What Will It Take To Finally Trust Zach "The Enigma" Wilson?

[Packers12]

Jets defense is awesome this year.

[derp]

10 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

So...

Brady, Manning, Stafford and Brees - all won Super Bowls on their second team.  Not sure I understand your point.

You’re a big fan of the “I’ll only mention pertinent data for my side and/or make things up…not sure I understand your point” huh?

If you can get a veteran of that level, then a veteran is fine to attempt. I don’t see a veteran of that level the Jets will be able to acquire this year, but if they can that’s fine. That tends to be a pretty isolated and specific occurrence, not something that comes around every offseason like the opportunity to draft someone on a rookie deal. Chargers had Brees and Rivers, Colts had Luck and Manning - don’t see that on the horizon for any team. Lions had been bad forever and decided to reset - don’t see that scenario either. Brady decided to leave the franchise he’d been with forever. Maybe Rodgers pushes out of Green Bay but man his attitude is awful and he doesn’t look the same without Adams. I’d put that in comparable dice roll to a rookie territory, but I’d personally have a hard time rooting for him.

If you can’t acquire a veteran of that level, teams have won Super Bowls with rookie quarterbacks who aren’t especially good players or weren’t good enough to win on regular deals, since the $30M or so of cap savings going to other players on the team helps a lot. Flacco, Wilson, Eagles won with Wentz on his rookie deal and a cheap Foles at QB, Mahomes, Roethlisberger his only two I believe, Brady his first two or three. For example, given the Jets’ situation if they’re allocating the $40M-$50M required for a high level veteran QB next year, they’re going to have to cut guys on this year’s roster.

Also, the rookie approach also gives you the upside of actually acquiring a long term franchise QB.

[FidelioJet]

Just now, derp said:

You’re a big fan of the “I’ll only mention pertinent data for my side and/or make things up…not sure I understand your point” huh?

If you can get a veteran of that level, then a veteran is fine to attempt. I don’t see a veteran of that level the Jets will be able to acquire this year, but if they can that’s fine. That tends to be a pretty isolated and specific occurrence, not something that comes around every offseason like the opportunity to draft someone on a rookie deal. Chargers had Brees and Rivers, Colts had Luck and Manning - don’t see that on the horizon for any team. Lions had been bad forever and decided to reset - don’t see that scenario either. Brady decided to leave the franchise he’d been with forever. Maybe Rodgers pushes out of Green Bay but man his attitude is awful and he doesn’t look the same without Adams. I’d put that in comparable dice roll to a rookie territory, but I’d personally have a hard time rooting for him.

If you can’t acquire a veteran of that level, teams have won Super Bowls with rookie quarterbacks who aren’t especially good players or weren’t good enough to win on regular deals, since the $30M or so of cap savings going to other players on the team helps a lot. Flacco, Wilson, Eagles won with Wentz on his rookie deal and a cheap Foles at QB, Mahomes, Roethlisberger his only two I believe, Brady his first two or three. For example, given the Jets’ situation if they’re allocating the $40M-$50M required for a high level veteran QB next year, they’re going to have to cut guys on this year’s roster.

Also, the rookie approach also gives you the upside of actually acquiring a long term franchise QB.

They can surely get Nick Foles if they want.  Looking like Lamar Jackson is going to hit the open market.

It won't be easy to find the right guy, but if they believe Zach is done and this is a Super Bowl team minus a QB - a quality vet is the far better solution than drafting a QB at 15 or so (which is where they'll be)

But I won't fight with you anymore.  If you believe a rookie QB gives the Jets a better chance to win a Super Bowl than bringing in the best vet on the market, so be it.  

[derp]

4 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

They can surely get Nick Foles if they want.  Looking like Lamar Jackson is going to hit the open market.

It won't be easy to find the right guy, but if they believe Zach is done and this is a Super Bowl team minus a QB - a quality vet is the far better solution than drafting a QB at 15 or so (which is where they'll be)

But I won't fight with you anymore.  If you believe a rookie QB gives the Jets a better chance to win a Super Bowl than bringing in the best vet on the market, so be it.  

Nick Foles surely doesn’t fall into the Brady/Stafford/Brees/Manning bucket. Not sure why you think Jackson is hitting the open market but he’d probably fall in that category.

They could certainly move up in the draft as well.

It’s context dependent. Best vet might give the best chance, usually a vet of that caliber isn’t available. How often is a team going to let a guy who’s good enough to win a Super Bowl on a second deal get away, and if they’re willing to let him get away, why? Plan on the rookie, pivot if the right vet hits the market. Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr tier isn’t good enough IMO. Jackson tier is.

[FidelioJet]

2 minutes ago, derp said:

Nick Foles surely doesn’t fall into the Brady/Stafford/Brees/Manning bucket. Not sure why you think Jackson is hitting the open market but he’d probably fall in that category.

They could certainly move up in the draft as well.

It’s context dependent. Best vet might give the best chance, usually a vet of that caliber isn’t available. Plan on the rookie, pivot if the right vet hits the market. Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr tier isn’t good enough IMO. Jackson tier is.

