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Official JN Schottenheimer Discussion Thread

Irish Jet

By Irish Jet
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ZachEY

ZachEY

Posted
Posted

It is, but does it really matter? Good or bad, Sanchez is probably the Jets QB for at least two more years. Meanwhile, 5 years in Schotty still sucks beyond belief and has had dozens of players scapegoated for his benefit. The guy deserved to be fired before Mark Sanchez was even a New York Jet, so I won't feel even slightly bad if Sanchez is what ultimately gets him fired.

Consider it like the Pennington situation. The guy got dumped for only one reason, Brett Favre, but he should've been gone long before that, so who cares? I celebrate Favre for ridding us of that albatross and I'll do the same for Sanchez if he rids us of this douche-nozzle. The bottom line is this guy deserves to be fired, and it could be for shoplifting a pack of gum for all I give a sh*t, just as long as it happens.

Of course it doesn't matter.

Nothing that's ever happened in the history of Jets message boards has ever mattered though.

Except that one time Ham banned me.

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JerryK

JerryK

Posted
Posted

Did Schotty cut Faneca?

"bench sanchez" "Fire schotty" "put glue on Holmes' fingers" ..this is superficial.

Our problem is a boil on the Jets' a$$ that never goes away because they never go to the root of it: Cutting your best linemen to pay ANYONE else will never work.

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SMC

SMC

Posted
Posted

Bench Sanchez for who?? You really think this offense is better off with Brunell or Clemens?

Exactly.

Plus, the remainder of this team isn't good enough to win without Sanchez playing well.

In other words, the best Jets team is the one where Sanchez is a playmaker. Brunell and Clemens aren't playmakers.

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jason423

jason423

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This is bizarrely and completely wrong. The reason number of starts is important is that it ensures that your scouting is based upon a sufficiently large sample that you can be confident in its conclusions. The fact that you think you can (or, more accurately, the fact that Tannenbaum and Rex thought they could) just substitute a snap judgment on a dude's maturity or whatever amorphous limpwristed claptrap you prefer to numbers and facts as a basis for evaluation is the whole reason you and everybody else who thought they could talk their way out of Lewin on Sanchez is eating sh*t right now.

I have no problem with statistical evaluation and would say that unless something drastic changes these next few weeks his track is not going to be with a positive set of players, but I cant buy that the magic college forecast should preclude a team from taking him. In recent years Lewin has been wildly wrong on Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Matt Leinart.It was probably wrong on Kevin Kolb and I think it was wildly off on John Beck, but I could be off on his starts and may have him confused with some others they talked about. for the most part 2nd round QBs are so bad its probably not worth projecting them. Its been dead on about Alex Smith and Jamarcus Russell and probably gave a fair projection on Jay Cutler. It was off on the Brady Quinn projection, but never expected Quinn to be anything more than maybe passable anyway. But there are more than enough misses that its not just one or two exceptions to the rule. Its more than that. The one area where it probably is never going to be wrong is with the QBs who dont have the starts or the completion percentage, but that should just be a logical jump anyway. The guys havent shown the ability to excel and are going to have to learn to do it under a great deal of scrutiny at the NFL level. Thats a tough situation to succeed in.

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ThisYearsModel

ThisYearsModel

Posted
Posted

I'm pretty sure the defense is close to giving up. The offense plays like it has given up, hell, maybe it already did.

Rex is dangerously close to losing this team. If you fire Schotty that at least shows you admit there was a major problem with the coaching and changes needed to be made. If you don't do that, I don't see how you have any benefit of the doubt.

What did you call what the defense did last Monday night? They waived the white flag early in Foxboro.

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dbatesman

dbatesman

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Posted

I have no problem with statistical evaluation and would say that unless something drastic changes these next few weeks his track is not going to be with a positive set of players, but I cant buy that the magic college forecast should preclude a team from taking him. In recent years Lewin has been wildly wrong on Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Matt Leinart.It was probably wrong on Kevin Kolb and I think it was wildly off on John Beck, but I could be off on his starts and may have him confused with some others they talked about. for the most part 2nd round QBs are so bad its probably not worth projecting them. Its been dead on about Alex Smith and Jamarcus Russell and probably gave a fair projection on Jay Cutler. It was off on the Brady Quinn projection, but never expected Quinn to be anything more than maybe passable anyway. But there are more than enough misses that its not just one or two exceptions to the rule. Its more than that. The one area where it probably is never going to be wrong is with the QBs who dont have the starts or the completion percentage, but that should just be a logical jump anyway. The guys havent shown the ability to excel and are going to have to learn to do it under a great deal of scrutiny at the NFL level. Thats a tough situation to succeed in.

