Bowers downfield highlights plus a couple handoffs

[Gastineau Lives]

Just now, slats said:

Dude, your Bowers’ comps are exclusively the best players to ever play the position. If Bowers is merely a top ten TE, last year that would be Kincaid and his 673 yards and 2 TDs, and that’s tough to justify at the end of the round let alone top ten. 
 
Conversely, if the Jets draft a WR who barely makes the top 20 at his position, that’s DeVonta Smith and 1066 yards and 7 TDs. 

Who did Frankenstein play for? The Pats and Bucs, I know but he’s doing USAA commercials now.

[jetblue95]

13 hours ago, Gastineau Lives said:

There are 20 Rome Odunzes in the NFL. There are a handful of elite tight ends. They’re gold.

george kittle led all TEs with 1020 yards (only TE over 1000 yards).  23 receivers had more yards than him.

travis kelce was the next TE with 984 yards, followed by evan engram with 963 and tj hockenstein with 960.  they finished 29-31 in the league in yardage.

sam laporta was 37th in the league, david njoku was 38th and trey mcbride was 40th.

i'd rather have another top 20 WR (to go with wilson) than a top 5 TE.  sure, if bowers turns into this generational unicorn of a TE, then he probably would be worth the 10th pick.  if the WR turns into top 20ish WR, he would be worth the pick.  as you never know who will succeed and who will fail, the bar is much greater for the TE to clear to be worth the 10th pick.  he needs to be among the top 2-3 TEs in the league to justify that high of a selection.

[Augustiniak]

Just now, jetblue95 said:

george kittle led all TEs with 1020 yards (only TE over 1000 yards).  23 receivers had more yards than him.

travis kelce was the next TE with 984 yards, followed by evan engram with 963 and tj hockenstein with 960.  they finished 29-31 in the league in yardage.

sam laporta was 37th in the league, david njoku was 38th and trey mcbride was 40th.

i'd rather have another top 20 WR (to go with wilson) than a top 5 TE.  sure, if bowers turns into this generational unicorn of a TE, then he probably would be worth the 10th pick.  if the WR turns into top 20ish WR, he would be worth the pick.  as you never know who will succeed and who will fail, the bar is much greater for the TE to clear to be worth the 10th pick.  he needs to be among the top 2-3 TEs in the league to justify that high of a selection.

Nothing wrong with bowers and i think he’ll be good, but with the 10th pick it’s rough.  If they got him at 25 that’s different. 

[Gastineau Lives]

8 minutes ago, jetblue95 said:

george kittle led all TEs with 1020 yards (only TE over 1000 yards).  23 receivers had more yards than him.

travis kelce was the next TE with 984 yards, followed by evan engram with 963 and tj hockenstein with 960.  they finished 29-31 in the league in yardage.

sam laporta was 37th in the league, david njoku was 38th and trey mcbride was 40th.

i'd rather have another top 20 WR (to go with wilson) than a top 5 TE.  sure, if bowers turns into this generational unicorn of a TE, then he probably would be worth the 10th pick.  if the WR turns into top 20ish WR, he would be worth the pick.  as you never know who will succeed and who will fail, the bar is much greater for the TE to clear to be worth the 10th pick.  he needs to be among the top 2-3 TEs in the league to justify that high of a selection.

So get a top tight end and make it to the conference championship you’re saying? I’m in.

You speak to tyreek hill lately? How’s he feeling? Waddle? Cee dee?

[BurntDice]

25 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

Ok so you don’t need the valuable of valuables just a great QB got it

It seems like nuance and outliers are something out of reach for your brain capacity. Things don’t need to be absolute to be generally true 

[Gastineau Lives]

1 minute ago, BurntDice said:

It seems like nuance and outliers are something out of reach to your brain capacity. Things don’t need to be absolute to be generally true 

This is coming from the guy that is comparing tight ends to wide receivers by their yardage and salary. Holy ****

[BurntDice]

Just now, Gastineau Lives said:

This is coming from the guy that is comparing tight ends to wide receivers by their yardage and salary. Holy ****

How should I compare them? Rushing yards? Don’t be blind to what’s right in front of you 

[Tranquilo]

Handoffs may seem like nothing but it's a good indicator of a team doing anything to get the ball into a player's hands. Few TEs get that (Laporta ironically has gotten carries with the Lions).