Jackson is currently playing on the fifth and final year of his rookie-scale deal, which will net him roughly $23 million. The 25-year-old star will be eligible for a franchise tag next season that could pay him north of $45 million. If he isn't tagged or extended, he'll become an unrestricted free agent.

 

Sources told ESPN's Chris Mortensen that the Ravens proposed a six-year contract believed to pay Jackson a higher average salary and more guaranteed money than deals signed this summer by Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson and Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray.

[derp]

4 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Jackson is currently playing on the fifth and final year of his rookie-scale deal, which will net him roughly $23 million. The 25-year-old star will be eligible for a franchise tag next season that could pay him north of $45 million. If he isn't tagged or extended, he'll become an unrestricted free agent.

 

Sources told ESPN's Chris Mortensen that the Ravens proposed a six-year contract believed to pay Jackson a higher average salary and more guaranteed money than deals signed this summer by Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson and Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray.

There’s no reason for them not to tag him, so it’d be pretty shocking if he hits the open market. But if things go south they could elect to trade him and I’d certainly prefer the Jets are in on that to drafting someone. Like I said, context dependent. I’d think about Murray too.

I don’t think you can plan on a guy potentially hitting the trade market, but if they do, obviously it’s prudent to be opportunistic.

[Warfish]

3 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

So you’re saying an almost fumble is now a fumble? No, it wasn’t turnover worthy because he made the proper play.  He didn’t actually fumble.  
Almost fumbling isn’t turnover worthy.

Oh he fumbled alright.  The Refs simply got it wrong, to our favor (happily).  

3 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

I like you

I like you too Fid, I like alot of folks I vehemently disagree with on sports, lol.

3 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

and you often take smart positions even if I don’t agree.  

Thanks.

3 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

Not your best work here though. 

I'll be happy to leave that to the eyes of each individual beholder.

[doitny]

2 hours ago, derp said:

If there’s big money that needs to be handed out wouldn’t you want a guy on a rookie deal?

This team is good and quarterbacks (Wentz, Goff) have put up their best numbers on rookie deals when they’ve got good teams around them.

If Wilson isn’t the guy, the choice is roll the dice on a young guy and see if he can be productive on a rookie deal or bring in a veteran and trim the roster elsewhere.

Dice roll with a pick gives you more short term and long term upside IMO. More margin for error with QB play if the team is better, see if the guy is productive or can be a franchise guy. Kind of like why they went Wilson over Darnold only the team wasn’t built to support a young QB at that time.

Veteran route kind of gets you to like the Vikings with Cousins territory where the team’s got a higher floor and a lower ceiling. Or the Colts where you’re just constantly shuffling at QB but then the good young position get paid and your window closes. Guess it’s good if the goal is to compete for the playoffs for a few years but you remove the chance of having a good player on a cheap deal and of having a long term franchise QB.

I think with the right QB play and this roster the team is a legitimate Super Bowl contender in 2023 and 2024. Hopefully they give Wilson easy answers against pressure and he cleans that up. If not I think another draft pick is the move. At least it is if the goal is loftier than second place in the AFC East and wild card exits.

you cant draft a rookie QB next year. 

so we have to sit around and say, well he is a rookie of course hes going to struggle. then say... well you cant tell after one year lets give him 2024.

he has such arm talent, maybe he will put it topgether.....

he hasnt turned the ball over in a few games.... were winning even though he passes for 120 yds....

no more of that crap. we cant waste a team this talented.

this team is ready to win now. Minchew is a FA. he has good stats and is 27. he could be here for the next 8-10 years. thats the play. or it should be. cant take a chance we screw up drafting a QB again.

[Supersonic]

1 lb of whole bean coffee - dark roast, and a vintage cabbage patch doll.

[SuicidalSince98]

9 minutes ago, doitny said:

you cant draft a rookie QB next year. 

so we have to sit around and say, well he is a rookie of course hes going to struggle. then say... well you cant tell after one year lets give him 2024.

he has such arm talent, maybe he will put it topgether.....

he hasnt turned the ball over in a few games.... were winning even though he passes for 120 yds....

no more of that crap. we cant waste a team this talented.

this team is ready to win now. Minchew is a FA. he has good stats and is 27. he could be here for the next 8-10 years. thats the play. or it should be. cant take a chance we screw up drafting a QB again.

Dude… it’s been two games. Why are you acting like you’ve been hearing that for years lol 

[derp]

29 minutes ago, doitny said:

you cant draft a rookie QB next year. 

so we have to sit around and say, well he is a rookie of course hes going to struggle. then say... well you cant tell after one year lets give him 2024.

he has such arm talent, maybe he will put it topgether.....

he hasnt turned the ball over in a few games.... were winning even though he passes for 120 yds....

no more of that crap. we cant waste a team this talented.

this team is ready to win now. Minchew is a FA. he has good stats and is 27. he could be here for the next 8-10 years. thats the play. or it should be. cant take a chance we screw up drafting a QB again.

