Randy Mueller thinks the Jets could get a 2nd round pick in a tag and trade for Bryce Huff

[ChewyandtheJets]

A second for Huff won’t  happen if only because almost every one of us would jump at this deal.  Thus it is too high a price.   Now if we had signed him for a reasonable amount maybe someone would give us a second but the pick plus the pay is too much imo.  

[slimjasi]

32 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

They gave Huff every indication that they didn't believe in him.

- didn't work out a reasonable deal last offseason

- hit him with the 2nd round tender, begging a team to give them a pick rather than spending the $3m more on the 1st round tender which would have implied they wanted him.

- then they decided in a year they were gaining All-In on a SB that they felt they could burn a 1st on a player that was barely going to play

- then restructured Lawson to push his cap hit into 2024 when they had a free out to save all of that space.

Maybe I'm reading into that too far but I completely understand if Huff wants to play hard ball

Another fundamental problem is that they never gave him a chance to be an every down player because of Saleh’s obsession with using a DL rotation.

huff hinted this week that this is his big issue. He wants to be an every down player so he gets paid like one and he will not get that opportunity here over JJ/McDonald going forward. 

[bonkertons]

I don't see any team trading a 2nd for him if he's making $24M.  Unless they really believe in him being a 3-down DE, but still it would probably be a 3rd at that cap hit and the possibility of no one biting would be too great of a risk IMO.  You bring Huff back for $24M and I don't see any way in hell you could address the rest of the holes on this team.  At least one of LT, RT, WR2, DT2 will be solved by dumpster diving or trusting a 3rd or 4th round pick.  Maybe even two of those positions.  

[Jetkwondo]

2 hours ago, maury77 said:

How do I edit the thread title? I misspelled tag. 

Upper right hand corner of your post you'll see 3 dots, click it and then click edit.  hit save at bottom when done

[Gen X Jet]

Who’s Randy Mueller? Did he play guard for the Jets in the ‘80s?

[maury77]

1 hour ago, bla bla bla said:

The franchise tag for DE's is gonna be close to $24m according to OTC. If I were Huff, I would force the Jets to tag me then refuse to sign a long term deal with any team. He could really implode the Jets chances of trading him if wants to play on the tag for a season. Douglas did Huff dirty last year, I don't think Huff does us any favors.

Yeah, but then the Jets could wait for all the big $ edge free agents to sign then remove the franchise tag like the Giants did to Barkley. 

[TheClashFan]

1 hour ago, Barry McCockinner said:

tag and trade w/Atl to move up to 6 (swap firsts) and get a starting LT.

Don't the Giants pick 6th and Atlanta 8th?

The Titans at 7 are highly likely going OT.

 

[maury77]

1 hour ago, dbatesman said:

wow, former Seattle Sea Dragons director of pro personnel Randy Mueller?

Yeah, he had a few other jobs before that. 

[maury77]

23 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

I don't see any team trading a 2nd for him if he's making $24M.  Unless they really believe in him being a 3-down DE, but still it would probably be a 3rd at that cap hit and the possibility of no one biting would be too great of a risk IMO.  You bring Huff back for $24M and I don't see any way in hell you could address the rest of the holes on this team.  At least one of LT, RT, WR2, DT2 will be solved by dumpster diving or trusting a 3rd or 4th round pick.  Maybe even two of those positions.  

I believe the idea would be for Huff to work out an extension at a significantly lower price with the team he's going to be traded to before the deal is completed. 

[maury77]

4 minutes ago, Gen X Jet said:

Who’s Randy Mueller? Did he play guard for the Jets in the ‘80s?

Former GM of the Saints & Dolphins. 

[Barry McCockinner]

9 minutes ago, TheClashFan said:

Don't the Giants pick 6th and Atlanta 8th?

The Titans at 7 are highly likely going OT.

 

you're right - for some reason I thought ATL was 6.