[jetblue95]

10 hours ago, Gastineau Lives said:

Ask Andy Reid why it’s kinda cool to have a good tight end even if you have ugazz at receiver . You keep taking about football like it’s five on five two hand touch with a giver.

Ask the Niners how valuable Kittle is. Or the Lions with one good receiver. 

 

travis kelce is a hall of famer and one of the 3 or so best TEs in history.  he also plays with the guy who very well may go down in history as the greatest QB of all time and is coached by perhaps the best offensive mind in the league's history (or among the greatest of all time).

the niners are a loaded team with the best RB in the league, 2 elite WRs and one of the best defenses in the league to go with kittle.  their head coach is also a top offensive mind.

the lions had a top 3 WR in the league along with a very good running game and laporta.  they also just had 1 year of success and made the nfc title game by beating two mediocre teams, so let's hold off on putting them as among the league's elite.

again, you are setting the bar at bowers needs to be a top 2-3 TE in the league to be worth the pick.

[derp]

1 hour ago, slats said:

My entire argument has been about positional value, and the idea that I do not believe that Joe Douglas will pull the trigger on a TE this high specifically because there is absolutely no margin for error when drafting a low value position in the top 10, and JD is quite possibly drafting for his job next week. 
 
I will tell you, too, that I believe that the TE position is probably valued unfairly low. Safety and RB are low valued because of the abundance of quality replacement level players for them every year. They are generally not the top athletes/football players at their size, those guys become WRs and CBs. RB has the additional issue of presumably being washed up by age 30, if not sooner. A complete TE has a ton of value but, to me, a complete TE is a guy who’s an extra OL when needed as well as a 1000 yard threat as a receiver. I’m not sure Bowers is that. I don’t think a 240lb slot receiver is worth the tenth pick in the draft, either. 

I think tight end and running back will eventually correct towards wide receiver salaries. Kind of like guard salaries have corrected towards tackle. Although I think line is mostly not wanting weak links whereas skill players are more for difference makers.

The disconnect between the pro and anti Bowers is just a nice example of how polarizing general exchange is. One side says he’s the greatest tight end prospect of all time and a Hall of Famer, the other points out he’s undersized and been schemed touches but not had crazy production, original side complains that’s nitpicking, and it’s kind of like listen if you’re going to fit him for a gold jacket that kind of stuff becomes fair game. Nobody’s saying he’s bad but the takes are a little hyperbolic.

Like, Pitts was probably a better prospect at the time. He went ahead of Chase, Sewell, etc in an absolutely loaded draft. I don’t think Bowers will be the first position player off the board this year so the NFL probably doesn’t value him the way they valued Pitts. That doesn’t mean I think Bowers is going to bust, I just think any push back is met with those who like him being incredulous and it doesn’t make for a good exchange.

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, derp said:

I think tight end and running back will eventually correct towards wide receiver salaries. Kind of like guard salaries have corrected towards tackle. Although I think line is mostly not wanting weak links whereas skill players are more for difference makers.

The disconnect between the pro and anti Bowers is just a nice example of how polarizing he is. One side says he’s the greatest tight end prospect of all time and a Hall of Famer, the other points out he’s undersized and been schemed touches but not had crazy production, original side complains that’s nitpicking, and it’s kind of like listen if you’re going to fit him for a gold jacket that kind of stuff becomes fair game. Nobody’s saying he’s bad but the takes are a little hyperbolic.

Like, Pitts was probably a better prospect at the time. He went ahead of Chase, Sewell, etc in an absolutely loaded draft. I don’t think Bowers will be the first position player off the board this year so the NFL probably doesn’t value him the way they valued Pitts. That doesn’t mean I think Bowers is going to bust, I just think any push back is met with those who like him being incredulous and it doesn’t make for a good exchange.

If bowers isn’t great it’s going to hurt the TE draft market, since he’s really considered a can’t miss player.  For the TE future draftees he better be very good.  And I’m a fan, but not for the jets. 

