pressure and then tries to find a guy deep. Davis is probably the only player with enough experience to get that and he was out for some of last weeks game. On days when nobody shakes free you get what happened last week. 

Part of the success of his clean stats are also the scheme. Jets are throwing a ton of screens (25% of his passes are behind the LOS while the NFL average is around 15%) and quick short slants where there is no time for him to consider extending a play or the rush to get there. Not the easiest passes but as long as he doesnt sail them they are safe.

My feeling is he has the arm talent to throw the Jets back into a game if he gets a good week.  He also probably has the potential to take a game where the team is down 10 and turn it into a down 24 situation on other weeks.

He doesnt seem to mind the handcuffs so for now its all working and hopefully he can get coached up on pocket presence and playing in a more structured offense in the future. As of right now I'd say he has the best arm of any of the recent guys the Jets tried to develop. He also has the worst pocket awareness and touch on his passes. They need him to develop since sustainable football is tied to QB play, but for this year they should be able to take him along very slowly and still make the playoffs.   

[SuicidalSince98]

Honestly, the thing Zach needs to improve is his accuracy. 

[Warfish]

27 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

Or they're the top ranked pass defences because they've faced the Jets. 

Cause - > Effect

Effect <- Cause

[jetstream23]

12 minutes ago, jason423 said:

I think this is accurate. The staff is more or less treating him like 2009 Sanchez. Like Sanchez (though this was more 2010 Sanchez) Wilson has gotten away with some real bad decisions under pressure but most of his under pressure stuff is going deep toward the sidelines where its harder to get the int than when he heaves it across his body in the middle of the field. Part of the pressure performance are his instincts. What made him so good in that Titans game last year is what makes him awful at other times. He runs all over the place at the sign of pressure and then tries to find a guy deep. Davis is probably the only player with enough experience to get that and he was out for some of last weeks game. On days when nobody shakes free you get what happened last week. 

Part of the success of his clean stats are also the scheme. Jets are throwing a ton of screens (25% of his passes are behind the LOS while the NFL average is around 15%) and quick short slants where there is no time for him to consider extending a play or the rush to get there. Not the easiest passes but as long as he doesnt sail them they are safe.

My feeling is he has the arm talent to throw the Jets back into a game if he gets a good week.  He also probably has the potential to take a game where the team is down 10 and turn it into a down 24 situation on other weeks.

He doesnt seem to mind the handcuffs so for now its all working and hopefully he can get coached up on pocket presence and playing in a more structured offense in the future. As of right now I'd say he has the best arm of any of the recent guys the Jets tried to develop. He also has the worst pocket awareness and touch on his passes. They need him to develop since sustainable football is tied to QB play, but for this year they should be able to take him along very slowly and still make the playoffs.   

Bingo!

It's almost like.... play conservative, play conservative, play conservative....then uh oh!  Jets are down by 10 heading into the 4th Quarter.  Let's take the Ferrari out of the garage and let Zach hit the gas.  You cited Tennessee last year, but Pittsburgh this season was another great example of this.  The Jets have found ways to win different games in different ways.  It's a compliment to the coaching IMO.