[Bleedin Green]

They couldn't get a second rounder for him (or seemingly any meaningful offer) last year when he would've come at a fraction of the price for a contract.

Also, not sure where the Jets are going to find $23M to fit him under the cap to even use the tag, while then needing to find even more money on top of that to be active in FA before a trade goes through.

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, NYDreamer said:

So reminiscent of John Abraham trade to Atlanta so many years ago.

Except John Abraham was a legit upper-1st round talent and selection who got a multi-year contract at the tag amount because he was a 3x pro bowler and a past 1st team all pro still very much in his prime. 10 sacks for him was a baseline not a career season, provided he stayed healthy (which he often didn't). Anyway that's what made tagging him doable, because it was still an ok outcome for the Jets if no one offered up high enough compensation.

Huff isn't in the same galaxy of comparison.

Huff once got 10 sacks (2 in the final meaningless game between two of the worst teams in football), that more than doubled his career total to that point, on a team with loads of DL talent that was able to keep him fresh by subbing him out so much (and keeping him from getting run over on obvious rushing downs). He only once opened the season as starter in 2021 and had 2 sacks to show for it before landing on IR under the repeated punishment, as his team finished the year with the worst D in the NFL, which immediately improved as a whole upon relegating him to situational pass rusher the next two years. It's hard to ignore, even as I'm wow'd by some of his skills off the edge getting after the QB.

He's a terrific pass rusher, but the move was to lock him up before he balled out in his walk year. That time has passed, and losing him was only cemented when they took their second of two edge rushers in back to back seasons in round 1. He wants another chance to start, and that's not happening here.

Nobody is trading a 2nd round pick for a situational pass rusher franchise-tagged at $23-24MM, and the Jets can't pay him that much to play so little when no one shows interest. If Mueller is right, and they are able to tag & trade Huff for a 2nd, then - for all his many other faults - Douglas is the best-trading GM I've ever seen.

[LAD_Brooklyn]

Hit Huff with the transition tag and try to workout a deal. 

If it's too much then there isn't anything we can do. Forcing him to return on the franchise tag in way too much. Just transition him and if it something we can match then do so. If not then it's not the end of the world. 

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

2 hours ago, Jets Things said:

He's too small to play against the run and is trying to get paid like he's an every down DE. He isn't. 

LOL they just drafted a DE at #15 overall who weighs like 240

I don’t think they have any intention of bringing Huff back, which I think is stupid, but Joe Douglas is a stubborn cat

They’ll settle for a compensatory after he walks 

[BCJet]

1 hour ago, bla bla bla said:

They gave Huff every indication that they didn't believe in him.

- didn't work out a reasonable deal last offseason

- hit him with the 2nd round tender, begging a team to give them a pick rather than spending the $3m more on the 1st round tender which would have implied they wanted him.

- then they decided in a year they were gaining All-In on a SB that they felt they could burn a 1st on a player that was barely going to play

- then restructured Lawson to push his cap hit into 2024 when they had a free out to save all of that space.

Maybe I'm reading into that too far but I completely understand if Huff wants to play hard ball

This is a really odd take.

We put a second round tender on an UDFA to allow the market to dictate his price/value.  No one bit on the 2nd round pick for a situational pass rusher so we paid him according to that value slot. Should JD have paid him more because Huff is a "great story"?  Why is it JD's responsibility to make him "feel wanted". Are you serious?

I really like Huff as a "story" and its great to see someone like him succeed when he was undrafted.  I also hope he get paid as much as possible for putting his body on the line playing football, but Im a jets fan and want whats best for the team. If we can get a 2nd round pick for player who we can replace with Will McDonald and use that pick on a QB or OL then im ALL for it.  This is a business and there is no reason to pay Huff unless that amount of money will help the team. 