[Gastineau Lives]

3 minutes ago, jetblue95 said:

 

travis kelce is a hall of famer and one of the 3 or so best TEs in history.  he also plays with the guy who very well may go down in history as the greatest QB of all time and is coached by perhaps the best offensive mind in the league's history (or among the greatest of all time).

the niners are a loaded team with the best RB in the league, 2 elite WRs and one of the best defenses in the league to go with kittle.  their head coach is also a top offensive mind.

the lions had a top 3 WR in the league along with a very good running game and laporta.  they also just had 1 year of success and made the nfc title game by beating two mediocre teams, so let's hold off on putting them as among the league's elite.

again, you are setting the bar at bowers needs to be a top 2-3 TE in the league to be worth the pick.

Yup he’s that talented. I like my chances. 

[jetblue95]

5 hours ago, Bobby816 said:

And a TE used like a WR is premium. Are LaPorta, Andrews, Kelce, Kittle not premium players? OG ya and those just happened to be the last 4 teams standing lasts years TEs. Where they were drafted doesn’t matter. Reed and Carter were both 5th rounders for example.

 

damn, mark andrews is so good he led his team to playoff wins in games he didn't even play in because of injury

[THE BARON]

Bowers is my man.  He's the one I want @ 10,   More so than Nabers or Odunze.  

Only Alt and MHJ would come before Bowers.

Grand slam draft

Round 1. Bowers

Round 3. Malachi Corey WR

Round 4. Roger Rosgarten OT

The rest.

Michael Pratt, Malik Mustapha, Trevor Keegan, Isaiah Davis

 

[jetblue95]

1 hour ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I'm agnostic on Bowers but I will say that the comparison is not just "Bowers vs WR we could get at #10 in the draft". 

It's also (though certainly not only):

What would be a better overall unit to put on the field?:

1) GW + MW + Bowers

2) GW + Drafted WR +Conklin

 

 

really it would be:

1) GW + MW + Bowers + whoever becomes WR3 (lazard or a later draft pick)

2) GW + drafted WR + MW + Conklin

of course, that assumes one of the top 3 WRs are available at 10.  if they are gone, the calculus changes, but then again, you would need to factor something like upgrading the o-line with a 1st rounder vs. a 3rd or 4th rounder (for argument's sake)

[derp]

10 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

If bowers isn’t great it’s going to hurt the TE draft market, since he’s really considered a can’t miss player.  For the TE future draftees he better be very good.  And I’m a fan, but not for the jets. 

I think he’s considered a can’t miss player here but not widely. And the line between very good and elite is an important one to draw. He should be very good but is getting billed by some like he’s a lock to be elite, or at least that’s what the narrative seems like.

[Lith]

12 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

@Maxman if we end up drafting Brock Bowers and he busts, does @Lith lose mod privileges?

[slats]

8 minutes ago, derp said:

I think tight end and running back will eventually correct towards wide receiver salaries.

I think what’s happened is that the RB market has already corrected. It’s not about production -top RBs produce more than top WRs- the problem is the (often correct) perception that they’re washed before the age of 30, and that quality replacement level players are available in every draft. Breece at pick #34 was a dramatically better pick than McCaffery at #5 or Saquon at #2, because his pay is a fraction of those guys but the production is right there. 
 
Like I said, I think TEs get the shaft. I think it’s an underpaid position. If we see the TE become more of a focal point across the league, maybe they’ll start seeing more money. But if I were the size/speed/strength of a top level TE, I’d probably focus on becoming an Edge, instead. 

[nycdan]

The same tired straight comparison of yards between TEs and WRs keeps getting thrown around here.  

I've said a few times before and apparently need to continue to.  That's like comparing CB sacks to DE sacks.  A much better way to look at TEs (and in fact all skill position players) is how much they contribute to extending drives that lead to points.  TEs are the guys you use on 2nd and long or 3rd and short to get the 1st down.  There is a metric on profootballreference.com called Success % that measures that pretty well.  A WR who gets 3 40 yard plays a game is a wonderful thing, but a TE who gets 8 receptions for 1st downs a game is probably more valuable.  You can argue all day that it's a coincidence that the most successful teams in football recently all have great TEs (Kelce, Andrews, Kittle, LaPorta, but at some point, the data will be hard to outshout.