Lewin gets way out over his skis with individual projections. The system is really only useful as a general guideline and can't replace actual scouting. Even with that caveat, the numbers on guys at the low end of the spectrum are not good. Drafting a guy with 16 collegiate starts is not all that different from drafting a sub-50% passer like Kyle Boller. Either way you're essentially ignoring the metrics and crossing your fingers.

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Aten

Aten

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Posted
I cant buy that the magic college forecast should preclude a team from taking him.

That's fine. It would be massively stupid to suggest that the forecast is something you can just plug numbers into and have it tell you whether a quarterback is going to be good or not without having to think about it, which I can only assume is the reason you've decided to use said proposition as a straw man. The starts aren't the mean, they're the variance. You just can't project a guy with sixteen starts with sufficient certainty to drop a top five pick on him. If Lewin produced an output, for Sanchez it would be 'somewhere between Drew Brees and Danny Wuerffel,' which isn't especially useful information. It's no different in kind than watching a guy throw literally one pass and then declaring that you've seen all you need to see, only in degree.

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ECURB

ECURB

Posted
Posted

Did Schotty cut Faneca?

"bench sanchez" "Fire schotty" "put glue on Holmes' fingers" ..this is superficial.

Our problem is a boil on the Jets' a$ that never goes away because they never go to the root of it: Cutting your best linemen to pay ANYONE else will never work.

Really? Have you watched a single JETS game in the last 3 years?

You Fail.

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jason423

jason423

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Posted

Lewin gets way out over his skis with individual projections. The system is really only useful as a general guideline and can't replace actual scouting. Even with that caveat, the numbers on guys at the low end of the spectrum are not good. Drafting a guy with 16 collegiate starts is not all that different from drafting a sub-50% passer like Kyle Boller. Either way you're essentially ignoring the metrics and crossing your fingers.

I wouldnt even disagree with that which is why those starts to me indicate a maturity level of being able to handle the league or not be able to handle it. I dont think it has anything to do with being able to have an adequate sample size to watch. I mean a guy throwing 60%+ at a big time program is not suddenly going to regress to a sub 60% guy as a junior and senior- those programs are designed to be football factories. This is why the forecast relies on scouting to identify 1st and 2nd round prospects, because if you did not you would have guys liek Timmy Chang projecting to be HOFers. The low starts are a reason to keep guys like Sanchez on the bench their rookie years and let them develop. Thats probably the main difference between Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith. As a rookie Smith throw something like 150 passes in 6 or 7 starts.If Rodgers was thrown into the fire like that he probably would have ended up in the same situation. Vick is probably another guy that would fit into that same category. Now he has an entirely different skillset that kept him in a starting role and away from heavy criticism (on the field), but it took him years to develop as a passer.

Sanchez had a unique situation in that he came to a good team and the team made the playoffs which maybe helped him escape the intense pressure a guy like Smith faces, but with so much expected of him by the fans and media its going to diminish his chances for success. In hindsight, and clearly the book isnt written yet so this isnt set in stone, the Jets should have sat him last year and never geared up the way they did this season. He is probably going to fall well short of the improvement most of the elite QBs show between year 1 and 2 the way things are going and its probably going to mean he is sunk. My projections based on 28 or so years of rookies was

58%, 210 YPG, 18TD, 19 Int, Rating between 71 and 73. which would be average growth. Odds are he will come close to this depending on what the coordinator does. Hes going to fall short in completion percentage but that is made up for by the big throws and lower than expected interceptions.

The high end projection, which is where almost all the good ones track would have been:

60%, 235 YPG, 21 TD 18 INTs, QB rating 80-82. Clearly he is going to fall way short of that.