[Mogglez]

2 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Heard Brad Spielberger (PFF’s contracts guy) explain that the Jets are kinda screwed with Huff because he’s really a $13-$15mm AAV guy and the tag is going to start at $20 million, so the acquiring team already starts out in an overpay situation where Huff has all the leverage. Spielberger said the best the Jets can expect is for a team to offer a pick that’s simply higher than the comp pick the Jets would potentially get for losing Huff. Which the Jets wouldn’t get anyway because they’re going to chase bad free agents around. 

Yup.  The only options the Jets really have that don’t force them to screw themselves in a certain way are work out a team friendly long-term deal, tag him and include him in a trade for someone like Bakhtiari or Davante Adams, or let him walk for nothing.  I highly doubt anyone is going to trade for him outright for the reasons above and they already have to get stupid creative to sign FAs so they can’t afford to just let him sit on the tag.

This is the result of a gross mismanagement of resources. They should have gotten this done last off-season and Will McDonald IV should have never been the pick.  My guess is that they’re going to lose their best pure pass rusher since Abraham for nothing, try their best to navigate FA to get that comp pick and, ultimately, fail to do so because Douglas’ f*ck-ups have left this team with a massive number of holes that he has to fill with our window being what it is.

[slimjasi]

13 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Except John Abraham was a legit upper-1st round talent and selection who got a multi-year contract at the tag amount because he was a 3x pro bowler and a past 1st team all pro still very much in his prime. 10 sacks for him was a baseline not a career season, provided he stayed healthy (which he often didn't). Anyway that's what made tagging him doable, because it was still an ok outcome for the Jets if no one offered up high enough compensation.

Huff isn't in the same galaxy of comparison.

Huff once got 10 sacks (2 in the final meaningless game between two of the worst teams in football), that more than doubled his career total to that point, on a team with loads of DL talent that was able to keep him fresh by subbing him out so much (and keeping him from getting run over on obvious rushing downs). He only once opened the season as starter in 2021 and had 2 sacks to show for it before landing on IR under the repeated punishment, as his team finished the year with the worst D in the NFL, which immediately improved as a whole upon relegating him to situational pass rusher the next two years. It's hard to ignore, even as I'm wow'd by some of his skills off the edge getting after the QB.

He's a terrific pass rusher, but the move was to lock him up before he balled out in his walk year. That time has passed, and losing him was only cemented when they took their second of two edge rushers in back to back seasons in round 1. He wants another chance to start, and that's not happening here.

Nobody is trading a 2nd round pick for a situational pass rusher franchise-tagged at $23-24MM, and the Jets can't pay him that much to play so little when no one shows interest. If Mueller is right, and they are able to tag & trade Huff for a 2nd, then - for all his many other faults - Douglas is the best-trading GM I've ever seen.

While is I agree with a lot of this, the thing about Huff is that he’s never consistently gotten more than half of the team’s defensive snaps. The closest was in 2021, as you already alluded to, where he still only played 51% of the snaps in 7 games before getting hurt. But, remember, Huff was only in his season overall  as an UDFA (and first season in Saleh’s system), so you can argue he was still very raw and developing. 
 

He just got 10 sacks playing only 42% of the time and has the fastest get off in the NFL. That’s pretty impressive. I think it comes down to whether or not other teams are hesitant to give Huff a chance as an every down DE following his breakout year. 

[Asymmetrical]

38 minutes ago, maury77 said:

Former GM of the Saints & Dolphins. 

architect of the 1-15 dolphins. 

[Augustiniak]

2 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

While is I agree with a lot of this, the thing about Huff is that he’s never consistently gotten more than half of the team’s defensive snaps. The closest was in 2021, as you already alluded to, where he still only played 51% of the snaps in 7 games before getting hurt. But, remember, Huff was only in his season overall  as an UDFA (and first season in Saleh’s system), so you can argue he was still very raw and developing. 
 

He just got 10 sacks playing only 42% of the time and has the fastest get off in the NFL. That’s pretty impressive. I think it comes down to whether or not other teams are hesitant to give Huff a chance as an every down DE following his breakout year. 