TL/DR:  Tight Ends who extend drives are valuable.  The fact that they cost less than WRs is just the cherry on top.

 

[slats]

10 minutes ago, THE BARON said:

Bowers is my man.  He's the one I want @ 10,   More so than Nabers or Odunze.  

So I guess you’d’ve taken Pitts over Chase and Waddle, too? Yeah, no thanks. 

[nycdan]

8 minutes ago, jetblue95 said:

 

really it would be:

1) GW + MW + Bowers + whoever becomes WR3 (lazard or a later draft pick)

2) GW + drafted WR + MW + Conklin

of course, that assumes one of the top 3 WRs are available at 10.  if they are gone, the calculus changes, but then again, you would need to factor something like upgrading the o-line with a 1st rounder vs. a 3rd or 4th rounder (for argument's sake)

Does anyone think Gipson or Brownlee have a chance to continue developing into a reliable WR3 this year (with Rodgers throwing the ball)?

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, nycdan said:

Does anyone think Gipson or Brownlee have a chance to continue developing into a reliable WR3 this year (with Rodgers throwing the ball)?

Not if they take bowers.  

[The Crusher]

4 minutes ago, nycdan said:

The same tired straight comparison of yards between TEs and WRs keeps getting thrown around here.  

I've said a few times before and apparently need to continue to.  That's like comparing CB sacks to DE sacks.  A much better way to look at TEs (and in fact all skill position players) is how much they contribute to extending drives that lead to points.  TEs are the guys you use on 2nd and long or 3rd and short to get the 1st down.  There is a metric on profootballreference.com called Success % that measures that pretty well.  A WR who gets 3 40 yard plays a game is a wonderful thing, but a TE who gets 8 receptions for 1st downs a game is probably more valuable.  You can argue all day that it's a coincidence that the most successful teams in football recently all have great TEs (Kelce, Andrews, Kittle, LaPorta, but at some point, the data will be hard to outshout.

TL/DR:  Tight Ends who extend drives are valuable.  The fact that they cost less than WRs is just the cherry on top.

 

@Sperm Edwards called a summary fool! Thanks Dan Dan the lap man! 

[nycdan]

1 minute ago, slats said:

So I guess you’d’ve taken Pitts over Chase and Waddle, too? Yeah, no thanks. 

Agreed.  My mostly uninformed order of preference at the moment is any of Harrison, Nabers, Odunze (probably the one I am most intrigued by), then Bowers.  Then Alt.  Then any of the top OTs.  Then Thomas.  Totally subject to change but I do think those top-3 WRs are probably the way to go if we can get one.  Bowers would not be an awful consolation prize.

The scenario where 3 QBs, 3 WRs, Alt and Bowers all go before our pick makes me sad to contemplate.

[Lith]

4 minutes ago, nycdan said:

Does anyone think Gipson or Brownlee have a chance to continue developing into a reliable WR3 this year (with Rodgers throwing the ball)?

Do they have a chance?  Yes.  Should we count on it? No.  Especially with Williams coming off an ACL.  Whether it is R1 or R3 or FA, we still need to add another body or two at WR.  I love Bowers, but I would still rather see us get a guy like Odunze if he falls.

Odunze>>Trade Back>>OT>>Bowers.  In that order and I would be happy with any of these 4 outcomes.

[Augustiniak]

Just now, Lith said:

Do they have a chance?  Yes.  Should we count on it? No.  Especially with Williams coming off an ACL.  Whether it is R1 or R3 or FA, we still need to add another body or two at WR.  I love Bowers, but I would still rather see us get a guy like Odunze if he falls.

Odunze>>Trade Back>>OT>>Bowers.  In that order and I would be happy with any of these 4 outcomes.

Also the jets could go OL in round 1 and still get a guy like Roman wilson or Tony franklin.  