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dbatesman

dbatesman

Posted
Posted

I wouldnt even disagree with that which is why those starts to me indicate a maturity level of being able to handle the league or not be able to handle it. I dont think it has anything to do with being able to have an adequate sample size to watch. I mean a guy throwing 60%+ at a big time program is not suddenly going to regress to a sub 60% guy as a junior and senior- those programs are designed to be football factories. This is why the forecast relies on scouting to identify 1st and 2nd round prospects, because if you did not you would have guys liek Timmy Chang projecting to be HOFers. The low starts are a reason to keep guys like Sanchez on the bench their rookie years and let them develop. Thats probably the main difference between Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith. As a rookie Smith throw something like 150 passes in 6 or 7 starts.If Rodgers was thrown into the fire like that he probably would have ended up in the same situation. Vick is probably another guy that would fit into that same category. Now he has an entirely different skillset that kept him in a starting role and away from heavy criticism (on the field), but it took him years to develop as a passer.

But it does have something to do with the sample size. The fact that the numbers don't regress makes the additional film even more important because it sheds light on non-quantifiable attributes, be they physical (arm strength in adverse weather) or mental (responses to a terrible INT). With such a limited sample, you have to extrapolate individual plays across a standard college career of 35+ games, which is how you end up handpicking your franchise based on how big he smiles at his pro day. I mean, Sanchez never led a 4th-quarter comeback at USC. The Detroit and Cleveland and Houston games suggest he's not entirely uncomfortable in that situation, but how the hell could the Jets have known that?

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JustInFudge

JustInFudge

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But it does have something to do with the sample size. The fact that the numbers don't regress makes the additional film even more important because it sheds light on non-quantifiable attributes, be they physical (arm strength in adverse weather) or mental (responses to a terrible INT). With such a limited sample, you have to extrapolate individual plays across a standard college career of 35+ games, which is how you end up handpicking your franchise based on how big he smiles at his pro day. I mean, Sanchez never led a 4th-quarter comeback at USC. The Detroit and Cleveland and Houston games suggest he's not entirely uncomfortable in that situation, but how the hell could the Jets have known that?

Which was my biggest issue with drafting him and why I wanted to stay far far away. He's never dealt with this type of pressure. There was no adversity. He was always up against an inferior opponent every time he took the field. He never had to will his team to victory. And most games were walk away blow outs. The only games that was close in college, he lost.

Its a mind **** because he has willed the Jets to victory while still having those mind blowing terrible games.

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Integrity28

Integrity28

Posted
Posted

Out on a limb? Sure.

Will they fire him? Probably not.

Wishful thinking? Yup.

This organization is mired in a LOT of bad PR right now. Rex doesn't lose well, he and Sanchez are the investment. This catastrophe is not what Woody shelled out the money for. He finally starts spending money on this team and the same results get thrown back in his lap. We haven't heard a peep from the front office or Rex... something is brewing.

Lets all hope that it is a smart and dignified football decision. I'm so tired of this team being the team that never handles sh*t right.

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visajets

visajets

Posted
Posted

They wont fire him...not a chance...and I think the fact they are both sons of former NFL HC's is a big reason.

Maybe they strip him of play calling (which IMO is what they should do) but I just dont see him firing B Schitt. No way.

I disagree. There has to be a scapegoat for all this mess. The strength coach wont do it. Rex and Tanne need to save face. Schotty is as good as gone sooner than later.

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JustInFudge

JustInFudge

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I disagree. There has to be a scapegoat for all this mess. The strength coach wont do it. Rex and Tanne need to save face. Schotty is as good as gone sooner than later.

He might get fired, but not in week 15. Maybe in the offseason.

Firing him serves no purpose IMO. What good comes from it? The offense isnt going to make a 180. We still will have a sh*tty QB, terrible protection, sh*tty RB's and players that cant catch the ball.

Strip him of play calling duties. Firing him isnt a good thing especially if you are going to go after a real OC in the offseason. Nobody wants to coach for a HC that uses his assistants as scapegoats.

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Integrity28

Integrity28

Posted
Posted

Prediction: MonkeyBrains starts 6 more threads about schitty by season end

I don't really start many threads about him... don't need to, to be honest.

I used to start a lot of threads about him on JI, 4 years ago when I realized he was detriment to the team. But now... everyone has caught up, so they start the threads.

Anyway, if I'm right today - then I get to be the guy who called it. If not, then whatever... another thread that will dissipate into the black hole of the interwebz...

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