Stating the obvious they never intended to keep huff b/c they see him as a rotational player and replaced him with mcdonald.  Q and jj make the line go now and mcdonald will take over that edge role and get sacks.  If any gm can figure out how to trade huff for value it’s JD who has been very good at that.  

[Sammybighead]

2 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Heard Brad Spielberger (PFF’s contracts guy) explain that the Jets are kinda screwed with Huff because he’s really a $13-$15mm AAV guy and the tag is going to start at $20 million, so the acquiring team already starts out in an overpay situation where Huff has all the leverage. Spielberger said the best the Jets can expect is for a team to offer a pick that’s simply higher than the comp pick the Jets would potentially get for losing Huff. Which the Jets wouldn’t get anyway because they’re going to chase bad free agents around. 

Started a thread about this a little while back. Basically thought about this exact scenario. Tag is too rich for him and a trade partner team may not bite due to it. Then jets would be stuck with fitting a massive tag under the cap.

[Sperm Edwards]

18 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

While is I agree with a lot of this, the thing about Huff is that he’s never consistently gotten more than half of the team’s defensive snaps. The closest was in 2021, as you already alluded to, where he still only played 51% of the snaps in 7 games before getting hurt. But, remember, Huff was only in his season overall  as an UDFA (and first season in Saleh’s system), so you can argue he was still very raw and developing. 
 

He just got 10 sacks playing only 42% of the time and has the fastest get off in the NFL. That’s pretty impressive. I think it comes down to whether or not other teams are hesitant to give Huff a chance as an every down DE following his breakout year. 

Except he was consistently getting most of the snaps in 2021 when he was starting. The only exception was in the Denver blowout when he got "only" 46%, and I don't remember his snaps in that game enough to recall if he was just pulled when Denver shifted to clock-bleeding runs with the game already in hand. All other starts - including other blowouts - he was consistently getting most of the snaps as a starter. And the defense was the worst it's been in memory.

 He didn't play 7 games and then get hurt. He played 6 games and then returned 3 of the final 4 (missing the final game, too). It was his final 3 games of the season where he played about 1/3 of the snaps that lowered his year-average snap count:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HuffBr00/fantasy/2021

Saleh may not be the greatest HC, and it's still a mystery what he does on the sidelines every week, but he surely knows something about defense. 

The truth is these past two seasons Huff's probably been playing in the role to which he's most suited.

[slimjasi]

8 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Except he was consistently getting most of the snaps in 2021 when he was starting. The only exception was in the Denver blowout when he got "only" 46%, and I don't remember his snaps in that game enough to recall if he was just pulled when Denver shifted to clock-bleeding runs with the game already in hand. All other starts - including other blowouts - he was consistently getting most of the snaps as a starter. And the defense was the worst it's been in memory.

 He didn't play 7 games and then get hurt. He played 6 games and then returned 3 of the final 4 (missing the final game, too). It was his final 3 games of the season where he played about 1/3 of the snaps that lowered his year-average snap count:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HuffBr00/fantasy/2021

Saleh may not be the greatest HC, and it's still a mystery what he does on the sidelines every week, but he surely knows something about defense. 

The truth is these past two seasons Huff's probably been playing in the role to which he's most suited.

Yes, I mentioned 2021 - as I already stated - that was his second season as an UDFA and first season in Saleh’s system. Players develop. It took QW 4 season to start to consistently dominate. Huff is a lot better than he was in 2021. 

it’s entirely possible another team sees more long term potential in Huff than the Jets do. 

 

[Augustiniak]

3 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Yes, I mentioned 2021 - as I already stated - that was his second season as an UDFA and first season in Saleh’s system. Players develop. It took QW 4 season to start to consistently dominate. Huff is a lot better than he was in 2021. 

it’s entirely possible another team sees more long term potential in Huff than the Jets do. 

 

Huff wants to be paid for what he thinks he can be, not what he is now, a part time player.  I think a team may bite. 