[RedBeardedSavage]

13 minutes ago, derp said:

The disconnect between the pro and anti Bowers is just a nice example of how polarizing he is. One side says he’s the greatest tight end prospect of all time and a Hall of Famer, the other points out he’s undersized and been schemed touches but not had crazy production, original side complains that’s nitpicking, and it’s kind of like listen if you’re going to fit him for a gold jacket that kind of stuff becomes fair game. Nobody’s saying he’s bad but the takes are a little hyperbolic.

That doesn’t mean I think Bowers is going to bust, I just think any push back is met with those who like him being incredulous and it doesn’t make for a good exchange.

Very well put.

At first, the comp was George Kittle, now Bowers is a Kelce/Gronk/Tony G.

[derp]

6 minutes ago, slats said:

I think what’s happened is that the RB market has already corrected. It’s not about production -top RBs produce more than top WRs- the problem is the (often correct) perception that they’re washed before the age of 30, and that quality replacement level players are available in every draft. Breece at pick #34 was a dramatically better pick than McCaffery at #5 or Saquon at #2, because his pay is a fraction of those guys but the production is right there. 
 
Like I said, I think TEs get the shaft. I think it’s an underpaid position. If we see the TE become more of a focal point across the league, maybe they’ll start seeing more money. But if I were the size/speed/strength of a top level TE, I’d probably focus on becoming an Edge, instead. 

I think it corrects back up from here, though. I’ll take Saquon at his price over Gabe Davis at his. Not to where it was before or taking guys top 5 (I think CMC went eighth) but up from where it was last offseason. Think it’s still already corrected some.

Will be an interesting conversation regarding Hall after this season. I hope they extend him.

Agree TE’s get the shaft and I think it’ll nudge up. One of the advantages from TE versus like iOL draft wise is that the iOL get clumped with the tackles for the fifth year option but the tight ends stay cheap.

[Lith]

2 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Also the jets could go OL in round 1 and still get a guy like Roman wilson or Tony franklin.  

Agreed. We have two major needs on this team right now, OL & WR.  Hopefully we solve for one at 10 and the other at 72.  Don't think Franklin will be around for R3, but a guy like Wilson seems like a high floor type prospect who would contribute in 2024.

[Claymation]

1 hour ago, slats said:

Like you said, we’re at an impasse. If Bowers is the pick, I’ll get behind it and hope he’s almost everything you think he might become. But no matter how wonderful and hardworking a human being he is, he’s never gonna be 6’6”-265. 

What’s to stop them from drafting a TE in the third round? Never mind, I’ll answer that: TE isn’t really a need on this team. WR, otoh, is. If one of the top three is there at #10, the team needs to pounce, imho. Another need is OL, a position Joe Douglas is clearly unafraid to draft high. If all the WRs are gone, that’s the direction I’d expect him to take. 

Conklin is average at best. He averaged 4 YAC 

for comparison, Kittle averaged 7.4 YAC

[Larz]

He is 

[Claymation]

2 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Very well put.

At first, the comp was George Kittle, now Bowers is a Kelce/Gronk/Tony G.

I haven't seen many comps outside of Kittle. Where are you seeing this?

Gronk and Tony Gonzalez is quite laughable. This has to be fan driven, nobody with any sense would claim that.

[slats]

2 minutes ago, Claymation said:

Conklin is average at best. He averaged 4 YAC per reception

Yeah, but Zach Kuntz is Antonio Gates waiting to happen. 

[Claymation]

1 minute ago, slats said:

Yeah, but Zach Kuntz is Antonio Gates waiting to happen. 

Well played

[Augustiniak]

5 minutes ago, Lith said:

Agreed. We have two major needs on this team right now, OL & WR.  Hopefully we solve for one at 10 and the other at 72.  Don't think Franklin will be around for R3, but a guy like Wilson seems like a high floor type prospect who would contribute in 2024.

If the jets can get a top wr then i can see them taking him and going developmental tackle in round 3, b/c of the value.  But taking bowers and then not having a 2nd round pick is difficult to justify, esp. if the OL has an injury and they’re having trouble running the ball.  I would be surprised if they picked bowers at 10, maybe in a trade back