A QB at Minshew’s level of play has not won a Super Bowl on a veteran contract for like 20 years, and it was a completely different league back then. You need elite QB play or a guy on a rookie deal.

[Sperm Edwards]

15 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

I don't disagree, I just don't see them.  

Not nearly as many as people are making them out to be.  I can think of one that SHOULD have been a turnover.  Otherwise I saw a small handful of plays that would have required an exceptional defensive play to make an INT - but those are calculated risks you need an NFL QB to make.

Moreover, one of the two INT Zach has this year was due to a ball going through the meat oof both hands of the WR.

So Turnover Worthy plays exist...but what "worthy" means is the key question.

If you're saying Worthy means - should have been an INT had it not been for a poor defensive play - then he has maybe 1..

If you're saying Worthy means - it was possible - but would have required a special play from the defense then it might be 3

Either this way - this idea that he's thrown some immense number of Turnover Worthy plays is a false narrative.

I pretty much ignore PFF’s overall grades, but they’re at least pretty useful (if imperfect) at tallying gross #s. They have him with 7 turnover worthy plays (which counts actual turnovers; they don’t double dip). That puts his (again, by their tally, but they’re not out to get him) turnover worthy rate at pushing 6%, given the low number of dropbacks he’s had this year. Since it’s somewhat subjective they may be wrong on 1, maybe even 2, but they’re not wrong on 4-5. If anything I’ve felt they’re generous towards the player (e.g. I remember counting at least 1 more Corey Davis drop than they assessed over the first month last year).

They define a Turnover Worthy Play as “a pass that has a high percentage chance to be intercepted or a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbling.” 

They’re not counting passes where only an unlikely/great play by a defender could cause a turnover.

They counted 2 more than the 2 picks he threw vs. Pittsburgh, none against Miami, 2 vs. GB, and 1 vs. Denver (which had to be the non-call fumble that could just as easily have gone the other way; ergo, turnover worthy).

Again I don’t have each of these listed in front of me, but that sounds about right: about 5 plays cumulatively where I remember feeling whew, we got away with one there. ~5x sounds like the right ballpark. Counting just 1x is putting your thumb on the scale, if your thumb weighed 3.7 Bectons.

[neckdemon]

23 hours ago, SuicidalSince98 said:

Completely false 

He needs to be more consistently  accurate, that’s it 

things that are must-haves for any good nfl quarterback (and which zach isn't good at)

accuracy, good footwork, pocket presence (especially lacking an internal clock), decision making, field vision (he is especially poor at seeing open receivers), anticipation, and touch (a good feel for how much velocity is needed for a pass)

he is at the least BELOW AVERAGE at all of these things. some of them he is just straight terrible at

[Stark]

22 hours ago, Anthony Jet said:

Zach definitely needs to play better. But being the 2nd pick in the draft shouldn’t be used against him. He didn’t draft himself. He’s here. That asset is gone. If anything that goes against the FO for taking a guy at 2 that shouldn’t have been. 

ok, remove the draft placement... insert any starting QB

[BigRy56]

12 hours until Zach Wilson assumes the throne as the new King of the East #BendTheKnee

[tdoublee]

Starting him in several Draft Kings lineups today. I've been down on him all year but I have a feeling he will break out this afternoon.

Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk

[jetswinbaby!]

Thanks, Zach...

You answered the question for us...

We can't trust you...

[Larz]

Bottom line is he panics under pressure. 
 

that would be troublesome for a college sophomore, for a second year pro it’s unacceptable and reason to move on 

[rillo]

He panics way too much and just throws the ball in play. He has done this a few times during this winning streak and it hasn't biten him in his ass yet until today. 

 

[derp]

11 minutes ago, Larz said:

Bottom line is he panics under pressure. 
 

that would be troublesome for a college sophomore, for a second year pro it’s unacceptable and reason to move on 

Not sure how this could be the case, yesterday I was told his numbers against pressure were not a concern (not by you).

[RJIII]

Trade him. He’s not the answer, quite looking for a reason. Jets ranked in that pic just like they do ALL QB’s.


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[RJIII]

I'm trying very hard to figure Zach Wilson out...
I like him, but I have a major problem...
I still don't trust him...
I can see that he has talent...
But he has me on the edge of my seat every time he drops back with the ball...
I can't recall watching a young QB where, instead of looking for superior skill, I'm looking for good judgement...
He'll have a steady quarter or two...
Then he will follow it up with a bunch of mind-numbing, stupid plays, where I ask myself "What was he thinking?"...
Can Zach just put together 4 quarters of solid football?...
 
 

If you can’t tell he’s a bust you’re part of the problem too.



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[Integrity28]

This thread paid instant dividends.

[neckdemon]

13 hours ago, neckdemon said:

things that are must-haves for any good nfl quarterback (and which zach isn't good at)

accuracy, good footwork, pocket presence (especially lacking an internal clock), decision making, field vision (he is especially poor at seeing open receivers), anticipation, and touch (a good feel for how much velocity is needed for a pass)

he is at the least BELOW AVERAGE at all of these things. some of them he is just straight terrible at

Like I said....

TERRIBLE!!!!