[slimjasi]

Just now, Augustiniak said:

Huff wants to be paid for what he thinks he can be, not what he is now, a part time player.  I think a team may bite. 

Exactly - that’s what it comes down to. Is another team willing to give Huff a larger role than the Jets have? We’ll see. 
 

[derp]

3 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Heard Brad Spielberger (PFF’s contracts guy) explain that the Jets are kinda screwed with Huff because he’s really a $13-$15mm AAV guy and the tag is going to start at $20 million, so the acquiring team already starts out in an overpay situation where Huff has all the leverage. Spielberger said the best the Jets can expect is for a team to offer a pick that’s simply higher than the comp pick the Jets would potentially get for losing Huff. Which the Jets wouldn’t get anyway because they’re going to chase bad free agents around. 

I think the overpay does get muddied by it being a short-term deal, but agree about the resources mismatch. It gets mitigated if the team can agree to a long-term deal with Huff and there's probably a guarantees structure where a three year deal in that range is better than the tag.

Arizona got bandied about here and actually makes some sense. Not for 35 - but they've also got 4, 21 (currently), 66, 71, 85, 105, 134...lots of picks. Probably too many to keep. Them unloading one of those three thirds for a high-end per snap pass rusher and giving him to a staff that's used Haason Reddick could make sense. Who says no to 85 for Huff? I think if anything it's Arizona, but seems pretty reasonable.

[dbatesman]

1 hour ago, maury77 said:

Yeah, he had a few other jobs before that. 

Oh sorry. I meant to say "the guy who spent a top 10 pick on Ted Ginn"

[T0mShane]

56 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

Yup.  The only options the Jets really have that don’t force them to screw themselves in a certain way are work out a team friendly long-term deal, tag him and include him in a trade for someone like Bakhtiari or Davante Adams, or let him walk for nothing.  I highly doubt anyone is going to trade for him outright for the reasons above and they already have to get stupid creative to sign FAs so they can’t afford to just let him sit on the tag.

This is the result of a gross mismanagement of resources. They should have gotten this done last off-season and Will McDonald IV should have never been the pick.  My guess is that they’re going to lose their best pure pass rusher since Abraham for nothing, try their best to navigate FA to get that comp pick and, ultimately, fail to do so because Douglas’ f*ck-ups have left this team with a massive number of holes that he has to fill with our window being what it is.

What’s confusing about is that the whole justification for drafting McDonald was that Rodgers was going to score points, there’d be a million pass rush snaps to go around, and “you can’t have too many pass rushers,” which, fine, but then they’re going to let Huff walk because he’s not great against the run? Simple explanation is that Douglas had this plan in place two years ago, Huff over-performed, and Douglas doesn’t want to deviate from his plan, which is dumb but super consistent with who he’s been as a GM. The QB is awful? Let’s ride it out. The LT you drafted is a piece of sh*t? Let’s ride it out. Duane Brown is 38 and has been injured for the last five years? Let’s pencil him in to a starting job with no Plan B. 

[T0mShane]

16 minutes ago, derp said:

I think the overpay does get muddied by it being a short-term deal, but agree about the resources mismatch. It gets mitigated if the team can agree to a long-term deal with Huff and there's probably a guarantees structure where a three year deal in that range is better than the tag.

Arizona got bandied about here and actually makes some sense. Not for 35 - but they've also got 4, 21 (currently), 66, 71, 85, 105, 134...lots of picks. Probably too many to keep. Them unloading one of those three thirds for a high-end per snap pass rusher and giving him to a staff that's used Haason Reddick could make sense. Who says no to 85 for Huff? I think if anything it's Arizona, but seems pretty reasonable.

Yeah, there are two face-saving moves for Douglas now: give Huff the 3/$45 and figure it out later, or deal him for whatever pick you can get and pretend like he outfoxed whoever gave them the pick. Arizona certainly makes sense, but they—like the rest of the market—can just wait it out and likely get Huff as a free agent. 

[slimjasi]

1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

What’s confusing about is that the while justification for drafting McDonald was that Rodgers was going to score points, there’d be a million pass rush snaps to go around, and “you can’t have too many pass rushers,” which, fine, but then they’re going to let Huff walk because he’s not great against the run? Simple explanation is that Douglas had this plan in place two years ago, Huff over-performed, and Douglas doesn’t want to deviate from his plan, which is dumb but super consistent with who he’s been as a GM. The QB is awful? Let’s ride it out. The LT you drafted is a piece of sh*t? Let’s ride it out. Duane Brown is 38 and has been injured for the last five years? Let’s pencil him in to a starting job with no Plan B. 

I think you nailed my frustration with Douglas here, in particular with regards to how they are handling Huff as well as in general. 
 

this is as stubborn of a jets regime as I can remember. 

[Augustiniak]

10 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

I think you nailed my frustration with Douglas here, in particular with regards to how they are handling Huff as well as in general. 
 

this is as stubborn of a jets regime as I can remember. 

Keep wilson, he’ll be fine.  Keep becton, he’ll be fine.  Don’t sign a good qb backup, we’ll be fine.  Sign whoever rodgers wants, we’ll be fine.  Never admit a mistake

[derp]

29 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Yeah, there are two face-saving moves for Douglas now: give Huff the 3/$45 and figure it out later, or deal him for whatever pick you can get and pretend like he outfoxed whoever gave them the pick. Arizona certainly makes sense, but they—like the rest of the market—can just wait it out and likely get Huff as a free agent. 

I think Douglas has to tag Huff. It gets complicated if they can't trade him this offseason for sure, but I don't anticipate them being able to have a compensatory pick situation where they'll get something for losing Huff - and I don't think letting a double digit sack pass rusher with tremendous per snap production for nothing is something they can do either.

[Asymmetrical]

15 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

I think you nailed my frustration with Douglas here, in particular with regards to how they are handling Huff as well as in general. 
 

this is as stubborn of a jets regime as I can remember. 

There just doesn't seem to be any thought given to the long term. Which is unfortunate because dumping Adams and Darnold gave them the capital and ability to really build a sustainable program. Drafting a complete turd at 2 seemed to break his brain. 

[ChewyandtheJets]

32 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

What’s confusing about is that the whole justification for drafting McDonald was that Rodgers was going to score points, there’d be a million pass rush snaps to go around, and “you can’t have too many pass rushers,” which, fine, but then they’re going to let Huff walk because he’s not great against the run? Simple explanation is that Douglas had this plan in place two years ago, Huff over-performed, and Douglas doesn’t want to deviate from his plan, which is dumb but super consistent with who he’s been as a GM. The QB is awful? Let’s ride it out. The LT you drafted is a piece of sh*t? Let’s ride it out. Duane Brown is 38 and has been injured for the last five years? Let’s pencil him in to a starting job with no Plan B. 

When you mention the plan was for the Jets to score lots of points, have big leads, and pin back their ears to swarm opposing QBs with a rotation of fresh bodies all because of Aaron Rodgers it brings me back to when Saleh actually stated this same thing out loud and publicly.  Ok for you on this forum, not ok for a HC at a press conference.  Was really cringe worthy and like much else didn’t exact go as planned.

[T0mShane]

21 minutes ago, derp said:

I think Douglas has to tag Huff. It gets complicated if they can't trade him this offseason for sure, but I don't anticipate them being able to have a compensatory pick situation where they'll get something for losing Huff - and I don't think letting a double digit sack pass rusher with tremendous per snap production for nothing is something they can do either.

I don’t think they can do it unless they think McDonald is already a lost cause. It’ll either have to be a three year deal where the next GM has to deal with the big cap hits or they’ll have to trade him. Seems pretty likely that they’d look at that $23 million figure and choose to break it up among a couple of free agent interior OL, Davante Adams, and probably Bakhtiari’s retirement fund.